CN107730145B - Voltage sag economic loss assessment method - Google Patents

Voltage sag economic loss assessment method Download PDF

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CN107730145B
CN107730145B CN201711086244.6A CN201711086244A CN107730145B CN 107730145 B CN107730145 B CN 107730145B CN 201711086244 A CN201711086244 A CN 201711086244A CN 107730145 B CN107730145 B CN 107730145B
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CN107730145A (en
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肖先勇
谭秀美
汪颖
李长松
陈韵竹
郑子萱
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Sichuan University
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Abstract

The invention discloses a voltage sag economic loss assessment method, which comprises the following steps: obtaining a voltage sag loss event classification result based on the electrical characteristics, physical attributes and sensing loss of the sensitive equipment, and obtaining a loss quantification principle based on a VTC curve and a PIT curve of the sensitive equipment; respectively establishing probability models of different types of loss events based on voltage sag loss event classification results and a loss quantification principle; calculating the voltage sag economic loss in the industrial process on the basis of obtaining the probabilities of different types of loss events based on a probability model; and establishing a general voltage sag economic loss evaluation model in the industrial process, and providing decision basis for voltage sag investment and management of users.

Description

Voltage sag economic loss assessment method
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of power quality economic assessment of a power system, in particular to a voltage sag economic loss assessment method based on electrical characteristics, physical attributes and sensing loss.
Background
The voltage sag caused by lightning strike has received high attention from the industry, academia and government, and has caused great influence and loss to users in the industries such as semiconductors, electronics, pharmacy, textile and petrochemical industry. High and new technology park users suffer voltage sags about 10-30 times per year, resulting in losses of about 2 to 10 or more than 20 times. For this reason, both the grid companies and the users take active measures, but the voltage sag loss is uncertain and unpredictable, and both grid-side and user-side measures involve huge investments, sometimes even exceeding other major equipment investments. Therefore, the method for deeply researching the voltage sag economic loss and the user risk assessment has important theoretical value and practical significance.
The research on the voltage sag loss evaluation method is still in an experience accumulation stage at present, and the direct method and the indirect method are mainly used. Direct methods include survey statistics and analytics; indirect methods include Willingness To Pay (WTP) and Willingness To Accept (WTA). The survey statistical method is used for carrying out statistics on actual loss, and therefore, China also sets a relevant standard GB/Z32880.1-2016 electric energy quality economy assessment part 1: the economic assessment method for power users has reliable results, but consumes time and labor, and has low popularization; the analytical method comprises a probability method, a fuzzy method and the like, has strong popularization, and has the core of evaluating the voltage sag immunity in the process, but the methods are based on the electrical characteristics of equipment, carry out uncertain modeling on the voltage endurance capacity, do not consider the physical properties and the user perception, and have poor practicability. The indirect method represented by WTP and WTA considers user perception, but has insufficient consideration on electrical and physical properties, strong subjectivity and sample dependency, and is easy to overestimate or underestimate.
The process Parameter Immunity Time (PIT) concept proposed by CIGRE/circuit JWG C4.110 considers that process or device PIT time coincides with voltage sag duration, and measures the process voltage sag immunity with PIT. The method provides that the physical attribute of the voltage sag loss event is described by using the process parameter immune time, a certain rationality is realized logically, a new thought is provided for voltage sag loss evaluation, but the electrical characteristic is different from the physical attribute, the electrical characteristic and the physical attribute are not in a complete linear relationship, and the user perception loss and a quantification method thereof need to be further considered.
In summary, in the process of implementing the technical solution of the present invention, the inventors of the present application find that the above-mentioned technology has at least the following technical problems:
in the prior art, the existing voltage sag loss evaluation method has the following problems that 1) the electrical states of equipment except for normal and fault are difficult to determine; 2) in practice, what the user can directly perceive is the change of physical parameters (such as temperature, rotating speed, wind speed and the like) in the production process, but not the electrical state of the equipment in the production process; 3) neglecting the technical problem of loss which does not cause interruption of the industrial process.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a voltage sag economic loss evaluation method, which solves the technical problems that the modeling of the existing voltage sag loss evaluation method only considers the electrical state of equipment, does not consider process physical parameters, ignores the process uninterrupted loss which can be perceived by a user and the like, and realizes the technical effect of improving the accuracy of sag loss evaluation.
In order to achieve the above object, the present application provides a voltage sag economic loss assessment method, including:
step 1: obtaining a voltage sag loss event classification result based on the electrical characteristics, physical attributes and sensing loss of the sensitive equipment, and obtaining a loss quantification principle based on a VTC curve and a PIT curve of the sensitive equipment;
and step 3: respectively establishing probability models of different types of loss events based on voltage sag loss event classification results and a loss quantification principle;
and step 3: and calculating the voltage sag economic loss in the industrial process on the basis of obtaining the probabilities of different types of loss events based on the probability model.
In fact, the loss of voltage sag for a user is simultaneously related to the severity of the sag, the electrical characteristics of the device, the physical properties and the user perception, etc., and at a given voltage sag level, the loss of voltage sag experienced by the user is evaluated taking into account the electrical characteristics, physical properties and user perception of the sensitive device.
The loss event is analyzed and evaluated from the aspects of electrical characteristics, physical attributes, user perception loss and the like; a general depicting method for researching mapping relation between electrical characteristics and physical attributes of voltage sag response events divides a user voltage sag loss event into two sub-events of process interruption and user perception loss, and provides a general model for estimating economic loss of voltage sag of an industrial process based on investigation statistics and user perception estimation interruption loss and perception loss respectively.
Further, the step 1 specifically includes:
1a, obtaining a voltage sag loss event classification result based on electrical characteristics, physical attributes and perceptual loss;
and 1b, obtaining a loss quantization principle based on VTC and PIT.
Further, in step 1a, from three angles of electrical characteristics of sensitive equipment, physical parameter change and user perception loss after the industrial process suffers from voltage sag, considering that the voltage sag causes process interruption loss and equipment failure, but after the physical parameters deviate to a certain degree in the process, the user will also perceive the loss. The voltage sag loss event is divided into a process interruption loss event and a user perception loss event, and a foundation is laid for the estimation of sag loss.
Further, in step 1b, considering that the VTC curve and the PIT curve of the sag sensitive device respectively reflect electrical characteristics and physical properties, a voltage sag loss quantification principle is determined based on a general characterization method of the mapping relationship of the VTC curve and the PIT curve.
The characterization method of the mapping relation between the VTC curve and the PIT curve based on the sensitive equipment comprises the following steps:
when the voltage is temporarily dropped in the safe area of VTC, the physical parameters maintain the normal value PPNNo loss event occurred;
when the voltage sag is in a VTC uncertain region, different sag amplitudes correspond to different PIT curves, PIT time corresponding to the same acceptable physical parameter level is different, and different user perception loss events correspond to different physical parameter deviation degrees;
when the voltage sag is in a VTC fault area, the physical parameter crosses the limit value PPlimitA process interruption loss event occurs.
Further, the step 2 specifically includes:
2a, process interruption loss event probability model
2b, equivalent probability model of loss event to process interruption loss event sensed by user
Further, in step 2a, the counted annual process interruption times are divided by the monitored annual sag times of the sensitive device access point, and the result is the probability of the process interruption loss event.
Further, in step 2b, firstly, according to the physical parameters and voltage sag data obtained by monitoring, a PIT curve is drawn by adopting a piecewise linear interpolation method, and the degree s of deviation of the physical parameters from the rated value is calculatedV(T); then assume a single dip in user perceived loss L(s)V(T)) at sV(T) there is a second derivative at 0, and L(s)V(T)) at sVPerforming Taylor expansion at the position where the T is 0, ignoring a high-order term, and dividing the high-order term by the single process interruption loss, wherein the ratio is used as an equivalent factor theta of the single user perception loss event to the process interruption loss event; finally based on sV(T) and θ, establishing an equivalent probability of a user-perceived loss event to a process interruption loss event in conjunction with a probability density function of the voltage sag eigenvalues.
Further, in the step 3, based on the probability values of the different types of loss events calculated in the step 2, the trip interruption loss and the user perception loss are respectively calculated, and the results of the trip interruption loss and the user perception loss are accumulated to obtain the voltage sag economic loss in the industrial process.
The method comprises the steps that voltage sag loss events are divided into process interruption loss events and user perception loss events based on the characteristics of electrical characteristics and physical attributes of sensitive equipment during voltage sag and perception differentiation of different loss events by users, and the process interruption loss and the user perception loss are quantized respectively; when the user perception loss is quantified, the method comprehensively utilizes the advantages of the VTC curve and the PIT curve, the physical parameter deviation degree is added for the first time to establish the probability model of economic loss evaluation, loss is not interrupted in the quantification process, and the method has the characteristics of high operability and high applicability for the industrial process voltage sag economic loss evaluation.
One or more technical solutions provided by the present application have at least the following technical effects or advantages:
the invention provides a voltage sag economic loss evaluation method based on electrical characteristics-physical properties-perceptual loss. Voltage sag losses are divided into in-process outage losses and user-perceived losses based on the different degrees to which the industrial process is affected by the sag. The method comprises the steps of comprehensively utilizing a Voltage Tolerance Curve (VTC) for describing electrical characteristics of equipment and a Parameter Immunity Time (PIT) curve of physical attributes to evaluate user perception loss, accumulating industrial process interruption loss obtained based on survey statistics on the basis, establishing a general industrial process voltage sag economic loss evaluation model, and providing decision basis for voltage sag investment and management of users.
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The accompanying drawings, which are included to provide a further understanding of the embodiments of the invention and are incorporated in and constitute a part of this application, illustrate embodiments of the invention and together with the description serve to explain the principles of the invention;
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of a voltage sag loss event in a production process;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of electrical characteristics-physical parameters-perceptual loss;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of a method for depicting a mapping relationship between electrical characteristics and physical attributes;
FIG. 4 is a flow chart of voltage sag economic loss estimation;
FIG. 5 is a block diagram of a high cleanliness factory HVAC system;
FIG. 6 is a schematic diagram of voltage sag at the power supply point of a blower in 2004-2006;
FIG. 7 is a schematic diagram of PIT curves at different voltage sag amplitudes;
FIG. 8 is a high cleanliness plant HVAC system voltage sag annual economic loss schematic.
Detailed Description
The invention provides a voltage sag economic loss evaluation method, which solves the technical problems that the modeling of the existing voltage sag loss evaluation method only considers the electrical state of equipment, does not consider process physical parameters, ignores the process uninterrupted loss which can be perceived by a user and the like, and realizes the technical effect of improving the accuracy of sag loss evaluation.
In order that the above objects, features and advantages of the present invention can be more clearly understood, a more particular description of the invention will be rendered by reference to the appended drawings. It should be noted that the embodiments and features of the embodiments of the present application may be combined with each other without conflicting with each other.
In the following description, numerous specific details are set forth in order to provide a thorough understanding of the present invention, however, the present invention may be practiced in other ways than those specifically described and thus the scope of the present invention is not limited by the specific embodiments disclosed below.
The invention relates to a voltage sag economic loss evaluation method based on electrical characteristics-physical attributes-perceptual loss, which mainly comprises the following steps:
1) obtaining a voltage sag loss event classification result based on electrical characteristics-physical attributes-perceptual loss, and obtaining a loss quantification principle based on VTC and PIT
a. Obtaining a voltage sag loss event classification result based on the electrical characteristics-physical attributes-perceptual loss;
when the voltage sag causes equipment failure, the structure or function of the production process is lost, and the process is interrupted, so that the process interruption loss similar to the loss caused by unplanned power failure is caused; when the voltage sag does not cause equipment failure, the physical parameters in the process may be affected to different degrees, and users will suffer different degrees of loss according to the affected degree of the physical parameters. Loss events without equipment failure and process interruption are defined herein as user-perceived loss events. Thus, voltage sag loss events include process interruption loss events and user perceived loss events, such as FIG. 1.
To more accurately estimate the loss of the user voltage sag, the voltage sag loss event can be divided into: electrical characteristics, physical properties and loss of perception of the device, as shown in fig. 2. When voltage sag occurs, on a voltage amplitude (V) -duration (T) plane, a device Voltage Tolerance Curve (VTC) can be used to determine a device fault state causing significant loss, whereas a Parametric Immunity Time (PIT) curve recommended by CIGRE C4.110 is used to more easily identify user perception loss when the device electrical state is difficult to determine. Therefore, by combining VTC and PIT curves and researching a general depicting method of a VTC to PIT mapping rule in different production processes, the perception loss of a user is evaluated, and the method is more reasonable.
b. The loss quantization principle is derived based on VTC and PIT.
The common sensitive equipment in the production process comprises: contactors (ACC), Programmable Logic Controllers (PLC), variable speed drives (ASD), and the like. The ASD is taken as an example in this section, and the other sections are similar. Generally, ASDs are used to drive and control motors with different loads in a production process. The process engineer knows the working state of the ASD driving system by monitoring physical parameters such as rotating speed, torque, pressure and pressure in real time.
The VTC curve and PIT curve of the ASD drive system reflect electrical and physical properties, respectively. When the load or the process is different, the mapping relation between the load and the process is different, and particularly when the voltage sag is in a VTC uncertainty area, the electrical state is difficult to judge, and the working state of an ASD driving system and the economic loss suffered by a production process need to be reflected by physical parameters. Fig. 3 shows a general method for describing a mapping relationship between electrical characteristics and physical attributes of a sensitive device, where fig. 3 includes:
when the voltage is temporarily dropped in the safe area of VTC, the physical parameters maintain the normal value PPNNo loss event occurred;
when the voltage sag is in the uncertain region of the VTC, different sag amplitudes correspond to different PIT curves, and PIT times corresponding to the same acceptable physical parameter level are different, namely V0→V1→V2→V3The following parameters were in order of the immunization time to PIT0→PIT1→PIT2→PIT3. Different degrees of deviation of the physical parameters correspond to different user perception loss events;
when the voltage sag is in a VTC fault area, the physical parameter crosses the limit value PPlimitA process interruption loss event occurs.
Therefore, sag loss can be evaluated from the PIT curve.
2) Based on voltage sag loss event classification results and loss quantification principles, probability models of different types of loss events are respectively established
a. Process interruption loss event probability model
And dividing the counted annual process interruption times by the monitored annual sag times of the sensitive equipment access point, wherein the result is the probability of the process interruption loss event.
Figure BDA0001460156380000051
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0001460156380000052
for the loss of event probability of process interruption, NIntFor annual process interruption times, NsagThe number of annual dip times.
b. Equivalent probability model of user-perceived loss event to process interruption loss event
And drawing a PIT curve according to the physical parameter PP and the voltage sag data obtained by monitoring. When the data is insufficient, a PIT curve can be approximated by adopting a piecewise linear interpolation method. Given the sag amplitude V, an interpolation node T is set as T0<T1<…<Tk<…<TaThe corresponding physical parameters are: PP (polypropylene)0，PP1，…，PPk，…，PPaThe following relationship is satisfied:
Figure BDA0001460156380000053
it is difficult to align [0, V ] in practicemax]All PITs in the sag interval are monitored as delta by equation (4)VDivide the sag amplitude into b intervals, assuming interval [ V ] 0.1 step sizej-1，Vj]The upper PIT is almost unchanged by the amplitude Vj-1Physical parameter immune time ofVj-1The PIT value in this interval is set.
Figure BDA0001460156380000061
Interval [ Tk，Tk+1]Using linear interpolation function[18]Determining PPk(T) value:
Figure BDA0001460156380000062
obtaining a PIT curve piecewise function P with the sag amplitude value V according to the linear interpolation function of each intervalV(T) obtaining the deviation degree s of the physical parameter with T under the temporary reduction amplitudeV(T)：
Figure BDA0001460156380000063
In actual production, the ideal physical parameter deviation degree s 00, actual degree of deviation sV(T)，|sV(T)-s0The larger the | the greater the loss. Suppose a single dip in the user perception loss L(s)V(T)) in s ═ s0There is a second derivative whose taylor expansion is:
Figure BDA0001460156380000064
when s isV(T)＝s0When L(s)V(T)) takes a minimum value of 0, L(s)0)＝L'(s0) 0, while L (1) is CIntIgnoring higher order terms of more than second order:
Figure BDA0001460156380000065
defining the equivalence factor θ of a single user perceived loss event to a process interruption loss event:
Figure BDA0001460156380000066
the user perceives a loss event to occur when the voltage sag causes the physical parameter to deviate by more than λ (0< λ < 1). The threshold lambda is determined by the process engineer based on the particular manufacturing process and represents the degree of deviation of the physical parameter that the manufacturing process begins to suffer.
When s isVWhen (T) ═ λ, the shortest sag duration T for which a loss of user perception event occurs given a sag amplitude V can be determined from equation (5)V. The equivalent probability of a user-perceived loss event to a process interruption loss event at the voltage sag amplitude V
Figure BDA0001460156380000067
Comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0001460156380000068
in the formula, TmaxAnd f (T) is a probability density function of the voltage sag duration, and can be determined by adopting a maximum entropy method.
Considering the randomness of the voltage sag amplitude, the equivalent probability of the user-perceived loss event to the process interruption loss event, which depends on the sag amplitude and duration, is:
Figure BDA0001460156380000071
where f (V) is the probability density function of the voltage sag amplitude, and can be determined by the maximum entropy method.
3) Calculating the economic loss of voltage sag in the industrial process on the basis of obtaining the probability of different types of loss events
Substituting different types of loss event probabilities into an equation (11), accumulating process interruption loss and user perception loss to obtain a voltage sag economic loss evaluation general model in the industrial process:
Figure BDA0001460156380000072
in the formula, FInt、FNonRespectively representing the interruption loss and the user perception loss in the process; n is a radical ofsagNumber of annual dip times, CIntAverage loss per interruption;
Figure BDA0001460156380000073
loss of event probability for process interruption;
Figure BDA0001460156380000074
the user is aware of the equivalent probability of a loss event versus a process interruption loss event.
In the formula (11), NsagCan be obtained according to voltage sag monitoring data, CIntIs obtained on the basis of process interruption event statistics,
Figure BDA0001460156380000075
and
Figure BDA0001460156380000076
calculated according to step 2).
The voltage sag loss event is divided into a process interruption loss event and a user perception loss event, and meanwhile, the electrical state of equipment, the process physical attribute and the user perception loss are considered, so that an industrial process voltage sag loss evaluation model is established. By utilizing the change rule of the physical parameters in the production process, the loss which can be perceived by a user can be described without interrupting the process, and the established model is more practical. The method not only can more accurately evaluate the total loss of the user, but also can more thinly obtain the interruption loss in the process and the user perception loss without interruption in the process, and provide richer information for the user to perform investment and treatment activities. The specific implementation flow chart is shown in figure 4.
The economic loss of voltage sag suffered in 2004-.
The 4 fans in the HVAC system were driven by ASD to maintain the static pressure difference between the sterile room and the outdoor atmosphere as shown in fig. 5, with the fans powered by 10kV/0.4kV Dyn11 transformers. The voltage sag in 2006 of 2004-: [15ms,175ms ], [0.59p.u.,0.71p.u. ].
The pressure differential gauge of the HVAC system monitors the physical parameter PP (sterile room versus outdoor static pressure). According to the regulation of national standard GB50591-2010 clean room construction and acceptance standard: the static pressure difference between the sterile room and the outdoor atmosphere is more than 10Pa, PPlimit10Pa, and PP when the blower is in normal operation N25 Pa. According to the physical parameter PP and the voltage sag data obtained by monitoring, a corresponding PIT curve is obtained by applying an interpolation method when different sag amplitudes V are obtained, as shown in FIG. 7.
When the static pressure difference deviation degree caused by voltage sag is more than 35% in the operation process of the high-cleanliness factory HVAC system, users suffer from economic losses of different degrees, so that lambda is 0.35. The single interruption loss C of the process is knownInt25 ten thousand yuan. The results of annual economic losses of voltage sag in 2006 evaluated by the method herein are shown in fig. 8. The result shows that the actual loss is obviously greater than the process interruption loss, and the result after the interruption loss and the user perception loss are considered is more practical, which proves that when the user takes countermeasures, the problem of the process interruption is considered, and the voltage sag countermeasures which cause the user perception loss without the interruption of the process are considered.
In summary, the voltage sag economic loss evaluation model established based on the electrical characteristics, the physical attributes and the sensing loss divides the voltage sag loss into the interruption loss in the process and the user sensing loss, and respectively quantizes the loss degree of the interruption and uninterrupted loss events of the industrial process by comprehensively utilizing the advantages of a Voltage Tolerance Curve (VTC) and a Parameter Immunity Time (PIT) curve of the physical attributes, which characterize the electrical characteristics of the equipment. The method can effectively overcome the over-estimation or under-estimation problem, can obtain the process interruption loss and the user perception loss at the same time, and is more suitable for industrial application.
While preferred embodiments of the present invention have been described, additional variations and modifications in those embodiments may occur to those skilled in the art once they learn of the basic inventive concepts. Therefore, it is intended that the appended claims be interpreted as including preferred embodiments and all such alterations and modifications as fall within the scope of the invention.
It will be apparent to those skilled in the art that various changes and modifications may be made in the present invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention. Thus, if such modifications and variations of the present invention fall within the scope of the claims of the present invention and their equivalents, the present invention is also intended to include such modifications and variations.

Claims (8)

1. A method for assessing economic loss due to voltage sag, the method comprising:
when a voltage sag loss event occurs;
obtaining a voltage sag loss event classification result based on the electrical characteristics, physical attributes and sensing loss of the sensitive equipment, and obtaining a loss quantification principle based on a VTC curve and a PIT curve of the sensitive equipment;
respectively establishing probability models of different types of loss events based on voltage sag loss event classification results and a loss quantification principle;
calculating the voltage sag economic loss in the industrial process on the basis of obtaining the probabilities of different types of loss events based on a probability model;
a voltage sag loss quantification principle is determined based on a characterization method of a VTC curve and PIT curve mapping relation of sensitive equipment;
the characterization method of the mapping relation between the VTC curve and the PIT curve based on the sensitive equipment comprises the following steps:
when the voltage is temporarily dropped in the safe area of VTC, the physical parameters maintain the normal value PPNNo loss event occurred;
when the voltage sag is in a VTC uncertain region, different sag amplitudes correspond to different PIT curves, PIT time corresponding to the same acceptable physical parameter level is different, and different user perception loss events correspond to different physical parameter deviation degrees;
when the voltage sag is in a VTC fault area, the physical parameter crosses the limit value PPlimitA process interruption loss event occurs.
2. The voltage sag economic loss assessment method according to claim 1, wherein the voltage sag loss event classification comprises: process interruption loss events and user perception loss events.
3. The voltage sag economic loss evaluation method according to claim 2, wherein after the voltage sag, if the sensitive equipment fails and the production process is interrupted, the voltage sag economic loss evaluation method is a process interruption loss event; if the sensitive equipment is not failed and the production process is not interrupted, and the physical parameters deviate, the loss event is sensed by the user.
4. The voltage sag economic loss evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein the voltage sag loss event is divided into: the electrical characteristics, physical properties and perceptual loss of the device.
5. The voltage sag economic loss assessment method according to claim 2, wherein the probabilistic model of loss events comprises: a process disruption loss event probability model and an equivalent probability model of a user perceived loss event to a process disruption loss event.
6. The method according to claim 5, wherein the process outage event probability is determined as a result of dividing the counted annual process outage times by the monitored annual outage times of the access points of the sensitive devices.
7. The voltage sag economic loss evaluation method according to claim 5, wherein a PIT curve is drawn by a piecewise linear interpolation method according to the monitored physical parameter and the voltage sag data, and the degree s of deviation of the physical parameter from a rated value is calculatedV(T); then assume a single dip in user perceived loss L(s)V(T)) at sV(T) there is a second derivative at 0, and L(s)V(T)) at sVPerforming Taylor expansion at the position where the T is 0, ignoring a high-order term, and dividing the high-order term by the single process interruption loss, wherein the ratio is used as an equivalent factor theta of the single user perception loss event to the process interruption loss event; finally based on sV(T) and θ, establishing an equivalent probability of a user-perceived loss event to a process interruption loss event in conjunction with a probability density function of the voltage sag eigenvalues.
8. The voltage sag economic loss evaluation method according to claim 2, wherein the process interruption loss and the user perception loss are respectively calculated based on the calculated probability values of different types of loss events, and the industrial process voltage sag economic loss is obtained by accumulating the results of the process interruption loss and the user perception loss.
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