CN107918803B - Equipment annual operation and maintenance plan checking method - Google Patents

Equipment annual operation and maintenance plan checking method Download PDF

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CN107918803B
CN107918803B CN201710998409.0A CN201710998409A CN107918803B CN 107918803 B CN107918803 B CN 107918803B CN 201710998409 A CN201710998409 A CN 201710998409A CN 107918803 B CN107918803 B CN 107918803B
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吕启深
艾精文
刘典安
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Shenzhen Power Supply Co ltd
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Abstract

The invention provides a method for checking an annual operation and maintenance plan of equipment, which comprises the following steps: acquiring historical data of equipment operation and maintenance work before the predicted year; respectively calculating the maximum value and the minimum value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work in each historical year; predicting the maximum value and the minimum value of each resource required by various operation and maintenance works in the predicted year by adopting an exponential smoothing method; respectively obtaining the maximum predicted value and the minimum predicted value of each resource required by various operation and maintenance works in each working day of the predicted year; correspondingly comparing the obtained maximum predicted value, the minimum predicted value and the plan value; if the plan values are between the maximum predicted value and the minimum predicted value, executing the operation and maintenance work plan; if the plan value of each working day of a certain resource required by a certain type of operation and maintenance work is beyond the maximum predicted value and the minimum predicted value, the operation and maintenance plan needs to be adjusted. The invention can achieve the purpose of checking the working plan of the future year.

Description

Equipment annual operation and maintenance plan checking method
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of equipment operation and maintenance, in particular to a method for checking an equipment annual operation and maintenance plan.
Background
The power equipment is a main composition form of the assets of the power enterprises due to the characteristics of high value, large quantity, high reliability and the like. The operation and maintenance of the power equipment refers to the daily maintenance and inspection of the equipment by the power enterprises. According to the current working form, the operation and maintenance of the power equipment mainly comprises professional work such as patrol, periodic maintenance, preventive tests and the like of the power equipment, wherein various kinds of work are divided into various subdivision types, for example, patrol is divided into daily patrol, night patrol, professional patrol and special patrol. The division standard comprises factors such as the requirement of patrol, inspection items, and the specialty for carrying out patrol work.
The operation and maintenance of the power equipment is also one of the main work and cost in the production field of power enterprises, and the power enterprises spend a large amount of manpower, material resources and financial resources to develop the operation and maintenance of the equipment due to large equipment scale and high operation and maintenance requirements. If the operation and maintenance planning is not checked properly, the resource waste is easily caused. Although the current application platform for scheduling and optimizing the operation and maintenance plan of the power equipment can replace manual work to realize automatic scheduling of the operation and maintenance plan of the equipment, the current operation and maintenance plan of the equipment lacks capabilities of comprehensive mining analysis and intelligent prediction analysis and lacks a method capable of guiding actual work optimization, particularly checking the operation and maintenance plan of annual equipment due to the fact that power supply equipment is complicated, operation and maintenance tasks are multiple, and a plurality of factors such as operation and maintenance human resources, tool resources, operation and maintenance equipment scale need to be considered.
Disclosure of Invention
The technical problem to be solved by the invention is to provide a method for checking an equipment annual operation and maintenance plan, which is based on historical operation and maintenance data, utilizes a time series analysis method to mine historical information such as actual workload, human resources, tool resources, the number of operation and maintenance equipment and the like, calculates the maximum value and the minimum value of the operation and maintenance resources required by various types of work in historical time periods, thereby predicting the most-valued interval of the equipment operation and maintenance workload, human resources, tools and equipment and the number of operation and maintenance equipment required by various types of work years in future time periods, compares the equipment operation and maintenance workload with the predicted value according to the future annual operation plan, and completes optimization of the equipment operation and maintenance work plan in the future time periods by continuously checking and adjusting the annual operation and maintenance work plan.
The invention provides a method for checking an equipment annual operation and maintenance plan, which comprises the following steps:
step S1, obtaining the operation and maintenance work history data of the equipment of a plurality of historical years before the predicted year;
step S2, respectively calculating the maximum value and the minimum value of each resource required by each operation and maintenance work in each of the plurality of historical years according to the operation and maintenance work history data of the equipment in the plurality of historical years;
step S3, according to the information calculated in the step 2, the maximum value and the minimum value of each resource required by various operation and maintenance works in the predicted year are predicted by adopting an exponential smoothing method;
step S4, respectively and averagely distributing the maximum value and the minimum value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work in the predicted year to each workable day of the predicted year, and respectively obtaining the maximum predicted value and the minimum predicted value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work in each workable day of the predicted year;
step S5, comparing the maximum predicted value and the minimum predicted value of each workable day of each resource required by various kinds of operation and maintenance work obtained in step S4 with the plan value of each workable day of each resource required by various kinds of operation and maintenance work in the operation and maintenance work plan formulated for the predicted year;
step S6, if the plan value of each working day of each resource needed by various operation and maintenance works is between the maximum predicted value and the minimum predicted value, executing the operation and maintenance work plan made for the predicted year;
step S7, if the plan value of each working day of a certain resource required by a certain operation and maintenance work is outside the maximum predicted value and the minimum predicted value, it indicates that the certain resource required by the certain operation and maintenance work in the operation and maintenance plan formulated for the predicted year needs to be adjusted.
Wherein, the step S1 specifically includes:
and during the plurality of historical years, at least one of a production plan, a work ticket and an operation ticket is regularly acquired, and historical data of various kinds of operation and maintenance work is acquired by analyzing the various kinds of information, wherein the historical data of each kind of operation and maintenance work comprises actual workload, the number of people, the number of tools and equipment and the number of operation and maintenance equipment.
In step S2, the step of calculating the maximum value and the minimum value of a certain resource required by a certain type of operation and maintenance work in a certain historical year includes:
step S21, acquiring the demand of the certain resource in each of the 12 months of the certain historical year;
step S22, multiplying the maximum monthly demand for the certain resource in 12 months of the certain historical year by 12, to obtain the maximum value of the certain resource required by the certain class of operation and maintenance work in the certain historical year;
step S23, multiplying the minimum monthly requirement for the certain resource in 12 months of the certain historical year by 12, to obtain the minimum value of the certain resource required by the certain class of operation and maintenance work in the certain historical year.
Wherein the step S3 further includes:
step S31, summing the maximum value and the minimum value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work in each historical year respectively to obtain a first summation value and a second summation value, and dividing the first summation value and the second summation value by the number of the historical years to obtain the average value of the maximum value and the average value of the minimum value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work in each historical year respectively;
step S32, calculating a first exponential smoothing value and a second exponential smoothing value of the maximum value and the minimum value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work in each historical year according to the calculated average value of the maximum value and the calculated average value of the minimum value of each resource.
In step S32, the first exponential smoothing value and the second exponential smoothing value of the maximum value and the minimum value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work in each historical year are respectively calculated as follows:
Figure BDA0001442890490000031
Figure BDA0001442890490000032
wherein,
Figure BDA0001442890490000033
representing the maximum value or the minimum value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work in the t-th historical yearA primary exponential smoothing value of;
Figure BDA0001442890490000034
a quadratic exponential smoothing value representing the maximum value or the minimum value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work in the t-th historical year; when in use
Figure BDA0001442890490000035
And
Figure BDA0001442890490000036
when the first exponential smoothing value and the second exponential smoothing value of the maximum value are expressed respectively, YtRespectively corresponding to the average value of the maximum value and the average value of the minimum value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work in the t-th historical year;
Figure BDA0001442890490000037
a primary exponential smoothing value representing the maximum value or the minimum value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work in the t-1 th historical year;
Figure BDA0001442890490000038
a quadratic exponential smoothing value representing the maximum value or the minimum value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work in the t-1 th historical year; α is a smoothing coefficient.
Wherein, the step S4 specifically includes:
step S41, calculating a primary exponential smooth value and a secondary exponential smooth value of the maximum value and the minimum value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work of the latest historical year from the predicted year using the primary exponential smooth value and the secondary exponential smooth value of the maximum value and the minimum value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work of the latest historical year from the plurality of historical years, respectively, as follows:
Figure BDA0001442890490000039
Figure BDA00014428904900000310
Yt+x＝at+btX
wherein, Yt+xAnd a primary exponential smoothing value or a secondary exponential smoothing value representing the maximum value and the minimum value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work.
The resources required by various operation and maintenance works comprise at least one of workload, manpower, the number of tools and instruments and the number of operation and maintenance equipment.
The invention relates to a method for checking an annual operation and maintenance plan of equipment. On one hand, the operation and maintenance working conditions of the future year can be comprehensively analyzed and intelligently predicted under the condition of considering a plurality of factors such as operation and maintenance human resources, tool resources, operation and maintenance equipment scale and the like; on one hand, the working plan of the future year is checked, so that the optimized adjustment of the working plan of the equipment operation and maintenance year is realized, and the plan conforms to the actual operation and maintenance capacity; on the other hand, the efficiency of the operation and maintenance work of the power equipment and the stability of plan execution are improved, and the waste of manpower, material resources and financial resources of the power enterprises in the operation and maintenance work is reduced.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below, it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and for those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained according to the drawings without creative efforts.
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a device annual operation and maintenance plan checking method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The following description of the embodiments refers to the accompanying drawings, which are included to illustrate specific embodiments in which the invention may be practiced.
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for checking an annual operation and maintenance plan of equipment according to an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in fig. 1, the method for checking the annual operation and maintenance plan of the device of the present invention includes:
in step S1, the operation and maintenance operation history data of the device of a plurality of historical years before the predicted year is acquired.
In a specific implementation, in step S1, at least one of the production plan, the work ticket, and the operation ticket may be periodically obtained during the plurality of historical years, and historical data of various kinds of operation and maintenance work may be obtained by analyzing the above various information, where the historical data of each kind of operation and maintenance work includes an actual workload, a number of people, a number of tools, and a number of operation and maintenance devices.
Step S2, respectively calculating the maximum value and the minimum value of each resource required by each operation and maintenance work in each of the plurality of historical years according to the historical data of the operation and maintenance work of the equipment in the plurality of historical years.
Assuming that a certain historical year is the tth year, the various operation and maintenance works of the power equipment are wn (t), and the actual workload Y of the various operation and maintenance works acquired in step S1Work load (t)Manpower YPerson (t)Number of tools and instruments YTools and instruments (t)Number of devices Y for operation and maintenanceEquipment (t)Then, in step S2, detailed data of the workload, the manpower, the number of tools and tools, and the number of operation and maintenance devices of the power equipment within a period of time (for example, within 8 years) after t is selected according to the current historical year t, and the detailed data is specifically monthly. And aiming at various operation and maintenance works, the maximum value and the minimum value of the workload, the manpower, the number of tools and instruments and the number of operation and maintenance equipment required by the operation and maintenance work in each year are respectively calculated.
Suppose that the operation and maintenance work of the previous year of t years are W respectively1(t-1)、W2(t-1)、W3(t-1)、W4(t-1)、W5(t-1)、……、Wn(t-1)Then, the calculation method of each operation and maintenance work data for calculating t-1 year is as follows (in the following, W is exemplified1(t-1)The operation and maintenance work calculation method of (1) is the same for other operation and maintenance works):
taking W1(t-1)The workload, the manpower, the number of tools and equipment and the number of operation and maintenance equipment of each month in 12 months of t-1 year.
② moonAs a unit, W1(t-1)The maximum monthly workload of the operation and maintenance work in 12 months of t-1 year is multiplied by 12 as W in the current year1(t-1)The maximum work load of the operation and maintenance work is obtained by multiplying the monthly work load with the minimum work load by 12 to obtain the W in the current year1(t-1)And the workload of operation and maintenance work is minimum.
(iii) the method of (ii) calculates W with the same principle1(t-1)The maximum value and the minimum value of the manpower, the number of tools and the number of operation and maintenance equipment in t-1 year of operation and maintenance work.
And calculating the operation and maintenance work Wn of the power equipment in t years according to the method of the first step and the second step(t)Maximum value of (Y)Workload (t) max、YPerson (t) max、YTool (t) max、YDevice (t) maxAnd minimum value YWorkload (t) min、YPerson (t) min、YTools (t) min、YDevice (t) min。
And step S3, according to the information obtained by the calculation in the step 2, predicting the maximum value and the minimum value of each resource required by various operation and maintenance works in the predicted year by adopting an exponential smoothing method.
In step S3, the workload, human resources, tools, and the number of operation and maintenance equipment of each type of operation and maintenance work in the next year (i.e., the predicted year) are predicted in time series based on the historical data by using an exponential smoothing method. The calculation formula is as follows:
calculating a primary index smooth value and a secondary index smooth value of the maximum value and the minimum value of various operation and maintenance workloads, personnel, tools and operation and maintenance equipment numbers of each historical year obtained in the step S2;
Figure BDA0001442890490000051
Figure BDA0001442890490000052
wherein:
Figure BDA0001442890490000053
a primary exponential smoothing value representing the maximum value or the minimum value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work in the t-th historical year;
Figure BDA0001442890490000054
a quadratic exponential smoothing value representing the maximum value or the minimum value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work in the t-th historical year; when in use
Figure BDA0001442890490000055
And
Figure BDA0001442890490000056
when the first exponential smoothing value and the second exponential smoothing value of the maximum value are expressed respectively, YtRespectively corresponding to the average value of the maximum value and the average value of the minimum value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work in the t-th historical year;
Figure BDA0001442890490000057
a primary exponential smoothing value representing the maximum value or the minimum value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work in the t-1 th historical year;
Figure BDA0001442890490000058
a quadratic exponential smoothing value representing the maximum value or the minimum value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work in the t-1 th historical year; α is a smoothing coefficient.
When the fluctuation of the original number sequence is not large, the alpha takes a smaller value (0.1-0.3) to emphasize the weight of the predicted value in the early stage; if the original sequence fluctuates significantly, then α can take a larger value (e.g., 0.6-0.9) to weight the earlier observed values. In practice, several different alpha values can be used for trial comparison, and then the alpha value with smaller error is selected. The method currently selects alpha to be 0.2.
For YtIf the number of history year items N is greater (e.g., N is greater than or equal to 50), then the observed value of the maximum or minimum value of the earliest history year in N can be used as YtBecause ofAfter many smooth calculations, YtThe effect on the result is not so great that if the number of historical year items N is small (N is less than or equal to 20), then the average of the maximum and minimum values per year of the historical year N can be used as Yt. N in the method can be 8 years, so that the average of the maximum value or the minimum value of the current selection history of 8 years is Yt. Namely, the maximum value Y of each operation and maintenance work Wn (t) within 8 years is respectively takenWorkload (t) max、YPerson (t) max、YTool (t) max、YDevice (t) maxAnd minimum value YWorkload (t) min、YPerson (t) min、YTools (t) min、YDevice (t) minIs taken as the average value of Yt。
Calculating model parameter a by using two exponential smoothing values of historical years nearest to predicted yearst、btA value of (d);
Figure BDA0001442890490000061
Figure BDA0001442890490000062
③ A ist、btSubstituting the value of (A) into a prediction formula, and calculating a predicted value.
Yt+x＝at+btX (where X represents data predicted after the X year.)
Step S4, averagely distributing the maximum value and the minimum value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work in the predicted year to each workable day of the predicted year, and respectively obtaining the maximum predicted value and the minimum predicted value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work in each workable day of the predicted year.
Step S5, comparing the maximum predicted value and the minimum predicted value of each workable day of each resource required by various kinds of operation and maintenance work obtained in step S4 with the plan value of each workable day of each resource required by various kinds of operation and maintenance work in the operation and maintenance work plan formulated for the predicted year;
step S6, if the plan value of each working day of each resource needed by various operation and maintenance works is between the maximum predicted value and the minimum predicted value, executing the operation and maintenance work plan made for the predicted year;
step S7, if the plan value of each working day of a certain resource required by a certain operation and maintenance work is outside the maximum predicted value and the minimum predicted value, it indicates that the certain resource required by the certain operation and maintenance work in the operation and maintenance plan formulated for the predicted year needs to be adjusted.
The following illustrates a specific implementation of the method according to the embodiment of the present invention with reference to specific cases of 2010-2017 of the power enterprise.
Firstly, in step S1, historical data of various operation and maintenance works of each year are obtained through data interfaces such as an actual production plan, an operation ticket, and a work ticket of the operation and maintenance work of a certain power enterprise 2010-2017 year, and the historical data mainly includes data such as actual workload, number of people, tool resources, and the number of operation and maintenance devices of the various operation and maintenance works.
Next, the mode of calculating, predicting and checking the maximum value of each kind of work and its corresponding operation and maintenance resources (workload, number of people, tool resources, and number of operation and maintenance devices) is the same, so this example only exemplifies the annual operation and maintenance workload checking of one kind of work (hereinafter referred to as a kind of operation and maintenance work).
In steps S2-S4, according to the history data of the operation and maintenance work in the year 2017 and 2010, calculating the maximum value and the minimum value of the operation and maintenance workload of various operation and maintenance works in the year 2018, wherein the specific method is as follows:
in step S2, the maximum monthly operation and maintenance workload in 12 months of each year of the operation and maintenance work of the enterprise 2010-2017 class a is multiplied by 12 to be used as the annual maximum operation and maintenance workload Y of the operation and maintenance work of the class a in each yeart(max)(ii) a Similarly, the minimum monthly operation and maintenance workload Y of the A-type operation and maintenance work of each year in the year of 2010-2017 in 12 months is multiplied by 12 to obtain the annual minimum operation and maintenance workload Y of the A-type operation and maintenance work of each yeart. Calculated annual class A fortuneMaximum annual maximum operation and maintenance workload Y of maintenance workt(max)Annual minimum operation and maintenance workload YtAs shown in table 1 below (unit: man by day):
TABLE 1
Figure BDA0001442890490000071
In step S3, the annual operation and maintenance workload maximum value Y according to the class a operation and maintenance work of the enterprise 2010-2017t(max)Calculating a primary index smooth value and a secondary index smooth value of the maximum value of the operation and maintenance load according to the annual operation and maintenance workload minimum value Y of the class A operation and maintenance work of the enterprise 2010-2017tCalculating a first exponential smoothing value and a second exponential smoothing value of the minimum value, wherein this example only exemplifies the calculation process of the minimum value of 2010-2017 year per year (the maximum value is calculated by the same formula), and the formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0001442890490000072
Figure BDA0001442890490000073
in the above formulas (1) to (2), t is 2010-2017 in this order.
In step S4, two exponential smoothing values in the last year (2017) are taken to obtain the parameter a required by the prediction model2017、b2017The value of (c):
Figure BDA0001442890490000081
Figure BDA0001442890490000082
where α is a smoothing coefficient. Smoothing factor α is Y of the tabletWhen the numerical value fluctuation of the array is not large, the alpha takes a smaller value (0.1-0.3) to emphasize the weight of the prior observed value; if it isY of the above tabletWhere the array values fluctuate more, then α may take a larger value (e.g., 0.6-0.9) to weight the earlier observations. In this example YtIs not large, so α is selected to be 0.2.
In this embodiment YtThe average value of 8 years is 376.1;
then, a prediction model is established, and the predicted value in 2018 is calculated:
Y2017+1＝a2017+b20171 (wherein 1 represents data predicted to be in the 1 st year (i.e., 2018 years) after 2017) (5)
The relevant data of the calculation process of the steps 3 and 4 are as follows:
Figure BDA0001442890490000083
in conclusion, according to the prediction model, the annual prediction minimum workload of the equipment operation and maintenance class a operation and maintenance work of a certain power enterprise in 2018 is calculated to be 424.2:
Y2018418.5+5.7 × 1 ═ 424.2 (minimum workload calculation)
According to the same method, the annual prediction maximum workload of the 2018-year equipment operation and maintenance type A operation and maintenance work is calculated to be 524.2, and therefore the maximum interval of the 2018-year equipment operation and maintenance type A operation and maintenance work is 424.2-524.2.
In step S4, the possible working days are calculated to be 248 days according to the 2018 annual working calendar, and then the annual workload is shared according to the possible working days, so that the minimum workload of each possible working day of the 2018 annual equipment operation and maintenance class a operation and maintenance work of a certain power enterprise is predicted to be 1.7(424.2/248) and the maximum workload is predicted to be 2.1 (524.2/248).
In steps S5-S7, the operation and maintenance workload plan of the class A operation and maintenance work in 2018 is checked according to the measured value of each workable day of the class A operation and maintenance work in 2018. The system obtains the operation and maintenance work plan of the device in 2018, and if the operation and maintenance workload of class A operation and maintenance work in a certain day is 2, the system judges that 2 is in the predicted workload range, and the check is passed. Assuming that the operation and maintenance workload of the class A operation and maintenance work is 3 at a certain day, the system check is not passed, and specific information that the operation and maintenance workload of the class A operation and maintenance work exceeds the predicted value is given, for example, "the class A work and the operation and maintenance workload in XX day exceed the predicted maximum available workload range, the exceeding value is xxx", and a planning worker can adjust the operation and maintenance work plan of the class A operation and maintenance work according to the prompt information of the system check, so that the operation and maintenance workload of the class A operation and maintenance work is within an acceptable range.
Similarly, the maximum value intervals of the manpower, the tools and the operation and maintenance equipment resources of various operation and maintenance works can be predicted by using the prediction analysis method, and corresponding data of a future work plan can be checked and adjusted.
As can be seen from the above description, the present invention has the following advantageous effects:
the invention discloses a method for checking an annual operation and maintenance plan of equipment. On one hand, the operation and maintenance working conditions of the future year can be comprehensively analyzed and intelligently predicted under the condition of considering a plurality of factors such as operation and maintenance human resources, tool resources, operation and maintenance equipment scale and the like; on one hand, the working plan of the future year is checked, so that the optimized adjustment of the working plan of the equipment operation and maintenance year is realized, and the plan conforms to the actual operation and maintenance capacity; on the other hand, the efficiency of the operation and maintenance work of the power equipment and the stability of plan execution are improved, and the waste of manpower, material resources and financial resources of the power enterprises in the operation and maintenance work is reduced.
The above disclosure is only for the purpose of illustrating the preferred embodiments of the present invention, and it is therefore to be understood that the invention is not limited by the scope of the appended claims.

Claims (9)

1. A method for checking an annual operation and maintenance plan of equipment is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step S1, acquiring the operation and maintenance work history data of a plurality of historical years before the predicted year, wherein the operation and maintenance work history data of the equipment of the plurality of historical years of each type of operation and maintenance work comprises the actual workload, the number of people, the number of tools and equipment and the number of operation and maintenance equipment;
step S2, respectively calculating the maximum value and the minimum value of each resource required by each operation and maintenance work in each of the plurality of historical years according to the operation and maintenance work history data of the equipment in the plurality of historical years;
step S3, according to the information obtained by the calculation in the step S2, the maximum value and the minimum value of each resource required by various operation and maintenance works in the predicted year are predicted by adopting an exponential smoothing method;
step S4, respectively and averagely distributing the maximum value and the minimum value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work in the predicted year to each workable day of the predicted year, and respectively obtaining the maximum predicted value and the minimum predicted value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work in each workable day of the predicted year;
step S5, comparing the maximum predicted value and the minimum predicted value of each workable day of each resource required by various kinds of operation and maintenance work obtained in step S4 with the plan value of each workable day of each resource required by various kinds of operation and maintenance work in the operation and maintenance work plan formulated for the predicted year;
step S6, if the plan value of each working day of each resource needed by various operation and maintenance works is between the maximum predicted value and the minimum predicted value, executing the operation and maintenance work plan made for the predicted year;
step S7, if the plan value of each working day of a certain resource required by a certain operation and maintenance work is outside the maximum predicted value and the minimum predicted value, it indicates that the certain resource required by the certain operation and maintenance work in the operation and maintenance plan formulated for the predicted year needs to be adjusted.
2. The method for checking the annual operation and maintenance plan of the equipment according to claim 1, wherein the step S1 specifically includes:
and during the plurality of historical years, at least one of a production plan, a work ticket and an operation ticket is regularly acquired, and historical data of various operation and maintenance works is acquired by analyzing at least one of the production plan, the work ticket and the operation ticket.
3. The method for checking the annual operation and maintenance plan of the equipment according to claim 1, wherein in the step S2, the step of calculating the maximum value and the minimum value of the certain resource required by the certain type of operation and maintenance work in a certain historical year includes:
step S21, acquiring the demand of the certain resource in each of the 12 months of the certain historical year;
step S22, multiplying the maximum monthly demand for the certain resource in 12 months of the certain historical year by 12 to obtain the maximum value of the certain resource required by the certain class of operation and maintenance work in the certain historical year;
step S23, multiplying the minimum monthly demand for the certain resource in 12 months of the certain historical year by 12, to obtain the minimum value of the certain resource required by the certain class of operation and maintenance work in the certain historical year.
4. The device annual operation and maintenance plan checking method according to claim 1, wherein the step S3 further comprises:
step S31, summing the maximum value and the minimum value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work in each historical year respectively to obtain a first summation value and a second summation value, and dividing the first summation value and the second summation value by the number of the historical years to obtain the average value of the maximum value and the average value of the minimum value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work in each historical year respectively;
step S32, calculating a first exponential smoothing value and a second exponential smoothing value of the maximum value and the minimum value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work in each historical year according to the calculated average value of the maximum value and the calculated average value of the minimum value of each resource.
5. The device annual operation and maintenance plan checking method according to claim 4,
in step S32, the primary exponential smoothing value and the secondary exponential smoothing value of the maximum value and the minimum value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work in each historical year are respectively calculated as follows:
Figure FDA0003012779230000021
Figure FDA0003012779230000022
wherein,
Figure FDA0003012779230000023
a primary exponential smoothing value representing the maximum value or the minimum value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work in the t-th historical year;
Figure FDA0003012779230000024
a quadratic exponential smoothing value representing the maximum value or the minimum value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work in the t-th historical year; when in use
Figure FDA0003012779230000025
And
Figure FDA0003012779230000026
when the first exponential smoothing value and the second exponential smoothing value of the maximum value are expressed respectively, YtRespectively corresponding to the average value of the maximum value and the average value of the minimum value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work in the t-th historical year;
Figure FDA0003012779230000027
a primary exponential smoothing value representing the maximum value or the minimum value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work in the t-1 th historical year;
Figure FDA0003012779230000028
a quadratic exponential smoothing value representing the maximum value or the minimum value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work in the t-1 th historical year; α is a smoothing coefficient.
6. The method for checking the annual operation and maintenance plan of the equipment according to claim 5, wherein the step S4 specifically comprises:
step S41, calculating a primary exponential smooth value and a secondary exponential smooth value of the maximum value and the minimum value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work of the latest historical year from the predicted year using the primary exponential smooth value and the secondary exponential smooth value of the maximum value and the minimum value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work of the latest historical year from the plurality of historical years, respectively, as follows:
Figure FDA0003012779230000031
Figure FDA0003012779230000032
Yt+x＝at+btX
wherein, at、btRespectively are model parameters; y ist+xAnd (4) expressing a t + X period predicted value, namely a predicted value of each resource required by each type of operation and maintenance work in the next X year.
7. The equipment annual operation and maintenance plan checking method according to claim 5, wherein the value range of the smoothing coefficient alpha is 0.1-0.3.
8. The equipment annual operation and maintenance plan checking method according to claim 5, wherein the value range of the smoothing coefficient alpha is 0.6-0.9.
9. The equipment annual operation and maintenance plan checking method according to any one of claims 1-8, wherein the resources required by various operation and maintenance works comprise at least one of actual workload, number of people, number of tools and tools, and number of operation and maintenance equipment.
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