CN107464071A - Gas Disaster method for early warning based on time series runs test - Google Patents
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Abstract
The present invention provides a kind of outburst coal mass method for early warning based on time series runs test, including：Calculate the average of the driving face gas density time series of t；Generate symbol sebolic addressing；Carry out runs test；If gas density time series is stable, in normal condition, t=s+1 gas densities time series is taken to carry out runs test；If t=s+1 moment gas density time serieses are stable, t=s+2 gas density time series is taken to carry out runs test；It is non-stable until a certain moment；If gas density time series is non-stable, the t=s moment is likely to be at abnormality, takes t=s+1 gas density time series to carry out runs test；If t=s+1 is still non-stationary, in abnormality；Carry out outburst coal mass early warning judgement.The variation characteristic of present invention extraction gas density time series, real-time dynamic early-warning is carried out to face gas Abnormal Methane Emission so that Gas Disaster early warning is engaged in be shifted in advance backward, is advantageous to gas accident prevention and control.
Description
Technical field
It is more particularly to a kind of to be based on time sequence the present invention relates to the early warning technology field of driving face in coal mine Gas Disaster
The Gas Disaster method for early warning of row runs test.
Background technology
Gas Disaster serious threat the life security of miner for a long time, often brings huge economy to country and society
Loss.With the effort of researcher, various Gas Disaster prediction new theories, new technology obtain research and development and application, ore deposit
Mountain Gas Disaster accident is also obviously improved.However, many Gas Disasters prediction generally used in China's coal-mine at present
Forecasting procedure, due to using underground instrumentation static measurement relevant parameter, corresponding index is calculated, is provided according to protrusion-dispelling detailed rules and regulations
It is predicted, it is necessary to certain quantities and the prediction activity duration of 2~3 hours.By wavelet theory, chaotic dynamics, divide shape
The introducing watt such as theoretical, catastrophe theory and artificial neural network theories, SVMs theory, gray system theory, genetic algorithm
The modernism of this hazard prediction, still using static sample obtained by traditional prediction method as research object, but apart from online practical phase
Difference is very remote, can not make a breakthrough in a short time.
The wind supply quantity of the driving face of each order of classes or grades at school can be considered as under normal circumstances under the hypothesis of constant, based on time sequence
Row analysis theories and method, using the daily gas monitor data of mine as research object, by analyzing some period monitoring point gas
Concentration data linked character extracts effective information, for expressing the change of gas density under each influence factor collective effect spy
Sign, in this, as the foundation of Gas Disaster early warning analysis, has important directive significance for site safety management.
The content of the invention
Using static sample as research object and the deficiency of larger workload is needed for prior art, and the present invention proposes
Gas Disaster method for early warning based on time series runs test, can be widely applied to the prediction and warning of coal mine gas disaster
In.
In order to solve the above-mentioned technical problem, the present invention is achieved by the following technical solutions：
Outburst coal mass method for early warning based on time series runs test, including：
Calculate the average of the driving face gas density time series of t；
Generate symbol sebolic addressing：In the case where keeping the original order of gas density time series, by therein not less than this
The gas concentration of average, the gas concentration less than the average are marked with distinct symbols, obtain a symbol sebolic addressing；In symbol
Each section of consecutive identical symbol subsequence is referred to as a distance of swimming in sequence；
Runs test is carried out to gas density time series based on symbol sebolic addressing；
If runs test after gas concentration-time sequence is stable, current t=s moment driving face Gas
In normal condition, subsequent time t=s+1 gas density time series is taken, symbol sebolic addressing is generated and is based on symbol sebolic addressing pair
Gas density time series carries out runs test；If t=s+1 moment gas densities time series is stable after runs test,
Subsequent time t=s+2 gas density time series is taken, generates symbol sebolic addressing and based on symbol sebolic addressing to gas density time sequence
Row carry out runs test；The rest may be inferred, until a certain moment runs test after gas concentration-time sequence is non-stable；
If runs test after gas concentration-time sequence is non-stable, current t=s moment driving face watt is judged
This, which is gushed out, is likely to be at abnormality, takes subsequent time t=s+1 gas density time series, generates symbol sebolic addressing and is based on
Symbol sebolic addressing carries out runs test to gas density time series；If moment t=s+1 gas density time sequence after runs test
Row are still non-stationary, then current time driving face Gas is in abnormality；And driving face gas is gushed
Go out residing abnormality and carry out outburst coal mass early warning judgement：
If the time series of the gas density at t=s+1 moment is still non-stationary, driving face Gas is judged
The abnormal stage is had been enter into, i.e. gas effusion intensity start time was between t=s-1 moment and t=s moment, at the t=s moment
Driving face Gas has been enter into the abnormal stage, and sends outburst coal mass early warning；Otherwise, subsequent time t=s+2 is taken
Gas density time series, generate symbol sebolic addressing, and based on symbol sebolic addressing to gas density time series carry out distance of swimming inspection
Test.
It is described that runs test is carried out to gas density time series based on symbol sebolic addressing, including：
The number that two kinds of symbols occur in the total and described symbol sebolic addressing of the distance of swimming in the symbol sebolic addressing is calculated, judges two
Whether the number that kind symbol occurs is no more than 15：
If the number that two kinds of symbols occur is no more than 15, judge under the given level of signifiance in the symbol sebolic addressing
Whether distance of swimming sum belongs to normal range (NR)：It is that then gas density time series is stable；Otherwise gas density time series is
Non-stationary；
If the number that two kinds of symbols occur calculates gas density all more than 15 or one of them is more than 15 setting values
The distance of swimming of time series it is expected number and distance of swimming standard deviation, under the given level of signifiance, if the absolute value of test statistics is less than
1.96, then gas density time series is stable；If the absolute value of test statistics is not less than 1.96, the gas density time
Sequence non-stationary.
The existing upper limit of distance of swimming sum in the symbol sebolic addressing has lower limit again when, the normal range (NR) is the symbol sebolic addressing
In distance of swimming sum be more than its lower limit and small limit thereon；
When distance of swimming sum in the symbol sebolic addressing only has lower limit, the normal range (NR) is the distance of swimming in the symbol sebolic addressing
Sum is more than its lower limit.
The distance of swimming of the gas density time series it is expected numberWherein, r is in the symbol sebolic addressing
The distance of swimming sum, n1、n2The number that two kinds of symbols occur in respectively described symbol sebolic addressing.
The distance of swimming standard deviationWherein, r is that the distance of swimming in the symbol sebolic addressing is total
Number, n1、n2The number that two kinds of symbols occur in respectively described symbol sebolic addressing.
The test statisticsWherein, r is the distance of swimming sum in the symbol sebolic addressing, and E (r) is described
The distance of swimming of gas density time series it is expected number, and D (r) is the distance of swimming standard deviation.
The symbol sebolic addressing is not less than this in the case where keeping the original order of gas density time series by therein
The gas concentration of average, the gas concentration less than the average mark what is obtained with distinct symbols "+", "-".
Beneficial effect：
Gas Disaster method for early warning of the invention based on time series runs test, has the advantages of following aspect：Utilize
Modern time series analysis method and technology, the variation characteristic of gas density time series is extracted, face gas is gushed extremely
Go out to carry out real-time dynamic early-warning so that Gas Disaster early warning is engaged in be shifted in advance backward, passive with active prevention substitution tradition
The Accident prevention of formula, be advantageous to gas accident prevention and control.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the driving face in coal mine gas density time plot of one embodiment of the invention；
Fig. 2 is the outburst coal mass method for early warning flow based on time series runs test of one embodiment of the invention
Figure；
Fig. 3 is the time series X of one embodiment of the invention(27)To X(150)Runs test result.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with the accompanying drawing in the embodiment of the present invention, the technical scheme in the embodiment of the present invention is carried out clear, complete
Site preparation describes, it is clear that described embodiment is only part of the embodiment of the present invention, rather than whole embodiments.It is based on
Embodiment in the present invention, those of ordinary skill in the art are obtained every other under the premise of creative work is not made
Embodiment, belong to the scope of protection of the invention.
According to documents and materials, research area Huainan Pan Sankuang east 48 coal on the 23rd of September in 2005 transports gas when going up a hill comprehensive pick
Gas density data (sampling period is one minute, totally 150 gas density data) before and after protrusion in a period of time, drafting watt
This Cot curve is as shown in Figure 1.It is abnormal to study the coal transport raise advance face gas of area Huainan Pan Sankuang east 48
Gush out exemplified by breeding period, the flow of the outburst coal mass method for early warning based on time series runs test is as shown in Fig. 2 bag
Include following steps：
Step 1, the driving face gas for obtaining from the safety monitor and control system of Pan three the t=9min moment
Concentration-time sequence X(9){xt, t=1,2 ..., 9 }, the length of time series is T0=9, t represent sampling instant, xtWhen representing t
The gas density at quarter.
Updated with the dynamic of the gas concentration monitoring data obtained from safety monitor and control system, respectively
Obtain new gas density time series X(10), X(11), X(12)... the length of time series is followed successively by T1=10, T2=11, T3
=12 ....
The relevant information of each gas density time series refers to table 1：
The gas density time serial message table of table 1
The average of step 2, the driving face gas density time series of calculating t, i.e. X(9){xt, t=1,2 ...,
9 } average
Step 3, generation symbol sebolic addressing：Keeping gas density time series X(9){xt, t=1,2 ..., 9 } and original order
In the case of, by the gas concentration therein not less than the average, the distinct symbols mark of the gas concentration less than the average
Note, obtains a symbol sebolic addressing.By X(9){xt, t=1,2 ..., 9 } in be not less thanGas concentration be designated as "+", will wherein
It is less thanGas concentration be designated as "-", so corresponding to former gas density time series X(9){xt, t=1,2 ..., 9 } obtain
Symbol sebolic addressing：
——++————+——+——
Each section of consecutive identical symbol subsequence is referred to as a distance of swimming in the symbol sebolic addressing.
Step 4, based on symbol sebolic addressing to gas density time series X(9){xt, t=1,2 ..., 9 } carry out runs test.
Step 4-1, the symbol sebolic addressing X is calculated(9){xt, t=1,2 ..., 9 } in distance of swimming sum r=7 and the symbol
The frequency n that two kinds of symbol "+" and "-" occur in sequence1、n2, judge whether the number that two kinds of symbols occur is no more than 15：
If the number that two kinds of symbols occur is no more than 15, step 4-2 is performed；If two kinds of symbol "+" and "-" occur
Frequency n1、n2All more than 15 or one of them is more than 15, then step 4-3 is performed；
Step 4-2, judge whether the distance of swimming sum in the symbol sebolic addressing belongs to just in given level of signifiance α=0.05
Normal scope：It is, then gas density time series X(9){xt, t=1,2 ..., 9 } it is stable；Otherwise gas density time series
X(9){xt, t=1,2 ..., 9 } it is non-stable.
The existing upper limit r of distance of swimming sum r in the symbol sebolic addressingUThere is lower limit r againLWhen, the normal range (NR) is the symbol
In sequence the distance of swimming sum be more than its lower limit and it is small limit thereon, i.e. rL＜ r ＜ rU；rLAnd rUIt can table look-up and 2 obtain；
When distance of swimming sum r in the symbol sebolic addressing only has lower limit, the normal range (NR) is the trip in the symbol sebolic addressing
Journey sum is more than its lower limit, i.e. rL＜ r.
In present embodiment, being tabled look-up under given level of signifiance α=0.05 2 obtains n1=4, n2Distance of swimming sum r when=5
Lower limit rL=2, upper limit rU=9, rL＜ r=7 ＜ rU, then it is assumed that gas density time series X(9){xt, t=1,2 ..., 9 } be
Smoothly, step 5 is directly performed.
Step 4-3, gas density time series X is calculated(9){xt, t=1,2 ..., 9 } the distance of swimming it is expected numberWith distance of swimming standard deviationUnder given level of signifiance α=0.05, if
Test statisticsAbsolute value | Z | ＜ 1.96, then gas density time series X(t){xt, t=1,2 ..., n } be
Smoothly；If the absolute value of test statistics is not less than 1.96, gas density time series non-stationary.
Step 5, according to runs test after gas concentration-time sequence whether steadily carry out outburst coal mass early warning judgement：
If runs test after gas concentration-time sequence X(t){xt, t=1,2 ..., n } and be stable, then during current t=s
Carve driving face Gas and be in normal condition, take subsequent time t=s+1 gas density time series, generate symbol
Sequence simultaneously carries out runs test based on symbol sebolic addressing to gas density time series, repeats step 2 to step 5；
If runs test after gas concentration-time sequence X(t){xt, t=1,2 ..., n } and be non-stable, then judge current t
=s moment driving face Gas is likely to be at abnormality, takes subsequent time t=s+1 gas density time series
X(s+1){xt, t=1,2 ..., n, n+1 }, generate symbol sebolic addressing and the distance of swimming is carried out to gas density time series based on symbol sebolic addressing
Examine；If moment t=s+1 gas density time series is still non-stationary after runs test, current time headwork
Face Gas is in abnormality；And it is pre- to carry out outburst coal mass to the abnormality residing for driving face Gas
It is alert to judge：
If the time series of the gas density at t=s+1 moment is still non-stationary, driving face Gas is judged
The abnormal stage is had been enter into, i.e. gas effusion intensity start time was between t=s-1 moment and t=s moment, at the t=s moment
Driving face Gas has been enter into the abnormal stage, and sends outburst coal mass early warning；Otherwise, subsequent time t=s+2 is taken
Gas density time series X(s+2){xt, t=1,2 ..., n, n+1, n+2 }, symbol sebolic addressing is generated, and be based on symbol sebolic addressing
Runs test is carried out to gas density time series, repeats step 2 to step 5.
In present embodiment, gas density time series X(9){xt, t=1,2 ..., 9 } and it is stable, then current t=
9min moment driving faces Gas is in normal condition, takes the gas density time series X after subsequent time renewal(10）
{xt, t=1,2 ..., 10 }, step 2 is repeated to step 5.The rest may be inferred to the coal transport raise advance of the ore deposit of Pan three east 48
Gas density time series before and after face gas Abnormal Methane Emission in one period is tested, gas density time series
X(9){xt, t=1,2 ..., 9 } and to X(26){xt, t=1,2 ..., 26 } in distance of swimming sum r and the number that occurs of "+" and " one "
n1、n2As shown in table 3, table look-up X knowable to 2(9){xt, t=1,2 ..., 9 } and to X(26){xt, t=1,2 ..., 26 } be all it is stable, because
Gas in this moment t=9min to t=26min periods is in normal condition.Gas density time series X(27){xt,
T=1,2 ..., 27 } to X(98){xt, t=1,2 ..., 98 } test statistics | Z | be respectively less than 1.96, therefore moment t=27min
Gas density time series in the t=98min periods is stable, and driving face Gas is in normal condition；
From gas density time series X(99){xt, t=1,2 ..., 99 } start test statistics occur | Z |=1.984 ＞ 1.96 feelings
Condition, take the time series X of subsequent time t=s+1 gas density(s+1){xt, t=1,2 ..., n, n+1 }, symbol sebolic addressing is generated,
And runs test is carried out to gas density time series based on symbol sebolic addressing, step 2 is repeated to step 5.
Moment t=100min gas density is taken in present embodiment, performs step 2 to step 5, gas density time sequence
Arrange X(100){xt, t=1,2 ..., 100 } test statistics | Z |=2.097 ＞ 1.96, therefore gushed in t=99min moment gas
Go out to initially enter abnormality, send warning information within 14 minutes before driving face gas pours out, now staff
Enhance your vigilance and investigate potential safety hazard.
Time series X(27){xt, t=1,2 ..., 27 } and to X(150){xt, t=1,2 ..., 150 } assay such as Fig. 3 institutes
Show.
The runs test of table 2 r distribution tables
Table 3X(9)To X(26)Middle r, n1、n2Summary sheet
Claims (7)
1. the outburst coal mass method for early warning based on time series runs test, it is characterised in that including：
Calculate the average of the driving face gas density time series of t；
Generate symbol sebolic addressing：In the case where keeping the original order of gas density time series, it is not less than the average by therein
Gas concentration, marked with distinct symbols less than the gas concentration of the average, obtain a symbol sebolic addressing；In symbol sebolic addressing
In each section of consecutive identical symbol subsequence be referred to as a distance of swimming；
Runs test is carried out to gas density time series based on symbol sebolic addressing；
If runs test after gas concentration-time sequence is stable, current t=s moment driving face Gas is in
Normal condition, subsequent time t=s+1 gas density time series is taken, generate symbol sebolic addressing and based on symbol sebolic addressing to gas
Concentration-time sequence carries out runs test；If t=s+1 moment gas densities time series is stable after runs test, remove
One moment t=s+2 gas density time series, generate symbol sebolic addressing and gas density time series is entered based on symbol sebolic addressing
Row runs test；The rest may be inferred, until a certain moment runs test after gas concentration-time sequence is non-stable；
If runs test after gas concentration-time sequence is non-stable, judge that current t=s moment driving face gas gushes
Go out to be likely to be at abnormality, take subsequent time t=s+1 gas density time series, generate symbol sebolic addressing and be based on symbol
Sequence pair gas density time series carries out runs test；If moment t=s+1 gas density time series is still after runs test
It is non-stable, then current time driving face Gas is in abnormality；And to driving face Gas institute
The abnormality at place carries out outburst coal mass early warning judgement：
If the time series of the gas density at t=s+1 moment is still non-stationary, judge that driving face Gas has entered
Enter the abnormal stage, i.e. gas effusion intensity start time was between t=s-1 moment and t=s moment, was tunneled at the t=s moment
Face gas, which is gushed out, has been enter into the abnormal stage, and sends outburst coal mass early warning；Otherwise, subsequent time t=s+2 watt is taken
The time series of this concentration, symbol sebolic addressing is generated, and runs test is carried out to gas density time series based on symbol sebolic addressing.
2. the outburst coal mass method for early warning according to claim 1 based on time series runs test, its feature exist
In, it is described that runs test is carried out to gas density time series based on symbol sebolic addressing, including：
The number that two kinds of symbols occur in the total and described symbol sebolic addressing of the distance of swimming in the symbol sebolic addressing is calculated, judges two kinds of symbols
Number occur number whether be no more than 15：
If the number that two kinds of symbols occur is no more than 15, the distance of swimming in judging the symbol sebolic addressing under the given level of signifiance
Whether sum belongs to normal range (NR)：It is that then gas density time series is stable；Otherwise gas density time series is non-flat
Steady；
If the number that two kinds of symbols occur all more than 15 or one of them is more than 15, calculating gas density time series
The distance of swimming it is expected number and distance of swimming standard deviation, and under the given level of signifiance, if the absolute value of test statistics is less than 1.96, gas is dense
It is stable to spend time series；If the absolute value of test statistics is not less than 1.96, gas density time series non-stationary.
3. the outburst coal mass method for early warning according to claim 2 based on time series runs test, its feature exist
In,
The existing upper limit of distance of swimming sum in the symbol sebolic addressing has lower limit again when, the normal range (NR) is in the symbol sebolic addressing
Distance of swimming sum is more than its lower limit and small limited thereon；
When distance of swimming sum in the symbol sebolic addressing only has lower limit, the normal range (NR) is the distance of swimming sum in the symbol sebolic addressing
More than its lower limit.
4. the outburst coal mass method for early warning according to claim 2 based on time series runs test, its feature exist
In the distance of swimming of the gas density time series it is expected numberWherein, r is the trip in the symbol sebolic addressing
Journey sum, n1、n2The number that two kinds of symbols occur in respectively described symbol sebolic addressing.
5. the outburst coal mass method for early warning according to claim 2 based on time series runs test, its feature exist
In the distance of swimming standard deviationWherein, r is that the distance of swimming in the symbol sebolic addressing is total, n1、
n2The number that two kinds of symbols occur in respectively described symbol sebolic addressing.
6. the outburst coal mass method for early warning according to claim 2 based on time series runs test, its feature exist
In the test statisticsWherein, r is the distance of swimming sum in the symbol sebolic addressing, and E (r) is that the gas is dense
The distance of swimming for spending time series it is expected number, and D (r) is the distance of swimming standard deviation.
7. according to the pre- police of the outburst coal mass based on time series runs test according to any one of claims 1 to 6
Method, it is characterised in that the symbol sebolic addressing be in the case where keeping the original order of gas density time series by it is therein not
Gas concentration less than the average, the gas concentration less than the average mark what is obtained with distinct symbols "+", "-".
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| CN109660682A (en) * | 2018-12-19 | 2019-04-19 | 杭州小犇科技有限公司 | A kind of program-controlled equipment of equipment integrating multiple communication modes |
| CN110674983A (en) * | 2019-09-05 | 2020-01-10 | 辽宁工程技术大学 | Working face gas early warning method based on copula function tail correlation analysis |
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| CN113958368A (en) * | 2021-10-18 | 2022-01-21 | 淮南矿业(集团)有限责任公司 | Gas early warning method and system based on concentration amplification |
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