CN107346519B - Failure calculation method for total consumption of renewable energy in integrated energy system - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to a failure calculation method for total consumption of renewable energy in an integrated energy system, and belongs to the technical field of operation and planning of the integrated energy system. The method considers the influence of uncertainty and correlation on intermittent renewable energy consumption and establishes an accurate comprehensive energy system uncertainty mathematical model. The upper limit of the external grid is considered as an uncertainty random variable, so that the calculation result is closer to reality. By adopting a design point searching method based on an iterative algorithm (Hasofer-Lind-Rackwitz-Fiessler) recommended by the structural safety committee, the failure probability that the external power grid cannot completely consume the intermittent renewable energy can be accurately calculated. The failure probability index is combined with other important economic and environmental indexes, so that a system operator can be helped to make a more reasonable planning scheme and operation strategy for the current situation of the comprehensive energy system, the cogeneration system and the power system.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a failure calculation method for total consumption of renewable energy in an integrated energy system, and belongs to the technical field of operation and planning of the integrated energy system.
Background
With the rapid development of intermittent renewable energy sources, power systems face more and more uncertainty factors. Although our country has continuously developed a policy for supporting new energy consumption in recent years, data released by the national energy agency in recent years shows that the problem of wind abandonment is not effectively solved, but rather, with the increase of installed capacity, the trend of wind abandonment is increasingly severe, and the problem becomes a stubborn problem which hinders the healthy development of our country's new energy industry. In thirteen five periods, the installed scale of the wind power generation in China is further enlarged, and the intermittent renewable energy consumption faces greater pressure. According to a report from the national energy agency, in 2016, the newly increased wind power grid-connected capacity of 681.3 ten thousand kilowatts in the five provinces (districts) in the northwest, and as far as 2016, the accumulated grid-connected capacity of 4329 thousand kilowatts accounts for 19.6 percent of the total installed power of the whole network. In 2016, the wind power generation amount is 524.64 hundred million kilowatt hours, which accounts for 8.4% of the total power generation amount of the whole grid; the utilization hours are 1424 hours, the wind abandon power is 262.25 hundred million kilowatt hours, and the wind abandon rate is 33.34 percent. In the five provinces (regions) in northwest, the running situation of wind power in Gansu, Xinjiang and Ningxia is the most severe, and the wind abandoning rate is 43.11%, 38.37% and 13.05% in sequence. In addition, the Shaanxi abandoned wind rate is 6.61%, and the wind abandoned and electricity limited phenomenon does not occur in Qinghai. In the operation and planning of the comprehensive energy system, the accurate evaluation of the capacity of the power system for consuming the renewable energy sources has important engineering significance. The calculation of the intermittent renewable energy total consumption failure probability needs to consider not only the uncertainty of variables such as the renewable energy random output, the cold and hot electrical load and the like, but also the correlation of cold, hot and electricity multi-energy variables. In addition, the upper limit of the renewable energy capacity consumed by the external power grid has a significant correlation with the wind-solar power generation and the thermoelectric load in the integrated energy system.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a failure calculation method for total consumption of renewable energy in a comprehensive energy system, so as to overcome the defect of failure probability calculation of the conventional random simulation method and meet the analysis, operation and planning requirements of the comprehensive energy system containing high-proportion random fluctuation wind power and uncertain load.
The invention provides a failure calculation method for the total consumption of renewable energy sources in an integrated energy system, which comprises the following steps:
(1) in a time period, respectively acquiring m active powers of m wind power plants accessed to the comprehensive energy system, n heat load powers of n building heating systems accessed to the comprehensive energy system and n electric load powers of n building power supply systems accessed to the comprehensive energy system; defining the power generation of a combined heat and power generation system and a wind power plant which are connected into an integrated energy system as renewable energy, acquiring the upper limit of the consumption power of the renewable energy in the time period from an external power grid which is merged into the integrated energy system, and setting: a grid-connected point is arranged between the external power grid and the comprehensive energy system, and the grid-connected point corresponds to upper limit variable data of the absorption power;
(2) according to the variable data collected in the step (1), respectively calculating an edge cumulative probability distribution function and a probability distribution type of active power of each wind power plant by adopting a parameter estimation method, respectively calculating an edge cumulative probability distribution function and a probability distribution type of heat load power of each building heating system, respectively calculating an edge cumulative probability distribution function and a probability distribution type of electric load power of each building power supply system, and calculating an edge cumulative probability distribution function and a probability distribution type of an upper limit of absorption power of renewable energy resources of a grid-connected point between an external power grid and a comprehensive energy system;
(3) performing hypothesis test on the edge cumulative probability distribution function and the probability distribution type obtained by calculation in the step (2) by adopting a hypothesis test method, performing the step (4) if the hypothesis test is passed, and returning to the step (2) if the hypothesis test is not passed;
(4) forming a matrix according to the variable data acquired in the step (1), wherein the row number of the matrix is the number of acquired variable data, the column number of the matrix represents the number of variables, and the number of the variables is as follows: m + n + n +1, calculating the average value mu, the standard deviation var and the correlation coefficient matrix R of the matrix;
(5) calculating a normal distribution correlation coefficient matrix R equivalent to the edge cumulative probability distribution function of the step (3) by using a probability equivalent change method according to the probability distribution type obtained in the step (3) and the standard deviation var and the correlation coefficient matrix R obtained in the step (4)0And a lower triangular matrix L0：
R0＝T(R,var)
Wherein T (-) represents an equivalent transformation formula
Is L0Is transposed;
(6) obtaining the heat-electricity ratio from the combined heat and power generation system connected with the comprehensive energy system, and establishing a limit state equation g of the renewable energy source completely consumed by the external power gridpowerThe following were used:
wherein: pgridUpper limit of absorption power, P, for the absorption of renewable energy for an external networki,windIs the active power, Q, of the ith wind farmi,loadIs the heat load power of the ith building, Pi,loadRepresents the electric load power of the ith building, and C represents the heat-power ratio of the cogeneration system;
(7) obtaining a lower triangular matrix L according to the step (5)0And (4) calculating to obtain a reliability index β by using the matrix average value mu obtained in the step (4) as an initial value by using a one-time reliability method according to the extreme state equation obtained in the step (6);
(8) calculating the failure probability P of the total consumption of the renewable energy sources in the comprehensive energy source system according to the reliability index β obtained in the step (7)f：
Pf＝Φ(-β)
Wherein Φ is an operation sign of the standard normal cumulative probability distribution.
The failure calculation method for the total consumption of the renewable energy sources in the comprehensive energy source system has the advantages that:
the failure calculation method for the total consumption of the renewable energy sources in the integrated energy source system considers the influence of uncertainty and correlation on the intermittent renewable energy source consumption and establishes an accurate integrated energy source system uncertainty mathematical model. The upper limit of the external grid is considered as an uncertainty random variable, so that the calculation result is closer to reality. By adopting a design point searching method based on an iterative algorithm (Hasofer-Lind-Rackwitz-Fiessler) recommended by the structural safety committee, the failure probability that the external power grid cannot completely consume the intermittent renewable energy can be accurately calculated. The failure probability index is combined with other important economic and environmental indexes, so that a system operator can be helped to make a more reasonable planning scheme and operation strategy for the current situation of the comprehensive energy system, the cogeneration system and the power system.
Detailed Description
The invention provides a failure calculation method for the total consumption of renewable energy sources in an integrated energy system, which comprises the following steps:
(1) in a time period, respectively acquiring m active powers of m wind power plants accessed to the comprehensive energy system, n heat load powers of n building heating systems accessed to the comprehensive energy system and n electric load powers of n building power supply systems accessed to the comprehensive energy system; defining the power generation of a combined heat and power generation system and a wind power plant which are connected into an integrated energy system as renewable energy, acquiring the upper limit of the consumption power of the renewable energy in the time period from an external power grid which is merged into the integrated energy system, and setting: a grid-connected point is arranged between the external power grid and the comprehensive energy system, and the grid-connected point corresponds to upper limit variable data of the absorption power;
(2) according to the variable data collected in the step (1), respectively calculating an edge cumulative probability distribution function and a probability distribution type of active power of each wind power plant by adopting a parameter estimation method, respectively calculating an edge cumulative probability distribution function and a probability distribution type of heat load power of each building heating system, respectively calculating an edge cumulative probability distribution function and a probability distribution type of electric load power of each building power supply system, and calculating an edge cumulative probability distribution function and a probability distribution type of an upper limit of absorption power of renewable energy resources of a grid-connected point between an external power grid and a comprehensive energy system;
(3) and (3) performing hypothesis test on the edge cumulative probability distribution function and the probability distribution type obtained by calculation in the step (2) by adopting a hypothesis test method. Assuming that there are various methods for the test, when the edge cumulative probability distribution function is a normal distribution, a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (Kolmogorov-Smirnov test) method can be used for the test; when the edge cumulative probability distribution function is in abnormal distribution, a Bayesian theory is adopted to carry out hypothesis testing (reference document Jiangbeihua, Van Fang, Bayesian hypothesis testing problem of several abnormal overall unknown parameters [ J ]. Nantong university Commission (Nature science edition), 2013, (01): 82-86.). If the hypothesis test is passed, performing the step (4), and if the hypothesis test is not passed, returning to the step (2);
(4) forming a matrix according to the variable data acquired in the step (1), wherein the row number of the matrix represents the number of acquired variable data, the number of variable data in the same time period is consistent, the column number of the matrix represents the number of variables, and the number of variables is as follows: m + n + n +1, namely m wind power plants + n building electrical loads + n building thermal loads +1 absorption power upper limit variables, and calculating the average value mu, the standard variance var and the correlation coefficient matrix R of the matrix, thereby reflecting the correlation of the comprehensive energy system;
(5) calculating a normal distribution correlation coefficient matrix R equivalent to the edge cumulative probability distribution function of the step (3) by using a probability equivalent change method according to the probability distribution type obtained in the step (3) and the standard deviation var and the correlation coefficient matrix R obtained in the step (4)0And a lower triangular matrix L0：
R0＝T(R,var)
Wherein T (. smallcircle.) represents an equivalent transformation formula (refer to Liu, P.L.and Der Kiureghian, A., Multivariate distribution models with descriptive references and scientific Engineering, 1986.1(2): pp.105-112.),
is L0Is transposed;
(6) obtaining the heat-electricity ratio from the combined heat and power generation system (running in a mode of heat fixed power) connected with the comprehensive energy system, and establishing a limit state equation g of the renewable energy source completely consumed by the external power gridpowerThe following were used:
wherein: pgridUpper limit of absorption power, P, for the absorption of renewable energy for an external networki,windFor the activity of the ith wind farmPower, Qi,loadIs the heat load power of the ith building, Pi,loadRepresents the electric load power of the ith building, and C represents the heat-power ratio of the cogeneration system;
(7) obtaining a lower triangular matrix L according to the step (5)0And (4) calculating to obtain a reliability index β, namely a Hasofer-Lind reliability index, by utilizing a one-time reliability method and a design point searching method based on an iterative algorithm (Hasofer-Lind-Rackwitz-Fiessler) recommended by a structural security Committee (Joint Committee of structural Safety, JCSS) and taking the matrix average value mu obtained in the step (4) as an initial value.
(8) Calculating the failure probability P of the total consumption of the renewable energy sources in the comprehensive energy source system according to the reliability index β obtained in the step (7)f：
Pf＝Φ(-β)
Wherein Φ is an operation sign of the standard normal cumulative probability distribution.
Claims (1)
1. A failure calculation method for the total consumption of renewable energy in an integrated energy system is characterized by comprising the following steps:
(1) in a time period, respectively acquiring m active powers of m wind power plants accessed to the comprehensive energy system, n heat load powers of n building heating systems accessed to the comprehensive energy system and n electric load powers of n building power supply systems accessed to the comprehensive energy system; defining the power generation of a combined heat and power generation system and a wind power plant which are connected into an integrated energy system as renewable energy, acquiring the upper limit of the consumption power of the renewable energy in the time period from an external power grid which is merged into the integrated energy system, and setting: a grid-connected point is arranged between the external power grid and the comprehensive energy system, and the grid-connected point corresponds to upper limit variable data of the absorption power;
(2) according to the variable data collected in the step (1), respectively calculating an edge cumulative probability distribution function and a probability distribution type of active power of each wind power plant by adopting a parameter estimation method, respectively calculating an edge cumulative probability distribution function and a probability distribution type of heat load power of each building heating system, respectively calculating an edge cumulative probability distribution function and a probability distribution type of electric load power of each building power supply system, and calculating an edge cumulative probability distribution function and a probability distribution type of an upper limit of absorption power of renewable energy resources of a grid-connected point between an external power grid and a comprehensive energy system;
(3) performing hypothesis test on the edge cumulative probability distribution function and the probability distribution type obtained by calculation in the step (2) by adopting a hypothesis test method, performing the step (4) if the hypothesis test is passed, and returning to the step (2) if the hypothesis test is not passed;
(4) forming a matrix according to the variable data acquired in the step (1), wherein the row number of the matrix is the number of acquired variable data, the column number of the matrix represents the number of variables, and the number of the variables is as follows: m + n + n +1, calculating the average value mu, the standard deviation var and the correlation coefficient matrix R of the matrix;
(5) calculating a normal distribution correlation coefficient matrix R equivalent to the edge cumulative probability distribution function of the step (3) by using a probability equivalent change method according to the probability distribution type obtained in the step (3) and the standard deviation var and the correlation coefficient matrix R obtained in the step (4)0And a lower triangular matrix L0：
R0＝Y(R,var)
Wherein Y (-) represents an equivalent transformation formula
Is L0Is transposed;
(6) obtaining the heat-electricity ratio from the combined heat and power generation system connected with the comprehensive energy system, and establishing a limit state equation g of the renewable energy source completely consumed by the external power gridpowerThe following were used:
wherein: pgridUpper limit of absorption power, P, for the absorption of renewable energy for an external networki,windIs the active power, Q, of the ith wind farmi,loadIs the heat load power of the ith building, Pi,loadRepresents the electric load power of the ith building, and C represents the heat-power ratio of the cogeneration system;
(7) obtaining a lower triangular matrix L according to the step (5)0And (4) calculating to obtain a reliability index β, namely a Hasofer-Lind reliability index, by utilizing a one-time reliability method and a design point searching method based on an iterative algorithm recommended by a structural safety committee and taking the matrix average value mu obtained in the step (4) as an initial value;
(8) calculating the failure probability P of the total consumption of the renewable energy sources in the comprehensive energy source system according to the reliability index β obtained in the step (7)f：
Pf＝Φ(-β)
Wherein Φ is an operation sign of the standard normal cumulative probability distribution.
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