CN107437193A - A kind of method and its delivery system for calculating cement price and consumer confidence index - Google Patents

A kind of method and its delivery system for calculating cement price and consumer confidence index Download PDF

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CN107437193A
CN107437193A CN201610363129.8A CN201610363129A CN107437193A CN 107437193 A CN107437193 A CN 107437193A CN 201610363129 A CN201610363129 A CN 201610363129A CN 107437193 A CN107437193 A CN 107437193A
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mrow
index
msub
cement
price
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郑建辉
毛春苗
王立
李顺杰
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Zhejiang Zhongjian Network Polytron Technologies Inc
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Zhejiang Zhongjian Network Polytron Technologies Inc
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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q30/00—Commerce
    • G06Q30/02—Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
    • G06Q30/0201—Market modelling; Market analysis; Collecting market data
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q30/00—Commerce
    • G06Q30/02—Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
    • G06Q30/0201—Market modelling; Market analysis; Collecting market data
    • G06Q30/0206—Price or cost determination based on market factors

Abstract

The invention discloses a kind of method and its delivery system for calculating cement price and consumer confidence index, its drip irrigation device is the computational methods of the computational methods and cement consumer confidence index that include cement price index, and cement price index and the early warning delivery system of consumer confidence index.A kind of calculating cement price of the present invention and the method and its delivery system of consumer confidence index can provide reference for the economic behaviour of cement industry by cement index to macroscopic aspect, economic operation analysis and prediction are provided for industry, and be can be appreciated that the state of development of industry, prospect for enterprise out of trade and provided reference for analysis investment value.

Description

A kind of method and its delivery system for calculating cement price and consumer confidence index
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of method and its delivery system for calculating cement price and consumer confidence index.
Background technology
Since 2012, this concept of big data was more and more referred to by people.All trades and professions are increasingly paid attention to, answered With data, arrive data as a kind of resource, big data epoch therewith.Statistical circles have a well-known saying：Data can not illustrate one Cut, but what can not all illustrate no data.Enterprise's production and marketing plan, external investment decision, industry policies none need not Data supporting.
For conventional industries as cement industry, equally there are many data.The buying of enterprise level, production, thing Stream, sale, investment etc.；The supply and demand of industry aspect, price, profit, inlet and outlet etc..In face of numerous and jumbled data, it would be desirable to What is done is exactly the target according to us, forms readable, simple, intuitively index with quantization means, helps our sections Learn decision-making.
By development for many years, the cement industry scale in China has ranked first in the world, and cement output accounts for complete more than 2,400,000,000 tons 60% or so of ball total output, the effect that can not be substituted is played to national economy.However, the formulation of Industry Policy and The investment decision of enterprise all lacks a quantifiable foundation, the operation conditions of industry, the change in long term of price, OK all the time Lead-time of industry etc. does not reflect instrument intuitively.
In terms of each segmented industry of building materials, glass industry has had Chinese glass composite index, household living-- room decoration material row Industry has national building materials household consumer confidence index (BHI)；In terms of cement industry upstream and downstream, coal industry has Circum-Bohai Sea thermal coal price to refer to Number, Chinese coal price index, concrete have chinese concrete industry composite index, and real estate has state's room consumer confidence index；From Industrial class staple commodities see that steel industry has the price index of all kinds steel.Cement is as the important of the development of the national economy Basic raw material, its price movement have direct influence to upstream and downstream product price.The state of development of cement industry even with The state of development of national economy has the relation of interwoveness, and therefore, establishment cement index is for industry early warning and monitoring, industry political affairs Plan formulation, enterprise investment, industry transition and upgrade have important reference and directive function.
Cement index is mainly made up of cement price index, cement consumer confidence index.When cement price index is that reflection is different The economic indicator of the horizontal change direction of phase cement price, trend and degree, cement consumer confidence index are that reflection cement industry is prosperous Change direction, the economic indicator of trend and degree, be made up of same index, beforehand index and lagging index, can be cement row The policy making of industry, the structural adjustment of enterprise provide decision support.In addition, to judge prosperous state, with prosperity early warning signal Supplemental tool of the lamp system as boom monitoring.
The content of the invention
In view of the deficienciess of the prior art, it is an object of the invention to provide one kind can calculate cement price and boom Index (it is consistent, in advance, afterwards with prosperous lamp system) method and its delivery system.
To achieve the above object, the invention provides following technical scheme：A kind of cement price and consumer confidence index of calculating Method and its delivery system, its step are：
1) computational methods of cement price index：
(1) specification product are represented：P.O42.5 bulk cements,
(2) sample determines：Sample determines by the way of stratified sampling, focal investigation, typical investigation are combined,
(3) data acquisition and adjustment：The price of collection is the producer price of P.O42.5 bulk cements,
(4) determination in base period：Selected 2009 are the base period, and base prices index is 100 points of (2009 annual price levels =100),
(5) price index weight is with calculating：Cement price index takes two-stage weight：Local administrative area's weight and brand Weight, local administrative area's weight is according to ready-mixed concrete consumption figure, investment in fixed assets, the determination of cement output COMPREHENSIVE CALCULATING, product Board weight calculates according to the brand vendor in the occupation rate of market of local administrative area,
1., according to brand weight and each local administrative area's average price of brand product price weighted calculation：
In formula：pk(j) it is the average price of k-th of local administrative area's jth phase, ri(j) it is in bulk for i-th of brand P.O42.5 The market price of cement, ci(j) it is the weight of the brand,
2., according to the national and each region cement price index of each local administrative area's weight and average price weighted calculation, The basic mathematic model used during gauge index is Laplace formula：
In formula：wi(0) it is i-th of local administrative area's base period weighted value, piAnd p (1)i(0) it is respectively that i-th of region is administrative Area's report period and the P.O42.5 bulk cement average prices in base period；
2) computational methods of cement consumer confidence index：
(1) prosperous selecting index：Consumer confidence index is showed by prosperous index comprehensive, when choosing prosperous index, it is necessary to Meet following principle：
1., embody the important information of industry, can directly reflect the information of some side of industry, observe an industry, it is main To be considered from supply and demand scale, management state, upstream and downstream and relevant industries, wherein supply and demand scale, management state are central factors；
2., statistics it is from the horse's mouth, complete, timely, for the prosperous change of reflection cement industry in time, use with monthly as frequency Rate calculates cement industry consumer confidence index；
3., cement industry boom important indicator：According to seven profit, income, price, cost, supply, demand, foreign trade sides Face extracts the important indicator of cement industry；
4., the prosperous alternative index of cement industry：Can be to the fortune of industry using the index of relevant industries or industry upstream and downstream Row situation is predicted or verifies,
(2) data extraction, the processing of index：Use and calculate cement industry consumer confidence index with monthly for frequency, to identify water The cyclic fluctuation of mud industry, it is necessary to the data volume of at least 4 years, cement industry economic Cycles Analysis use year-on-year growth rate round-robin method, Growth rate circulation be observe economic time series growth rate (with same month last year or with season than rate of change), analyze its fluctuation Regularity, seasonal adjustment is carried out to time series, and the fluctuation of long-term trend and repeat factor (TC) to growth rate sequence is carried out Analysis, and use X-12 multiplied model seasonal adjustment methods：
1., Growth Rate Calculation formula：
In formula：bi(t) it is index aiIn the year-on-year growth rate of t, ai(t) it is index aiIn the value of t, ai(t-12) For index aiIn the value at t-12 moment, index aiThe index started including code with A, V, F, R, after processing, name of code is corresponding For a, v, f, r；
2., seasonal adjustment (using Census Bureau of U.S. X-12ARMA programs)：Code is a, v, f, r index through seasonal adjustment Afterwards, code at, vt, ft, rt (rejecting seasonal factor and irregular factor), herein using the X-12ARMA in EVIEW 8.0 Program adjusts,
(3) determination of benchmark circulation：Prosperous benchmark cycle indicator using profit as industry, calculate profit and other important fingers Target coefficient correlation, and determine that cement price, income from sales, cement output, new dry process clinker capacity utilization ratio, real estate are opened Hair investment, cement and clinker outlet unit price are coincidence indicator,
1., determine benchmark circular wave index T (t)：
In formula：T (t) is in the basic circular wave index of t, ci(t) it is index ciIn the value of t, wiFor index ciWeight ciThe index started including code with, vt, ft, rt；
2., the determination of weight use correlation coefficient process：
In formula：rijFor index ciWith index cjCoefficient correlation, weighted list can be calculated accordingly, further can calculating benchmark Circular wave index；
(4) classification of index：Using benchmark circular wave index as reference, to the important indicator extracting and treat and alternative Index is classified, and is divided into coincidence indicator, lagging indicator and leading indicators, the difference correlation when classification of cement boom index uses Method, K-L information Contents Methods, clustering procedure and peak valley method, finally the consistent situation in four kinds of methods make final judgement,
(5) synthesis and calculating of initial exponential：
Index synthesis circulates prosperous composite index number (The Composite Index, it is CI to write a Chinese character in simplified form) using growth rate and calculated Method, step are as follows：
1., calculate symmetrical rate of change：
Cij(t) be i-th of index in index group that type is j symmetrical rate of change
If Yij(t) there are zero or negative value, Cij(t)=Yij(t)-Yij(t-1)；
2., normalization factor is with standardizing symmetrical rate of change：
Normalization factor
Standardize symmetrical rate of change
3., seek the standardization average rate of change of each index group (weight determines according to VC Method)：
VC Method weight determines that formula is as follows：
4., the parameter group internal standardization factor：
The average rate of change in normalized group, it is therefore an objective to make each group peak valley that there is comparativity：
Vj(t)=Rj(t)/Fj；
5. seek initial synthesis index
(6) base period and index replacement：From high point in 2011 to the low spot of 2012, then to steady in 2013 and The peak value of the fourth quater, can be considered a wheel circulate, thus using 3 years 2011~2013 years average level in advance, one Cause, lagging index adjusts (average value calculates according to above-mentioned initial exponential), base period horizontal as 2011~2013 average water It is flat, final index Ij' (t) formula are：
3) cement price index and the delivery system of consumer confidence index：
(1) selecting index of prosperity early warning index：10 warning indexs are chosen, wherein synchronous with Economic Climate fluctuation one Cause index to occupy the majority, and add a small number of lead and lag indexs,
(2) determination of index boundary value and early warning index calculate：Pass through the minimum value, maximum, median of index series Determine the boundary value of each index, then with comprehensive grading calculate early warning index, grade average 27, as 100 points, Remaining comprehensive pre-warning index is calculated, comprehensive pre-warning exponential formula is as follows：
(3) lamp area was divided according to its value to the index of 2011~2013 years,
1., blue lamp region：
2., light blue lamp region：
3., green light region：
4., amber light region：
6., red light region：
Present invention tool has the advantage that：The economic behaviour of cement industry has significant impact to macroeconomy, as cement produces Amount speedup is macroeconomic leading indicators, and the cement industry degree of prosperity is gone up reflects the recovery of economy to a certain extent, thus Cement index can provide reference for macroscopic aspect, reflect economical operation and the state of development of industry, hold industry moving law, be National policy department provides the decision references such as policy making and adjustment, economic operation analysis and prediction is provided for industry, for industry Interior enterprise (sale, can be merged, transition ...) according to Industry adjustable strategies in time, and row is can be appreciated that for enterprise out of trade The state of development of industry, prospect and provides reference for analysis investment value, cement price and consumer confidence index can not only instruct cement The resource allocations such as enterprise's production, operation, sale and logistics, can also guide the throwing of cement industry Strategic M ＆ A and the capital of property Capital is to assessment and input of the guiding social capital to cement industry.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the FB(flow block) that the cement price index of the present invention calculates；
Fig. 2 is the FB(flow block) that the cement consumer confidence index of the present invention calculates；
Fig. 3 be the present invention cement price index and consumer confidence index delivery system FB(flow block).
Embodiment
Referring to figs. 1 to shown in 3, a kind of calculating cement price of the present embodiment and the method for consumer confidence index and its issue are System, its step are：
As shown in Figure 1, the computational methods of cement price index：
(1) specification product are represented：P.O42.5 bulk cements,
Represent specification product and refer to the most representative specification product for selecting out from entire service by certain principle, that is, work out The sample commodity of price index.China's cement products quantity is more, not only price according to specific time and site and different, and its specification, kind It is varied.In national each province and city, different cement production enterprises have respective specific brand, under same brand, packaging be present The differences such as form, cement type, its price differential is also larger, and it is sample business that this, which just needs to select the cement of the corresponding kind of corresponding brand, Product.In order that the variation of cement sample price accurately reflects the change conditions of cement average price, when selection cement represents product, Following principle should be followed：
(a) all kind cement are represented as principle using P.O42.5 cement
According to《The name of cement, definition and term GBT4131-1997》Regulation, cement can be divided into by its purposes and performance General-purpose cement, cement special and the class of characteristic cement three.Cement special and characteristic cement are typically collectively referred to as special cement, statistics Display China's special cement in 2012 underproduce cement total output 2% (developed country's special cement accounts for its cement total yield Amount 6%~10%).Thus domestic in China, manufacture of cement and consumption are mainly based on general-purpose cement, and general-purpose cement refers generally to Common portland cement.According to《Common portland cement standard GB-175-2007》Regulation, common portland cement press mixing material The kind and volume of material are divided into portland cement (code name P.I, P.II), Portland cement (code name P.O), slag portland Cement (code name P.S.A, P.S.B), Portland pozzolana cement (code name P.P), Portland fly ash cement (code name P.F) and Composite Portland cement (code name P.C).
At present, most of cement production enterprise production P.O42.5 grade cements and P.C32.5 grade cements (or P.S.A32.5) Quantitative proportion be generally 40%：60%, the cement output of other kinds is relatively fewer.
In October, 2013, State Council put into effect《Instruction on the serious superfluous contradiction of neutralizing production capacity》, for cement row Industry proposes " to promote the use of high-mark cement and high performance concrete, cancel 32.5 complex cement product standards as early as possible, gradually reduce 32.5 complex cements use proportion " policy.In January, 2014, the total institute of Chinese architecture materialogy research propose《Common Portland water Mud new standard exposure draft》, wherein eliminating P.C32.5 and P.C32.5R product standard.At present, 32.5 Compound Waters are cancelled Mud product standard has been trend of the times, and market can also change with the cancellation of standard, and following Cement Market will be with P.O42.5 cement products account for main body.
Therefore, consider, representing cement price with P.O42.5 cement prices possesses reasonability.
(b) all bulk cements are represented as principle using P.O42.5 bulk cements
For P.O42.5 bulk cements price compared with packed price, price is lower slightly, but both price movement directions basic one Cause.In recent years, the horizontal constantly lifting of cement bulk purification, the average cement bulk rate in 2014 end of the years whole nation is 57.58%,《Cement Industrial " 12 " development plan》It is proposed " further improving bulk cement use ratio ".Western developed country cement bulk purification For rate more than 80%, it is inexorable trend that China's cement develops towards containerization.Thus represented with P.O42.5 bulk cements price P.O42.5 cement prices can reflect the price real change situation of Cement Market.
(2) sample determines：Sample determines by the way of stratified sampling, focal investigation, typical investigation are combined,
(a) totally will be divided according to 31 provinces and cities and subordinate local administrative area (People's Republic of China's two level administrative area) Layer, the proportion that the investment in fixed assets of subordinate local administrative area of each province accounts for the whole province is calculated, then ranking, rejecting save internal ratio from big to small The minimum local administrative area of weight, 95% that proportion accounts for the whole province is thrown admittedly by remaining local administrative area, while weeds out no P.O42.5 and dissipate The local administrative area of manufacture of cement unit is filled, finally gives 236 local administrative areas, this 236 local administrative area P.O42.5 dissipate Dress cement consumption accounts for more than the 95% of national total dosage, can represent totality substantially.
(b) the bulk cement usage amount proportion of 236 local administrative areas is calculated, and carries out ranking from big to small, is calculated tired Product proportion, chooses the local administrative area 122 when accumulation proportion reaches 80%, part province because Wei You local administrative areas be selected into because And 37 local administrative areas and the larger area (Tongling, Jiujiang, Nanchang) of part of cement yield are individually supplemented, add up to and formed altogether 159 local administrative areas, with these areas for emphasis local administrative area.
(c) the respective real estate cement brand of 159 local administrative areas is determined, totally 148 brands.
In the selection in sample brand and sample city, it can be adjusted in good time according to the change and needs in market.
(3) data acquisition and adjustment：The price of collection is the producer price of P.O42.5 bulk cements, but producer externally reports Valency contains certain virtual height composition, or occurs situation about dropping in the dark sometimes, thus mixes station by market survey and buying side, business Information carries out a series of adjustment to producer price, provides the reference data price in market.According to tracking over the years, the data can be more accurate The actual conditions that true reflection market is struck a bargain.
(4) determination in base period：Because ring fluctuation more general than price index is larger, it is difficult to which what price reflection changed becomes for a long time Gesture, thus to be analyzed using base price grid index is determined.The stability of composite price operation, time span etc. of price collection because Element consider selected 2009 be the base period, base prices index is 100 points (2009 annual price level=100).
(5) price index weight is with calculating：Cement price index takes two-stage weight：Local administrative area's weight and brand Weight, local administrative area's weight is according to ready-mixed concrete consumption figure, investment in fixed assets, the determination of cement output COMPREHENSIVE CALCULATING, product Board weight calculates according to the brand vendor in the occupation rate of market of local administrative area,
1., according to brand weight and each local administrative area's average price of brand product price weighted calculation：
In formula：pk(j) it is the average price of k-th of local administrative area's jth phase, ri(j) it is in bulk for i-th of brand P.O42.5 The market price of cement, ci(j) it is the weight of the brand,
2., according to the national and each region cement price index of each local administrative area's weight and average price weighted calculation, The basic mathematic model used during gauge index is Laplace formula：
In formula：wi(0) it is i-th of local administrative area's base period weighted value, piAnd p (1)i(0) it is respectively that i-th of region is administrative Area's report period and the P.O42.5 bulk cement average prices in base period；
Here local administrative area weighted value wi(0) can be because local administrative area be in the generation such as solid throwing, ready-mixed concrete yield Adjusted during large change, because general annual change is little, without often adjustment, only to brand weight ci(j) it is annual to carry out Adjust (new brand exits relatively more into old brand), (adjustment in every 5 years of China CPT base period weights is once).
As shown in Figure 2, the computational methods of cement consumer confidence index：
(1) prosperous selecting index：Consumer confidence index is showed by prosperous index comprehensive, when choosing prosperous index, it is necessary to Meet following principle：
1., embody the important information of industry, can directly reflect the information of some side of industry, observe an industry, it is main To be considered from supply and demand scale, management state, upstream and downstream and relevant industries, wherein supply and demand scale, management state are central factors；
2., statistics it is from the horse's mouth, complete, timely, for the prosperous change of reflection cement industry in time, use with monthly as frequency Rate calculates cement industry consumer confidence index；
According to the principle for embodying industry material information, according to profit, income, price, cost, supply, demand, foreign trade seven Individual aspect extracts the important indicator of cement industry.In addition to the important indicator of cement industry, also a lot of other indexs, this A little indexs contain the information of industry in various degree.In addition, can be to industry using the index of relevant industries or industry upstream and downstream Operation conditions be predicted or verify, these index no less importants.
3., cement industry boom important indicator：According to seven profit, income, price, cost, supply, demand, foreign trade sides Face extracts the important indicator of cement industry；
Table 1：The important indicator of cement industry
4., the prosperous alternative index of cement industry：Can be to the fortune of industry using the index of relevant industries or industry upstream and downstream Row situation is predicted or verifies,
Table 2：The alternative index of the cement industry degree of prosperity
(2) data extraction, the processing of index：Use and calculate cement industry consumer confidence index with monthly for frequency, to identify water The cyclic fluctuation of mud industry, it is necessary to the data volume of at least 4 years, cement industry economic Cycles Analysis use year-on-year growth rate round-robin method, Growth rate circulation be observe economic time series growth rate (with same month last year or with season than rate of change), analyze its fluctuation Regularity, seasonal adjustment is carried out to time series, and the fluctuation of long-term trend and repeat factor (TC) to growth rate sequence is carried out Analysis, and use X-12 multiplied model seasonal adjustment methods：
1., Growth Rate Calculation formula：
In formula：bi(t) it is index aiIn the year-on-year growth rate of t, ai(t) it is index aiIn the value of t, ai(t-12) For index aiIn the value at t-12 moment, index aiThe index started including code with A, V, F, R, after processing, name of code is corresponding For a, v, f, r；
2., seasonal adjustment (using Census Bureau of U.S. X-12ARMA programs)：Code is a, v, f, r index through seasonal adjustment Afterwards, code at, vt, ft, rt (rejecting seasonal factor and irregular factor), herein using the X-12ARMA in EVIEW 8.0 Program adjusts,
Table 3：The monthly important indicator of cement industry
Table 4：The monthly alternative index of cement industry
(3) determination of benchmark circulation：Prosperous benchmark cycle indicator using profit as industry, calculate profit and other important fingers Target coefficient correlation, and determine that cement price, income from sales, cement output, new dry process clinker capacity utilization ratio, real estate are opened Hair investment, cement and clinker outlet unit price are coincidence indicator,
1., determine benchmark circular wave index T (t)：
In formula：T (t) is in the basic circular wave index of t, ci(t) it is index ciIn the value of t,
wiFor index ciWeight ciThe index started including code with, vt, ft, rt；
2., the determination of weight use correlation coefficient process：
In formula：rijFor index ciWith index cjCoefficient correlation, weighted list can be calculated accordingly, further can calculating benchmark Circular wave index；
Table 5：The coefficient correlation of total profit and other prosperous important indicators
Table 6：The weighted list of coincident indicator
(4) classification of index：Using benchmark circular wave index as reference, to the important indicator extracting and treat and alternative Index is classified, and is divided into coincidence indicator, lagging indicator and leading indicators, the difference correlation when classification of cement boom index uses Method, K-L information Contents Methods, clustering procedure and peak valley method, finally the consistent situation in four kinds of methods make final judgement,
Table 7：The classification of cement boom index
Table 8：Final classification table
(5) synthesis and calculating of initial exponential：
Index synthesis circulates prosperous composite index number (The Composite Index, it is CI to write a Chinese character in simplified form) using growth rate and calculated Method, step are as follows：
1., calculate symmetrical rate of change：
Cij(t) be i-th of index in index group that type is j symmetrical rate of change
If Yij(t) there are zero or negative value, Cij(t)=Yij(t)-Yij(t-1)；
2., normalization factor is with standardizing symmetrical rate of change：
Normalization factor
Standardize symmetrical rate of change
7., seek the standardization average rate of change of each index group (weight determines according to VC Method)：
VC Method weight determines that formula is as follows：
Table 9：Each index weights
8., the parameter group internal standardization factor：
The average rate of change in normalized group, it is therefore an objective to make each group peak valley that there is comparativity：
Vj(t)=Rj(t)/Fj；
9. seek initial synthesis index
(6) base period and index replacement：From high point in 2011 to the low spot of 2012, then to steady in 2013 and The peak value of the fourth quater, can be considered a wheel circulate, thus using 3 years 2011~2013 years average level in advance, one Cause, lagging index adjusts (average value calculates according to above-mentioned initial exponential), base period horizontal as 2011~2013 average water It is flat, final index Ij' (t) formula are：
As shown in Figure 3, cement price index and the delivery system of consumer confidence index：
(1) selecting index of prosperity early warning index：10 warning indexs are chosen, wherein synchronous with Economic Climate fluctuation one Cause index to occupy the majority, and add a small number of lead and lag indexs.
Table 10：Warning index selects
Index name Pointer type
Single month total profit (hundred million yuan) Positive index
Cement monthly average price (yuan/ton) Positive index
Cement output (ten thousand tons) Positive index
New dry process clinker capacity utilization ratio % Positive index
Sales tax (%) Positive index
The newly-started area in house (ten thousand square metres) Positive index
The cement index of Shen ten thousand Positive index
Net account receivable Reverse index
Export amount of money：Cement and clinker (ten thousand dollars) Reverse index
From the point of view of the practice of economic situation monitoring early warning signaling system is established, about 10 warning indexs are typically chosen, its In the coincidence indicator synchronous with Economic Climate fluctuation occupy the majority.But due to the foundation of economic situation monitoring early warning signaling system be for Judgement current economical operation state, the main importance for considering economic indicator, therefore, be generally also added into it is a small number of in advance and Lagging indicator.
(2) determination of index boundary value and early warning index calculate：Pass through the minimum value, maximum, median of index series Determine the boundary value of each index, then with comprehensive grading calculate early warning index, grade average 27, as 100 points, Remaining comprehensive pre-warning index is calculated, comprehensive pre-warning exponential formula is as follows：
(3) lamp area was divided according to its value to the index of 2011~2013 years,
1., blue lamp region：
2., light blue lamp region：
3., green light region：
4., amber light region：
6., red light region：
Table 11：Index critical value determines
Described above is only the preferred embodiment of the present invention, and protection scope of the present invention is not limited merely to above-mentioned implementation Example, all technical schemes belonged under thinking of the present invention belong to protection scope of the present invention.It should be pointed out that for the art Those of ordinary skill for, some improvements and modifications without departing from the principles of the present invention, these improvements and modifications It should be regarded as protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (1)

  1. A kind of 1. method and its delivery system for calculating cement price and consumer confidence index, it is characterised in that：Its step is：
    1) computational methods of cement price index：
    (1) specification product are represented：P.042.5 bulk cement,
    (2) sample determines：Sample determines by the way of stratified sampling, focal investigation, typical investigation are combined,
    (3) data acquisition and adjustment：The price of collection is the producer price of P.042.5 bulk cement,
    (4) determination in base period：Selected 2009 are the base period, and base prices index is 100 points,
    (5) price index weight is with calculating：Cement price index takes two-stage weight：Local administrative area's weight and brand power Weight, local administrative area's weight is according to ready-mixed concrete consumption figure, investment in fixed assets, the determination of cement output COMPREHENSIVE CALCULATING, brand Weight calculates according to the brand vendor in the occupation rate of market of local administrative area,
    1., according to brand weight and each local administrative area's average price of brand product price weighted calculation：
    In formula：pk(j) it is the average price of k-th of local administrative area's phase, ri(j) it is i-th of brand P.042.5 bulk cement The market price, ci(j) it is the weight of the brand,
    2., according to the national and each region cement price index of each local administrative area's weight and average price weighted calculation, calculating The basic mathematic model used during index is Laplace formula：
    In formula：wi(0) it is i-th of local administrative area's base period weighted value, piAnd p (1)i(0) it is respectively i-th of local administrative area's report Announcement phase and the P.042.5 bulk cement average price in base period；
    2) computational methods of cement consumer confidence index：
    (1) prosperous selecting index：Consumer confidence index is showed by prosperous index comprehensive, when choosing prosperous index, it is necessary to meet Following principle：
    1., embody the important information of industry, can directly reflect the information of some side of industry, observe an industry, mainly from Supply and demand scale, management state, upstream and downstream and relevant industries are considered, and wherein supply and demand scale, management state are central factors；
    2., statistics it is from the horse's mouth, complete, timely, for the prosperous change of reflection cement industry in time, use with monthly as frequency meter Calculate cement industry consumer confidence index；
    3., cement industry boom important indicator：Carried according to seven profit, income, price, cost, supply, demand, foreign trade aspects Produce the important indicator of cement industry；
    4., the prosperous alternative index of cement industry：Operation shape that can be to industry using the index of relevant industries or industry upstream and downstream Condition is predicted or verifies,
    (2) data extraction, the processing of index：Use and calculate cement industry consumer confidence index with monthly for frequency, to identify cement row The cyclic fluctuation of industry is, it is necessary to which the data volume of at least 4 years, cement industry economic Cycles Analysis use year-on-year growth rate round-robin method, increased Rate circulation is to observe the growth rate of economic time series, analyzes the regularity of its fluctuation, and seasonal adjustment is carried out to time series, right The long-term trend of growth rate sequence and repeat factor TC fluctuation are analyzed, and use X-12 multiplied model seasonal adjustment methods：
    1., Growth Rate Calculation formula：
    In formula：bi(t) it is index aiIn the year-on-year growth rate of t, ai(t) it is index aiIn the value of t, ai(t-12) it is finger Mark aiIn the value at t-12 moment, index aiThe index started including code with A, V, F, R, after processing, name of code correspond to a, v、f、r；
    2., seasonal adjustment：Using Census Bureau of U.S. X-12ARMA programs：Code be a, v, f, r index after seasonal adjustment, generation Code is at, vt, ft, rt, is adjusted herein using the X-12ARMA programs in EVIEW 8.0,
    (3) determination of benchmark circulation：Prosperous benchmark cycle indicator using profit as industry, calculate profit and other important indicators Coefficient correlation, and determine that cement price, income from sales, cement output, new dry process clinker capacity utilization ratio, development of real estate are thrown Money, cement and clinker outlet unit price are coincidence indicator,
    1., determine benchmark circular wave index T (t)：
    In formula：T (t) is in the basic circular wave index of t, ci(t) it is index ciIn the value of t, wiFor index ci's Weight ciThe index started including code with, vt, ft, rt；
    2., the determination of weight use correlation coefficient process：
    In formula：rijFor index ciWith index cjCoefficient correlation, weighted list can be calculated accordingly, further can calculating benchmark circulation The index of oscillation；
    (4) classification of index：Using benchmark circular wave index as reference, to the important indicator extracted and treated and alternative index Classified, be divided into coincidence indicator, lagging indicator and leading indicators, the classification of cement boom index using STC, K-L information Contents Methods, clustering procedure and peak valley method, finally the consistent situation in four kinds of methods make final judgement,
    (5) synthesis and calculating of initial exponential：
    Index synthesis circulates prosperous composite index number CI computational methods using growth rate, and step is as follows：
    1., calculate symmetrical rate of change：
    Cij(t) be i-th of index in index group that type is j symmetrical rate of change
    <mrow> <msub> <mi>c</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mi>j</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>t</mi> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mo>=</mo> <mn>200</mn> <mo>&amp;times;</mo> <mfrac> <mrow> <msub> <mi>Y</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mi>j</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>t</mi> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mo>-</mo> <msub> <mi>Y</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mi>j</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>t</mi> <mo>-</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> </mrow> <mrow> <msub> <mi>Y</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mi>j</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>t</mi> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mo>+</mo> <msub> <mi>Y</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mi>j</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>t</mi> <mo>-</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> </mrow> </mfrac> <mo>,</mo> <mi>t</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>2</mn> <mo>,</mo> <mn>3...</mn> <mo>,</mo> </mrow>
    If Yij(t) there are zero or negative value, Cij(t)=Yij(t)-Yij(t-1)；
    2., normalization factor is with standardizing symmetrical rate of change：
    Normalization factor
    <mrow> <msub> <mi>A</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mi>j</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <mfrac> <mn>1</mn> <mrow> <mi>n</mi> <mo>-</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </mfrac> <msubsup> <mi>&amp;Sigma;</mi> <mrow> <mi>t</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>2</mn> </mrow> <mi>n</mi> </msubsup> <mo>|</mo> <msub> <mi>C</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mi>j</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>t</mi> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mo>|</mo> <mo>,</mo> </mrow>
    Standardize symmetrical rate of change
    <mrow> <msub> <mi>s</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mi>j</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>t</mi> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mo>=</mo> <mfrac> <mrow> <msub> <mi>C</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mi>j</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>t</mi> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> </mrow> <msub> <mi>A</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mi>j</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mfrac> <mo>;</mo> </mrow>
    3., seek the standardization average rate of change of each index group：Weight determines according to VC Method：
    <mrow> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mi>j</mi> </msub> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>t</mi> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mo>=</mo> <mfrac> <mrow> <msubsup> <mi>&amp;Sigma;</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> <msub> <mi>k</mi> <mi>j</mi> </msub> </msubsup> <msub> <mi>s</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mi>j</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>t</mi> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <msub> <mi>w</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mi>j</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mrow> <mrow> <msubsup> <mi>&amp;Sigma;</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> <msub> <mi>k</mi> <mi>j</mi> </msub> </msubsup> <msub> <mi>w</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mi>j</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mrow> </mfrac> <mo>,</mo> </mrow>
    VC Method weight determines that formula is as follows：
    <mrow> <msub> <mi>V</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <mfrac> <msub> <mi>&amp;sigma;</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> <msub> <mover> <mi>x</mi> <mo>&amp;OverBar;</mo> </mover> <mi>i</mi> </msub> </mfrac> </mrow>
    <mrow> <msub> <mi>w</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <mfrac> <msub> <mi>V</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> <mrow> <msubsup> <mi>&amp;Sigma;</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> <mi>n</mi> </msubsup> <msub> <mi>V</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> </mrow> </mfrac> <mo>;</mo> </mrow>
    4., the parameter group internal standardization factor：
    <mrow> <msub> <mi>F</mi> <mi>j</mi> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <mo>&amp;lsqb;</mo> <munderover> <mo>&amp;Sigma;</mo> <mrow> <mi>t</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>2</mn> </mrow> <mi>n</mi> </munderover> <mo>|</mo> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mi>j</mi> </msub> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>t</mi> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mo>|</mo> <mo>/</mo> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>n</mi> <mo>-</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mo>&amp;rsqb;</mo> <mo>/</mo> <mo>&amp;lsqb;</mo> <munderover> <mo>&amp;Sigma;</mo> <mrow> <mi>t</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>2</mn> </mrow> <mi>n</mi> </munderover> <mo>|</mo> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mn>2</mn> </msub> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>t</mi> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mo>|</mo> <mo>/</mo> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>n</mi> <mo>-</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mo>&amp;rsqb;</mo> </mrow>
    The average rate of change in normalized group, it is therefore an objective to make each group peak valley that there is comparativity：
    Vj(t)=Rj(t)/Fj；
    5., seek initial synthesis index
    <mrow> <msub> <mi>I</mi> <mi>j</mi> </msub> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>t</mi> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mo>=</mo> <msub> <mi>I</mi> <mi>j</mi> </msub> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>t</mi> <mo>-</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mo>&amp;times;</mo> <mfrac> <mrow> <mn>200</mn> <mo>+</mo> <msub> <mi>V</mi> <mi>j</mi> </msub> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>t</mi> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> </mrow> <mrow> <mn>200</mn> <mo>-</mo> <msub> <mi>V</mi> <mi>j</mi> </msub> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>t</mi> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> </mrow> </mfrac> <mo>,</mo> </mrow>
    (6) base period and index replacement：From high point in 2011 to the low spot of 2012, then to steady and four seasons of 2013 It one peak value of degree, can be considered that a wheel circulates, thus use the average level of 3 years 2011~2013 years to leading, consistent, stagnant Index adjusts afterwards, and average value calculates according to above-mentioned initial exponential, base period horizontal as 2011~2013 average level, finally Index Ij' (t) formula are：
    3) cement price index and the delivery system of consumer confidence index：
    (1) selecting index of prosperity early warning index：10 warning indexs are chosen, wherein the consistent finger synchronous with Economic Climate fluctuation Mark occupies the majority, and adds a small number of lead and lag indexs,
    (2) determination of index boundary value and early warning index calculate：Determined by the minimum value, maximum, median of index series The boundary value of each index, early warning index then is calculated with comprehensive grading, grade average 27, as 100 points, is calculated Remaining comprehensive pre-warning index, comprehensive pre-warning exponential formula are as follows：
    (3) lamp area was divided according to its value to the index of 2011~2013 years,
    1., blue lamp region：
    2., light blue lamp region：
    3., green light region：
    4., amber light region：
    5., red light region：
CN201610363129.8A 2016-05-27 2016-05-27 A kind of method and its delivery system for calculating cement price and consumer confidence index Pending CN107437193A (en)

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Cited By (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN109087120A (en) * 2018-06-14 2018-12-25 浙江捷贸通电子商务有限公司 For the data processing method and device of price, server
CN112328883A (en) * 2020-11-08 2021-02-05 浙江中建网络科技股份有限公司 Cement price one-key publishing system based on building material industry and implementation method thereof

Cited By (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN109087120A (en) * 2018-06-14 2018-12-25 浙江捷贸通电子商务有限公司 For the data processing method and device of price, server
CN112328883A (en) * 2020-11-08 2021-02-05 浙江中建网络科技股份有限公司 Cement price one-key publishing system based on building material industry and implementation method thereof

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Application publication date: 20171205