CN105741019A - Electric power prosperity early warning method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses an electric power prosperity early warning method. The electric power prosperity early warning method introduces prosperity analysis into electric power market analysis, carries out statistics and analysis on a relationship between electric quantity and each indicator of business environment, finds a leading indicator which has a causal relationship with the development change of an electric power market and stably keeps ahead of the change of the electric power market on an aspect of time sequence, and compiles the leading indicator into a prosperity leading indicator through a certain method. Through the change of the prosperity leading indicator, the turning point of future electric power market development can be predicated, the change amplitude of the electric power market is estimated, important basic information is provided for aspects including electric power construction, production and the like to carry out macroscopic readjustment and control and make a scientific decision so as to provide a quantitative indicator for the operation trend of the electric power market.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to power domain, be specifically related to a kind of electric power prosperity early warning method based on industrial chain segmentation.
Background technology
Boom is the comprehensive description of the one to object of study state of development, in order to the active degree of object of study to be described.It refers to the phenomenons such as the production increase that occurs in the surging stage of the cycle of repduction, business be active, the market boom, employment increase.This concept, widely used by various countries in economic analysis.Economic Cycles Analysis is a kind of economic cycle statistical analysis technique, utilize monthly or season economic statistics sequence data, analyze and judge that economic development is in the stage residing for periodic wave disorder of internal organs, find out the reason of prosperous state change, the effect that prediction economic development trend, checking and evaluation economic policy are implemented.
Power industry is the important foundation industry of national economy, and the development of other branchs of industry is played requisite supporting role.Go deep into thorough Electricity market analysis and have become as Utilities Electric Co.'s adaptation requirement of the market economy, the element task of guarantee company's investment repayment and raising effectiveness of operation, only according to electricity needs characteristic, demand structure, the corresponding development plan adjusting company and business plan, Cai Nengshi power grid enterprises establish oneself in an unassailable position in the market, try to achieve survival and development for a long time.
And in recent years, along with deepening constantly of Chinese Urbanization and process of industrialization, electricity consumption demand sharply changes, power industry experienced by temporary in 1998, and drug on the market, the critical shortage of 2003-2004 years, the supply and demand of 2006-2008 years are loose gradually, a series of change procedures such as supply and demand so far in 2009 is nervous.Along with the excelsior requirement of State Grid Corporation of China improves constantly; particularly in the global effect of current economic crisis but without the today disappeared completely, strengthen analyzing judging that economic form and the enhancing predictability of macro adjustments and controls, specific aim are particularly important of electricity market data.
Summary of the invention
The invention aims to the defect solving exist in prior art, it is provided that electricity market can be run tendency and provide quantizating index by one, thus carrying out macro adjustments and controls for the aspect such as power construction, production and science decision provides important Back ground Information.
In order to achieve the above object, the invention provides a kind of electric power prosperity early warning method, comprise the following steps:
(1) the choosing of index: classify according to the industrial chain of electricity market, is clustered by the upstream and downstream industry of selected industry and carries out classifying and selecting；
(2) primary election of index: by X-11 seasonal adjustment method, contrasts the index chosen in step (1) and reference index, it is determined that primary election index；
(3) primary election index screening: the primary election index that step (2) is obtained is screened, classified, it is thus achieved that relative to leading indicators group and the coincidence indicator group of reference index；
(4) electricity market synthesis economic index is built: adopt composite index number method according to the leading indicators group of step (3) gained and coincidence indicator group, calculate leading composite index number and coincident composite Index, build the comprehensive consumer confidence index of reflection electricity market cyclic swing；
(5) electric power prosperity early warning: the time according to the calculated advanced coincident composite Index of leading composite index number of step (4), predicts the alteration trend of same index in advance.
Wherein, reference index selects region electricity.
Step (2) middle finger target primary election process is: by X-11 seasonal adjustment method, reject and all refer to target seasonal effect in time series seasonal factor, trend-cyclical factor and irregular factor selected by step (1), sequence after carrying out X-11 seasonal adjustment with reference index contrasts, and consistent person is as primary election index；
Wherein, X-11 seasonal adjustment method specifically comprise the following steps that the first step, estimate trend；Second step, eliminates the trend in time series；3rd step, estimates seasonal factor；Repeat the first step to the 3rd step, finally determine seasonal effect in time series seasonal factor, trend-cyclical factor and irregular factor.
Primary election index screening method is by step (3): calculate the K-L quantity of information of primary election index, thus filtering out leading indicators group and coincidence indicator group.Wherein said K-L information computing process is: by carrying out being standardized after primary election index that contrast, that step (2) is determined is made directly standardization and moves processing with reference index, take minimum K-L information magnitude again；Described moving process is: from 0 phase, every time mobile 1 phase, and left and right was moved successively to n phase and-n phase；Each primary election index coprocessing 2n+1 time.The issue n of movement depends on the calculating of K-L quantity of information, until primary election index gained K-L quantity of information reaches minimum K-L information magnitude；And the issue n of movement meets left and right at least each movement 10 phase, i.e. | n | >=10.
The present invention has the advantage that the present invention is by studying with method the Early-warning Model in suitable power market is theoretical compared to existing technology, including the classification of index, the screening technique of index, model preparation method, set up the warning index storehouse being applicable to electricity market, build electric power Early-warning Model, form early warning index, carry out early warning in conjunction with early warning month and the development that early warning index is electricity market.Economic Cycles Analysis is incorporated in Electricity market analysis by the present invention, by the relation between statistics and analysis electricity and management environment indices, find out and have cause effect relation with Power Market Development change and in sequential, stably lead over the leading indicators of electricity market change, and be compiled into prosperous beforehand index by certain method.Change by prosperous beforehand index, the turning point of future electrical energy market development can be predicted, estimate the amplitude that electricity market changes, carry out, for the aspect such as power construction, production, the Back ground Information that macro adjustments and controls and science decision provide important, and then run tendency for electricity market quantizating index is provided.
Detailed description of the invention
Below in conjunction with specific embodiment, the present invention is described in detail.
Name Resolution mentioned in literary composition is as follows:
1, K-L information Contents Method
K-L information Contents Method is a kind of method that the fitting degree to the distribution of index general morphology is evaluated.If the probability distribution of the stochastic variable of a benchmark is p=[p1,…,pi,…pm], wherein piFor event wiThe probability occurred, if the probability distribution of another stochastic variable is classified as q=[q1,…,qi,qm], wherein qiFor event wiThe probability occurred.Reference index is done standardization so that index and be unit 1, then
If x={x1,x2,…,xnFor being chosen index, also do standardization, the sequence after process is designated as q, then
Definition:
For the Distribution of A Sequence q K-L quantity of information about Distribution of A Sequence p.
2, the preparation method (i.e. the structure of electricity market synthesis economic index) of consumer confidence index
By the transmission of multi-field cycle events and diffusion, it is possible to embody the process of power industry economic cycle complexity trend.
2.1, method of diffusion index
Diffusion index DI (DiffusionIndex) is defined as the index number being in expansion state and accounts for the percentage ratio of selected index sum.Namely
Diffusion index also has simple dividing with weighting, and the DI that above formula calculates, for simple diffusion index.Owing to the effect in overall of each index varies in size, DI to be made representative, take objective and suitable weight to be calculated better.
2.2, composite index number method
Composite index number CI (CompositeIndex), it is according to sequence loops degree of fluctuation each in similar index, consider that the importance weighting (not weighting sometimes) in macroeconomy activity of each sequence is comprehensively worked out, to reflect the index of macroeconomy circular wave degree.It can be used for judging circulation turning point, again can from the degree of reflection circular wave amount.It is similar to DI method in step that the early warning signal provided by CI carries out early warning, the difference is that turning point judge in principle.
Embodiment 1
1, electric power boom index group is set up
To certain electric power saving market, classify according to industrial chain, by clustering the index carrying out the every profession and trade shown in classifying and selecting:
(1) people's livelihood index
Economize country's fixed asset investment
China railway is invested
Whole nation infrastructure construction investment
Whole nation washing machine yield
Whole nation colour TV yield
Whole nation electric refrigerator yield
(2) steel industry
China railway lorry yield
Economize crude steel yield
Economize pig iron yield
Economize steel yield
Whole nation iron ore yield
Economize Metal Cutting Machine Tool yield
Economize generating equipment yield
Whole nation generating equipment yield
Economize auto output
Whole nation auto output
The civilian steel ship output in the whole nation
(3) cement industry
Economize cement output
Economize cement clinker
Economize Marketable Housing Area Sold
Area is sold in national commodity room
Economize the newly-started area of the commercial house
The newly-started area in national commodity room
Whole nation coke output
Economize coke output
National cement concrete pressure pipe yield
Economize cement concrete manometer tube yield
National cement concurrent yield
Economize cement concrete electric pole yield
National cement concrete yield
Economize cement concrete yield
(4) coal industry
Economize large shape yield
Economize reinforcing bar yield
Economize welded pipe yield
Economize output wire
Economize fertilizer production
Economize pesticide yield
Economize safety glass yield
Economize plate glass
Economize graphite yield and economize the former drug prods of chemical drugs
(5) reference index
Chosen area electricity carries out subsequent analysis as reference index.
2, the primary election of index
By X-11 seasonal adjustment method, based on three stage adjustment programmes (first step, the estimation trend of ratio-to-moving-average method；Second step, eliminates the trend in time series；3rd step, estimate seasonal factor), by to sequence detection repeatedly, reject and all refer to target seasonal effect in time series seasonal factor, trend-cyclical factor and irregular factor selected by step (1), sequence after carrying out X-11 seasonal adjustment with reference index contrasts, and consistent person is as primary election index；)
3, primary election index screening
Calculate the K-L quantity of information of primary election index, thus filtering out leading indicators group and coincidence indicator group.
Tradition K-L information Contents Method there will be minimum K-L quantity of information instability, the problems such as negative value easily occurs in K-L quantity of information, the present invention have modified traditional computational methods, first by carrying out being standardized after primary election index that contrast, that step (2) is determined is made directly standardization and moves processing with reference index, minimum K-L information magnitude is taken again；Described moving process is: from 0 phase, every time mobile 1 phase, and left and right was moved successively to n phase and-n phase；Each primary election index coprocessing 2n+1 time.The issue n of movement depends on the calculating of K-L quantity of information, until primary election index gained K-L quantity of information reaches minimum K-L information magnitude；And the issue n of movement meets left and right at least each movement 10 phase, i.e. | n | >=10.Result of calculation is table 1 below such as:
The K-L information Contents Method result of calculation of table 1 primary election index
Table 2 electricity market boom pre-selective idex
4, the structure of electricity market synthesis economic index:
Make peace in advance prosperous index group according to selected one, adopt the computational methods of the general in the world composite index number Fa Ji US Department of Commerce, build the comprehensive consumer confidence index reflecting electricity market cyclic swing, table 3 specific as follows:
The comprehensive consumer confidence index weight of table 3 electricity market is constituted
The leading composite index number, the coincident composite Index that calculate are as shown in table 4:
Table 4 is in advance and coincident composite Index result of calculation
For being accurately positioned the relation of leading composite index number and coincident composite Index, by calculated leading, coincident composite Index K-L quantity of information checking, obtain result such as table 5 below:
Table 5 is in advance and coincident composite Index K-L result of calculation
| Month | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | -1 | -2 |
| K-L | 1.72 | 1.85 | 2.04 | 2.24 | 2.34 | 2.33 | 2.23 | 2.11 | 2.05 | 2.05 | 2.12 | 1.69 | 1.67 |
| Month | -3 | -4 | -5 | -6 | -7 | -8 | -9 | -10 | -11 | -12 | -13 | -14 | |
| K-L | 1.62 | 1.52 | 1.40 | 1.18 | 0.98 | 0.81 | 0.66 | 0.54 | 0.45 | 0.40 | 0.35 | 0.30 |
From upper table 5, leading composite index number is ahead of coincident composite Index 14 months, and its fluctuation predicts the alteration trend of coincidence indicator in advance.By the relation between statistics and analysis electricity and indices, find out and have cause effect relation with Power Market Development change and in sequential, stably lead over the leading indicators of electricity market change, and be compiled into prosperous beforehand index by certain method.Change by prosperous beforehand index, it is possible to the turning point of prediction future electrical energy market development, estimates the amplitude that electricity market changes, thus it is speculated that the trend of Power Market Development.Therefore, electricity market economic Cycles Analysis contributes to instructing region electric power Business Process System, and precognition electric power relevant industries tendency also effectively increases and decreases volume change according to consumer confidence index；Strengthening the stability of power industry, the power industry that gives warning in advance tendency changes, and effectively instructs the manufacture of power equipment and produces nargin.
Above the better embodiment of this patent is explained in detail, but this patent is not limited to above-mentioned embodiment, in the ken that one skilled in the relevant art possesses, it is also possible to make a variety of changes under the premise without departing from this patent objective.
Claims (6)
1. an electric power prosperity early warning method, it is characterised in that: comprise the following steps:
(1) the choosing of index: classify according to the industrial chain of electricity market, carry out classifying and selecting by the upstream and downstream industry of selected industry；
(2) primary election of index: by X-11 seasonal adjustment method, contrasts the index chosen in step (1) and reference index, it is determined that primary election index；
(3) primary election index screening: the primary election index that step (2) is obtained is screened, classified, it is thus achieved that relative to leading indicators group and the coincidence indicator group of reference index；
(4) electricity market synthesis economic index is built: adopt composite index number method according to the leading indicators group of step (3) gained and coincidence indicator group, calculate leading composite index number and coincident composite Index, build the comprehensive consumer confidence index of reflection electricity market cyclic swing；
(5) electric power prosperity early warning: the time according to the calculated advanced coincident composite Index of leading composite index number of step (4), predicts the alteration trend of same index in advance.
2. electric power prosperity early warning method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: described reference index selects region electricity.
3. electric power prosperity early warning method according to claim 1 and 2, it is characterized in that: described step (2) middle finger target primary election process is: by X-11 seasonal adjustment method, reject and all refer to target seasonal effect in time series seasonal factor, trend-cyclical factor and irregular factor selected by step (1), sequence after carrying out X-11 seasonal adjustment with reference index contrasts,, consistent person is as primary election index.
4. electric power prosperity early warning method according to claim 3, it is characterised in that: described X-11 seasonal adjustment method specifically comprise the following steps that the first step, estimate trend；Second step, eliminates the trend in time series；3rd step, estimates seasonal factor；Repeat the first step to the 3rd step, finally determine seasonal effect in time series seasonal factor, trend-cyclical factor and irregular factor.
5. electric power prosperity early warning method according to claim 1 and 2, it is characterised in that: primary election index classification method is by described step (3): calculate the K-L quantity of information of primary election index, thus filtering out leading indicators group and coincidence indicator group.
6. electric power prosperity early warning method according to claim 5, it is characterized in that: described K-L information computing process is: by carrying out being standardized again after primary election index that contrast, that step (2) is determined is made directly standardization and moves processing with reference index, take minimum K-L information magnitude；Described moving process is: from 0 phase, every time mobile 1 phase, and left and right was moved successively to n phase and-n phase；Each primary election index coprocessing 2n+1 time, until primary election index gained K-L quantity of information reaches minimum K-L information magnitude；Described n meets | n | >=10.
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Cited By (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108287867A (en) * | 2017-12-19 | 2018-07-17 | 顺丰科技有限公司 | Industrial Cycle index generation method, device, equipment and its storage medium |
| CN109559160A (en) * | 2018-11-14 | 2019-04-02 | 浙江海洋大学 | A kind of calculation method of the shipping degree of prosperity |
| CN112116139A (en) * | 2020-09-03 | 2020-12-22 | 国网经济技术研究院有限公司 | Power demand prediction method and system |
| CN112949897A (en) * | 2020-12-22 | 2021-06-11 | 浙江华云信息科技有限公司 | Industry electricity market prosperity index analysis method based on three-point prediction exploration method |
-
2016
- 2016-01-22 CN CN201610046487.6A patent/CN105741019A/en active Pending
Cited By (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108287867A (en) * | 2017-12-19 | 2018-07-17 | 顺丰科技有限公司 | Industrial Cycle index generation method, device, equipment and its storage medium |
| CN108287867B (en) * | 2017-12-19 | 2021-11-23 | 顺丰科技有限公司 | Industry prosperity index generation method, device, equipment and storage medium thereof |
| CN109559160A (en) * | 2018-11-14 | 2019-04-02 | 浙江海洋大学 | A kind of calculation method of the shipping degree of prosperity |
| CN112116139A (en) * | 2020-09-03 | 2020-12-22 | 国网经济技术研究院有限公司 | Power demand prediction method and system |
| CN112949897A (en) * | 2020-12-22 | 2021-06-11 | 浙江华云信息科技有限公司 | Industry electricity market prosperity index analysis method based on three-point prediction exploration method |
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