CN107346519A - The failure computational methods that regenerative resource all dissolves in a kind of integrated energy system - Google Patents
The failure computational methods that regenerative resource all dissolves in a kind of integrated energy system Download PDFInfo
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- CN107346519A CN107346519A CN201710483905.2A CN201710483905A CN107346519A CN 107346519 A CN107346519 A CN 107346519A CN 201710483905 A CN201710483905 A CN 201710483905A CN 107346519 A CN107346519 A CN 107346519A
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
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Abstract
The present invention relates to the failure computational methods that regenerative resource in a kind of integrated energy system all dissolves, and belong to integrated energy system operation and planning technology field.This method considers uncertain and influence of the correlation to intermittent renewable energy consumption, establishes accurate integrated energy system uncertain mathematics model.The consumption upper limit of external electrical network is considered as a Uncertain Stochastic variable so that result of calculation more closing to reality.The design point searching method based on iterative algorithm (Hasofer Lind Rackwitz Fiessler) recommended using the strcture safety committee, can accurately calculate external electrical network can not all dissolve the failure probability of the intermittent renewable energy.Failure probability index combines other Important Economics and environmental index, and the operator that can help to unite makes more rational programme and operation reserve for integrated energy system, co-generation unit and power system present situation.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the failure computational methods that regenerative resource in a kind of integrated energy system all dissolves, belong to comprehensive
Energy system operation and planning technology field.
Background technology
With the fast development of the intermittent renewable energy, power system faces increasing uncertain factor.To the greatest extent
Pipe China constantly puts into effect the policy for supporting new energy consumption in recent years, and the data that National Energy Board issues recently are but shown, abandon wind
Problem not only fails effectively to solve, and on the contrary with the rising of installed capacity, the situation that grows in intensity is presented, turns into and hinders the new energy in China
The persistent ailment that source industry develops in a healthy way.During 13, China's wind-powered electricity generation generator installation scale will also further expand, intermittent
Regenerative resource consumption faces bigger pressure.Report from National Energy Board, 2016, northwest five province (area) increased wind-powered electricity generation newly simultaneously
681.3 ten thousand kilowatts of network capacity amount, by the end of the year in 2016, add up 43,290,000 kilowatts of grid connection capacity, account for the 19.6% of the whole network total installed capacity.
2016, the kilowatt hour of wind power generation capacity 524.64 hundred million, account for the 8.4% of the whole network gross generation；Using hourage 1424 hours, wind is abandoned
The kilowatt hour of electricity 262.25 hundred million, abandons wind rate 33.34%.In northwest five province (area), Gansu, Xinjiang, Ningxia wind-powered electricity generation developmental situation are most
For sternness, abandon wind rate and be followed successively by 43.11%, 38.37% and 13.05%.In addition, it is 6.61% that wind rate is abandoned in Shaanxi, Qinghai is not sent out
Raw wind of abandoning is rationed the power supply phenomenon.During integrated energy system runs and planned, power system consumption regenerative resource is assessed exactly and is contributed
Ability has important engineering significance.The intermittent renewable energy, which fully dissolves CALCULATION OF FAILURE PROBABILITY, not only to be needed to consider renewable energy
The uncertainty of the variable such as source randomness output and cold and hot electrical load, it is also necessary to consider the related pass of cool and thermal power multipotency variable
System.In addition, the wind light generation amount and thermoelectricity in the upper limit and integrated energy system of external electrical network consumption regenerative resource capacity are born
Lotus also has significant correlation.
The content of the invention
The purpose of the present invention is to propose to the failure computational methods that regenerative resource in a kind of integrated energy system all dissolves,
To overcome existing Method of Stochastic to calculate the weak point of failure probability, meet containing random fluctuation wind-powered electricity generation at high proportion and do not know
Analysis, operation and the planning requirement of the integrated energy system of property load.
The failure computational methods that regenerative resource all dissolves in integrated energy system proposed by the present invention, including following step
Suddenly：
(1) in a period of time, collection accesses m active power of m wind power plant of integrated energy system, connect respectively
Enter n thermic load power of n building heating system of integrated energy system and n building of access integrated energy system
N electric load power of electric power system；The generating of co-generation unit of definition access integrated energy system and the hair of wind power plant
Electricity is regenerative resource, and the external electrical network being incorporated to from integrated energy system obtains the consumption power of regenerative resource in the period
The upper limit, setting：There are a grid entry point, the corresponding consumption upper limit of the power of the grid entry point between external electrical network and integrated energy system
Variable data；
(2) variable data gathered according to above-mentioned steps (1), using method for parameter estimation, calculates each wind power plant respectively
The edge cumulative distribution function and probability distribution of active power, each building heating system thermic load is calculated respectively
The edge cumulative distribution function and probability distribution of power, each building electric power system electric load power is calculated respectively
Edge cumulative distribution function and probability distribution, calculate between external electrical network and integrated energy system that grid entry point can be again
The edge cumulative distribution function and probability distribution of the consumption upper limit of the power of the raw energy；
(3) use hypothesis testing method, the edge cumulative distribution function that above-mentioned steps (2) are calculated respectively and
Probability distribution carries out hypothesis testing, if by assuming that examining, progress step (4), if not by assuming that inspection, is returned
Step (2)；
(4) variable data gathered according to above-mentioned steps (1), a matrix is formed, the line number of the matrix is collection variable
The number of data, matrix column number represent the number of variable, and the number of variable is：M+n+n+1, calculate the average value of the matrix
Mu, standard variance var and correlation matrix R；
(5) standard variance var that the probability distribution and above-mentioned steps (4) obtained according to above-mentioned steps (3) obtains and
Correlation matrix R, using probability equivalence changes method, edge cumulative distribution function of calculating and above-mentioned steps (3) etc.
The normal distribution correlation matrix R of effect0With lower triangular matrix L0：
R0=T (R, var)
Wherein, T () represents equivalent transformation formulaFor L0For transposition；
(6) hotspot stress is obtained from the co-generation unit of access integrated energy system, establishes regenerative resource by external electrical
The limit state equation g that net all dissolvespowerIt is as follows：
Wherein：PgridThe consumption upper limit of the power of regenerative resource, P are dissolved for external electrical networki,windFor i-th wind power plant
Active power, Qi,loadFor the thermic load power of i-th of building, Pi,loadRepresent the electric load power of i-th of building, C tables
Show the hotspot stress of co-generation unit；
(7) the lower triangular matrix L obtained according to step (5)0The limit state equation obtained with step (6), using once
Low confidence limit is calculated as initial value in reliability method, the matrix average value mu obtained using above-mentioned steps (4)；
(8) Low confidence limit obtained according to above-mentioned steps (7), is calculated regenerative resource in integrated energy system
The failure probability P all dissolvedf：
Pf=Φ (- β)
Wherein, Φ is the oeprator of standard normal accumulated probability distribution.
The failure computational methods that regenerative resource all dissolves in integrated energy system proposed by the present invention, its advantage are：
The failure computational methods that regenerative resource all dissolves in the integrated energy system of the present invention, it is contemplated that uncertain
With influence of the correlation to intermittent renewable energy consumption, accurate integrated energy system uncertain mathematics mould is established
Type.The consumption upper limit of external electrical network is considered as a Uncertain Stochastic variable so that result of calculation more closing to reality.Adopt
The design point based on iterative algorithm (Hasofer-Lind-Rackwitz-Fiessler) recommended with the strcture safety committee
Searching method, can accurately calculate external electrical network can not all dissolve the failure probability of the intermittent renewable energy.Failure probability
Index combines other Important Economics and environmental index, and the operator that can help to unite is for integrated energy system, co-generation unit
More rational programme and operation reserve are made with power system present situation.
Embodiment
The failure computational methods that regenerative resource all dissolves in integrated energy system proposed by the present invention, including following step
Suddenly：
(1) in a period of time, collection accesses m active power of m wind power plant of integrated energy system, connect respectively
Enter n thermic load power of n building heating system of integrated energy system and n building of access integrated energy system
N electric load power of electric power system；The generating of co-generation unit of definition access integrated energy system and the hair of wind power plant
Electricity is regenerative resource, and the external electrical network being incorporated to from integrated energy system obtains the consumption power of regenerative resource in the period
The upper limit, setting：There are a grid entry point, the corresponding consumption upper limit of the power of the grid entry point between external electrical network and integrated energy system
Variable data；
(2) variable data gathered according to above-mentioned steps (1), using method for parameter estimation, calculates each wind power plant respectively
The edge cumulative distribution function and probability distribution of active power, each building heating system thermic load is calculated respectively
The edge cumulative distribution function and probability distribution of power, each building electric power system electric load power is calculated respectively
Edge cumulative distribution function and probability distribution, calculate between external electrical network and integrated energy system that grid entry point can be again
The edge cumulative distribution function and probability distribution of the consumption upper limit of the power of the raw energy；
(3) use hypothesis testing method, the edge cumulative distribution function that above-mentioned steps (2) are calculated respectively and
Probability distribution carries out hypothesis testing.Hypothesis testing can have a variety of methods, and when edge, cumulative distribution function is normal state
During distribution, it can use Ke Ermo can inspection (Kolmogorov-Smirnov test) method inspection of love-Si meter loves；Side
When edge cumulative distribution function is Non-Gaussian Distribution, hypothesis testing (bibliography Jiang Peihua, model are carried out using bayesian theory
Bayes Hypothesis Test problem [J] Nantong University's journals (natural science edition) of several nonnormal population unknown parameters of the good of state,
2013,(01):82-86.).If by assuming that examining, step (4) is carried out, if not by assuming that examining, return to step
(2)；
(4) variable data gathered according to above-mentioned steps (1), forms a matrix, and the line number of the matrix represents that collection becomes
The number of data is measured, the variable data number in the same period is consistent, and matrix column number represents the number of variable, of variable
Number is：M+n+n+1, i.e. the m consumption upper limit of the power variable of building thermic load+1 of building electric load+n of wind power plant+n,
The average value mu, standard variance var and correlation matrix R of the matrix are calculated, embodies the correlation of integrated energy system；
(5) standard variance var that the probability distribution and above-mentioned steps (4) obtained according to above-mentioned steps (3) obtains and
Correlation matrix R, using probability equivalence changes method, edge cumulative distribution function of calculating and above-mentioned steps (3) etc.
The normal distribution correlation matrix R of effect0With lower triangular matrix L0：
R0=T (R, var)
Wherein, T () represent equivalent transformation formula (refer to document Liu, P.L.and Der Kiureghian, A.,
Multivariate distribution models with prescribed marginals and
covariances.Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics,1986.1(2):Pp.105-112.),For L0
For transposition；
(6) hotspot stress is obtained from the co-generation unit (electricity determining by heat mode is run) of access integrated energy system, established
The limit state equation g that regenerative resource is all dissolved by external electrical networkpowerIt is as follows：
Wherein：PgridThe consumption upper limit of the power of regenerative resource, P are dissolved for external electrical networki,windFor i-th wind power plant
Active power, Qi,loadFor the thermic load power of i-th of building, Pi,loadRepresent the electric load power of i-th of building, C tables
Show the hotspot stress of co-generation unit；
(7) the lower triangular matrix L obtained according to step (5)0The limit state equation obtained with step (6), using once
Reliability method, recommended using the strcture safety committee (Joint Committee of Structure Safety, JCSS)
The design point searching method based on iterative algorithm (Hasofer-Lind-Rackwitz-Fiessler), with above-mentioned steps (4)
Obtained matrix average value mu is initial value, and Low confidence limit is calculated, i.e. Hasofer-Lind reliability refer to
Mark.
(8) Low confidence limit obtained according to above-mentioned steps (7), is calculated regenerative resource in integrated energy system
The failure probability P all dissolvedf：
Pf=Φ (- β)
Wherein, Φ is the oeprator of standard normal accumulated probability distribution.
Claims (1)
1. the failure computational methods that regenerative resource all dissolves in a kind of integrated energy system, it is characterised in that this method includes
Following steps：
(1) in a period of time, m active power of m wind power plant of collection access integrated energy system, access are comprehensive respectively
Close the n building power supply of the n thermic load power and access integrated energy system of n building heating system of energy resource system
N electric load power of system；Definition accesses the generating of co-generation unit of integrated energy system and the generating of wind power plant is
Regenerative resource, the external electrical network being incorporated to from integrated energy system are obtained on the consumption power of regenerative resource in the period
Limit, setting：There is a grid entry point between external electrical network and integrated energy system, the corresponding consumption upper limit of the power of the grid entry point becomes
Measure data；
(2) variable data gathered according to above-mentioned steps (1), using method for parameter estimation, it is active to calculate each wind power plant respectively
The edge cumulative distribution function and probability distribution of power, each building heating system thermic load power is calculated respectively
Edge cumulative distribution function and probability distribution, calculate the side of each building electric power system electric load power respectively
Edge cumulative distribution function and probability distribution, calculate grid entry point renewable energy between external electrical network and integrated energy system
The edge cumulative distribution function and probability distribution of the consumption upper limit of the power in source；
(3) hypothesis testing method is used, the edge cumulative distribution function and probability that above-mentioned steps (2) are calculated respectively
Distribution pattern carries out hypothesis testing, if by assuming that examining, progress step (4), if not by assuming that examining, return to step
(2)；
(4) variable data gathered according to above-mentioned steps (1), a matrix is formed, the line number of the matrix is collection variable data
Number, matrix column number represents the number of variable, and the number of variable is：M+n+n+1, calculate average value mu, the mark of the matrix
Quasi- variance var and correlation matrix R；
(5) according to the probability distribution that above-mentioned steps (3) obtain and standard variance var that above-mentioned steps (4) obtain and related
Coefficient matrix R, using probability equivalence changes method, calculate equivalent with the edge cumulative distribution function of above-mentioned steps (3)
Normal distribution correlation matrix R0With lower triangular matrix L0：
R0=T (R, var)
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(6) hotspot stress is obtained from the co-generation unit of access integrated energy system, it is complete by external electrical network establishes regenerative resource
The limit state equation g of portion's consumptionpowerIt is as follows：
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Wherein：PgridThe consumption upper limit of the power of regenerative resource, P are dissolved for external electrical networki,windFor the wattful power of i-th of wind power plant
Rate, Qi,loadFor the thermic load power of i-th of building, Pi,loadThe electric load power of i-th of building is represented, C represents thermoelectricity
The hotspot stress of co-generation system；
(7) the lower triangular matrix L obtained according to step (5)0The limit state equation obtained with step (6), utilize a reliability
Low confidence limit is calculated as initial value in method, the matrix average value mu obtained using above-mentioned steps (4)；
(8) Low confidence limit obtained according to above-mentioned steps (7), it is whole that regenerative resource in integrated energy system is calculated
The failure probability P of consumptionf：
Pf=Φ (- β)
Wherein, Φ is the oeprator of standard normal accumulated probability distribution.
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Cited By (1)
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| CN109190814A (en) * | 2018-08-22 | 2019-01-11 | 国网山西省电力公司太原供电公司 | A kind of business model calculation method of energy internet operators |
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