CN107908885A

CN107908885A - Basin Social Ecology hydrology evolutionary process analogy method based on kinetics equation

Info

Publication number: CN107908885A
Application number: CN201711157102.4A
Authority: CN
Inventors: 刘登峰; 栾金凯; 魏秀; 张连鹏; 杨倩; 刘赛艳
Original assignee: Xian University of Technology
Current assignee: Xian University of Technology
Priority date: 2017-11-20
Filing date: 2017-11-20
Publication date: 2018-04-13

Abstract

The invention discloses a kind of basin Social Ecology hydrology evolutionary process analogy method based on kinetics equation, specifically implement according to following steps：Step 1, analogue unit divides；Step 2, Social Ecology hydrology Evolution Simulation model is established, including：Step 2.1, the state variable in modeling unit is set；Step 2.2, system dynamic course equation is established；Step 3, simulation phase and preparation model input data are determined；Step 4, main parameter is determined；Step 5, solving model and usage history data calibration parameter；Step 6, simulation obtains evolutionary process.Solve the problems, such as it is existing in the prior art do not account for adaptation of the society to water deficit conditions and with ecological environment problem it is prominent can more pay attention to the value of ecological environment, do not account for social development during social economy's ecological environment hydrology interaction, social economy's natural environment hydrology state evolution process cannot be obtained.

Description

Basin Social Ecology hydrology evolutionary process analogy method based on kinetics equation

Technical field

The invention belongs to the simulation of basin Social Ecology hydrologic process and electric powder prediction, be related in a kind of basin society- The lower coupling evolution process simulation of ecology-hydrology interaction and the method for prediction, and in particular to a kind of based on kinetics equation Basin Social Ecology hydrology evolutionary process analogy method.

Background technology

Watershed Scale in drought-hit area, in the evolution of social economy, with population, Irrigation farming, industrial expansion, Water consumption can constantly increase.Just occur that Eco-environmental Water Consumption is tied up in part basin, the phenomenon of the deterioration of the ecological environment.Tradition Water management when solving basin water resources shortage problem, pass through quota and planning the methods of the non-water of simple forecast Social economy's scale in non-leap year, setting use water scheme, obtain the allocation plan of water resource.This method does not account for, society It is short to after the understanding lifting of restoring ecological environment water resource can be adapted to by the developing goal of policy shift social economy Scarce reality.This water resources management method for following forcasted years can only obtain the configuration result in following indivedual times, not have There is the evolution process of all departments' water consumption, and social economy's scale based on quota and planning forecast makes in the presence of very big uncertainty Obtaining configuration result also has very big uncertainty.

The content of the invention

The object of the present invention is to provide a kind of basin Social Ecology hydrology evolutionary process simulation side based on kinetics equation Method, solves and existing in the prior art does not account for the social adaptation to water deficit conditions and the protrusion with ecological environment problem The value of ecological environment can more be paid attention to, not account for the phase interaction of social economy-ecological environment-hydrology during social development With, the problem of social economy-natural environment-hydrology state evolution process cannot be obtained.

The technical solution adopted in the present invention is the basin Social Ecology hydrology evolutionary process simulation based on kinetics equation Method, specifically implements according to following steps：

Step 1, analogue unit divides；

Step 2, Social Ecology hydrology Evolution Simulation model is established, including：

Step 2.1, the state variable in modeling unit is set；

Step 2.2, system dynamic course equation is established；

Step 3, simulation phase and preparation model input data are determined；

Step 4, main parameter is determined；

Step 5, solving model and usage history data calibration parameter；

Step 6, simulation obtains evolutionary process.

The features of the present invention also resides in,

The step 1 is specially：Determine the basin perimeter of research, research range is divided into upstream and middle and lower reaches two Modeling unit.

The step 2.1 is specifically, each modeling unit includes Hydrology, the ecosystem, social system and warp Ji system, for general Arid Area, mainly by an agricultural society, other economic departments, such as work in economic system Industry, ignored, the state variable involved in each unit is as follows：

(1) reservoir storage W, unit m³.W represents the assignable water resource of modeling unit.

(2) vegetation coverage V_C, dimensionless, value range [0,1].V_CNatural vegetation is represented, by can be determined with water.It It is defined as the area of natural vegetation covering and the area ratio of analogue unit.

(3) irrigated crop area ratio R_I, dimensionless, value range [0,1].R_IBe defined as the area of irrigated crop with The area ratio of analogue unit.

(4) population N, with 10⁴People is unit.

The step 2.2 in hydrology subsystem, biological subsystem, social economy's subsystem specifically, establish micro- respectively Divide equation, describe the evolutionary process of system state variables, specifically,

Step 2.2.1, establishes the water balance fundamental equation of hydrology subsystem；

Step 2.2.2, establishes the natural vegetation Evolution Dynamics equation of biological subsystem；

Step 2.2.3, establishes the kinetics equation of social economy's subsystem.

The step 2.2.1 specifically,

Based on year scale, water consumption equilibrium equation represents the leading hydrologic process of system, then the water balance equation of upstream For：

Wherein, P is annual precipitation, E_tFor the year evapotranspiration amount of natural vegetation, E_cTo irrigate crops

Year evapotranspiration amount, E_bFor the year evaporation capacity in exposed desert, unit is mm/yr, if falling on exposed

The precipitation evaporating completely in desert, and have enough water supply, evapotranspiration amount can be calculated with following equation：

Wherein, Ep is year potential evaporation amount, and unit mm/yr, kt and kc are respectively to be used for calculating naturally

Vegetation and the empirical coefficient of crops actual evaporation.Q_inUFor upstream inbound traffics, unit m³/ yr,

It is set to the observation runoff of alura.Q_outUFor upstream outflow, unit m³/ yr, it depends on

In Q_inU, W_U, V_CLAnd its dependent variable.Q_outUCalculated according to formula (3)：

Q_outU=q₁(Q_inU)+q₂(W_U)+q₃(V_CL) (3)

Wherein, q₁,q₂,q₃It is and Q_inU,W_U,V_CLCorresponding function.q₁As upstream becomes a mandarin (Q_inU) increase and increase, q₂With W, you can distribute the increase of water resource and increase, q₃Increase with the increase of downstream vegetative coverage, it represents the ring of government Guarantor's policy.Q_outUIt is according to the existing water operation convention in Tarim Basin, is calculated with certain step, calculation formula is such as Under.

Q_outU=max { P_UA_U-E_tUA_UV_CU-E_cUA_UR_IU-E_bUA_U(1-V_CU-R_IU)+Q_inU,k_QQ_inU} (4)

The year evapotranspiration amount of natural vegetation, E_tU, calculation formula be：

Irrigate the year evapotranspiration amount of vegetation, E_cU, it is

The water balance equation in downstream is：

Wherein, similar, the Q in pa-rameter symbols therein and upstream formula (1)_inLRepresent downstream inbound traffics, and, downstream enters Flow Q_inLEqual to upstream outflow Q_outU。

Q_inL=Q_outU (8)

Exposed soil evaporation only is from precipitation, exposed soil evaporation E_bLCalculation formula be

If natural water cannot meet to need water, vegetation water consumption cannot be fully met, and the minimum water consumption of natural vegetation is just It is local precipitation, the year evapotranspiration amount E of natural vegetation_tLCalculation formula is

Irrigate the year evapotranspiration amount E of vegetation_cLIt is

Specifically, natural vegetation Evolution Dynamics equation is described by Levins models, this is the step 2.2.2 One logistic growth curve equation, this Vegetation changes kinetic model are applied and verified in drought-hit area basin.Drought-hit area The Vegetation changes kinetics equation of basin upstream is：

Wherein, g_VFor breeding potential, m_VFor the death rate, V_CMFor V_CMaximum, this value can determine or by public affairs by artificial planning Formula (13) is definite, wherein, V_CMUIt is the ratio for the vegetation area area and analogue unit area that can be supported using water-use for environment amount Value.

The breeding potential and the death rate of natural vegetation depend on environment water supply, and water supply is essentially from underground water.It is relied on The calculation formula of relation is,

Wherein, g_VU,m_VU1,m_VU2And r_EWSUCIt is empirical parameter.r_EWSIt is environment water supply rate, it is that available water is needed with environment The ratio between water, dimensionless, value range are [0,1].

r_EWSUCIt is r_EWSUThreshold value, r_EWSUCalculation formula be：

Wherein, T be environmental Water Requirement calculate time step, W_ERUIt is environmental Water Requirement.

Similarly, Vegetation changes kinetics equation is

The step 2.2.3 is specifically, the evolution of irrigated crop area is to discard driving by wasteland reclamation and farmland , these two aspects corresponds to breeding potential and the death rate respectively in Vegetation changes kinetics equation, this evolution can generally by Logistic growth model describes, and the dynamic evolution equation of the irrigated crop area ratio of drought-hit area basin upstream is,

Wherein, g_RU,g_R2UAnd g_R3UFor the reclamation of wasteland rate of new irrigated farmland.m_RU,m_R2UAnd m_R3UFor the discarded of existing irrigated farmland Rate.R_IMUFor R_IUMaximum.This value is provided by artificial planning, or is determined by following using duty：

g_RUAnd m_RUFor influence of the utilized water resources to irrigated farmland area.g_R2UAnd m_R2UFor drought-hit area under Environment Protection Policy Influence of the basin upstream natural vegetation to irrigated farmland area.g_R3UAnd m_R3UFor under Environment Protection Policy drought-hit area lower reaches from Right influence of the vegetation to upstream irrigated farmland area.

Similarly, the irrigated crop area ratio Evolution Equation of drought-hit area lower reaches is

In social economic system, population evolution equation is traditionally simulated by competitive model, although usually It can be influenced at the same time be subject to population migration and other factors.Breeding potential and the death rate are all determined by environment and agricultural.Drought The population evolution kinetics equation of area basin upstream is

Wherein, g_NUAnd g_N2UFor population breeding potential and move into rate.m_NUAnd m_N2UFor the death rate and emigration.N_MFor N most Big value, this value can be determined by programming and distribution.

Similarly, the population evolution kinetics equation of drought-hit area lower reaches is

The constitutive relation formula of each subsystem describes respectively.g_VLAnd m_VLConstitutive relation be：

g_RUAnd m_RUConstitutive relation be：

Wherein, g_RU0, m_RU1,m_RU2And r_WUCIt is parameter.r_WUIrrigation water supply rate, it is dimensionless number, value range be [0, 1]。r_WUCIt is r_WUThreshold value, calculation formula is,

Wherein, W_IRUIt is irrigation requirement.

g_R2UAnd m_R2UConstitutive relation be

Wherein, g_R2U0,m_R2U1,m_R2U2And V_CUCIt is parameter.

g_R3UAnd m_R3UConstitutive relation be

Wherein, g_R3U0,m_R3U1,m_R3U2And V_CLCIt is parameter.

g_RL,m_RL,g_R2L, and m_R2LConstitutive relation be

The implication of variable is in table 3.

g_NUAnd m_NUConstitutive relation be

Wherein, g_NU0,m_NU1,m_NU2And V_CUCNUIt is parameter.

g_N2UAnd m_N2UConstitutive relation be

Wherein, g_N2U0,m_N2U1,m_N2U2And R_IUCNUIt is parameter.

g_NL,m_NL,g_N2L, and m_N2LConstitutive relation be

The step 3 is specifically, model is calculated using identical time step, in order to describe more accurately to change Journey, the time step of model selection are generally 1 year, and material calculation can be set in parameter.The primary condition of model is inputting Need to set according to research in file, the input data of model includes the precipitation for flowing into flow, simulating the phase of coboundary and dives In evaporation capacity.Scale-model investigation object coboundary is inputted if flow, then the data on flows for needing to prepare to flow into upstream units is made For mode input data.Prepare the input data of precipitation and potential evaporation amount respectively for upstream and downstream unit.

The step 5 is specifically, the controlling equation of model is the ordinary differential system that step 2 is established, using increasing income ODE's solver solve.Obtain the historical process analogue value of system state variables, the analogue value and state variable are gone through The relatively rear adjusting parameter value of history measured data so that historical process obtains best simulation.Parameter value is the ginseng of calibration at this time Numerical value.

The step 6 specifically, EVOLUTION EQUATION after parameter calibration is carried out using step 5 carries out simulation and forecast, if The precipitation and potential evaporation amount data scenarios in fixed one period of future, input model, solves differential equation group, when obtaining future The analogue value of phase Social Ecology hydrology evolutionary process.

The invention has the advantages that by establishing between the state variables such as population, irrigated area, natural vegetation area Feedback, simulates to obtain the evolution process of these variables using kinetics equation, solves the method that existing scene is set and does not account for The problem of influence of the water shortage environment to water consumption and society are to the accommodation of water, obtains relatively reliable society-life State-hydrology evolutionary process.

Brief description of the drawings

Fig. 1 is the flow chart of basin Social Ecology Hydrology evolutionary process simulation；

Fig. 2 is the coupled relation figure of basin Social Ecology Hydrology.

Embodiment

The present invention is described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and detailed description.

A kind of basin Social Ecology hydrology evolutionary process analogy method based on kinetics equation, as shown in Figure 1, specifically pressing Implement according to following steps：

Step 1, analogue unit divides.

Determine the basin perimeter of research, the boundary of basin upstream and middle and lower reaches is determined according to the custom of hydrographic water resource industry Line, determines basin upstream and the line of demarcation of middle and lower reaches according to the custom of hydrographic water resource industry, research range is divided into upstream With two modeling units of middle and lower reaches.

Step 2, Social Ecology hydrology Evolution Simulation model is established；

Step 2.1, the state variable in modeling unit is set；

Each modeling unit includes Hydrology, the ecosystem, social system and economic system, as shown in table 1, for General Arid Area, mainly by an agricultural society, other economic departments are ignored (such as industry) in economic system, State variable involved in each unit is as follows：

(4) population N, with 10⁴People is unit.

Step 2.2, system dynamic course equation is established：

In each modeling unit, it is used for describing the dynamic process of these systems using four ODEs：Water storage Amount represents hydrology subsystem, and natural vegetation coverage represents biological subsystem, and irrigated crop area represents Economy subsystem, population Represent social subsystems.The area of modeling unit is denoted as A, be designated as under symbol U represent upstream, under be designated as L represent downstream.

The phantom frame that the 1 Social Ecology hydrology of table develops

The differential equation is established in hydrology subsystem, biological subsystem, social economy's subsystem respectively, description system mode becomes The evolutionary process of amount, the coupled relation of basin Social Ecology Hydrology are as shown in Figure 2.The step of establishing evolutionary process equation has Body includes：

Step 2.2.1, establishes the water balance fundamental equation of hydrology subsystem：

Based on year scale, water consumption equilibrium equation represents the leading hydrologic process of system,

Then the water balance equation of upstream is：

Wherein, P is annual precipitation, E_tFor the year evapotranspiration amount of natural vegetation, E_cTo irrigate the year evapotranspiration amount of crops, E_bFor the year evaporation capacity in exposed desert, unit is mm/yr, if falling on the precipitation evaporating completely in exposed desert, and is had enough Supply water, evapotranspiration amount can be calculated with following equation：

Wherein, Ep is year potential evaporation amount, and unit mm/yr, kt and kc are respectively to be used for calculating natural vegetation and crops The empirical coefficient of actual evaporation.Q_inUFor upstream inbound traffics, unit m³/ yr, is set to the observation runoff of alura.Q_outUFor Upstream outflow, unit m³/ yr, it depends on Q_inU, W_U, V_CLAnd its dependent variable.Q_outUCalculated according to formula (3)：

Q_outU=q₁(Q_inU)+q₂(W_U)+q₃(V_CL) (3)

Wherein, q₁,q₂,q₃It is and Q_inU,W_U,V_CLCorresponding function.q₁As upstream becomes a mandarin (Q_inU) increase and increase, q₂With W, you can distribute the increase of water resource and increase, q₃Increase with the increase of downstream vegetative coverage, it represents the ring of government Guarantor's policy.Q_outUIt is according to the existing water operation convention in Tarim Basin, is calculated with certain step, calculation formula is such as Under,

Irrigate the year evapotranspiration amount of vegetation, E_cU, it is

The water balance equation in downstream is：

Q_inL=Q_outU (8)

Irrigate the year evapotranspiration amount E of vegetation_cLIt is

Step 2.2.2, establishes the natural vegetation Evolution Dynamics equation of biological subsystem：

Natural vegetation Evolution Dynamics equation is described by Levins models, this is a logistic growth curve side Journey, this Vegetation changes kinetic model are applied and verified in drought-hit area basin.The Vegetation changes power of drought-hit area basin upstream Learning equation is：

Wherein, g_VU,m_VU1,m_VU2And r_EWSUCIt is empirical parameter.r_EWSIt is environment water supply rate, it is that available water is needed with environment The ratio between water, dimensionless, value range are [0,1].r_EWSUCIt is r_EWSUThreshold value, r_EWSUCalculation formula be：

Similarly, Vegetation changes kinetics equation is

Step 2.2.3, establishes the kinetics equation of social economy's subsystem：

The evolution of irrigated crop area is to discard driving by wasteland reclamation and farmland, and these two aspects is moved in Vegetation changes Breeding potential and the death rate are corresponded in mechanical equation respectively, this evolution can be described generally by logistic growth model, The dynamic evolution equation of the irrigated crop area ratio of drought-hit area basin upstream is

g_RUAnd m_RUConstitutive relation be：

Wherein, W_IRUIt is irrigation requirement.

g_R2UAnd m_R2UConstitutive relation be

Wherein, g_R2U0,m_R2U1,m_R2U2And V_CUCIt is parameter.

g_R3UAnd m_R3UConstitutive relation be

Wherein, g_R3U0,m_R3U1,m_R3U2And V_CLCIt is parameter.

g_RL,m_RL,g_R2L, and m_R2LConstitutive relation be

The implication of variable is in table 3.

g_NUAnd m_NUConstitutive relation be

Wherein, g_NU0,m_NU1,m_NU2And V_CUCNUIt is parameter.

g_N2UAnd m_N2UConstitutive relation be

Wherein, g_N2U0,m_N2U1,m_N2U2And R_IUCNUIt is parameter.

g_NL,m_NL,g_N2L, and m_N2LConstitutive relation be

The implication of parameter is in table 3.

Step 3, simulation phase and preparation model input data are determined.

Model is calculated using identical time step, in order to describe more accurately change procedure, the time of model selection Step-length is generally 1 year, and material calculation can be set in parameter.The primary condition of model is in input file according to research needs Setting, general value such as table 2.

The general value of 2 system state variables of table

The input data of model includes the precipitation and potential evaporation amount that flow into flow, simulate the phase of coboundary.Model is ground Object coboundary is studied carefully if flow inputs, then the data on flows for needing to prepare to flow into upstream units is as mode input data. Prepare the input data of precipitation and potential evaporation amount respectively for upstream and downstream unit.

Step 4, main parameter is determined.

The general value of major parameter is as shown in table 3.

The general value of 3 major parameter of table, subscript U represent upstream units, and subscript L represents downstream units

Step 5, solving model and usage history data calibration parameter.

The controlling equation of model is the ordinary differential system that step 2 is established, and uses the ODE's solver increased income Solve.Obtain the historical process analogue value of system state variables, adjusted after the history measured data of the analogue value and state variable Whole parameter value so that historical process obtains best simulation.Parameter value is the parameter value of calibration at this time.

Step 6, simulation obtains evolutionary process.

The EVOLUTION EQUATION after parameter calibration is carried out using step 5 to carry out simulation and forecast, sets the drop in a following period Water and potential evaporation amount data scenarios, input model, solves differential equation group, obtains the evolution of the future period Social Ecology hydrology The analogue value of process.

Claims

1. a kind of basin Social Ecology hydrology evolutionary process analogy method based on kinetics equation, it is characterised in that specifically press Implement according to following steps：

Step 1, analogue unit divides；

Step 2, Social Ecology hydrology Evolution Simulation model is established, including,

Step 2.1, the state variable in modeling unit is set；

Step 2.2, system dynamic course equation is established；

Step 3, simulation phase and preparation model input data are determined；

Step 4, main parameter is determined；

Step 5, solving model and usage history data calibration parameter；

Step 6, simulation obtains evolutionary process.

2. the basin Social Ecology hydrology evolutionary process analogy method according to claim 1 based on kinetics equation, its It is characterized in that, the step 1 is specially：Determine the basin perimeter of research, research range is divided into upstream and middle and lower reaches two A modeling unit.

3. the basin Social Ecology hydrology evolutionary process analogy method according to claim 1 based on kinetics equation, its It is characterized in that, the step 2.1 is specifically, each modeling unit includes Hydrology, the ecosystem, social system and warp Ji system, for general Arid Area, mainly by an agricultural society, other economic departments, such as work in economic system Industry, ignored, the state variable involved in each unit is as follows：

(1) reservoir storage W, unit m³, the assignable water resource of W expression modeling units,

(2) vegetation coverage V_C, dimensionless, value range [0,1]；V_CNatural vegetation is represented, by can be determined with water；It is determined Justice is the area of natural vegetation covering and the area ratio of analogue unit；

(3) irrigated crop area ratio R_I, dimensionless, value range [0,1]；R_IIt is defined as area and the simulation of irrigated crop The area ratio of unit；

(4) population N, with 10⁴People is unit.

4. the basin Social Ecology hydrology evolutionary process analogy method according to claim 1 based on kinetics equation, its It is characterized in that, the step 2.2 in hydrology subsystem, biological subsystem, social economy's subsystem specifically, establish micro- respectively Divide equation, describe the evolutionary process of system state variables, specifically,

Step 2.2.3, establishes the kinetics equation of social economy's subsystem.

5. the basin Social Ecology hydrology evolutionary process analogy method according to claim 4 based on kinetics equation, its Be characterized in that, the step 2.2.1 specifically,

Based on year scale, water consumption equilibrium equation represents the leading hydrologic process of system, then the water balance equation of upstream is：

Wherein, P is annual precipitation, E_tFor the year evapotranspiration amount of natural vegetation, E_cTo irrigate the year evapotranspiration amount of crops, E_bFor The year evaporation capacity in exposed desert, unit are mm/yr, if falling on the precipitation evaporating completely in exposed desert, and have enough water supply, Evapotranspiration amount can be calculated with following equation：

Wherein, Ep is year potential evaporation amount, and unit mm/yr, kt and kc are respectively to be used for calculating natural vegetation and crops reality The empirical coefficient of evaporation capacity；Q_inUFor upstream inbound traffics, unit m³/ yr, is set to the observation runoff of alura；Q_outUFor upstream Outflow, unit m³/ yr, it depends on Q_inU, W_U, V_CLAnd its dependent variable；Q_outUCalculated according to formula (3)：

Q_outU=q₁(Q_inU)+q₂(W_U)+q₃(V_CL) (3)

Wherein, q₁,q₂,q₃It is and Q_inU,W_U,V_CLCorresponding function；q₁As upstream becomes a mandarin (Q_inU) increase and increase, q₂With W, The increase of water resource can be distributed and increased, q₃Increase with the increase of downstream vegetative coverage, it represents the environmentally friendly political affairs of government Plan；Q_outUIt is according to the existing water operation convention in Tarim Basin, is calculated with certain step, calculation formula is as follows；

Irrigate the year evapotranspiration amount of vegetation, E_cU, it is

The water balance equation in downstream is：

Wherein, similar, the Q in pa-rameter symbols therein and upstream formula (1)_inLRepresent downstream inbound traffics, and, downstream inbound traffics Q_inLEqual to upstream outflow Q_outU；

Q_inL=Q_outU (8)

If natural water cannot meet to need water, vegetation water consumption cannot be fully met, the minimum water consumption of natural vegetation be exactly when Ground precipitation, the year evapotranspiration amount E of natural vegetation_tLCalculation formula is

Irrigate the year evapotranspiration amount E of vegetation_cLIt is

6. the basin Social Ecology hydrology evolutionary process analogy method according to claim 4 based on kinetics equation, its Be characterized in that, the step 2.2.2 specifically, natural vegetation Evolution Dynamics equation is described by Levins models, this It is a logistic growth curve equation, this Vegetation changes kinetic model is applied and verified in drought-hit area basin；Drought The Vegetation changes kinetics equation of area basin upstream is：

Wherein, g_VFor breeding potential, m_VFor the death rate, V_CMFor V_CMaximum, this value can determine or by formula by artificial planning (13) determine, wherein, V_CMUIt is the ratio for the vegetation area area and analogue unit area that can be supported using water-use for environment amount Value；

The breeding potential and the death rate of natural vegetation depend on environment water supply, and water supply is essentially from underground water；Its dependence Calculation formula be,

Wherein, g_VU,m_VU1,m_VU2And r_EWSUCIt is empirical parameter；r_EWSIt is environment water supply rate, it is available water and environmental Water Requirement The ratio between, dimensionless, value range is [0,1]；

r_EWSUCIt is r_EWSUThreshold value, r_EWSUCalculation formula be：

Wherein, T be environmental Water Requirement calculate time step, W_ERUIt is environmental Water Requirement；

Similarly, Vegetation changes kinetics equation is

7. the basin Social Ecology hydrology evolutionary process analogy method according to claim 4 based on kinetics equation, its It is characterized in that, the step 2.2.3 is specifically, the evolution of irrigated crop area is to discard driving by wasteland reclamation and farmland , these two aspects corresponds to breeding potential and the death rate respectively in Vegetation changes kinetics equation, this evolution can generally by Logistic growth model describes, and the dynamic evolution equation of the irrigated crop area ratio of drought-hit area basin upstream is,

Wherein, g_RU,g_R2UAnd g_R3UFor the reclamation of wasteland rate of new irrigated farmland；m_RU,m_R2UAnd m_R3UFor the discarded rate of existing irrigated farmland； R_IMUFor R_IUMaximum；This value is provided by artificial planning, or is determined by following using duty：

g_RUAnd m_RUFor influence of the utilized water resources to irrigated farmland area；g_R2UAnd m_R2UFor under Environment Protection Policy on the basin of drought-hit area Swim influence of the natural vegetation to irrigated farmland area；g_R3UAnd m_R3UFor the natural vegetation of drought-hit area lower reaches under Environment Protection Policy Influence to upstream irrigated farmland area；

In social economic system, population evolution equation is traditionally simulated by competitive model, although usually can be same When influenced be subject to population migration and other factors；Breeding potential and the death rate are all determined by environment and agricultural；Flow drought-hit area The population evolution kinetics equation of domain upstream is

Wherein, g_NUAnd g_N2UFor population breeding potential and move into rate；m_NUAnd m_N2UFor the death rate and emigration；N_MFor the maximum of N, This value can be determined by programming and distribution；

The constitutive relation formula of each subsystem describes respectively；g_VLAnd m_VLConstitutive relation be：

g_RUAnd m_RUConstitutive relation be：

Wherein, g_RU0, m_RU1,m_RU2And r_WUCIt is parameter；r_WUIt is irrigation water supply rate, it is dimensionless number, and value range is [0,1]； r_WUCIt is r_WUThreshold value, calculation formula is,

Wherein, W_IRUIt is irrigation requirement；

g_R2UAnd m_R2UConstitutive relation be

Wherein, g_R2U0,m_R2U1,m_R2U2And V_CUCIt is parameter；

g_R3UAnd m_R3UConstitutive relation be

Wherein, g_R3U0,m_R3U1,m_R3U2And V_CLCIt is parameter；

g_RL,m_RL,g_R2L, and m_R2LConstitutive relation be

The implication of variable is in table 3；

g_NUAnd m_NUConstitutive relation be

Wherein, g_NU0,m_NU1,m_NU2And V_CUCNUIt is parameter；

g_N2UAnd m_N2UConstitutive relation be

Wherein, g_N2U0,m_N2U1,m_N2U2And R_IUCNUIt is parameter；

g_NL,m_NL,g_N2L, and m_N2LConstitutive relation be

8. the basin Social Ecology hydrology evolutionary process analogy method according to claim 1 based on kinetics equation, institute The step 3 stated is specifically, model is calculated using identical time step, in order to describe more accurately change procedure, model choosing The time step selected is generally 1 year, and material calculation can be set in parameter；The primary condition of model basis in input file Research needs to set, and the input data of model includes the precipitation and potential evaporation amount that flow into flow, simulate the phase of coboundary；Mould Type research object coboundary is inputted if flow, then the data on flows for needing to prepare to flow into upstream units is as mode input number According to；Prepare the input data of precipitation and potential evaporation amount respectively for upstream and downstream unit.

9. the basin Social Ecology hydrology evolutionary process analogy method according to claim 1 based on kinetics equation, institute The step 5 stated is specifically, the ordinary differential system that the controlling equation of model is established for step 2, uses the ordinary differential side to increase income Journey solver solves；Obtain the history measured data of the historical process analogue value of system state variables, the analogue value and state variable Compare rear adjusting parameter value so that historical process obtains best simulation；Parameter value is the parameter value of calibration at this time.

10. the basin Social Ecology hydrology evolutionary process analogy method according to claim 1 based on kinetics equation, institute The step 6 stated using the EVOLUTION EQUATION after step 5 progress parameter calibration specifically, carry out simulation and forecast, setting is one following The precipitation and potential evaporation amount data scenarios in period, input model, solves differential equation group, obtains future period Social Ecology The analogue value of hydrology evolutionary process.