CN107967522A - A kind of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering Cost Management System and its control method - Google Patents

A kind of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering Cost Management System and its control method Download PDF

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CN107967522A
CN107967522A CN201711189752.7A CN201711189752A CN107967522A CN 107967522 A CN107967522 A CN 107967522A CN 201711189752 A CN201711189752 A CN 201711189752A CN 107967522 A CN107967522 A CN 107967522A
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徐立新
罗汉武
田桂申
林延平
张俊双
王树强
刘中明
刘阜阳
吴雪莲
王昌君
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Hefei Technology Innovation Engineering Institute of CAS
East Inner Mongolia Electric Power Co Ltd
State Grid Eastern Inner Mongolia Power Co Ltd
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State Grid Eastern Inner Mongolia Power Co Ltd
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Abstract

The present invention relates to a kind of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering Cost Management System and its control method, solves the defects of engineering cost is difficult to effectively manage compared with prior art.The present invention comprises the following steps：Determine the item dividing of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering project；The analysis of the bill of quantities cost data of history engineering different phase and different engineering same stages；The structure and similarity measure of similarity matrix；Quantitatively calculate and predict；Forecast cost is adjusted according to actual conditions, until prediction result is consistent with the predetermined condition of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering.The present invention can be using list valuation model as forecasting of cost point of penetration, realize the Rapid input of related data in cost management in power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering, improve the work efficiency and accuracy rate of forecasting of cost.

Description

A kind of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering Cost Management System and its control method
Technical field
The present invention relates to data analysis technique field, a kind of specifically power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering Cost Management System And its control method.
Background technology
Cost management be electric power enterprise control cost expenditure important means, the major repair project cost management of electric power technological transformation at present System imperfection, method is relatively backward, using norm pricing method, it is impossible to adapts to marketing reconstruction needs, and norm for detailed estimates item Purpose is divided differs larger with items of cost division when Practical Project technological transformation overhaul arrangement, cost planning, adds many links, There are many deficiency factors, so that a series of problems, such as causing the inaccuracy of cost planning, the not science of cost management.
It is bright with market price progress cost budgeting using comprehensive unit price and bill of quantities is as brand-new pricing mode The consumption in kind of technology innovation project and other related expenses are really reflected in detail, include artificial, material, machinery, administration fee And profit, the separation of the amount of having the characteristics that valency are respectively carried on a shoulder pole with risk, adjusted easy to contract price.
So, how bill of quantities is applied to the technology in the technology of cost management having become and being badly in need of solving to ask Topic.
The content of the invention
The purpose of the present invention is to solve the defects of engineering cost is difficult to effectively manage in the prior art, there is provided Yi Zhong electricity Net technological transformation overhaul engineering Cost Management System and its control method solve the above problems.
To achieve these goals, technical scheme is as follows：
A kind of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering Cost Management System, including engineering cost information management program, cost analysis journey Sequence, forecasting of cost program, comprehensive inquiry program and basic information management program,
The engineering cost information management program is used for typing or imports the cost information of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering；
The cost analysis program is used to carry out the cost information of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering vertical analysis, laterally divides Analysis, including vertical analysis module and horizontal analysis module, horizontal analysis module are used for the clear of the different phase of analysis of history engineering Single cost data, vertical analysis module are used to analyze inventory cost data of the different engineerings in same stage；
The forecasting of cost program is used to carry out engineering classification according to vertical analysis and horizontal analysis result, builds similar work Journey, carries out Sinilar engineering forecasting of cost and result exports；
The comprehensive inquiry program is used to inquiring about, generate and exporting various analysis of prices reports, cost analysis/observe and predict in advance Table, system provide corresponding report according to different querying conditions, and the report form type of output is according to file content formal character；
Various databases, setting Forecasting Methodology and the authority that the basic information management program is used for needed for management system are set Put, the management of database is included to the basic data such as bill of quantities java standard library, quota store, main material storehouse and accessory storehouse or equipment library The newly-increased of storehouse, modification, delete, import and export.
A kind of control method of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering Cost Management System, comprises the following steps：
The item dividing of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering project is determined, according to item dividing, utilizing works cost information management Program is collected from corresponding external system and the cost information of all kinds of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineerings of typing, gets power grid technological transformation The cost control key element of overhaul engineering and the cost element based on bill of quantities；
The analysis of the bill of quantities cost data of history engineering different phase and different engineering same stages, according to power grid The cost control key element of technological transformation overhaul engineering and the cost element based on bill of quantities, using horizontal analysis module to history work The cost data of the bill of quantities of journey different phase is analyzed, using vertical analysis module to different engineerings in same stage The cost data of bill of quantities analyzed；
The structure and similarity measure of similarity matrix, utilize forecasting of cost program construction character type similarity matrix sum number Font similarity matrix, carries out engineering classification using different similarity calculating methods according to the different type of similarity matrix, obtains Obtain the result of calculation of the similarity degree of similar technological transformation overhaul engineering；
Quantitatively calculate and predict, according to the result of calculation of similarity, using the quantitative side for calculating and being combined with qualitative analysis Method, carries out forecasting of cost to the cost of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering stage by stage, exports prediction result；
Forecast cost is adjusted according to actual conditions, until prediction result and the default feelings of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering Condition is consistent.
Described divides the cost data of the bill of quantities of history engineering different phase using horizontal analysis module Analysis comprises the following steps：
The horizontal analysis collected for engineering cost, with sequence number and the entitled tree node of expense, expense title includes dividing Subitem engineering cost, second for buying accessory/fee of material or technology innovation project second for buying equipment/fee of material, first for buying accessory/ The first of fee of material or technology innovation project is for buying equipment/fee of material, measure item cost, sundry item take, set-fee and tax, for skill Change engineering, further include buying installation cost, Layering manifestation estimated cost, contract cost, actual cost, cost change and cost are inclined Difference, is total cost in this cost；
The horizontal analysis collected for branch's subitem expense, with sequence number and the entitled tree node of expense, technological transformation overhaul work The expense title of journey is taken and equipment technological transformation overhaul expense including building repair, the expense title of technology innovation project include architectural engineering expense, Installing engineering expense and projects take, Layering manifestation estimated cost, contract cost, actual cost, cost change and costvariation, It is conjunction valency in this cost, and divides labour cost, fee of material, machinery cost, administration fee and profit to show；
Horizontal analysis for part-to-item project amount inventory expense detail, with project code, item in branch's subitem inventory The entitled tree node of mesh, Layering manifestation measurement unit, estimated cost, contract cost and actual cost, estimated cost include budget Valency is closed in quantity, budgetary unit price, budget, and contract cost includes contract quantity, unit price, contract and closes valency, and actual cost includes actual number Measure, actual unit price, actual conjunction valency, cost change further includes unit price change, the change of conjunction valency, and costvariation includes unit value bias, conjunction valency Deviation；, can be further by unit price and the detailed display of conjunction valency when display is detailed, unit price and conjunction valency detail are by labour cost, fee of material, machine Tool takes, administration fee and reward structure；
Match somebody with somebody for second of the second for buying material/accessory valuation or technology innovation project for buying equipment/materials valuation, first for buying The first of part/materials valuation and technology innovation project supplies the horizontal analysis of buying equipment/material, with specific material/accessory or technological transformation work The entitled tree node of equipment/material of journey, Layering manifestation unit, estimated cost, contract cost and actual cost, estimated cost Close valency including budgeted number, budgetary unit price, budget, contract cost includes contract quantity, unit contract price, contract and closes valency, it is actual into This includes actual quantity, actual unit price, reality and closes valency, and cost, which becomes, to be further included quantity change, unit price changes and close valency change, cost Deviation includes volume deviation, unit value bias and closes valency deviation；
Horizontal analysis for measure item and other item bill, with specific measure project name, other The entitled tree node of mesh, Layering manifestation estimated cost, contract cost, actual cost, cost change and costvariation, here into This is all conjunction valency.
Described carries out the cost data of bill of quantities of the different engineerings in same stage using vertical analysis module Analysis comprises the following steps：
The vertical analysis collected for engineering, the division of labor journey 1, engineering 2 ..., engineering n collect each engineering estimated cost, close Same cost, actual cost, cost change and costvariation, are total cost in this cost；
The vertical analysis collected for engineering cost, division of labor journey 1, engineering 2 ..., engineering n collect the branch point of each engineering Item engineering cost, second supply buying accessory/material for the second of buying accessory/fee of material or technology innovation project for buying equipment/fee of material, first Take or the first of technology innovation project is for buying equipment/fee of material, measure item cost, sundry item expense, set-fee and each total cost of tax；
For the vertical analysis that collects of branch's subitem expense, division of labor journey 1, engineering 2 ..., engineering n collect point of each engineering Subitem engineering cost total value, and divide labour cost, fee of material, machinery cost, administration fee and profit to show；
It is detailed for part-to-item project amount inventory expense, division of labor journey 1, engineering 2 ..., engineering n show that each engineering is each Branch's subitem inventory detail expense, including measurement unit, quantity, comprehensive unit price and conjunction valency；
For second for the second of buying material/accessory valuation or technology innovation project for purchasing equipment/fee of material valuation, first for buying Vertical analysis of the first of accessory/materials valuation or technology innovation project for buying equipment/fee of material：Divide the work journey 1, engineering 2 ..., engineering n Show measurement unit, quantity, unit price and the conjunction valency of specific material/accessory or equipment/material of technology innovation project；
Vertical analysis for measure item and other item bill, the division of labor journey 1, engineering 2 ..., engineering n display tool Measure project, the total cost of sundry item of body.
The structure and similarity measure of the similarity matrix comprise the following steps：
According to BOQ content, character type similarity matrix and numeric type similarity matrix are built stage by stage,
The character type similarity matrix is made of bill of quantities item and its character type attribute, and general formula is B (A × M),
Wherein, A is the character type attribute of bill of quantities item, includes the qualitative description and rule of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering Description, M is bill of quantities item；
The numeric type similarity matrix is made of bill of quantities item and its Numeric Attributes, and general formula is N (D × M),
Wherein, D is bill of quantities item Numeric Attributes, including quantities and project cost, M are bill of quantities item；
Different similarity matrixs calculates similarity with corresponding method：
The similarity calculating method of character type similarity matrix is：
According to the general formula of character type similarity matrix, the model character type similarity matrix B of engineering project to be analyzed is builtt With reference engineering project model character type similarity matrix Bt"；
To any bill of quantities item, similarity is calculated：
Wherein,It is bill of quantities item for the similarity of the character type attribute of identical bill of quantities item Intersection and union ratio；sim(Bt,Bt″) it is BtWith Bt"Similarity, for all bill of quantities item character type similarities Average；C (M) represents bill of quantities item number；
The similarity calculating method of numeric type similarity matrix is：
According to the general formula of character type similarity matrix, engineering project model value type matrix N to be analyzed is builttWith with reference to work Journey project model character type matrix Nt″；
To any bill of quantities item, similarity is calculated：
Wherein,For the similarity of the Numeric Attributes of identical bill of quantities item, to utilize the cosine law Solve numeric type similarity；sim(Nt,Nt″) it is NtWith Nt′Similarity, asked for all bill of quantities item numeric type similarities Average；C (M) represents bill of quantities item number.
The method of the quantitative calculating is Smoothness Index predicted method, specifically includes following steps：
The calculating of technological transformation overhaul engineering cost is estimated, its calculation formula is as follows：
yi=Di-1+(1-α)yi-1,
yiThe cost of technological transformation overhaul engineering is estimated in expression,
yi-1Represent the prediction cost of Sinilar engineering in historical data base,
Di-1Represent the actual building cost of Sinilar engineering in historical data base,
α is equilibrium index；
The calculating of branch's subitem inventory Cost Forecast value,
If the history actual building cost of i-th of similar technological transformation overhaul engineering is Pi, predicted value Pi *, it predicts that error is Pi- Pi *, then branch's subitem inventory Cost Forecast value of the i-th -1 Sinilar engineering be：
Branch's subitem inventory Cost Forecast value of i-th of Sinilar engineering is modified, αiFor similarity degree, by similar Calculation formula is spent to obtain；
Estimate the forecasting of cost values such as each branch subitem, the measure project of engineering：
For the formula average value of the actual costs such as n typical Sinilar engineering segment analysis inventory, measure project, it is expressed Formula is as follows：
Beneficial effect
A kind of the power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering Cost Management System and its control method of the present invention, compared with prior art can Enough points of penetration using list valuation model as forecasting of cost, are realized related in cost management in power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering The Rapid input of data, improves the work efficiency and accuracy rate of forecasting of cost.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the method precedence diagram of the present invention.
Embodiment
The effect of to make to architectural feature of the invention and being reached, has a better understanding and awareness, to preferable Embodiment and attached drawing coordinate detailed description, are described as follows：
A kind of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering Cost Management System of the present invention, including engineering cost information management journey Sequence, cost analysis program, forecasting of cost program, comprehensive inquiry program and basic information management program.
Engineering cost information management program is used for typing or imports the cost information of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering, power grid technological transformation The cost information of overhaul engineering includes estimated cost, contract cost and actual cost, and estimated cost includes bill of quantities and base In the bid contrul valency of bill of quantities, contract cost is the bid price or contract price of bid winner, and actual cost is power grid technological transformation The bill of quantities data that overhaul engineering is finally settled accounts.
Cost analysis program is used to carry out the cost information of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering vertical analysis, horizontal analysis, bag Vertical analysis module and horizontal analysis module are included, horizontal analysis module is used for the inventory cost of the different phase of analysis of history engineering Data, vertical analysis module are used to analyze inventory cost data of the different engineerings in same stage.
Forecasting of cost program is used to carry out engineering classification according to vertical analysis and horizontal analysis result, builds Sinilar engineering, Forecasting of cost and result export are carried out to Sinilar engineering.
Comprehensive inquiry program is used to inquiring about, generate and exporting various analysis of prices reports, cost analysis/pro forma statement, is System provides corresponding report according to different querying conditions, and querying condition further includes project number, project name, identical inventory specific item Feature, the report form type of output is according to file content formal character.
Basic information management program is used for various databases, setting Forecasting Methodology and priority assignation needed for management system, The management of database is included to the basic database such as bill of quantities java standard library, quota store, main material storehouse and accessory storehouse or equipment library Newly-increased, modification, delete, import and export.
As shown in Figure 1, a kind of control method of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering Cost Management System, comprises the following steps：
The first step, determines the item dividing of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering project.According to item dividing, utilizing works cost letter Breath management program is collected from corresponding external system and the cost information of all kinds of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineerings of typing, gets electricity The cost control key element of net technological transformation overhaul engineering and the cost element based on bill of quantities.
Item dividing includes substation project, converter station project, series compensation station engineering, communication station engineering, overhead transmission line Engineering, cable run engineering, communication line engineering, utilizing works cost information management program are collected from corresponding external system With all kinds of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering cost informations of typing, including estimated cost is imported from exterior budgeting system, from Contract cost is imported in exterior Tender System, actual cost is imported from external settlement system, or according to power grid technological transformation overhaul Each stage bill of quantities data of engineering insert actual cost by hand；For each engineering, sub-budget cost, contract cost and Actual cost lists engineering cost information respectively, and the engineering cost information collects including engineering cost, branch's subitem expense is converged Always, part-to-item project amount inventory expense is detailed, bidder purchases material/accessory valuation or bidder's buying of technology innovation project is set Accessory/materials valuation is purchased in standby/fee of material valuation, bid inviter or the bid inviter of technology innovation project purchases equipment/fee of material valuation, work Journey amount inventory comprehensive unit price talent unit, measure item and other project lists.
Second step, according to the cost control key element of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering and the cost element based on bill of quantities, The cost data of the bill of quantities of history engineering different phase is analyzed using horizontal analysis module, utilizes vertical analysis Module analyzes cost data of the different engineerings in the bill of quantities of same stage.
Wherein, the cost data of the bill of quantities of history engineering different phase is analyzed using horizontal analysis module Method be：Identify project and divide content, voltage class, the project time limit, a certain engineering is selected, respectively to different historical Engineering cost collects, branch's subitem expense collects, part-to-item project amount inventory expense is detailed, second is for buying material/accessory meter The second of valency or technology innovation project is for buying equipment/materials valuation, first for the first of buying accessory/materials valuation or technology innovation project for buying The cost data of equipment/materials valuation, measure item and other project lists carries out horizontal analysis, as a result with analysis table Form show.It is comprised the following steps that：
(1) horizontal analysis collected for engineering cost, is included with sequence number and the entitled tree node of expense, expense title Part-to-item project expense, second are matched somebody with somebody for the second of buying accessory/fee of material or technology innovation project for buying equipment/fee of material, first for buying The first of part/fee of material or technology innovation project is for buying equipment/fee of material, measure item cost, sundry item take, set-fee and tax, right In technology innovation project, buying installation cost, Layering manifestation estimated cost, contract cost, actual cost, cost change and cost are further included Deviation, is total cost in this cost；
(2) horizontal analysis collected for branch's subitem expense, with sequence number and the entitled tree node of expense, technological transformation overhaul The expense title of engineering is taken including building repair and equipment technological transformation overhaul expense, the expense title of technology innovation project include architectural engineering Take, installing engineering expense and projects expense, Layering manifestation estimated cost, contract cost, actual cost, cost change and cost are inclined Difference, is conjunction valency in this cost, and divides labour cost, fee of material, machinery cost, administration fee and profit to show；
(3) for the horizontal analysis of part-to-item project amount inventory expense detail, with branch itemize project code in inventory, Project name is tree node, and Layering manifestation measurement unit, estimated cost, contract cost and actual cost, estimated cost includes pre- Valency is closed in the amount of counting, budgetary unit price, budget, and contract cost includes contract quantity, unit price, contract and closes valency, and actual cost includes actual Quantity, actual unit price, actual conjunction valency, cost change further include unit price change, the change of conjunction valency, and costvariation includes unit value bias, conjunction Valency deviation；When display is detailed, by unit price and the detailed display of valency further can be closed, unit price and close valency detail by labour cost, fee of material, Machinery cost, administration fee and reward structure；
(4) buying equipment/materials valuation, first are supplied for adopting for the second of buying material/accessory valuation or technology innovation project for second The first for purchasing accessory/materials valuation and technology innovation project supplies to purchase the horizontal analysis of equipment/material, with specific material/accessory or skill Change the entitled tree node of equipment/material of engineering, Layering manifestation unit, estimated cost, contract cost and actual cost, budget Cost includes budgeted number, budgetary unit price, budget conjunction valency, and contract cost includes contract quantity, unit contract price, contract and closes valency, real Border cost includes actual quantity, actual unit price, actual conjunction valency, and cost, which becomes, further includes quantity change, unit price change and conjunction valency change, Costvariation includes volume deviation, unit value bias and closes valency deviation；
(5) for the horizontal analysis of measure item and other item bill, with specific measure project name, other Project name is tree node, Layering manifestation estimated cost, contract cost, actual cost, cost change and costvariation, here Cost is all conjunction valency.
Wherein, cost data of the different engineerings in the bill of quantities of same stage is divided using vertical analysis module Analysis, Sinilar engineering is collected together, prepare for structure prediction model, method is by building similarity matrix：Determine item Mesh division content, voltage class, the project time limit, are converged the different engineerings of same stage by engineering using vertical analysis software Always, engineering cost collects, branch's subitem expense collects, part-to-item project amount inventory expense is detailed, second is for buying material/accessory Or technology innovation project second for buying equipment/material, first for buying accessory/materials valuation or technology innovation project first for buying equipment/ Material, measure item and other project lists carry out vertical analysis, are as a result shown in the form of analysis table；Wherein, work Journey collects collects display by the estimated cost, contract cost and actual cost of each engineering, other to be all divided into budget, construction, clearing Three phases, show using the three phases as tree node, and the budget stage show estimated cost, the construction stage show contract into This, accounts settling phase shows actual cost, cost change and costvariation.It is comprised the following steps that：
(1) vertical analysis collected for engineering, the division of labor journey 1, engineering 2 ..., engineering n collect each engineering estimated cost, Contract cost, actual cost, cost change and costvariation, are total cost in this cost；
(2) vertical analysis collected for engineering cost, the division of labor journey 1, engineering 2 ..., engineering n collect each engineering point Subitem engineering cost, second for buying accessory/fee of material or technology innovation project second for buying equipment/fee of material, first for buying accessory/ The first of fee of material or technology innovation project is for buying equipment/fee of material, measure item cost, sundry item take, set-fee and each expense of tax Total value；
(3) for the vertical analysis that collects of branch's subitem expense, division of labor journey 1, engineering 2 ..., engineering n collect each engineering Part-to-item project total cost, and divide labour cost, fee of material, machinery cost, administration fee and profit to show；
(4) it is detailed for part-to-item project amount inventory expense, division of labor journey 1, engineering 2 ..., engineering n show each engineering Each branch's subitem inventory detail expense, including measurement unit, quantity, comprehensive unit price and conjunction valency；
(5) supplied for second for the second of buying material/accessory valuation or technology innovation project for buying equipment/fee of material valuation, first The first for purchasing accessory/materials valuation or technology innovation project supplies to purchase the vertical analysis of equipment/fee of material：Divide the work journey 1, engineering 2 ..., Engineering n shows measurement unit, quantity, unit price and the conjunction valency of specific material/accessory or equipment/material of technology innovation project；
(6) for the vertical analysis of measure item and other item bill, division of labor journey 1, engineering 2 ..., engineering n shows Show specific measure project, the total cost of sundry item.
3rd step, the structure and similarity measure of similarity matrix.Utilize forecasting of cost program construction character type similarity Matrix and numeric type similarity matrix, engineering is carried out according to the different type of similarity matrix using different similarity calculating methods Sort out, obtain the result of calculation of the similarity degree of similar technological transformation overhaul engineering.It is comprised the following steps that：
(1) according to BOQ content, character type similarity matrix and numeric type similarity matrix are built stage by stage,
The character type similarity matrix is made of bill of quantities item and its character type attribute, and general formula is B (A × M),
Wherein, A is the character type attribute of bill of quantities item, includes the qualitative description and rule of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering Description, M is bill of quantities item；
The numeric type similarity matrix is made of bill of quantities item and its Numeric Attributes, and general formula is N (D × M),
Wherein, D is bill of quantities item Numeric Attributes, including quantities and project cost, M are bill of quantities item；
(2) different similarity matrixs calculates similarity with corresponding method：
A, the similarity calculating method of character type similarity matrix is：
According to the general formula of character type similarity matrix, the model character type similarity matrix B of engineering project to be analyzed is builtt With reference engineering project model character type similarity matrix Bt"；
To any bill of quantities item, similarity is calculated：
Wherein,It is bill of quantities item for the similarity of the character type attribute of identical bill of quantities item Intersection and union ratio；sim(Bt,Bt″) it is BtWith Bt"Similarity, for all bill of quantities item character type similarities Average；C (M) represents bill of quantities item number；
B, the similarity calculating method of numeric type similarity matrix is：
According to the general formula of character type similarity matrix, engineering project model value type matrix N to be analyzed is builttWith with reference to work Journey project model character type matrix Nt″；
To any bill of quantities item, similarity is calculated：
Wherein,For the similarity of the Numeric Attributes of identical bill of quantities item, to utilize the cosine law Solve numeric type similarity；sim(Nt,Nt″) it is NtWith Nt′Similarity, asked for all bill of quantities item numeric type similarities Average；C (M) represents bill of quantities item number.
4th step, quantitatively calculates and predicts.According to the result of calculation of similarity, mutually tied with qualitative analysis using quantitative calculating The method of conjunction, carries out forecasting of cost to the cost of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering stage by stage, exports prediction result.Wherein, quantitative scoring The method of calculation can be Smoothness Index predicted method, it comprises the following steps：
(1) calculating of technological transformation overhaul engineering cost is estimated, its calculation formula is as follows：
yi=Di-1+(1-α)yi-1,
yiThe cost of technological transformation overhaul engineering is estimated in expression,
yi-1Represent the prediction cost of Sinilar engineering in historical data base,
Di-1Represent the actual building cost of Sinilar engineering in historical data base,
α is equilibrium index.
(2) calculating of branch's subitem inventory Cost Forecast value,
If the history actual building cost of i-th of similar technological transformation overhaul engineering is Pi, predicted value Pi *, it predicts that error is Pi- Pi *, then branch's subitem inventory Cost Forecast value of the i-th -1 Sinilar engineering be：
Branch's subitem inventory Cost Forecast value of i-th of Sinilar engineering is modified, αiFor similarity degree, by similar Calculation formula is spent to obtain；
Estimate the forecasting of cost values such as each branch subitem, the measure project of engineering：
For the formula average value of the actual costs such as n typical Sinilar engineering segment analysis inventory, measure project, it is expressed Formula is as follows：
5th step, is adjusted forecast cost according to actual conditions, until prediction result and power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering Predetermined condition it is consistent.
Basic principle, main feature and the advantages of the present invention of the present invention has been shown and described above.The technology of the industry Personnel are it should be appreciated that the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments, and what is described in the above embodiment and the description is only the present invention Principle, various changes and modifications of the present invention are possible without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention, these change and Improvement is both fallen within the range of claimed invention.The protection domain of application claims by appended claims and its Equivalent defines.

Claims (6)

1. a kind of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering Cost Management System, including engineering cost information management program, cost analysis program, Forecasting of cost program, comprehensive inquiry program and basic information management program, it is characterised in that：
The engineering cost information management program is used for typing or imports the cost information of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering；
The cost analysis program is used to carry out the cost information of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering vertical analysis, horizontal analysis, bag Vertical analysis module and horizontal analysis module are included, horizontal analysis module is used for the inventory cost of the different phase of analysis of history engineering Data, vertical analysis module are used to analyze inventory cost data of the different engineerings in same stage；
The forecasting of cost program is used to carry out engineering classification according to vertical analysis and horizontal analysis result, builds Sinilar engineering, Forecasting of cost and result export are carried out to Sinilar engineering；
The comprehensive inquiry program is used to inquiring about, generate and exporting various analysis of prices reports, cost analysis/pro forma statement, is System provides corresponding report according to different querying conditions, and the report form type of output is according to file content formal character；
The basic information management program is used for various databases, setting Forecasting Methodology and priority assignation needed for management system, The management of database is included to the basic database such as bill of quantities java standard library, quota store, main material storehouse and accessory storehouse or equipment library Newly-increased, modification, delete, import and export.
2. a kind of control method of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering Cost Management System according to claim 1, its feature exist In comprising the following steps：
21) item dividing of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering project is determined, according to item dividing, utilizing works cost information management journey Sequence is collected from corresponding external system and the cost information of all kinds of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineerings of typing, and it is big to get power grid technological transformation Repair the cost control key element of engineering and the cost element based on bill of quantities；
22) analysis of the bill of quantities cost data of history engineering different phase and different engineering same stages, according to power grid The cost control key element of technological transformation overhaul engineering and the cost element based on bill of quantities, using horizontal analysis module to history work The cost data of the bill of quantities of journey different phase is analyzed, using vertical analysis module to different engineerings in same stage The cost data of bill of quantities analyzed；
23) structure and similarity measure of similarity matrix, utilizes forecasting of cost program construction character type similarity matrix sum number Font similarity matrix, carries out engineering classification using different similarity calculating methods according to the different type of similarity matrix, obtains Obtain the result of calculation of the similarity degree of similar technological transformation overhaul engineering；
24) quantitatively calculate and predict, according to the result of calculation of similarity, using the quantitative side for calculating and being combined with qualitative analysis Method, carries out forecasting of cost to the cost of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering stage by stage, exports prediction result；
25) forecast cost is adjusted according to actual conditions, until prediction result and the default feelings of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering Condition is consistent.
3. a kind of control method of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering Cost Management System according to claim 2, its feature exist In described to carry out analysis to the cost data of the bill of quantities of history engineering different phase using horizontal analysis module and include Following steps：
31) horizontal analysis collected for engineering cost, with sequence number and the entitled tree node of expense, expense title includes branch Subdivisional work is taken, second supplies buying accessory/material for the second of buying accessory/fee of material or technology innovation project for buying equipment/fee of material, first Material takes or the first of technology innovation project is for buying equipment/fee of material, measure item cost, sundry item expense, set-fee and tax, for technological transformation Engineering, further includes buying installation cost, Layering manifestation estimated cost, contract cost, actual cost, cost change and costvariation, It is total cost in this cost；
32) horizontal analysis collected for branch's subitem expense, with sequence number and the entitled tree node of expense, technological transformation overhaul engineering Expense title take and equipment technological transformation overhaul expense including building repair, the expense title of technology innovation project includes architectural engineering expense, pacifies Dress engineering cost and projects take, Layering manifestation estimated cost, contract cost, actual cost, cost change and costvariation, This cost is conjunction valency, and divides labour cost, fee of material, machinery cost, administration fee and profit to show；
33) for the horizontal analysis of part-to-item project amount inventory expense detail, with project code, project in branch's subitem inventory Entitled tree node, Layering manifestation measurement unit, estimated cost, contract cost and actual cost, estimated cost include counting in advance Amount, budgetary unit price, budget close valency, contract cost include contract quantity, unit price, contract close valency, actual cost include actual quantity, Actual unit price, actual conjunction valency, cost change further include unit price change, the change of conjunction valency, and costvariation is inclined including unit value bias, conjunction valency Difference；, can be further by unit price and the detailed display of conjunction valency when display is detailed, unit price and conjunction valency detail are by labour cost, fee of material, machinery Take, administration fee and reward structure；
34) match somebody with somebody for second of the second for buying material/accessory valuation or technology innovation project for buying equipment/materials valuation, first for buying The first of part/materials valuation and technology innovation project supplies the horizontal analysis of buying equipment/material, with specific material/accessory or technological transformation work The entitled tree node of equipment/material of journey, Layering manifestation unit, estimated cost, contract cost and actual cost, estimated cost Close valency including budgeted number, budgetary unit price, budget, contract cost includes contract quantity, unit contract price, contract and closes valency, it is actual into This includes actual quantity, actual unit price, reality and closes valency, and cost, which becomes, to be further included quantity change, unit price changes and close valency change, cost Deviation includes volume deviation, unit value bias and closes valency deviation；
35) for the horizontal analysis of measure item and other item bill, with specific measure project name, sundry item Entitled tree node, Layering manifestation estimated cost, contract cost, actual cost, cost change and costvariation, cost here All it is conjunction valency.
4. a kind of control method of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering Cost Management System according to claim 2, its feature exist In described to carry out analysis bag to the cost data of bill of quantities of the different engineerings in same stage using vertical analysis module Include following steps：
41) vertical analysis collected for engineering, the division of labor journey 1, engineering 2 ..., engineering n collect the estimated cost of each engineering, contract Cost, actual cost, cost change and costvariation, are total cost in this cost；
42) vertical analysis collected for engineering cost, division of labor journey 1, engineering 2 ..., engineering n collect the branch point of each engineering Item engineering cost, second supply buying accessory/material for the second of buying accessory/fee of material or technology innovation project for buying equipment/fee of material, first Take or the first of technology innovation project is for buying equipment/fee of material, measure item cost, sundry item expense, set-fee and each total cost of tax；
43) for the vertical analysis that collects of branch's subitem expense, division of labor journey 1, engineering 2 ..., engineering n collect point of each engineering Subitem engineering cost total value, and divide labour cost, fee of material, machinery cost, administration fee and profit to show；
44) it is detailed for part-to-item project amount inventory expense, division of labor journey 1, engineering 2 ..., engineering n show that each engineering is each Branch's subitem inventory detail expense, including measurement unit, quantity, comprehensive unit price and conjunction valency；
45) buying equipment/fee of material valuation, first are supplied for buying for the second of buying material/accessory valuation or technology innovation project for second Vertical analysis of the first of accessory/materials valuation or technology innovation project for buying equipment/fee of material：Divide the work journey 1, engineering 2 ..., engineering n Show measurement unit, quantity, unit price and the conjunction valency of specific material/accessory or equipment/material of technology innovation project；
46) for the vertical analysis of measure item and other item bill, division of labor journey 1, engineering 2 ..., engineering n display tools Measure project, the total cost of sundry item of body.
5. a kind of control method of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering Cost Management System according to claim 2, its feature exist In the structure and similarity measure of the similarity matrix comprise the following steps：
51) according to BOQ content, character type similarity matrix and numeric type similarity matrix are built stage by stage,
The character type similarity matrix is made of bill of quantities item and its character type attribute, and general formula is B (A × M),
Wherein, A is the character type attribute of bill of quantities item, including the qualitative description of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering and rule retouch State, M is bill of quantities item；
The numeric type similarity matrix is made of bill of quantities item and its Numeric Attributes, and general formula is N (D × M),
Wherein, D is bill of quantities item Numeric Attributes, including quantities and project cost, M are bill of quantities item；
52) different similarity matrixs calculates similarity with corresponding method：
521) similarity calculating method of character type similarity matrix is：
According to the general formula of character type similarity matrix, the model character type similarity matrix B of engineering project to be analyzed is builttAnd ginseng Examine engineering project model character type similarity matrix Bt"；
To any bill of quantities item, similarity is calculated：
<mrow> <mi>s</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mi>m</mi> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <msubsup> <mi>M</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mi>t</mi> </msubsup> <mo>,</mo> <msup> <msubsup> <mi>M</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mi>t</mi> </msubsup> <mrow> <mo>&amp;prime;</mo> <mo>&amp;prime;</mo> </mrow> </msup> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mo>=</mo> <mfrac> <mrow> <msup> <mi>A</mi> <mi>t</mi> </msup> <mo>&amp;cap;</mo> <msup> <msup> <mi>A</mi> <mi>t</mi> </msup> <mrow> <mo>&amp;prime;</mo> <mo>&amp;prime;</mo> </mrow> </msup> </mrow> <mrow> <msup> <mi>A</mi> <mi>t</mi> </msup> <mo>&amp;cup;</mo> <msup> <msup> <mi>A</mi> <mi>t</mi> </msup> <mrow> <mo>&amp;prime;</mo> <mo>&amp;prime;</mo> </mrow> </msup> </mrow> </mfrac> <mo>,</mo> </mrow>
<mrow> <mi>s</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mi>m</mi> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mrow> <msup> <mi>B</mi> <mi>t</mi> </msup> <mo>,</mo> <msup> <msup> <mi>B</mi> <mi>t</mi> </msup> <mrow> <mo>&amp;prime;</mo> <mo>&amp;prime;</mo> </mrow> </msup> </mrow> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mo>=</mo> <mfrac> <mrow> <munder> <mi>&amp;Sigma;</mi> <msub> <mi>M</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> </munder> <mi>s</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mi>m</mi> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mrow> <msubsup> <mi>M</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mi>t</mi> </msubsup> <mo>,</mo> <msup> <msubsup> <mi>M</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mi>t</mi> </msubsup> <mrow> <mo>&amp;prime;</mo> <mo>&amp;prime;</mo> </mrow> </msup> </mrow> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> </mrow> <mrow> <mi>c</mi> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>M</mi> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> </mrow> </mfrac> <mo>,</mo> </mrow>
Wherein,It is the friendship of bill of quantities item for the similarity of the character type attribute of identical bill of quantities item Collection and the ratio of union；sim(Bt,Bt") is BtWith Bt"Similarity, ask equal for all bill of quantities item character type similarities Value；C (M) represents bill of quantities item number；
522) similarity calculating method of numeric type similarity matrix is：
According to the general formula of character type similarity matrix, engineering project model value type matrix N to be analyzed is builttWith reference engineering item Mesh model character type matrix Nt″；
To any bill of quantities item, similarity is calculated：
<mrow> <mi>s</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mi>m</mi> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <msubsup> <mi>M</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mi>t</mi> </msubsup> <mo>,</mo> <msup> <msubsup> <mi>M</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mi>t</mi> </msubsup> <mrow> <mo>&amp;prime;</mo> <mo>&amp;prime;</mo> </mrow> </msup> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mo>=</mo> <mfrac> <mrow> <munder> <mo>&amp;Sigma;</mo> <msub> <mi>D</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> </munder> <msubsup> <mi>M</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mi>t</mi> </msubsup> <mo>&amp;times;</mo> <msup> <msubsup> <mi>M</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mi>t</mi> </msubsup> <mrow> <mo>&amp;prime;</mo> <mo>&amp;prime;</mo> </mrow> </msup> </mrow> <msqrt> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <munder> <mo>&amp;Sigma;</mo> <msub> <mi>D</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> </munder> <msup> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <msubsup> <mi>M</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mi>t</mi> </msubsup> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mn>2</mn> </msup> <mo>)</mo> <mo>(</mo> <munder> <mo>&amp;Sigma;</mo> <msub> <mi>D</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> </munder> <msup> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mrow> <msup> <msubsup> <mi>M</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mi>t</mi> </msubsup> <mrow> <mo>&amp;prime;</mo> <mo>&amp;prime;</mo> </mrow> </msup> </mrow> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mn>2</mn> </msup> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> </msqrt> </mfrac> </mrow>
<mrow> <mi>s</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mi>m</mi> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <msup> <mi>N</mi> <mi>t</mi> </msup> <mo>,</mo> <msup> <msup> <mi>N</mi> <mi>t</mi> </msup> <mrow> <mo>&amp;prime;</mo> <mo>&amp;prime;</mo> </mrow> </msup> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mo>=</mo> <mfrac> <mrow> <munder> <mo>&amp;Sigma;</mo> <msub> <mi>M</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> </munder> <mi>s</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mi>m</mi> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <msubsup> <mi>M</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mi>t</mi> </msubsup> <mo>,</mo> <msup> <msubsup> <mi>M</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mi>t</mi> </msubsup> <mrow> <mo>&amp;prime;</mo> <mo>&amp;prime;</mo> </mrow> </msup> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> </mrow> <mrow> <mi>c</mi> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>M</mi> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> </mrow> </mfrac> </mrow>
Wherein,For the similarity of the Numeric Attributes of identical bill of quantities item, solved for the utilization cosine law Numeric type similarity；sim(Nt,Nt") is NtWith Nt′Similarity, average for all bill of quantities item numeric type similarities； C (M) represents bill of quantities item number.
6. a kind of control method of power grid technological transformation overhaul engineering Cost Management System according to claim 2, its feature exist In the method for the quantitative calculating is Smoothness Index predicted method, specifically includes following steps：
61) calculating of technological transformation overhaul engineering cost is estimated, its calculation formula is as follows：
yi=Di-1+(1-α)yi-1,
yiThe cost of technological transformation overhaul engineering is estimated in expression,
yi-1Represent the prediction cost of Sinilar engineering in historical data base,
Di-1Represent the actual building cost of Sinilar engineering in historical data base,
α is equilibrium index；
62) calculating of branch's subitem inventory Cost Forecast value,
If the history actual building cost of i-th of similar technological transformation overhaul engineering is Pi, predicted value isIt predicts that error is Then branch's subitem inventory Cost Forecast value of the i-th -1 Sinilar engineering is：
<mrow> <msubsup> <mi>P</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mo>-</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> <mo>*</mo> </msubsup> <mo>=</mo> <msubsup> <mi>P</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mo>*</mo> </msubsup> <mo>+</mo> <msub> <mi>&amp;alpha;</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <msub> <mi>P</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> <mo>-</mo> <msubsup> <mi>P</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mo>*</mo> </msubsup> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mo>,</mo> </mrow>
Branch's subitem inventory Cost Forecast value of i-th of Sinilar engineering is modified, αiFor similarity degree, by similarity meter Formula is calculated to obtain；
Estimate the forecasting of cost values such as each branch subitem, the measure project of engineering：
<mfenced open = "" close = ""> <mtable> <mtr> <mtd> <mrow> <msup> <mi>P</mi> <mo>*</mo> </msup> <mo>=</mo> <msub> <mi>&amp;alpha;</mi> <mn>1</mn> </msub> <msub> <mi>P</mi> <mn>1</mn> </msub> <mo>+</mo> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mrow> <mn>1</mn> <mo>-</mo> <msub> <mi>&amp;alpha;</mi> <mn>1</mn> </msub> </mrow> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <msub> <mi>&amp;alpha;</mi> <mn>2</mn> </msub> <msub> <mi>P</mi> <mn>2</mn> </msub> <mo>+</mo> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mrow> <mn>1</mn> <mo>-</mo> <msub> <mi>&amp;alpha;</mi> <mn>1</mn> </msub> </mrow> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mrow> <mn>1</mn> <mo>-</mo> <msub> <mi>&amp;alpha;</mi> <mn>2</mn> </msub> </mrow> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <msub> <mi>&amp;alpha;</mi> <mn>3</mn> </msub> <msub> <mi>P</mi> <mn>3</mn> </msub> <mo>+</mo> <mn>...</mn> </mrow> </mtd> </mtr> <mtr> <mtd> <mrow> <mo>+</mo> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mrow> <mn>1</mn> <mo>-</mo> <msub> <mi>&amp;alpha;</mi> <mn>1</mn> </msub> </mrow> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mrow> <mn>1</mn> <mo>-</mo> <msub> <mi>&amp;alpha;</mi> <mn>2</mn> </msub> </mrow> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mn>...</mn> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mrow> <mn>1</mn> <mo>-</mo> <msub> <mi>&amp;alpha;</mi> <mrow> <mi>n</mi> <mo>-</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </msub> </mrow> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <msub> <mi>&amp;alpha;</mi> <mi>n</mi> </msub> <msub> <mi>P</mi> <mi>n</mi> </msub> </mrow> </mtd> </mtr> <mtr> <mtd> <mrow> <mo>+</mo> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mrow> <mn>1</mn> <mo>-</mo> <msub> <mi>&amp;alpha;</mi> <mn>1</mn> </msub> </mrow> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mrow> <mn>1</mn> <mo>-</mo> <msub> <mi>&amp;alpha;</mi> <mn>2</mn> </msub> </mrow> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mn>...</mn> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mrow> <mn>1</mn> <mo>-</mo> <msub> <mi>&amp;alpha;</mi> <mrow> <mi>n</mi> <mo>-</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </msub> </mrow> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mrow> <mn>1</mn> <mo>-</mo> <msub> <mi>&amp;alpha;</mi> <mi>n</mi> </msub> </mrow> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <msubsup> <mi>P</mi> <mi>n</mi> <mo>*</mo> </msubsup> </mrow> </mtd> </mtr> </mtable> </mfenced>
For the formula average value of the actual costs such as n typical Sinilar engineering segment analysis inventory, measure project, its expression formula is such as Under：
<mrow> <msubsup> <mi>P</mi> <mi>n</mi> <mo>*</mo> </msubsup> <mo>=</mo> <mfrac> <mn>1</mn> <mi>n</mi> </mfrac> <munderover> <mo>&amp;Sigma;</mo> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> <mi>n</mi> </munderover> <msub> <mi>P</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> <mo>.</mo> </mrow>
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CN114819417B (en) * 2022-06-28 2022-09-16 北京航空航天大学 Aero-engine overhaul cost prediction method and system based on correlation between costs
CN115796932A (en) * 2022-11-10 2023-03-14 永道工程咨询有限公司 Engineering cost prediction method and device, electronic equipment and storage medium
CN115796932B (en) * 2022-11-10 2023-10-03 永道工程咨询有限公司 Project cost prediction method and device, electronic equipment and storage medium

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