CN107563637A - A kind of hydropower station scheduling proximal border operation panorama fuzzy risk analysis method - Google Patents
A kind of hydropower station scheduling proximal border operation panorama fuzzy risk analysis method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
A kind of hydropower station scheduling proximal border operation panorama fuzzy risk analysis method of disclosure of the invention, including：The forecast run-off and measured runoff data in power station are obtained, run-off is classified, the other prediction error fuzzy membership function of each radial stage is counted using Runoff Forecast error information；Level changing amplitude is allowed to determine power station proximal border range of operation according to the day operation in power station；According to water level at the beginning of two Phase flow process, schedule periods and last water level, optimal power generation scheduling scheme is obtained；According to water level and last water level, optimal power generation scheduling scheme at the beginning of the other prediction error fuzzy membership function of N number of radial stage, schedule periods, the credible value under each schedule periods first water level and last water level combination is obtained；It is worth according to credibility, obtains the integrated risk value that water or undercapacity are abandoned in power station.The present invention, which comprehensively and effectively features, to be abandoned water caused by runoff prediction error in the short-term electricity generation scheduling of power station or owes risk.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to HYDROELECTRIC ENERGY optimization operation and power system generation optimization scheduling field, more particularly, to one
Kind hydropower station scheduling proximal border operation panorama fuzzy risk analysis method.
Background technology
In the short term scheduling of power station, generation schedule is the important evidence of the daily production run in power station, but generation schedule is compiled
System is with implementing existence time nonuniformity, when working out next schedule periods generation schedule using forecast information, due to forecast not
Certainty, the generation schedule of formulation are not often consistent with actual incoming.It is this inclined generally due to the pondage capacity of reservoir
The influence of difference can be ignored, but when reservoir is at proximal border operation (close to normal pool level or level of dead water), reservoir is regulated and stored
Amount substantially reduces, it is possible to produce abandons water or undercapacity.Therefore, it is uncertain based on Runoff Forecast, it is short-term to carry out power station
The risk analysis of power generation dispatching proximal border operation, quantify power station abandoning water or owe wind under different proximal border running situations
Danger, scientific basis and decision support can be provided for the generation schedule establishment based on Runoff Forecast in actual production.
Power station proximal border operation and corresponding control scheduling belong to the category of Risk Scheduling, in the water based on Runoff Forecast
In the power generation dispatching risk analysis of power station, Runoff Forecast error is most important one in numerous risk factors.At present in this respect
Research achieved quite abundant achievement, but studied and also led based on the stochastic behaviour of error, its research method more
If the risk analysis method based on Probability Theory and Math Statistics, for example, typical probability distribution function computational methods, based on pattra leaves
The risk rate estimation method of this theorem and Probability Combination Method etc., and based on the power generation dispatching risk analysis of prediction error ambiguity into
Fruit is still rare.In fact, constantly change caused by the complexity of objective world and perpetual motion, when people use with
When machine method goes to handle chance phenomenon, the phenomenon studied be not in fact it is inherent be exactly it is random, these phenomenons except with
Outside machine, also with a kind of more common of fuzzy uncertainty.It is well known that hydrologic forecast model is uncertain by input
Property, the influence of self structure and parameter uncertainty and many artificial uncertain factors, complexity is high, it is difficult to accurately retouches
State, therefore hydrologic forecast error is accompanied by very big ambiguity while with randomness.Therefore, hydrologic forecast is only carried out
The stochastic uncertainty research of error, can not express the uncertainty of prediction error exactly, cannot also portray water comprehensively
Water is abandoned caused by prediction error or owe risk in the short-term electricity generation scheduling of power station.
As can be seen here, there is the uncertainty that can not describe Runoff Forecast error exactly in prior art, it is impossible to make runoff
Prediction error ambiguity is able to effective expression in the analysis of power station short-term electricity generation schedule risk, so as to portray water power comprehensively
Water is abandoned caused by runoff prediction error or owe the technical problem of risk in short-term electricity generation of standing scheduling proximal border operation.
The content of the invention
For the disadvantages described above or Improvement requirement of prior art, the invention provides a kind of hydropower station to dispatch proximal border
Panorama fuzzy risk analysis method is run, thus solution prior art, which exists, can not describe the not true of Runoff Forecast error exactly
It is qualitative, it is impossible to Runoff Forecast error ambiguity is able to effective expression in the analysis of power station short-term electricity generation schedule risk, so as to
It can not comprehensively portray and abandon water caused by runoff prediction error in the short-term electricity generation scheduling proximal border operation of power station or owe risk
Technical problem.
To achieve the above object, the invention provides a kind of hydropower station scheduling proximal border operation panorama fuzzy risk point
Analysis method, including：
(1) measured runoff data, forecast run-off data, Runoff Forecast error information and the power station in power station are obtained
Day operation allows level changing amplitude, and measured runoff data are classified, N number of runoff rank is obtained, utilizes Runoff Forecast
Error information counts the other prediction error fuzzy membership function of each radial stage；Water level is allowed according to the day operation in power station
Amplitude of variation determines power station proximal border range of operation；
(2) two Phase flow process corresponding to each runoff rank is obtained, by the water in the proximal border range of operation of power station
Position is discrete, obtains M schedule periods just water level and M scheduling end of term water level, then water level at the beginning of M schedule periods and M are dispatched into the end of term
Water level combination, obtain M2The first water level of individual schedule periods and last water level combination, according to N number of two Phase flow process, M2The first water level of individual schedule periods
With last water level combination, N*M is obtained2Individual power station optimal power generation scheduling scheme；
(3) according to the forecast run-off data in power station, forecast run-off data is classified, obtain N number of radial stage
Not, according to the other prediction error fuzzy membership function of N number of radial stage, M2The first water level of individual schedule periods and last water level combination, N*M2It is individual
Power station optimal power generation scheduling scheme, obtains M2Individual schedule periods just in water level and last water level combination each schedule periods just water level and
Credible value under last water level combination；
(4) according to M2In the first water level of individual schedule periods and last water level combination under each schedule periods first water level and last water level combination
Credible value, obtain the integrated risk value that water or undercapacity are abandoned in power station.
Further, prediction error fuzzy membership function is described as：Triangle-Profile, trapezoidal profile or Cauchy point
Cloth.
Further, step (3) includes：
(3-1) is classified to forecast run-off data according to the forecast run-off data in power station, obtains N number of runoff
Rank；
(3-2) utilizes the other prediction error fuzzy membership function of each radial stage, obtains the other R of each radial stage
Individual ambiguity error, until obtaining the other N*R ambiguity error of N number of radial stage；
(3-3) obtains the run-off of N*R consideration prediction error according to N number of runoff rank and its corresponding ambiguity error
Process, to water level at the beginning of N*R run-off process and M schedule periods, the optimal power generation scheduling scheme in power station is performed, obtains M2It is individual
Credible value in the first water level of schedule periods and last water level combination under each schedule periods first water level and last water level combination.
Further, the specific implementation of step (4) is：
According to M2In the first water level of individual schedule periods and last water level combination under each schedule periods first water level and last water level combination
Credibility value, the curve that credible value changes and changed with runoff rank is obtained, curve is with reference axis institute envelope surface product representation at certain
The risk of water or undercapacity is abandoned in power station under one first water level of schedule periods and last water level combination, according to M2At the beginning of individual schedule periods
The curve that the credible value of water level and last water level combination changes with the change of forecast run-off rank, full power station will be obtained in future
The integrated risk value for abandoning water or undercapacity in the case of scape.
In general, by the contemplated above technical scheme of the present invention compared with prior art, it can obtain down and show
Beneficial effect：
The present invention realizes by introducing credible value and considers that the power station short-term electricity generation of Runoff Forecast error ambiguity is adjusted
Spend proximal border operation fuzzy risk analysis, compared with traditional hydropower station schedule risk analysis, the inventive method based on
The more common of fuzzy uncertainty of Runoff Forecast error, the uncertain of Runoff Forecast error is expressed from development with can improving
Property, abandon water so as to comprehensively and effectively portray caused by runoff prediction error in the short-term electricity generation scheduling of power station or owe risk,
Have a extensive future.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is a kind of hydropower station scheduling proximal border operation panorama fuzzy risk analysis side provided in an embodiment of the present invention
The flow chart of method；
Fig. 2 is the Jinxi power station incoming distribution of grades that the embodiment of the present invention 1 provides and corresponding empirical Frequency；
Fig. 3 is the fuzzy membership function of Runoff Forecast error under the different incoming frequencies that the embodiment of the present invention 1 provides；
Fig. 4 is the panorama fuzzy risk space for the nearly high water level border operation in power station that the embodiment of the present invention 1 provides；
Fig. 5 is the panorama fuzzy risk space for the nearly low water level border operation in power station that the embodiment of the present invention 1 provides.
Embodiment
In order to make the purpose , technical scheme and advantage of the present invention be clearer, it is right below in conjunction with drawings and Examples
The present invention is further elaborated.It should be appreciated that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the present invention, and
It is not used in the restriction present invention.As long as in addition, technical characteristic involved in each embodiment of invention described below
Conflict can is not formed each other to be mutually combined.
As shown in figure 1, a kind of hydropower station scheduling proximal border operation panorama fuzzy risk analysis method, including：
(1) measured runoff data, forecast run-off data, Runoff Forecast error information and the power station in power station are obtained
Day operation allows level changing amplitude, and measured runoff data are classified, N number of runoff rank is obtained, utilizes Runoff Forecast
Error information counts the other prediction error fuzzy membership function of each radial stage；Water level is allowed according to the day operation in power station
Amplitude of variation determines power station proximal border range of operation；
(2) two Phase flow process corresponding to each runoff rank is obtained, by the water in the proximal border range of operation of power station
Position is discrete, obtains M schedule periods just water level and M scheduling end of term water level, then water level at the beginning of M schedule periods and M are dispatched into the end of term
Water level combination, obtain M2The first water level of individual schedule periods and last water level combination, according to N number of two Phase flow process, M2The first water level of individual schedule periods
With last water level combination, N*M is obtained2Individual power station optimal power generation scheduling scheme；
(3) according to the forecast run-off data in power station, forecast run-off data is classified, obtain N number of radial stage
Not, according to the other prediction error fuzzy membership function of N number of radial stage, M2The first water level of individual schedule periods and last water level combination, N*M2It is individual
Power station optimal power generation scheduling scheme, obtains M2Individual schedule periods just in water level and last water level combination each schedule periods just water level and
Credible value under last water level combination；
(4) according to M2In the first water level of individual schedule periods and last water level combination under each schedule periods first water level and last water level combination
Credible value, obtain the integrated risk value that water or undercapacity are abandoned in power station.
The embodiment of the present invention is preferable, and prediction error fuzzy membership function is described as：Triangle-Profile, trapezoidal profile or
Person Cauchy is distributed.
Wherein, when prediction error fuzzy membership function is described as Triangle-Profile, prediction error fuzzy variable ξ person in servitude
Category degree obeys Triangle-Profile,
If s and n are respectively prediction error fuzzy number ε lower and upper limit, m is the maximum value of possibility, then uses ternary
Group (s, m, n) represents prediction error fuzzy variable ξ.Its prediction error fuzzy membership functions μ (ε) is represented by：
When prediction error fuzzy membership function is described as trapezoidal profile, prediction error fuzzy variable ξ degree of membership clothes
It is distributed from Cauchy, its prediction error fuzzy membership function μ (ε) is represented by：
In formula：ε is prediction error fuzzy number, represents a prediction error fuzzy variable ξ specific value；Ew+、Ew-Respectively
Represent the assembly average of positive error and negative error；σ is weight, is typically taken as 2.333.
The embodiment of the present invention is preferable, and step (3) includes：
(3-1) is classified to forecast run-off data according to the forecast run-off data in power station, obtains N number of runoff
Rank；
(3-2) utilizes the other prediction error fuzzy membership function of each radial stage, obtains the other R of each radial stage
Individual ambiguity error, until obtaining the other N*R ambiguity error of N number of radial stage；
(3-3) obtains the run-off of N*R consideration prediction error according to N number of runoff rank and its corresponding ambiguity error
Process, to water level at the beginning of N*R run-off process and M schedule periods, the optimal power generation scheduling scheme in power station is performed, obtains M2It is individual
Credible value in the first water level of schedule periods and last water level combination under each schedule periods first water level and last water level combination.
The embodiment of the present invention is preferable, and the specific implementation of step (4) is：
According to M2In the first water level of individual schedule periods and last water level combination under each schedule periods first water level and last water level combination
Credibility value, the curve that credible value changes and changed with runoff rank is obtained, curve is with reference axis institute envelope surface product representation at certain
The risk of water or undercapacity is abandoned in power station under one first water level of schedule periods and last water level combination, according to M2At the beginning of individual schedule periods
The curve that the credible value of water level and last water level combination changes with the change of forecast run-off rank, full power station will be obtained in future
The integrated risk value for abandoning water or undercapacity in the case of scape.
Embodiment 1
The present invention is surveyed with long series by taking the Jinxi power station of China's Yalong river valley as an example, forecasts footpath flow data and electricity
Based on generation schedule of standing works out the actual flow with performing, in the panorama fuzzy risk analysis method that is provided to the power station
Short-term electricity generation scheduling proximal border operation risk is calculated, and carries out analysis refinement to result, is reached with showing patent of the present invention
Effect.
Yalongjiang River is the first big tributary of Jinsha jiang River, and mainstream is total to 22 grades of power stations of planning construction, at present the water power in Yalongjiang River downstream
Exploitation is basically completed, and built five power stations (Jinxi, Jin Dong, land owned by officials, two beaches and seeds of a tung oil tree woods) have been put into operation, wherein Jinxi
Power station has year regulation performance, is the leading power station of Yalongjiang River downstream stage, and its management and running level directly determines downstream ladder
The overall power benefit of level.Therefore Jinxi power station is selected in the present invention as research object.The normal pool level in the power station with it is dead
Water level is 1880m and 1800m respectively.The step of embodiment of the present invention 1, is as follows：
Step 1：Runoff is classified and prediction error analysis of uncertainty.Because different frequency incoming has different error point
Cloth, therefore before Runoff Forecast error ambiguity analysis is carried out, need to be surveyed first using long series, forecast carrys out flow data as base
Plinth, incoming is classified, and counts the empirical Frequency of different magnitude incomings, secondly CALCULATING PREDICTION error series, and inquired into each
Prediction error fuzzy membership function corresponding to incoming frequency.
Step 2：Determine proximal border scope.From the foregoing it will be appreciated that the normal pool level in Jinxi power station is respectively with level of dead water
1880m and 1800m, and the actual requirement run according to power station short term scheduling, no more than 1.5 meters of water level daily amplitude, therefore
In short-term electricity generation scheduling proximal border operation risk analysis of the power station, proximal border scope can be set to [1878.5,1880] and [1800,
1801.5], bounds when wherein the former is power station nearly high water level operation, border when the latter is the nearly low water level operation in power station
Scope.
Step 3：Water level is discrete in the range of proximal border, combines.Proximal border scope is determined according to step 2, to its water level
Refine it is discrete, to reflect all possible proximal border water level combination situation as far as possible.Using 0.05m as step-length in the present invention
Carry out discrete combination to the water level of proximal border scope, thus one share 31 × 31=961 schedule periods at the beginning of, last water level combination.
Step 4：According to foregoing panorama risk analysis method and its implementation process, for each water level combination, pass through mould
Paste simulation calculating can obtain corresponding integrated risk (abandon water or owe).But, it is necessary to the institute that looks to the future in fuzzy simulation calculating
Possible water frequency and its different prediction errors.
Result after the embodiment of the present invention 1 is implemented is as follows：
(1) forecast error analysis result
By measuring runoff data, it can be found that the peak runoff in Jinxi power station about 5500m3/ s, minimum runoff is about
100m3/ s, therefore with [0,5600m in embodiment3/ s] it is incoming section, with 200m3/ s is that discrete steps are carried out to actual incoming
Classification, and its empirical Frequency is counted, as a result as shown in Figure 2.
For the incoming of different frequency, its back propagation net can be counted by the difference of measuring runoff and prediction runoff
Arrive, find more accurately reflect different prediction errors compared to other membership functions, Cauchy's distribution by actual calculate
Degree of membership relation.Therefore, in the present embodiment using Cauchy be distributed as Runoff Forecast error fuzzy membership function in the form of.Most
Eventually the prediction error fuzzy membership function of the corresponding different incoming frequencies of gained as shown in Figure 3 (using part incoming frequency as
Example).
(2) panorama fuzzy risk during nearly high water level operation
By panorama Fuzzy Analysis provided by the present invention, to the scheduling proximal border operation of Jinxi power station short-term electricity generation
Water risk of abandoning analyzed, the panorama fuzzy risk 3 dimensional drawing such as accompanying drawing 4 during the operation of the nearly high water level in the gained power station
It is shown.
From accompanying drawing 4, in generation schedule establishment, when water level is higher originally power station abandon water possibility it is larger,
Especially when close to normal pool level 1880m, larger risk be present, its reason be just water level closer to normal pool level,
Then reservoir operation phase available regulation storage capacity will abandon water with regard to smaller when forecasting that water water less than normal and actual is bigger than normal.
In addition, from accompanying drawing 4, power station also deposits one and abandons water excessive risk band, such as the right side area of accompanying drawing 4.In other cases,
The risk that water is abandoned in power station is almost nil, and such as the left field in accompanying drawing 4, therefore power station should use up when nearly high water level is run
Amount is located in these regions.
Comprehensive to understand, when Jinxi power station is run on nearly high water level border, on the one hand establishment generation schedule will avoid just water level
Higher situation, especially close to normal pool level situation；On the other hand, the banding risk shown in accompanying drawing 4 is avoided as far as possible
Region.
(3) panorama fuzzy risk during nearly low water level operation
By panorama Fuzzy Analysis provided by the present invention, to the scheduling proximal border operation of Jinxi power station short-term electricity generation
Undercapacity risk analyzed, panorama fuzzy risk 3 dimensional drawing during the nearly low water level operation in the gained power station is for example attached
Shown in Fig. 5.
From accompanying drawing 5, in generation schedule establishment, when water level is relatively low originally power station occur the possibility of undercapacity compared with
Greatly, especially larger risk be present when close to level of dead water 1800m, its reason is that just water level is closer to level of dead water, then reservoir
With regard to smaller when forecasting that water water bigger than normal and actual is less than normal undercapacity will occur for the available regulation storage capacity of schedule periods.This
Outside, from accompanying drawing 5, in first water level higher (about 1801m~1801.5m), last water level is relatively low (about 1800m~1800.5m)
When, the excessive risk band of a undercapacity is also deposited in power station, and in the belt-like zone, the risk about 0.3 of undercapacity occurs for power station
Left and right, if the higher and last water level of first water level that its reason is set when being establishment generation schedule is relatively low, then it represents that reservoir is in and discharged water
State, the water volume that can be utilized of reservoir with scheduling will gradually decrease, and when actual water is less than normal, power station is just likely to Yin Ku
Middle water volume that can be utilized is insufficient and undercapacity occurs.In other cases, there is very little risk for power station generation undercapacity, most of feelings
Condition is less than 0.2, therefore power station should try one's best in these regions in nearly low water level operation.
Comprehensive to understand, when Jinxi power station is run on nearly low water level border, on the one hand establishment generation schedule will avoid just water level
Relatively low situation, especially close to level of dead water situation；On the other hand, to avoid as far as possible in accompanying drawing 5 in the higher and last water of first water level
Banding risk zones when position is relatively low.
The embodiment of the present invention 1 is carried by taking China Yalong river valley Jinping I (Jinxi) power station as an example using the present invention
The method gone out carries out power station short-term electricity generation scheduling proximal border operation panorama fuzzy risk analysis, the results showed that institute's extracting method can
The coupling and conversion of hydrologic forecast error and power station schedule risk are effectively realized, power station can be analyzed comprehensively in different near side (ns)s
Water risk or undercapacity risk are abandoned during boundary's running situation, the power station is more specifically given and runs situation in different proximal borders
Under excessive risk operation area and suggest operation area, can be that generation schedule based on Runoff Forecast is compiled in the power station actual production
System provides scientific basis and decision support.
As it will be easily appreciated by one skilled in the art that the foregoing is merely illustrative of the preferred embodiments of the present invention, not to
The limitation present invention, all any modification, equivalent and improvement made within the spirit and principles of the invention etc., all should be included
Within protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (4)
- A kind of 1. hydropower station scheduling proximal border operation panorama fuzzy risk analysis method, it is characterised in that including：(1) measured runoff data, forecast run-off data, Runoff Forecast error information and the hydroelectric station fortune in power station are obtained Row allows level changing amplitude, and measured runoff data are classified, N number of runoff rank is obtained, utilizes Runoff Forecast error The other prediction error fuzzy membership function of each radial stage of data statistics；SEA LEVEL VARIATION is allowed according to the day operation in power station Amplitude determines power station proximal border range of operation；(2) obtain two Phase flow process corresponding to each runoff rank, by the water level in the proximal border range of operation of power station from Dissipate, obtain M schedule periods just water level and M scheduling end of term water level, then water level at the beginning of M schedule periods and M are dispatched into end of term water level Combination, obtains M2The first water level of individual schedule periods and last water level combination, according to N number of two Phase flow process, M2The first water level of individual schedule periods and end Water level combination, obtain N*M2Individual power station optimal power generation scheduling scheme；(3) according to the forecast run-off data in power station, forecast run-off data is classified, obtain N number of runoff rank, root According to the other prediction error fuzzy membership function of N number of radial stage, M2The first water level of individual schedule periods and last water level combination, N*M2Individual water power Optimal power generation of standing scheduling scheme, obtains M2The first water level of each schedule periods and last water in the first water level of individual schedule periods and last water level combination Credible value under bit combination；(4) according to M2Individual schedule periods just in water level and last water level combination each schedule periods just under water level and last water level combination can Letter property value, obtains the integrated risk value that water or undercapacity are abandoned in power station.
- 2. a kind of hydropower station scheduling proximal border operation panorama fuzzy risk analysis method as claimed in claim 1, it is special Sign is that the prediction error fuzzy membership function is described as：Triangle-Profile, trapezoidal profile or Cauchy's distribution.
- 3. a kind of hydropower station scheduling proximal border operation panorama fuzzy risk analysis method as claimed in claim 1, it is special Sign is that the step (3) includes：(3-1) is classified to forecast run-off data according to the forecast run-off data in power station, obtains N number of runoff rank；(3-2) utilizes the other prediction error fuzzy membership function of each radial stage, obtains the other R mould of each radial stage Error is pasted, until obtaining the other N*R ambiguity error of N number of radial stage；(3-3) obtains the run-off process of N*R consideration prediction error according to N number of runoff rank and its corresponding ambiguity error, To water level at the beginning of N*R run-off process and M schedule periods, the optimal power generation scheduling scheme in power station is performed, obtains M2Individual scheduling Credible value in initial water level and last water level combination under each schedule periods first water level and last water level combination.
- 4. a kind of hydropower station scheduling proximal border operation panorama fuzzy risk analysis method as claimed in claim 1, it is special Sign is that the specific implementation of the step (4) is：According to M2Credibility in the first water level of individual schedule periods and last water level combination under each schedule periods first water level and last water level combination Value, obtains the curve that credible value changes and changed with runoff rank, and curve is adjusted with reference axis institute envelope surface product representation at some The risk that water or undercapacity are abandoned in power station under initial water level and last water level combination is spent, according to M2Individual schedule periods just water level and The curve that the credible value of last water level combination changes with the change of forecast run-off rank, obtains power station in following panorama situation Under the integrated risk value for abandoning water or undercapacity.
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