CN111708987B - Method for predicting load of multiple parallel transformers of transformer substation - Google Patents
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Abstract
A method for predicting the load of a plurality of parallel transformers of a transformer substation comprises the following steps: step 1, acquiring historical data of the transformer substation in a set time period, wherein the historical data comprises transformer substation load data, load data of each transformer and transformer operation mode data in the set time period; step 2, calculating the operation mode C of the transformer substation by using historical data of the transformer substation j Transformer T during operation i Load distribution factor F at time t t (T i ，C j ) (ii) a Step 3, the load distribution coefficient F obtained in step 2 t (T i ，C j ) Combined with the load L of the substation s (t) use of a non-linear regression function G (L) s (t)，T i ，C j ) Quantized load distribution factor F t (T i ，C j ) Load L with substation s (t) a non-linear mapping relationship; step 4, the nonlinear regression function G (L) obtained in the step 3 s (t)，T i ，C j ) Combined with the load L of the substation s (t) load L of ith transformer at time t i (t) performing a prediction. On the premise of improving the accuracy of the load prediction result of the transformer, the workload of load prediction modeling is greatly reduced, and the precision is realizedAnd the double improvement of the efficiency.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of load prediction of power equipment, in particular to a method for predicting loads of multiple parallel transformers of a transformer substation.
Background
The transformer load is an important factor influencing the health state and the insulation life of equipment, and the realization of accurate transformer load prediction has important significance for optimizing load distribution, equipment state evaluation and fault prediction. In practice, besides conventional factors such as day type, season and weather, the transformer load is influenced by changes of the operation mode of the transformer substation to present a more complex change rule than that of the transformer substation level load, so that the load of the transformer cannot be accurately predicted by the existing power system load prediction technology. On the other hand, the number of transformers in the power grid is large, and heavy workload can be generated when a load prediction model is established for each device independently.
Prior art document 1 (dunnaging et al, a load prediction method [ P ]. CN110009136A, 2019-07-12.) of a distribution transformer and a distribution line discloses a load prediction method of a distribution transformer and a distribution line, which initializes each weight of historical load, meteorological data, a workday type and the like, and performs neuron calculation and prediction based on an Elman neural network algorithm.
The method disclosed in prior art document 1 follows the conventional load prediction method for the power system level to the load of the transformer level. However, in practice, besides conventional factors such as historical load, meteorological data and working day type, the transformer load may also be changed under the influence of special factors such as adjustment of the operation mode of the transformer substation, and a more complex change rule is presented than that of the system-level load, and if only the conventional factors are considered and the influence of the operation mode of the transformer substation on the transformer load is ignored, a large prediction error may be caused. On the other hand, the number of transformers in the power grid is large, and heavy workload can be generated when a load prediction model is established for each transformer independently.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a method for predicting loads of a plurality of parallel transformers of a transformer substation, which realizes the prediction of the loads of the plurality of parallel transformers by defining a load distribution coefficient and quantizing the nonlinear mapping relation between the loads of the parallel transformers and the loads of the transformer substation under different operation modes of the transformer substation by using a nonlinear regression function.
The invention adopts the following technical scheme. Method for predicting load of multiple parallel transformers in transformer substation by T i The method comprises the following steps of representing the ith transformer in N transformers which are in parallel operation in a transformer substation, wherein N and i are positive integers, N is more than or equal to 2, i is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to N; c j The j-th operation mode in K operation modes of the transformer substation is represented, K and j are positive integers, K is more than or equal to 2, j is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to K; t represents the measurement time, and t is a positive integer; l is i (t) represents the load of the ith transformer at time t; l is s (t) represents the load of the substation at time t; the method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1, acquiring historical data of the transformer substation in a set time period, wherein the historical data comprises transformer substation load data, load data of each transformer and transformer substation operation mode data in the set time period;
step 2, calculating the operation mode C of the transformer substation by using historical data of the transformer substation and adopting the following formula (1) j Transformer T during operation i Load distribution factor F at time t t (T i ，C j )
In the formula:
F t (T i ，C j ) Representing a load sharing factor;
T i representing the ith transformer in N transformers which are operated in parallel in the transformer substation;
C j representing the jth operation mode in the K operation modes of the transformer substation;
t represents a measurement time;
L i (t) represents the load of the ith transformer at time t;
L s (t) represents the load of the substation at time t;
step 3, the load distribution coefficient F obtained in step 2 t (T i ，C j ) Combined with the load L of the substation s (t) using a nonlinear regression function G (L) s (t)，T i ，C j ) Quantized load distribution factor F t (T i ，C j ) Load L with substation s (t) a non-linear mapping relationship,
F t (T i ，C j )＝G(L s (t)，T i ，C j )(2)
in the formula:
G(L s (t)，T i ，C j ) Representing the inclusion of independent variables as substation load L s (t) a non-linear regression function;
step 4, the nonlinear regression function G (L) obtained in the step 3 s (t)，T i ，C j ) Combined with the load L of the substation s (t) applying the following formula (3) to the load L of the ith transformer at time t i (t) performing a prediction of the current,
L i (t)＝G(L s (t)，T i ，C j )·L s (t) (3)。
preferably, as the nonlinear regression function G (L), a power function containing a constant term is used as follows s (t)，T i ，C j )
G(L s (t)，T i ，C j )＝aL s (t) b +c (4)
L s (t) represents the load of the substation at time t;
a, b, c represent G (L) s (t)，T i ，C j ) The parameter value of (2).
Preferably, the nonlinear regression function G (L) is estimated using a least squares method s (t)，T i ，C j ) The parameter values a, b, c.
Preferably, the set period of time in step 1 is in the range of 1 year to 3 years.
Preferably, the step 1 of acquiring the operation mode data of the substation refers to the shutdown and operation states of the transformer occurring in the historical operation.
Preferably, at least 4 historical data of historical moments are obtained, namely t is more than or equal to 4, the historical data comprise substation load data, load data of each transformer and substation operation mode data, and the historical data are used for fitting a nonlinear function and predicting.
Compared with the prior art, the method has the advantages that the load distribution coefficients are defined to describe the distribution relation between the parallel transformers and the transformer substation level loads, the nonlinear regression function is used for quantizing the nonlinear mapping relation between the load distribution coefficients and the transformer substation level loads in different operation modes of the transformer substation, and finally the prediction of the loads of the plurality of parallel transformers is realized according to the load distribution coefficients of the transformers by taking the prediction result of the transformer substation load as input.
The load score of each transformer is quantified by using a nonlinear regression function compared with the method of simplifying the load score into a constantCoefficient of distribution F t (T i ，C j ) And the load L of the transformer substation s And (t) the nonlinear mapping relation can accurately and reasonably reflect the real dynamic change characteristics of the load distribution coefficients. According to the method, on the premise of improving the accuracy of the load prediction result of the transformer, the workload of load prediction modeling is greatly reduced, and the dual improvement of the precision and the efficiency is realized.
According to the invention, the nonlinear mapping relation between the transformer substation level load and the loads of the multiple parallel transformers is excavated under different operation modes of the transformer substation, the load prediction results of the multiple parallel transformers are taken as input, the load prediction of the multiple parallel transformers is realized, and the workload of the load prediction is greatly reduced on the premise of improving the load prediction accuracy.
As long as the substation is in a certain state C j The amount of historical data collected at run-time is not less than 4, including 4, i.e. not less than 4 points, and then the nonlinear function can be fitted and predicted. Therefore, the method for predicting the load of the plurality of transformers connected in parallel in the transformer substation has an obvious advantage that the method can be used in the scene of scarce historical load data.
Drawings
FIG. 1 shows the operation mode of the substation as C 1 Time, transformer T 1 Load distribution coefficient of (F) t (T i ，C j ) And the load L of the transformer substation s (t) a map scatter plot;
FIG. 2 shows the operation of the substation as C 4 Time, transformer T 1 Load distribution coefficient of (F) t (T i ，C j ) And the load L of the transformer substation s (t) a map scatter plot;
FIG. 3 shows a transformer T 1 A load prediction result map of (1);
fig. 4 is a flow chart of a method for predicting the load of a plurality of parallel transformers in a transformer substation.
Detailed Description
The present application is further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. The following examples are only for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention more clearly, and the protection scope of the present application is not limited thereby.
The invention provides a method for predicting load of a plurality of parallel transformers of a transformer substation, wherein the transformer substation S comprises N transformers which are operated in parallel and are connected in parallel by T i The method comprises the steps of representing the ith transformer in N transformers which run in parallel in a transformer substation, namely the number of the transformers, wherein N and i are positive integers, N is more than or equal to 2, and i is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to N; with C j The j-th operation mode in K operation modes of the transformer substation is represented, K and j are positive integers, K is more than or equal to 2, j is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to K; t represents the measurement time, t is a positive integer, and if the time span for acquiring the historical data is n days, t is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to 24n; l is a radical of an alcohol i (t) represents the load of the ith transformer at time t; l is s And (t) represents the load of the substation at the time t.
As shown in fig. 4, the method for predicting the load of a plurality of parallel transformers in a transformer substation comprises the following steps:
step 1, acquiring historical data of the transformer substation in a set time period, wherein the historical data comprises transformer substation load data, load data of each transformer and transformer operation mode data in the set time period. Preferably, but not limitatively, the set period of time ranges from 1 year to 3 years. The acquisition of the operation mode data of the transformer substation refers to the shutdown and normal operation states of the transformer in historical operation.
Step 2, defining a load distribution coefficient F t (T i ，C j ) At a certain time t, the operation mode of the transformer substation is C j Then, the ith transformer load L i (t) and substation load L s (t) ratio. Calculating the operation mode C of the transformer substation by using the historical data of the transformer substation and adopting the following formula (1) j Transformer T during operation i Load distribution factor F at time t t (T i ，C j )，
In the formula:
F t (T i ，C j ) Representing a load distribution coefficient;
T i representing the ith transformer in N transformers which are operated in parallel in the transformer substation;
C j representing the jth operation mode in the K operation modes of the transformer substation;
t represents a measurement time;
L i (t) represents the load of the ith transformer at time t;
L s and (t) represents the load of the substation at time t.
Step 3, the load distribution coefficient F obtained in the step 2 t (T i ，C j ) Combined with the load L of the substation s (t) use of a non-linear regression function G (L) s (t)，T i ，C j ) Quantifying the load distribution coefficient F by the following equation (2) t (T i ，C j ) Load L with substation s (t) a non-linear mapping relationship,
F t (T i ，C j )＝G(L s (t)，T i ，C j )(2)
in the formula:
G(L s (t)，T i ，C j ) Representing the load L of a substation containing independent variables s (t) a non-linear regression function;
T i representing the ith transformer in N transformers which are operated in parallel in the transformer substation;
C j and the j operation mode in the K operation modes of the transformer substation is shown.
Under ideal conditions, the transformer load sharing factor is considered constant. However, in a real scene, various operation parameters of different parallel transformers are affected by the load level of the transformer substation to generate changes with different degrees, and the load distribution coefficient of each parallel transformer is indirectly affected. Thus, the load distribution coefficient F of each transformer is quantized using a non-linear regression function, as opposed to being reduced to a constant t (T i ，C j ) And the load L of the transformer substation s And (t) the nonlinear mapping relation can accurately and reasonably reflect the real dynamic change characteristics of the load distribution coefficients.
Preferably, in order to changeLoad L of power station s (t) as an argument with a load distribution factor F t (T i ，C j ) For dependent variables, a power function G (L) is used which contains constant terms s (t)，T i ，C j ) Load L of quantitative transformer substation s (t) and the load distribution factor F t (T i ，C j ) The non-linear mapping relationship between the two is expressed by formula (3)
G(L s (t)，T i ，C j )＝aL s (t) b +c(3)
L s (t) represents the load of the substation at time t;
a, b, c represent G (L) s (t)，T i ，C j ) The parameter value of (2).
Estimation of the nonlinear regression function G (L) using the least squares method s (t)，T i ，C j ) The parameter values a, b, c. It can be seen that the parameter values a, b, c are subject to the load L of the substation s (T), transformer number T i And operation mode C of transformer substation j The influence of (c) changes.
Step 4, the nonlinear regression function G (L) obtained in the step 3 s (t)，T i ，C j ) Combined with the load L of the substation s (t) applying the following formula (4) to the load L of the ith transformer at time t i (t) prediction, L s (t) can be realized by a short-term or ultra-short-term load forecasting technology at a substation level, and is easily obtained in a power system because the load at the substation level is required to be forecasted by a power grid.
L i (t)＝G(L s (t)，T i ，C j )·L s (t) (4)
In the formula:
L i (t) represents the load of the ith transformer at time t;
G(L s (t)，T i ，C j ) Representing loads L comprising independent variable substations s (t) a non-linear regression function;
L s and (t) represents the load of the substation at the time t.
When transformer substation operatesFormula C i Or number T of transformer i When the change occurs, only the corresponding nonlinear function G (L) needs to be replaced s (t)，T i ，C j ) And the load prediction of different running states and different parallel transformers of the transformer substation can be realized.
It is worth noting that as long as the substation is in a certain state C j The amount of historical data collected at run-time is not less than 4, including 4, i.e. not less than 4 points, and then the nonlinear function can be fitted and predicted. Therefore, the method for predicting the load of the multiple parallel transformers of the transformer substation has an obvious advantage that the method can be used in the scene of scarce load data in the calendar.
Compared with the load of the transformer level, represented by the prior art document 1, which is obtained by applying the traditional load prediction method aiming at the power system level to the load of the transformer level, the load prediction of a plurality of parallel transformers is realized by mining the nonlinear mapping relation between the load of the transformer station and the load of a plurality of parallel transformers under different operation modes of the transformer station and taking the load prediction result of the transformer station as input, and the workload of the load prediction is greatly reduced on the premise of improving the load prediction precision.
The following implementation examples of the prediction by the load prediction method for the plurality of parallel transformers in the transformer substation are given:
some transformer substation S comprises 4 transformers T running in parallel 1 ，T 2 ，T 3 ，T 4 In an Energy Management System (EMS for short), 4 transformers T running in parallel are stored 1 ，T 2 ，T 3 ，T 4 In 2015-2016 historical online monitoring data of active power, the substation S has a total of 4 operating modes in these two years, as shown in table 1:
in a real situation, as shown in table 2 below, generally, a substation operates at the time C1 for most of the time (that is, all transformers in the substation operate normally), but C2 to C4 are not common (a certain transformer in the substation stops operating, and the rest transformers operate normally), so that C1 often has a large amount of historical data, and the historical data of C2 to C4 is scarce. Since the power function structure including the constant term is very simple, even if the amount of data used for fitting is very large, no significant influence is caused on the calculation efficiency.
TABLE 1 operation mode of transformer substation
By T 1 For example, when the substation is at C 1 And C 4 When operating in a mode, T 1 Load distribution coefficient F t (T 1 ，C 1 ) And F t (T 1 ，C 4 ) And the load L of the transformer substation s (t) scattergrams of the mapping are shown in FIGS. 1 and 2, respectively.
According to the load distribution coefficient and the substation load L in the historical load data as shown in the attached figure 1 s (t) scatterplot, quantifying F using a nonlinear regression function as shown in equation (2) t (T 1 ，C 1 ) And F t (T 1 ，C 4 ) And L s (t) and fitting results are shown as black curves in fig. 1 and 2, respectively. According to the graph, the power function with the constant terms can accurately quantify and fit the nonlinear mapping relation between the transformer load distribution coefficient and the transformer substation load. The results of the parameter fitting of the nonlinear regression functions of the shunt transformers in the operating state of the remaining substations are shown in table 2.
TABLE 2 results of parameter fitting of nonlinear regression functions
242 historical load values of substation S over a certain period of time are collected, wherein [63, 133 [ ]]And [160, 234 ]]In two periods of time, the operation mode of the transformer substation is C 4 (T 3 Brief exit of operation) and the rest of the time period is C 1 . By T 1 For example, load prediction is performed using equation (4), and the corresponding G (L) is replaced according to the substation operation mode s (t)，T 1 ，C 1 ) And G (L) s (t)，T 1 ，C 4 ) As a non-linear regression function. The prediction results are shown in fig. 3, and the root mean square error of the predicted values is shown in table 3. Compared with the load distribution coefficient which is taken as a constant value, the accuracy of the transformer load prediction can be remarkably improved by using the nonlinear regression function to predict the load.
TABLE 3 prediction result error of different load prediction methods
As can be seen from the prediction results shown in FIG. 3, the transformer load method of the invention has high prediction accuracy. When the operation mode of the transformer substation changes or the loads of other parallel transformers need to be predicted, the loads of any transformer in any operation mode can be accurately predicted only by replacing the corresponding nonlinear regression function. In addition, compared with the method of establishing a separate load prediction model for each transformer, the method of replacing the nonlinear regression function can greatly reduce the workload of load prediction.
The method has the advantages that compared with the prior art, the method firstly defines the load distribution coefficient to describe the distribution relation between the parallel transformers and the transformer substation level load, uses the nonlinear regression function to quantize the nonlinear mapping relation between the load distribution coefficient and the transformer substation level load under different operation modes of the transformer substation, and finally takes the prediction result of the transformer substation load as input to realize the prediction of the loads of the plurality of parallel transformers according to the load distribution coefficient of the transformers.
The load distribution coefficient F of each transformer is quantified by using a nonlinear regression function compared with the method of simplifying the load distribution coefficient F into a constant t (T i ,C j ) And the load L of the transformer substation s The non-linear mapping relation between (t) can be accurateAnd reasonably reflects the real dynamic change characteristics of the load distribution coefficients. According to the method, on the premise of improving the accuracy of the load prediction result of the transformer, the workload of load prediction modeling is greatly reduced, and the dual improvement of the precision and the efficiency is realized.
As long as the substation is in a certain state C j The amount of historical data collected at run-time is not less than 4, including 4, i.e. not less than 4 points, and then the nonlinear function can be fitted and predicted. Therefore, the method for predicting the load of the plurality of transformers connected in parallel in the transformer substation has an obvious advantage that the method can be used in the scene of scarce historical load data.
The present applicant has described and illustrated embodiments of the present invention in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings, but it should be understood by those skilled in the art that the above embodiments are merely preferred embodiments of the present invention, and the detailed description is only for the purpose of helping the reader to better understand the spirit of the present invention, and not for limiting the scope of the present invention, and on the contrary, any improvement or modification made based on the spirit of the present invention should fall within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (5)
1. A method for predicting the load of multiple parallel transformers in transformer substation
Representing in a substation>
Fifth in a transformer with parallel operation>
Stand transformer, and/or>
Is a positive integer, <' > based on>
；/>
Representing a substation +>
In seed operating mode>
Seed operation mode>
Is a positive integer, <' > based on>
；/>
Indicates the measurement time and>
is a positive integer;
represents->
At a moment in time +>
The load of the transformer; />
Represents->
The load of the substation at any moment; the method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1, acquiring historical data of the transformer substation in a set time period, wherein the historical data comprises transformer substation load data, load data of each transformer and transformer operation mode data in the set time period;
the obtained transformer substation operation mode data refer to transformer outage and operation states of a transformer in historical operation;
step 2, using historical data of the transformer substation to adopt the following formula
Method for operating a computer substation>
Transformer on operation>
In or on>
The load distribution factor at a time instant->
step 3, the load distribution coefficient obtained in step 2
Combined with the load of the substation>
Based on a non-linear regression function>
Quantized load distribution factor>
And the load of the substation>
The non-linear mapping relationship of (a), device for selecting or keeping>
In the formula:
step 4, the nonlinear regression function obtained in step 3
Combined with the load of the substation>
Using the following formula>
To (X)>
At a moment in time +>
Load of table transformer>
The prediction is carried out in such a way that,
2. the method for predicting the load of the plurality of transformers connected in parallel in the substation according to claim 1, wherein the method comprises the following steps:
using a power function containing a constant term as a nonlinear regression function
/>
3. The method for predicting the load of the plurality of parallel transformers in the substation according to claim 2, wherein the method comprises the following steps:
estimating a nonlinear regression function using a least squares method
Is greater than or equal to>
。
4. The method for predicting the load of the plurality of parallel transformers in the substation according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the method comprises the following steps:
the set time period in step 1 ranges from 1 year to 3 years.
5. The method for predicting the load of the plurality of parallel transformers in the substation according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the method comprises the following steps:
obtaining historical data for at least 4 historical moments, i.e.
The method comprises the steps of fitting a nonlinear function and predicting, wherein the data comprises transformer substation load data, load data of each transformer and transformer operation mode data. />
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