CN107886358A - A kind of Agricultural Machinery Equipment service of goods needing forecasting method - Google Patents

A kind of Agricultural Machinery Equipment service of goods needing forecasting method Download PDF

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Publication number
CN107886358A
CN107886358A CN201711088618.8A CN201711088618A CN107886358A CN 107886358 A CN107886358 A CN 107886358A CN 201711088618 A CN201711088618 A CN 201711088618A CN 107886358 A CN107886358 A CN 107886358A
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agricultural machinery
msub
demand
service
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胡耀光
周瑞
闻敬谦
刘雨佶
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Beijing Institute of Technology BIT
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Beijing Institute of Technology BIT
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    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06QINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q30/00Commerce
    • G06Q30/02Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
    • G06Q30/0201Market modelling; Market analysis; Collecting market data
    • G06Q30/0202Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06QINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/20Administration of product repair or maintenance

Abstract

The present invention provides a kind of Agricultural Machinery Equipment service of goods needing forecasting method, realizes the basis that the emergent supply of the quick response of service, Service Source is safeguarded to equipment cluster, has also ensured equipment cluster reliability service.Comprise the following steps:Step 1: Agricultural Machinery Equipment safeguards that Service Source demand structure is analyzed;Step 2: Agricultural Machinery Equipment safeguards Service Source requirement forecasting signature analysis;Step 3: equipment maintenance influencing factors for demand is determined based on grey correlation analysis;Step 4: safeguard that BP neural network model is established in demand for services prediction for Agricultural Machinery Equipment:It is made up of an input layer, two hidden layers and an output layer, it is not connected to between node layer, the input of a node layer under the influence of output only per node layer, BP neural network structure, network training, network verification and prediction are specifically included, safeguards that demand for services is predicted so as to complete Agricultural Machinery Equipment.

Description

A kind of Agricultural Machinery Equipment service of goods needing forecasting method
Technical field
It is especially a kind of towards Agricultural Machinery Equipment product the present invention relates to a kind of Agricultural Machinery Equipment service of goods needing forecasting method Cluster safeguards demand for services Forecasting Methodology.
Background technology
Currently, " manufacturing service " is known together extensively among industrial circle, and equipment manufacturing business is using product as core The competition of the heart has been enter into low margin age, and its major profit has been more that product is after sale visitor not just from production marketing The value-added service that family provides.The practice of industrial quarters absolutely proves in recent years:The development trend of manufacturing industry serviceization, bring to production The active demand of product O&M service ability lifting.
The principal mode that on-site maintenance is equipment Manufacturing service is provided for equipment.Service network is to ensure to service Provider can provide the network that maintenance service in time, satisfied is formed for customer.In general service network is by equipment manufacturing The service providers such as enterprise, supplier of spare parts, service provider are formed by connecting by certain membership credentials, that is, Service Source Acquisition, service ability formation and tangible products and invisible service deliver the network of involved enterprise's composition.Service station conduct Serving network node, it is the website for receiving customer service request and respective service being provided.For equipment maintenance service, service The stand attendant that should keep certain, servicer etc. safeguards Service Source, to meet the equipment maintenance demand occurred at any time in time. In general, set service network can be accomplished preferably to respond to the equipment maintenance service request of fixed position, meet clothes Business demand.But for the equipment cluster maintenance needs under dynamic and distributed environment, with moving characteristic, due to moving for geographical position etc. State changes and to safeguarding that response requires the characteristics of high, and the normal needs of its maintenance activity are dependent on accurately requirement forecasting and optimized Configuration.
Important component of the talents for agri-mechanization as equipment manufacture, it is to improve production efficiency, realizes that resource is effective Utilize, promote the indispensable instrument of agricultural sustainable development, to ensure national food security, promote agricultural production efficiency, Change increasing peasant income mode and promote rural development to play very important effect.However, exist during agricultural mechanical operation Trans-regional, operating environment and job task DYNAMIC DISTRIBUTION, work operations time Relatively centralized, the features such as operation intensity is big, its Safeguard that the more problems of service facing need to solve.Existing Agricultural Machinery Equipment, which is safeguarded, main relies on existing main of equipment Manufacturing The service network being made up of service station.It is relatively certain yet with the service ability in the existing service station of enterprise, and network shortage is dynamic State adaptability, therefore it is explosive in safeguarding to be directed to trans-regional product, DYNAMIC DISTRIBUTION, the Agricultural Machinery Equipment cluster of seasonal concentrative operation Breakdown Maintenance seem beyond one's ability.
Therefore, the characteristics of for Agricultural Machinery Equipment cluster maintenance needs with season time, spatial geographical locations dynamic change, need Want a kind of maintenance needs Forecasting Methodology towards Agricultural Machinery Equipment cluster, maintenance Service Source (such as service network of Support Equipment operation Point, maintenance tool, attendant and servicer etc.) accommodation, optimised service network design and cloth can be carried out in advance Office, to meet the equipment maintenance demand of dynamic change in time.
The content of the invention
The present invention in order to adapt to dynamic distributed cluster equipment needs, with the change of operating area, tie up by dynamic mobile, equipment The demand for services of shield also can therewith dynamic change the characteristics of, there is provided a kind of Agricultural Machinery Equipment service of goods needing forecasting method, realize The basis of the emergent supply of the quick response of service, Service Source is safeguarded to equipment cluster, has also ensured that equipment cluster is reliably transported OK.
What the present invention was achieved through the following technical solutions:
A kind of Agricultural Machinery Equipment service of goods needing forecasting method, comprises the following steps:
Step 1: Agricultural Machinery Equipment safeguards that Service Source demand structure is analyzed:According to the service need of corresponding region equipment maintenance Ask, the decision-making that maximum can meet the benefit of client is made on the premise of limited resources total amount;The level of described demand for services Feature shows as three kinds of situations, when geographic level characteristics, second, managerial level characteristics, third, service of goods demand Layer of structure feature;
Step 2: Agricultural Machinery Equipment safeguards Service Source requirement forecasting signature analysis:Predict regional to Service Source Quantity required, service network is built on this basis, entered on the premise of Service Source is limited using BP neural net methods Row Agricultural Machinery Equipment maintenance service requirement forecasting;
Step 3: equipment maintenance influencing factors for demand is determined based on grey correlation analysis:Analyze what is obtained by step 2 Agricultural Machinery Equipment maintenance service requirement forecasting result, being associated property of influence factor is analyzed, so as to identify key factor therein, Input as subsequent prediction model;
Described correlation analysis is closed by the different degree of development trend between gray prediction identification system factor Connection property analysis, so that it is determined that influenceing the key factor of Agricultural Machinery Equipment maintenance needs;Comprise the following steps that:Step 1.1 Data Collection: Clearly required field first, and then Data Collection is carried out from different system, and the statistics on basis is completed on this basis Analysis, data preparation is carried out for subsequent prediction;
Step 1.2 Grey Relational Model is established and solved:Each factor is analyzed to region agriculture using Grey Incidence Analysis The influence of machine equipment maintenance demand for services amount;The step of grey correlation analysis, is as follows:
Step1:Establish the raw data matrix x of each index of correlation in above tablei
xi=(xi(1), xi(2) ..., xi(k)) ...)
Wherein xi(k) initial data of the i factors in kth year is represented;
Step2:First value matrix x '
Above-mentioned raw data matrix is handled using equalization method, nondimensionalization processing is carried out to matrix, obtained
X '=(xi(1)/xi(1), xi(2)/xi(1) ..., xi(k)/xi(1)) ...)=(xi' (1), xi' (2) ..., xi′ (k) ...)
Step3:Seek difference sequence Δ0i=(k)
Step4:Calculate correlation coefficient ξ0i(k)
Wherein φ is resolution ratio, for improving the significance of difference between incidence coefficient, φ ∈ (0,1),
Further, the φ takes 0.5.
Step5:Calculate grey relational grade γ0i
Grey relational grade is
Step6:Relational degree taxis
A k, which is obtained, by above-mentioned steps ties up degree of association matrix, it is each by being ranked up acquisition to the size of matrix element Individual factor and the degree of association and its influence power caused by equipment maintenance demand for services.
Step 4: safeguard that BP neural network model is established in demand for services prediction for Agricultural Machinery Equipment:By input layer, two Individual hidden layer and an output layer are formed, and are not connected to between node layer, a node layer under the influence of the output per node layer only Input, specifically include BP neural network structure, network training and prediction.
Beneficial effects of the present invention:
The present invention carries out Systematic Analysis for the demand characteristic of Agricultural Machinery Equipment product maintenance service, based on Agricultural Machinery Equipment system The historical data for making enterprise's different dimensions is precisely predicted equipment maintenance demand, is the dynamic distributed Agricultural Machinery Equipment collection public sentiment Maintenance service under border provides the decision-making foundation of resource optimization resource distribution, to meet the equipment maintenance need of dynamic change in time Ask, realize effective delivery of the service of maintenance.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is Agricultural Machinery Equipment service of goods needing forecasting method flow chart of the present invention;
Fig. 2 predicts flow chart for BP neural network in the present invention.
Embodiment
The preferred embodiment of the present invention is elaborated below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings,
The present invention specifically includes Agricultural Machinery Equipment and safeguards demand for services structural analysis, predicted characteristics analysis, influence factor association Spend prediction model construction and demand for services prediction.Specific framework is as shown in Figure 1:
Step 1:Agricultural Machinery Equipment safeguards that Service Source demand structure is analyzed
Safeguard that Service Source configures an inherently decision problem.According to the demand for services of corresponding region equipment maintenance, Being made on the premise of limited resources total amount maximum can meet the decision-making of the benefit of client.By to service of goods demand layer Analysis, the structure of resource placement's configuration can be specified.In general the level characteristics of service of goods demand show as three kinds of situations, When geographic level characteristics, such as some services of goods, its market can be divided into multiple regions or subdivision Sub- market;Second, managerial level characteristics, such as some service of goods customers can be divided into different classes of client;Three It is service of goods demand structure level characteristics.
By the specific level that is assigned to of the resource high-efficiency of fixed qty during resource distribution, therefore service of goods is needed The analysis of level is asked to be advantageous to the unit and granularity of the clear and definite resource distribution of enterprise.Agricultural Machinery Equipment enterprise maintenance service is born using region Duty system carries out O&M service, i.e. market is several market departments according to geographical position and administrative division by enterprise, each Market department includes several service stations again, and the Agricultural Machinery Equipment O&M that each service station is responsible in area of responsibility provides resource and supported Kimonos is pragmatic to be applied.Due to the distribution and dynamic of Agricultural Machinery Equipment group operation, enterprise's different zones product is to safeguarding service Demand dynamic change therewith.Therefore the present invention will safeguard that service needs using market department as object to the Agricultural Machinery Equipment of different market departments Ask and be predicted.
Step 2:Agricultural Machinery Equipment safeguards Service Source requirement forecasting signature analysis
The main purpose of demand for services prediction is quantity required of the Accurate Prediction regional to Service Source, basic herein The upper effective service network of structure, maximizes on the premise of Service Source is limited and meets dynamic distributed Agricultural Machinery Equipment Demand for services is safeguarded, the loss brought by equipment failure is reduced, further increases customer satisfaction degree.
The Maintenance Resource demand in one region is related to factors:Equipped in region recoverable amount, equipment enlistment age in region, Equip history run situation and repair etc..These information in different forms disperse be present in enterprise different system it In, such as maintenance service system is present in excel forms, marketing system etc. is present in list record.These data There is important reference value for regional service resource requirement prediction, prediction mould is established on the basis of to actual data analysis Type, and verified using the data of continuous renewal and then Optimized model, it can make it that last tentative data is more accurate. Therefore, the present invention by the historical record to enterprise's equipment maintenance, sales figure etc., analyze by other related datas, summarizes Agricultural Machinery Equipment cluster safeguards the general character of Service Source demand, refines the best model for summing up its suitable requirement forecasting.
Because Agricultural Machinery Equipment safeguards that demand for services is related to factors, it is main including equipment be in region, residing season, The region vehicle population, Agricultural Machinery Equipment workload, operating environment, area equipment running status and history repair status etc. because Element.There is the interaction of complexity between these factors, using conventional method it is difficult to set up one it is accurate and perfect pre- Survey model.Found by Literature Consult and analysis.BP neural network with to complicated nonlinear system prediction with well retouch Ability is stated, so the present invention carries out Agricultural Machinery Equipment maintenance service requirement forecasting using BP neural network method.
Step 3:Equipment maintenance influencing factors for demand based on grey correlation analysis determines
Understand that Agricultural Machinery Equipment safeguards that demand for services amount is influenceed by factors by step 2 analysis, specify its influence The practical function situation of factor has great importance for the prediction of follow-up maintenance demand for services.Generally recognize according to existing subjectivity For knowing, influence Agricultural Machinery Equipment and safeguard that the principal element of demand for services has:Agricultural Machinery Equipment region, residing season, the region Equip recoverable amount, Agricultural Machinery Equipment workload, operating environment, area equipment running status and history repair status etc..It will influence The larger factor of power can make predicted value more accurate as the input of forecast model, but redundancy is excessive in input data Precision of prediction can be caused to reduce simultaneously.Therefore, it is necessary to being analyzed according to the being associated property of influence factor listed by Subjective, So as to identify key factor therein, the input as subsequent prediction model.
Gray system is the transition system between white system and Black smoker.If the full detail of a certain system , it is known that it is then white system;If full detail is unknown, for Black smoker;Partial information is, it is known that partial information is unknown, then The system is gray system.Agricultural Machinery Equipment involved in the present invention safeguards demand for services system, and it is many to influence factor caused by demand It is more, but known and X factor simultaneously be present, it is consequently belonging to gray system.The present invention passes through gray prediction identification system factor Between development trend different degree, that is, being associated property analyze, so that it is determined that influence Agricultural Machinery Equipment maintenance needs it is crucial because Element.Gray prediction step is as follows:
1) Data Collection
Because above-mentioned related data is distributed in the different system for being stored in enterprise in different forms, grey correlation point is being carried out At the beginning of analysis, clearly required field, and then Data Collection is carried out from different system first, and basis is completed on this basis Statistical analysis, for subsequent prediction carry out data preparation.Perfect data form is wherein needed to design as shown in table 1 below:
Table 1:Agricultural Machinery Equipment safeguards demand for services influence factor table
2) Grey Relational Model is established and solved
Demand for services amount is safeguarded to region Agricultural Machinery Equipment using the subjective each factor of Grey Incidence Analysis analysis conventional Influence.The step of grey correlation analysis, is as follows:
Step1:Establish the raw data matrix x of each index of correlation in above tablei
xi=(xi(1), xi(2) ..., xi(k)) ...)
Wherein xi(k) initial data of the i factors in kth year is represented;
Step2:First value matrix x '
Above-mentioned original matrix is handled using equalization method, nondimensionalization processing is carried out to matrix, obtained
X '=(xi(1)/xi(1), xi(2)/xi(1) ..., xi(k)/xi(1)) ...)=(xi' (1), xi' (2) ..., xi′ (k) ...)
Step3:Seek difference sequence Δ0i=(k)
Step4:Calculate correlation coefficient ξ0i(k)
Wherein φ is resolution ratio, its role is to improve the significance of difference between incidence coefficient, φ ∈ (0,1), is led to Normal φ takes 0.5, and the present invention takes 0.5.
Step5:Calculate grey relational grade γ0i
Grey relational grade is
Step6:Relational degree taxis
A k is obtained by above-mentioned steps and ties up degree of association matrix, by the way that the size of matrix element is ranked up and can obtained Take each factor and the degree of association and its influence power caused by equipment maintenance demand for services in table 1.According to mould when subsequent prediction models Type demand chooses input item of the forward factor as BP neural network that sort.
Step 4:The BP neural network model for safeguarding demand for services prediction for Agricultural Machinery Equipment is established
BP neural network is the multilayer feedforward formula network of error back propagation, and it is hidden by an input layer, one or more Form containing layer and an output layer, be not connected to between node layer, a node layer is defeated under the influence of the output only per node layer Enter.Safeguard that demand for services needs to complete BP neural network structure, network training by BP neural network model prediction Agricultural Machinery Equipment With three partial contents of prediction.Specific BP neural network structure flow is as shown in Figure 2:
Step1:BP neural network mode input
Calculated by preceding step and choose season, region, area equipment recoverable amount, Agricultural Machinery Equipment workload, area equipment Input data of the larger factor of the workload degree of association as BP neural network, can fully reflect that Agricultural Machinery Equipment safeguards demand for services Geography, the time, Seasonal Characteristics, to reach more preferable analysis result.Therefore design Agricultural Machinery Equipment safeguards demand for services prediction BP neural network input data includes season, region, area equipment recoverable amount, Agricultural Machinery Equipment workload, area equipment workload 5 Dimension, uses X successively1,X2,…X5Represent.The specific data input of model be from 2008 to 2015 totally 15 years from January to 12 Month includes the numerical matrix of 5 correlative factors such as season, region, area equipment recoverable amount, predicts some month in 2016 The equipment maintenance demand for services value in individual region.Therefore understand that the output layer of BP neural network is tieed up for 1.
Step2:BP neural network model structure designs
Safeguard that the complexity of demand for services and nonlinear degree are higher in view of Agricultural Machinery Equipment, in order to improve the robust of network Property and computing accuracy, the present invention is using double hidden layer neural network structures.For the neuron number of two hidden-layer, and BP god Optimizing is carried out using intelligent optimization algorithm through network weight and threshold value, and then determines to be suitable for agricultural machinery equipment maintenance in present case and takes The BP neural network optimal parameter of business requirement forecasting.
Step3:BP network model parameter optimizations
Traditional BP neural network is because weights, threshold value are randomized, and node in hidden layer empirically determines, network evolution When be easily trapped into local optimum, and network robustness is poor.Therefore, the present invention is refreshing to BP using intelligent optimization algorithm genetic algorithm Parameter through network model optimizes.
If the nodes of hidden layer are respectively m1,m2, the weights of 5 dimension input parameters in Step1 use w successively1,w2,…w5 Represent, the weights of equipment maintenance demand number are represented with a.
The above-mentioned m of genetic algorithm optimization is used on this basis1,m2,w1,w2,…w5, a totally 8 parameters, will using real coding BP neural network corresponding to individual predicts error as ideal adaptation angle value.Predict that error E rror is specially root-mean-square error RSME, mean absolute deviation MABE weighted error.The population scale of genetic algorithm is 40, and iterations is 100 times, is used Matlab Algorithm for Solving, obtain the best of breed of above-mentioned 8 parameters.
The transfer function of BP neural network carries out best practice selection with training function using test method(s).
Step4:BP neural network model training
Choose certain Agricultural Machinery Equipment manufacturing enterprise in January, 2008 in December, 2015 data of totally 8 years, by corresponding sample number According to training set, checking collection and test set is divided into sequentially in time, wherein in January, 2008 in December, 2013 is training set, In January, 2014 to December collects for checking, and the data in January, 2015 in December, 2015 are test set.Arrange prepare training set and The sample of collection is verified, the Optimized model structure and parameter of BP neural network is determined according to method in above-mentioned Step3.
After model structure and parameter determine, input data carries out BP neural network model training, and the error of analysis model refers to Mark, the deconditioning when neural network forecast error amount is less than a certain numerical value, the BP neural network trained.
Step5:BP neural network is verified
The data in January, 2014 to December are verified to network.Inputted to obtain prediction error, analysis with checking sample The validity and accuracy of model.
Step6:Agricultural Machinery Equipment safeguards that demand for services is predicted
Neural network prediction some the month Agricultural Machinery Equipment maintenance clothes of some region in 2016 trained using above-mentioned Step5 The requirements of business, safeguard that demand for services is predicted so as to complete Agricultural Machinery Equipment.
Although combining accompanying drawing describes embodiments of the present invention, it will be apparent to those skilled in the art that not On the premise of departing from the principle of the invention, various modifications and improvements can be made, these also should be regarded as the protection for belonging to the present invention Scope.

Claims (4)

1. a kind of Agricultural Machinery Equipment service of goods needing forecasting method, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps:
Step 1: Agricultural Machinery Equipment safeguards that Service Source demand structure is analyzed:According to the demand for services of corresponding region equipment maintenance, Being made on the premise of limited resources total amount maximum can meet the decision-making of the benefit of client;The level characteristics table of described demand for services It is now three kinds of situations, when geographic level characteristics, second, managerial level characteristics, third, service of goods demand structure layer Secondary feature;
Step 2: Agricultural Machinery Equipment safeguards Service Source requirement forecasting signature analysis:Predict demand of the regional to Service Source Quantity, service network is built on this basis, agriculture is carried out using BP neural network method on the premise of Service Source is limited Machine equipment repair demand for services is predicted;
Step 3: equipment maintenance influencing factors for demand is determined based on grey correlation analysis:The agricultural machinery for analyzing to obtain by step 2 Equipment repair demand for services prediction result, being associated property of influence factor is analyzed, so as to identify key factor therein, as The input of subsequent prediction model;
Step 4: safeguard that BP neural network model is established in demand for services prediction for Agricultural Machinery Equipment:By an input layer, one or Multiple hidden layers and an output layer are formed, and are not connected to between node layer, one layer of section under the influence of the output per node layer only The input of point, specifically include BP neural network structure, network training and prediction.
A kind of 2. Agricultural Machinery Equipment service of goods needing forecasting method as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that described influence Factor includes:Agricultural Machinery Equipment region, residing season, the area equipment recoverable amount, Agricultural Machinery Equipment workload, operating environment, Area equipment running status and history repair status.
3. a kind of Agricultural Machinery Equipment service of goods needing forecasting method as claimed in claim 1 or 2, it is characterised in that described Correlation analysis is analyzed by different the being associated property of degree of development trend between gray prediction identification system factor, so as to really The fixing key factor for ringing Agricultural Machinery Equipment maintenance needs;Comprise the following steps that:
Step 1.1 Data Collection:Clearly required field first, and then Data Collection is carried out from different system, and herein On the basis of complete basis statistical analysis, for subsequent prediction carry out data preparation;
Step 1.2 Grey Relational Model is established and solved:Each factor is analyzed using Grey Incidence Analysis to fill region agricultural machinery The standby influence for safeguarding demand for services amount;The step of grey correlation analysis, is as follows:
Step1:Establish the raw data matrix x of each index of correlation in above tablei
xi=(xi(1),xi(2),…,xi(k)),…)
Wherein xi(k) initial data of the i factors in kth year is represented;
Step2:First value matrix x '
Above-mentioned raw data matrix is handled using equalization method, nondimensionalization processing is carried out to matrix, obtained
X '=(xi(1)/xi(1),xi(2)/xi(1),…,xi(k)/xi), (1) ...)=(xi′(1),xi′(2),…,xi′ (k),…)
Step3:Seek difference sequence Δ0i=(k)
<mrow> <msub> <mi>&amp;Delta;</mi> <mrow> <mn>0</mn> <mi>i</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>k</mi> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mo>=</mo> <mo>|</mo> <msubsup> <mi>x</mi> <mn>0</mn> <mi>i</mi> </msubsup> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>k</mi> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mo>-</mo> <msup> <msub> <mi>x</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> <mo>&amp;prime;</mo> </msup> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>k</mi> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mo>|</mo> <mo>,</mo> <msub> <mi>&amp;Delta;</mi> <mrow> <mn>0</mn> <mi>i</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>k</mi> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mo>=</mo> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <msub> <mi>&amp;Delta;</mi> <mrow> <mn>0</mn> <mi>i</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo>(</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mo>)</mo> <mo>,</mo> <msub> <mi>&amp;Delta;</mi> <mrow> <mn>0</mn> <mi>i</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo>(</mo> <mn>2</mn> <mo>)</mo> <mo>,</mo> <mn>...</mn> <mo>,</mo> <msub> <mi>&amp;Delta;</mi> <mrow> <mn>0</mn> <mi>i</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo>(</mo> <mi>k</mi> <mo>)</mo> <mo>,</mo> <mn>...</mn> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> </mrow>
Step4:Calculate correlation coefficient ξ0i(k)
<mrow> <msub> <mi>&amp;xi;</mi> <mrow> <mn>0</mn> <mi>i</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>k</mi> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mo>=</mo> <mfrac> <mrow> <munder> <mi>min</mi> <mi>i</mi> </munder> <munder> <mi>min</mi> <mi>k</mi> </munder> <msub> <mi>&amp;Delta;</mi> <mrow> <mn>0</mn> <mi>i</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>k</mi> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mo>+</mo> <mi>&amp;phi;</mi> <munder> <mi>max</mi> <mi>i</mi> </munder> <munder> <mi>max</mi> <mi>k</mi> </munder> <msub> <mi>&amp;Delta;</mi> <mrow> <mn>0</mn> <mi>i</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>k</mi> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> </mrow> <mrow> <msub> <mi>&amp;Delta;</mi> <mrow> <mn>0</mn> <mi>i</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>k</mi> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mo>+</mo> <mi>&amp;phi;</mi> <munder> <mi>max</mi> <mi>i</mi> </munder> <munder> <mi>max</mi> <mi>k</mi> </munder> <msub> <mi>&amp;Delta;</mi> <mrow> <mn>0</mn> <mi>i</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>k</mi> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> </mrow> </mfrac> </mrow>
Wherein φ is resolution ratio, for improving the significance of difference between incidence coefficient, φ ∈ (0,1),
Further, the φ takes 0.5.
Step5:Calculate grey relational grade γ0i
Grey relational grade is
Step6:Relational degree taxis
Obtain k by above-mentioned steps and tie up degree of association matrix, by the size of matrix element is ranked up obtain it is each because Element and the degree of association and its influence power caused by equipment maintenance demand for services.
4. a kind of Agricultural Machinery Equipment service of goods needing forecasting method as claimed in claim 1 or 2, it is characterised in that further Ground, the forward factor of relational degree taxis is chosen as BP nerve nets according to model requirements when the BP neural network model is established The input item of network.
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Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN108898245A (en) * 2018-06-15 2018-11-27 上海探能实业有限公司 A kind of needing forecasting method for Wind turbines components

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