CN107808257A - A kind of foreign trade risk assessment early warning system and its implementation - Google Patents
A kind of foreign trade risk assessment early warning system and its implementation Download PDFInfo
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- CN107808257A CN107808257A CN201711159360.6A CN201711159360A CN107808257A CN 107808257 A CN107808257 A CN 107808257A CN 201711159360 A CN201711159360 A CN 201711159360A CN 107808257 A CN107808257 A CN 107808257A
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Abstract
The present invention relates to Computer Applied Technology field, particularly a kind of foreign trade risk assessment early warning system and its implementation.The system of the present invention is differentiated by trade hazard, trade hazard is assessed and trade hazard monitoring and warning forms.Trade hazard, which differentiates to capture by network, obtains the fair trade case dynamic that authoritative institution issues, and participle parses and calculates commodity coefficient of frequency and country origin coefficient of frequency generation risk unit by Trade Remedy investigation commodity and promoter；Trade hazard is assessed carries out the matching analysis by risk unit and export enterprise data, calculation risk unit intensity score value, enterprise's infringement score value and country origin early warning score value, finally calculates risk index；Risk Monitoring early warning, monitored in real time respectively by Trade Remedy investigation venture entrepreneur seniority among brothers and sisters, enterprise's extent of damage seniority among brothers and sisters, country origin early warning seniority among brothers and sisters and risk index trend.The present invention provides a kind of fair trade risk identification, venture entrepreneur and enterprise's Risk assessment, risk index calculates and risk monitoring method, goes for carrying out Monitoring and forecasting system in real-time to fair trade friction risk.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to Computer Applied Technology field, particularly a kind of foreign trade risk assessment early warning system and in fact
Existing method.
Background technology
International trade protectionism further heats up, and trade friction form is increasingly various, and friction is occurred frequently to turn into one kind
Normality, huge restricting effect is caused to export-production.A kind of effective fair trade friction risk assessment early warning mechanism is established, is carried
The science of high decision-making, strengthen the ability to ward off risks of development of foreign trade, it is significant for foreign trade economy steady development.
The content of the invention
Present invention solves the technical problem that one of be to provide a kind of foreign trade risk assessment early warning system, it is automatic in time
Fair trade case dynamic is obtained, participle is parsed into risk unit, commodity coefficient of frequency and country origin coefficient of frequency is calculated, by risk
Unit and export enterprise data carry out the matching analysis, calculation risk unit intensity score value, enterprise's infringement score value, country origin early warning score value
With overall risk index.
Present invention solves the technical problem that two be to provide a kind of realization side of foreign trade risk assessment early warning system
Method.
The technical scheme that the present invention solves one of above-mentioned technical problem is：
Described system includes trade hazard discriminating, trade hazard is assessed and trade hazard monitoring and warning module；
Described trade hazard identification module, the fair trade case that the issue of acquisition authoritative institution is captured by network are moved
State, participle parse and calculate commodity coefficient of frequency and country origin coefficient of frequency generation risk by Trade Remedy investigation commodity and promoter
Unit；
Described trade hazard evaluation module, risk unit and export enterprise data are subjected to the matching analysis, calculation risk
Unit intensity score value, enterprise's infringement score value and country origin early warning score value, finally calculate risk index；
Described Risk Monitoring warning module, by Trade Remedy investigation venture entrepreneur seniority among brothers and sisters, enterprise's extent of damage seniority among brothers and sisters, state
Other early warning seniority among brothers and sisters and risk index trend are monitored in real time respectively.
Described risk unit includes unique key, the risk term of validity, risk commodity, promoter, commodity coefficient of frequency and state
Other six kinds of elements of coefficient of frequency.
In described trade hazard evaluation module, risk unit intensity score value Consideration accounts for including impacted enterprise's number
Than, impacted commodity year export amount accounting and commodity coefficient of frequency；
Enterprise's infringement score value Consideration includes enterprise's commodity year investigation number, the impacted commodity year export amount of enterprise accounts for
Than；
Country origin early warning score value Consideration includes country origin year export amount accounting and country origin coefficient of frequency.
The present invention solve above-mentioned technical problem two technical scheme be：
Described method comprises the following steps that：
The first step, is captured by network and obtains the fair trade case dynamic that authoritative institution issues, and participle parses and presses trade
Easily relief investigation commodity, promoter calculate commodity coefficient of frequency and country origin coefficient of frequency generation risk unit；
Second step, risk unit and export enterprise data are subjected to the matching analysis；
3rd step, formulate three kinds of classification risk indicators, including risk unit intensity index：Impacted enterprise's number accounting, by
Influence commodity year export amount accounting and commodity coefficient of frequency, enterprise's infringement index：Enterprise's commodity year investigation number, enterprise are impacted
Commodity year export amount accounting, country origin warning index：Country origin year export amount accounting and country origin coefficient of frequency；
4th step, not permissible value and firm appearance of each risk indicator in exponential desirability functions are formulated using expert's Evaluation Method
Perhaps it is worth, wherein, exponential desirability functions calculation formula is：D is effect score value, x is index
Actual value, xsFor not permissible value, xhFor firm feasible value, e be math constant be about 2.71828, ln be log；
5th step, calculate each risk indicator score value respectively using exponential desirability functions, by risk indicator data normalization,
0-100 points of score value is uniformly converted to after calculating；
6th step, collect the risk indicator of identical category, using weighted geometrie average calculation risk unit intensity score value, enterprise
Score value and country origin early warning score value are damaged, wherein, weighted geometrie average calculation formula is：
The number that G is index total score, N is index number, X is each risk indicator score value, f is the appearance of risk indicator score value；
7th step, score value and country origin early warning score value are damaged according to risk unit intensity score value, enterprise, put down using weighted geometric
Mean calculation risk index, wherein weight are the number that same risk score value occurs；
8th step, by Trade Remedy investigation venture entrepreneur seniority among brothers and sisters, enterprise's extent of damage seniority among brothers and sisters, country origin early warning seniority among brothers and sisters and risk
Exponential trend is monitored in real time respectively.
The beneficial effects of the invention are as follows：
Promptly and accurately differentiate trade hazard, assess risk unit intensity, enterprise's extent of damage, risk is investigated from Trade Remedy
Intensity, enterprise's extent of damage, country origin early warning and a variety of dimensions of risk index trend are monitored pre- to fair trade friction risk
It is alert, the science of decision-making is improved, strengthens the ability to ward off risks of development of foreign trade.
Brief description of the drawings
The present invention is further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings：
Fig. 1 is the configuration diagram of the present invention.
Embodiment
As shown in figure 1, the fair trade friction risk assessment early warning system of the present invention is differentiated by trade hazard, trade hazard
Assess and trade hazard monitoring and warning forms.
Trade hazard, which differentiates to capture by network, obtains the fair trade case dynamic that authoritative institution issues, and participle is parsed into
Risk unit, investigate commodity by Trade Remedy and promoter calculates commodity coefficient of frequency and country origin coefficient of frequency；
Trade hazard is assessed carries out the matching analysis, calculation risk unit intensity point by risk unit and export enterprise data
Value, enterprise's infringement score value and country origin early warning score value, finally calculate risk index；
Risk Monitoring early warning, ranked by Trade Remedy investigation venture entrepreneur seniority among brothers and sisters, enterprise's extent of damage seniority among brothers and sisters, country origin early warning
Monitored in real time respectively with risk index trend.
Risk unit calculates commodity coefficient of frequency and country origin coefficient of frequency by Trade Remedy investigation commodity and promoter；Risk
Unit includes six kinds of unique key, the risk term of validity, risk commodity, promoter, commodity coefficient of frequency and country origin coefficient of frequency elements；
Trade hazard is assessed, and wind is calculated according to impacted enterprise's number accounting, impacted commodity year export amount accounting and commodity coefficient of frequency
Dangerous unit intensity score value, enterprise's infringement score value is calculated according to enterprise's year investigation number, the impacted commodity year export amount accounting of enterprise,
Country origin early warning score value is calculated according to country origin year export amount accounting and country origin coefficient of frequency, according to risk unit intensity score value, enterprise
Damage score value and country origin early warning score value calculation risk index.
As shown in figure 1, the detailed implementing procedure of implementation method of fair trade friction risk assessment early warning system is：
The first step, is captured by network and obtains the fair trade case dynamic that authoritative institution issues, and participle parses and presses trade
Easily relief investigation commodity, promoter calculate commodity coefficient of frequency and country origin coefficient of frequency generation risk unit；
Second step, risk unit and export enterprise data are subjected to the matching analysis；
3rd step, formulate three kinds of classification risk indicators, including risk unit intensity index：Impacted enterprise's number accounting, by
Influence commodity year export amount accounting and commodity coefficient of frequency, enterprise's infringement index：Enterprise's commodity year investigation number, enterprise are impacted
Commodity year export amount accounting, country origin warning index：Country origin year export amount accounting and country origin coefficient of frequency；
4th step, not permissible value and firm appearance of each risk indicator in exponential desirability functions are formulated using expert's Evaluation Method
Perhaps it is worth, wherein, exponential desirability functions calculation formula is：D is effect score value, x is index
Actual value, xsFor not permissible value, xhFor firm feasible value, e be math constant be about 2.71828, ln be log；
5th step, calculate each risk indicator score value respectively using exponential desirability functions, by risk indicator data normalization,
0-100 points of score value is uniformly converted to after calculating；
6th step, collect the risk indicator of identical category, using weighted geometrie average calculation risk unit intensity score value, enterprise
Score value and country origin early warning score value are damaged, wherein, weighted geometrie average calculation formula is：
The number that G is index total score, N is index number, X is each risk indicator score value, f is the appearance of risk indicator score value；
7th step, score value and country origin early warning score value are damaged according to risk unit intensity score value, enterprise, put down using weighted geometric
Mean calculation risk index, wherein weight are the number that same risk score value occurs；
8th step, by Trade Remedy investigation venture entrepreneur seniority among brothers and sisters, enterprise's extent of damage seniority among brothers and sisters, country origin early warning seniority among brothers and sisters and risk
Exponential trend is monitored in real time respectively.
Claims (4)
- A kind of 1. foreign trade risk assessment early warning system, it is characterised in that：Described system includes trade hazard discriminating, trade Risk assessment and trade hazard monitoring and warning module；Described trade hazard identification module, captured by network and obtain the fair trade case dynamic that authoritative institution issues, point Word parses and investigates commodity and promoter's calculating commodity coefficient of frequency and country origin coefficient of frequency generation risk unit by Trade Remedy；Described trade hazard evaluation module, risk unit and export enterprise data are subjected to the matching analysis, calculation risk unit Intensity score value, enterprise's infringement score value and country origin early warning score value, finally calculate risk index；Described Risk Monitoring warning module, it is pre- by Trade Remedy investigation venture entrepreneur seniority among brothers and sisters, enterprise's extent of damage seniority among brothers and sisters, country origin Alert seniority among brothers and sisters and risk index trend are monitored in real time respectively.
- 2. system according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：Described risk unit include unique key, the risk term of validity, Six kinds of risk commodity, promoter, commodity coefficient of frequency and country origin coefficient of frequency elements.
- 3. system according to claim 1 or 2, it is characterised in that：In described trade hazard evaluation module, risk unit Intensity score value Consideration includes impacted enterprise's number accounting, impacted commodity year export amount accounting and commodity coefficient of frequency；Enterprise's infringement score value Consideration includes enterprise's commodity year investigation number, the impacted commodity year export amount accounting of enterprise；Country origin early warning score value Consideration includes country origin year export amount accounting and country origin coefficient of frequency.
- 4. a kind of implementation method of foreign trade risk assessment early warning system according to any one of claims 1 to 3, it is special Sign is：Described method comprises the following steps that：The first step, is captured by network and obtains the fair trade case dynamic that authoritative institution issues, and participle is parsed and rescued by trade Ji investigation commodity, promoter calculate commodity coefficient of frequency and country origin coefficient of frequency generation risk unit；Second step, risk unit and export enterprise data are subjected to the matching analysis；3rd step, formulate three kinds of classification risk indicators, including risk unit intensity index：It is impacted enterprise's number accounting, impacted Commodity year export amount accounting and commodity coefficient of frequency, enterprise's infringement index：Enterprise's commodity year investigation number, the impacted commodity of enterprise Year export amount accounting, country origin warning index：Country origin year export amount accounting and country origin coefficient of frequency；4th step, formulate not permissible value of each risk indicator in exponential desirability functions using expert's Evaluation Method and just allowed Value, wherein, exponential desirability functions calculation formula is：D is effect score value, x is index Actual value, xsFor not permissible value, xhFor firm feasible value, e be math constant be about 2.71828, ln be log；5th step, calculate each risk indicator score value respectively using exponential desirability functions, risk indicator data normalization calculates 0-100 points of score value is uniformly converted to afterwards；6th step, collect the risk indicator of identical category, damaged using weighted geometrie average calculation risk unit intensity score value, enterprise Score value and country origin early warning score value, wherein, weighted geometrie average calculation formula is： The number that G is index total score, N is index number, X is each risk indicator score value, f is the appearance of risk indicator score value；7th step, score value and country origin early warning score value are damaged according to risk unit intensity score value, enterprise, using weighted geometrie average Calculation risk index, wherein weight are the number that same risk score value occurs；8th step, by Trade Remedy investigation venture entrepreneur seniority among brothers and sisters, enterprise's extent of damage seniority among brothers and sisters, country origin early warning seniority among brothers and sisters and risk index Trend is monitored in real time respectively.
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| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
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| CN201711159360.6A CN107808257A (en) | 2017-11-20 | 2017-11-20 | A kind of foreign trade risk assessment early warning system and its implementation |
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| CN201711159360.6A CN107808257A (en) | 2017-11-20 | 2017-11-20 | A kind of foreign trade risk assessment early warning system and its implementation |
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| CN107808257A true CN107808257A (en) | 2018-03-16 |
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| CN201711159360.6A Withdrawn CN107808257A (en) | 2017-11-20 | 2017-11-20 | A kind of foreign trade risk assessment early warning system and its implementation |
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Cited By (6)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN109190942A (en) * | 2018-08-20 | 2019-01-11 | 浙江外国语学院 | International friend's city commerce and trade risk automatic early-warning system |
| CN111667146A (en) * | 2020-04-29 | 2020-09-15 | 桂林电子科技大学 | External trade risk assessment platform |
| CN112381587A (en) * | 2020-12-01 | 2021-02-19 | 大连交通大学 | Foreign trade industry ecological gathering area integrated system and business operation mode |
| CN112633660A (en) * | 2020-12-17 | 2021-04-09 | 山大地纬软件股份有限公司 | Multi-angle unemployment risk early warning device and method |
| CN114723344A (en) * | 2022-06-07 | 2022-07-08 | 浙江省标准化研究院(金砖国家标准化(浙江)研究中心 浙江省物品编码中心) | Foreign technical trade barrier early warning method and system for export products |
| CN116777621A (en) * | 2023-06-25 | 2023-09-19 | 陕西西煤云商信息科技有限公司 | Trade business risk prevention and control method and prevention and control system thereof |
-
2017
- 2017-11-20 CN CN201711159360.6A patent/CN107808257A/en not_active Withdrawn
Cited By (7)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN109190942A (en) * | 2018-08-20 | 2019-01-11 | 浙江外国语学院 | International friend's city commerce and trade risk automatic early-warning system |
| CN111667146A (en) * | 2020-04-29 | 2020-09-15 | 桂林电子科技大学 | External trade risk assessment platform |
| CN112381587A (en) * | 2020-12-01 | 2021-02-19 | 大连交通大学 | Foreign trade industry ecological gathering area integrated system and business operation mode |
| CN112633660A (en) * | 2020-12-17 | 2021-04-09 | 山大地纬软件股份有限公司 | Multi-angle unemployment risk early warning device and method |
| CN114723344A (en) * | 2022-06-07 | 2022-07-08 | 浙江省标准化研究院(金砖国家标准化(浙江)研究中心 浙江省物品编码中心) | Foreign technical trade barrier early warning method and system for export products |
| CN116777621A (en) * | 2023-06-25 | 2023-09-19 | 陕西西煤云商信息科技有限公司 | Trade business risk prevention and control method and prevention and control system thereof |
| CN116777621B (en) * | 2023-06-25 | 2024-02-06 | 陕西西煤云商信息科技有限公司 | Trade business risk prevention and control method and prevention and control system thereof |
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