CN107358307A - A kind of power grid enterprises investment budgey method under multi-constraint condition based on electricity sales amount prediction - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a power grid enterprise investment budget calculation method under multi-constraint conditions based on electricity sales forecast, which relates to the field of enterprise investment budget research. The investment budget under the asset-liability ratio constraint and take the minimum value among the three to determine the investment budget of the power grid enterprise. The invention fully considers various constraint conditions, is more scientific and reasonable, and based on the gray prediction model, the result is more accurate.

Description

A Power Grid Enterprise Investment Budget Based on Power Sales Forecast under Multiple Constraints method

【Technical field】

The invention relates to the research field of enterprise investment budget, in particular to a method for measuring and calculating the investment budget of power grid enterprises under the constraints of electricity sales forecast.

【Background technique】

With the steady development of my country's national economy and the improvement of people's living standards year by year, the whole society's demand for electricity is increasing day by day, and the investment scale of power grid is also increasing. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, compared with the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan", the investment in fixed assets completed by electric power enterprises has doubled, and the total assets have achieved leapfrog development. It is expected that during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, investment in fixed assets will remain at a relatively high level.

With the deepening of power industry reform, investment decision-making is gradually shifting to benefit-oriented. Estimating the investment budget of power grid enterprises can provide a reference for the formulation of capital investment budget, meet the theoretical demands of grid industry investment decision-making, and meet the transformation of power investment mode from "extensive expansion" to benefit-oriented "connotative improvement", and It can provide an effective reference for relevant investment decision-making analysis in other industries.

At present, there are few researches on the investment budget of power grid enterprises themselves. In the existing technology, theories such as financial management and technical economy have been used, and concepts such as return on investment and operation coefficient have been introduced to construct a quantitative model of investment budget of power grid enterprises; The calculation model of power grid investment limited by debt ratio; foreign investment budget analysis and economic and technical evaluation mainly focus on engineering technical issues such as capital integration and financing in the power market, risk control, and power supply reliability.

In fact, the investment budget is constrained by many factors, and the relationship is not linear. However, most of the above studies focus on investment budget under single constraint conditions, and lack of research on investment budget under multiple constraint conditions. Therefore, it is necessary to quantitatively evaluate the future investment budget of power grid enterprises under different constraints.

【Content of invention】

Aiming at the problems existing in the prior art, the present invention provides a grid enterprise investment budgeting method based on electricity sales forecast under multi-constraint conditions. Based on the cost, using the cash flow identity as a means, under the constraints of the target profit and the target asset-liability ratio, the investment budget of the power grid enterprise is calculated, which provides a decision-making basis for the power grid enterprise to reasonably determine the investment scale and improve investment efficiency.

The present invention adopts the following technical scheme: a grid enterprise investment budgeting method based on electricity sales forecast under multiple constraint conditions, and the grid enterprise investment budget method under multiple constraint conditions based on electricity sales forecast includes steps:

Step 1. According to the original data of electricity sales of the target grid enterprise, the predicted value of electricity sales in the next year is obtained, and the prediction is made based on the gray forecasting model GM(1,1);

Step 2: Calculate the first investment budget LA 1 of the target enterprise under normal constraints according to the predicted value of electricity sales obtained in Step ₁ ;

Step 3: Calculate the second investment budget LA ₂ of the target enterprise under the target profit constraint according to the predicted value of electricity sales obtained in the step 1;

Step 4: Calculate the third investment budget LA ₃ of the target enterprise under the constraint of the target asset-liability ratio according to the predicted value of electricity sales obtained in the step 1;

Step 5: Select the minimum value among the first investment budget LA ₁ , the second investment budget LA ₂ and the third investment budget LA ₃ to be the investment budget of the target enterprise for the next year.

Further, said step one includes:

Sub-step 1, list the original data Q ⁽⁰⁾ of electricity sales of the target grid enterprise = {Q ⁽⁰⁾ (1), Q ⁽⁰⁾ (2), ..., Q ⁽⁰⁾ (k)}, where The value range of k is a positive integer, and the first-order accumulation is carried out to obtain the accumulation sequence Q ⁽¹⁾ = {Q ⁽¹⁾ (1), Q ⁽¹⁾ (2), ..., Q ⁽¹⁾ (k)} ,in, The value range of k is a positive integer, and the accumulated generation sequence Q ⁽¹⁾ satisfies formula one

Sub-step two, the accumulation generated sequence Q ⁽¹⁾ and formula two combine to get where a and u are the parameters in the equation, is the obtained parameter value;

In sub-step 2, since the accumulative generated sequence Q ⁽¹⁾ has an exponential growth law, and the solution of the first-order differential equation is a solution in the form of exponential growth, it is considered that the sequence Q ⁽¹⁾ satisfies the following first-order linear differential equation model, namely Formula 1, according to the definition of derivative, if expressed in discrete form, the differential term of this differential equation can be written as: Among them, the value of Q ⁽¹⁾ can only take the mean value of time k and k+1, namely Compare the value of Q ⁽¹⁾ with substitute In, can launch Rewritten into matrix form is formula 2.

Sub-step three, the parameter value obtained in the sub-step two Combined with Equation 1, Equation 3 is obtained Wherein, the value range of k is a positive integer, and Q ⁽⁰⁾ (k+1) in the third sub-step is the predicted value of electricity sales of the target enterprise in the next year.

In sub-step three, the parameter value obtained in the sub-step two Substitute into formula 1 to get the equation Solving the equation gives Equation 4 Among them, the value range of k is a positive integer. Formula 4 is the time response function of the gray forecasting model GM(1,1), and then formula 4 is accumulated and reduced to obtain formula 3. Formula 3 is the gray prediction model of the original data sequence Q ⁽⁰⁾ of electricity sales in the past several years.

Further, said step two includes:

Sub-step 1, calculate profit before interest and taxes in, is the operating profit for the year, For the financial expenses for the current year, is the capitalized interest of the current year, Q ⁽⁰⁾ (k+1) is the electricity sales in the next year, Δp is the purchase price difference, A _zj is the scale of depreciable assets, R _zc is the growth rate of asset scale, R _zj is the comprehensive depreciation rate;

Sub-step 2: Calculate the loan interest capitalization rate

Sub-step 3: Calculate depreciation expense F _rz =A _zj ×(1+R _zc /2)×R _zj ;

Sub-step 4: Calculate the change in working capital ΔA _yy = ΔA _ld -ΔD _ld , where ΔA _ld is the change in current assets, and ΔD _ld is the change in current liabilities;

Sub-step 5: Calculate the balance of interest-bearing liabilities D ⁱ _dx1 ＝D ^i-1 _dx +(D ^i-1 +E ^i-1 )×R _zc ×R _zcfz under ordinary constraints, where D ^i-1 _dx is the previous Annual balance of interest-bearing liabilities, D ^i-1 is the current year's liabilities, E ^i-1 is the current year's owner's equity, R _zcfz is the asset-liability ratio;

Sub-step 6: Calculate the expensed interest expense F _lx1 = F _rz ×(1-R _zbh )×D ⁱ _dx1 under common constraints, where F _rz is the average financing cost;

Sub-step 7: Calculate the net cash flow OCF ₁ from operating activities under common constraints =(W _xsq -F _lx1 )×(1-R _IT )+F _rz -ΔA _yy +F _lx1 +S _jz -S _gy -S _tz , where R _IT is the income tax rate, S _jz is the asset impairment loss, S _gy is the gain from changes in fair value, and S _tz is the investment income;

Sub-step 8: Calculating cash inflows from financing activities under common constraints Among them, CI _yh is the net cash inflow of user projects, S _sj is the investment income handed over, Equity capital inflow for the year, Increase in equity capital inflows for the next year;

Sub-step 9: Calculating cash inflows from investment activities under common constraints

Sub-step ten: Calculate the first investment budget LA ₁ of the target enterprise under common constraints,

Among them, ΔMCR ₁ is the change of the minimum safety reserve amount under ordinary constraints.

Further, said step three includes:

Sub-step 1: Calculate the balance of interest-bearing liabilities under the target profit constraint D ⁱ _{dx2 =(W xsq -W ys} )/[F _rz ×(1-R _zbh )], where W _ys is the constraint value of the total profit;

Sub-step 2: Calculate the expensed interest expense F _lx2 ＝D ⁱ _dx2 ×F _rz ×(1-R _zbh ) under the target profit constraint;

Sub-step 3: Calculate the net cash flow generated by operating activities under the target profit constraint

OCF ₂ =(W _xsq -F _lx2 )×(1-R _IT )+F _rz -ΔA _yy +F _lx2 +S _jz -S _gy -S _tz ;

Sub-step 4: Calculate the net cash flow generated by financing activities under the target profit constraint

Sub-step five: Calculate the cash inflow of investment activities under the target profit constraint

Sub-step 6: Calculate the second investment budget LA ₂ of the target enterprise under the target profit constraint,

Among them, ΔMCR ₂ is the change of the minimum safety reserve under the target profit constraint.

Calculate the partial derivative of the constraint value W _ys of the second investment budget LA ₂ with respect to the total profit:

It can be seen that the derivative function is always negative, that is, the profit constraint value is negatively correlated with the investment budget, that is to say, the higher the constraint value of the total profit, the lower the second investment budget LA ₂ of the target power grid enterprise under the target profit constraint .

Further, said step four includes:

Sub-step 1: Calculate the sum of the net cash flow OCF ₃ generated by operating activities under the asset-liability ratio constraint and the net cash flow FCF ₃ generated by financing activities under the asset-liability ratio constraint,

Among them, the total amount of equity in the previous period is E ^i-1 , the transfer amount of donated assets is A _sz , and the interest-bearing debt ratio is R _dxfz ;

Sub-step 2: Calculate the cash inflow of investment activities under the asset-liability ratio constraint

Sub-step 3: Calculate the third investment budget LA ₃ of the target enterprise under the constraint of asset-liability ratio,

Among them, ΔMCR ₃ is the change of the minimum safety reserve amount under the constraint of asset load ratio.

Derivation of the third investment capability LA ₃ with respect to the asset-liability ratio R _zcfz :

It can be seen that the derivative function is always positive, that is, the asset-liability ratio constraint value is positively correlated with the investment budget, that is to say, the higher the asset-liability ratio constraint value, the third investment LA ₃ of the target power grid enterprise under the asset-liability ratio constraint The higher the budget.

Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following advantages and beneficial effects:

(1) The present invention fully considers multiple constraint conditions. After measuring and calculating the investment budgets of the three calibers of common constraints, target asset-liability ratio constraints, and target profit constraints respectively, the investment budget under the constraints of the three is determined according to the minimum principle, and more scientifically reasonable.

(2) The present invention is based on the gray forecasting model, based on the forecasted income, forecasted cost and forecasted expense obtained from the electricity sales forecast in the coming year, which fully guarantees the accuracy of the calculation results.

【detailed description】

The technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention are explained and described below, but the following embodiments are only preferred embodiments of the present invention, not all of them. Based on the examples in the implementation manner, other examples obtained by those skilled in the art without making creative efforts all belong to the protection scope of the present invention.

The invention provides a grid enterprise investment budgeting method under multiple constraint conditions based on electricity sales forecast. The grid enterprise investment budgeting method under the multi-constraint conditions based on electricity sales forecast includes steps:

Step 1. According to the original data of electricity sales of the target grid enterprise, the predicted value of electricity sales in the next year is obtained, and the prediction is made based on the gray forecasting model GM(1,1);

Step 2: Calculate the first investment budget LA 1 of the target enterprise under normal constraints according to the predicted value of electricity sales obtained in Step ₁ ;

Step 3: Calculate the second investment budget LA ₂ of the target enterprise under the target profit constraint according to the predicted value of electricity sales obtained in the step 1;

Step 4: Calculate the third investment budget LA ₃ of the target enterprise under the constraint of the target asset-liability ratio according to the predicted value of electricity sales obtained in the step 1;

Step 5: Select the minimum value among the first investment budget LA ₁ , the second investment budget LA ₂ and the third investment budget LA ₃ to be the investment budget of the target enterprise for the next year.

Further, said step one includes:

Sub-step 1, list the original data Q ⁽⁰⁾ of electricity sales of the target grid enterprise = {Q ⁽⁰⁾ (1), Q ⁽⁰⁾ (2), ..., Q ⁽⁰⁾ (k)}, where The value range of k is a positive integer, and the first-order accumulation is carried out to obtain the accumulation sequence Q ⁽¹⁾ = {Q ⁽¹⁾ (1), Q ⁽¹⁾ (2), ..., Q ⁽¹⁾ (k)} ,in, The value range of k is a positive integer, and the accumulated generation sequence Q ⁽¹⁾ satisfies formula one

Sub-step two, the accumulation generated sequence Q ⁽¹⁾ and formula two combine to get where a and u are the parameters in the equation, is the obtained parameter value;

In sub-step 2, since the accumulative generated sequence Q ⁽¹⁾ has an exponential growth law, and the solution of the first-order differential equation is a solution in the form of exponential growth, it is considered that the sequence Q ⁽¹⁾ satisfies the following first-order linear differential equation model, namely Formula 1, according to the definition of derivative, if expressed in discrete form, the differential term of this differential equation can be written as: Among them, the value of Q ⁽¹⁾ can only take the mean value of time k and k+1, namely Compare the value of Q ⁽¹⁾ with substitute In, can launch Rewritten into matrix form is formula 2.

Sub-step three, the parameter value obtained in the sub-step two Combined with Equation 1, Equation 3 is obtained Wherein, the value range of k is a positive integer, and Q ⁽⁰⁾ (k+1) in the third sub-step is the predicted value of electricity sales of the target enterprise in the next year.

In sub-step three, the parameter value obtained in the sub-step two Substitute into formula 1 to get the equation Solving the equation gives Equation 4 Among them, the value range of k is a positive integer. Formula 4 is the time response function of the gray forecasting model GM(1,1), and then formula 4 is accumulated and reduced to obtain formula 3. Formula 3 is the gray prediction model of the original data sequence Q ⁽⁰⁾ of electricity sales in the past several years.

Further, said step two includes:

Sub-step 1, calculate profit before interest and taxes in, is the operating profit for the year, For the financial expenses for the current year, is the capitalized interest of the current year, Q ⁽⁰⁾ (k+1) is the electricity sales in the next year, Δp is the purchase price difference, A _zj is the scale of depreciable assets, R _zc is the growth rate of asset scale, R _zj is the comprehensive depreciation rate;

Sub-step 2: Calculate the loan interest capitalization rate

Sub-step 3: Calculate depreciation expense F _rz =A _zj ×(1+R _zc /2)×R _zj ;

Sub-step 4: Calculate the change in working capital ΔA _yy = ΔA _ld -ΔD _ld , where ΔA _ld is the change in current assets, and ΔD _ld is the change in current liabilities;

Sub-step 5: Calculate the balance of interest-bearing liabilities D ⁱ _dx1 ＝D ^i-1 _dx +(D ^i-1 +E ^i-1 )×R _zc ×R _zcfz under ordinary constraints, where D ^i-1 _dx is the previous Annual balance of interest-bearing liabilities, D ^i-1 is the current year's liabilities, E ^i-1 is the current year's owner's equity, R _zcfz is the asset-liability ratio;

Sub-step 6: Calculate the expensed interest expense F _lx1 = F _rz ×(1-R _zbh )×D ⁱ _dx1 under common constraints, where F _rz is the average financing cost;

Sub-step 7: Calculate the net cash flow OCF ₁ from operating activities under common constraints =(W _xsq -F _lx1 )×(1-R _IT )+F _rz -ΔA _yy +F _lx1 +S _jz -S _gy -S _tz , where R _IT is the income tax rate, S _jz is the asset impairment loss, S _gy is the gain from changes in fair value, and S _tz is the investment income;

Sub-step 8: Calculating cash inflows from financing activities under common constraints Among them, CI _yh is the net cash inflow of user projects, S _sj is the investment income handed over, Equity capital inflow for the year, Increase in equity capital inflows for the next year;

Sub-step 9: Calculating cash inflows from investment activities under common constraints

Sub-step ten: Calculate the first investment budget LA ₁ of the target enterprise under common constraints,

Among them, ΔMCR ₁ is the change of the minimum safety reserve amount under ordinary constraints.

Further, said step three includes:

Sub-step 1: Calculate the balance of interest-bearing liabilities under the target profit constraint D ⁱ _{dx2 =(W xsq -W ys} )/[F _rz ×(1-R _zbh )], where W _ys is the constraint value of the total profit;

Sub-step 2: Calculate the expensed interest expense F _lx2 ＝D ⁱ _dx2 ×F _rz ×(1-R _zbh ) under the target profit constraint;

Sub-step 3: Calculate the net cash flow generated by operating activities under the target profit constraint OCF ₂ ＝(W _xsq -F _lx2 )×(1-R _IT )+F _rz -ΔA _yy +F _lx2 +S _jz -S _gy - S _tz ;

Sub-step 4: Calculate the net cash flow generated by financing activities under the target profit constraint

Sub-step five: Calculate the cash inflow of investment activities under the target profit constraint

Sub-step 6: Calculate the second investment budget LA ₂ of the target enterprise under the target profit constraint,

Among them, ΔMCR ₂ is the change of the minimum safety reserve under the target profit constraint.

Calculate the partial derivative of the constraint value W _ys of the second investment budget LA ₂ with respect to the total profit:

It can be seen that the derivative function is always negative, that is, the profit constraint value is negatively correlated with the investment budget, that is to say, the higher the constraint value of the total profit, the lower the second investment budget LA ₂ of the target power grid enterprise under the target profit constraint .

Further, said step four includes:

Sub-step 1: Calculate the sum of the net cash flow OCF ₃ generated by operating activities under the asset-liability ratio constraint and the net cash flow FCF ₃ generated by financing activities under the asset-liability ratio constraint,

Among them, the total amount of equity in the previous period is E ^i-1 , the transfer amount of donated assets is A _sz , and the interest-bearing debt ratio is R _dxfz ;

Sub-step 2: Calculate the cash inflow of investment activities under the asset-liability ratio constraint

Sub-step 3: Calculate the third investment budget LA ₃ of the target enterprise under the constraint of asset-liability ratio,

Among them, ΔMCR ₃ is the change of the minimum safety reserve amount under the constraint of asset load ratio.

Derivation of the third investment capability LA ₃ with respect to the asset-liability ratio R _zcfz :

It can be seen that the derivative function is always positive, that is, the asset-liability ratio constraint value is positively correlated with the investment budget, that is to say, the higher the asset-liability ratio constraint value, the third investment LA ₃ of the target power grid enterprise under the asset-liability ratio constraint The higher the budget.

In order to further illustrate the method provided by the present invention, according to the operating data of a power grid enterprise, the investment capacity of the enterprise is calculated.

Step 1: The historical data of annual electricity sales are shown in Table 1, and the gray forecasting technique is used to predict the electricity sales of the power grid enterprise. First, the raw data is accumulated and generated:

Table 1 Raw data accumulation table

Second, calculate the parameter values of the differential equation. According to the linear equation formula 2, calculate the parameters of the differential equation value of:

Subsequently, the GM(1,1) model is established, and after substituting the parameter values, the gray prediction model of the cumulative sequence is obtained: Q ⁽⁰⁾ (k+1)=1457.04e ^0.0738k .

Finally, based on the gray forecasting model of the accumulated series, it is predicted that the company's electricity sales forecast value in 2017 is 365.03×104KW·h.

Step 2: Under normal constraints, the financial statement data of the enterprise are shown in Table 2:

Table 2 Input parameters Table 1

According to the formula in step 2, the intermediate parameters such as profit before interest and taxes under ordinary constraints, loan interest capitalization rate, and depreciation expenses can be calculated respectively, and the summary is shown in Table 3:

Table 3 Intermediate parameters Table 1

Further, the net cash flow generated by operating activities, the net cash flow generated by financing activities, the cash inflow of investment activities, and the investment budget of power grid enterprises can be calculated separately under the general constraints. The results are shown in Table 4:

Table 4 Calculation results Table 1

Step 3: Under the target profit constraint, according to the formula in Step 3, the balance of interest-bearing liabilities and expensed interest expenses under the target profit constraint can be calculated respectively, as shown in Table 5:

Table 5 Intermediate parameter table 2

Further, the net cash flow generated by operating activities under the target profit constraint, the net cash flow generated by financing activities, the cash inflow of investment activities, and the grid enterprise investment budget under the target profit constraint can be calculated separately. The results are shown in Table 6:

Table 6 Calculation results Table 2

Step 4: Under the asset-liability ratio constraint, the input parameters are as follows:

Table 7 Input parameters Table 3

According to the formula in step 4, the net cash flow generated by operating activities and financing activities under the constraint of asset-liability ratio, the cash inflow of investment activities and the investment budget of power grid enterprises under the constraint of asset-liability ratio can be calculated respectively. The results are shown in Table 8:

Table 8 Calculation results Table 3

Step 5: According to the above steps, calculate the investment budget based on the three constraints of general constraints, target profit constraints, and asset-liability ratio constraints, and finally determine the investment budget under the constraints of the three constraints based on the minimum principle. In this example, the power grid The investment capacity of the enterprise is 5,396,230,000 yuan, and the calculation is stopped.

In summary, the present invention has the following advantages and beneficial effects:

(1) The present invention fully considers multiple constraint conditions. After measuring and calculating the investment budgets of the three calibers of common constraints, target asset-liability ratio constraints, and target profit constraints respectively, the investment budget under the constraints of the three is determined according to the minimum principle, and more scientifically reasonable.

(2) The present invention is based on the gray forecasting model, based on the forecasted income, forecasted cost and forecasted expense obtained from the electricity sales forecast in the coming year, which fully guarantees the accuracy of the calculation results.

The above description is only a specific embodiment of the present invention, but the protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto. Those skilled in the art should understand that the present invention includes but is not limited to the content described in the above specific embodiment. Any modifications that do not depart from the functional and structural principles of the present invention will be included in the scope of the claims.

Claims (5)

1. A power grid enterprise investment budgeting method under multiple constraint conditions based on power sale amount prediction is characterized by comprising the following steps: the power grid enterprise investment budgeting method under the multi-constraint condition based on power selling amount prediction comprises the following steps:

step one, obtaining a predicted value of electricity selling amount of the next year according to original data of the electricity selling amount of a target power grid enterprise;

step two, calculating a first investment budget LA of the target enterprise under common constraint according to the predicted value of the electricity sales amount obtained in the step one₁；

Step three, calculating a second investment budget LA of the target enterprise under the target profit constraint according to the predicted value of the electricity sales amount obtained in the step one₂；

Step four, calculating a third investment budget LA of the target enterprise under the constraint of the target asset liability rate according to the predicted value of the electricity sales amount obtained in the step one₃；

Step five, selecting the first investment budget LA₁The second investment budget LA₂And the third investment budget LA₃The minimum value in the above is the investment budget of the target enterprise in the next year.

2. The method for budgeting investment of power grid enterprises under multiple constraints based on power sales amount prediction according to claim 1, wherein the first step comprises:

step one, listing the original data Q of the power selling amount of the target power grid enterprise⁽⁰⁾＝{Q⁽⁰⁾(1)，Q⁽⁰⁾(2)，…，Q⁽⁰⁾(k) And f, wherein the value range of k is a positive integer, and the first-order accumulation is carried out to obtain an accumulation generation sequence Q⁽¹⁾＝{Q⁽¹⁾(1)，Q⁽¹⁾(2)，…，Q⁽¹⁾(k) And (c) the step of (c) in which,k is positive integer, and the sequence Q is generated by accumulation⁽¹⁾Satisfy the formula one

A second substep of generating a sequence Q from the accumulation⁽¹⁾And formula twoCombine to obtainWhere a and u are parameters in the equation,is the obtained parameter value;

a third substep of obtaining the parameter values obtained in the second substepCombining with the first formula to obtain a third formulaWherein the value range of k is positive integer, and Q in the third substep⁽⁰⁾And (k +1) is a predicted value of the electricity sales amount of the target enterprise in the next year.

3. The power grid enterprise investment budgeting method under the multi-constraint condition based on the power sales amount prediction according to claim 2, wherein the second step comprises:

substep one, calculating profit before tax interestWherein,the operation profit of the year is realized,in order to account for the financial cost of the year,for capitalization interest of the year, Q⁽⁰⁾(k +1) is the electricity sales in the next year,. DELTA.p is the purchase-sale price difference, A_zjFor reckoning the size of depreciated assets, R_zcFor asset scale growth rate, R_zjThe comprehensive depreciation rate is obtained;

and a second substep: calculating interest and fund rate of borrowing

And a third substep: calculating depreciation cost F_rz＝A_zj×(1+R_zc/2)×R_zj；

And a fourth substep: calculating operating capital Change Δ A_yy＝ΔA_ld-ΔD_ldWherein Δ A_ldFor moving assets, Δ D_ldIs a mobile liability shift;

and a fifth substep: calculating balance D of interest and debt under common constraintⁱ _dx1＝D^i-1 _dx+(D^i-1+E^i-1)×R_zc×R_zcfzWherein D is^{i -1} _dxBalance of debt charged for the last year, D^i-1Is the annual liability, E^i-1For the owner's right of the year, R_zcfzIs the rate of assets liability;

and a sixth substep: calculating the cost of the charged interest F under the common constraint_lx1＝F_rz×(1-R_zbh)×Dⁱ _dx1In which F is_rzAverage financing cost;

and a seventh substep: calculating the net amount of cash flow OCF generated by business activities under common constraints₁＝(W_xsq-F_lx1)×(1-R_IT)+F_rz-ΔA_yy+F_lx1+S_jz-S_gy-S_tzWherein R is_ITFor the income tax rate, S_jzFor asset depreciation losses, S_gyThe earnings are changed for the fair value, S_tzTo return on investment;

and a substep eight: calculating cash inflow for financing activities under common constraintsWherein, CI_yhFor the clear inflow of cash to the customer engineering, S_sjIn order to pay for the investment income,for this annual equity fund inflow,increasing equity fund inflow for the next year;

and a substep nine: calculating cash inflow for funding activities under common constraints

And a substep of ten: calculating a first investment budget LA of the target enterprise under a common constraint₁,

Wherein, Δ MCR₁The lowest safety reserve payment under the common constraint is changed.

4. The power grid enterprise investment budgeting method under the multi-constraint condition based on the power sales amount prediction according to claim 3, wherein the third step comprises:

the first substep: calculating interest balance D under target profit constraintⁱ _dx2＝(W_xsq-W_ys)/[F_rz×(1-R_zbh)]Wherein W is_ysA constraint value for the total profit;

and a second substep: calculating a charged interest fee F under the constraint of target profit_lx2＝Dⁱ _dx2×F_rz×(1-R_zbh)；

And a third substep: calculating the net amount of cash flow OCF generated by business activities under the constraint of target profit₂＝(W_xsq-F_lx2)×(1-R_IT)+F_rz-ΔA_yy+F_lx2+S_jz-S_gy-S_tz；

And a fourth substep: calculating net cash flow generated by financing activities under target profit constraints

And a fifth substep: funding activity cash inflow under calculated target profit constraints

And a sixth substep: calculating a second investment budget LA of the target enterprise under the target profit constraint₂,

Wherein, Δ MCR₂The minimum safe reserve payment amount changes under the constraint of target profit.

5. The power grid enterprise investment budgeting method under the multi-constraint condition based on the power sales amount prediction according to claim 4, wherein the fourth step comprises:

the first substep: calculating the net amount OCF of cash flow born by the operation under the constraint of the asset liability rate₃Net cash flow FCF generated by financing activities under the constraint of asset liability rate₃The sum of the total weight of the components,

wherein the total amount of the option interest is E^i-1The amount of the given assets transferred is A_szThe rest-to-debt ratio is R_dxfz；

And a second substep: calculating investment activity cash inflow under asset liability rate constraints

And a third substep: calculating a third investment budget LA of the target enterprise under the constraint of the asset liability rate₃,

Wherein, Δ MCR₃The change of the minimum safety reserve payment under the constraint of the asset load rate.