CN107292768A - A kind of photovoltaic generating system daily generation Fuzzy Probability Calculation method and device - Google Patents
A kind of photovoltaic generating system daily generation Fuzzy Probability Calculation method and device Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The embodiment of the invention discloses a kind of photovoltaic generating system daily generation Fuzzy Probability Calculation method and device, for solving distributed photovoltaic power generation system daily generation computational methods of the prior art all without the uncertainty and randomness for considering influence factor comprehensively, computational methods applicability, practicality and application are also difficult to the technical problem being met.Present invention method includes：According to the daily generation data of photovoltaic generating system, the n dimension Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy sets for the daily generation fuzzy uncertainty for determining photovoltaic generating system are calculated；Influence according to intensity of sunshine, sunshine temperature rise, sunshine shade, sunshine drift angle to photovoltaic generating system, calculates the n dimension Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy sets of the period generated energy of photovoltaic generating system；The daily generation that Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy set calculates photovoltaic generating system is tieed up according to the n of the period generated energy of photovoltaic generating system；The daily generation fuzzy probability for determining photovoltaic generating system is calculated according to the daily generation of photovoltaic generating system.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to Power System and its Automation field, more particularly to a kind of photovoltaic generating system daily generation are fuzzy
Method for calculating probability and device.
Background technology
It is smart city development trend to develop distributed solar electricity generation system, and photovoltaic generation and photo-thermal power generation are solar energy
Generate electricity two kinds of different forms.In recent years, photovoltaic-light-heat integration distributed generation system turns into the direction of Developing mainstream and ground
Study carefully the theme of focus.
The principle of photovoltaic generation is, will too using the semiconductors such as vacuum device, alkali metal, magnetic fluid or the metal material temperature difference
Positive heat energy is directly translated into electric energy and realizes generating.The principle of photo-thermal power generation is, using the form of light and heat collection by working medium such as water
High-temperature high-pressure steam is heated to, by heat engines such as high-temperature high-pressure steam driving steam turbines, then by heat engine driving generating set hair
Electricity, realizes generating, its electricity generating principle is similar with conventional thermodynamic generating using the conversion of sun optical and thermal-machine-electricity various energy resources,
But its energy is not the fuel such as coal, oil or gas but sunshine.
At present, photovoltaic generation turns into highly developed technology, and its cost of electricity-generating has already decreased to 70,000,000 yuan/ten thousand kilowatts
Level.Photo-thermal power generation mainly has four kinds of tower, slot type, dish-style and Fresnel.The principle of slot type sunlight heat power generation system
It is to assemble solar heat using multiple series-parallel groove profile parabolic concentrator heat collectors, heating working medium enters to high temperature and high pressure steam
And driving steam turbine generating set generates electricity.It is molecular by many mirrors that the electricity generating principle of dish-style sunlight heat power generation system, which is,
Parabolic mirror, solar energy is gathered in paraboloidal focus, makes in parabola receiver working medium heating working medium to high temperature
High steam, drives engine power generation.The electricity generating principle of Fresnel solar-thermal generating system is, using the optically focused of fresnel structure
Mirror assembles solar heat, and heating working medium to high temperature and high pressure steam, driving steam turbine generating set generates electricity, and its generating efficiency is low, but
Simple in construction, construction and maintenance cost are relatively low.The principle of tower-type solar thermal power generating system is inhaled using on middle absorbent tower top
Device aggregation solar heat is received, heating working medium to high temperature and high pressure steam, driving steam turbine generating set is generated electricity, and one is installed around tower
The heliostat of fixed number amount, the cavity that sunshine is gathered to the receiver of tower top by heliostat produces high temperature, then by absorbing
The working medium of device is heated and produces high-temperature steam, and pushing turbine is generated electricity.This several photo-thermal power generation mode is turned by light
Heat is changed to produce steam again to drive steam turbine to be generated electricity.
Sunshine can have great otherness in different zones radiation intensity, sunshine-duration, in same place because of cloud layer
Block to form shade and cause also have great otherness, randomness in different time and spatially intensity of sunshine and obscure
Property, this uncertain characteristic determines that photovoltaic and solar-thermal generating system are exerted oneself also and have great otherness, randomness and fuzzy
Property.Therefore, the size of photovoltaic and solar-thermal generating system power output is determined, it is necessary to strong to solar radiation in the region
Degree, sunshine-duration carry out probability analysis or fuzzy analysis, Probabilistic Fuzzy analysis, will also be in different time and spatially sunshine is strong
Degree carries out probability analysis or fuzzy analysis, Probabilistic Fuzzy analysis.
Using the electricity generating principle that continues of battery energy storage, photovoltaic generating system continues hair when can be in cloudy day on daytime or night
Electricity or continuous generating.But it continues, generating or continuous generating capacity depend on battery energy storage capacity, efficiency and control mode etc.
Factor, these factors influence battery energy storage continues electricity generation system power output level.Using fuse salt energy storage, light can be also realized
Heat continues when generating electricity in cloudy day on daytime or night to generate electricity or continuously generates electricity.As photovoltaic generation, solar-thermal generating system connects
Supervention electricity or continuous generating capacity depend on the factors such as fuse salt stored energy capacitance, energy conversion efficiency and Flexible Control mode, its
Power output level is also because a variety of uncertain factors influence and have very big randomness and ambiguity.
Countries in the world regenerative resource accesses in power network and rapid growth trend is presented in recent years.Photovoltaic generation access growth is most
Fast, annual growth is 60%；Next to that wind-power electricity generation and bio-fuel generate electricity, annual growth is respectively 27% and 18%.Work
Industry and informationization portion predict that the year two thousand thirty whole nation electric automobile recoverable amount is up to 60,000,000, and peak value charge power will reach
0.42TW, accounts for the 18% of estimated total installation of generating capacity 2.32TW.Therefore, distributed power generation, energy storage and charging system for electric automobile exist
Access is a kind of inevitable trend to urban power distribution network on a large scale.With the Cross support and promotion of national policy and industry development,
In certain space, such as the large user such as the small user such as city dweller and commercial establishment, community, industrial area group is distributed
Photovoltaic generating system can form the trend of fast development, and photovoltaic and photo-thermal power generation integral system also would indicate that powerful development
Situation.Distributed energy storage system be it is a kind of access the distributed system that voltage class and access point are fixed, including compressed hydrogen energy storage,
Battery energy storage, super capacitor energy-storage etc., energy storage power can be soft controllable；Electric automobile distributed charging system is a kind of access voltage
Grade and the variable distributed system of access point, charge power can be soft controllable, and randomness is very big.Distributed power generation fluctuation,
Having a rest property, randomness and charging electric vehicle are uncertain so that single distributed power generation, electricity consumption and the more randomness of charging,
The large user such as the small user such as city dweller and commercial establishment, community, industrial area group distributed power generation, energy storage and electric automobile
The interactive relationship of charging system can further increase the randomness and ambiguity of distributed power output.
For stochastic uncertainty, traditionally analyzed and handled random uncertain using Probability Statistics Theory
The information of property, for example, be characterized the probability density function and probability-distribution function of value to construct uncertainty to average and variance
The probabilistic model of event or parameter, describes the probability of happening characteristic and power, voltage and current of uncertain event etc. not true
The wave characteristic of qualitative parameter.
For fuzzy uncertainty, traditionally analyzed and handled fuzzy not true using Fuzzy Analysis
Qualitatively information.Using the not smart of Zadeh fuzzy sets or TYPE1 fuzzy set imitations and description fuzzy uncertainty event or parameter
Breath is firmly believed, mainly uses the method for individual layer membership function to simulate fuzzy uncertainty event or parameter, to be subordinate to
Angle value is described.In real application systems, uncertain event becomes to become increasingly complex, uncertain parameter substantial amounts and
And relation is complicated, event or parameter and each other fog-level of information in itself are substantially increased, it is fuzzy based on Zadeh
The individual layer membership function method of collection and TYPE1 fuzzy sets seems clearly disadvantageous, with being difficult in direct analog information
Analyze and handle these fuzzy uncertainty events or parameter.On the basis of TYPE1 fuzzy sets, Zadeh is proposed based on two
The TYPE2 fuzzy sets of layer membership function, further enhancing to fuzzy uncertainty event or parameter disposal ability.
In real application systems, can also exist simultaneously at random with obscuring two kinds of probabilistic events or parameter, and
Its reciprocation, mutually it is superimposed.Traditional probability analysis method and Fuzzy Analysis is limited by itself mechanism, in processing
This system at random with fuzzy uncertainty event or parameter when become clearly disadvantageous, analytical effect can not be close to actual
Scene.Therefore, fuzzy theory merges with probability theory and forms a kind of developing direction and trend in recent years, gives solution never
The tempting thinking and method of certain problem.A kind of introduced fuzzy theory in traditional probability theory, such as random set,
Fuzzy random sets, fuzzy random variable；Another is that probability theory is incorporated into fuzzy theory, such as unstable fuzzy set,
Probability set and Probabilistic Fuzzy collection.Prominent, on the basis of TYPE2 fuzzy sets, random theory is incorporated into biography by Probabilistic Fuzzy collection
In the fuzzy theory of system, the stochastic behaviour of Uncertain Stochastic and fuzzy event or parameter is described with fuzzy membership, is formed
N ties up the fuzzy set form of membership function.
The large user such as the small user such as city dweller and commercial establishment, community, industrial area group's distributed photovoltaic power generation system
System is exactly such a while having relation complicated and interactive random and fuzzy uncertainty event or the system of parameter.
Possess the small user of the new energy such as the city dweller of distributed photovoltaic power generation system and commercial establishment, community, industrial area etc. new
The energy large user group, under the influence of various Uncertain Stochastics and fuzzy event or parameter, its daily generation become more with
Machine characteristic and fuzzy behaviour.Conventional distributed photovoltaic power generation system daily generation generally uses deterministic computational methods, some
Also the indeterminacy of calculation method of probability analysis is used.The method of deterministic parameters calculation is typically assuming that solar radiation in region
Intensity, sunshine-duration and user location are in different time and spatially intensity of sunshine, sunshine-duration, sunshine shade, sunshine
Inclination angle calculates distributed photovoltaic power generation system daily generation in the case of all determining, does not also account for generating electricity or connecting as continuing
The fuse salt energy storage installed capacity of the battery energy storage capacity or solar-thermal generating system of the photovoltaic generating system of supervention electricity, energy storage shape
The influence of the factors such as state, energy conversion efficiency, power distribution network pressure regulation requirement and Flexible Control mode, result of calculation is uniqueness and true
Qualitatively, the actual conditions of reaction profile formula photovoltaic generating system daily generation are tended not to.And the computational methods of probability analysis
Typically distributed photovoltaic power generation system is calculated in the case where only assuming the single factors such as intensity of sunshine for uncertain factor
Daily generation, result of calculation is the probable value with certain confidence level.In fact, distributed photovoltaic power generation system daily generation
Solar radiation intensity, sunshine-duration and its probability or fuzziness are determined in region, also by user location in different time
Spatially intensity of sunshine, sunshine-duration, sunshine shade, sunshine inclination angle and its probability or fuzziness are determined, while also depending on
Stored up in the battery energy storage capacity for the photovoltaic generating system for generating electricity or continuously generating electricity as continuing or the fuse salt of solar-thermal generating system
The factors such as energy installed capacity, energy storage state, energy conversion efficiency, power distribution network pressure regulation requirement and Flexible Control mode.Moreover, these
Influence factor is usually constructed with stochastic uncertainty or fuzzy uncertainty, or he is that have random and fuzzy uncertainty, past
Exist toward with random and fuzzy uncertainty event or parameter.It can be seen that, what distributed photovoltaic power generation system daily generation was calculated
Prior art is all without the uncertainty and randomness for considering influence factor comprehensively, computational methods applicability, practicality and application
Property is also difficult to be met.
The content of the invention
The embodiments of the invention provide a kind of photovoltaic generating system daily generation Fuzzy Probability Calculation method and device, solve
Distributed photovoltaic power generation system daily generation computational methods of the prior art are all without considering the not true of influence factors comprehensively
Qualitative and randomness, computational methods applicability, practicality and application are also difficult to the technical problem being met.
A kind of photovoltaic generating system daily generation Fuzzy Probability Calculation method provided in an embodiment of the present invention, including：
According to the daily generation data of the photovoltaic generating system of the user got, the day for determining photovoltaic generating system is calculated
The first n dimension Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy sets of generated energy fuzzy uncertainty；
Influence according to intensity of sunshine, sunshine temperature rise, sunshine shade, sunshine drift angle to photovoltaic generating system, calculates photovoltaic
The 2nd n dimension Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy sets of the period generated energy of electricity generation system；
Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy set is tieed up according to the 2nd n of the period generated energy of photovoltaic generating system and calculates photovoltaic generating system
Daily generation；
The daily generation fuzzy probability for determining photovoltaic generating system is calculated according to the daily generation of photovoltaic generating system.
Preferably, according to the daily generation data of the photovoltaic generating system of the user got, calculate and determine photovoltaic generation
The first n dimension Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy sets of the daily generation fuzzy uncertainty of system include：
According to the daily generation data of the photovoltaic generating system of the user got, determined by daily generation fuzzy set public
Formula calculates extremely low, very low, low, relatively low, medium, higher, high, very high, high 9 for the daily generation for determining photovoltaic generating system
The first n dimension Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy sets of individual fuzzy uncertainty, daily generation fuzzy set determines that formula is specially：
EHi=(EHiV1,EHiV2,...,EHiVn)=[(EHiV11,EHiV12,EHiV13,...,EHiV1q；kHiV1),
(EHiV21,EHiV22,EHiV23,...,EHiV2q；kHiV2),
…
(EHiVn1,EHiVn2,EHiVn3,...,EHiVnq；kHiVn)]；
Wherein, EHiTrapezoidal fuzzy set, E are tieed up for i-th of n of daily generationHiV1、EHiV2、…、EHiVnAnd kHiV1、kHiV2、…、
kHiVnRespectively i-th n of daily generation tie up trapezoidal Fuzzy-valued 1, value 2 ..., value n fuzzy set and degree of membership coefficient, EHiV1j、
EHiV2j、…、EHiVnj(j=1,2,3 ..., 9) it is respectively that i-th of daily generation fuzzy uncertainty value of daily generation is wide n-th
J-th of fuzzy number of the trapezoidal fuzzy set of justice.
Preferably, the influence according to intensity of sunshine, sunshine temperature rise, sunshine shade, sunshine drift angle to photovoltaic generating system, meter
Calculating the 2nd n dimension Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy sets of the period generated energy of photovoltaic generating system includes：
Influence according to intensity of sunshine, sunshine temperature rise, sunshine shade, sunshine drift angle to photovoltaic generating system, passes through the period
Generated energy asks for the 2nd n dimension Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy sets that formula calculates the period generated energy of photovoltaic generating system, period generated energy
Asking for formula is specially：
Wherein,Respectively in historical data with intensity of sunshine period t (t=1,2 ..., NSH) value k
A (a=1,2 ..., n) individual trapezoidal fuzzy set b (b=1,2 ..., probability and fuzzy number that q) fuzzy number occurs,Respectively in historical data with sunshine temperature rise period t value k a (a=1,2 ..., it is n) individual trapezoidal fuzzy
Collect b (b=1,2 ..., q) fuzzy number occur probability and fuzzy number,With sunshine respectively in historical data
Shade period t value k a (a=1,2 ..., n) individual trapezoidal fuzzy set fuzzy number occur probability and fuzzy number,Respectively in historical data with sunshine drift angle period t value k a (a=1,2 ..., n) individual trapezoidal fuzzy set
B (b=1,2 ..., q) fuzzy number occur probability and fuzzy number,With sunshine respectively in historical data
Time period t value k a (a=1,2 ..., n) individual trapezoidal fuzzy set b (b=1,2 ..., the q) probability that fuzzy number occurs
And fuzzy number.
Preferably, Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy set is tieed up according to the 2nd n of the period generated energy of photovoltaic generating system and calculates photovoltaic hair
The daily generation of electric system includes：
Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy set is tieed up according to the 2nd n of the period generated energy of photovoltaic generating system public affairs are asked for by daily generation
Formula calculates the daily generation of photovoltaic generating system, and daily generation asks for formula and is specially：
Wherein, kPVEFor photovoltaic power generation plate photoelectric conversion factors,Represent NSHThe union of individual fuzzy set.
Preferably, in addition to：
Calculate photovoltaic generating system daily generation and daily generation in historical data it is extremely low, very low, low, relatively low, in
Deng the similarity of, higher, high, very high, high 9 fuzzy quantities, and according to Similarity Measure maximum similarity.
Preferably, calculated according to the daily generation of photovoltaic generating system and determine that the daily generation of photovoltaic generating system is fuzzy general
Rate includes：
The day that formula calculates determination photovoltaic generating system is asked for by daily generation fuzzy probability according to maximum similarity
Generated energy fuzzy probability, daily generation fuzzy probability asks for formula and is specially：
Wherein,For similarity,For maximum similarity.
A kind of photovoltaic generating system daily generation Fuzzy Probability Calculation device provided in an embodiment of the present invention, including：
First computing module, for the daily generation data of the photovoltaic generating system according to the user got, calculates true
Determine the first n dimension Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy sets of the daily generation fuzzy uncertainty of photovoltaic generating system；
Second computing module, for according to intensity of sunshine, sunshine temperature rise, sunshine shade, sunshine drift angle to photovoltaic generation system
The influence of system, calculates the 2nd n dimension Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy sets of the period generated energy of photovoltaic generating system；
3rd computing module, the 2nd n for the period generated energy according to photovoltaic generating system ties up Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy set
Calculate the daily generation of photovoltaic generating system；
4th computing module, determines that the day of photovoltaic generating system is sent out for being calculated according to the daily generation of photovoltaic generating system
Electricity fuzzy probability.
Preferably, the first computing module includes：
First computing unit, for the daily generation data of the photovoltaic generating system according to the user got, passes through day
Generated energy fuzzy set determine formula calculate determine photovoltaic generating system daily generation it is extremely low, very low, low, relatively low, medium, compared with
The first n dimension Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy sets of 9 high, high, very high, high fuzzy uncertainties.
Preferably, the second computing module includes：
Second computing unit, for according to intensity of sunshine, sunshine temperature rise, sunshine shade, sunshine drift angle to photovoltaic generation system
The influence of system, the 2nd n for asking for the period generated energy that formula calculates photovoltaic generating system by period generated energy ties up Generalized Trapezoid
Fuzzy set.
Preferably, the 3rd computing module includes：
3rd computing unit, the 2nd n for the period generated energy according to photovoltaic generating system ties up Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy set
The daily generation that formula calculates photovoltaic generating system is asked for by daily generation；
4th computing module includes：4th computing unit, for fuzzy general by daily generation according to maximum similarity
Rate asks for formula and calculates the daily generation fuzzy probability for determining photovoltaic generating system.
As can be seen from the above technical solutions, the embodiment of the present invention has advantages below：
A kind of photovoltaic generating system daily generation Fuzzy Probability Calculation method and device provided in an embodiment of the present invention, bag
Include：According to the daily generation data of the photovoltaic generating system of the user got, calculate and determine that the day of photovoltaic generating system generates electricity
Measure the n dimension Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy sets of fuzzy uncertainty；According to intensity of sunshine, sunshine temperature rise, sunshine shade, sunshine drift angle to light
The influence of photovoltaic generating system, calculates the n dimension Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy sets of the period generated energy of photovoltaic generating system；According to photovoltaic generation
The n dimension Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy sets of the period generated energy of system calculate the daily generation of photovoltaic generating system；According to photovoltaic generation system
The daily generation of system, which is calculated in the daily generation fuzzy probability for determining photovoltaic generating system, the embodiment of the present invention, passes through local monitor
Data center obtains the related data information of distributed photovoltaic power generation system period generated energy, passes through energy management system
EMS obtains the data of operation of power networks, is mainly when considering intensity of sunshine, sunshine-duration, sunshine shade, sunshine inclination angle etc. and draws
Enter the trapezoidal fuzzy set concept of multidimensional multivalue and its computational methods, it is assumed that intensity of sunshine, sunshine-duration, sunshine shade, sunshine drift angle
The parameters such as degree and user's battery energy storage charge event obey generalized n and tie up trapezoidal Fuzzy Distribution rule, in FUZZY PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
On the basis of calculate distributed photovoltaic power generation system daily generation, one day photovoltaic generating system generated energy can be calculated, solve
Distributed photovoltaic power generation system daily generation computational methods of the prior art are all without considering the not true of influence factors comprehensively
Qualitative and randomness, computational methods applicability, practicality and application are also difficult to the technical problem being met.
Brief description of the drawings
In order to illustrate more clearly about the embodiment of the present invention or technical scheme of the prior art, below will be to embodiment or existing
There is the accompanying drawing used required in technology description to be briefly described, it should be apparent that, drawings in the following description are only this
Some embodiments of invention, for those of ordinary skill in the art, without having to pay creative labor, may be used also
To obtain other accompanying drawings according to these accompanying drawings.
Fig. 1 is a kind of flow of photovoltaic generating system daily generation Fuzzy Probability Calculation method provided in an embodiment of the present invention
Schematic diagram；
Fig. 2 is a kind of structure of photovoltaic generating system daily generation Fuzzy Probability Calculation device provided in an embodiment of the present invention
Schematic diagram.
Embodiment
The embodiments of the invention provide a kind of photovoltaic generating system daily generation Fuzzy Probability Calculation method and device, it is used for
Solve all no influence factor of consideration comprehensively of distributed photovoltaic power generation system daily generation computational methods of the prior art not
Certainty and randomness, computational methods applicability, practicality and application are also difficult to the technical problem being met.
To enable goal of the invention, feature, the advantage of the present invention more obvious and understandable, below in conjunction with the present invention
Accompanying drawing in embodiment, the technical scheme in the embodiment of the present invention is clearly and completely described, it is clear that disclosed below
Embodiment be only a part of embodiment of the invention, and not all embodiment.Based on the embodiment in the present invention, this area
All other embodiment that those of ordinary skill is obtained under the premise of creative work is not made, belongs to protection of the present invention
Scope.
Referring to Fig. 1, a kind of photovoltaic generating system daily generation Fuzzy Probability Calculation method provided in an embodiment of the present invention,
Including：
101st, according to the daily generation data of the photovoltaic generating system of the user got, calculate and determine photovoltaic generating system
Daily generation fuzzy uncertainty the first n dimension Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy set；
According to the daily generation data of the photovoltaic generating system of the user got, determined by daily generation fuzzy set public
Formula calculates extremely low, very low, low, relatively low, medium, higher, high, very high, high 9 for the daily generation for determining photovoltaic generating system
The first n dimension Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy sets of individual fuzzy uncertainty, daily generation fuzzy set determines that formula is specially：
EHi=(EHiV1,EHiV2,...,EHiVn)=[(EHiV11,EHiV12,EHiV13,...,EHiV1q；kHiV1),
(EHiV21,EHiV22,EHiV23,...,EHiV2q；kHiV2),
…
(EHiVn1,EHiVn2,EHiVn3,...,EHiVnq；kHiVn)]；
Wherein, EHiTrapezoidal fuzzy set, E are tieed up for i-th of n of daily generationHiV1、EHiV2、…、EHiVnAnd kHiV1、kHiV2、…、
kHiVnRespectively i-th n of daily generation tie up trapezoidal Fuzzy-valued 1, value 2 ..., value n fuzzy set and degree of membership coefficient, EHiV1j、
EHiV2j、…、EHiVnj(j=1,2,3 ..., 9) it is respectively that i-th of daily generation fuzzy uncertainty value of daily generation is wide n-th
J-th of fuzzy number of the trapezoidal fuzzy set of justice.
102nd, the influence according to intensity of sunshine, sunshine temperature rise, sunshine shade, sunshine drift angle to photovoltaic generating system, is calculated
The 2nd n dimension Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy sets of the period generated energy of photovoltaic generating system；
Influence according to intensity of sunshine, sunshine temperature rise, sunshine shade, sunshine drift angle to photovoltaic generating system, passes through the period
Generated energy asks for the 2nd n dimension Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy sets that formula calculates the period generated energy of photovoltaic generating system, period generated energy
Asking for formula is specially：
Wherein,Respectively in historical data with intensity of sunshine period t (t=1,2 ..., NSH) value k
A (a=1,2 ..., n) individual trapezoidal fuzzy set b (b=1,2 ..., probability and fuzzy number that q) fuzzy number occurs,Respectively in historical data with sunshine temperature rise period t value k a (a=1,2 ..., it is n) individual trapezoidal fuzzy
Collect b (b=1,2 ..., q) fuzzy number occur probability and fuzzy number,With day respectively in historical data
According to shade period t value k a (a=1,2 ..., n) individual trapezoidal fuzzy set fuzzy number occur probability and fuzzy number,Respectively in historical data with sunshine drift angle period t value k a (a=1,2 ..., n) individual trapezoidal fuzzy set
B (b=1,2 ..., q) fuzzy number occur probability and fuzzy number,With sunshine respectively in historical data
Time period t value k a (a=1,2 ..., n) individual trapezoidal fuzzy set b (b=1,2 ..., the q) probability that fuzzy number occurs
And fuzzy number.
103rd, Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy set is tieed up according to the 2nd n of the period generated energy of photovoltaic generating system and calculates photovoltaic generation system
The daily generation of system；
Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy set is tieed up according to the 2nd n of the period generated energy of photovoltaic generating system public affairs are asked for by daily generation
Formula calculates the daily generation of photovoltaic generating system, and daily generation asks for formula and is specially：
Wherein, kPVEFor photovoltaic power generation plate photoelectric conversion factors,Represent NSHThe union of individual fuzzy set.
104th, calculate photovoltaic generating system daily generation and daily generation in historical data it is extremely low, very low, low, compared with
The similarity of 9 low, medium, higher, high, very high, high fuzzy quantities, and according to Similarity Measure maximum similarity；
Calculate photovoltaic generating system daily generation and daily generation in historical data it is extremely low, very low, low, relatively low, in
Deng the similarity of, higher, high, very high, high 9 fuzzy quantitiesAnd according to Similarity Measure maximum phase
Like degree
105th, the daily generation fuzzy probability for determining photovoltaic generating system is calculated according to the daily generation of photovoltaic generating system.
The day that formula calculates determination photovoltaic generating system is asked for by daily generation fuzzy probability according to maximum similarity
Generated energy fuzzy probability, daily generation fuzzy probability asks for formula and is specially：
Wherein,For similarity,For maximum similarity.
It is to a kind of photovoltaic generating system daily generation Fuzzy Probability Calculation method provided in an embodiment of the present invention above
It is described in detail, a kind of photovoltaic generating system daily generation Fuzzy Probability Calculation device provided in an embodiment of the present invention will be entered below
The detailed description of row.
Referring to Fig. 2, a kind of photovoltaic generating system daily generation Fuzzy Probability Calculation device provided in an embodiment of the present invention
Including：
First computing module 201, for the daily generation data of the photovoltaic generating system according to the user got, is calculated
Determine the first n dimension Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy sets of the daily generation fuzzy uncertainty of photovoltaic generating system；First computing module 201
Including：
First computing unit 2011, for the daily generation data of the photovoltaic generating system according to the user got, leads to
Cross daily generation fuzzy set determine formula calculate determine photovoltaic generating system daily generation it is extremely low, very low, low, relatively low, in
The first n Deng, higher, high, very high, high 9 fuzzy uncertainties ties up Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy set.
Second computing module 202, for according to intensity of sunshine, sunshine temperature rise, sunshine shade, sunshine drift angle to photovoltaic generation
The influence of system, calculates the 2nd n dimension Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy sets of the period generated energy of photovoltaic generating system；Second computing module
202 include：
Second computing unit 2021, for being sent out according to intensity of sunshine, sunshine temperature rise, sunshine shade, sunshine drift angle photovoltaic
The influence of electric system, the 2nd n for asking for the period generated energy that formula calculates photovoltaic generating system by period generated energy ties up broad sense
Trapezoidal fuzzy set.
3rd computing module 203, the 2nd n dimension Generalized Trapezoids for the period generated energy according to photovoltaic generating system are obscured
Collection calculates the daily generation of photovoltaic generating system；3rd computing module 202 includes：
3rd computing unit 2031, the 2nd n for the period generated energy according to photovoltaic generating system ties up Generalized Trapezoid mould
Paste collection asks for the daily generation that formula calculates photovoltaic generating system by daily generation；
4th computing module 204, photovoltaic generating system is determined for being calculated according to the daily generation of photovoltaic generating system
Daily generation fuzzy probability.4th computing module 204 includes：4th computing unit 2041, for logical according to maximum similarity
Cross daily generation fuzzy probability and ask for the daily generation fuzzy probability that formula calculates determination photovoltaic generating system.
It is apparent to those skilled in the art that, for convenience and simplicity of description, the system of foregoing description,
The specific work process of device and unit, may be referred to the corresponding process in preceding method embodiment, will not be repeated here.
In several embodiments provided herein, it should be understood that disclosed system, apparatus and method can be with
Realize by another way.For example, device embodiment described above is only schematical, for example, the unit
Divide, only a kind of division of logic function there can be other dividing mode when actually realizing, such as multiple units or component
Another system can be combined or be desirably integrated into, or some features can be ignored, or do not perform.It is another, it is shown or
The coupling each other discussed or direct-coupling or communication connection can be the indirect couplings of device or unit by some interfaces
Close or communicate to connect, can be electrical, machinery or other forms.
The unit illustrated as separating component can be or may not be it is physically separate, it is aobvious as unit
The part shown can be or may not be physical location, you can with positioned at a place, or can also be distributed to multiple
On NE.Some or all of unit therein can be selected to realize the mesh of this embodiment scheme according to the actual needs
's.
In addition, each functional unit in each embodiment of the invention can be integrated in a processing unit, can also
That unit is individually physically present, can also two or more units it is integrated in a unit.Above-mentioned integrated list
Member can both be realized in the form of hardware, it would however also be possible to employ the form of SFU software functional unit is realized.
If the integrated unit is realized using in the form of SFU software functional unit and as independent production marketing or used
When, it can be stored in a computer read/write memory medium.Understood based on such, technical scheme is substantially
The part contributed in other words to prior art or all or part of the technical scheme can be in the form of software products
Embody, the computer software product is stored in a storage medium, including some instructions are to cause a computer
Equipment (can be personal computer, server, or network equipment etc.) performs the complete of each embodiment methods described of the invention
Portion or part steps.And foregoing storage medium includes：USB flash disk, mobile hard disk, read-only storage (ROM, Read-Only
Memory), random access memory (RAM, Random Access Memory), magnetic disc or CD etc. are various can store journey
The medium of sequence code.
Described above, the above embodiments are merely illustrative of the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than its limitations；Although with reference to before
Embodiment is stated the present invention is described in detail, it will be understood by those within the art that：It still can be to preceding
State the technical scheme described in each embodiment to modify, or equivalent substitution is carried out to which part technical characteristic；And these
Modification is replaced, and the essence of appropriate technical solution is departed from the spirit and scope of various embodiments of the present invention technical scheme.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of photovoltaic generating system daily generation Fuzzy Probability Calculation method, it is characterised in that including：
According to the daily generation data of the photovoltaic generating system of the user got, the day for determining the photovoltaic generating system is calculated
The first n dimension Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy sets of generated energy fuzzy uncertainty；
Influence according to intensity of sunshine, sunshine temperature rise, sunshine shade, sunshine drift angle to the photovoltaic generating system, calculates described
The 2nd n dimension Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy sets of the period generated energy of photovoltaic generating system；
Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy set is tieed up according to the 2nd n of the period generated energy of the photovoltaic generating system and calculates the photovoltaic generation system
The daily generation of system；
The daily generation fuzzy probability for determining the photovoltaic generating system is calculated according to the daily generation of the photovoltaic generating system.
2. photovoltaic generating system daily generation Fuzzy Probability Calculation method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that described
According to the daily generation data of the photovoltaic generating system of the user got, calculate and determine that the day of the photovoltaic generating system generates electricity
The first n dimension Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy sets of amount fuzzy uncertainty include：
According to the daily generation data of the photovoltaic generating system of the user got, formula meter is determined by daily generation fuzzy set
Calculate extremely low, very low, low, relatively low, medium, higher, high, very high, high 9 for the daily generation for determining the photovoltaic generating system
The first n dimension Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy sets of individual fuzzy uncertainty, the daily generation fuzzy set determines that formula is specially：
EHi=(EHiV1,EHiV2,...,EHiVn)=[(EHiV11,EHiV12,EHiV13,...,EHiV1q；kHiV1),
(EHiV21,EHiV22,EHiV23,...,EHiV2q；kHiV2),
…
(EHiVn1,EHiVn2,EHiVn3,...,EHiVnq；kHiVn)]；
Wherein, EHiTrapezoidal fuzzy set, E are tieed up for i-th of n of daily generationHiV1、EHiV2、…、EHiVnAnd kHiV1、kHiV2、…、kHiVnPoint
Not Wei i-th n of daily generation tie up trapezoidal Fuzzy-valued 1, value 2 ..., value n fuzzy set and degree of membership coefficient, EHiV1j、
EHiV2j、…、EHiVnj(j=1,2,3 ..., 9) it is respectively that i-th of daily generation fuzzy uncertainty value of daily generation is wide n-th
J-th of fuzzy number of the trapezoidal fuzzy set of justice.
3. photovoltaic generating system daily generation Fuzzy Probability Calculation method according to claim 2, it is characterised in that described
Influence according to intensity of sunshine, sunshine temperature rise, sunshine shade, sunshine drift angle to the photovoltaic generating system, calculates the photovoltaic
The 2nd n dimension Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy sets of the period generated energy of electricity generation system include：
Influence according to intensity of sunshine, sunshine temperature rise, sunshine shade, sunshine drift angle to the photovoltaic generating system, passes through the period
Generated energy asks for the 2nd n dimension Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy sets that formula calculates the period generated energy of the photovoltaic generating system, when described
Section generated energy asks for formula and is specially：
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Wherein,Respectively in historical data with intensity of sunshine period t (t=1,2 ..., NSH) value k a (a
=1,2 ..., n) individual trapezoidal fuzzy set b (b=1,2 ..., probability and fuzzy number that q) fuzzy number occurs,Respectively in historical data with sunshine temperature rise period t value k a (a=1,2 ..., it is n) individual trapezoidal fuzzy
Collect b (b=1,2 ..., q) fuzzy number occur probability and fuzzy number,With sunshine respectively in historical data
Shade period t value k a (a=1,2 ..., n) individual trapezoidal fuzzy set fuzzy number occur probability and fuzzy number,Respectively in historical data with sunshine drift angle period t value k a (a=1,2 ..., n) individual trapezoidal fuzzy set
B (b=1,2 ..., q) fuzzy number occur probability and fuzzy number,When respectively in historical data with sunshine
Between period t value k a (a=1,2 ..., n) individual trapezoidal fuzzy set b (b=1,2 ..., probability that q) fuzzy number occurs and
Fuzzy number.
4. photovoltaic generating system daily generation Fuzzy Probability Calculation method according to claim 3, it is characterised in that described
Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy set is tieed up according to the 2nd n of the period generated energy of the photovoltaic generating system and calculates the photovoltaic generating system
Daily generation includes：
Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy set is tieed up according to the 2nd n of the period generated energy of the photovoltaic generating system public affairs are asked for by daily generation
Formula calculates the daily generation of the photovoltaic generating system, and the daily generation asks for formula and is specially：
Wherein, kPVEFor photovoltaic power generation plate photoelectric conversion factors,Represent NSHThe union of individual fuzzy set.
5. photovoltaic generating system daily generation Fuzzy Probability Calculation method according to claim 4, it is characterised in that also wrap
Include：
Calculate daily generation in the daily generation and historical data of the photovoltaic generating system it is extremely low, very low, low, relatively low, in
Deng the similarity of, higher, high, very high, high 9 fuzzy quantities, and according to the Similarity Measure maximum similarity.
6. photovoltaic generating system daily generation Fuzzy Probability Calculation method according to claim 5, it is characterised in that described
Calculated according to the daily generation of the photovoltaic generating system and determine that the daily generation fuzzy probability of the photovoltaic generating system includes：
Formula is asked for by daily generation fuzzy probability according to the maximum similarity and calculates the determination photovoltaic generating system
Daily generation fuzzy probability, the daily generation fuzzy probability asks for formula and is specially：
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7. a kind of photovoltaic generating system daily generation Fuzzy Probability Calculation device, it is characterised in that including：
First computing module, for the daily generation data of the photovoltaic generating system according to the user got, calculates and determines institute
State the first n dimension Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy sets of the daily generation fuzzy uncertainty of photovoltaic generating system；
Second computing module, for according to intensity of sunshine, sunshine temperature rise, sunshine shade, sunshine drift angle to the photovoltaic generation system
The influence of system, calculates the 2nd n dimension Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy sets of the period generated energy of the photovoltaic generating system；
3rd computing module, the 2nd n for the period generated energy according to the photovoltaic generating system ties up Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy set
Calculate the daily generation of the photovoltaic generating system；
4th computing module, the photovoltaic generating system is determined for being calculated according to the daily generation of the photovoltaic generating system
Daily generation fuzzy probability.
8. photovoltaic generating system daily generation Fuzzy Probability Calculation method according to claim 7, it is characterised in that described
First computing module includes：
First computing unit, for the daily generation data of the photovoltaic generating system according to the user got, is generated electricity by day
Amount fuzzy set determine formula calculate the daily generation that determines the photovoltaic generating system it is extremely low, very low, low, relatively low, medium, compared with
The first n dimension Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy sets of 9 high, high, very high, high fuzzy uncertainties.
9. photovoltaic generating system daily generation Fuzzy Probability Calculation method according to claim 8, it is characterised in that described
Second computing module includes：
Second computing unit, for according to intensity of sunshine, sunshine temperature rise, sunshine shade, sunshine drift angle to the photovoltaic generation system
The influence of system, the 2nd n for asking for the period generated energy that formula calculates the photovoltaic generating system by period generated energy ties up broad sense
Trapezoidal fuzzy set.
10. photovoltaic generating system daily generation Fuzzy Probability Calculation method according to claim 9, it is characterised in that institute
Stating the 3rd computing module includes：
3rd computing unit, the 2nd n for the period generated energy according to the photovoltaic generating system ties up Generalized Trapezoid fuzzy set
The daily generation that formula calculates the photovoltaic generating system is asked for by daily generation；
4th computing module includes：4th computing unit, for fuzzy general by daily generation according to the maximum similarity
Rate asks for formula and calculates the daily generation fuzzy probability for determining the photovoltaic generating system.
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| CN106300423A (en) * | 2016-09-07 | 2017-01-04 | 广东工业大学 | Based on the trapezoidal fuzzy method and device determining photovoltaic generation daily generation of three-dimensional |
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