CN107480107A - Combustion gas gas consumption Forecasting Methodology - Google Patents
Combustion gas gas consumption Forecasting Methodology Download PDFInfo
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- CN107480107A CN107480107A CN201710547067.0A CN201710547067A CN107480107A CN 107480107 A CN107480107 A CN 107480107A CN 201710547067 A CN201710547067 A CN 201710547067A CN 107480107 A CN107480107 A CN 107480107A
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
- G06F17/00—Digital computing or data processing equipment or methods, specially adapted for specific functions
- G06F17/10—Complex mathematical operations
- G06F17/18—Complex mathematical operations for evaluating statistical data, e.g. average values, frequency distributions, probability functions, regression analysis
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
- G06F30/00—Computer-aided design [CAD]
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/04—Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q50/00—Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
- G06Q50/06—Electricity, gas or water supply
Abstract
The present invention discloses a kind of combustion gas gas consumption Forecasting Methodology, including last-period forecast and long-range forecasting, it is characterised in that：The last-period forecast is extended predicted method using history, and the history is extended predicted method；The long-range forecasting uses combination forecasting method, the founding mathematical models in MATLAB softwares, and sets unknown numerical value, and unknown numerical value is inputted, and combustion gas gas consumption predicted value at a specified future date is exported after software calculates.The combustion gas gas consumption Forecasting Methodology of the present invention is by the way of last-period forecast and long-range forecasting are combined, historical data is gathered using big data Platform Analysis, and use MATLAB software founding mathematical models, and the prediction of combustion gas gas consumption is calculated, long-range forecasting uses combination forecasting method, prediction error is effectively reduced, realizes accurate prediction.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to natural gas to manage technical field, and in particular to a kind of combustion gas gas consumption Forecasting Methodology.
Background technology
The prediction of traditional planning gas consumption is that gas user is classified, and is generally divided into resident, business, industry etc., with reference to
The gas consumption index and rate of gasification of all types of user, the gas consumption for planning year to all types of user is predicted, finally by all types of user
Prediction result collected, that is, obtain urban planning gas consumption.
In engineer applied, there is following defect in the Forecasting Methodology：The gas consumption index of use is one and empirically accumulated
Tired and formulation average, it is impossible to accurately reflect the level of economic development and life difference in area；This figure of gas consumption index
The factor of sound is more, by traditional statistical analysis method it is difficult to ensure that it is scientific.
The content of the invention
Goal of the invention：In view of the deficienciess of the prior art, it is an object of the invention to provide one kind prediction precisely, prediction misses
Poor low, the convenient combustion gas gas consumption Forecasting Methodology of operating process.
Technical scheme：In order to realize foregoing invention purpose, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is as follows：
A kind of combustion gas gas consumption Forecasting Methodology, including last-period forecast and long-range forecasting, the last-period forecast are drawn using history
Stretch predicted method, history predicted method of extending mainly includes the following steps that：
S1：Gas consumption historical summary is gathered using big data platform, arranges weave into time series, and root sequentially in time
Gas consumption statistical chart is drawn according to time series；
S2：Analysis time sequence, the external factor pair in each period in gas consumption statistical chart in estimated time sequence
The influence ratio of gas consumption numerical value；
S3：Using MATLAB software modelings, according to the actual gas consumption of history by statistical chart founding mathematical models, for mathematics
Unknown parameter in model, obtained using MATLAB softwares；Using obtained final mathematical modeling to planning that recent gas consumption enters
Row prediction；
The long-range forecasting uses combination forecasting method, the founding mathematical models in MATLAB softwares, and sets unknown number
Value, unknown numerical value is inputted, and combustion gas gas consumption predicted value at a specified future date is exported after software calculates.
Preferably, the time span of the last-period forecast is -24 months 1 month, the time span of the long-range forecasting
For -10 years 2 years.
Preferably, the combination forecasting method is the combination of regression analysis, elastic coefficient method and GDP unit consumption methods.
Preferably, the mathematical modeling of the combination forecasting method prediction combustion gas gas consumption value is m=0.35m1=0.3m2
+0.35m3；
M1 in formula --- regression analysis gas consumption predicts total value, m2 --- elastic coefficient method tolerance predicts total value, m3
--- GDP unit consumption methods tolerance predicts total value.
Preferably, the mathematical modeling of the GDP unit consumption method prediction combustion gas gas consumption value is m3=per GDP energy consumption refers to
Mark X GDP developing goals.
Preferably, the relational expression between the regression analysis prediction gas consumption value and principal component is：
M1=(2295.123 × 108+0.1711Xl+0.1795X2+0.1665X3+1091X4)×10-4；
In formula：Xl--- prediction year GDP；X2--- the prediction year secondary industry output value, member/a；
X3--- the prediction year tertiary industry output value, member/a；X4--- prediction year city permanent resident population quantity, people.
Preferably, the mathematical modeling of the elastic coefficient method prediction gas consumption value is m2=4412.79X 104(1+
ea)n(3)；
E in formula --- energy consumption elasticity, a --- GDP average growth rates per annum, n --- planning year and standard year span,
The calculation formula of consumption elasticity coefficient is as follows：E=d/a, d --- total energy consumption annual average rate of increase in formula, it is by elasticity
Number e prediction combustion gas gas consumptions m2.
Preferably, the MATLAB softwares use matalab7.0 softwares.
Beneficial effect：Compared with prior art, the present invention has advantages below：
The combustion gas gas consumption Forecasting Methodology of the present invention utilizes big number by the way of last-period forecast and long-range forecasting are combined
Historical data is gathered according to Platform Analysis, and uses MATLAB software founding mathematical models, and the prediction of combustion gas gas consumption is calculated,
Long-range forecasting uses combination forecasting method, effectively reduces prediction error, realizes accurate prediction, solving Individual forecast model can not
The different time stage Accurate Prediction city tolerance always the problem of.Form all has to should refer in which time phase
Model, so as to Accurate Prediction tolerance.
Embodiment
With reference to specific embodiment, the present invention is furture elucidated, and embodiment is under premised on technical solution of the present invention
Implemented, it should be understood that these embodiments are only illustrative of the invention and is not intended to limit the scope of the invention.
A kind of combustion gas gas consumption Forecasting Methodology, including last-period forecast and long-range forecasting, the last-period forecast are drawn using history
Stretch predicted method, history predicted method of extending mainly includes the following steps that：
S1：Gas consumption historical summary is gathered using big data platform, arranges weave into time series, and root sequentially in time
Gas consumption statistical chart is drawn according to time series；
S2：Analysis time sequence, the external factor pair in each period in gas consumption statistical chart in estimated time sequence
The influence ratio of gas consumption numerical value；
S3：Using MATLAB software modelings, according to the actual gas consumption of history by statistical chart founding mathematical models, for mathematics
Unknown parameter in model, obtained using MATLAB softwares；Using obtained final mathematical modeling to planning that recent gas consumption enters
Row prediction；
Long-range forecasting uses combination forecasting method, the founding mathematical models in MATLAB softwares, and sets unknown numerical value, will
Unknown numerical value input, and combustion gas gas consumption predicted value at a specified future date is exported after software calculates.Combination forecasting method be regression analysis,
The combination of elastic coefficient method and GDP unit consumption methods.MATLAB softwares use matalab7.0 softwares.
The time span of last-period forecast is -24 months 1 month, and the time span of the long-range forecasting is -10 years 2 years.
The mathematical modeling of combination forecasting method prediction combustion gas gas consumption value is m=0.35m1=0.3m2+0.35m3；In formula
M1 --- regression analysis gas consumption predicts total value, m2 --- elastic coefficient method tolerance predicts total value, m3 --- GDP unit consumption methods
Tolerance predicts total value.
The mathematical modeling of GDP unit consumption method prediction combustion gas gas consumption value is m3=per Unit GDP Energy Consumption index X GDP develop mesh
Mark.
Regression analysis predicts that the relational expression between gas consumption value and principal component is：
M1=(2295.123 × 108+0.1711Xl+0.1795X2+0.1665X3+1091X4)×10-4；
In formula：Xl--- prediction year GDP；X2--- the prediction year secondary industry output value, member/a；
X3--- the prediction year tertiary industry output value, member/a；X4--- prediction year city permanent resident population quantity, people.
The mathematical modeling of elastic coefficient method prediction gas consumption value is m2=4412.79X 104(1+ea)n(3)；
E in formula --- energy consumption elasticity, a --- GDP average growth rates per annum, n --- planning year and standard year span,
The calculation formula of consumption elasticity coefficient is as follows：E=d/a, d --- total energy consumption annual average rate of increase in formula, it is by elasticity
Number e prediction combustion gas gas consumptions m2.
Described above is only the preferred embodiment of the present invention, it is noted that for the ordinary skill people of the art
For member, under the premise without departing from the principles of the invention, some improvements and modifications can also be made, these improvements and modifications also should
It is considered as protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (8)
1. a kind of combustion gas gas consumption Forecasting Methodology, including last-period forecast and long-range forecasting, it is characterised in that：The last-period forecast is adopted
Extended predicted method with history, history predicted method of extending mainly includes the following steps that：
S1：Gather gas consumption historical summary using big data platform, arrange weave into time series sequentially in time, and according to when
Between sequence draw gas consumption statistical chart；
S2：Analysis time sequence, the external factor in each period in gas consumption statistical chart in estimated time sequence is to gas
The influence ratio of numerical quantity；
S3：Using MATLAB software modelings, according to the actual gas consumption of history by statistical chart founding mathematical models, for mathematical modeling
In unknown parameter, obtained using MATLAB softwares；Using obtained final mathematical modeling to planning that it is pre- that recent gas consumption is carried out
Survey；
The long-range forecasting uses combination forecasting method, the founding mathematical models in MATLAB softwares, and sets unknown numerical value, will
Unknown numerical value input, and combustion gas gas consumption predicted value at a specified future date is exported after software calculates.
2. combustion gas gas consumption Forecasting Methodology according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：The time span of the last-period forecast
For -24 months 1 month, the time span of the long-range forecasting was -10 years 2 years.
3. combustion gas gas consumption Forecasting Methodology according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：The combination forecasting method is recurrence
The combination of analytic approach, elastic coefficient method and GDP unit consumption methods.
4. combustion gas gas consumption Forecasting Methodology according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：The combination forecasting method prediction combustion
The mathematical modeling of gas gas consumption value is m=0.35m1=0.3m2+0.35m3；
M1 in formula --- regression analysis gas consumption predicts total value, m2 --- elastic coefficient method tolerance predicts total value, m3 --- GDP
Unit consumption method tolerance predicts total value.
5. combustion gas gas consumption Forecasting Methodology according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：The GDP unit consumption method predicts combustion gas
The mathematical modeling of gas consumption value is m3=per Unit GDP Energy Consumption index X GDP developing goals.
6. combustion gas gas consumption Forecasting Methodology according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：The regression analysis predicts combustion gas
Relational expression between volume value and principal component is：
M1=(2295.123 × 108+0.1711Xl+0.1795X2+0.1665X3+1091X4)×10-4；
In formula：Xl--- prediction year GDP；X2--- the prediction year secondary industry output value, member/a；
X3--- the prediction year tertiary industry output value, member/a；X4--- prediction year city permanent resident population quantity, people.
7. combustion gas gas consumption Forecasting Methodology according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：The elastic coefficient method predicts combustion gas
The mathematical modeling of volume value is m2=4412.79X 104(1+ea)n(3)；
E in formula --- energy consumption elasticity, a --- GDP average growth rates per annum, n --- planning year and standard year span, consumption
The calculation formula of coefficient of elasticity is as follows：E=d/a, d --- total energy consumption annual average rate of increase in formula are pre- by coefficient of elasticity e
Survey combustion gas gas consumption m2.
8. combustion gas gas consumption Forecasting Methodology according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：The MATLAB softwares use
Matalab7.0 softwares.
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Cited By (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN112530091A (en) * | 2020-12-04 | 2021-03-19 | 广州广燃设计有限公司 | Technical method applied to research on gas utilization law of gas users |
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2017
- 2017-07-06 CN CN201710547067.0A patent/CN107480107A/en active Pending
Cited By (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN112530091A (en) * | 2020-12-04 | 2021-03-19 | 广州广燃设计有限公司 | Technical method applied to research on gas utilization law of gas users |
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