CN107194620A - An a kind of type point value Zadeh Fuzzy Calculation method and devices for photovoltaic generation daily generation - Google Patents
An a kind of type point value Zadeh Fuzzy Calculation method and devices for photovoltaic generation daily generation Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The embodiment of the invention discloses an a kind of type point value Zadeh Fuzzy Calculation method and devices of photovoltaic generation daily generation, for solving distributed photovoltaic power generation system daily generation computational methods of the prior art without the uncertainty and randomness for considering influence factor comprehensively, computational methods applicability, practicality and application are difficult to the technical problem being met.Present invention method includes：Consider intensity of sunshine, sunshine-duration, sunshine shade, sunshine inclination angle and introduce the trapezoidal fuzzy set concept of dimension and its computational methods, Zadeh Fuzzy Distribution rules are obeyed based on the parameters such as intensity of sunshine, sunshine-duration, sunshine shade, sunshine inclination angle and user's battery energy storage charge event, distributed photovoltaic power generation system daily generation is calculated on the basis of FUZZY PROBABILITY ANALYSIS, is that distributed new generates electricity and intelligent grid management and running provide the necessary technical support.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the one of Power System and its Automation technical field, more particularly to a kind of photovoltaic generation daily generation
Type point value Zadeh Fuzzy Calculation method and devices.
Background technology
It is smart city development trend to develop distributed solar electricity generation system, and photovoltaic generation and photo-thermal power generation are solar energy
Generate electricity two kinds of different forms.In recent years, photovoltaic-light-heat integration distributed generation system turns into the direction of Developing mainstream and ground
Study carefully the theme of focus.
The principle of photovoltaic generation is, will too using the semiconductors such as vacuum device, alkali metal, magnetic fluid or the metal material temperature difference
Positive heat energy is directly translated into electric energy and realizes generating.The principle of photo-thermal power generation is, using the form of light and heat collection by working medium such as water
High-temperature high-pressure steam is heated to, by heat engines such as high-temperature high-pressure steam driving steam turbines, then by heat engine driving generating set hair
Electricity, realizes generating, its electricity generating principle is similar with conventional thermodynamic generating using the conversion of sun optical and thermal-machine-electricity various energy resources,
But its energy is not the fuel such as coal, oil or gas but sunshine.
At present, photovoltaic generation turns into highly developed technology, and its cost of electricity-generating has already decreased to 70,000,000 yuan/ten thousand kilowatts
Level.Photo-thermal power generation mainly has four kinds of tower, slot type, dish-style and Fresnel.The principle of slot type sunlight heat power generation system
It is to assemble solar heat using multiple series-parallel groove profile parabolic concentrator heat collectors, heating working medium enters to high temperature and high pressure steam
And driving steam turbine generating set generates electricity.It is molecular by many mirrors that the electricity generating principle of dish-style sunlight heat power generation system, which is,
Parabolic mirror, solar energy is gathered in paraboloidal focus, makes in parabola receiver working medium heating working medium to high temperature
High steam, drives engine power generation.The electricity generating principle of Fresnel solar-thermal generating system is, using the optically focused of fresnel structure
Mirror assembles solar heat, and heating working medium to high temperature and high pressure steam, driving steam turbine generating set generates electricity, and its generating efficiency is low, but
Simple in construction, construction and maintenance cost are relatively low.The principle of tower-type solar thermal power generating system is inhaled using on middle absorbent tower top
Device aggregation solar heat is received, heating working medium to high temperature and high pressure steam, driving steam turbine generating set is generated electricity, and number is installed around tower
The heliostat of amount, the cavity that sunshine is gathered to the receiver of tower top by heliostat produces high temperature, then passes through absorber
Working medium is heated and produces high-temperature steam, and pushing turbine is generated electricity.This several photo-thermal power generation mode is converted to by light
Heat produces steam to drive steam turbine to be generated electricity again.
Sunshine can have great otherness in different zones radiation intensity, sunshine-duration, in same place because of cloud layer
Block to form shade and cause also have great otherness, randomness in different time and spatially intensity of sunshine and obscure
Property, this uncertain characteristic determines that photovoltaic and solar-thermal generating system are exerted oneself also and have great otherness, randomness and fuzzy
Property.Therefore, the size of photovoltaic and solar-thermal generating system power output is determined, it is necessary to strong to solar radiation in the region
Degree, sunshine-duration carry out probability analysis or fuzzy analysis, Probabilistic Fuzzy analysis, will also be in different time and spatially sunshine is strong
Degree carries out probability analysis or fuzzy analysis, Probabilistic Fuzzy analysis.
Using the electricity generating principle that continues of battery energy storage, photovoltaic generating system continues hair when can be in cloudy day on daytime or night
Electricity or continuous generating.But it continues, generating or continuous generating capacity depend on battery energy storage capacity, efficiency and control mode etc.
Factor, these factors influence battery energy storage continues electricity generation system power output level.Using fuse salt energy storage, light can be also realized
Heat continues when generating electricity in cloudy day on daytime or night to generate electricity or continuously generates electricity.As photovoltaic generation, solar-thermal generating system connects
Supervention electricity or continuous generating capacity depend on the factors such as fuse salt stored energy capacitance, energy conversion efficiency and Flexible Control mode, its
Power output level is also because a variety of uncertain factors influence and have very big randomness and ambiguity.
Countries in the world regenerative resource accesses in power network and rapid growth trend is presented in recent years.Photovoltaic generation access growth is most
Fast, annual growth is 60%；Next to that wind-power electricity generation and bio-fuel generate electricity, annual growth is respectively 27% and 18%.Work
Industry and informationization portion predict that the year two thousand thirty whole nation electric automobile recoverable amount is up to 60,000,000, and peak value charge power will reach
0.42TW, accounts for the 18% of estimated total installation of generating capacity 2.32TW.Therefore, distributed power generation, energy storage and charging system for electric automobile exist
Access is a kind of inevitable trend to urban power distribution network on a large scale.With the Cross support and promotion of national policy and industry development,
In space, such as the large user such as the small user such as city dweller and commercial establishment, community, industrial area group, distributed photovoltaic
Electricity generation system can form the trend of fast development, and photovoltaic and photo-thermal power generation integral system also would indicate that the state of powerful development
Gesture.Distributed energy storage system is a kind of to access the distributed system that voltage class and access point are fixed, including compressed hydrogen energy storage, electricity
Pond energy storage, super capacitor energy-storage etc., energy storage power can be soft controllable；Electric automobile distributed charging system is a kind of access voltage etc.
Level and the variable distributed system of access point, charge power can be soft controllable, and randomness is very big.Distributed power generation fluctuation, interval
Property, randomness and charging electric vehicle it is uncertain so that single distributed power generation, electricity consumption and the more randomness of charging, city
The large user such as the small user such as city resident and commercial establishment, community, industrial area group distributed power generation, energy storage and electric automobile fill
The interactive relationship of electric system can further increase the randomness and ambiguity of distributed power output.
For stochastic uncertainty, traditionally analyzed and handled random uncertain using Probability Statistics Theory
The information of property, for example, be characterized the probability density function and probability-distribution function of value to construct uncertainty to average and variance
The probabilistic model of event or parameter, describes the probability of happening characteristic and power, voltage and current of uncertain event etc. not true
The wave characteristic of qualitative parameter.
For fuzzy uncertainty, traditionally analyzed and handled fuzzy not true using Fuzzy Analysis
Qualitatively information.Using the not smart of Zadeh fuzzy sets or TYPE1 fuzzy set imitations and description fuzzy uncertainty event or parameter
Breath is firmly believed, mainly uses the method for individual layer membership function to simulate fuzzy uncertainty event or parameter, to be subordinate to
Angle value is described.In real application systems, uncertain event becomes to become increasingly complex, uncertain parameter substantial amounts and
And relation is complicated, event or parameter and each other fog-level of information in itself are substantially increased, it is fuzzy based on Zadeh
The individual layer membership function method of collection and TYPE1 fuzzy sets seems clearly disadvantageous, with being difficult in direct analog information
Analyze and handle these fuzzy uncertainty events or parameter.On the basis of TYPE1 fuzzy sets, Zadeh is proposed based on two
The TYPE2 fuzzy sets of layer membership function, further enhancing to fuzzy uncertainty event or parameter disposal ability.
In real application systems, can also exist simultaneously at random with obscuring two kinds of probabilistic events or parameter, and
Its reciprocation, mutually it is superimposed.Traditional probability analysis method and Fuzzy Analysis is limited by itself mechanism, in processing
This system at random with fuzzy uncertainty event or parameter when become clearly disadvantageous, analytical effect can not be close to actual
Scene.Therefore, fuzzy theory merges with probability theory and forms a kind of developing direction and trend in recent years, gives solution never
The tempting thinking and method of certain problem.A kind of introduced fuzzy theory in traditional probability theory, such as random set,
Fuzzy random sets, fuzzy random variable；Another is that probability theory is incorporated into fuzzy theory, such as unstable fuzzy set,
Probability set and Probabilistic Fuzzy collection.Prominent, on the basis of TYPE2 fuzzy sets, random theory is incorporated into biography by Probabilistic Fuzzy collection
In the fuzzy theory of system, the stochastic behaviour of Uncertain Stochastic and fuzzy event or parameter is described with fuzzy membership, is formed
N ties up the fuzzy set form of membership function.
The large user such as the small user such as city dweller and commercial establishment, community, industrial area group's distributed photovoltaic power generation system
System is exactly such a while having relation complicated and interactive random and fuzzy uncertainty event or the system of parameter.
Possess the small user of the new energy such as the city dweller of distributed photovoltaic power generation system and commercial establishment, community, industrial area etc. new
The energy large user group, under the influence of various Uncertain Stochastics and fuzzy event or parameter, its daily generation become more with
Machine characteristic and fuzzy behaviour.Conventional distributed photovoltaic power generation system daily generation generally uses deterministic computational methods, some
Also the indeterminacy of calculation method of probability analysis is used.The method of deterministic parameters calculation is typically assuming that solar radiation in region
Intensity, sunshine-duration and user location are in different time and spatially intensity of sunshine, sunshine-duration, sunshine shade, sunshine
Inclination angle calculates distributed photovoltaic power generation system daily generation in the case of all determining, does not also account for generating electricity or connecting as continuing
The fuse salt energy storage installed capacity of the battery energy storage capacity or solar-thermal generating system of the photovoltaic generating system of supervention electricity, energy storage shape
The influence of the factors such as state, energy conversion efficiency, power distribution network pressure regulation requirement and Flexible Control mode, result of calculation is uniqueness and true
Qualitatively, the actual conditions of reaction profile formula photovoltaic generating system daily generation are tended not to.And the computational methods of probability analysis
Typically distributed photovoltaic power generation system is calculated in the case where only assuming the single factors such as intensity of sunshine for uncertain factor
Daily generation, result of calculation is the probable value with confidence level.In fact, distributed photovoltaic power generation system daily generation is by area
Solar radiation intensity, sunshine-duration and its probability or fuzziness are determined in domain, also by user location in different time and sky
Between upper intensity of sunshine, sunshine-duration, sunshine shade, sunshine inclination angle and its probability or fuzziness determine, also depending on work
The fuse salt energy storage dress of battery energy storage capacity or solar-thermal generating system for the photovoltaic generating system for generating electricity or continuously generating electricity that continues
The factors such as machine capacity, energy storage state, energy conversion efficiency, power distribution network pressure regulation requirement and Flexible Control mode.Moreover, these influence
Factor is usually constructed with stochastic uncertainty or fuzzy uncertainty, or he is that have random and fuzzy uncertainty, often with
Random and fuzzy uncertainty event or parameter and exist.It can be seen that, it is existing that distributed photovoltaic power generation system daily generation is calculated
Technology is all without the uncertainty and randomness for considering influence factor comprehensively, computational methods applicability, practicality and application
It is difficult to be met.
The content of the invention
The embodiments of the invention provide an a kind of type point value Zadeh Fuzzy Calculations method and dress for photovoltaic generation daily generation
Put, solve distributed photovoltaic power generation system daily generation computational methods of the prior art and do not consider influence factor comprehensively
Uncertainty and randomness, computational methods applicability, practicality and application are difficult to the technical problem being met.
A type point value Zadeh Fuzzy Calculations method and dress for a kind of photovoltaic generation daily generation provided in an embodiment of the present invention
Put, including：
According to the photovoltaic generating system daily generation data of the user got, calculate and determine that photovoltaic generating system day generates electricity
One one type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertainty of amount；
Acquisition user location N number of period intensity of sunshine data on daytime in one day, and according to the output of photovoltaic generating system
Relation between power and intensity of sunshine, calculates and determines the power output of photovoltaic generating system and intensity of sunshine in N number of period
2nd 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse；
Acquisition user location N number of sunshine-duration period data on daytime in one day, and according to the output of photovoltaic generating system
Relation between power and sunshine-duration, calculates and determines the power output of photovoltaic generating system and sunshine-duration in N number of period
3rd 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse；
Acquisition user location N number of period sunshine shadow data on daytime in one day, and according to the output of photovoltaic generating system
Relation between power and sunshine shade, calculates and determines the power output of photovoltaic generating system and sunshine shade in N number of period
4th 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse；
Acquisition user location N number of period sunshine drift angle data on daytime in one day, and according to the output of photovoltaic generating system
Relation between power and sunshine drift angle, calculates and determines the power output of photovoltaic generating system and sunshine drift angle in N number of period
May Day type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse；
The acquisition user location environment temperature rise data of N number of period on daytime caused by sunshine in one day, and sent out according to photovoltaic
Relation between the power output of electric system and environment temperature rise, calculates the power output for determining photovoltaic generating system in N number of period
With the 6th 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of environment temperature rise；
By Fuzzy Analysis according to the one one type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, the 2nd 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets,
3rd 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, the 4th 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, May Day type point value Zadeh fuzzy set, the 6th
One type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets calculate the daily generation of photovoltaic generating system.
Alternatively, according to the photovoltaic generating system daily generation data of the user got, calculate and determine photovoltaic generation system
One one type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertainty of system daily generation include：
According to the photovoltaic generating system daily generation data of the user got from local monitor center, pass through daily generation
Fuzzy set determines that formula calculates the one one type point value Zadeh moulds of the fuzzy uncertainty for determining photovoltaic generating system daily generation
Paste collection, daily generation fuzzy set determines that formula is specially：
Wherein, EHiFor i-th of type point value Zadeh fuzzy set of daily generation one, EHiV1、EHiV2、...、EHiVnAnd μHiV1、
μHiV2、...、μHiVnRespectively from i-th daily generation fuzzy uncertainty value it is extremely low, very low, low, relatively low, medium, higher,
1 to n type point value Zadeh fuzzy number being determined in high, very high, high interval range and its it is subordinate to angle value.
Alternatively, user location N number of period intensity of sunshine data on daytime in one day are obtained, and according to photovoltaic generating system
Power output and intensity of sunshine between relation, calculate the power output and sunshine for determining photovoltaic generating system in N number of period
2nd 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of intensity include：
Acquisition user location N on daytime in one daySHThe individual common n Value Data of period intensity of sunshine, and according to photovoltaic generation system
Relation between the power output and intensity of sunshine of system, determines that formula is calculated by intensity of sunshine fuzzy set and determines NSHIn the individual period
The power output of photovoltaic generating system and the 2nd 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of intensity of sunshine,
Intensity of sunshine fuzzy set determines that formula is specially：
Wherein,For period t, t=1,2 ..., NSH, the type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of intensity of sunshine one, AndRespectively from the interval of period t intensity of sunshine fuzzy uncertainty value
In the range of 1 to n type point value Zadeh fuzzy number determining and its be subordinate to angle value.
Alternatively, user location N number of sunshine-duration period data on daytime in one day are obtained, and according to photovoltaic generating system
Power output and the relation between the sunshine-duration, calculate the power output and sunshine for determining photovoltaic generating system in N number of period
3rd 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of time include：
Acquisition user location N on daytime in one daySHIndividual sunshine-duration period common n Value Data, and according to photovoltaic generation system
The power output of system and the relation between the sunshine-duration, determine that formula is calculated by sunshine-duration fuzzy set and determine NSHIn the individual period
The power output of photovoltaic generating system and the 3rd 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of sunshine-duration,
Sunshine-duration fuzzy set determines that formula is specially：
Wherein,For the period t type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of sunshine-duration one,And1 respectively determined out of period t sunshine-duration fuzzy uncertainty value interval range
To n type point value Zadeh fuzzy numbers and its it is subordinate to angle value.
Alternatively, user location N number of period sunshine shadow data on daytime in one day is obtained, and according to photovoltaic generating system
Power output and sunshine shade between relation, calculate the power output and sunshine for determining photovoltaic generating system in N number of period
4th 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of shade include：
Acquisition user location N on daytime in one daySHThe individual common n Value Data of period sunshine shade, and according to photovoltaic generation system
Relation between the power output and sunshine shade of system, determines that formula is calculated by sunshine shadow blur collection and determines NSHIn the individual period
The power output of photovoltaic generating system and the 4th 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of sunshine shade,
Sunshine shadow blur collection determines that formula is specially：
Wherein,For the period t type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of sunshine shade one,And1 respectively determined out of the period t uncertain value of sunshine shadow blur interval range
To n type point value Zadeh fuzzy numbers and its it is subordinate to angle value.
Alternatively, user location N number of period sunshine drift angle data on daytime in one day are obtained, and according to photovoltaic generating system
Power output and sunshine drift angle between relation, calculate the power output and sunshine for determining photovoltaic generating system in N number of period
May Day type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of drift angle include：
Acquisition user location N on daytime in one daySHThe individual common n Value Data in period sunshine drift angle, and according to photovoltaic generation system
Relation between the power output of system and sunshine drift angle, determines that formula is calculated by sunshine drift angle fuzzy set and determines NSHIn the individual period
The power output of photovoltaic generating system and May Day type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of sunshine drift angle,
Sunshine drift angle fuzzy set determines that formula is specially：
Wherein,For the period t type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of sunshine drift angle one,And1 respectively determined out of period t sunshine drift angle fuzzy uncertainty value interval range
To n type point value Zadeh fuzzy numbers and its it is subordinate to angle value.
Alternatively, user location environment temperature rise data of the N number of period on daytime caused by sunshine in one day are obtained, and according to
Relation between the power output of photovoltaic generating system and environment temperature rise, photovoltaic generating system is defeated in calculating determination N number of period
Going out power and the 6th 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of environment temperature rise includes：
Acquisition user location N on daytime in one daySHThe common n Value Data of environment temperature rise of the individual period caused by sunshine, and root
According to the relation between the power output of photovoltaic generating system and environment temperature rise, formula meter is determined by sunshine environment temperature rise fuzzy set
Calculate and determine NSHThe power output of photovoltaic generating system and the 6th 1 type of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of environment temperature rise in the individual period
Point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, sunshine environment temperature rise fuzzy set determines that formula is specially：
Wherein,For the period t type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of sunshine environment temperature rise one,
AndRespectively out of, period t sunshine environment temperature rise fuzzy uncertainty value interval range
1 to n type point value Zadeh fuzzy number determining and its it is subordinate to angle value.
Alternatively, by Fuzzy Analysis according to the one one type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, the 2nd 1 type point value Zadeh
Fuzzy set, the 3rd 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, the 4th 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, May Day type point value Zadeh are obscured
The daily generation that collection, the 6th 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets calculate photovoltaic generating system includes：
By Fuzzy Analysis according to the one one type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, the 2nd 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets,
3rd 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, the 4th 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, May Day type point value Zadeh fuzzy set, the 6th
One type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets ask for the daily generation that formula calculates photovoltaic generating system by daily generation, and daily generation is asked
The formula is taken to be specially：
Wherein, kPVEFor photovoltaic power generation plate photoelectric conversion factors,For in historical data with intensity of sunshine in period b (b
=1,2 ..., probability that q) individual fuzzy number occurs,To be counted in historical data with sunshine temperature rise b-th of period t is fuzzy
Existing probability,For the probability occurred in historical data with sunshine shade in b-th fuzzy number of period t,For historical data
In the probability that occurs with sunshine drift angle in b-th fuzzy number of period t,For in historical data with the sunshine-duration in period t b
The probability that individual fuzzy number occurs.Represent NSHThe union of individual fuzzy set,Represent the union of fuzzy set.
A kind of one type point value Zadeh Fuzzy Calculation devices of photovoltaic generation daily generation provided in an embodiment of the present invention, its
It is characterised by, including：
First computing module, for the photovoltaic generating system daily generation data according to the user got, calculates and determines
One one type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertainty of photovoltaic generating system daily generation；
Second computing module, for obtaining N number of period intensity of sunshine data on daytime in user location one day, and according to light
Relation between the power output and intensity of sunshine of photovoltaic generating system, calculates the output for determining photovoltaic generating system in N number of period
2nd 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of power and intensity of sunshine；
3rd computing module, for obtaining N number of sunshine-duration period data on daytime in user location one day, and according to light
The power output of photovoltaic generating system and the relation between the sunshine-duration, calculate the output for determining photovoltaic generating system in N number of period
3rd 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of power and sunshine-duration；
4th computing module, for obtaining N number of period sunshine shadow data on daytime in user location one day, and according to light
Relation between the power output and sunshine shade of photovoltaic generating system, calculates the output for determining photovoltaic generating system in N number of period
Power and the 4th 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of sunshine shade；
5th computing module, for obtaining N number of period sunshine drift angle data on daytime in user location one day, and according to light
Relation between the power output of photovoltaic generating system and sunshine drift angle, calculates the output for determining photovoltaic generating system in N number of period
Power and May Day type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of sunshine drift angle；
6th computing module, for obtaining environment temperature rise of the N number of period on daytime caused by sunshine in user location one day
Relation between data, and power output according to photovoltaic generating system and environment temperature rise, calculates and determines that photovoltaic is sent out in N number of period
The power output of electric system and the 6th 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of environment temperature rise；
7th computing module, for by Fuzzy Analysis according to the one one type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, the 2nd 1 type
Point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, the 3rd 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, the 4th 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, May Day type point value
Zadeh fuzzy sets, the 6th 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets calculate the daily generation of photovoltaic generating system.
Alternatively, the first computing module is specifically included：
Computing unit, for the photovoltaic generating system daily generation number according to the user got from local monitor center
According to, by daily generation fuzzy set determine formula calculate determine photovoltaic generating system daily generation fuzzy uncertainty first
One type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, daily generation fuzzy set determines that formula is specially：
Wherein, EHiFor i-th of type point value Zadeh fuzzy set of daily generation one, EHiV1、EHiV2、...、EHiVnAnd μHiV1、
μHiV2、...、μHiVnRespectively from i-th daily generation fuzzy uncertainty value it is extremely low, very low, low, relatively low, medium, higher,
1 to n type point value Zadeh fuzzy number being determined in high, very high, high interval range and its it is subordinate to angle value.
As can be seen from the above technical solutions, the embodiment of the present invention has advantages below：
The embodiments of the invention provide an a kind of type point value Zadeh Fuzzy Calculations method and dress for photovoltaic generation daily generation
Put, including：According to the photovoltaic generating system daily generation data of the user got, calculate and determine that photovoltaic generating system day generates electricity
One type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertainty of amount；Acquisition user location N number of period intensity of sunshine on daytime in one day
Data, and according to the relation between the power output and intensity of sunshine of photovoltaic generating system, calculate and determine that photovoltaic is sent out in N number of period
The power output of electric system and a type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of intensity of sunshine；Obtain user institute
N number of sunshine-duration period data on daytime in ground one day, and power output according to photovoltaic generating system and between the sunshine-duration
Relation, calculate and determine the power output of photovoltaic generating system and the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of sunshine-duration in N number of period
One type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets；Acquisition user location N number of period sunshine shadow data on daytime in one day, and sent out according to photovoltaic
Relation between the power output and sunshine shade of electric system, calculates the power output for determining photovoltaic generating system in N number of period
With a type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of sunshine shade；Obtain user location in one day daytime it is N number of
Relation between period sunshine drift angle data, and power output according to photovoltaic generating system and sunshine drift angle, calculate determine it is N number of
The power output of photovoltaic generating system and a type point value Zadeh of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of sunshine drift angle are obscured in period
Collection；The acquisition user location environment temperature rise data of N number of period on daytime caused by sunshine in one day, and according to photovoltaic generating system
Power output and environment temperature rise between relation, calculate the power output and environment for determining photovoltaic generating system in N number of period
One type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of temperature rise；By Fuzzy Analysis according to photovoltaic generating system
Type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of power output calculate the daily generation of photovoltaic generating system, pass through in the embodiment of the present invention
The random and fuzzy uncertainty of influence distributed photovoltaic power generation system daily generation is considered simultaneously, it is main to consider the sun in region
Intensity of sunshine, sunshine-duration, sunshine are cloudy in different time and spatially for light radiation intensity, sunshine-duration and user location
Shadow, sunshine inclination angle etc. be random and fuzzy uncertain sexual factor, is considering that intensity of sunshine, sunshine-duration, sunshine shade, sunshine are inclined
The trapezoidal fuzzy set concept of dimension and its computational methods are primarily introduced into during angle etc., it is assumed that intensity of sunshine, sunshine-duration, sunshine are cloudy
The parameters such as shadow, sunshine inclination angle and user's battery energy storage charge event obey Zadeh Fuzzy Distribution rules, in fuzzy probability
Distributed photovoltaic power generation system daily generation is calculated on the basis of analysis, is that distributed new generates electricity and intelligent grid scheduling fortune
The capable support that provides the necessary technical, solves distributed photovoltaic power generation system daily generation computational methods of the prior art and does not have
There are the uncertainty and randomness for considering influence factor comprehensively, computational methods applicability, practicality and application are difficult to be expired
The technical problem of foot.
Brief description of the drawings
In order to illustrate more clearly about the embodiment of the present invention or technical scheme of the prior art, below will be to embodiment or existing
There is the accompanying drawing used required in technology description to be briefly described, it should be apparent that, drawings in the following description are only this
Some embodiments of invention, for those of ordinary skill in the art, without having to pay creative labor, may be used also
To obtain other accompanying drawings according to these accompanying drawings.
Fig. 1 is a type point value Zadeh Fuzzy Calculation methods of photovoltaic generation daily generation provided in an embodiment of the present invention
Schematic flow sheet；
Fig. 2 is a type point value Zadeh Fuzzy Calculation devices of photovoltaic generation daily generation provided in an embodiment of the present invention
Structural representation.
Embodiment
The embodiments of the invention provide an a kind of type point value Zadeh Fuzzy Calculations method and dress for photovoltaic generation daily generation
Put, for solve distributed photovoltaic power generation system daily generation computational methods of the prior art without comprehensively consider influence because
The uncertainty and randomness of element, computational methods applicability, practicality and application are difficult to the technical problem being met.
To enable goal of the invention, feature, the advantage of the present invention more obvious and understandable, below in conjunction with the present invention
Accompanying drawing in embodiment, the technical scheme in the embodiment of the present invention is clearly and completely described, it is clear that disclosed below
Embodiment be only a part of embodiment of the invention, and not all embodiment.Based on the embodiment in the present invention, this area
All other embodiment that those of ordinary skill is obtained under the premise of creative work is not made, belongs to protection of the present invention
Scope.
Referring to Fig. 1, a kind of fuzzy meters of a type point value Zadeh of photovoltaic generation daily generation provided in an embodiment of the present invention
Calculation method, including：
101st, according to the photovoltaic generating system daily generation data of the user got from local monitor center, sent out by day
Electricity fuzzy set determines that formula calculates the one one type point value of the fuzzy uncertainty for determining photovoltaic generating system daily generation
Zadeh fuzzy sets, daily generation fuzzy set determines that formula is specially：
Wherein, EHiFor i-th of type point value Zadeh fuzzy set of daily generation one, EHiV1、EHiV2、...、EHiVnAnd μHiV1、
μHiV2、...、μHiVnRespectively from i-th daily generation fuzzy uncertainty value it is extremely low, very low, low, relatively low, medium, higher,
1 to n type point value Zadeh fuzzy number being determined in high, very high, high interval range and its it is subordinate to angle value.
First, the related data information of distributed photovoltaic power generation system daily generation is obtained from local monitor data center,
And using statistical analysis technique provide calculate determine user's photovoltaic generating system daily generation it is extremely low, very low, low, relatively low, medium,
One type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of higher, high, very high, high 9 fuzzy uncertainties.
102nd, user location N on daytime in one day is obtainedSHThe individual common n Value Data of period intensity of sunshine, and sent out according to photovoltaic
Relation between the power output and intensity of sunshine of electric system, determines that formula is calculated by intensity of sunshine fuzzy set and determines NSHWhen individual
The 2nd 1 type point value Zadeh of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of the power output of photovoltaic generating system and intensity of sunshine is obscured in section
Collection, intensity of sunshine fuzzy set determines that formula is specially：
Wherein,For period t, t=1,2 ..., NSH, the type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of intensity of sunshine one, AndRespectively from the interval of period t intensity of sunshine fuzzy uncertainty value
In the range of 1 to n type point value Zadeh fuzzy number determining and its be subordinate to angle value.
From Public meteorology data platform obtain user location one day in daytime NSHThe intensity of sunshine related data of individual period
Information, common n value.According to the characteristic relation between the power output and intensity of sunshine of photovoltaic generating system, using statistical analysis
Method calculates n numerical value fuzzy uncertainty relation for determining User window t photovoltaic power generation system output powers and intensity of sunshine
A type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets.
103rd, user location N on daytime in one day is obtainedSHIndividual sunshine-duration period common n Value Data, and sent out according to photovoltaic
The power output of electric system and the relation between the sunshine-duration, determine that formula is calculated by sunshine-duration fuzzy set and determine NSHWhen individual
The power output of photovoltaic generating system and the 3rd 1 type point value Zadeh of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of sunshine-duration are obscured in section
Collection, sunshine-duration fuzzy set determines that formula is specially：
Wherein,For the period t type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of sunshine-duration one,And1 respectively determined out of period t sunshine-duration fuzzy uncertainty value interval range
To n type point value Zadeh fuzzy numbers and its it is subordinate to angle value.
From Public meteorology data platform obtain user location one day in daytime NSHIndividual sunshine-duration period dependency number it is believed that
Breath, common n value.According to the characteristic relation between photovoltaic power generation system output power and sunshine-duration, using statistical analysis technique
Calculate the power output and the n numerical value fuzzy uncertainty relation of sunshine-duration for determining User window t photovoltaic generating systems
One type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets
104th, user location N on daytime in one day is obtainedSHThe individual common n Value Data of period sunshine shade, and sent out according to photovoltaic
Relation between the power output and sunshine shade of electric system, determines that formula is calculated by sunshine shadow blur collection and determines NSHWhen individual
The power output of photovoltaic generating system and the 4th 1 type point value Zadeh of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of sunshine shade are obscured in section
Collection, sunshine shadow blur collection determines that formula is specially：
Wherein,For the period t type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of sunshine shade one,And1 respectively determined out of the period t uncertain value of sunshine shadow blur interval range
To n type point value Zadeh fuzzy numbers and its it is subordinate to angle value.
From Public meteorology data platform obtain user location one day in daytime NSHIndividual period sunshine shade dependency number it is believed that
Breath, common n value.According to the characteristic relation between photovoltaic power generation system output power and sunshine shade, using statistical analysis technique
Calculate and determine User window t photovoltaic power generation system output powers and the one of n numerical value fuzzy uncertainty relation of sunshine shade
Type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets.
105th, user location N on daytime in one day is obtainedSHThe individual common n Value Data in period sunshine drift angle, and sent out according to photovoltaic
Relation between the power output of electric system and sunshine drift angle, determines that formula is calculated by sunshine drift angle fuzzy set and determines NSHWhen individual
The power output of photovoltaic generating system and May Day type point value Zadeh of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of sunshine drift angle are obscured in section
Collection, sunshine drift angle fuzzy set determines that formula is specially：
Wherein,For the period t type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of sunshine drift angle one,And1 respectively determined out of period t sunshine drift angle fuzzy uncertainty value interval range
To n type point value Zadeh fuzzy numbers and its it is subordinate to angle value.
From Public meteorology data platform obtain user location one day in daytime NSHIndividual period sunshine drift angle dependency number it is believed that
Breath, common n value.According to the characteristic relation between photovoltaic power generation system output power and sunshine drift angle, using statistical analysis technique
Calculate and determine User window t photovoltaic power generation system output powers and the one of n numerical value fuzzy uncertainty relation of sunshine drift angle
Type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets.
106th, the user location common n Value Data of environment temperature rise of the N number of period on daytime caused by sunshine in one day is obtained, and
According to the relation between the power output of photovoltaic generating system and environment temperature rise, formula is determined by sunshine environment temperature rise fuzzy set
Calculate and determine the power output of photovoltaic generating system and the 6th 1 type of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of environment temperature rise in N number of period
Point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, sunshine environment temperature rise fuzzy set determines that formula is specially：
Wherein,For the period t type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of sunshine environment temperature rise one, AndRespectively out of period t sunshine environment temperature rise fuzzy uncertainty value interval range really
Fixed 1 is to a n type point value Zadeh fuzzy numbers and its is subordinate to angle value.
From Public meteorology data platform obtain user location one day in daytime NSHThe individual period because of sunshine and caused by environment temperature
The related data information of the elevation amplitude value of degree, common n value.According between photovoltaic power generation system output power and environment temperature rise
Characteristic relation, determine User window t photovoltaic power generation system output powers and environment temperature rise n are calculated using statistical analysis technique
Numerical value obscures a type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of uncertainty relation.
107th, obscured by Fuzzy Analysis according to the one one type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, the 2nd 1 type point value Zadeh
Collection, the 3rd 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, the 4th 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, May Day type point value Zadeh fuzzy set,
61 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets ask for the daily generation that formula calculates photovoltaic generating system, daily generation by daily generation
Asking for formula is specially：
Wherein, kPVEFor photovoltaic power generation plate photoelectric conversion factors,For in historical data with intensity of sunshine in period b
(b=1,2 ..., probability that q) individual fuzzy number occurs,For in historical data with sunshine temperature rise in b-th of fuzzy number of period t
The probability of appearance,For the probability occurred in historical data with sunshine shade in b-th fuzzy number of period t,For history number
The probability occurred in sunshine drift angle in b-th of fuzzy number of period t,For in historical data with the sunshine-duration in period t
The probability that b-th of fuzzy number occurs.Represent NSHThe union of individual fuzzy set,Represent the union of fuzzy set.
Finally, using Fuzzy Analysis, calculating installed capacity is PPVN(be under reference temperature can generated output,
PPVNR1 photovoltaic generating system daily generation).
It should be noted that the general principle of the embodiment of the present invention is while considering influence distributed photovoltaic power generation system day
The random and fuzzy uncertainty of generated energy, it is main to consider in region where solar radiation intensity, sunshine-duration and user
Ground is different time and spatially intensity of sunshine, sunshine-duration, sunshine shade, sunshine inclination angle etc. be random and fuzzy uncertainty
Factor, N on daytime in user location one day is obtained by Public meteorology data platformSHIndividual period intensity of sunshine, sunshine-duration, day
According to the related data information of the parameter maximums, average value and minimum value such as shade, sunshine drift angle, pass through local monitor data center
The related data information of distributed photovoltaic power generation system period generated energy is obtained, electricity is obtained by energy management system EMS
The data of network operation, are primarily introduced into when considering intensity of sunshine, sunshine-duration, sunshine shade, sunshine inclination angle etc. and tie up trapezoidal
Fuzzy set concept and its computational methods, it is assumed that parameter and the use such as intensity of sunshine, sunshine-duration, sunshine shade, sunshine inclination angle
Family battery energy storage charge event obeys Zadeh Fuzzy Distribution rules, and distributed light is calculated on the basis of FUZZY PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
Photovoltaic generating system daily generation, is that distributed new generates electricity and intelligent grid management and running provide the necessary technical support.
The embodiments of the invention provide an a kind of type point value Zadeh Fuzzy Calculation methods of photovoltaic generation daily generation, bag
Include：According to the photovoltaic generating system daily generation data of the user got, calculate and determine photovoltaic generating system daily generation
One type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of fuzzy uncertainty；Acquisition user location N number of period intensity of sunshine number on daytime in one day
According to, and according to the relation between the power output and intensity of sunshine of photovoltaic generating system, calculate and determine photovoltaic generation in N number of period
The power output of system and a type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of intensity of sunshine；Obtain user place
Ground N number of sunshine-duration period data on daytime in one day, and power output according to photovoltaic generating system and between the sunshine-duration
Relation, calculates and determines one of the power output of photovoltaic generating system and the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of sunshine-duration in N number of period
Type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets；Acquisition user location N number of period sunshine shadow data on daytime in one day, and according to photovoltaic generation
Relation between the power output and sunshine shade of system, calculate determine in N number of period the power output of photovoltaic generating system with
One type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of sunshine shade；When obtaining user location daytime be N number of in one day
Relation between Duan Zhao drift angles data, and power output according to photovoltaic generating system and sunshine drift angle, is calculated when determining N number of
The power output of photovoltaic generating system and a type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of sunshine drift angle in section；
The acquisition user location environment temperature rise data of N number of period on daytime caused by sunshine in one day, and according to photovoltaic generating system
Relation between power output and environment temperature rise, calculates and determines the power output of photovoltaic generating system and environment temperature in N number of period
One type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse risen；By Fuzzy Analysis according to photovoltaic generating system
One type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of power output are calculated in the daily generation of photovoltaic generating system, the embodiment of the present invention by same
When consider the random and fuzzy uncertainty of influence distributed photovoltaic power generation system daily generation, it is main to consider sunshine in region
Radiation intensity, sunshine-duration and user location different time and spatially intensity of sunshine, the sunshine-duration, sunshine shade,
Sunshine inclination angle etc. is random and fuzzy uncertain sexual factor, in consideration intensity of sunshine, sunshine-duration, sunshine shade, sunshine drift angle
The trapezoidal fuzzy set concept of dimension and its computational methods are primarily introduced into during degree etc., it is assumed that intensity of sunshine, the sunshine-duration, sunshine shade,
The parameters such as sunshine inclination angle and user's battery energy storage charge event obey Zadeh Fuzzy Distribution rules, in fuzzy probability point
Distributed photovoltaic power generation system daily generation is calculated on the basis of analysis, is that distributed new generates electricity and intelligent grid management and running
Provide the necessary technical support, and solving distributed photovoltaic power generation system daily generation computational methods of the prior art does not have
The uncertainty and randomness of influence factor are considered comprehensively, and computational methods applicability, practicality and application are difficult to be met
Technical problem.
It is the type point value Zadeh Fuzzy Calculations to a kind of photovoltaic generation daily generation provided in an embodiment of the present invention above
The detailed description of method, below by an a kind of type point value Zadeh of photovoltaic generation daily generation provided in an embodiment of the present invention
Fuzzy Calculation device is described in detail.
Referring to Fig. 2, a kind of fuzzy meters of a type point value Zadeh of photovoltaic generation daily generation provided in an embodiment of the present invention
Device is calculated, including：
First computing module 201, for the photovoltaic generating system daily generation data according to the user got, calculates true
Determine the one one type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertainty of photovoltaic generating system daily generation；
Second computing module 202, for obtaining N number of period intensity of sunshine data on daytime in user location one day, and root
According to the relation between the power output and intensity of sunshine of photovoltaic generating system, calculate and determine photovoltaic generating system in N number of period
2nd 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of power output and intensity of sunshine；
3rd computing module 203, for obtaining N number of sunshine-duration period data on daytime in user location one day, and root
According to the power output of photovoltaic generating system and the relation between the sunshine-duration, calculate and determine photovoltaic generating system in N number of period
3rd 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of power output and sunshine-duration；
4th computing module 204, for obtaining N number of period sunshine shadow data on daytime in user location one day, and root
According to the relation between the power output and sunshine shade of photovoltaic generating system, calculate and determine photovoltaic generating system in N number of period
Power output and the 4th 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of sunshine shade；
5th computing module 205, for obtaining N number of period sunshine drift angle data on daytime in user location one day, and root
According to the relation between the power output of photovoltaic generating system and sunshine drift angle, calculate and determine photovoltaic generating system in N number of period
Power output and May Day type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of sunshine drift angle；
6th computing module 206, for obtaining environment temperature of the N number of period on daytime caused by sunshine in user location one day
The relation between data, and power output according to photovoltaic generating system and environment temperature rise is risen, calculates and determines photovoltaic in N number of period
The power output of electricity generation system and the 6th 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of environment temperature rise；
7th computing module 207, for by Fuzzy Analysis according to the one one type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, second
One type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, the 3rd 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, the 4th 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, May Day type
Point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, the 6th 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets calculate the daily generation of photovoltaic generating system.
It is apparent to those skilled in the art that, for convenience and simplicity of description, the system of foregoing description,
The specific work process of device and unit, may be referred to the corresponding process in preceding method embodiment, will not be repeated here.
In several embodiments provided herein, it should be understood that disclosed system, apparatus and method can be with
Realize by another way.For example, device embodiment described above is only schematical, for example, the unit
Divide, only a kind of division of logic function there can be other dividing mode when actually realizing, such as multiple units or component
Another system can be combined or be desirably integrated into, or some features can be ignored, or do not perform.It is another, it is shown or
The coupling each other discussed or direct-coupling or communication connection can be the indirect couplings of device or unit by some interfaces
Close or communicate to connect, can be electrical, machinery or other forms.
The unit illustrated as separating component can be or may not be it is physically separate, it is aobvious as unit
The part shown can be or may not be physical location, you can with positioned at a place, or can also be distributed to multiple
On NE.Some or all of unit therein can be selected to realize the mesh of this embodiment scheme according to the actual needs
's.
In addition, each functional unit in each embodiment of the invention can be integrated in a processing unit, can also
That unit is individually physically present, can also two or more units it is integrated in a unit.Above-mentioned integrated list
Member can both be realized in the form of hardware, it would however also be possible to employ the form of SFU software functional unit is realized.
If the integrated unit is realized using in the form of SFU software functional unit and as independent production marketing or used
When, it can be stored in a computer read/write memory medium.Understood based on such, technical scheme is substantially
The part contributed in other words to prior art or all or part of the technical scheme can be in the form of software products
Embody, the computer software product is stored in a storage medium, including some instructions are to cause a computer
Equipment (can be personal computer, server, or network equipment etc.) performs the complete of each embodiment methods described of the invention
Portion or part steps.And foregoing storage medium includes：USB flash disk, mobile hard disk, read-only storage (ROM, Read-
OnlyMemory), random access memory (RAM, Random Access Memory), magnetic disc or CD etc. are various to deposit
Store up the medium of program code.
Described above, the above embodiments are merely illustrative of the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than its limitations；Although with reference to before
Embodiment is stated the present invention is described in detail, it will be understood by those within the art that：It still can be to preceding
State the technical scheme described in each embodiment to modify, or equivalent substitution is carried out to which part technical characteristic；And these
Modification is replaced, and the essence of appropriate technical solution is departed from the spirit and scope of various embodiments of the present invention technical scheme.
Claims (10)
1. an a kind of type point value Zadeh Fuzzy Calculation methods of photovoltaic generation daily generation, it is characterised in that including：
According to the photovoltaic generating system daily generation data of the user got, calculate and determine that the photovoltaic generating system day generates electricity
One one type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertainty of amount；
Acquisition user location N number of period intensity of sunshine data on daytime in one day, and according to the output of the photovoltaic generating system
Relation between power and intensity of sunshine, calculates and determines that the power output and sunshine of photovoltaic generating system described in N number of period are strong
2nd 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of degree；
Acquisition user location N number of sunshine-duration period data on daytime in one day, and according to the output of the photovoltaic generating system
Relation between power and sunshine-duration, when calculating the power output and sunshine of photovoltaic generating system described in determination N number of period
Between fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse the 3rd 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets；
Acquisition user location N number of period sunshine shadow data on daytime in one day, and according to the output of the photovoltaic generating system
Relation between power and sunshine shade, calculates and determines that the power output of photovoltaic generating system described in N number of period and sunshine are cloudy
4th 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of shadow；
Acquisition user location N number of period sunshine drift angle data on daytime in one day, and according to the output of the photovoltaic generating system
Relation between power and sunshine drift angle, calculates and determines that the power output and sunshine of photovoltaic generating system described in N number of period are inclined
May Day type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse at angle；
The acquisition user location environment temperature rise data of N number of period on daytime caused by sunshine in one day, and sent out according to the photovoltaic
Relation between the power output of electric system and environment temperature rise, calculates the output for determining photovoltaic generating system described in N number of period
Power and the 6th 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of environment temperature rise；
Obscured by Fuzzy Analysis according to the one one type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, the 2nd 1 type point value Zadeh
Collection, the 3rd 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, the 4th 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, May Day type point value
Zadeh fuzzy sets, the 6th 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets calculate the daily generation of the photovoltaic generating system.
2. a type point value Zadeh Fuzzy Calculation methods of photovoltaic generation daily generation according to claim 1, its feature exists
In the photovoltaic generating system daily generation data for the user that the basis is got calculate and determine the photovoltaic generating system day
One one type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertainty of generated energy include：
It is fuzzy by daily generation according to the photovoltaic generating system daily generation data of the user got from local monitor center
Collection determines that formula calculates the one one type point value Zadeh moulds of the fuzzy uncertainty for determining the photovoltaic generating system daily generation
Paste collection, the daily generation fuzzy set determines that formula is specially：
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<mi>i</mi>
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<mi>n</mi>
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<mo>;</mo>
</mrow>
Wherein, EHiFor i-th of type point value Zadeh fuzzy set of daily generation one, EHiV1、EHiV2、...、EHiVnAnd μHiV1、
μHiV2、...、μHiVnRespectively from i-th daily generation fuzzy uncertainty value it is extremely low, very low, low, relatively low, medium, higher,
1 to n type point value Zadeh fuzzy number being determined in high, very high, high interval range and its it is subordinate to angle value.
3. a type point value Zadeh Fuzzy Calculation methods of photovoltaic generation daily generation according to claim 2, its feature exists
In, the acquisition user location N number of period intensity of sunshine data on daytime in one day, and according to the defeated of the photovoltaic generating system
The relation gone out between power and intensity of sunshine, calculates the power output and sunshine for determining photovoltaic generating system described in N number of period
2nd 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of intensity include：
Acquisition user location N on daytime in one daySHThe individual common n Value Data of period intensity of sunshine, and according to the photovoltaic generation system
Relation between the power output and intensity of sunshine of system, determines that formula is calculated by intensity of sunshine fuzzy set and determines NSHIn the individual period
The power output of the photovoltaic generating system and the 2nd 1 type point value Zadeh of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of intensity of sunshine are fuzzy
Collection, the intensity of sunshine fuzzy set determines that formula is specially：
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<mi>&mu;</mi>
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</mrow>
Wherein,For period t, t=1,2 ..., NSH, the type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of intensity of sunshine one, AndRespectively from the interval of period t intensity of sunshine fuzzy uncertainty value
In the range of 1 to n type point value Zadeh fuzzy number determining and its be subordinate to angle value.
4. a type point value Zadeh Fuzzy Calculation methods of photovoltaic generation daily generation according to claim 3, its feature exists
In, the acquisition user location N number of sunshine-duration period data on daytime in one day, and according to the defeated of the photovoltaic generating system
The relation gone out between power and sunshine-duration, calculates the power output and sunshine for determining photovoltaic generating system described in N number of period
3rd 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of time include：
Acquisition user location N on daytime in one daySHIndividual sunshine-duration period common n Value Data, and according to the photovoltaic generation system
The power output of system and the relation between the sunshine-duration, determine that formula is calculated by sunshine-duration fuzzy set and determine NSHIn the individual period
The power output of the photovoltaic generating system and the 3rd 1 type point value Zadeh of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of sunshine-duration are fuzzy
Collection, the sunshine-duration fuzzy set determines that formula is specially：
<mrow>
<msubsup>
<mi>T</mi>
<mi>V</mi>
<mi>t</mi>
</msubsup>
<mo>=</mo>
<mfrac>
<msubsup>
<mi>&mu;</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>T</mi>
<mi>V</mi>
<mn>1</mn>
</mrow>
<mi>t</mi>
</msubsup>
<msubsup>
<mi>T</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>V</mi>
<mn>1</mn>
</mrow>
<mi>t</mi>
</msubsup>
</mfrac>
<mo>+</mo>
<mfrac>
<msubsup>
<mi>&mu;</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>T</mi>
<mi>V</mi>
<mn>2</mn>
</mrow>
<mi>t</mi>
</msubsup>
<msubsup>
<mi>T</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>V</mi>
<mn>2</mn>
</mrow>
<mi>t</mi>
</msubsup>
</mfrac>
<mo>+</mo>
<mo>...</mo>
<mo>+</mo>
<mfrac>
<msubsup>
<mi>&mu;</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>T</mi>
<mi>V</mi>
<mi>n</mi>
</mrow>
<mi>t</mi>
</msubsup>
<msubsup>
<mi>T</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>V</mi>
<mi>n</mi>
</mrow>
<mi>t</mi>
</msubsup>
</mfrac>
<mo>;</mo>
</mrow>
Wherein,For the period t type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of sunshine-duration one,And1 respectively determined out of period t sunshine-duration fuzzy uncertainty value interval range
To n type point value Zadeh fuzzy numbers and its it is subordinate to angle value.
5. a type point value Zadeh Fuzzy Calculation methods of photovoltaic generation daily generation according to claim 4, its feature exists
In, the acquisition user location N number of period sunshine shadow data on daytime in one day, and according to the defeated of the photovoltaic generating system
The relation gone out between power and sunshine shade, calculates the power output and sunshine for determining photovoltaic generating system described in N number of period
4th 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of shade include：
Acquisition user location N on daytime in one daySHThe individual common n Value Data of period sunshine shade, and according to the photovoltaic generation system
Relation between the power output and sunshine shade of system, determines that formula is calculated by sunshine shadow blur collection and determines NSHIn the individual period
The power output of the photovoltaic generating system and the 4th 1 type point value Zadeh of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of sunshine shade are obscured
Collection, the sunshine shadow blur collection determines that formula is specially：
<mrow>
<msubsup>
<mi>Y</mi>
<mi>V</mi>
<mi>t</mi>
</msubsup>
<mo>=</mo>
<mfrac>
<msubsup>
<mi>&mu;</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>Y</mi>
<mi>V</mi>
<mn>1</mn>
</mrow>
<mi>t</mi>
</msubsup>
<msubsup>
<mi>Y</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>V</mi>
<mn>1</mn>
</mrow>
<mi>t</mi>
</msubsup>
</mfrac>
<mo>+</mo>
<mfrac>
<msubsup>
<mi>&mu;</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>Y</mi>
<mi>V</mi>
<mn>2</mn>
</mrow>
<mi>t</mi>
</msubsup>
<msubsup>
<mi>Y</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>V</mi>
<mn>2</mn>
</mrow>
<mi>t</mi>
</msubsup>
</mfrac>
<mo>+</mo>
<mo>...</mo>
<mo>+</mo>
<mfrac>
<msubsup>
<mi>&mu;</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>Y</mi>
<mi>V</mi>
<mi>n</mi>
</mrow>
<mi>t</mi>
</msubsup>
<msubsup>
<mi>Y</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>V</mi>
<mi>n</mi>
</mrow>
<mi>t</mi>
</msubsup>
</mfrac>
<mo>;</mo>
</mrow>
Wherein,For the period t type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of sunshine shade one,And1 respectively determined out of the period t uncertain value of sunshine shadow blur interval range
To n type point value Zadeh fuzzy numbers and its it is subordinate to angle value.
6. a type point value Zadeh Fuzzy Calculation methods of photovoltaic generation daily generation according to claim 5, its feature exists
In, the acquisition user location N number of period sunshine drift angle data on daytime in one day, and according to the defeated of the photovoltaic generating system
The relation gone out between power and sunshine drift angle, calculates the power output and sunshine for determining photovoltaic generating system described in N number of period
May Day type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of drift angle include：
Acquisition user location N on daytime in one daySHThe individual common n Value Data in period sunshine drift angle, and according to the photovoltaic generation system
Relation between the power output of system and sunshine drift angle, determines that formula is calculated by sunshine drift angle fuzzy set and determines NSHIn the individual period
The power output of the photovoltaic generating system and May Day type point value Zadeh of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of sunshine drift angle are obscured
Collection, sunshine drift angle fuzzy set determines that formula is specially：
<mrow>
<msubsup>
<mi>A</mi>
<mi>V</mi>
<mi>t</mi>
</msubsup>
<mo>=</mo>
<mfrac>
<msubsup>
<mi>&mu;</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>A</mi>
<mi>V</mi>
<mn>1</mn>
</mrow>
<mi>t</mi>
</msubsup>
<msubsup>
<mi>A</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>V</mi>
<mn>1</mn>
</mrow>
<mi>t</mi>
</msubsup>
</mfrac>
<mo>+</mo>
<mfrac>
<msubsup>
<mi>&mu;</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>A</mi>
<mi>V</mi>
<mn>2</mn>
</mrow>
<mi>t</mi>
</msubsup>
<msubsup>
<mi>A</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>V</mi>
<mn>2</mn>
</mrow>
<mi>t</mi>
</msubsup>
</mfrac>
<mo>+</mo>
<mo>...</mo>
<mo>+</mo>
<mfrac>
<msubsup>
<mi>&mu;</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>A</mi>
<mi>V</mi>
<mi>n</mi>
</mrow>
<mi>t</mi>
</msubsup>
<msubsup>
<mi>A</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>V</mi>
<mi>n</mi>
</mrow>
<mi>t</mi>
</msubsup>
</mfrac>
<mo>;</mo>
</mrow>
Wherein,For the period t type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of sunshine drift angle one,And1 respectively determined out of period t sunshine drift angle fuzzy uncertainty value interval range
To n type point value Zadeh fuzzy numbers and its it is subordinate to angle value.
7. a type point value Zadeh Fuzzy Calculation methods of photovoltaic generation daily generation according to claim 6, its feature exists
In, the acquisition user location environment temperature rise data of N number of period on daytime caused by sunshine in one day, and according to the photovoltaic
Relation between the power output of electricity generation system and environment temperature rise, calculates and determines the defeated of photovoltaic generating system described in N number of period
Going out power and the 6th 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of environment temperature rise includes：
Acquisition user location N on daytime in one daySHThe common n Value Data of environment temperature rise of the individual period caused by sunshine, and according to institute
The relation between the power output of photovoltaic generating system and environment temperature rise is stated, formula meter is determined by sunshine environment temperature rise fuzzy set
Calculate and determine NSHThe power output of photovoltaic generating system described in the individual period and the 6th of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of environment temperature rise
One type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, the sunshine environment temperature rise fuzzy set determines that formula is specially：
<mrow>
<msubsup>
<mi>&Delta;T</mi>
<mi>V</mi>
<mi>t</mi>
</msubsup>
<mo>=</mo>
<mfrac>
<msubsup>
<mi>&mu;</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>&Delta;</mi>
<mi>T</mi>
<mi>V</mi>
<mn>1</mn>
</mrow>
<mi>t</mi>
</msubsup>
<mrow>
<msubsup>
<mi>&Delta;T</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>V</mi>
<mn>1</mn>
</mrow>
<mi>t</mi>
</msubsup>
</mrow>
</mfrac>
<mo>+</mo>
<mfrac>
<msubsup>
<mi>&mu;</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>&Delta;</mi>
<mi>T</mi>
<mi>V</mi>
<mn>2</mn>
</mrow>
<mi>t</mi>
</msubsup>
<mrow>
<msubsup>
<mi>&Delta;T</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>V</mi>
<mn>2</mn>
</mrow>
<mi>t</mi>
</msubsup>
</mrow>
</mfrac>
<mo>+</mo>
<mo>...</mo>
<mo>+</mo>
<mfrac>
<msubsup>
<mi>&mu;</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>&Delta;</mi>
<mi>T</mi>
<mi>V</mi>
<mi>n</mi>
</mrow>
<mi>t</mi>
</msubsup>
<mrow>
<msubsup>
<mi>&Delta;T</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>V</mi>
<mi>n</mi>
</mrow>
<mi>t</mi>
</msubsup>
</mrow>
</mfrac>
<mo>;</mo>
</mrow>
Wherein,For the period t type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of sunshine environment temperature rise one, AndRespectively out of period t sunshine environment temperature rise fuzzy uncertainty value interval range really
Fixed 1 is to a n type point value Zadeh fuzzy numbers and its is subordinate to angle value.
8. a type point value Zadeh Fuzzy Calculation methods of photovoltaic generation daily generation according to claim 7, its feature exists
In, it is described by Fuzzy Analysis according to the one one type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, the 2nd 1 type point value Zadeh
Fuzzy set, the 3rd 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, the 4th 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, May Day type point
The daily generation that value Zadeh fuzzy sets, the 6th 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets calculate the photovoltaic generating system includes：
Obscured by Fuzzy Analysis according to the one one type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, the 2nd 1 type point value Zadeh
Collection, the 3rd 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, the 4th 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, May Day type point value
Zadeh fuzzy sets, the 6th 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets ask for formula by daily generation and calculate the photovoltaic generation system
The daily generation of system, the daily generation asks for formula and is specially：
Wherein, kPVEFor photovoltaic power generation plate photoelectric conversion factors,For in historical data with intensity of sunshine period b (b=1,
2 ..., probability that q) individual fuzzy number occurs,To occur in historical data with sunshine temperature rise in b-th of fuzzy number of period t
Probability,For the probability occurred in historical data with sunshine shade in b-th fuzzy number of period t,For historical data
In the probability that occurs with sunshine drift angle in b-th fuzzy number of period t,For in historical data with the sunshine-duration in period t b
The probability that individual fuzzy number occurs.Represent NSHThe union of individual fuzzy set, ∨ represents the union of fuzzy set.
9. an a kind of type point value Zadeh Fuzzy Calculation devices of photovoltaic generation daily generation, it is characterised in that including：
First computing module, for the photovoltaic generating system daily generation data according to the user got, is calculated described in determining
One one type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertainty of photovoltaic generating system daily generation；
Second computing module, for obtaining N number of period intensity of sunshine data on daytime in user location one day, and according to the light
Relation between the power output and intensity of sunshine of photovoltaic generating system, calculates and determines photovoltaic generating system described in N number of period
2nd 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of power output and intensity of sunshine；
3rd computing module, for obtaining N number of sunshine-duration period data on daytime in user location one day, and according to the light
The power output of photovoltaic generating system and the relation between the sunshine-duration, calculate and determine photovoltaic generating system described in N number of period
3rd 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of power output and sunshine-duration；
4th computing module, for obtaining N number of period sunshine shadow data on daytime in user location one day, and according to the light
Relation between the power output and sunshine shade of photovoltaic generating system, calculates and determines photovoltaic generating system described in N number of period
Power output and the 4th 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of sunshine shade；
5th computing module, for obtaining N number of period sunshine drift angle data on daytime in user location one day, and according to the light
Relation between the power output of photovoltaic generating system and sunshine drift angle, calculates and determines photovoltaic generating system described in N number of period
Power output and May Day type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of sunshine drift angle；
6th computing module, for obtaining environment temperature rise data of the N number of period on daytime caused by sunshine in user location one day,
And the relation between power output according to the photovoltaic generating system and environment temperature rise, calculate and determine light described in N number of period
The power output of photovoltaic generating system and the 6th 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets of the fuzzy uncertain sexual intercourse of environment temperature rise；
7th computing module, for by Fuzzy Analysis according to the one one type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, described second
One type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, the 3rd 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, the 4th 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets,
May Day type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, the 6th 1 type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets calculate the photovoltaic generating system
Daily generation.
10. a type point value Zadeh Fuzzy Calculation devices of photovoltaic generation daily generation according to claim 9, its feature
It is, first computing module is specifically included：
Computing unit, for the photovoltaic generating system daily generation data according to the user got from local monitor center, leads to
Cross daily generation fuzzy set and determine that formula calculates the first of the fuzzy uncertainty for determining the photovoltaic generating system daily generation
One type point value Zadeh fuzzy sets, the daily generation fuzzy set determines that formula is specially：
<mrow>
<msub>
<mi>E</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>H</mi>
<mi>i</mi>
</mrow>
</msub>
<mo>=</mo>
<mfrac>
<msub>
<mi>&mu;</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>H</mi>
<mi>i</mi>
<mi>V</mi>
<mn>1</mn>
</mrow>
</msub>
<msub>
<mi>E</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>H</mi>
<mi>i</mi>
<mi>V</mi>
<mn>1</mn>
</mrow>
</msub>
</mfrac>
<mo>+</mo>
<mfrac>
<msub>
<mi>&mu;</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>H</mi>
<mi>i</mi>
<mi>V</mi>
<mn>2</mn>
</mrow>
</msub>
<msub>
<mi>E</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>H</mi>
<mi>i</mi>
<mi>V</mi>
<mn>2</mn>
</mrow>
</msub>
</mfrac>
<mo>+</mo>
<mfrac>
<msub>
<mi>&mu;</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>H</mi>
<mi>i</mi>
<mi>V</mi>
<mn>3</mn>
</mrow>
</msub>
<msub>
<mi>E</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>H</mi>
<mi>i</mi>
<mi>V</mi>
<mn>3</mn>
</mrow>
</msub>
</mfrac>
<mo>+</mo>
<mo>...</mo>
<mo>+</mo>
<mfrac>
<msub>
<mi>&mu;</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>H</mi>
<mi>i</mi>
<mi>V</mi>
<mi>n</mi>
</mrow>
</msub>
<msub>
<mi>E</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>H</mi>
<mi>i</mi>
<mi>V</mi>
<mi>n</mi>
</mrow>
</msub>
</mfrac>
<mo>;</mo>
</mrow>
Wherein, EHiFor i-th of type point value Zadeh fuzzy set of daily generation one, EHiV1、EHiV2、...、EHiVnAnd μHiV1、
μHiV2、...、μHiVnRespectively from i-th daily generation fuzzy uncertainty value it is extremely low, very low, low, relatively low, medium, higher,
1 to n type point value Zadeh fuzzy number being determined in high, very high, high interval range and its it is subordinate to angle value.
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US20050039787A1 (en) * | 2003-08-20 | 2005-02-24 | New Energy Options, Inc. | Method and system for predicting solar energy production |
| CN103362507A (en) * | 2013-07-09 | 2013-10-23 | 中国矿业大学 | Method for improving memory cutting execution precision of coal mining machine |
| CN106300423A (en) * | 2016-09-07 | 2017-01-04 | 广东工业大学 | Based on the trapezoidal fuzzy method and device determining photovoltaic generation daily generation of three-dimensional |
| CN106383937A (en) * | 2016-09-07 | 2017-02-08 | 广东工业大学 | Method and system for calculating output power of water cooling photovoltaic-solar thermal power generation system |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| US20050039787A1 (en) * | 2003-08-20 | 2005-02-24 | New Energy Options, Inc. | Method and system for predicting solar energy production |
| CN103362507A (en) * | 2013-07-09 | 2013-10-23 | 中国矿业大学 | Method for improving memory cutting execution precision of coal mining machine |
| CN106300423A (en) * | 2016-09-07 | 2017-01-04 | 广东工业大学 | Based on the trapezoidal fuzzy method and device determining photovoltaic generation daily generation of three-dimensional |
| CN106383937A (en) * | 2016-09-07 | 2017-02-08 | 广东工业大学 | Method and system for calculating output power of water cooling photovoltaic-solar thermal power generation system |
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