CN107239871B - Voltage response load adjustment potential analysis method and device based on historical data - Google Patents
Voltage response load adjustment potential analysis method and device based on historical data Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a historical data-based voltage response load regulation potential analysis method and a historical data-based voltage response load regulation potential analysis device, wherein the method comprises the steps of establishing a voltage response model of a low-voltage bus load, and calculating a voltage response factor of the low-voltage bus load and the voltage regulation sensitivity of a load regulation transformer; judging whether the on-load regulating transformer has gear regulating capacity or not; and determining the load regulation potential of the on-load regulation transformer with the gear regulation capacity. According to the invention, the load regulation potential of the low-voltage bus of each on-load regulating transformer is analyzed and calculated based on the historical data of the gear regulation of the on-load regulating transformer and the real-time operation information of the power grid, the power regulation potential of each on-load regulating transformer for regulating the load of the low-voltage bus at each gear can be calculated on line, data support is provided for formulating a reasonable voltage response load control strategy, the effective utilization of load side resources is facilitated, and meanwhile, the load side resources are facilitated to participate in the dispatching operation of the power grid in a friendly manner.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a power system operation and control technology, in particular to a voltage response load regulation potential analysis method and device based on historical data.
Background
With the development of the smart grid technology, more and more attention is paid to the participation of grid-friendly loads in grid interactive operation, wherein voltage response loads refer to the fact that the load size is changed by actively adjusting the voltage on the premise that the voltage quality is guaranteed by means of the voltage static characteristic of the loads, so that the power balance of a grid is rapidly achieved. From a theoretical perspective, the voltage response load can play an important role in aspects of system peak regulation, energy conservation, emission reduction and the like, and even the problems of large drop of power grid frequency, cross-section tidal current out-of-limit, line and transformer overload and the like caused by direct current blocking are solved in an auxiliary manner.
In the aspect of participation of voltage response loads in dispatching operation of a power grid, researchers develop exploration research on control strategies of the voltage response loads aiming at specific application scenes such as frequency recovery after direct current blocking, power system energy saving and the like, however, if the voltage response loads are put into practical application, the system needs to have functions of on-line calculation and monitoring of voltage response load regulation potential, and at present, an effective technical means is lacked in the aspect of calculation and evaluation of the regulation potential of the voltage response loads.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to overcome the defects of the prior art, the invention provides a voltage response load adjustment potential analysis method and device based on historical data, which comprehensively considers various factors such as the self characteristics of the load, the bus voltage level, the gear state of a transformer and the like, calculates the magnitude of the load adjustment potential on line and provides data support for the voltage response load to participate in the dispatching operation of a power grid.
In order to achieve the purpose of the invention, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
the invention provides a voltage response load regulation potential analysis method based on historical data, which comprises the following steps:
establishing a voltage response model of the low-voltage bus load by acquiring historical data and adopting a regression analysis method, and calculating a voltage response factor of the low-voltage bus load and the voltage regulation sensitivity of the load regulation transformer in the current time scene;
judging whether the on-load regulating transformer has gear regulating capacity or not according to the voltage response factor of the low-voltage bus load;
and determining the load regulation potential of the on-load regulating transformer with the gear regulation capacity according to the voltage regulation sensitivity of the on-load regulating transformer.
The steps of obtaining historical data, establishing a voltage response model of the load of the low-voltage bus of the on-load regulating transformer by adopting a regression analysis method, and calculating the voltage response factor of the load of the low-voltage bus and the voltage regulation sensitivity of the on-load regulating transformer in the current time scene comprise the following steps:
and acquiring historical data, and obtaining an initial effective sample space according to the historical data.
The historical data comprises N y And the voltage and the active power of the low-voltage bus are regulated within a time period of 10-30 minutes before and after the on-load regulating transformer shifts in the year.
The obtaining the effective sample space according to the historical data comprises:
obtaining an initial effective sample space in an mth time scenario as follows:
{(U 01 ,P 01 ,U 11 ,P 11 )；(U 02 ,P 02 ,U 12 ,P 12 )；…；(U 0z ,P 0z ,U 1z ,P 1z )} m
wherein z is the total number of on-load regulating transformer gear regulation times, k is the index of the number of on-load regulating transformer gear regulation times, and k =1,2, \8230; u shape 0z 、P 0z Respectively represents the voltage and the active power of a low-voltage bus before the z-th gear adjustment of the on-load regulating transformer, U 1z 、P 1z And respectively representing the voltage and the active power of the low-voltage bus after the z-th gear adjustment of the on-load regulating transformer.
The step of establishing the voltage response model of the load of the low-voltage bus of the on-load regulating transformer by adopting a regression analysis method comprises the following steps:
the voltage response model of the load of the low-voltage bus of the on-load regulating transformer is expressed as follows:
where P is the active power of the low voltage bus load, Z ％ 、I ％ 、P ％ Respectively the proportion of constant impedance, constant current and constant power in the low-voltage bus load, and meets the requirement of Z ％ +I ％ +P ％ ＝1。
The step of calculating the voltage response factor of the low-voltage bus load in the current time scene comprises the following steps:
obtaining the following latest effective sample space according to the effective sample space and the voltage response model:
wherein X and Y are new effective sample spaces;
coefficient matrix C = [ Z ] ％ ，I ％ ，P ％ ] T And C is estimated by adopting a least square method, comprising the following steps:
C＝(X T X) -1 X T Y
wherein T represents transpose;
from the latest valid sample space, the voltage response factor γ is expressed as:
γ＝Z ％ (1-0.99 2 )+I ％ (1-0.99)＝0.0199Z ％ +0.01I ％ 。
calculating the voltage regulation sensitivity of the load regulation transformer comprises:
sensitivity S of k-th gear adjustment of on-load regulating transformer U_k Expressed as:
s U_k ＝|U 1_k -U 0_k |/U 0_k
wherein, U 1_k The voltage of the low-voltage bus is adjusted for the kth gear of the on-load regulating transformer; u shape 0_k Adjusting the voltage of a front low-voltage bus for the k-th gear of the on-load regulating transformer;
voltage regulation sensitivity s of on-load regulating transformer with gear regulation capability Uil Expressed as:
wherein, N s_il For satisfying the operation scene S (SP) in the historical data i 、SQ l ) The number of samples of (a) to (b),SP i for the ith active power interval, SQ l Is the first reactive power interval, P k And Q k Respectively the active power and the reactive power when the k-th gear of the on-load regulating transformer is regulated.
The step of judging whether the on-load regulating transformer has the gear regulating capacity or not according to the voltage response factor of the low-voltage bus load comprises the following steps:
if any one of the following modes occurs, the on-load regulating transformer is not provided with gear regulating capacity:
1) Certain running information of the on-load regulating transformer is invalid;
2) The current gear of the on-load regulating transformer reaches the lowest gear;
3) When the on-load regulating transformer regulates the first gear under the current gear, the voltage of the medium-voltage bus or the low-voltage bus is lower than the lower voltage limit;
4) The daily action times of the on-load regulating transformer reach the daily action time limit value;
5) The voltage response factor is less than or equal to the voltage response factor threshold;
6) For the controllable transformers which run in parallel, when one controllable transformer is not on-load voltage-regulating or locked, other controllable transformers except the controllable transformer do not have the gear regulating capability currently.
The determining the load regulation potential of the on-load regulation transformer with the gear regulation capability according to the voltage regulation sensitivity of the on-load regulation transformer comprises the following steps:
and calculating the adjustment potential of the low-voltage bus load and the adjustment potential of the regional load according to the operation scene, the active power, the reactive power, the voltage of the low-voltage bus, the gear state, whether the transformer operates in parallel or not, whether the transformer operating in parallel with the transformer is adjustable or not and the number of gear actions in the day of the transformer.
The calculating the adjustment potential of the low-voltage bus load and the adjustment potential of the regional load according to the operation information of the on-load adjustment transformer comprises the following steps:
according to the voltage regulation sensitivity s of the on-load regulating transformer with gear regulation capability Uil Computing device with gear adjustmentThe change value U of the voltage of the low-voltage bus of each gear of the on-load regulating transformer for saving capacity 1s The method comprises the following steps:
U 1s ＝U 0 (1+s Uil )
according to U 1s The active power regulation potential P of the on-load regulation transformer with gear regulation capacity for regulating the load of the low-voltage bus at each gear r_1s_it Expressed as:
P r_1s_it ＝P 0 -f(U 1s )
wherein, f (U) 1s ) The active power of the low-voltage bus load after the first gear is adjusted by the on-load regulating transformer is shown, and
the number of the current on-load regulating transformers with gear regulating capacity in the transformer substation j is recorded as n trj Thus the regulation potential P of the low-voltage bus load of the substation j r_1s_st_j Expressed as:
recording the number of the transformer substations in the region as n st The adjustment potential of the zone load is then expressed as:
wherein, P r_1s_area Is the regulation potential of the regional load.
The time scenes comprise a spring working day and day scene, a spring working day and night scene, a spring non-working day and day scene, a spring non-working day and night scene summer workday daytime scene, summer workday nighttime scene, summer non-workday daytime scene, summer non-workday nighttime scene an autumn workday daytime scene, an autumn workday nighttime scene, an autumn non-workday daytime scene, an autumn non-workday nighttime scene, a winter workday daytime scene, a winter workday nighttime scene, a winter non-workday nighttime scene, and a winter non-workday nighttime scene.
The invention also provides a voltage response load regulation potential analysis device based on historical data, which comprises:
the calculation module is used for establishing a voltage response model of the low-voltage bus load by acquiring historical data and adopting a regression analysis method, and calculating a voltage response factor of the low-voltage bus load and the voltage regulation sensitivity of the on-load regulating transformer in the current time scene;
the judging module is used for judging whether the on-load regulating transformer has gear regulating capacity or not according to the voltage response factor of the low-voltage bus load;
and the determining module is used for determining the load regulation potential of the on-load regulating transformer with the gear regulation capacity according to the voltage regulation sensitivity of the on-load regulating transformer.
The device also comprises an acquisition module used for acquiring historical data and obtaining an initial effective sample space according to the historical data.
The historical data comprises N y And the voltage and active power of the low-voltage bus are in a time period of 10-30 minutes before and after the gear action of the on-load regulating transformer in the year.
The calculation module is specifically configured to:
an initial effective sample space under the mth time scenario is obtained as follows:
{(U 01 ,P 01 ,U 11 ,P 11 )；(U 02 ,P 02 ,U 12 ,P 12 )；…；(U 0z ,P 0z ,U 1z ,P 1z )} m
wherein z is the total number of on-load regulating transformer gear regulation times, k is the index of on-load regulating transformer gear regulation times, k =1,2, \8230; u shape 0z 、P 0z Respectively represents the voltage and the active power of a low-voltage bus before the z-th gear adjustment of the on-load regulating transformer, U 1z 、P 1z And respectively representing the voltage and the active power of the low-voltage bus after the z-th gear adjustment of the on-load regulating transformer.
The calculation module is specifically configured to:
the voltage response model of the low voltage bus load is expressed as:
where P is the active power of the low voltage bus load, Z ％ 、I ％ 、P ％ The constant impedance, the constant current and the constant power part respectively account for the proportion in the low-voltage bus load and satisfy Z ％ +I ％ +P ％ ＝1。
The calculation module is specifically configured to:
according to the effective sample space and the voltage response model, the following latest effective sample space is obtained:
wherein X and Y are new effective sample spaces;
coefficient matrix C = [ Z ] ％ ，I ％ ，P ％ ] T And C is estimated by adopting a least square method, and the method comprises the following steps:
C＝(X T X) -1 X T Y
wherein T represents transpose;
from the latest valid sample space, the voltage response factor γ is expressed as:
γ＝0.0199Z ％ +0.01I ％ 。
the calculation module is specifically configured to:
sensitivity S of k-th gear adjustment of on-load regulating transformer U_k Expressed as:
s U_k ＝|U 1_k -U 0_k |/U 0_k
wherein, U 1_k The voltage of the low-voltage bus is adjusted for the k-th gear of the on-load regulating transformer; u shape 0_k Adjusting the voltage of a front low-voltage bus for the k-th gear of the on-load regulating transformer;
voltage regulation sensitivity s of on-load regulating transformer with gear regulation capability Uil Expressed as:
wherein, N s_il For satisfying the operation scene S (SP) in the historical data i 、SQ l ) Number of Samples of (SP) i For the ith active power interval, SQ l Is the first reactive power interval, P k And Q k Respectively the active power and the reactive power when the k-th gear of the on-load regulating transformer is regulated.
The judgment module is specifically configured to:
if any one of the following modes occurs, the on-load regulating transformer is not provided with gear regulating capacity:
1) The on-load regulating transformer has invalid certain operation information;
2) The current gear of the on-load regulating transformer reaches the lowest gear;
3) When the on-load regulating transformer regulates the first gear under the current gear, the voltage of the medium-voltage bus or the low-voltage bus is lower than the lower voltage limit;
4) The daily action times of the on-load regulating transformer reach the daily action time limit value;
5) The voltage response factor is less than or equal to a voltage response factor threshold;
6) For the controllable transformers which run in parallel, when one controllable transformer is not on-load voltage-regulating or locked, other controllable transformers except the controllable transformer do not have the gear regulating capability currently.
The determining module is specifically configured to:
and calculating the adjustment potential of the low-voltage bus load and the adjustment potential of the regional load according to the operation scene, the active power, the reactive power, the low-voltage bus voltage, the gear state, whether the transformer runs in parallel or not, whether the transformer running in parallel with the transformer can be adjusted or not and the number of times of gear actions in the day of the operation of the on-load adjustment transformer.
The determining module is specifically configured to:
according to the voltage regulation sensitivity s of the on-load regulating transformer with gear regulation capability Uil Calculating the change value U of each-gear low-voltage bus voltage of on-load regulating transformer with gear regulating capacity 1s The method comprises the following steps:
U 1s ＝U 0 (1+s Uil )
according to U 1s The active power regulation potential P of the on-load regulation transformer with gear regulation capacity for regulating the load of the low-voltage bus at each gear r_1s_it Expressed as:
P r_1s_it ＝P 0 -f(U 1s )
wherein, f (U) 1s ) The active power of the low-voltage bus load after the first gear is adjusted by the on-load regulating transformer is shown, and
the number of the on-load regulating transformers with gear regulating capacity currently in the transformer substation j is recorded as n trj Thus the regulation potential P of the low-voltage bus load of the substation j r_1s_st_j Expressed as:
recording the number of the transformer substations in the area as n st The adjustment potential of the area load is then expressed as:
wherein, P r_1s_area Is the regulation potential of the regional load.
The time scenes comprise a spring working day and day scene, a spring working day and night scene, a spring non-working day and day scene, a spring non-working day and night scene summer workday daytime scene, summer workday nighttime scene, summer non-workday daytime scene, summer non-workday nighttime scene an autumn workday daytime scene, an autumn workday night scene, an autumn non-workday daytime scene, an autumn non-workday night scene, a winter workday daytime scene, a winter workday night scene, a winter non-workday daytime scene, and a winter non-workday night scene.
Compared with the closest prior art, the technical scheme provided by the invention has the following beneficial effects:
the invention provides a historical data-based voltage response load regulation potential analysis method and a historical data-based voltage response load regulation potential analysis device, which are characterized in that firstly, a voltage response model of a low-voltage bus load is established according to the acquired historical data, and a voltage response factor of the low-voltage bus load and the voltage regulation sensitivity of an on-load regulating transformer in the current time scene are calculated; then judging whether the on-load regulating transformer has gear regulating capacity or not according to the voltage response factor of the low-voltage bus load and the voltage regulating sensitivity of the on-load regulating transformer; finally, the load regulation potential of the on-load regulation transformer with the gear regulation capacity is analyzed, the process is simple and reliable, the operation is easy, and the application range is wide;
according to the method, the load regulation potential of each low-voltage bus is analyzed and calculated based on the historical data of the gear regulation of the on-load regulating transformer and the real-time operation information of the power grid, the power regulation potential of each on-load regulating transformer for regulating the load of the low-voltage bus at one gear can be calculated on line, data support is provided for formulating a reasonable voltage response load control strategy, effective utilization of load side resources is facilitated, and meanwhile the load side resources are promoted to participate in dispatching operation of the power grid in a friendly mode.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for analyzing voltage responsive load regulation potential based on historical data according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.
The invention provides a historical data-based voltage response load regulation potential analysis method, a specific flow chart is shown in figure 1, and the method specifically comprises the following execution processes:
s101: establishing a voltage response model of the low-voltage bus load by adopting a regression analysis method through acquiring historical data, and calculating a voltage response factor of the low-voltage bus load and the voltage regulation sensitivity of the load regulation transformer in the current time scene;
s102: judging whether the on-load regulating transformer has gear regulating capacity or not according to the voltage response factor of the low-voltage bus load calculated in the step S101;
s103: and determining the load regulation potential of the on-load regulating transformer with the gear regulation capability obtained in the step S102 according to the voltage regulation sensitivity of the on-load regulating transformer obtained in the step S101.
In S101, a voltage response model of the low-voltage bus load is established, historical data needs to be acquired before calculating a voltage response factor of the low-voltage bus load and the voltage regulation sensitivity of the load regulation transformer in the current time scene, and the historical data is preprocessed. The acquired historical data comprises N y And (4) within 1-10 years, the voltage and the active power of the low-voltage bus are within a time period of 10-30 minutes before and after the shift action of the on-load regulating transformer.
Firstly, the effectiveness of historical data is processed, bad data which deviates from the average value greatly is removed through a threshold setting method, and an initial effective sample space is obtained. The method comprises the following steps of processing historical data to obtain an initial effective sample space, and specifically comprises the following steps:
the active power P of n (10-30) low-voltage buses before the gear action of each on-load regulating transformer in the mth time scene is obtained t-1 、P t-2 、…、P t-n+1 、P t-n And a sampling time t -1 、t -2 、…、t -n+1 、t -n N sets of data, noted:
{(P t-n ,t -n ),(P t-n+1 ,t -n+1 ),…,(P t-2 ,t -2 ),(P t-1 ,t -1 )}
then, assume that the on-load tap-changer gear is before T 0 Minute (T) 0 Value is 10-30), and linear fitting is carried out on the data before the gear action of the n groups of on-load regulating transformers to obtain the following characteristic equation of the change of the bus load along with time before the gear regulation action of the on-load regulating transformers:
P 0 ＝k 0 t 0 +P b0
wherein, P 0 For active power, t, of low-voltage bus before gear action of on-load regulating transformer 0 For regulating the gear-shift time, k, of the transformer under load 0 、P b0 All parameters are parameters of a characteristic equation of bus load changing along with time before the gear adjustment action of the on-load adjustment transformer;
then, obtaining active power P 'of n low-voltage buses after the shift of the on-load regulating transformer is operated every time in the mth time scene' t-1 、P′ t-2 、…、P′ t-n+1 、P′ t-n And a sampling time t' -1 、t′ -2 、…、t′ -n+1 、t′ -n N sets of data, noted:
{(P′ t-n ,t′ -n ),(P′ t-n+1 ,t′ -n+1 ),…,(P′ t-2 ,t′ -2 ),(P′ t-1 ,t′ -1 )}
next, assume that T is after the on-load tap-changer shift is actuated 0 And in the minute, the low-voltage bus load is in a linear change process, and linear fitting is carried out on the data of the n groups of on-load regulating transformers after the gear adjustment action, so as to obtain the following characteristic equation of the bus load changing along with the time after the gear adjustment action of the on-load regulating transformers:
P 1 ＝k 1 t 0 +P b1
wherein, P 1 For active power, t, of low-voltage bus after shift action of on-load regulating transformer 0 For the gear action time, k, of the on-load regulating transformer 1 、P b1 Are all on-load regulating transformersParameters of a characteristic equation of the bus load changing along with time after the gear adjusting action;
and finally, determining the pre-action T of the gear of the on-load regulating transformer 0 Within minute and after shift action T 0 The voltage of the low-voltage bus is kept stable in minutes, and the average value of the voltage of each n low-voltage buses before and after the shift action of the on-load regulating transformer is taken as the voltage U of the low-voltage bus before the shift action of the on-load regulating transformer 0 And the low-voltage bus voltage U after the action 1 Respectively expressed as:
wherein i is the index of the low voltage bus, i =1,2, \ 8230;, n; u shape 0i The voltage of the ith low-voltage bus before the gear action of the on-load regulating transformer is obtained; u shape 1i The voltage of the ith low-voltage bus after the shift of the on-load regulating transformer acts is measured;
an initial effective sample space is then obtained for the mth temporal scenario:
{(U 01 ,P 01 ,U 11 ,P 11 )；(U 02 ,P 02 ,U 12 ,P 12 )；…；(U 0z ,P 0z ,U 1z ,P 1z )} m
wherein z is the total number of on-load regulating transformer gear regulation times, k is the index of the number of on-load regulating transformer gear regulation times, and k =1,2, \8230; u shape 0z 、P 0z Respectively represents the voltage and the active power of a low-voltage bus before the z-th gear adjustment of the on-load regulating transformer, U 1z 、P 1z And respectively representing the voltage and the active power of the low-voltage bus after the z-th gear adjustment of the on-load regulating transformer.
In S101, the specific process of establishing the voltage response model of the low-voltage bus load by using the regression analysis method is as follows:
a regression analysis method is adopted to establish a voltage response model of the following low-voltage bus load:
the voltage response model of the low-voltage bus load adopts a ZIP model, wherein P is the active power of the low-voltage bus load, and Z is ％ 、I ％ 、P ％ The constant impedance, the constant current and the constant power part respectively account for the proportion in the low-voltage bus load and satisfy Z ％ +I ％ +P ％ ＝1；
And then, when calculating the bus load voltage response model parameters in the current time scene, converting the multiple nonlinear regression into a multiple linear regression problem, and solving by adopting a least square method. Is provided with
x 3 ＝P 0 ，y＝P，x 1 、x 2 、x 3 And y is an intermediate quantity, the multiple nonlinear regression is converted into the multiple linear regression, and a voltage response model of the low-voltage bus load is expressed as follows by adopting a least square method:
y＝x 1 ·Z ％ +x 2 ·I ％ +x 3 ·P ％
obtaining the following new effective sample space according to the initial effective sample space:
wherein X and Y are new effective sample spaces;
finally, the coefficient matrix C = [ Z ] is recorded ％ ，I ％ ，P ％ ] T And C is estimated by adopting a least square method, comprising the following steps:
C＝(X T X) -1 X T Y
where T denotes transposition.
Since the time scenes include a spring working day time scene, a spring working day night scene, a spring non-working day time scene, a spring non-working day night scene, a summer working day time scene, a summer working day night scene, a summer non-working day time scene, a summer non-working day night scene, a fall working day time scene, a fall working day night scene, a fall non-working day time scene, a fall non-working day night scene, a winter working day time scene, a winter working day night scene, a winter non-working day time scene, and a winter non-working day night scene, the present invention, when performing regression analysis, will obtain the bus load voltage response model parameters under 16 time scenes via regression analysis: a spring working day-night parameter, a spring non-working day-night parameter, a summer working day-day parameter, a summer working day-night parameter, a summer non-working day-day parameter, a summer non-working day-night parameter, an autumn working day-day parameter, an autumn working day-night parameter, an autumn non-working day-day parameter, an autumn non-working day-night parameter, a winter working day-day parameter, a winter working day-night parameter, a winter non-working day-day parameter, a winter non-working day-night parameter.
In S101, a voltage response factor of the low-voltage bus load in the current time scenario (i.e., a ratio that the active power of the load can be reduced when the voltage is reduced by 1%) is calculated as follows:
the voltage response factor γ is expressed as:
γ＝Z ％ (1-0.99 2 )+I ％ (1-0.99)＝0.0199Z ％ +0.01I ％ 。
the calculation of the voltage response model parameters of the low-voltage bus load and the calculation of the voltage response factors can be executed in a fixed period, the period can be set to be 1-30 days, and the calculation can also be executed through manual instructions.
The specific process for calculating the voltage regulation sensitivity of the on-load regulating transformer in the step S101 is as follows:
the voltage regulation sensitivity is changed by the current load regulation except the impedance parameter of the transformerThe influence of active power P and reactive power Q of the transformer, therefore, the invention classifies the transformer gear adjusting scenes according to the two factors, and P is set max Setting the active power of the low-voltage bus load to be [0 max ]Within range divided into n P The active power interval is represented by i, i =1,2, \8230;, n p (ii) a Then the ith active power interval SP i The active power P of the internal low-voltage bus load meets the following requirements:
(i-1)P max /n P ≤P＜i×P max /n P
at the same time, set Q max The upper limit of reactive power of the low-voltage bus load is defined as aP max (constant a usually takes 20% -30%); the reactive power of the low-voltage bus load is set to be 0 max ]Within range divided into n Q A reactive power interval, i denotes the index of the reactive power interval, l =1,2, \8230;, n Q (ii) a So the first reactive power interval SQ l The reactive power Q of the internal low-voltage bus load meets the following requirements:
(l-1)Q max /n Q ≤Q＜l×Q max /n Q
the sensitivity of the k-th gear adjustment of the on-load regulating transformer is expressed as follows:
s U_k ＝|U 1_k -U 0_k |/U 0_k
wherein S is U_k For the k-th gear adjustment sensitivity, U, of the on-load regulating transformer 1_k The voltage of the low-voltage bus is adjusted for the k-th gear of the on-load regulating transformer; u shape 0_k Adjusting the voltage of a front low-voltage bus for the k-th gear of the on-load regulating transformer;
determining a running scenario S (SP) i 、SQ l ) The voltage regulation sensitivity of the on-load regulating transformer with the gear regulation capacity comprises the following components:
wherein s is Uil For having gear shiftingVoltage regulation sensitivity of a capacity-saving on-load regulating transformer; n is a radical of s_il For satisfying the operation scene S (SP) in the historical data i 、SQ l ) Number of samples of (1), P k And Q k Respectively the active power and the reactive power when the k-th gear of the on-load regulating transformer is regulated.
In S102, the specific process of judging whether the on-load regulating transformer has the gear regulating capacity according to the voltage response factor of the low-voltage bus load is as follows:
judging whether the on-load regulating transformer has gear regulating capacity according to any one of the following modes:
1) Judging whether the operation information of the on-load regulating transformer is valid or not, and when certain operation information is invalid, indicating that the on-load regulating transformer does not have the gear regulating capability currently;
2) Judging whether the current gear of the on-load regulating transformer reaches the lowest gear or not, if so, indicating that the on-load regulating transformer does not have the gear regulating capability currently;
3) Judging whether the voltage of a medium-voltage bus or the voltage of a low-voltage bus is lower than the lower limit of the voltage when the on-load regulating transformer regulates the first gear at the current gear, if so, indicating that the on-load regulating transformer does not have the gear regulating capability at present;
4) When the daily action times of the on-load regulating transformer reach the daily action time limit value, the on-load regulating transformer is indicated to have no gear regulating capability currently;
5) Let the voltage response factor threshold be gamma set If not, taking the case that gamma is more than gamma set If so, indicating that the on-load regulating transformer does not have the gear regulating capability;
6) For the controllable transformers which run in parallel, when one controllable transformer is not on-load voltage-regulating or locked, other controllable transformers except the controllable transformer do not have gear regulating capability currently.
In S103, determining the load regulation potential of the on-load regulation transformer with the gear regulation capability according to the voltage regulation sensitivity of the on-load regulation transformer specifically includes:
the operation information of the on-load regulating transformer comprises an operation scene, active power, reactive power, low-voltage bus voltage, a gear state, whether the on-load regulating transformer operates in parallel, whether the transformer operating in parallel with the on-load regulating transformer is adjustable and the number of times of gear actions in the day, the regulation potential of the low-voltage bus load and the regulation potential of the regional load are calculated according to the operation information of the on-load regulating transformer, and the specific process is as follows:
firstly, the sensitivity s is adjusted according to the voltage of the on-load regulating transformer with the gear adjusting capability Uil Calculating the change value U of each-gear low-voltage bus voltage of on-load regulating transformer with gear regulating capacity 1s The method comprises the following steps:
U 1s ＝U 0 (1+s Uil )
then according to U 1s The active power regulation potential P of each regulation of one-gear low-voltage bus load of on-load regulation transformer it gears with gear regulation capacity r_1s_it Expressed as:
P r_1s_it ＝P 0 -f(U 1s )
wherein, f (U) 1s ) The active power of the low-voltage bus load after the first gear is adjusted by the on-load regulating transformer is shown, and
the number of the current on-load regulating transformers with gear regulating capacity in the transformer substation j is recorded as n trj Thus the regulation potential P of the low-voltage bus load of the substation j r_1s_st_j Expressed as:
recording the number of the transformer substations in the region as n st The adjustment potential of the zone load is then expressed as:
wherein, P r_1s_area Is regionally negativeThe regulatory potential of the load.
The present embodiment also provides a voltage response load adjustment potential analysis device based on historical data, where the device includes:
the calculation module is used for establishing a voltage response model of the low-voltage bus load by adopting a regression analysis method through acquiring historical data, and calculating a voltage response factor of the low-voltage bus load and the voltage regulation sensitivity of the on-load regulating transformer in the current time scene;
the judging module is used for judging whether the on-load regulating transformer has gear regulating capacity or not according to the voltage response factor of the low-voltage bus load;
and the determining module is used for determining the load regulation potential of the on-load regulating transformer with the gear regulation capacity according to the voltage regulation sensitivity of the on-load regulating transformer.
The above history data includes N y And the voltage and active power of the low-voltage bus are in a time period of 10-30 minutes before and after the gear action of the on-load regulating transformer in the year.
The specific process of the preprocessing module for preprocessing the historical data is as follows:
the active power P of n low-voltage buses before the gear action of each on-load regulating transformer in the mth time scene is firstly obtained t-1 、P t-2 、…、P t-n+1 、P t-n And a sampling time t -1 、t -2 、…、t -n+1 、t -n N sets of data, noted:
{(P t-n ,t -n ),(P t-n+1 ,t -n+1 ),…,(P t-2 ,t -2 ),(P t-1 ,t -1 )}
then, assume that the on-load regulating transformer is shifted for T before actuation 0 And in the minute, the low-voltage bus load is in a linear change process, and the data before the gear position action of the n groups of on-load regulating transformers is subjected to linear fitting to obtain the following characteristic equation of the bus load changing along with time before the gear position regulation action of the on-load regulating transformers:
P 0 ＝k 0 t 0 +P b0
wherein, P 0 For active power, t, of low-voltage bus before gear action of on-load regulating transformer 0 For regulating the gear-shift time, k, of the transformer under load 0 、P b0 The parameters are the parameters of a characteristic equation of bus load changing along with time before the gear adjustment action of the on-load regulating transformer;
then, obtaining active power P 'of n low-voltage buses after the shift of the on-load regulating transformer is operated each time in the m-th time scene' t-1 、P′ t-2 、…、P′ t-n+1 、P′ t-n And sampling time t' -1 、t′ -2 、…、t′ -n+1 、t′ -n N sets of data, noted:
{(P′ t-n ,t′ -n ),(P′ t-n+1 ,t′ -n+1 ),…,(P′ t-2 ,t′ -2 ),(P′ t-1 ,t′ -1 )}
then, suppose that the on-load regulating transformer is operated T after the gear action 0 And in the minute, the low-voltage bus load is in a linear change process, and linear fitting is carried out on the data of the n groups of on-load regulating transformers after the gear adjustment action, so as to obtain the following characteristic equation of the bus load changing along with the time after the gear adjustment action of the on-load regulating transformers:
P 1 ＝k 1 t 0 +P b1
wherein, P 1 For active power, t, of low-voltage bus after shift action of on-load regulating transformer 0 For regulating the gear-shift time, k, of the transformer under load 1 、P b1 All parameters are parameters of a characteristic equation of bus load changing along with time after the shift of the on-load regulating transformer is regulated;
furthermore, the step position of the on-load regulating transformer is determined to be T before action 0 Within minute and after shift action T 0 The voltage of the low-voltage bus is kept stable in minutes, and the average value of the voltage of each n low-voltage buses before and after the shift action of the on-load regulating transformer is taken as the voltage U of the low-voltage bus before the shift action of the on-load regulating transformer 0 And the low-voltage bus voltage U after the action 1 Respectively expressed as:
wherein i is the index of the low voltage bus, i =1,2, \ 8230;, n; u shape 0i The voltage of the ith low-voltage bus before the shift action of the on-load regulating transformer is obtained; u shape 1i The voltage of the ith low-voltage bus after the shift of the on-load regulating transformer acts is measured;
finally, the initial effective sample space under the mth time scene is obtained:
{(U 01 ,P 01 ,U 11 ,P 11 )；(U 02 ,P 02 ,U 12 ,P 12 )；…；(U 0z ,P 0z ,U 1z ,P 1z )} m
wherein z is the total number of on-load regulating transformer gear regulation times, k is the index of the number of on-load regulating transformer gear regulation times, and k =1,2, \8230; u shape 0z 、P 0z Respectively represents the voltage and the active power of a low-voltage bus before the z-th gear adjustment of the on-load regulating transformer, U 1z 、P 1z And respectively representing the voltage and the active power of the low-voltage bus after the z-th gear adjustment of the on-load regulating transformer.
The calculation module is used for establishing a voltage response model of the low-voltage bus load by adopting a regression analysis method according to the preprocessed historical data; and the method is also used for calculating the voltage response factor of the low-voltage bus load in the current time scene.
The specific process of establishing the voltage response model of the low-voltage bus load by the calculation module by adopting a regression analysis method according to the preprocessed historical data is as follows:
firstly, a regression analysis method is adopted to establish a voltage response model of the low-voltage bus load as follows:
where P is the active power of the low voltage bus load, Z ％ 、I ％ 、P ％ Respectively constant impedance and constant currentAnd the proportion of the constant power part in the low-voltage bus load, and meets Z ％ +I ％ +P ％ ＝1；
Then, set up
x 3 ＝P 0 ，y＝P，x 1 、x 2 、x 3 Y is an intermediate quantity, the multiple nonlinear regression is converted into the multiple linear regression, and a voltage response model of the low-voltage bus load is expressed as follows by adopting a least square method:
y＝x 1 ·Z ％ +x 2 ·I ％ +x 3 ·P ％
finally, the following new effective sample space is obtained according to the effective sample space:
wherein X and Y are new effective sample spaces;
coefficient matrix C = [ Z ] ％ ，I ％ ，P ％ ] T And C is estimated by adopting a least square method, comprising the following steps:
C＝(X T X) -1 X T Y
where T denotes transposition.
The process of calculating the voltage response factor by the calculating module comprises the following steps:
let the voltage response factor be γ, which is expressed as:
γ＝Z ％ (1-0.99 2 )+I ％ (1-0.99)＝0.0199Z ％ +0.01I ％ 。
the process of the calculating module specifically used for calculating the voltage regulation sensitivity is as follows:
let P max For low-voltage bus-barThe upper limit of the active power of the load is to make the active power of the low-voltage bus load be [0 max ]Within range divided into n P An active power interval, i is used to indicate the index of the active power interval, i =1,2, \8230;, n p (ii) a Then the ith active power interval SP i The active power P of the internal low-voltage bus load meets the following requirements:
(i-1)P max /n P ≤P＜i×P max /n P
at the same time, set Q max Setting the reactive power of the low-voltage bus load at 0 max ]Within range divided into n Q A reactive power interval, i denotes the index of the reactive power interval, l =1,2, \8230;, n Q (ii) a Then the first reactive power interval SQ l The reactive power Q of the internal low-voltage bus load meets the following requirements:
(l-1)Q max /n Q ≤Q＜l×Q max /n Q
then, calculating the sensitivity of the k-th gear adjustment of the on-load regulating transformer, including:
s U_k ＝|U 1_k -U 0_k |/U 0_k
wherein S is U_k For the k-th gear adjustment sensitivity, U, of the on-load regulating transformer 1_k The voltage of the low-voltage bus is adjusted for the k-th gear of the on-load regulating transformer; u shape 0_k Adjusting the voltage of the low-voltage bus before the k-th gear of the on-load regulating transformer;
finally, the operation scene S (SP) is obtained i 、SQ l ) The voltage regulation sensitivity of the on-load regulating transformer with the gear regulation capacity comprises the following components:
wherein s is Uil The voltage regulation sensitivity of the on-load regulating transformer with the gear regulation capacity is obtained; n is a radical of s_il For satisfying the operation scene S (SP) in the historical data i 、SQ l ) Number of samples of (1), P k And Q k Are respectively on-load regulating transformersActive power and reactive power of the transformer at the k-th gear adjustment.
The specific process of the judging module for judging the on-load regulating transformer with the gear regulating capability is as follows:
firstly, acquiring operation information of an on-load regulating transformer, and acquiring a voltage response factor of a low-voltage bus load and voltage regulating sensitivity of the on-load regulating transformer according to the operation information; the operation information comprises a time scene, a current gear, a lowest gear, a gear voltage variable quantity and the number of actions on the day of the on-load regulating transformer, active power, reactive power and voltage amplitude of the low-voltage bus load and the voltage of the low-voltage bus;
then, whether the on-load regulating transformer has gear regulating capacity is judged according to the following modes:
1) Judging whether the operation information of the on-load regulating transformer is valid or not, and when certain operation information is invalid, indicating that the on-load regulating transformer does not have the gear regulating capability currently;
2) Judging whether the current gear of the on-load regulating transformer reaches the lowest gear or not, if so, indicating that the on-load regulating transformer does not have the gear regulating capability currently;
3) Judging whether the voltage of a medium-voltage bus or the voltage of a low-voltage bus is lower than the lower limit of the voltage when the on-load regulating transformer regulates the first gear at the current gear, if so, indicating that the on-load regulating transformer does not have the gear regulating capability at present;
4) When the daily action times of the on-load regulating transformer reach the daily action time limit value, the on-load regulating transformer is indicated to have no gear regulating capability currently;
5) Let the voltage response factor threshold be gamma set If not, taking the case that gamma is more than gamma set If so, the on-load regulating transformer does not have the gear regulating capacity;
6) For the controllable transformers which run in parallel, when one controllable transformer is not on-load voltage-regulating or locked, other controllable transformers except the controllable transformer do not have gear regulating capability currently.
In addition, for the on-load regulating transformers which run in parallel, if one on-load regulating transformer is not on-load voltage regulating or locked, it is indicated that other on-load regulating transformers except the on-load regulating transformer do not have gear regulating capability currently.
The process of analyzing the adjustment potential of the low-voltage bus load and the adjustment potential of the regional load by the determination module according to the operation information of the on-load regulating transformer (including the operation scene, the active power, the reactive power, the low-voltage bus voltage, the gear state, whether the on-load regulating transformer operates in parallel, whether the transformer operating in parallel with the on-load regulating transformer is adjustable, and the number of gear actions in the day) is as follows:
firstly, the sensitivity s is adjusted according to the voltage of the on-load regulating transformer with the gear adjusting capability Uil Calculating the change value U of each-gear low-voltage bus voltage of on-load regulating transformer with gear regulating capacity 1s The method comprises the following steps:
U 1s ＝U 0 (1+s Uil )
then according to U 1s The active power regulation potential P of the on-load regulation transformer with gear regulation capacity for regulating the load of the low-voltage bus at each gear r_1s_it Expressed as:
P r_1s_it ＝P 0 -f(U 1s )
wherein, f (U) 1s ) The active power of the low-voltage bus load after the first gear is adjusted by the on-load regulating transformer is shown, and
then, the number of the on-load regulating transformers with gear regulating capacity currently in the transformer substation j is recorded as n trj Thus the regulation potential P of the low-voltage bus load of the substation j r_1s_st_j Expressed as:
finally, the number of the transformer substations in the region is recorded as n st Then adjustment of the zone loadThe force is expressed as:
wherein, P r_1s_area Is the regulation potential of the regional load.
Firstly, establishing a voltage response model of a low-voltage bus load according to acquired historical data, and calculating a voltage response factor of the low-voltage bus load and the voltage regulation sensitivity of a load regulation transformer in a current time scene; then judging whether the on-load regulating transformer has gear regulating capacity or not according to the voltage response factor of the low-voltage bus load and the voltage regulating sensitivity of the on-load regulating transformer; and finally, carrying out load regulation potential analysis on the on-load regulating transformer with the gear regulation capacity, providing data support for formulating a reasonable voltage response load control strategy, and being beneficial to effective utilization of load side resources.
As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present application may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present application may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present application may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present application is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the application. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
Claims (12)
1. A method for voltage responsive load regulation potential analysis based on historical data, the method comprising:
establishing a voltage response model of the low-voltage bus load by acquiring historical data and adopting a regression analysis method, and calculating a voltage response factor of the low-voltage bus load and the voltage regulation sensitivity of the on-load regulating transformer in the current time scene;
judging whether the on-load regulating transformer has gear regulating capacity or not according to the voltage response factor of the low-voltage bus load;
determining the load regulation potential of the on-load regulating transformer with gear regulation capacity according to the voltage regulation sensitivity of the on-load regulating transformer;
the method comprises the following steps of obtaining historical data, establishing a voltage response model of the low-voltage bus load of the on-load regulating transformer by adopting a regression analysis method, and calculating a voltage response factor of the low-voltage bus load and the voltage regulation sensitivity of the on-load regulating transformer under the current time scene:
obtaining historical data, and obtaining an initial effective sample space according to the historical data;
the historical data comprises N y The voltage and active power of a low-voltage bus within a time period of 10-30 minutes before and after the gear action of the on-load regulating transformer in the year;
the obtaining the effective sample space according to the historical data comprises:
an initial effective sample space under the mth time scenario is obtained as follows:
{(U 01 ,P 01 ,U 11 ,P 11 )；(U 02 ,P 02 ,U 12 ,P 12 )；…；(U 0z ,P 0z ,U 1z ,P 1z )} m
wherein z is the total number of on-load regulating transformer gear regulation times, k is the index of on-load regulating transformer gear regulation times, k =1,2, \8230; u shape 0z 、P 0z Respectively represents the voltage and the active power of a low-voltage bus before the z-th gear adjustment of the on-load regulating transformer, U 1z 、P 1z Respectively representing the voltage and active power of a low-voltage bus after the z-th gear adjustment of the on-load regulating transformer;
the establishing of the voltage response model of the load of the low-voltage bus of the on-load regulating transformer by adopting a regression analysis method comprises the following steps:
the voltage response model of the load of the low-voltage bus of the on-load regulating transformer is expressed as follows:
where P is the active power of the low voltage bus load, Z ％ 、I ％ 、P ％ The constant impedance, the constant current and the constant power part respectively account for the proportion in the low-voltage bus load and satisfy Z ％ +I ％ +P ％ ＝1；U 0 The voltage of a low-voltage bus before the gear action of the on-load regulating transformer; u shape 1 The voltage of the low-voltage bus after the gear action of the on-load regulating transformer is performed; p 0 The active power of the low-voltage bus before the gear action of the on-load regulating transformer;
the step of calculating the voltage response factor of the low-voltage bus load in the current time scene comprises the following steps:
according to the effective sample space and the voltage response model, the following latest effective sample space is obtained:
wherein X and Y are new effective sample spaces;
coefficient matrix C = [ Z ] ％ ，I ％ ，P ％ ] T And C is estimated by adopting a least square method, and the method comprises the following steps:
C＝(X T X) -1 X T Y
wherein T represents transpose;
from the latest valid sample space, the voltage response factor γ is expressed as:
γ＝Z ％ (1-0.99 2 )+I ％ (1-0.99)＝0.0199Z ％ +0.01I ％ 。
2. the historical data-based voltage responsive load regulation potential analysis method of claim 1, wherein calculating the voltage regulation sensitivity of the load regulation transformer comprises:
sensitivity S of k-th gear adjustment of on-load regulating transformer U_k Expressed as:
S U_k ＝|U 1_k -U 0_k |/U 0_k
wherein, U 1_k The voltage of the low-voltage bus is adjusted for the k-th gear of the on-load regulating transformer; u shape 0_k Adjusting the voltage of a front low-voltage bus for the k-th gear of the on-load regulating transformer;
voltage regulation sensitivity of on-load regulating transformer with gear regulation capacityDegree s Uil Expressed as:
wherein N is s_il For satisfying the operation scene S (SP) in the historical data i 、SQ l ) Number of samples of, SP i For the ith active power interval, SQ l Is the first reactive power interval, P k And Q k Respectively the active power and the reactive power when the k-th gear of the on-load regulating transformer is regulated.
3. The voltage response load regulation potential analysis method based on historical data of claim 2, wherein the step of judging whether the load regulation transformer has the gear regulation capacity according to the voltage response factor of the low-voltage bus load comprises the following steps:
if any one of the following modes occurs, the on-load regulating transformer is not provided with gear regulating capacity:
1) Certain running information of the on-load regulating transformer is invalid;
2) The current gear of the on-load regulating transformer reaches the lowest gear;
3) When the on-load regulating transformer regulates the first gear under the current gear, the voltage of the medium-voltage bus or the low-voltage bus is lower than the lower voltage limit;
4) The daily action times of the on-load regulating transformer reach the daily action time limit value;
5) The voltage response factor is less than or equal to the voltage response factor threshold;
6) For the controllable transformers which run in parallel, when one controllable transformer is not on-load voltage-regulating or locked, other controllable transformers except the controllable transformer do not have gear regulating capability currently.
4. The voltage response load regulation potential analysis method based on historical data according to claim 3, wherein the determining the load regulation potential of the on-load regulation transformer with the gear regulation capability according to the voltage regulation sensitivity of the on-load regulation transformer comprises:
and calculating the adjustment potential of the low-voltage bus load and the adjustment potential of the regional load according to the operation scene, the active power, the reactive power, the voltage of the low-voltage bus, the gear state, whether the transformer operates in parallel or not, whether the transformer operating in parallel with the transformer is adjustable or not and the number of gear actions in the day of the transformer.
5. The voltage response load regulation potential analysis method based on historical data of claim 4, wherein the calculating the regulation potential of the low-voltage bus load and the regulation potential of the regional load according to the on-load regulation transformer operation information comprises:
according to the voltage regulation sensitivity s of the on-load regulating transformer with gear regulation capability Uil Calculating the change value U of each-gear low-voltage bus voltage adjustment of the on-load regulating transformer gear with gear regulation capacity 1s The method comprises the following steps:
U 1s ＝U 0 (1+s Uil )
according to U 1s The active power regulation potential P of each regulation of one-gear low-voltage bus load of on-load regulation transformer it gears with gear regulation capacity r_1s_it Expressed as:
P r_1s_it ＝P 0 -f(U 1s )
wherein, f (U) 1s ) The active power of the low-voltage bus load after the first gear is adjusted by the on-load regulating transformer is shown, and
the number of the current on-load regulating transformers with gear regulating capacity in the transformer substation j is recorded as n trj Thus the regulation potential P of the low-voltage bus load of the substation j r_1s_st_j Expressed as:
recording the number of the transformer substations in the region as n st The adjustment potential of the area load is then expressed as:
wherein, P r_1s_area Is the regulation potential of the regional load.
6. The voltage responsive load regulation potential analysis method based on historical data of claim 1, the time scenes include a spring working day time scene, a spring working day night scene, a spring non-working day time scene, a spring non-working day night scene, a summer working day time scene, a summer working day night scene, a summer non-working day time scene, a summer non-working day night scene, a fall working day time scene, a fall working day night scene, a fall non-working day time scene, a fall non-working day night scene, a winter working day time scene, a winter working day night scene, a winter non-working day time scene, and a winter non-working day night scene.
7. An apparatus for analyzing voltage responsive load regulation potential based on historical data, the apparatus comprising:
the calculation module is used for establishing a voltage response model of the low-voltage bus load by acquiring historical data and adopting a regression analysis method, and calculating a voltage response factor of the low-voltage bus load and the voltage regulation sensitivity of the on-load regulating transformer in the current time scene;
the judging module is used for judging whether the on-load regulating transformer has gear regulating capacity or not according to the voltage response factor of the low-voltage bus load;
the determining module is used for determining the load regulation potential of the on-load regulating transformer with the gear regulation capacity according to the voltage regulation sensitivity of the on-load regulating transformer;
the device also comprises an acquisition module, a storage module and a processing module, wherein the acquisition module is used for acquiring historical data and obtaining an initial effective sample space according to the historical data;
the historical data comprises N y The voltage and active power of a low-voltage bus within a time period of 10-30 minutes before and after the gear action of the on-load regulating transformer in the year;
the calculation module is specifically configured to:
obtaining an initial effective sample space in an mth time scenario as follows:
{(U 01 ,P 01 ,U 11 ,P 11 )；(U 02 ,P 02 ,U 12 ,P 12 )；…；(U 0z ,P 0z ,U 1z ,P 1z )} m
wherein z is the total number of on-load regulating transformer gear regulation times, k is the index of on-load regulating transformer gear regulation times, k =1,2, \8230; u shape 0z 、P 0z Respectively represents the voltage and the active power of a low-voltage bus before the z-th gear adjustment of the on-load regulating transformer, U 1z 、P 1z Respectively representing the voltage and active power of a low-voltage bus after the z-th gear adjustment of the on-load regulating transformer;
the calculation module is specifically configured to:
the voltage response model of the low voltage bus load is expressed as:
where P is the active power of the low voltage bus load, Z ％ 、I ％ 、P ％ Respectively the proportion of constant impedance, constant current and constant power in the low-voltage bus load, and meets the requirement of Z ％ +I ％ +P ％ ＝1；U 0 The voltage of a low-voltage bus before the gear action of the on-load regulating transformer; u shape 1 The voltage of the low-voltage bus after the gear action of the on-load regulating transformer; p is 0 The active power of the low-voltage bus before the gear action of the on-load regulating transformer is performed;
the calculation module is specifically configured to:
according to the effective sample space and the voltage response model, the following latest effective sample space is obtained:
wherein X and Y are new effective sample spaces;
coefficient matrix C = [ Z ] ％ ，I ％ ，P ％ ] T And C is estimated by adopting a least square method, and the method comprises the following steps:
C＝(X T X) -1 X T Y
wherein T represents transpose;
from the latest valid sample space, the voltage response factor γ is expressed as:
γ＝0.0199Z ％ +0.01I ％ 。
8. the voltage responsive load regulation potential analysis device based on historical data of claim 7, wherein the calculation module is specifically configured to:
sensitivity S of k-th gear adjustment of on-load regulating transformer U_k Expressed as:
S U_k ＝|U 1_k -U 0_k |/U 0_k
wherein, U 1_k The voltage of the low-voltage bus is adjusted for the kth gear of the on-load regulating transformer; u shape 0_k Adjusting the voltage of the low-voltage bus before the k-th gear of the on-load regulating transformer;
voltage regulation sensitivity s of on-load regulation transformer with gear regulation capability Uil Expressed as:
wherein N is s_il For satisfying the operation scene S (SP) in the historical data i 、SQ l ) Number of samples of, SP i For the ith active power interval, SQ l Is the first reactive power interval, P k And Q k Respectively the active power and the reactive power when the k-th gear of the on-load regulating transformer is regulated.
9. The voltage response load regulation potential analysis device based on historical data of claim 8, wherein the judgment module is specifically configured to:
if any one of the following modes occurs, the on-load regulating transformer is indicated to have no gear regulating capacity:
1) Certain running information of the on-load regulating transformer is invalid;
2) The current gear of the on-load regulating transformer reaches the lowest gear;
3) When the on-load regulating transformer regulates the first gear under the current gear, the voltage of the medium-voltage bus or the low-voltage bus is lower than the lower limit of the voltage;
4) The daily action times of the on-load regulating transformer reach the daily action time limit value;
5) The voltage response factor is less than or equal to a voltage response factor threshold;
6) For the controllable transformers which run in parallel, when one controllable transformer is not on-load voltage-regulating or locked, other controllable transformers except the controllable transformer do not have the gear regulating capability currently.
10. The voltage responsive load regulation potential analysis device based on historical data of claim 9, wherein the determination module is specifically configured to:
and calculating the adjustment potential of the low-voltage bus load and the adjustment potential of the regional load according to the operation scene, the active power, the reactive power, the voltage of the low-voltage bus, the gear state, whether the transformer operates in parallel or not, whether the transformer operating in parallel with the transformer is adjustable or not and the number of gear actions in the day of the transformer.
11. The voltage responsive load regulation potential analysis device based on historical data of claim 10, wherein the determination module is specifically configured to:
according to the voltage regulation sensitivity s of the on-load regulating transformer with gear regulation capability Uil Calculating the change value U of each-gear low-voltage bus voltage of on-load regulating transformer with gear regulating capacity 1s The method comprises the following steps:
U 1s ＝U 0 (1+s Uil )
according to U 1s The active power regulation potential P of the on-load regulation transformer with gear regulation capacity for regulating the load of the low-voltage bus at each gear r_1s_it Expressed as:
P r_1s_it ＝P 0 -f(U 1s )
wherein, f (U) 1s ) The active power of the low-voltage bus load after the first gear is adjusted by the on-load regulating transformer is represented, and
the number of the current on-load regulating transformers with gear regulating capacity in the transformer substation j is recorded as n trj Thus the regulation potential P of the low-voltage bus load of the substation j r_1s_st_j Expressed as:
recording the number of the transformer substations in the region as n st The adjustment potential of the zone load is then expressed as:
wherein, P r_1s_area Is the regulation potential of the regional load.
12. <xnotran> 11 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . </xnotran>
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| CN101924393A (en) * | 2010-08-11 | 2010-12-22 | 徐文远 | Method and system for estimating load model parameters of electric system on line |
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