CN107358307A - A kind of power grid enterprises investment budgey method under multi-constraint condition based on electricity sales amount prediction - Google Patents

A kind of power grid enterprises investment budgey method under multi-constraint condition based on electricity sales amount prediction Download PDF

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CN107358307A
CN107358307A CN201710305798.4A CN201710305798A CN107358307A CN 107358307 A CN107358307 A CN 107358307A CN 201710305798 A CN201710305798 A CN 201710305798A CN 107358307 A CN107358307 A CN 107358307A
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成敬周
林建军
牛东晓
李雅
沈晨姝
王政
施永益
王锋华
黄建平
杨少杰
孙晨
王辉华
张韩旦
刘帅
顾晓燕
杨扬
王晓辉
纪德良
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State Grid Corp of China SGCC
State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co Ltd
North China Electric Power University
Zhejiang Huayun Information Technology Co Ltd
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State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co Ltd
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Abstract

本发明公开了一种基于售电量预测的多约束条件下的电网企业投资预算测算方法,涉及企业投资预算研究领域,基于未来一年售电量预测,计算出普通约束下、目标利润约束下以及目标资产负债率约束下的投资预算并取三者中的最小值确定电网企业投资预算。本发明充分考虑了多种约束条件,更为科学合理,基于灰色预测模型,结果更加准确。The invention discloses a power grid enterprise investment budget calculation method under multi-constraint conditions based on electricity sales forecast, which relates to the field of enterprise investment budget research. The investment budget under the asset-liability ratio constraint and take the minimum value among the three to determine the investment budget of the power grid enterprise. The invention fully considers various constraint conditions, is more scientific and reasonable, and based on the gray prediction model, the result is more accurate.

Description

一种基于售电量预测的多约束条件下的电网企业投资预算 方法A Power Grid Enterprise Investment Budget Based on Power Sales Forecast under Multiple Constraints method

【技术领域】【Technical field】

本发明涉及企业投资预算研究领域,具体涉及一种基于售电量预测的约束 条件下的电网企业投资预算测算方法。The invention relates to the research field of enterprise investment budget, in particular to a method for measuring and calculating the investment budget of power grid enterprises under the constraints of electricity sales forecast.

【背景技术】【Background technique】

伴随着我国国民经济的稳步发展,人民生活水平的逐年提高,全社会对电 力的需求日益增长,电网的投资规模也不断加大。“十二五”期间,电力企业 完成固定资产投资与“十一五”相比成倍增长,资产总额实现了跨越式发展。 预计“十三五”期间,固定资产投资仍将维持在较高的水平。With the steady development of my country's national economy and the improvement of people's living standards year by year, the whole society's demand for electricity is increasing day by day, and the investment scale of power grid is also increasing. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, compared with the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan", the investment in fixed assets completed by electric power enterprises has doubled, and the total assets have achieved leapfrog development. It is expected that during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, investment in fixed assets will remain at a relatively high level.

随着电力行业改革的深入,投资决策正逐渐向效益导向转变。测算电网企 业投资预算能对资本性投资预算的制定提供参考,满足电网产业投资决策方面 的理论诉求,切合电力投资方式由“外延式扩张”逐渐向效益导向的“内涵式 提升”的转变,并且能够对其他行业的相关投资决策分析提供有效参考。With the deepening of power industry reform, investment decision-making is gradually shifting to benefit-oriented. Estimating the investment budget of power grid enterprises can provide a reference for the formulation of capital investment budget, meet the theoretical demands of grid industry investment decision-making, and meet the transformation of power investment mode from "extensive expansion" to benefit-oriented "connotative improvement", and It can provide an effective reference for relevant investment decision-making analysis in other industries.

目前对电网企业自身投资预算的研究较少,现有技术中已经运用了财务管 理、技术经济等理论,引入投资回报率、运营系数等概念,构建了电网企业投 资预算量化模型;构建了基于资产负债率限制的电网投资测算模型;国外对投 资预算分析与经济技术评价主要集中在电力市场资金融入融出、风险控制,和 供电可靠性等工程技术问题。At present, there are few researches on the investment budget of power grid enterprises themselves. In the existing technology, theories such as financial management and technical economy have been used, and concepts such as return on investment and operation coefficient have been introduced to construct a quantitative model of investment budget of power grid enterprises; The calculation model of power grid investment limited by debt ratio; foreign investment budget analysis and economic and technical evaluation mainly focus on engineering technical issues such as capital integration and financing in the power market, risk control, and power supply reliability.

事实上,投资预算受到多种因素约束,并非线性关系。而上述研究多是单 一约束条件下的投资预算,缺少对多约束条件下投资预算的研究。故需要在不 同约束条件下,量化评估电网企业未来投资预算。In fact, the investment budget is constrained by many factors, and the relationship is not linear. However, most of the above studies focus on investment budget under single constraint conditions, and lack of research on investment budget under multiple constraint conditions. Therefore, it is necessary to quantitatively evaluate the future investment budget of power grid enterprises under different constraints.

【发明内容】【Content of invention】

针对现有技术存在的问题,本发明提供了一种基于售电量预测的多约束条 件下的电网企业投资预算方法,该测算方法以未来一年售电量预测得出的预测 收入、预测成本、预测费用为基础,以现金流量恒等式为手段,在目标利润和 目标资产负债率的约束条件下,测算电网企业投资预算,为电网企业合理确定 投资规模、提高投资效益提供决策依据。Aiming at the problems existing in the prior art, the present invention provides a grid enterprise investment budgeting method based on electricity sales forecast under multi-constraint conditions. Based on the cost, using the cash flow identity as a means, under the constraints of the target profit and the target asset-liability ratio, the investment budget of the power grid enterprise is calculated, which provides a decision-making basis for the power grid enterprise to reasonably determine the investment scale and improve investment efficiency.

本发明采用如下技术方案:一种基于售电量预测的多约束条件下的电网企 业投资预算方法,所述基于售电量预测的多约束条件下的电网企业投资预算方 法包括步骤:The present invention adopts the following technical scheme: a grid enterprise investment budgeting method based on electricity sales forecast under multiple constraint conditions, and the grid enterprise investment budget method under multiple constraint conditions based on electricity sales forecast includes steps:

步骤一,根据目标电网企业售电量的原始数据获取下一年度的售电量预测 值,基于灰色预测模型GM(1,1)进行预测;Step 1. According to the original data of electricity sales of the target grid enterprise, the predicted value of electricity sales in the next year is obtained, and the prediction is made based on the gray forecasting model GM(1,1);

步骤二,根据所述步骤一获取的售电量预测值,计算所述目标企业在普通 约束下的第一投资预算LA1Step 2: Calculate the first investment budget LA 1 of the target enterprise under normal constraints according to the predicted value of electricity sales obtained in Step 1 ;

步骤三,根据所述步骤一获取的售电量预测值,计算所述目标企业在目标 利润约束下的第二投资预算LA2Step 3: Calculate the second investment budget LA 2 of the target enterprise under the target profit constraint according to the predicted value of electricity sales obtained in the step 1;

步骤四,根据所述步骤一获取的售电量预测值,计算所述目标企业在目标 资产负债率约束下的第三投资预算LA3Step 4: Calculate the third investment budget LA 3 of the target enterprise under the constraint of the target asset-liability ratio according to the predicted value of electricity sales obtained in the step 1;

步骤五,选取所述第一投资预算LA1、所述第二投资预算LA2和所述第三 投资预算LA3中的最小值,即为所述目标企业下一年度的投资预算。Step 5: Select the minimum value among the first investment budget LA 1 , the second investment budget LA 2 and the third investment budget LA 3 to be the investment budget of the target enterprise for the next year.

进一步的,所述步骤一包括:Further, said step one includes:

子步骤一,列出所述目标电网企业售电量的原始数据Q(0)={Q(0)(1), Q(0)(2),…,Q(0)(k)},其中k的取值范围为正整数,并进行一阶累加得到累加 生成序列Q(1)={Q(1)(1),Q(1)(2),…,Q(1)(k)},其中,k的取值 范围为正整数,所述累加生成序列Q(1)满足公式一 Sub-step 1, list the original data Q (0) of electricity sales of the target grid enterprise = {Q (0) (1), Q (0) (2), ..., Q (0) (k)}, where The value range of k is a positive integer, and the first-order accumulation is carried out to obtain the accumulation sequence Q (1) = {Q (1) (1), Q (1) (2), ..., Q (1) (k)} ,in, The value range of k is a positive integer, and the accumulated generation sequence Q (1) satisfies formula one

子步骤二,将所述累加生成序列Q(1)与公式二结合,得到其中a和u是方程中的参数,是得到的参数值;Sub-step two, the accumulation generated sequence Q (1) and formula two combine to get where a and u are the parameters in the equation, is the obtained parameter value;

在子步骤二中,由于累加生成序列Q(1)具有指数增长规律,而一阶微分方程 的解是指数增长形式的解,因此认为序列Q(1)满足下列一阶线性微分方程模 型,即公式一,根据导数定义,若以离散形式表示,则该微分方程的微分项可写成:其中Q(1)的值只能取时刻k和k+1的均 值,即将Q(1)的值与代入中,可推出改写成矩阵形式即为公式二。In sub-step 2, since the accumulative generated sequence Q (1) has an exponential growth law, and the solution of the first-order differential equation is a solution in the form of exponential growth, it is considered that the sequence Q (1) satisfies the following first-order linear differential equation model, namely Formula 1, according to the definition of derivative, if expressed in discrete form, the differential term of this differential equation can be written as: Among them, the value of Q (1) can only take the mean value of time k and k+1, namely Compare the value of Q (1) with substitute In, can launch Rewritten into matrix form is formula 2.

子步骤三,将所述子步骤二中得到的参数值与公式一结合,得到公式 三其中k的取值范围为正整数,所述子步 骤三中的Q(0)(k+1)为所述目标企业下一年度的售电量预测值。Sub-step three, the parameter value obtained in the sub-step two Combined with Equation 1, Equation 3 is obtained Wherein, the value range of k is a positive integer, and Q (0) (k+1) in the third sub-step is the predicted value of electricity sales of the target enterprise in the next year.

在子步骤三中,将所述子步骤二中得到的参数值代入公式一中得到方 程解出方程得到公式四其中k的取值范围为 正整数,公式四即为灰色预测模型GM(1,1)的时间响应函数,再对公式四进行 累减还原得到公式三公式三即为过去 若干年售电量的原始数据序列Q(0)的灰色预测模型。In sub-step three, the parameter value obtained in the sub-step two Substitute into formula 1 to get the equation Solving the equation gives Equation 4 Among them, the value range of k is a positive integer. Formula 4 is the time response function of the gray forecasting model GM(1,1), and then formula 4 is accumulated and reduced to obtain formula 3. Formula 3 is the gray prediction model of the original data sequence Q (0) of electricity sales in the past several years.

进一步的,所述步骤二包括:Further, said step two includes:

子步骤一,计算息税前利润其中,为本年度的营业利润,为本年度的财务费用,为本年度的资 本化利息,Q(0)(k+1)为下一年度的售电量、Δp为购售价差、Azj为可计提折旧资 产规模、Rzc为资产规模增长率、Rzj为综合折旧率;Sub-step 1, calculate profit before interest and taxes in, is the operating profit for the year, For the financial expenses for the current year, is the capitalized interest of the current year, Q (0) (k+1) is the electricity sales in the next year, Δp is the purchase price difference, A zj is the scale of depreciable assets, R zc is the growth rate of asset scale, R zj is the comprehensive depreciation rate;

子步骤二:计算借款利息资本化率 Sub-step 2: Calculate the loan interest capitalization rate

子步骤三:计算折旧费用Frz=Azj×(1+Rzc/2)×RzjSub-step 3: Calculate depreciation expense F rz =A zj ×(1+R zc /2)×R zj ;

子步骤四:计算运营资本变动ΔAyy=ΔAld-ΔDld,其中ΔAld为流动资产变动,ΔDld为流动负债变动;Sub-step 4: Calculate the change in working capital ΔA yy = ΔA ld -ΔD ld , where ΔA ld is the change in current assets, and ΔD ld is the change in current liabilities;

子步骤五:计算普通约束下带息负债余额Di dx1=Di-1 dx+(Di-1+Ei-1)×Rzc×Rzcfz, 其中,Di-1 dx为上一年度带息负债余额,Di-1为本年度期负债,Ei-1为本年度所有 者权益,Rzcfz为资产负债率;Sub-step 5: Calculate the balance of interest-bearing liabilities D i dx1 =D i-1 dx +(D i-1 +E i-1 )×R zc ×R zcfz under ordinary constraints, where D i-1 dx is the previous Annual balance of interest-bearing liabilities, D i-1 is the current year's liabilities, E i-1 is the current year's owner's equity, R zcfz is the asset-liability ratio;

子步骤六:计算普通约束下费用化利息费用Flx1=Frz×(1-Rzbh)×Di dx1,其中Frz为平均融资成本;Sub-step 6: Calculate the expensed interest expense F lx1 = F rz ×(1-R zbh )×D i dx1 under common constraints, where F rz is the average financing cost;

子步骤七:计算普通约束下经营活动所产生现金流量净额 OCF1=(Wxsq-Flx1)×(1-RIT)+Frz-ΔAyy+Flx1+Sjz-Sgy-Stz,其中,RIT为所得税税率,Sjz为资产减值损失,Sgy为公允价值变动收益为,Stz为投资收益;Sub-step 7: Calculate the net cash flow OCF 1 from operating activities under common constraints =(W xsq -F lx1 )×(1-R IT )+F rz -ΔA yy +F lx1 +S jz -S gy -S tz , where R IT is the income tax rate, S jz is the asset impairment loss, S gy is the gain from changes in fair value, and S tz is the investment income;

子步骤八:计算普通约束下筹资活动现金流入其中,CIyh为用户工程现金净流 入,Ssj为上缴投资收益,为本年度权益性资金流入,为下一年度权益 性资金流入增加;Sub-step 8: Calculating cash inflows from financing activities under common constraints Among them, CI yh is the net cash inflow of user projects, S sj is the investment income handed over, Equity capital inflow for the year, Increase in equity capital inflows for the next year;

子步骤九:计算普通约束下投资活动现金流入 Sub-step 9: Calculating cash inflows from investment activities under common constraints

子步骤十:计算所述目标企业在普通约束下的第一投资预算LA1,Sub-step ten: Calculate the first investment budget LA 1 of the target enterprise under common constraints,

其中,ΔMCR1为普通约束下最低安全备付额变动。Among them, ΔMCR 1 is the change of the minimum safety reserve amount under ordinary constraints.

进一步的,所述步骤三包括:Further, said step three includes:

子步骤一:计算目标利润约束下带息负债余额Di dx2=(Wxsq-Wys)/[Frz×(1-Rzbh)],其中Wys为利润总额的约束值;Sub-step 1: Calculate the balance of interest-bearing liabilities under the target profit constraint D i dx2 =(W xsq -W ys )/[F rz ×(1-R zbh )], where W ys is the constraint value of the total profit;

子步骤二:计算目标利润约束下费用化利息费用Flx2=Di dx2×Frz×(1-Rzbh);Sub-step 2: Calculate the expensed interest expense F lx2 =D i dx2 ×F rz ×(1-R zbh ) under the target profit constraint;

子步骤三:计算目标利润约束下经营活动所产生现金流量净额Sub-step 3: Calculate the net cash flow generated by operating activities under the target profit constraint

OCF2=(Wxsq-Flx2)×(1-RIT)+Frz-ΔAyy+Flx2+Sjz-Sgy-StzOCF 2 =(W xsq -F lx2 )×(1-R IT )+F rz -ΔA yy +F lx2 +S jz -S gy -S tz ;

子步骤四:计算目标利润约束下筹资活动所产生现金流量净额 Sub-step 4: Calculate the net cash flow generated by financing activities under the target profit constraint

子步骤五:计算目标利润约束下投资活动现金流入 Sub-step five: Calculate the cash inflow of investment activities under the target profit constraint

子步骤六:计算所述目标企业在目标利润约束下的第二投资预算LA2,Sub-step 6: Calculate the second investment budget LA 2 of the target enterprise under the target profit constraint,

其中,ΔMCR2为目标利润约束下最低安全备付额变动。Among them, ΔMCR 2 is the change of the minimum safety reserve under the target profit constraint.

对所述第二投资预算LA2关于利润总额的约束值Wys求偏导:Calculate the partial derivative of the constraint value W ys of the second investment budget LA 2 with respect to the total profit:

可以看出,导函数恒为负,即利润约束值与投资预算负相关,也就是说利润总 额的约束值越高,所述目标电网企业在目标利润约束下的第二投资预算LA2越 低。It can be seen that the derivative function is always negative, that is, the profit constraint value is negatively correlated with the investment budget, that is to say, the higher the constraint value of the total profit, the lower the second investment budget LA 2 of the target power grid enterprise under the target profit constraint .

进一步的,所述步骤四包括:Further, said step four includes:

子步骤一:计算资产负债率约束下经营活动所出生现金流量净额OCF3与资 产负债率约束下筹资活动所产生现金流量净额FCF3之和,Sub-step 1: Calculate the sum of the net cash flow OCF 3 generated by operating activities under the asset-liability ratio constraint and the net cash flow FCF 3 generated by financing activities under the asset-liability ratio constraint,

其中,上期权益总额为Ei-1、受赠资产转资额为Asz、带息负债比为RdxfzAmong them, the total amount of equity in the previous period is E i-1 , the transfer amount of donated assets is A sz , and the interest-bearing debt ratio is R dxfz ;

子步骤二:计算资产负债率约束下投资活动现金流入 Sub-step 2: Calculate the cash inflow of investment activities under the asset-liability ratio constraint

子步骤三:计算所述目标企业在资产负债率约束下的第三投资预算LA3,Sub-step 3: Calculate the third investment budget LA 3 of the target enterprise under the constraint of asset-liability ratio,

其中,ΔMCR3为资产负载率约束下最低安全备付额变动。Among them, ΔMCR 3 is the change of the minimum safety reserve amount under the constraint of asset load ratio.

对所述第三投资能力LA3关于资产负债率Rzcfz求导:Derivation of the third investment capability LA 3 with respect to the asset-liability ratio R zcfz :

可以看出,导函数恒为正,即资产负债率约束值与投资预算正相关,也就是 说资产负债率约束值越高,所述目标电网企业在资产负债率约束下的第三投资 LA3预算越高。It can be seen that the derivative function is always positive, that is, the asset-liability ratio constraint value is positively correlated with the investment budget, that is to say, the higher the asset-liability ratio constraint value, the third investment LA 3 of the target power grid enterprise under the asset-liability ratio constraint The higher the budget.

与现有技术相比,本发明具有以下优点和有益效果:Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following advantages and beneficial effects:

(1)本发明充分考虑了多种约束条件,在分别测算了普通约束、目标资产 负债率约束、目标利润约束三个口径的投资预算后,按照最小原则确定三者约 束下的投资预算,更为科学合理。(1) The present invention fully considers multiple constraint conditions. After measuring and calculating the investment budgets of the three calibers of common constraints, target asset-liability ratio constraints, and target profit constraints respectively, the investment budget under the constraints of the three is determined according to the minimum principle, and more scientifically reasonable.

(2)本发明基于灰色预测模型,以未来一年售电量预测得出的预测收入、预测成本、预测费用为基础,充分保证了计算结果的准确性。(2) The present invention is based on the gray forecasting model, based on the forecasted income, forecasted cost and forecasted expense obtained from the electricity sales forecast in the coming year, which fully guarantees the accuracy of the calculation results.

【具体实施方式】【detailed description】

下面对本发明实施例的技术方案进行解释和说明,但下述实施例仅为本发明的优选实施例,并非全部。基于实施方式中的实施例,本领域技术人员在没 有做出创造性劳动的前提下所获得其他实施例,都属于本发明的保护范围。The technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention are explained and described below, but the following embodiments are only preferred embodiments of the present invention, not all of them. Based on the examples in the implementation manner, other examples obtained by those skilled in the art without making creative efforts all belong to the protection scope of the present invention.

本发明提供一种基于售电量预测的多约束条件下的电网企业投资预算方法。所述基于售电量预测的多约束条件下的电网企业投资预算方法包括步骤:The invention provides a grid enterprise investment budgeting method under multiple constraint conditions based on electricity sales forecast. The grid enterprise investment budgeting method under the multi-constraint conditions based on electricity sales forecast includes steps:

步骤一,根据目标电网企业售电量的原始数据获取下一年度的售电量预测值,基于灰色预测模型GM(1,1)进行预测;Step 1. According to the original data of electricity sales of the target grid enterprise, the predicted value of electricity sales in the next year is obtained, and the prediction is made based on the gray forecasting model GM(1,1);

步骤二,根据所述步骤一获取的售电量预测值,计算所述目标企业在普通约束下的第一投资预算LA1Step 2: Calculate the first investment budget LA 1 of the target enterprise under normal constraints according to the predicted value of electricity sales obtained in Step 1 ;

步骤三,根据所述步骤一获取的售电量预测值,计算所述目标企业在目标利润约束下的第二投资预算LA2Step 3: Calculate the second investment budget LA 2 of the target enterprise under the target profit constraint according to the predicted value of electricity sales obtained in the step 1;

步骤四,根据所述步骤一获取的售电量预测值,计算所述目标企业在目标资产负债率约束下的第三投资预算LA3Step 4: Calculate the third investment budget LA 3 of the target enterprise under the constraint of the target asset-liability ratio according to the predicted value of electricity sales obtained in the step 1;

步骤五,选取所述第一投资预算LA1、所述第二投资预算LA2和所述第三投资预算LA3中的最小值,即为所述目标企业下一年度的投资预算。Step 5: Select the minimum value among the first investment budget LA 1 , the second investment budget LA 2 and the third investment budget LA 3 to be the investment budget of the target enterprise for the next year.

进一步的,所述步骤一包括:Further, said step one includes:

子步骤一,列出所述目标电网企业售电量的原始数据Q(0)={Q(0)(1), Q(0)(2),…,Q(0)(k)},其中k的取值范围为正整数,并进行一阶累加得到累加 生成序列Q(1)={Q(1)(1),Q(1)(2),…,Q(1)(k)},其中,k的取值 范围为正整数,所述累加生成序列Q(1)满足公式一 Sub-step 1, list the original data Q (0) of electricity sales of the target grid enterprise = {Q (0) (1), Q (0) (2), ..., Q (0) (k)}, where The value range of k is a positive integer, and the first-order accumulation is carried out to obtain the accumulation sequence Q (1) = {Q (1) (1), Q (1) (2), ..., Q (1) (k)} ,in, The value range of k is a positive integer, and the accumulated generation sequence Q (1) satisfies formula one

子步骤二,将所述累加生成序列Q(1)与公式二结合,得到其中a和u是方程中的参数,是得到的参数值;Sub-step two, the accumulation generated sequence Q (1) and formula two combine to get where a and u are the parameters in the equation, is the obtained parameter value;

在子步骤二中,由于累加生成序列Q(1)具有指数增长规律,而一阶微分方程 的解是指数增长形式的解,因此认为序列Q(1)满足下列一阶线性微分方程模 型,即公式一,根据导数定义,若以离散形式表示,则该微分方程的微分项可写成:其中Q(1)的值只能取时刻k和k+1的均值,即将Q(1)的值与代入中,可推出改写成矩阵形式即为公式二。In sub-step 2, since the accumulative generated sequence Q (1) has an exponential growth law, and the solution of the first-order differential equation is a solution in the form of exponential growth, it is considered that the sequence Q (1) satisfies the following first-order linear differential equation model, namely Formula 1, according to the definition of derivative, if expressed in discrete form, the differential term of this differential equation can be written as: Among them, the value of Q (1) can only take the mean value of time k and k+1, namely Compare the value of Q (1) with substitute In, can launch Rewritten into matrix form is formula 2.

子步骤三,将所述子步骤二中得到的参数值与公式一结合,得到公式 三其中k的取值范围为正整数,所述子步 骤三中的Q(0)(k+1)为所述目标企业下一年度的售电量预测值。Sub-step three, the parameter value obtained in the sub-step two Combined with Equation 1, Equation 3 is obtained Wherein, the value range of k is a positive integer, and Q (0) (k+1) in the third sub-step is the predicted value of electricity sales of the target enterprise in the next year.

在子步骤三中,将所述子步骤二中得到的参数值代入公式一中得到方 程解出方程得到公式四其中k的取值范围为正整数,公式四即为灰色预测模型GM(1,1)的时间响应函数,再对公式四进行 累减还原得到公式三公式三即为过去 若干年售电量的原始数据序列Q(0)的灰色预测模型。In sub-step three, the parameter value obtained in the sub-step two Substitute into formula 1 to get the equation Solving the equation gives Equation 4 Among them, the value range of k is a positive integer. Formula 4 is the time response function of the gray forecasting model GM(1,1), and then formula 4 is accumulated and reduced to obtain formula 3. Formula 3 is the gray prediction model of the original data sequence Q (0) of electricity sales in the past several years.

进一步的,所述步骤二包括:Further, said step two includes:

子步骤一,计算息税前利润其中,为本年度的营业利润,为本年度的财务费用,为本年度的资本化利息,Q(0)(k+1)为下一年度的售电量、Δp为购售价差、Azj为可计提折旧资 产规模、Rzc为资产规模增长率、Rzj为综合折旧率;Sub-step 1, calculate profit before interest and taxes in, is the operating profit for the year, For the financial expenses for the current year, is the capitalized interest of the current year, Q (0) (k+1) is the electricity sales in the next year, Δp is the purchase price difference, A zj is the scale of depreciable assets, R zc is the growth rate of asset scale, R zj is the comprehensive depreciation rate;

子步骤二:计算借款利息资本化率 Sub-step 2: Calculate the loan interest capitalization rate

子步骤三:计算折旧费用Frz=Azj×(1+Rzc/2)×RzjSub-step 3: Calculate depreciation expense F rz =A zj ×(1+R zc /2)×R zj ;

子步骤四:计算运营资本变动ΔAyy=ΔAld-ΔDld,其中ΔAld为流动资产变动,ΔDld为流动负债变动;Sub-step 4: Calculate the change in working capital ΔA yy = ΔA ld -ΔD ld , where ΔA ld is the change in current assets, and ΔD ld is the change in current liabilities;

子步骤五:计算普通约束下带息负债余额Di dx1=Di-1 dx+(Di-1+Ei-1)×Rzc×Rzcfz, 其中,Di-1 dx为上一年度带息负债余额,Di-1为本年度期负债,Ei-1为本年度所有 者权益,Rzcfz为资产负债率;Sub-step 5: Calculate the balance of interest-bearing liabilities D i dx1 =D i-1 dx +(D i-1 +E i-1 )×R zc ×R zcfz under ordinary constraints, where D i-1 dx is the previous Annual balance of interest-bearing liabilities, D i-1 is the current year's liabilities, E i-1 is the current year's owner's equity, R zcfz is the asset-liability ratio;

子步骤六:计算普通约束下费用化利息费用Flx1=Frz×(1-Rzbh)×Di dx1,其中Frz为平均融资成本;Sub-step 6: Calculate the expensed interest expense F lx1 = F rz ×(1-R zbh )×D i dx1 under common constraints, where F rz is the average financing cost;

子步骤七:计算普通约束下经营活动所产生现金流量净额 OCF1=(Wxsq-Flx1)×(1-RIT)+Frz-ΔAyy+Flx1+Sjz-Sgy-Stz,其中,RIT为所得税税率,Sjz为资产减值损失,Sgy为公允价值变动收益为,Stz为投资收益;Sub-step 7: Calculate the net cash flow OCF 1 from operating activities under common constraints =(W xsq -F lx1 )×(1-R IT )+F rz -ΔA yy +F lx1 +S jz -S gy -S tz , where R IT is the income tax rate, S jz is the asset impairment loss, S gy is the gain from changes in fair value, and S tz is the investment income;

子步骤八:计算普通约束下筹资活动现金流入其中,CIyh为用户工程现金净流入,Ssj为上缴投资收益,为本年度权益性资金流入,为下一年度权益性资金流入增加;Sub-step 8: Calculating cash inflows from financing activities under common constraints Among them, CI yh is the net cash inflow of user projects, S sj is the investment income handed over, Equity capital inflow for the year, Increase in equity capital inflows for the next year;

子步骤九:计算普通约束下投资活动现金流入 Sub-step 9: Calculating cash inflows from investment activities under common constraints

子步骤十:计算所述目标企业在普通约束下的第一投资预算LA1,Sub-step ten: Calculate the first investment budget LA 1 of the target enterprise under common constraints,

其中,ΔMCR1为普通约束下最低安全备付额变动。Among them, ΔMCR 1 is the change of the minimum safety reserve amount under ordinary constraints.

进一步的,所述步骤三包括:Further, said step three includes:

子步骤一:计算目标利润约束下带息负债余额Di dx2=(Wxsq-Wys)/[Frz×(1-Rzbh)],其中Wys为利润总额的约束值;Sub-step 1: Calculate the balance of interest-bearing liabilities under the target profit constraint D i dx2 =(W xsq -W ys )/[F rz ×(1-R zbh )], where W ys is the constraint value of the total profit;

子步骤二:计算目标利润约束下费用化利息费用Flx2=Di dx2×Frz×(1-Rzbh);Sub-step 2: Calculate the expensed interest expense F lx2 =D i dx2 ×F rz ×(1-R zbh ) under the target profit constraint;

子步骤三:计算目标利润约束下经营活动所产生现金流量净额 OCF2=(Wxsq-Flx2)×(1-RIT)+Frz-ΔAyy+Flx2+Sjz-Sgy-StzSub-step 3: Calculate the net cash flow generated by operating activities under the target profit constraint OCF 2 =(W xsq -F lx2 )×(1-R IT )+F rz -ΔA yy +F lx2 +S jz -S gy - S tz ;

子步骤四:计算目标利润约束下筹资活动所产生现金流量净额 Sub-step 4: Calculate the net cash flow generated by financing activities under the target profit constraint

子步骤五:计算目标利润约束下投资活动现金流入 Sub-step five: Calculate the cash inflow of investment activities under the target profit constraint

子步骤六:计算所述目标企业在目标利润约束下的第二投资预算LA2,Sub-step 6: Calculate the second investment budget LA 2 of the target enterprise under the target profit constraint,

其中,ΔMCR2为目标利润约束下最低安全备付额变动。Among them, ΔMCR 2 is the change of the minimum safety reserve under the target profit constraint.

对所述第二投资预算LA2关于利润总额的约束值Wys求偏导:Calculate the partial derivative of the constraint value W ys of the second investment budget LA 2 with respect to the total profit:

可以看出,导函数恒为负,即利润约束值与投资预算负相关,也就是说利润总额的约束值越高,所述目标电网企业在目标利润约束下的第二投资预算LA2越 低。It can be seen that the derivative function is always negative, that is, the profit constraint value is negatively correlated with the investment budget, that is to say, the higher the constraint value of the total profit, the lower the second investment budget LA 2 of the target power grid enterprise under the target profit constraint .

进一步的,所述步骤四包括:Further, said step four includes:

子步骤一:计算资产负债率约束下经营活动所出生现金流量净额OCF3与资产负债率约束下筹资活动所产生现金流量净额FCF3之和,Sub-step 1: Calculate the sum of the net cash flow OCF 3 generated by operating activities under the asset-liability ratio constraint and the net cash flow FCF 3 generated by financing activities under the asset-liability ratio constraint,

其中,上期权益总额为Ei-1、受赠资产转资额为Asz、带息负债比为RdxfzAmong them, the total amount of equity in the previous period is E i-1 , the transfer amount of donated assets is A sz , and the interest-bearing debt ratio is R dxfz ;

子步骤二:计算资产负债率约束下投资活动现金流入 Sub-step 2: Calculate the cash inflow of investment activities under the asset-liability ratio constraint

子步骤三:计算所述目标企业在资产负债率约束下的第三投资预算LA3,Sub-step 3: Calculate the third investment budget LA 3 of the target enterprise under the constraint of asset-liability ratio,

其中,ΔMCR3为资产负载率约束下最低安全备付额变动。Among them, ΔMCR 3 is the change of the minimum safety reserve amount under the constraint of asset load ratio.

对所述第三投资能力LA3关于资产负债率Rzcfz求导:Derivation of the third investment capability LA 3 with respect to the asset-liability ratio R zcfz :

可以看出,导函数恒为正,即资产负债率约束值与投资预算正相关,也就是说资产负债率约束值越高,所述目标电网企业在资产负债率约束下的第三投 资LA3预算越高。It can be seen that the derivative function is always positive, that is, the asset-liability ratio constraint value is positively correlated with the investment budget, that is to say, the higher the asset-liability ratio constraint value, the third investment LA 3 of the target power grid enterprise under the asset-liability ratio constraint The higher the budget.

为了对本发明所提供的方法进行进一步说明,根据某电网企业的经营数据,测算该企业投资能力。In order to further illustrate the method provided by the present invention, according to the operating data of a power grid enterprise, the investment capacity of the enterprise is calculated.

步骤一:年售电量的历史数据如表1所示,运用灰色预测技术,预测该电网企业的售电量。首先,将原始数据进行累加生成:Step 1: The historical data of annual electricity sales are shown in Table 1, and the gray forecasting technique is used to predict the electricity sales of the power grid enterprise. First, the raw data is accumulated and generated:

表1 原始数据累加生成表Table 1 Raw data accumulation table

其次,计算出微分方程的参数值。根据线性方程公式二,计算出微分方程的参数的值: Second, calculate the parameter values of the differential equation. According to the linear equation formula 2, calculate the parameters of the differential equation value of:

随后,建立GM(1,1)模型,将参数的值代入后,得到累加数列的灰色预测模型:Q(0)(k+1)=1457.04e0.0738kSubsequently, the GM(1,1) model is established, and after substituting the parameter values, the gray prediction model of the cumulative sequence is obtained: Q (0) (k+1)=1457.04e 0.0738k .

最后,由累加数列的灰色预测模型,预测出该企业2017年的售电量预测值为365.03×104KW·h。Finally, based on the gray forecasting model of the accumulated series, it is predicted that the company's electricity sales forecast value in 2017 is 365.03×104KW·h.

步骤二:普通约束下,该企业财务报表数据如表2所示:Step 2: Under normal constraints, the financial statement data of the enterprise are shown in Table 2:

表2 输入参数表1Table 2 Input parameters Table 1

根据步骤二中公式,可以分别算出普通约束下息税前利润、借款利息资本化率、折旧费用等中间参数,汇总如表3所示:According to the formula in step 2, the intermediate parameters such as profit before interest and taxes under ordinary constraints, loan interest capitalization rate, and depreciation expenses can be calculated respectively, and the summary is shown in Table 3:

表3 中间参数表1Table 3 Intermediate parameters Table 1

进一步可以分别计算出普通约束下,经营活动产生的现金流量净额、筹资活动产生的现金流量净额、投资活动现金流入以及电网企业投资预算,结果如表4所示:Further, the net cash flow generated by operating activities, the net cash flow generated by financing activities, the cash inflow of investment activities, and the investment budget of power grid enterprises can be calculated separately under the general constraints. The results are shown in Table 4:

表4 计算结果表1Table 4 Calculation results Table 1

步骤三:目标利润约束下,根据步骤三中公式,可以分别计算出目标利润约束下的带息负债余额和费用化利息费用,如表5所示:Step 3: Under the target profit constraint, according to the formula in Step 3, the balance of interest-bearing liabilities and expensed interest expenses under the target profit constraint can be calculated respectively, as shown in Table 5:

表5 中间参数表2Table 5 Intermediate parameter table 2

进一步,可以分别计算出目标利润约束下经营活动产生的现金流量净额、筹资活动产生的现金流量净额、投资活动现金流入以及目标利润约束下电网企 业投资预算,结果如表6所示:Further, the net cash flow generated by operating activities under the target profit constraint, the net cash flow generated by financing activities, the cash inflow of investment activities, and the grid enterprise investment budget under the target profit constraint can be calculated separately. The results are shown in Table 6:

表6 计算结果表2Table 6 Calculation results Table 2

步骤四:资产负债率约束下,输入参数如下:Step 4: Under the asset-liability ratio constraint, the input parameters are as follows:

表7 输入参数表3Table 7 Input parameters Table 3

根据步骤四中公式,可以分别计算出资产负债率约束下经营活动与筹资活动产生的现金流量净额、投资活动现金流入以及资产负债率约束下电网企业投资预算,结果如表8所示:According to the formula in step 4, the net cash flow generated by operating activities and financing activities under the constraint of asset-liability ratio, the cash inflow of investment activities and the investment budget of power grid enterprises under the constraint of asset-liability ratio can be calculated respectively. The results are shown in Table 8:

表8 计算结果表3Table 8 Calculation results Table 3

步骤5中:根据上述步骤分别计算出的基于普通约束、目标利润约束、资产负债率约束三个约束条件下的投资预算,最后按照最小原则确定的三者约束下的投资预算,该实例中电网企业的投资能力为539623万元,测算停止。Step 5: According to the above steps, calculate the investment budget based on the three constraints of general constraints, target profit constraints, and asset-liability ratio constraints, and finally determine the investment budget under the constraints of the three constraints based on the minimum principle. In this example, the power grid The investment capacity of the enterprise is 5,396,230,000 yuan, and the calculation is stopped.

综上所述,本发明具有以下优点和有益效果:In summary, the present invention has the following advantages and beneficial effects:

(1)本发明充分考虑了多种约束条件,在分别测算了普通约束、目标资产负债率约束、目标利润约束三个口径的投资预算后,按照最小原则确定三者约束下的投资预算,更为科学合理。(1) The present invention fully considers multiple constraint conditions. After measuring and calculating the investment budgets of the three calibers of common constraints, target asset-liability ratio constraints, and target profit constraints respectively, the investment budget under the constraints of the three is determined according to the minimum principle, and more scientifically reasonable.

(2)本发明基于灰色预测模型,以未来一年售电量预测得出的预测收入、预测成本、预测费用为基础,充分保证了计算结果的准确性。(2) The present invention is based on the gray forecasting model, based on the forecasted income, forecasted cost and forecasted expense obtained from the electricity sales forecast in the coming year, which fully guarantees the accuracy of the calculation results.

以上所述,仅为本发明的具体实施方式,但本发明的保护范围并不局限于此,熟悉该本领域的技术人员应该明白本发明包括但不限于上面具体实施方式中描述的内容。任何不偏离本发明的功能和结构原理的修改都将包括在权利要求书的范围中。The above description is only a specific embodiment of the present invention, but the protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto. Those skilled in the art should understand that the present invention includes but is not limited to the content described in the above specific embodiment. Any modifications that do not depart from the functional and structural principles of the present invention will be included in the scope of the claims.

Claims (5)

1. A power grid enterprise investment budgeting method under multiple constraint conditions based on power sale amount prediction is characterized by comprising the following steps: the power grid enterprise investment budgeting method under the multi-constraint condition based on power selling amount prediction comprises the following steps:
step one, obtaining a predicted value of electricity selling amount of the next year according to original data of the electricity selling amount of a target power grid enterprise;
step two, calculating a first investment budget LA of the target enterprise under common constraint according to the predicted value of the electricity sales amount obtained in the step one1
Step three, calculating a second investment budget LA of the target enterprise under the target profit constraint according to the predicted value of the electricity sales amount obtained in the step one2
Step four, calculating a third investment budget LA of the target enterprise under the constraint of the target asset liability rate according to the predicted value of the electricity sales amount obtained in the step one3
Step five, selecting the first investment budget LA1The second investment budget LA2And the third investment budget LA3The minimum value in the above is the investment budget of the target enterprise in the next year.
2. The method for budgeting investment of power grid enterprises under multiple constraints based on power sales amount prediction according to claim 1, wherein the first step comprises:
step one, listing the original data Q of the power selling amount of the target power grid enterprise(0)={Q(0)(1),Q(0)(2),…,Q(0)(k) And f, wherein the value range of k is a positive integer, and the first-order accumulation is carried out to obtain an accumulation generation sequence Q(1)={Q(1)(1),Q(1)(2),…,Q(1)(k) And (c) the step of (c) in which,k is positive integer, and the sequence Q is generated by accumulation(1)Satisfy the formula one
A second substep of generating a sequence Q from the accumulation(1)And formula twoCombine to obtainWhere a and u are parameters in the equation,is the obtained parameter value;
a third substep of obtaining the parameter values obtained in the second substepCombining with the first formula to obtain a third formulaWherein the value range of k is positive integer, and Q in the third substep(0)And (k +1) is a predicted value of the electricity sales amount of the target enterprise in the next year.
3. The power grid enterprise investment budgeting method under the multi-constraint condition based on the power sales amount prediction according to claim 2, wherein the second step comprises:
substep one, calculating profit before tax interestWherein,the operation profit of the year is realized,in order to account for the financial cost of the year,for capitalization interest of the year, Q(0)(k +1) is the electricity sales in the next year,. DELTA.p is the purchase-sale price difference, AzjFor reckoning the size of depreciated assets, RzcFor asset scale growth rate, RzjThe comprehensive depreciation rate is obtained;
and a second substep: calculating interest and fund rate of borrowing
And a third substep: calculating depreciation cost Frz=Azj×(1+Rzc/2)×Rzj
And a fourth substep: calculating operating capital Change Δ Ayy=ΔAld-ΔDldWherein Δ AldFor moving assets, Δ DldIs a mobile liability shift;
and a fifth substep: calculating balance D of interest and debt under common constrainti dx1=Di-1 dx+(Di-1+Ei-1)×Rzc×RzcfzWherein D isi -1 dxBalance of debt charged for the last year, Di-1Is the annual liability, Ei-1For the owner's right of the year, RzcfzIs the rate of assets liability;
and a sixth substep: calculating the cost of the charged interest F under the common constraintlx1=Frz×(1-Rzbh)×Di dx1In which F isrzAverage financing cost;
and a seventh substep: calculating the net amount of cash flow OCF generated by business activities under common constraints1=(Wxsq-Flx1)×(1-RIT)+Frz-ΔAyy+Flx1+Sjz-Sgy-StzWherein R isITFor the income tax rate, SjzFor asset depreciation losses, SgyThe earnings are changed for the fair value, StzTo return on investment;
and a substep eight: calculating cash inflow for financing activities under common constraintsWherein, CIyhFor the clear inflow of cash to the customer engineering, SsjIn order to pay for the investment income,for this annual equity fund inflow,increasing equity fund inflow for the next year;
and a substep nine: calculating cash inflow for funding activities under common constraints
And a substep of ten: calculating a first investment budget LA of the target enterprise under a common constraint1,
Wherein, Δ MCR1The lowest safety reserve payment under the common constraint is changed.
4. The power grid enterprise investment budgeting method under the multi-constraint condition based on the power sales amount prediction according to claim 3, wherein the third step comprises:
the first substep: calculating interest balance D under target profit constrainti dx2=(Wxsq-Wys)/[Frz×(1-Rzbh)]Wherein W isysA constraint value for the total profit;
and a second substep: calculating a charged interest fee F under the constraint of target profitlx2=Di dx2×Frz×(1-Rzbh);
And a third substep: calculating the net amount of cash flow OCF generated by business activities under the constraint of target profit2=(Wxsq-Flx2)×(1-RIT)+Frz-ΔAyy+Flx2+Sjz-Sgy-Stz
And a fourth substep: calculating net cash flow generated by financing activities under target profit constraints
And a fifth substep: funding activity cash inflow under calculated target profit constraints
And a sixth substep: calculating a second investment budget LA of the target enterprise under the target profit constraint2,
Wherein, Δ MCR2The minimum safe reserve payment amount changes under the constraint of target profit.
5. The power grid enterprise investment budgeting method under the multi-constraint condition based on the power sales amount prediction according to claim 4, wherein the fourth step comprises:
the first substep: calculating the net amount OCF of cash flow born by the operation under the constraint of the asset liability rate3Net cash flow FCF generated by financing activities under the constraint of asset liability rate3The sum of the total weight of the components,
wherein the total amount of the option interest is Ei-1The amount of the given assets transferred is AszThe rest-to-debt ratio is Rdxfz
And a second substep: calculating investment activity cash inflow under asset liability rate constraints
And a third substep: calculating a third investment budget LA of the target enterprise under the constraint of the asset liability rate3,
Wherein, Δ MCR3The change of the minimum safety reserve payment under the constraint of the asset load rate.
CN201710305798.4A 2017-05-03 2017-05-03 A kind of power grid enterprises investment budgey method under multi-constraint condition based on electricity sales amount prediction Pending CN107358307A (en)

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Cited By (3)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN109214449A (en) * 2018-08-28 2019-01-15 华北电力大学 A kind of electric grid investment needing forecasting method
CN109598618A (en) * 2018-09-12 2019-04-09 阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司 Data processing method, the determination method and apparatus of mobility time limit notch
CN110288141A (en) * 2019-06-18 2019-09-27 国网上海市电力公司 A Neural Network-Based Method for Predicting Capital Transfer Rate of Engineering Investment

Cited By (4)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN109214449A (en) * 2018-08-28 2019-01-15 华北电力大学 A kind of electric grid investment needing forecasting method
CN109598618A (en) * 2018-09-12 2019-04-09 阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司 Data processing method, the determination method and apparatus of mobility time limit notch
CN109598618B (en) * 2018-09-12 2022-12-16 创新先进技术有限公司 Data processing method, and method and device for determining fluidity deadline gap
CN110288141A (en) * 2019-06-18 2019-09-27 国网上海市电力公司 A Neural Network-Based Method for Predicting Capital Transfer Rate of Engineering Investment

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