CN107704945A - Rice migratory pest moves into peak method for early warning - Google Patents
Rice migratory pest moves into peak method for early warning Download PDFInfo
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- CN107704945A CN107704945A CN201710707869.3A CN201710707869A CN107704945A CN 107704945 A CN107704945 A CN 107704945A CN 201710707869 A CN201710707869 A CN 201710707869A CN 107704945 A CN107704945 A CN 107704945A
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- 241000607479 Yersinia pestis Species 0.000 title claims abstract description 33
- 235000007164 Oryza sativa Nutrition 0.000 title claims abstract description 30
- 235000009566 rice Nutrition 0.000 title claims abstract description 30
- 230000001617 migratory effect Effects 0.000 title claims abstract description 26
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 19
- 240000007594 Oryza sativa Species 0.000 title 1
- 241000209094 Oryza Species 0.000 claims abstract description 29
- 241000238631 Hexapoda Species 0.000 claims abstract description 13
- 238000012544 monitoring process Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 8
- 230000008878 coupling Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 3
- 238000010168 coupling process Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 3
- 238000005859 coupling reaction Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 3
- 241000008892 Cnaphalocrocis patnalis Species 0.000 claims description 10
- 241001498622 Cixius wagneri Species 0.000 claims description 9
- 238000004088 simulation Methods 0.000 claims description 9
- 230000003542 behavioural effect Effects 0.000 claims description 7
- 241000176086 Sogatella furcifera Species 0.000 claims description 4
- 238000013508 migration Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 230000005012 migration Effects 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000009792 diffusion process Methods 0.000 claims description 2
- 230000037361 pathway Effects 0.000 claims description 2
- 230000008569 process Effects 0.000 claims description 2
- 230000007613 environmental effect Effects 0.000 claims 1
- 238000004458 analytical method Methods 0.000 abstract description 4
- 230000002265 prevention Effects 0.000 abstract description 3
- 201000010099 disease Diseases 0.000 description 4
- 208000037265 diseases, disorders, signs and symptoms Diseases 0.000 description 4
- 230000000694 effects Effects 0.000 description 2
- 241001556089 Nilaparvata lugens Species 0.000 description 1
- 230000003139 buffering effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 description 1
- 239000002131 composite material Substances 0.000 description 1
- 230000007547 defect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000011161 development Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000010586 diagram Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000005516 engineering process Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000011156 evaluation Methods 0.000 description 1
- 239000004744 fabric Substances 0.000 description 1
- 238000013507 mapping Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000005498 polishing Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000012545 processing Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000003908 quality control method Methods 0.000 description 1
- 210000004894 snout Anatomy 0.000 description 1
- 230000000007 visual effect Effects 0.000 description 1
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- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/04—Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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- G06Q10/0635—Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q50/00—Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of rice migratory pest to move into peak method for early warning, it is characterised in that：The rice migratory pest moves into the track of migrating that peak method for early warning calculates rice migratory pest by the way that WRF patterns and HYSPLIT patterns or FlexPart Mode Couplings are driven.Using the present invention to insect pest situation analysis result rate of accuracy reached more than 85%, dynamic monitoring for China's rice migratory pest and move into that peak is forecast, important contribution has been made in early warning and effective prevention and control in real time.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to pestforecasting and prevention and control field, and in particular to the early warning at peak is moved into rice migratory pest.
Background technology
With forecast of disease and pest, meteorological numerical simulation, GIS-Geographic Information System, internet+, science and the skill such as enviromental geography
The fast development of art so that agricultural pest monitoring, early warning, forecast and impact evaluation may be constructed a complete effective practicality
Technical system, and can in China's agricultural forecast of disease and pest, agrometeorological hazard monitoring and warning, Effect of Natural Disaster assess, great have
Effect well is played in the contingency management of evil biotic intrusion.And at present there has been no one kind can effectively carry out Migrating Insects dynamic
Monitoring and the method for early warning.
The content of the invention
The invention aims to solve defect present in prior art, there is provided one kind can effectively carry out elder brother of migrating
Worm dynamic monitoring, the method for early warning.
In order to achieve the above object, the invention provides a kind of rice migratory pest to move into peak method for early warning, its feature
It is：The rice migratory pest moves into peak method for early warning by by WRF patterns and HYSPLIT patterns or FlexPart patterns
Coupling driving calculates the track of migrating of rice migratory pest.
Further, method for early warning of the present invention is moved using WRF patterns to the rice migratory pest of required monitoring and early warning
The atmospheric background for entering process carries out the numerical simulation of system, is migrated behavioral ecology parameter according to the correlation of the insect, with reference to
HYSPLIT patterns or FlexPart patterns calculate the track of migrating of the insect, determine its worm sources area of moving out, aerial migration pathway and
Diffusion profile of landing area, according to migrate track and the progress early warning of Jiang Chong areas density profile of determination.
Wherein, correlation migrate behavioral ecology parameter include take off insects sources, takeoff condition, the departure time, release flight
Height layer, flight after area's atmospheric environment restrictive condition, migrate and last, the landing time, descent altitude, drop conditions, can land
Area is distributed.
Can be monitored includes rice leaf roller, brown paddy plant hopper, white backed planthopper with the rice migratory pest of early warning.
The present invention has advantages below compared with prior art：The present invention is different using meteorological Numerical Prediction Models WRF outputs
The atmospheric background field in period（Including historical background field, real-time ambient field, forecast ambient field）, drive online version HYSPLIT and
Two kinds of trajectory calculation platforms of FLEXPART, and combine rice migratory pest relevant biological parameter to brown paddy plant hopper, white backed planthopper,
Insects sources, track of migrating, the distribution of Jiang Chong areas and its corresponding probability distribution of the rice migratory pest such as rice leaf roller are carried out
It is accurate to calculate and analyze, visual display is made to its four-dimensional dynamic, and provide the related rail of online and offline two kinds of forms
The corresponding chart output of mark parameter, insect pest situation analysis result, rate of accuracy reached more than 85%, is China's rice migratory pest
Dynamic monitoring and move into peak forecast in real time, important contribution has been made in early warning and effective prevention and control.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the flow chart that moving into property of rice insect of the present invention moves into peak method for early warning；
Fig. 2 distinguishes Butut for the present invention using FlexPart modelings N.Lugens's migration；
Fig. 3 is migrated track distribution map for the present invention using HYSPLIT modeling rice leaf roller；
Fig. 4 is migrated trajectory height variation diagram for the present invention using HYSPLIT modeling rice leaf roller.
Embodiment
The present invention is described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
Comprise the following steps as shown in figure 1, rice migratory pest of the present invention moves into peak method for early warning：
（One）Data input and processing：Collect the history and real-time disease pest observation data, this season rice of national forecast of disease and pest station net
Plantation, fundamental geological environment, agricultural environment and meteorological background information（Including NCEP meteorologies analysis of data again）, examined and picked by mistake
The quality control of mistake, interpolation polishing, space-time consistency and objective law, is converted into defined formatted file（Including lattice point point
Cloth data）, to meet the needs of WRF patterns, FLEXPART and HYSPLIT trajectory models are run and calculated.
（Two）Background mode is run：Meteorological analysis of data again is imported into WRF patterns, operation export meteorological backgrounds simulation field,
Diagnose field, forecast fieldses；And the initial input field using these as operation FlexPart patterns and HYSPLIT patterns.
（Three）Function selects：Rice migratory pest to be studied is determined, such as in " planthopper migrate track " and " the vertical volume of rice
Leaf snout moth's larva migrates track " optional one in two options.Then as needed in " HYSPLIT " and " FLEXPART " two kinds of track moulds
Optional one in formula, configured into corresponding mode parameter., can be according to calculating after wherein entering " planthopper migrate track " option
It is a kind of in Object Selection " brown paddy plant hopper " or " white backed planthopper ".
（Four）Parameter configuration
For FLEXPART and HYSPLIT both of which, the respectively corresponding life for moving into peak prediction or simulation in real time of selection
State behavioral parameters.
（Five）Planthopper moves into peak simulation or prediction
Mould is carried out to the peak of moving into of planthopper difference behavioral ecology restrictive condition by FLEXPART or HYSPLIT patterns
Intend or prediction, and track and landing density distribution core will be migrated on map.
（Six）Rice leaf roller moves into peak simulation or prediction
Rice leaf roller difference behavioral ecology restrictive condition is moved into by FLEXPART patterns or HYSPLIT patterns
Peak simulated or predicted, and will migrate track and landing density distribution core on map.It considers rice leaf roller
Special habit of migrating again.
（Seven）Composite mapping
It will simulate or prediction result is included on DEM electronic maps, and user is visually observed that current migratory pest
Track of migrating.And provide the support to functions such as map layer selection, Map roaming, map scalings.Support simultaneously for mouse
Demarcate the longitude and latitude real-time display of position.
（Eight）Data output
It will predict or the specific data of simulation be stored in .txt files, be available for user further to analyze use.
The result that rice migratory pest simulation is carried out using the present invention is as follows：
As shown in Fig. 2 migrated for a brown paddy plant hopper from south to north great occurred at the beginning of 7 months 2009 in China Guangdong rice region
Journey, the time started of taking off is evening 19:00 or so, the drop worm time is morning next day 05:00 or so, insects sources are in Guangzhou, Dongguan
On the south one line, Jiang Chong areas are in the Qujiang River, the band of Shaoguan one, buffering area area encompassed（Center slits region part）It is generation of migrating
Area, based on internal dark-shaded area Jiang Chong areas.
As shown in figure 3, it is 23 days 06 July in 2007：00,22 days 06：00 and 21 days 06：00 Anhui Taihu Lake, Zhejiang
Jiang Xiangshan, Jiangsu Zhangjiagang and Jiangsu Danyang station each night 12h backsteppings track of rice leaf roller line.
As shown in figure 4, it is 23 days 06 July in 2007:00（a）, 22 days 06:00（b）With 21 days 06:00（c）Too
Lake, Xiangshan, Zhangjiagang and each h backstepping trajectory height curves of night 12 of Danyang station rice leaf roller.
Claims (4)
1. a kind of rice migratory pest moves into peak method for early warning, it is characterised in that：It is pre- that the rice migratory pest moves into peak
Alarm method by WRF patterns and HYSPLIT patterns or the driving of FlexPart Mode Couplings by calculating moving for rice migratory pest
Fly track.
2. rice migratory pest according to claim 1 moves into peak method for early warning, it is characterised in that：This method utilizes
WRF patterns move into the numerical simulation of the atmospheric background progress system of process to the rice migratory pest of required monitoring and early warning,
Migrated behavioral ecology parameter according to the correlation of the insect, the insect is calculated with reference to HYSPLIT patterns or FlexPart patterns
Migrate track, its worm sources area of moving out, aerial migration pathway and landing diffusion profile area are determined, according to migrate track and the drop of determination
Worm area density profile carries out early warning.
3. rice migratory pest according to claim 2 moves into peak method for early warning, it is characterised in that：The correlation is migrated
Behavioral ecology parameter includes taking off insects sources, takeoff condition, the departure time, release flight level, flight after area's air
Environmental limits, migrate last, the landing time, descent altitude, drop conditions, can dropping zone distribution.
4. rice migratory pest according to claim 2 moves into peak method for early warning, it is characterised in that：The rice migrates
Property insect include rice leaf roller, brown paddy plant hopper, white backed planthopper.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201710707869.3A CN107704945A (en) | 2017-08-17 | 2017-08-17 | Rice migratory pest moves into peak method for early warning |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201710707869.3A CN107704945A (en) | 2017-08-17 | 2017-08-17 | Rice migratory pest moves into peak method for early warning |
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| Publication Number | Publication Date |
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| CN107704945A true CN107704945A (en) | 2018-02-16 |
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ID=61170207
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| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201710707869.3A Pending CN107704945A (en) | 2017-08-17 | 2017-08-17 | Rice migratory pest moves into peak method for early warning |
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Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN109029558A (en) * | 2018-06-27 | 2018-12-18 | 贵州省烟草公司黔东南州公司 | A kind of prodenia litura monitoring system and prediction technique based on big data |
| CN113592418A (en) * | 2021-05-25 | 2021-11-02 | 红火蚁科技有限公司 | Method and system for generating control track of solenopsis invicta, electronic device and storage medium |
| CN114814818A (en) * | 2022-06-30 | 2022-07-29 | 三亚中国农业科学院国家南繁研究院 | Insect radar monitoring-based pest migration path simulation method |
-
2017
- 2017-08-17 CN CN201710707869.3A patent/CN107704945A/en active Pending
Cited By (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN109029558A (en) * | 2018-06-27 | 2018-12-18 | 贵州省烟草公司黔东南州公司 | A kind of prodenia litura monitoring system and prediction technique based on big data |
| CN113592418A (en) * | 2021-05-25 | 2021-11-02 | 红火蚁科技有限公司 | Method and system for generating control track of solenopsis invicta, electronic device and storage medium |
| CN114814818A (en) * | 2022-06-30 | 2022-07-29 | 三亚中国农业科学院国家南繁研究院 | Insect radar monitoring-based pest migration path simulation method |
| CN114814818B (en) * | 2022-06-30 | 2022-09-06 | 三亚中国农业科学院国家南繁研究院 | Insect radar monitoring-based pest migration path simulation method |
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Address after: 210044 No. 219 Ning six road, Jiangbei new district, Nanjing, Jiangsu Applicant after: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Address before: No. 69, Jianye District, Jianye District, Nanjing, Jiangsu Applicant before: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology |
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Application publication date: 20180216 |