CN103713336B - Based on the hydropower station basin areal rainfall meteorology forecast of GIS subarea - Google Patents
Based on the hydropower station basin areal rainfall meteorology forecast of GIS subarea Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of hydropower station basin areal rainfall meteorology forecast based on GIS subarea, on the basis of observatory's forecast model products and numerical forecasting product, the areal rainfall in each basin in administrative area is forecast, achieve Computer systems, automatic data acquisition, unified forecast is carried out in electrical network and regional all power stations, forecast precision is high, the access facility of data is realized by database link, by web network, realize the website orientation of weather information and browse, for electrical production and power scheduling provide scientific basis, have a good application prospect.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to electrical network weather advisory technical field, be specifically related to a kind of hydropower station basin areal rainfall meteorology forecast based on GIS subarea.
Background technology
Electrical network is an organic whole, in electrical network AC energy production, conveying with use total amount all changing at any time again, but all must keep again balance in any moment, so just can guarantee that power quality index meets state specified standards, power scheduling is to ensure the effective ladder of management of one that power network safety operation, externally reliable power supply, all kinds of electrical production work are carried out in order and adopted.And electrical production operation is subject to meteorological and environmental impact is more and more obvious, to the demand of weather information and application also more and more extensive, but be subject to the restriction of meteorological technical equipment and method of service, dispatching of power netwoks level is subject to direct impact, thus adds purchases strategies.
Safe and stable operation is continued in order to ensure electrical network, at present, grid company can combine local observatory, there is provided some short mid-range forecast weather informations by observatory, grid company can adjust the production schedule of each power plant according to the rainfall of the self-built reservoir drainage area rainfall automatic telemetering website observation of a series of forecast model products of local observatory and part power plant.But the practical application of some weather forecast products that observatory provides in water power scheduling and electrical network production run has following shortcoming:
1, the weather forecast product routine that mainly local observatory provides is forecast, the scope of forecast and synoptic process are slightly wide, are difficult to value; Add that power station, each counties and cities is evacuated, the local of precipitation is strong, Points replacing surfaces estimation range is excessive, representative not enough, is difficult to really reflect that the rainfall in region, each power station is live;
2, the numerical forecasting product less pertinence of weather forecast product is strong, great majority only forecast for the rainfall of the station or lattice point, do not have the special weather forecast for power scheduling for carrying out the interval traffic forecast of step, optimization of hydroelectric generation scheduling arranges, province Di great small power station's joint optimal operation provides decision-making foundation, electrical production is usually absorbed in passive reply situation;
3, there is limitation in the forecasting procedure of areal rainfall, and forecaster lacks forecast experience, occur that the forecast of Heavy Precipitation is accurate sometimes, but the forecast departure of areal rainfall is comparatively large, affects electrical production equally;
4, the reservoir drainage area rainfall automatic telemetering website that part power station is self-built is evacuated, weather information is delayed, be difficult to meet traffic forecast requirement, the ununified Weather Forecast Information of grid company institute possession County Power Plant and hydroelectric power plant, small hydropower station water and generating lack plan forecast.
Summary of the invention
At present, along with weather forecast technology development, all kinds of forecast model products is also increasing.Forecaster's forecast model products that meeting is likely not quite similar in the face of many results when making weather forecast, this can increase forecaster undoubtedly and analyze difficulty; Add that the level of single weather forecast product improves more and more difficult again, and there is uncertain, instability, this just needs to adopt Integrated Forecast Method, collects the chief of each forecast model products, reduces the indefinite forecast error caused of forecast accuracy fluctuating of single forecast model products.Hydropower station basin areal rainfall meteorology forecast based on GIS subarea of the present invention, utilize GIS technology, according to each step power station distribution situation, river, power station confluxes situation and rainfall Climatic Background Analysis, determine Area Precipitation Forecast scope and subregion, then from numerous rainfall amount forecast model products, choose on the higher forecast model products basis of forecast precision in actual applications, the areal rainfall of Integrated Forecast Method to each subregion is adopted to forecast, form the subregion areal rainfall integrative prediction product optimized, achieve the integrated forecast model products making different brackets areal rainfall for each step power station of electrical network different basins zontation, for electrical production and power scheduling provide scientific basis, have a good application prospect.
In order to achieve the above object, the technical solution adopted in the present invention is:
Based on a hydropower station basin areal rainfall meteorology forecast for GIS subarea, it is characterized in that: comprise the following steps,
Step (1), utilizes GIS, to conflux situation and rainfall Climatic Background Analysis, determine Area Precipitation Forecast scope and subregion according to step power station distribution situation each in basin, river, power station;
Step (2), obtain five kinds of pre-man who brings news of appointment's products by LAN (Local Area Network), five kinds of pre-man who brings news of appointment's products comprise observatory's rainfall amount forecast, basin heavy showers forecast, neural network 89 website rainfall forcasting, European ECMWF refined net numerical value rainfall forcasting and Japanese numerical value rainfall forcasting;
Step (3), for observatory's rainfall amount forecast and neural network 89 website rainfall forcasting product, use Thiessen polygon method of interpolation, the rainfall value of meteorological site all in each basin is interpolated in corresponding basin, obtains the first surface rainfall forcasting value in each basin respectively; For European ECMWF refined net numerical value rainfall forcasting and Japanese numerical value rainfall forcasting, by lattice point rainfall summation contained in each basin divided by lattice point number contained in each basin, obtain the second Area Precipitation Forecast value in each basin respectively;
Step (4), combines first, second Area Precipitation Forecast value in each basin and basin heavy showers forecast, is divided into seven magnitudes to the Area Precipitation Forecast amount in each basin;
Step (5), by fuzzy synthesis evaluate formula (1), calculates history scoring Mp (i) in front n days of each basin in each pre-man who brings news of appointment's product respectively,
formula (1)
Wherein, p is 1,2,3,4,5, is the numbering of five pre-man who brings news of appointment's products; I gets 1,2,3,4 ... m, m are the quantity in basin; Forecast basis is divided into 60 points; F
i, O
ibe respectively the Area Precipitation Forecast magnitude of front n days of corresponding basin and live magnitude; Max (F
i-O
i) be the maximal term in the Area Precipitation Forecast magnitude of front n days in corresponding basin and live magnitude, when Area Precipitation Forecast magnitude is consistent with live magnitude, forecast score is 100; When forecast magnitude wrong poor time, by error size give point, error is larger, and score value is lower, and on the contrary, error is less, and score value is higher;
Step (6), utilizes history scoring Mp (i) of method for normalizing treatment step (5), obtains forecast skill weight coefficient Wp (i) of five pre-man who brings news of appointment's products;
Step (7), sets up the integrative prediction equation of each magnitude of each pre-man who brings news of appointment's product, Y
kfor the integrative prediction result of the forecast areal rainfall of corresponding magnitude, as formula (2),
formula (2)
Wherein, k=1,2 ..., 7, be seven magnitudes that step (4) divides; I gets 1,2,3,4 ... m, m are total number of precipitation forecast product; X
pikbe that five pre-man who brings news of appointment's products are respectively to the classification precipitation forecast in each basin; P
pikbe that 5 five pre-man who brings news of appointment's products are respectively to the probable value of the Precipitation in each basin;
Step (8), the calculating of the final forecast areal rainfall in each basin, will finally forecast that areal rainfall transfers to power department database, and by web network, realizes the website orientation of weather information and browse.
The aforesaid hydropower station basin areal rainfall meteorology forecast based on GIS subarea, is characterized in that: the computing method of the final forecast areal rainfall in step (8) each basin are,
(1) the integrative prediction result of the forecast areal rainfall of the corresponding magnitude in each basin calculated according to step (7), when each basin only has the Precipitation of pre-man who brings news of appointment's product and integrative prediction to come to the same thing, get the forecast numerical value of this sub-forecast model products as finally forecasting areal rainfall;
(2) when each basin has the Precipitation of two or more pre-man who brings news of appointment's products and integrative prediction to come to the same thing, utilize gray prediction method to determine and finally forecast areal rainfall, set up grey forecasting model, integrative prediction result substitution grey forecasting model will be met calculate, finally be forecast areal rainfall.
The aforesaid hydropower station basin areal rainfall meteorology forecast based on GIS subarea, is characterized in that: described grey forecasting model of setting up only makes one-accumulate generating process for adopting static h unit grey forecasting model to integrative prediction result, and the value of h is 2,3,4 or 5.
The invention has the beneficial effects as follows: the hydropower station basin areal rainfall meteorology forecast based on GIS subarea of the present invention, first be have chosen on the basis of the higher rainfall amount forecast model products of forecast precision, then it is optimized integrated, form integrated forecast model products, each Valleys ' Area Precipitation in administrative area is forecast, achieve Computer systems, automatic data acquisition, unified forecast is carried out in electrical network and regional all power stations, forecast precision is high, the access facility of data is realized by database link, by web network, realize the website orientation of weather information and browse, for electrical production and power scheduling provide scientific basis, have a good application prospect.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the process flow diagram of the hydropower station basin areal rainfall meteorology forecast based on GIS subarea of the present invention.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with Figure of description, the present invention is further illustrated.
As shown in Figure 1, based on the hydropower station basin areal rainfall meteorology forecast of GIS subarea, comprise the following steps,
Step (1), utilizes GIS, to conflux situation and rainfall Climatic Background Analysis, determine Area Precipitation Forecast scope and subregion according to step power station distribution situation each in basin, river, power station;
Step (2), receive five kinds of pre-man who brings news of appointment's products by LAN (Local Area Network), five kinds of pre-man who brings news of appointment's products comprise observatory's rainfall amount forecast, basin heavy showers forecast, Guangxi neural network 89 website rainfall forcasting, European ECMWF refined net numerical value rainfall forcasting and Japanese numerical value rainfall forcasting; Rain Location Prediction data when observatory precipitation forecast adopts observatory every day 14, the relevant weather station every day 08 time fine forecast product information as Subjective forecast data, be divided in each basin according to basin distribution range; Basin heavy showers forecast utilizes 1988-2008 91 meteorological station Daily rainfall data, ECMWF numerical forecasting product data day by day, find out the sky Aerodynamic Model causing the heavy showers of basin, Guangxi, and relevant predictor, forecast system is according to these factors, utilize successive Regression equation, the event analyst estimation technique etc., set up the Area Precipitation Forecast equation of various pattern, thus obtain the Area Precipitation Forecast product of basin, Guangxi heavy showers; Numerical forecasting comprises Japanese numerical forecasting, German numerical forecasting and T639 numerical forecasting, data twice on the one (when 08 and 20 time), 12 hours, forecast interval, Time effect forecast 24-144 hour;
Step (3), for observatory's rainfall amount forecast and neural network 89 website rainfall forcasting product, use Thiessen polygon method of interpolation, the rainfall value of meteorological site all in each basin is interpolated in corresponding basin, obtains the first surface rainfall forcasting value in each basin respectively; For European ECMWF refined net numerical value rainfall forcasting and Japanese numerical value rainfall forcasting, by lattice point rainfall summation contained in each basin divided by lattice point number contained in each basin, obtain the second Area Precipitation Forecast value in each basin respectively;
Step (4), first, second face forecast rainfall in each basin and basin heavy showers are forecast that (basin heavy showers forecast Output rusults is Area Precipitation Forecast data, do not need to change) combine, seven magnitudes are divided into the Area Precipitation Forecast amount in each basin, the reference of areal rainfall standard be 2006 implement " river basin areal rainfall grade " (GB/T20486-2006), define according to 24 hourly rainfall depths (R24): without rain, R24 is 0mm; Light rain, R24 is 0.1 ~ 5.9mm; Moderate rain, R24 is 6.0 ~ 14.9mm; Heavy rain, R24 is 15.0 ~ 29.9mm; Heavy rain, R24 is 30.0 ~ 59.9mm; Torrential rain, R24 is 60.0 ~ 150.0mm; Extra torrential rain, R24 > 150.0mm;
Step (5), by fuzzy synthesis evaluate formula (1), calculates history scoring Mp (i) in front n days of each basin in each pre-man who brings news of appointment's product respectively,
formula (1)
Wherein, p is 1,2,4,5, is the numbering of five pre-man who brings news of appointment's products; I gets 1,2,3,4 ... m, m are the quantity in basin; Forecast basis is divided into 60 points; F
i, O
ibe respectively the Area Precipitation Forecast magnitude of front n days of corresponding basin and live magnitude; Max (F
i-O
i) be the maximal term in the Area Precipitation Forecast magnitude of front n days in corresponding basin and live magnitude, when Area Precipitation Forecast magnitude is consistent with live magnitude, forecast score is 100; When forecast magnitude wrong poor time, by error size give point, error is larger, and score value is lower, and on the contrary, error is less, and score value is higher;
Step (6), utilizes history scoring Mp (i) of method for normalizing treatment step (5), obtains forecast skill weight coefficient Wp (i) of five pre-man who brings news of appointment's products;
Step (7), sets up the integrative prediction equation of each magnitude of each pre-man who brings news of appointment's product, Y
kfor the integrative prediction result of the forecast areal rainfall of corresponding magnitude, as formula (2),
formula (2)
Wherein, k=1,2 ..., 7, be seven magnitudes that step (4) divides; I gets 1,2,3,4 ... m, m are total number of precipitation forecast product; X
pikbe that five pre-man who brings news of appointment's products are respectively to the classification precipitation forecast in each basin; P
pikbe that 5 five pre-man who brings news of appointment's products are respectively to the probable value of the Precipitation in each basin;
Step (8), the calculating of the final forecast areal rainfall in each basin, the integrative prediction result of the forecast areal rainfall of the corresponding magnitude in each basin calculated according to step (7), when each basin only has the Precipitation of pre-man who brings news of appointment's product and integrative prediction to come to the same thing, get the forecast numerical value of this sub-forecast model products as finally forecasting areal rainfall; When each basin has the Precipitation of two or more pre-man who brings news of appointment's products and integrative prediction to come to the same thing, utilize gray prediction method to determine and finally forecast areal rainfall, set up grey forecasting model, integrative prediction result substitution grey forecasting model will be met calculate, finally forecast areal rainfall, described grey forecasting model of setting up only makes one-accumulate generating process for adopting static h unit grey forecasting model to integrative prediction result, and the value of h is 2,3,4 or 5; To finally forecast that areal rainfall transfers to power department database, and by web network, realize the website orientation of weather information and browse.
Below according to the hydropower station basin areal rainfall meteorology forecast based on GIS subarea of the present invention, forecasting process is as follows,
(1) first survey region is positioned at Guangxi, Guizhou, the Xijiang River in Yunnan Province (district), first GIS technology is utilized, according to each step power station distribution situation, river, power station confluxes situation and rainfall Climatic Background Analysis, determine Area Precipitation Forecast scope and subregion, according to Guangxi Power Grid Corp.'s power scheduling control center Production requirement and tracking power station distribution situation thereof, determine power station Valleys ' Area Precipitation forecast scope, survey region is positioned at Guangxi, Guizhou, the Xijiang River in Yunnan Province (district), use 1:25 ten thousand Fundamental Geographic Information Data, in GIS platform, distribute according to water power website, tentatively Xijiang River is carried out large watershed subregion, form basic river basins distribution plan, the large watershed of Preliminary division has Hongsuihe River, Yu Jiang basin, Liujiang basin, Xijiang River, basin, Guijiang river basin Deng great district, on the basis of large watershed subregion, to conflux situation and rainfall Climatic Background Analysis according to river, power station again, determine power station Area Precipitation Forecast small watershed, be divided into 23 small watersheds altogether,
(2) five kinds of pre-man who brings news of appointment's products are collected by LAN (Local Area Network), five kinds of pre-man who brings news of appointment's products comprise observatory's rainfall amount forecast, basin heavy showers forecast, Guangxi neural network 89 website rainfall forcasting, European ECMWF refined net numerical value rainfall forcasting and Japanese numerical value rainfall forcasting, and each sub-forecast model products brief introduction is as follows:
Observatory's rainfall amount forecast, it is whole district's rainfall occurring area forecast that Guangxi observatory makes, contain the forecast experience that forecaster enriches, in recent years, the moderate rain forecast accuracy at 24 hours single stations is 47%, heavy rain forecast accuracy is 28%, and Rainstorm Forecast accuracy rate is 15%, has good reference role to Area Precipitation Forecast;
Basin heavy showers forecast: be 2009 Guangxi weather bureau scientific research task project " basin, Guangxi heavy showers prediction research " achievement in research, first 1988-2008 91 meteorological station Daily rainfall data are adopted, ECMWF is numerical forecasting product data day by day, find out the sky Aerodynamic Model causing the heavy showers of basin, Guangxi, and relevant predictor, then successive Regression equation is utilized, the methods such as the event analyst estimation technique, set up basin heavy rain above areal rainfall probability forecast equation, thus obtain the areal rainfall probability forecast product of basin, Guangxi heavy showers, in recent years, in 3 days, the interval heavy rain in full basin above areal rainfall Process Forecasting accuracy rate is greater than 70%, there is higher reference value,
Guangxi neural network 89 website rainfall forcasting: utilize the data such as ECMWF numerical forecasting product, live physical quantity, adopt Artificial Neural Network, set up the rainfall forcasting equation of each meteorological site, thus obtaining 89, Guangxi meteorological site rainfall forcasting product, the forecast accuracy of this product is higher, in recent years, the moderate rain forecast accuracy at 24 hours single stations is 45%, heavy rain forecast accuracy is 27%, and Rainstorm Forecast accuracy rate is 18%, has higher reference value;
European ECMWF refined net numerical forecasting: be the meteorological numerical forecasting product data provided by European Union's meteorological organization that China Meteorological Administration issues, for gridden data, its precision is 0.25 ° × 0.25 °, in recent years, the moderate rain forecast accuracy at this product 24 hours single stations is 50%, heavy rain forecast accuracy is 23%, and Rainstorm Forecast accuracy rate is 15%, has higher reference value;
Japan's numerical forecasting: be the numerical forecasting product data provided by Japan Meteorological Agency that China Meteorological Administration issues, for gridden data, its precision is 1.25 ° × 1.25 °, in recent years, the moderate rain forecast accuracy at this product 24 hours single stations is 44%, heavy rain forecast accuracy is 29%, and Rainstorm Forecast accuracy rate is 13%, has higher reference value;
(3) for observatory's rainfall amount forecast and Guangxi neural network 89 website rainfall forcasting product, use Thiessen polygon method of interpolation, the rainfall value of meteorological site all in each basin is interpolated in corresponding basin, obtains the Area Precipitation Forecast value in each basin respectively; For European ECMWF refined net numerical value rainfall forcasting and Japanese numerical value rainfall forcasting, by lattice point rainfall summation contained in each basin divided by lattice point number contained in each basin, obtain the Area Precipitation Forecast value in each basin respectively; Basin heavy showers forecast Output rusults is Area Precipitation Forecast data, does not need to change.
(4) " river basin areal rainfall grade " (GB/T20486-2006) that implemented according to 2006 carries out grade classification to each Valleys ' Area Precipitation.Define according to 24 hourly rainfall depths (R24):
Without rain, R
24for 0mm;
Light rain, R
24be 0.1 ~ 5.9mm;
Moderate rain, R
24be 6.0 ~ 14.9mm;
Heavy rain, R
24be 15.0 ~ 29.9mm;
Heavy rain, R
24be 30.0 ~ 59.9mm;
Torrential rain, R
24be 60.0 ~ 150.0mm;
Extra torrential rain, R
24> 150.0mm;
(5) according to the grade of (4), history scoring Mp (i) in front n days of each basin in each pre-man who brings news of appointment's product is calculated respectively,
formula (1)
Wherein ,-p is 1,2,3,4,5, is the numbering of five pre-man who brings news of appointment's products; I gets 1,2,3,4 ... m, m are the quantity in basin; Forecast basis is divided into 60 points; F
i, O
ibe respectively the Area Precipitation Forecast magnitude of front n days of corresponding basin and live magnitude; Max (F
i-O
i) be the maximal term in the Area Precipitation Forecast magnitude of front n days in corresponding basin and live magnitude, when Area Precipitation Forecast magnitude is consistent with live magnitude, forecast score is 100; When forecast magnitude wrong poor time, by error size give point, error is larger, and score value is lower, and on the contrary, error is less, and score value is higher;
(6), utilize history scoring Mp (i) of method for normalizing process (5), obtain forecast skill weight coefficient Wp (i) of five pre-man who brings news of appointment's products;
(7), the integrative prediction equation of each magnitude of each pre-man who brings news of appointment's product is set up, Y
kfor the integrative prediction result of the forecast areal rainfall of corresponding magnitude, as formula (2),
formula (2)
Wherein, k=1,2 ..., 7, be seven magnitudes that (3) divide; I gets 1,2,3,4 ... m, m are the kind of precipitation forecast product; X
pikbe that five pre-man who brings news of appointment's products are respectively to the classification precipitation forecast in each basin; P
pikbe that five pre-man who brings news of appointment's products are respectively to the probable value of the Precipitation in each basin;
(8), each basin is finally forecast the forecast result of areal rainfall, transfer to Guangxi province power department database, and by web network, realize the website orientation of weather information and browse.
In sum, hydropower station basin areal rainfall meteorology forecast based on GIS subarea of the present invention, on the basis of observatory's forecast model products and numerical forecasting product, the areal rainfall in each basin in administrative area is forecast, achieve Computer systems, automatic data acquisition, unified forecast is carried out in electrical network and regional all power stations, forecast precision is high, the access facility of data is realized by database link, by web network, realize the website orientation of weather information and browse, for electrical production and power scheduling provide scientific basis, have a good application prospect.
More than show and describe ultimate principle of the present invention, principal character and advantage.The technician of the industry should understand; the present invention is not restricted to the described embodiments; what describe in above-described embodiment and instructions just illustrates principle of the present invention; without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention; the present invention also has various changes and modifications, and these changes and improvements all fall in the claimed scope of the invention.Application claims protection domain is defined by appending claims and equivalent thereof.
Claims (3)
1. based on the hydropower station basin areal rainfall meteorology forecast of GIS subarea, it is characterized in that: comprise the following steps,
Step (1), utilizes GIS, to conflux situation and rainfall Climatic Background Analysis, determine Area Precipitation Forecast scope and subregion according to step power station distribution situation each in basin, river, power station;
Step (2), obtain five kinds of pre-man who brings news of appointment's products by LAN (Local Area Network), five kinds of pre-man who brings news of appointment's products comprise observatory's rainfall amount forecast, basin heavy showers forecast, neural network 89 website rainfall forcasting, European ECMWF refined net numerical value rainfall forcasting and Japanese numerical value rainfall forcasting;
Step (3), for observatory's rainfall amount forecast and neural network 89 website rainfall forcasting product, use Thiessen polygon method of interpolation, the rainfall value of meteorological site all in each basin is interpolated in corresponding basin, obtains the first surface rainfall forcasting value in each basin respectively; For European ECMWF refined net numerical value rainfall forcasting and Japanese numerical value rainfall forcasting, by lattice point rainfall summation contained in each basin divided by lattice point number contained in each basin, obtain the second Area Precipitation Forecast value in each basin respectively;
Step (4), combines first, second Area Precipitation Forecast value in each basin and basin heavy showers forecast, is divided into seven magnitudes to the Area Precipitation Forecast value in each basin;
Step (5), by fuzzy synthesis evaluate formula (1), calculates history scoring Mp (i) in front n days of each basin in each pre-man who brings news of appointment's product respectively,
Wherein, p is 1,2,3,4,5, is the numbering of five pre-man who brings news of appointment's products; I gets 1,2,3,4 ... m, m are the quantity in basin; Forecast basis is divided into 60 points; F
i, O
ibe respectively the Area Precipitation Forecast magnitude of front n days of corresponding basin and live magnitude; Max (F
i-O
i) be the maximal term in the Area Precipitation Forecast magnitude of front n days in corresponding basin and live magnitude, when Area Precipitation Forecast magnitude is consistent with live magnitude, forecast score is 100; When forecast magnitude wrong poor time, by error size give point, error is larger, and score value is lower, and on the contrary, error is less, and score value is higher;
Step (6), utilizes history scoring Mp (i) of method for normalizing treatment step (5), obtains forecast skill weight coefficient Wp (i) of five pre-man who brings news of appointment's products;
Step (7), sets up the integrative prediction equation of each magnitude of each pre-man who brings news of appointment's product, Y
kfor the integrative prediction result of the forecast areal rainfall of corresponding magnitude, as formula (2),
Wherein, k=1,2 ..., 7, be seven magnitudes that step (4) divides; I gets 1,2,3,4 ... m, m are total number of precipitation forecast product; X
pikbe that five pre-man who brings news of appointment's products are respectively to the classification precipitation forecast in each basin; P
pikbe that 5 five pre-man who brings news of appointment's products are respectively to the probable value of the Precipitation in each basin;
Step (8), the calculating of the final forecast areal rainfall in each basin, will finally forecast that areal rainfall transfers to power department database, and by web network, realizes the website orientation of weather information and browse.
2. the hydropower station basin areal rainfall meteorology forecast based on GIS subarea according to claim 1, is characterized in that: the computing method of the final forecast areal rainfall in step (8) each basin are,
(1) the integrative prediction result of the forecast areal rainfall of the corresponding magnitude in each basin calculated according to step (7), when each basin only has the Precipitation of pre-man who brings news of appointment's product and integrative prediction to come to the same thing, get the forecast numerical value of this sub-forecast model products as finally forecasting areal rainfall;
(2) when each basin has the Precipitation of two or more pre-man who brings news of appointment's products and integrative prediction to come to the same thing, utilize gray prediction method to determine and finally forecast areal rainfall, set up grey forecasting model, integrative prediction result substitution grey forecasting model will be met calculate, finally be forecast areal rainfall.
3. the hydropower station basin areal rainfall meteorology forecast based on GIS subarea according to claim 2, it is characterized in that: described grey forecasting model of setting up only makes one-accumulate generating process for adopting static h unit grey forecasting model to integrative prediction result, and the value of h is 2,3,4 or 5.
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| CN101694680A (en) * | 2009-09-28 | 2010-04-14 | 深圳先进技术研究院 | Simulating and predicting method of urban storm flood |
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| KR20130080683A (en) * | 2012-01-05 | 2013-07-15 | 부경대학교 산학협력단 | Method and system for predicting detailed rainfall using quantitative precipitation model |
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