CN107545329A - A kind of Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface forecasting procedure and application - Google Patents
A kind of Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface forecasting procedure and application Download PDFInfo
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- CN107545329A CN107545329A CN201710780658.2A CN201710780658A CN107545329A CN 107545329 A CN107545329 A CN 107545329A CN 201710780658 A CN201710780658 A CN 201710780658A CN 107545329 A CN107545329 A CN 107545329A
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface forecasting procedure and application, comprise the following steps：A, investigation measurement determines debris flow body and ramp slope α and debris flow body area A, top gradient β and the top area A of mud-rock flow does not occuru, horizontal left side gradient θ1, horizontal right side gradient θ2, horizontal left side area AL, horizontal right side area ARAnd whether have free face, determine the average annual rainfall R of respondent0, 1h rainfall coefficients of variation CV, rainfall B is measured in real time, excites hourly rainfall depth I；B, using predictor P as monitor value, calculated by formula 1 and determine predictor P；C, Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface possibility occurrence grade is divided according to monitor value size.The present invention has taken into full account the effect of the landform, two big factor of rainfall that trigger Debris Flow on Slope Surface and its influenced each other, and data are observed without a large amount of history, can make most fast early warning reaction, greatly improve applicability of taking precautions against natural calamities.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to debris flow control works field, more particularly to a kind of Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface forecasting procedure
And application.
Background technology
Based on Red Bed is made up of the interaction such as verrucano, glutenite, siltstone, arenaceous shale and mud stone, belongs to typical layer
Shape rock mass.The Debris Flow on Slope Surface in general thickness of Based on Red Bed is all generally higher than 20 ° in 1 millimeter, such ramp slope, slope
Table has certain thickness soil layer, and under intense rainfall condition, rainwater penetrates into slope surface, and the soil body is total to self gravitation and scouring force
Unstability under same-action, mud-rock flow is mixed to form with water.
Application No. 201510036831.9, the applying date are that the Chinese patent literature of on 01 23rd, 2015 discloses one kind
Debris Flow Forecast method, it is characterised in that：Comprise the following steps：Step 1, mud-rock flow monitoring field is drilled, measures energy
Surface area, the depth of the material resource of displacement are enough produced, calculates material resource volume, the angle of gradient of massif and mud-rock flow can where measurement material resource
What can be advanced gushes domatic inclination angle, material resource is sampled, measuring material resource angle of friction；Step 2, mud-rock flow is being met
The monitoring field of occurrence condition sets hardware net monitoring system, sets rain sensor in domatic or top of the slope, is bored in material resource
Mesh in length and breadth, the mesh shape are embedded with infrasonic wave generator and/or electromagnetic wave occur into stereoscopic grid in each hole
Device；Step 3, the data acquisition of mud-rock flow monitoring field and transmission：Rainfall gauge real-time on-site records raininess, rainfall in domatic, with
Electrical signal form remote transmission is to software network decision-making system；Infrasonic wave generator is after by domatic interior material resource displacement compressing, by thing
After infrasound amplification caused by the displacement of source, remote transmission is carried out, and/or electromagnetic wave generator is oppressed by domatic interior material resource displacement
Afterwards, piezoelectric produces electricity, produces electromagnetic wave, is transmitted by satellite or communication base station；Step 4, software network decision-making system
After the data for receiving the transmission of mud-rock flow monitoring field, calculated, and combine the following rainfall letter in weather forecast data
Breath, and analyzed compared with alert threshold, forecast information is then sent by forecast system when meeting forecast condition.
Application No. 201210193426.4, the applying date are that the Chinese patent literature of on 06 13rd, 2012 discloses one kind
Debris Flow Forecast method based on basin water-soil coupling, it is characterised in that：According to the mixture after the coupling of forecast district basin water-soil
Unit weight ρ values determine basin mud-rock flow probability of happening under forecast condition of raining；Basin mud under forecast condition of raining is determined further according to table 1
Rock glacier probability of happening section：The mixture unit weight of table 1-mud-rock flow probability of happening and debris flow early-warning hierarchical relationship, when mud-rock flow is sent out
When raw probability is more than 20%, the probability interval occurred according to mud-rock flow issues corresponding debris flow early-warning grade.
Application No. 201610137286.7, the applying date are that the Chinese patent literature of on 03 10th, 2016 discloses one kind
Based on Red Bed landslide method for early warning and its application, it is characterised in that：Using Based on Red Bed slip mass and non-slip mass as investigation pair
As gradient α, landslide bulk area A, top gradient β, the top area A of measurement slip mass and non-slip massu, left side cross fall
Spend θ1, right side cross fall θ2, left side horizontal area AL, right side horizontal area ARWith the terraced fields area A' on slip mass；Calculate
Slope factor S, upper side factor U and both sides factor C, contrasted by orographic condition and determine free face factor F；Calculate terrain factor
T, equivalent rainfall R*, rainfall factor R and critical value to slide Cr, it is determined that landslide grade, sends pre-warning signal.
Application No. 201610136281.2, the applying date are that the Chinese patent literature of on 03 10th, 2016 discloses one kind
Based on Red Bed shallow-layer landslide o earth slope method for early warning, it is characterised in that：Using Based on Red Bed slip mass and non-slip mass as investigation pair
As gradient α, landslide bulk area A, top gradient β, the top area A of measurement slip mass and non-slip massu, laterally left side the gradient
θ1, horizontal right side gradient θ2, horizontal left side area AL, horizontal right side area ARWith the terraced fields area A' on slip mass；Calculate the gradient
Factor S, upper side factor U, both sides factor C, terrain factor T, rainfall factor R, calculate Based on Red Bed and induce shallow-layer landslide o earth slope
Critical value Cr and carry out condition distinguishing, it is determined that landslide grade, send pre-warning signal.
Application No. 201610573522.X, the applying date are that the Chinese patent literature of on 07 19th, 2016 discloses one kind
The forecasting procedure of superficial layer landslide o earth slope, it is characterised in that：Measure superficial layer landslide o earth slope body gradient α, landslide bulk area A, cunning
Gradient β, landslide upside area A on the upside of slopeLu, landform unduation grade θ on the left of slip mass1, hypsography gradient θ on the right side of slip mass2、
Landform area A on the left of slip massLWith landform area A on the right side of slip massR；Calculate slope factor S, upper slow factor U, both sides landform because
Sub- C；Superficial layer landslide o earth slope terrain factor T；Hydrology factor R；Calculate clay index N；In-site measurement firmness coefficient F, calculating are oozed
Saturating index K；Ground prime factor G；It is determined that inducing superficial layer landslide o earth slope possibility grade, slide prediction is carried out.
Prior art using above-mentioned patent document as representative, although orographic condition, drop both for shallow-layer landslide o earth slope
Rain condition, geological conditions, but the computational methods of orographic condition are not quite similar, and orographic condition is also different from the relation of condition of raining；
Area and the difference of landslide thickness, mechanism also differ, therefore ripe not enough in the method for research Debris Flow on Slope Surface at present, in advance
Report the degree of accuracy relatively low, forecast has hysteresis quality, can't be advantageously applied to the Debris Flow on Slope Surface forecast of Based on Red Bed.
The content of the invention
The present invention in order to overcome above-mentioned prior art the defects of, there is provided a kind of Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface forecasting procedure and
Using the present invention has taken into full account the effect of the landform, two big factor of rainfall that trigger Debris Flow on Slope Surface and its influenced each other, and calculates
As a result more meet the mechanism for inducing Debris Flow on Slope Surface, data are observed without a large amount of history, most fast early warning reaction can be made, together
When with very high accuracy, greatly improve applicability of taking precautions against natural calamities.
The present invention is achieved through the following technical solutions：
A kind of Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface forecasting procedure, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps：
A, the Debris Flow on Slope Surface and surrounding occurred with Based on Red Bed is advantageous to occur but without generation in landform
Slope is respondent, investigation measurement determine debris flow body and do not occur mud-rock flow ramp slope α and debris flow body area A,
Top gradient β and top area Au, horizontal left side gradient θ1, horizontal right side gradient θ2, horizontal left side area AL, horizontal right flank
Product ARAnd whether have free face, consult the average annual rainfall R that hydrologic manual determines respondent0, 1h rainfall coefficients of variation CV,
Rainfall gauge is arranged, rainfall B is measured in real time, excites hourly rainfall depth I；
B, using predictor P as monitor value, calculated by formula 1 and determine predictor P；
P=R*(S+1.8U+0.8C+F)1.5/(R0Cv) >=Cr formulas 1
In formula：
Cr --- Based on Red Bed induces the critical value of Debris Flow on Slope Surface, and different Based on Red Bed critical values are different, with geology bar
Part is relevant；
S --- slope factor, is the main dynamics factors of mud-rock flow, and the gradient determines between 0-30 ° according to formula 2；
U --- the upper side factor, due to the effect of rainfall infiltration, water source, gentle slope, larger charge for remittance are provided for debris flow formation
Area is more beneficial for mud-rock flow, is determined according to formula 3；
C --- the both sides factor, horizontal intermediate recess landform are advantageous to collecting for water source, therefore have when there is cross fall both sides
Beneficial to the development of Debris Flow on Slope Surface, determined according to formula 4；
F --- the free face factor, obtained by the comparative study of orographic condition, there is free face F=0.13, no free face F
=0；
R*--- equivalent rainfall, refer to the synthesis interception rainfall index for combining rainfall and hourly rainfall depth, it is true according to formula 5
It is fixed；
R0--- average annual rainfall, inquire about local hydrologic manual and determine；
CV--- 1h rainfall coefficients of variation, inquire about local hydrologic manual and determine；
S=tan α formulas 2
R*=(B+5.5I) formulas 5；
C, Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface possibility occurrence grade is divided according to monitor value size；When P ＜ 0.34, possibility
Very little, send green safe signal；As 0.34≤P ＜ 0.46, possibility is medium, sends orange warning signal；When P >=0.46,
Possibility is big, sends red early warning signal.
The present invention, it is domatic suitable for debris flow body and the Based on Red Bed for 0 °≤α≤30 ° of ramp slope that mud-rock flow does not occur
The forecast of mud-rock flow.
The present invention, suitable for the forecast of the Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface of 0 °≤β≤60 ° of the top gradient.
The present invention, the thickness of Debris Flow on Slope Surface is within 2m.
The general principle of the present invention is as follows：
Under the premise of identical geological conditions, Debris Flow on Slope Surface is mainly determined by orographic condition and condition of raining, two bars
Part is indispensable, and Debris Flow on Slope Surface is formed under collective effect.The present invention has taken into full account the comprehensive function of the two conditions, and will
The effect of two conditions unites to form the forecasting model of Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface, is studied through substantial amounts of field investigation,
Analysis determines for set Debris Flow on Slope Surface and for mud-rock flow does not occur, to draw the functional relation of orographic condition and condition of raining
Formula.
Beneficial effects of the present invention are mainly manifested in following aspect：
First, it is of the invention, trigger Debris Flow on Slope Surface for inducing the measuring and calculating of critical value of Debris Flow on Slope Surface and considering simultaneously
Landform, two big factor of rainfall effect and its influence each other, therefore results of measuring more meet induce Debris Flow on Slope Surface mechanism；Nothing
A large amount of history observation data are needed, most fast early warning reaction can be made, greatly improve applicability of taking precautions against natural calamities.Compared to application number
For patent for 201610137286.7,201610136281.2 and 201610573522.X, although all having used formula 2-5's
Parameter, but final forecasting model is different from formula 1：Application No. 201610137286.7 and 201610136281.2
For patent because being the shallow failure for forecasting Based on Red Bed, its thickness that comes down can reach 10m, hence it is evident that be different from 2m of the invention with
It is interior, therefore mechanism is different, is also differed with the computational methods of the combination of terrain factor S, U, C, F in formula 1, the top factor,
The effect of the side factor and the free face factor is different, and the effect of terrain factor is also different.Application No. 201610573522.X's
Patent research is superficial layer landslide, research range and suitable application region all in Guizhou Province Wangmo County, although terrain factor S, U,
C, F combination is identical, but the effect of terrain factor is different, and the index of terrain factor is 1.2, shows different regions
Different relations between rainfall and landform be present.The present invention passes through the domatic mudstone in substantial amounts of field investigation Sichuan Nan Jiang Based on Red Bed
The characteristics of stream is with after Chongqing Yunyang, Fengjie Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface, Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface has been restudied, research
The relation of rainfall and landform is drawn, the index for finding terrain factor is 1.5 Debris Flow on Slope Surface for being more suitable for Based on Red Bed.These
Field investigation work and research work are that the data that impossible gathered according to research area can just fit rainfall and landform
Dependency relation, but need creative research work just to draw.
2nd, it is of the invention, suitable for debris flow body and the Based on Red Bed for 0 °≤α≤30 ° of ramp slope that mud-rock flow does not occur
The forecast of Debris Flow on Slope Surface, by the ramp slope α for measuring debris flow body Yu mud-rock flow not occurring, and slope is calculated by formula 2
Spend factor S, be the main terrain factor that Debris Flow on Slope Surface is formed, when debris flow body and do not occur 0 ° of the ramp slope of mud-rock flow≤
During α≤30 °, it is easy to the stable and accurate warning grade for marking off Debris Flow on Slope Surface, improves Disaster Defense Capability.
3rd, it is of the invention, suitable for the forecast of the Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface of 0 °≤β≤60 ° of the top gradient, pass through measurement
Debris flow body and the ramp slope α and top gradient β that mud-rock flow does not occur, and upper side factor U is calculated by formula 3, by
In the effect of rainfall infiltration, water source is provided for Debris Flow on Slope Surface, upper side factor U is the secondary landform that Debris Flow on Slope Surface is formed
The factor, when 0 °≤β≤60 °, and combine debris flow body and the ramp slope α of mud-rock flow does not occur, can more accurately divide
The warning grade of Debris Flow on Slope Surface, improve the early warning quality of Debris Flow on Slope Surface.
4th, of the invention, by orographic condition and condition of raining, the effect of the two conditions, which is united, to be formed Based on Red Bed and lures
The forecasting model of Debris Flow on Slope Surface is sent out, by the predictor that the region is calculated under existing orographic condition and condition of raining
P simultaneously carries out condition distinguishing, most can judge soon induce Debris Flow on Slope Surface possibility size region, compared with prior art for
Only for condition of raining consideration, not only the degree of accuracy is higher, and can make most fast reaction for the early warning of Debris Flow on Slope Surface,
Early warning high sensitivity, strong applicability of taking precautions against natural calamities.
5th, it is of the invention, condition distinguishing is carried out by the predictor P that will be calculated, determines the grade of Debris Flow on Slope Surface,
And send corresponding pre-warning signal；As predictor P ＜ 0.34, possibility is low, sends green safe signal；When forecast because
0.34≤P of son ＜ 0.46, possibility is medium, sends orange warning signal；When predictor P >=0.46, possibility is high, sends red
Color pre-warning signal, early warning effect ocular and clear, early warning fineness is high, greatly improves applicability of taking precautions against natural calamities.
6th, of the invention, slope factor S is the main dynamics factors of Debris Flow on Slope Surface, and U is due to rainfall infiltration for the upper side factor
Effect, provide water source for Debris Flow on Slope Surface, can promote gentle slope formed Debris Flow on Slope Surface；By be calculated respectively the gradient because
Sub- S, upper side factor U, both sides factor C, free face factor F, and the terrain factor and the rainfall factor of composition, and then draw
Predictor P, which more meets, induces Debris Flow on Slope Surface mechanism, has ensured Debris Flow on Slope Surface early warning reliability, has improved Debris Flow on Slope Surface
Early warning quality and effect.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 attach most importance to Qingyun sun, Fengjie Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface prog chart；
Fig. 2 is Nanjiang County of Sichuan Province Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface prog chart；
Wherein：R is the rainfall factor, and T is terrain factor, and P is predictor.
Embodiment
Embodiment 1
A kind of Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface forecasting procedure, comprises the following steps：
A, the Debris Flow on Slope Surface and surrounding occurred with Based on Red Bed is advantageous to occur but without generation in landform
Slope is respondent, investigation measurement determine debris flow body and do not occur mud-rock flow ramp slope α and debris flow body area A,
Top gradient β and top area Au, horizontal left side gradient θ1, horizontal right side gradient θ2, horizontal left side area AL, horizontal right flank
Product ARAnd whether have free face, consult the average annual rainfall R that hydrologic manual determines respondent0, 1h rainfall coefficients of variation CV,
Rainfall gauge is arranged, rainfall B is measured in real time, excites hourly rainfall depth I；
B, using predictor P as monitor value, calculated by formula 1 and determine predictor P；
P=R*(S+1.8U+0.8C+F)1.5/(R0Cv) >=Cr formulas 1
In formula：
Cr --- Based on Red Bed induces the critical value of Debris Flow on Slope Surface, and different Based on Red Bed critical values are different, with geology bar
Part is relevant；
S --- slope factor, is the main dynamics factors of mud-rock flow, and the gradient determines between 0-30 ° according to formula 2；
U --- the upper side factor, due to the effect of rainfall infiltration, water source, gentle slope, larger charge for remittance are provided for debris flow formation
Area is more beneficial for mud-rock flow, is determined according to formula 3；
C --- the both sides factor, horizontal intermediate recess landform are advantageous to collecting for water source, therefore have when there is cross fall both sides
Beneficial to the development of Debris Flow on Slope Surface, determined according to formula 4；
F --- the free face factor, obtain (having free face F=0.13, no free face F by the comparative study of orographic condition
=0)；
R*--- equivalent rainfall, refer to the synthesis interception rainfall index for combining rainfall and hourly rainfall depth, it is true according to formula 5
It is fixed；
R0--- average annual rainfall, inquire about local hydrologic manual and determine；
CV--- 1h rainfall coefficients of variation, inquire about local hydrologic manual and determine；
S=tan α formulas 2
R*=(B+5.5I) formulas 5；
C, Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface possibility occurrence grade is divided according to monitor value size；When P ＜ 0.34, possibility
Very little, send green safe signal；As 0.34≤P ＜ 0.46, possibility is medium, sends orange warning signal；When P >=0.46,
Possibility is big, sends red early warning signal.
The measuring and calculating of critical value for inducing Debris Flow on Slope Surface considers the landform for triggering Debris Flow on Slope Surface, rainfall two simultaneously
The effect of big factor and its influence each other, therefore results of measuring more meets the mechanism for inducing Debris Flow on Slope Surface；Without a large amount of history
Data are observed, most fast early warning reaction can be made, greatly improve applicability of taking precautions against natural calamities.Compared to Application No.
201610137286.7th, for 201610136281.2 and 201610573522.X patent, although all having used formula 2-5 ginseng
Number, but final forecasting model is different from formula 1：Application No. 201610137286.7 and 201610136281.2 it is special
For profit because being the shallow failure for forecasting Based on Red Bed, its thickness that comes down can reach 10m, hence it is evident that it is different within the 2m of the present invention,
Therefore mechanism is different, is also differed with the computational methods of the combination of terrain factor S, U, C, F in formula 1, the top factor, side
The effect of the factor and the free face factor is different, and the effect of terrain factor is also different.Application No. 201610573522.X patent
Research is superficial layer landslide, and research range and suitable application region are all in Guizhou Province Wangmo County, although terrain factor S, U, C, F
Combination is identical, but the effect of terrain factor is different, and the index of terrain factor is 1.2, shows the rainfall of different regions
Different relations between landform be present.The present invention by substantial amounts of field investigation Sichuan Nan Jiang Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface and
After Chongqing Yunyang, Fengjie Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface, the characteristics of having restudied Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface, research is drawn
Rainfall and the relation of landform, the index for finding terrain factor are 1.5 Debris Flow on Slope Surface for being more suitable for Based on Red Bed.These fields
Investigation work and research work are impossible according to the data that research area gathers, can just to fit rainfall related to landform
Relation, but need creative research work just to draw.
Embodiment 2
A kind of Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface forecasting procedure, comprises the following steps：
A, the Debris Flow on Slope Surface and surrounding occurred with Based on Red Bed is advantageous to occur but without generation in landform
Slope is respondent, investigation measurement determine debris flow body and do not occur mud-rock flow ramp slope α and debris flow body area A,
Top gradient β and top area Au, horizontal left side gradient θ1, horizontal right side gradient θ2, horizontal left side area AL, horizontal right flank
Product ARAnd whether have free face, consult the average annual rainfall R that hydrologic manual determines respondent0, 1h rainfall coefficients of variation CV,
Rainfall gauge is arranged, rainfall B is measured in real time, excites hourly rainfall depth I；
B, using predictor P as monitor value, calculated by formula 1 and determine predictor P；
P=R*(S+1.8U+0.8C+F)1.5/(R0Cv) >=Cr formulas 1
In formula：
Cr --- Based on Red Bed induces the critical value of Debris Flow on Slope Surface, and different Based on Red Bed critical values are different, with geology bar
Part is relevant；
S --- slope factor, is the main dynamics factors of mud-rock flow, and the gradient determines between 0-30 ° according to formula 2；
U --- the upper side factor, due to the effect of rainfall infiltration, water source, gentle slope, larger charge for remittance are provided for debris flow formation
Area is more beneficial for mud-rock flow, is determined according to formula 3；
C --- the both sides factor, horizontal intermediate recess landform are advantageous to collecting for water source, therefore have when there is cross fall both sides
Beneficial to the development of Debris Flow on Slope Surface, determined according to formula 4；
F --- the free face factor, obtain (having free face F=0.13, no free face F by the comparative study of orographic condition
=0)；
R*--- equivalent rainfall, refer to the synthesis interception rainfall index for combining rainfall and hourly rainfall depth, it is true according to formula 5
It is fixed；
R0--- average annual rainfall, inquire about local hydrologic manual and determine；
CV--- 1h rainfall coefficients of variation, inquire about local hydrologic manual and determine；
S=tan α formulas 2
R*=(B+5.5I) formulas 5；
C, Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface possibility occurrence grade is divided according to monitor value size；When P ＜ 0.34, possibility
Very little, send green safe signal；As 0.34≤P ＜ 0.46, possibility is medium, sends orange warning signal；When P >=0.46,
Possibility is big, sends red early warning signal.
Suitable for debris flow body and the Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface for 0 °≤α≤30 ° of ramp slope that mud-rock flow does not occur
Forecast.
By the ramp slope α for measuring debris flow body Yu mud-rock flow not occurring, and slope factor S is calculated by formula 2, is
The main terrain factor that Debris Flow on Slope Surface is formed, when 0 °≤α≤30 ° of ramp slope of mud-rock flow do not occur when debris flow body and,
It is easy to the stable and accurate warning grade for marking off Debris Flow on Slope Surface, improves Disaster Defense Capability.
Embodiment 3
A kind of Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface forecasting procedure, comprises the following steps：
A, the Debris Flow on Slope Surface and surrounding occurred with Based on Red Bed is advantageous to occur but without generation in landform
Slope is respondent, investigation measurement determine debris flow body and do not occur mud-rock flow ramp slope α and debris flow body area A,
Top gradient β and top area Au, horizontal left side gradient θ1, horizontal right side gradient θ2, horizontal left side area AL, horizontal right flank
Product ARAnd whether have free face, consult the average annual rainfall R that hydrologic manual determines respondent0, 1h rainfall coefficients of variation CV,
Rainfall gauge is arranged, rainfall B is measured in real time, excites hourly rainfall depth I；
B, using predictor P as monitor value, calculated by formula 1 and determine predictor P；
P=R*(S+1.8U+0.8C+F)1.5/(R0Cv) >=Cr formulas 1
In formula：
Cr --- Based on Red Bed induces the critical value of Debris Flow on Slope Surface, and different Based on Red Bed critical values are different, with geology bar
Part is relevant；
S --- slope factor, is the main dynamics factors of mud-rock flow, and the gradient determines between 0-30 ° according to formula 2；
U --- the upper side factor, due to the effect of rainfall infiltration, water source, gentle slope, larger charge for remittance are provided for debris flow formation
Area is more beneficial for mud-rock flow, is determined according to formula 3；
C --- the both sides factor, horizontal intermediate recess landform are advantageous to collecting for water source, therefore have when there is cross fall both sides
Beneficial to the development of Debris Flow on Slope Surface, determined according to formula 4；
F --- the free face factor, obtain (having free face F=0.13, no free face F by the comparative study of orographic condition
=0)；
R*--- equivalent rainfall, refer to the synthesis interception rainfall index for combining rainfall and hourly rainfall depth, it is true according to formula 5
It is fixed；
R0--- average annual rainfall, inquire about local hydrologic manual and determine；
CV--- 1h rainfall coefficients of variation, inquire about local hydrologic manual and determine；
S=tan α formulas 2
R*=(B+5.5I) formulas 5；
C, Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface possibility occurrence grade is divided according to monitor value size；When P ＜ 0.34, possibility
Very little, send green safe signal；As 0.34≤P ＜ 0.46, possibility is medium, sends orange warning signal；When P >=0.46,
Possibility is big, sends red early warning signal.
Suitable for debris flow body and the Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface for 0 °≤α≤30 ° of ramp slope that mud-rock flow does not occur
Forecast.
Suitable for the forecast of the Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface of 0 °≤β≤60 ° of the top gradient.
Suitable for the forecast of the Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface of 0 °≤β≤60 ° of the top gradient.
By measuring debris flow body and the ramp slope α and top gradient β of mud-rock flow not occurring, and calculated by formula 3
The upper side factor U drawn, due to the effect of rainfall infiltration, water source is provided for Debris Flow on Slope Surface, upper side factor U is domatic
The secondary terrain factor of debris flow formation, when 0 °≤β≤60 °, and combine debris flow body and the slope slope of mud-rock flow does not occur
α is spent, can more accurately divide the warning grade of Debris Flow on Slope Surface, improves the early warning quality of Debris Flow on Slope Surface.
Using the present invention respectively to Chongqing the Northeast and Nanjiang County of Sichuan Province Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface early warning point
Analysis：
The ground such as the Based on Red Bed Yunyang of the Chongqing the Northeast on the 1st of September in 2014, Fengjie occur substantial amounts of mass-sending landslide and
Mud-stone flow disaster.Domatic mudstone does not occur for 6 Debris Flow on Slope Surface by field investigation, thickness and surrounding 14 within 2m
That flows is domatic.Wherein 4 Debris Flow on Slope Surface points are in the range of P >=0.46, and 2 Debris Flow on Slope Surface o'clock are in 0.34≤P ＜ 0.46；
12 potential points that mud-rock flow does not occur are in P ＜ 0.34, and 2 potential points that mud-rock flow does not occur are in 0.34≤P ＜ 0.46.
The accuracy that the present invention predicts as can be seen here is very high.
Nanjiang County of Sichuan Province Based on Red Bed 16-18 days of in September, 2011 meet with heavy showers, the Sichuan by field research
Nanjiang County of province Based on Red Bed September in 2011 9 Debris Flow on Slope Surface occurred on the 18th, the thickness within 2m, and 17 in landform
On be advantageous to Debris Flow on Slope Surface but without occur Debris Flow on Slope Surface slope.Wherein 4 Debris Flow on Slope Surface points are in P >=0.46
Interior, 5 Debris Flow on Slope Surface o'clock are in 0.34≤P ＜ 0.46；11 potential points that mud-rock flow does not occur are in P ＜ 0.34, and 4 are not
The potential point of mud-rock flow occurs in 0.34≤P ＜ 0.46, only 2 potential points that mud-rock flow does not occur are in P >=0.46.
The result majority that the present invention predicts as can be seen here is all very accurate.
Claims (3)
1. a kind of Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface forecasting procedure, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps：
A, the Debris Flow on Slope Surface and surrounding occurred with Based on Red Bed is advantageous to occur but without the slope occurred in landform
For respondent, investigation measurement determines debris flow body and the ramp slope α that mud-rock flow does not occur and debris flow body area A, top
Gradient β and top area Au, horizontal left side gradient θ1, horizontal right side gradient θ2, horizontal left side area AL, horizontal right side area ARAnd
Whether there is free face, consult the average annual rainfall R that hydrologic manual determines respondent0, 1h rainfall coefficients of variation CV, arrange rain
Gauge, rainfall B is measured in real time, excites hourly rainfall depth I；
B, using predictor P as monitor value, calculated by formula 1 and determine predictor P；
P=R*(S+1.8U+0.8C+F)1.5/(R0Cv) >=Cr formulas 1
In formula：
Cr --- Based on Red Bed induces the critical value of Debris Flow on Slope Surface, and different Based on Red Bed critical values are different, have with geological conditions
Close；
S --- slope factor, is the main dynamics factors of mud-rock flow, and the gradient determines between 0-30 ° according to formula 2；
U --- the upper side factor, due to the effect of rainfall infiltration, water source, gentle slope, larger catchment area are provided for debris flow formation
Mud-rock flow is more beneficial for, is determined according to formula 3；
C --- the both sides factor, horizontal intermediate recess landform are advantageous to collecting for water source, therefore are advantageous to when there is cross fall both sides
The development of Debris Flow on Slope Surface, determined according to formula 4；
F --- the free face factor, obtained by the comparative study of orographic condition, there is free face F=0.13, no free face F=0；
R*--- equivalent rainfall, refer to the synthesis interception rainfall index for combining rainfall and hourly rainfall depth, determined according to formula 5；
R0--- average annual rainfall, inquire about local hydrologic manual and determine；
CV--- 1h rainfall coefficients of variation, inquire about local hydrologic manual and determine；
S=tan α formulas 2
R*=(B+5.5I) formulas 5；
C, Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface possibility occurrence grade is divided according to monitor value size；As P ＜ 0.34, possibility is very
It is small, send green safe signal；As 0.34≤P ＜ 0.46, possibility is medium, sends orange warning signal；, can when P >=0.46
Energy property is big, sends red early warning signal.
A kind of 2. application of Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface forecasting procedure according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：It is applicable
In the forecast of the Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface of debris flow body Yu 0 °≤α≤30 ° of ramp slope that mud-rock flow does not occur.
A kind of 3. application of Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface forecasting procedure according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：It is applicable
In the forecast of the Based on Red Bed Debris Flow on Slope Surface of 0 °≤β≤60 ° of the top gradient.
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