CN107578126A - A kind of method of airport security number prediction - Google Patents
A kind of method of airport security number prediction Download PDFInfo
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- CN107578126A CN107578126A CN201710757935.8A CN201710757935A CN107578126A CN 107578126 A CN107578126 A CN 107578126A CN 201710757935 A CN201710757935 A CN 201710757935A CN 107578126 A CN107578126 A CN 107578126A
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of method of airport security number prediction, comprise the following steps：Step A：According to history flight safety inspection data, find out domestic, international flight and added up safety check number ratio and the relation away from Proposed Departure time duration, utilize linear regression fit model；Step B：The model being fitted according to step A, with reference to following flight check-in data and following flight planning, calculate before the flight planning departure time different time points added up safety check number, then the safety check number in the period is obtained by the difference for adding up safety check number of adjacent 2 points of different flights, it is finally cumulative to the different flight safety check numbers in different time sections to obtain domestic, international security check safety check number in following each period.A kind of method of airport security number prediction provided by the invention, can realize and the following one day safety check number per N minutes in airport is predicted, to support airport reasonable arrangement security staff and security check passage.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of method of airport security number prediction, belong to information system technical field.
Background technology
Important transport hub of the airport as conveying passenger, safety check work are the important contents during operation, and airport exists
In the case that security staff is limited, how reasonable arrangement security staff and security check passage it is high or low to tackle different time
The problem of passenger traffic volume is a urgent need to resolve.Such as the long land that abounds in rivers and lakes border machine in Kunming as Southwest China door world hub
, flight amount is daily left the port more than 400 order of classes or grades at school, and number of daily leaving the port is more than 50,000.In order to effectively utilize Airport Resources, solution
Certainly business pain spot, lift production and operation efficiency, it is necessary to a kind of airport security number Forecasting Methodology is provided, so as to realize to airport
The following one day safety check number per N minutes is predicted, to support airport reasonable arrangement security staff and security check passage.
The content of the invention
The present invention be exactly in view of the deficienciess of the prior art, provide a kind of method of airport security number prediction, can
Realize and the following one day safety check number per N minutes in airport is predicted, to support airport reasonable arrangement security staff and security check passage.
To solve the above problems, the technical solution used in the present invention is as follows：
A kind of method of airport security number prediction, comprises the following steps：
Step A：According to history flight safety inspection data, find out domestic, international flight added up safety check number ratio with away from planning
Fly the relation of time duration, utilize linear regression fit model；
Step B：The model being fitted according to step A, with reference to following flight check-in data and following flight planning, calculate and navigated in distance
Different time points added up safety check number before the shift plan departure time, then added up peace by different flights adjacent 2 points
The difference of inspection number obtains the safety check number in the period, and finally the different flight safety check numbers in different time sections are added up
Domestic, international security check safety check number in following each period.
Compared with prior art, implementation result of the invention is as follows by the present invention：
The method of a kind of airport security number prediction of the present invention, it is contemplated that domestic, international flight security check is different, mould
Type based on history is domestic, passenger's safety inspection data of international flight, using models fitting flight added up safety check number ratio with away from
The relation of Proposed Departure time duration, calculated then in conjunction with following flight check-in data before away from the flight planning departure time not
Added up safety check number ratio with the time point flight, and extrapolated each flight according to this and safety check number is crossed in different time sections,
Domestic, international security check will receive how many passengers to carry out safety check in final prediction following each period, so as to be advantageous to support
Airport reasonable arrangement security staff and security check passage.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the Chang Shui International airports of Kunming on June 2 in 2016 international flight distribution histogram；
Fig. 2 is the domestic true number distribution of safety check in every ten minutes of the Chang Shui International airports of Kunming on June 2 in 2016 and prediction number point
Cloth contrast schematic diagram（More smooth line is prediction data, and more sharp line is real data）；
Fig. 3 is that the every ten minutes international amperes in the Chang Shui International airports of Kunming on June 2 in 2016 examine true number distribution and prediction number point
Cloth contrast schematic diagram（More smooth line is prediction data, and more sharp line is real data）.
Embodiment
Illustrate present disclosure below in conjunction with specific embodiments, the present embodiment is with Kunming Chang Shui International airports
Exemplified by historical data and number prediction, it is obvious that, method provided by the present invention is not only applicable to Kunming Chang Shui
International airport.
Model is broadly divided into two benches：Domestic, international passengers' safety check rule fitting and following day part（Per N minutes）
Domestic, international security check safety check number prediction.
Domestic, international passengers' safety check rule fitting mainly according to history flight safety inspection data, is found out domestic, international
Flight added up safety check number ratio and the relation away from Proposed Departure time duration, utilized linear regression fit model.
Following day part（Per N minutes）Domestic, international security check safety check number prediction is mainly fitted according to previous stage
Model, with reference to following flight check-in data and following flight planning, calculate when different before the flight planning departure time
Between put added up safety check number, the period is then obtained by the difference for adding up safety check number of adjacent 2 points of different flights
Interior safety check number, it is finally cumulative to the different flight safety check numbers in different time sections to obtain following each period（Divide per N
Clock）Interior domestic, international security check safety check number.
One：Domestic, international passengers' safety check linear regression model
It is different due to arranging for the different passengers of same flight, arrive at the airport and the time of safety check is different, that is,
Say the Each point in time before flight planning takes off be likely to passenger arrive at the airport carry out safety check, flight meter can not be determined
Draw whether Each point in time before taking off has passenger to cross safety check.But for all flights, it was determined that apart from flight
The Proposed Departure time is nearer, and the number for adding up safety check is bigger.Historical passenger safety inspection data is utilized accordingly, and different flights are in passenger
The duration that the time point of safety check calculates the time and the flight planning departure time is poor（Time_diff, unit：Minute）With the time
Point added up safety check number（rate）.Because different flights are in different times passenger total number of persons difference, in order to preferably carve
Flight safety check number and the relation of time are drawn, the safety check number that added up of each flight Each point in time is changed into and added up peace
Inspection number ratio.
1.1：For domestic flight
By taking the Chang Shui International airports of Kunming as an example：Flight of the Kunming Chang Shui International airports more than 90% is domestic flight, in order to more smart
True determination flight safety check number and the relation of time, divide boat department and moment（Hour where the flight planning departure time）Check
Add up safety check number ratio and time difference under different grouping（The duration for calculating time point and the flight planning departure time is poor）Pass
Whether system has notable difference.
It can be known by statistics, added up between safety check number ratio boat department different from time difference relation without obvious
Difference, and obvious difference between at different moments be present.In addition, time difference and accumulative safety check can be known from statistics
Presence non-linear relation between number ratio.
Therefore, line translation time_diff_norm=1/ is entered to the time difference（1+exp（time_diff/60））, and build line
Shape regression model, obtain the time difference at different moments（time_diff）Added up safety check number ratio with flight（rate）Relation：
rate=inter+coef*time_diff_norm
Wherein inter is intercept, and coef is slope, time_diff_norm=1/ [1+exp（time_diff）] it is after changing
Time difference.
1.2：For international flight
By taking the Chang Shui International airports of Kunming as an example：As shown in Figure 1, the international flight amount of Kunming Chang Shui International airports is less, when each
The skewness at quarter, so that on June 2nd, 2016 actually holds winged international flight as an example, international flight when 13 is most, but only
6 classes.
In addition, adding up safety check number ratio and the relation of time difference by counting different boat departments at different moments, can know
Obvious difference being present between the distribution of interior different boat departments at different moments, same boat department is relatively small in difference at different moments, because
This, for international flight, is modeled by packet condition of boat department.In addition, for international flight, time difference and accumulative safety check people
There is obvious linear dependence between number ratio, without carrying out conversion process to the time difference.Fit time is poor（time_diff）With
Flight added up safety check number ratio（rate）Relational result is as follows：
rate=inter+coef*（time_diff/60）
Wherein inter is intercept, and coef is slope, in addition to solve the covering problem of boat department's all standing and new boat department, it is single
Solely structure model（ALL in upper table）.
Two：Domestic, international security check safety check number prediction
Number prediction in domestic, international security check is mainly linear using following flight check-in data and the country, international flight safety check
Model added up the safety check time calculate Each point in time before flight planning takes off, can so extrapolate flight adjacent two
Safety check number in period between individual time point, finally add up day part（Per N minutes）Interior all flight safety check numbers obtain not
Carry out the safety check number in each period in one day.Specific implementation method is：
2.1：Build one time point table times of future
Due to model in order to check the different periods of following one day（Per N minutes）Safety check number, and domestic, international flight safety check
The output of people's exponential model be Each point in time accumulative safety check number ratio, then firstly the need of by the time of following one day according to solid
Fixed duration is divided, and is divided into M time point for using following one day time.Such as：It is pre- on June 1st, 2016
The safety check number of every ten minutes in 2 days June in 2016 is surveyed, then was duration by time tomorrow with 10 minutes（From 00:00—24:
00）It is divided into 145 points, the table of one 145 record of generation：
2.2：Obtain the check-in data Tab1 and one day flight planning table Tab2 of future of following one day flight
Set out the international stop over international flight of the stop over country most Zhongdao for Kunming, its Kunming is set out to the segment trip of domestic airport
Visitor is different with the security check that the big section passenger that Kunming is set out to the world is all, then needs separately to handle such stop over flight.
Following one day data are extracted from flight check-in table（Including stop over but do not include shared）Tab1, from flight planning
Following one day flight planning is extracted in table（Including stop over but do not include shared）Tab2, Tab2 and Tab1 tables are associated, obtained not
Carry out the check-in data of flight in one day.Due to failing to cover all country, international flight in Tab1, then need to not getting
The flight of check-in data carries out check-in number filling processing.
2.3：Processing is filled to the flight without check-in data
Because Tab1 tables can not realize all flight all standings, therefore some flights can be come out without check-in data, then needed to value
The flight of machine shortage of data is filled.
Different in view of the number of passengers in different course lines, there is the check-in number of non-stop flight and stop over flight in same course line
Institute's difference, then need to carry out group padding to the check-in data for lacking flight, main method is：
2.3.1：The flight Tab1 data of the long water dispenser field in Kunming of nearest one week are extracted, due to holding flight class and warp in same course line
The check-in number for the class of suspending difference, tag processes are carried out to each flight：Non-stop flight, stop over segment flight, stop over are big
Duan Hangban.
2.3.:2：Using departure place, destination, stop over label is flown nonstop to as packet condition, collects the average value under different grouping
Machine number, obtain the average check-in number table T_code3 in course line.
2.3.3：The problem of in view of newly-increased course line, then further using label both at home and abroad, fly nonstop to stop over label to be grouped
Condition, collect the average check-in number under different grouping, the average check-in number table T_sum collected.
2.3.4：To the flight without check-in data firstly the need of judge whether flight is flown nonstop to, stop over segment either stop over it is big
Section, tag processes are carried out, then utilize course line average check-in number table T_code3 and the average check-in number table T_sum collected
It is filled processing.
2.4：Calculate each flight different time points added up the safety check time
After all flights and check-in data for obtaining setting out on following one day airport, then it can calculate each flight and plan
Fly preceding different time points added up the safety check time, and specific method is：
2.4.1：Added up safety check at each time point due to calculating each flight using domestic, international flight safety check linear shape model
Number needs the difference of point before the flight planning departure time and the flight planning departure time as input condition, then first with
One time point table times of future associates flight planning table, obtains institute that each flight planning takes off within first 400 minutes sometimes
Between point（It is to pass through：M- 400 minutes during Proposed Departure<=time point times<=Proposed Departure the time, as condition of contact shape
Result table is obtained into local cartesian product）.
2.4.1：Time difference of each flight in different time points is calculated in data basis above（Time_diff, it is single
Position：Minute）：M- time point times during Proposed Departure, and calculate the conversion time_diff_norm=1/ [1+exp of time difference
（time_diff/60）].
2.4.1：According to the attribute of flight（Proposed Departure moment, both at home and abroad mark, boat department）Association is domestic, international flight
Safety check linear shape model result table, obtain domestic, international flight and add up safety check scale model parameter（inter、ceof）, utilize public affairs
Formula：Accumulative safety check number ratio=inter+（Domestic time_diff_norm | international time_diff/60）* ceof is calculated each
Flight added up safety check number ratio different time points, and each flight is extrapolated when different according to ratio and check-in number
Between put added up safety check number.It should be noted that：For domestic flight, if the mould without the period in safety check linear shape model
Shape parameter, then using parameter when 23；For international flight, if the model parameter without the boat department in safety check linear shape model,
Standard is used as using ALL parameter.
2.5：Calculate each flight different periods crosses safety check number
Obtain each flight different time points added up safety check number after, auto correlation obtains each flight different time
Next time point of point added up safety check number, subtracted current point in time by the safety check number that added up at next time point
Added up safety check number, you can show that how many people crosses safety check to the flight altogether within ensuing N minutes at the time point.
2.6：Calculate total safety check number of day part in one day future
Using time point and both at home and abroad label as packet condition, collect calculate different time points start to share within N minutes it is how many
Domestic or international passenger crosses safety check, that is, obtains domestic, international security check different time points within one day future and start in N minutes
Safety check number.It is following to illustrate the domestic following every ten minutes one day safety check number：
Three：Model evaluation
The every ten minutes safety check numbers in Kunming Chang Shui International airports domestic, international security check on June 2nd, 2016 are carried out using model
Prediction, as a result as shown in Figures 2 and 3.
In the accompanying drawing 2 and 3 of prediction it can be seen from to(for) the domestic every ten minutes safety check numbers in security check, safety check people is predicted
Number distribution is overall similar to true distribution, and reflection of the prediction result on peak value is accurately and timely.
Predicted for the every ten minutes safety check numbers in international security check, due to the missing of international true safety inspection data so that
Prediction data distribution is obvious compared to domestic security check with the difference between True Data distribution, but in the reflection of peak value and
The same accurate and timely in domestic security check.
Above content is detailed description made for the present invention in conjunction with specific embodiments, it is impossible to assert that the present invention is specific real
Apply and be only limitted to these explanations.For those skilled in the art, before present inventive concept is not departed from
Put, some simple deduction or replace can also be made, should all be considered as belonging to the scope of protection of the invention.
Claims (6)
1. a kind of method of airport security number prediction, it is characterized in that, comprise the following steps：
Step A：According to history flight safety inspection data, find out domestic, international flight added up safety check number ratio with away from planning
Fly the relation of time duration, utilize linear regression fit model；
Step B：The model being fitted according to step A, with reference to following flight check-in data and following flight planning, calculate and navigated in distance
Different time points added up safety check number before the shift plan departure time, then added up peace by different flights adjacent 2 points
The difference of inspection number obtains the safety check number in the period, and finally the different flight safety check numbers in different time sections are added up
Domestic, international security check safety check number in following each period.
2. a kind of method of airport security number prediction as claimed in claim 1, it is characterized in that, step A include step A1 and
Step A2, and step A1 and step A2 is without precedence relationship：
Step A1：The relation that time difference and flight at different moments added up safety check number ratio is fitted to domestic flight：
Rate=inter+coef*time_diff_norm,
Wherein time_diff is the time difference at different moments, and rate is that flight added up safety check number ratio, and inter is intercept,
Coef is slope, time_diff_norm=1/ [1+exp（time_diff）] for conversion after time difference；
Step A2：Added up the relation of safety check number ratio with flight to international flight fit time difference：
rate=inter+coef*（time_diff/60）,
Wherein time_diff is the time difference, and rate is that flight added up safety check number ratio, and inter is intercept, and coef is oblique
Rate.
3. a kind of method of airport security number prediction as claimed in claim 2, it is characterized in that, step B comprises the following steps：
Step B1：The following time point table of structure；
Step B2：Obtain the check-in data of following one day flight and following one day flight planning table；
Step B3：Processing is filled to the flight without check-in data；
Step B4：Calculate each flight different time points added up the safety check time；
Step B5：Calculate each flight different periods crosses safety check number；
Step B6：Calculate total safety check number of day part in one day future.
4. a kind of method of airport security number prediction as claimed in claim 3, it is characterized in that, step B3 includes following step
Suddenly：
Step B3.1：The flight data of nearest one week is extracted, tag processes are carried out to each flight：Non-stop flight, stop over segment
Big section of flight of flight, stop over；
Step B 3.2：Using departure place, destination, stop over label is flown nonstop to as packet condition, collects the average check-in under different grouping
Number, obtain the average check-in number table in course line；
Step B 3.3：Using label both at home and abroad, stop over label is flown nonstop to as packet condition, collects the average check-in under different grouping
Number, the average check-in number table collected；
Step B 3.4：To the flight without check-in data firstly the need of judge whether flight is flown nonstop to, stop over segment either stop over it is big
Section, tag processes are carried out, be then filled processing using the average check-in number table in course line and the average check-in number table collected.
5. a kind of method of airport security number prediction as claimed in claim 4, it is characterized in that, step B4 includes following step
Suddenly：
Step B 4.1：Flight planning table is associated first with a following time point table, is obtained before each flight planning takes off
All time points within 400 minutes；
Step B 4.2：Time difference of each flight in different time points is calculated in the data basis of step B 4.1：Plan
M- time point when flying, and calculate the conversion time_diff_norm=1/ [1+exp of time difference（time_diff/60）]；
Step B 4.3：According to the Attribute Association of the flight country, international flight safety check linear shape model result table, obtain domestic, international
Flight adds up safety check scale model parameter, utilizes formula：Accumulative safety check number ratio=inter+（Domestic time_diff_norm |
International time_diff/60）* ceof calculates each flight and added up safety check number ratio in different time points, according to ratio and
Check-in number extrapolates each flight and added up safety check number in different time points.
6. a kind of method of airport security number prediction as claimed in claim 5, it is characterized in that, in step B4.3, for
Domestic flight, if the model parameter without the period in safety check linear shape model, uses parameter when 23；For international flight,
If the model parameter without the boat department in safety check linear shape model, the univers parameter using whole boat departments is used as standard.
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| CN110717616A (en) * | 2019-08-30 | 2020-01-21 | 中国南方航空股份有限公司 | Civil aviation unit human resource prediction method, electronic equipment and storage medium |
| CN110751340A (en) * | 2019-10-29 | 2020-02-04 | 广东机场白云信息科技有限公司 | Method and system for forecasting and analyzing pedestrian flow in airport security check area |
| CN110751329A (en) * | 2019-10-17 | 2020-02-04 | 中国民用航空总局第二研究所 | Control method and device for airport security check channel, electronic equipment and storage medium |
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| CN109146308A (en) * | 2018-09-05 | 2019-01-04 | 广东工业大学 | The safety inspection method of airport security resource utilization can be effectively improved |
| CN109146308B (en) * | 2018-09-05 | 2022-05-10 | 广东工业大学 | Security inspection method capable of effectively improving airport security inspection resource utilization rate |
| CN110348422A (en) * | 2019-07-18 | 2019-10-18 | 北京地平线机器人技术研发有限公司 | Image processing method, device, computer readable storage medium and electronic equipment |
| CN110717616A (en) * | 2019-08-30 | 2020-01-21 | 中国南方航空股份有限公司 | Civil aviation unit human resource prediction method, electronic equipment and storage medium |
| CN110751329A (en) * | 2019-10-17 | 2020-02-04 | 中国民用航空总局第二研究所 | Control method and device for airport security check channel, electronic equipment and storage medium |
| CN110751340A (en) * | 2019-10-29 | 2020-02-04 | 广东机场白云信息科技有限公司 | Method and system for forecasting and analyzing pedestrian flow in airport security check area |
| CN112990622A (en) * | 2019-12-12 | 2021-06-18 | 深圳云天励飞技术有限公司 | People flow based security check personnel adjusting method and related device |
| CN111832820A (en) * | 2020-07-09 | 2020-10-27 | 飞友科技有限公司 | Method and system for predicting pedestrian flow of each gate at airport |
| CN112396340A (en) * | 2020-11-30 | 2021-02-23 | 中国民航信息网络股份有限公司 | Method, apparatus, electronic device and computer storage medium for reserving luggage |
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Application publication date: 20180112 |