CN107194571B - Communication equipment spare part configuration method based on risk quantitative control - Google Patents
Communication equipment spare part configuration method based on risk quantitative control Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a communication equipment spare part configuration method based on risk quantification control, which comprises the following steps: s1, setting an upper limit value and a lower limit value of the probability P (T) that the using quantity of equipment with the same model exceeds the inventory quantity of spare parts in a risk evaluation period T which can be borne by the existing network according to empirical values; s2, calculating the upper limit value and the lower limit value of the spare part inventory number m of the equipment with the same model; and S3, configuring the actual spare part stock quantity of the equipment with the same model according to the upper limit value and the lower limit value of the spare part stock quantity m of the equipment with the same model calculated in the S2. The invention can accurately configure the number of due spare part warehouses according to the risk born by the current network operation. And the probability that the using quantity of the spare parts of the equipment with the same type exceeds the inventory quantity of the spare parts can be calculated according to the inventory quantity of the spare parts of the equipment with the same type, so that the risk condition of the inventory quantity of the current spare parts is evaluated, and corresponding change and adjustment are performed.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of communication equipment spare part configuration, in particular to a communication equipment spare part configuration method based on risk quantification control.
Background
Because the communication industry has a high requirement on real-time security, communication operators need to stock spare parts. The communication operator adopts the uniform configuration rate or the step configuration rate to calculate the inventory of the spare parts aiming at the current network quantity and the importance of the certain type of spare parts, and also adopts the partial conservative configuration or adopts the general estimation to configure the inventory of the spare parts according to experience. If spare parts are not configured enough, a large number of service risk hidden dangers may exist, if spare parts are configured too much, a large amount of inventory funds are occupied, meanwhile, the improvement of the guarantee effect on the operation of the existing network is limited, and the situation that the operation cost is increased due to unreliable factors such as spare part upgrading or market value floating also exists. Therefore, the existing spare part inventory mode cannot quantify the service guarantee rate or the risk rate, and further cannot optimize the inventory design in real time according to the dynamic change of the current network data. Therefore, while a large amount of inventory funds are occupied, the guarantee effect on the operation of the existing network is very limited.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects in the prior art, the invention aims to provide a communication equipment spare part configuration method based on risk quantification control, which can accurately configure the number of spare parts in a spare part warehouse according to the risk born by the current network operation.
In order to achieve the above purposes, the technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows:
a communication equipment spare part configuration method based on risk quantification control comprises the following steps:
s1, knowing the inventory quantity m of spare parts of a certain device, calculating the probability P (T) that the use quantity of the same-model device exceeds the inventory quantity of the spare parts in the risk assessment period T, and specifically calculating the following steps:
according to the formula
Calculating the probability P (N (T) ═ k) of k faults of the equipment with the same model in the reservior period T, wherein k is the number of times of faults of the equipment with the same model in the reservior period T, e is a constant, and F is the number of times of using spare parts of the equipment with the same model in the risk assessment period T;
according to the formula
Calculating the probability P (N (t) is larger than m) that the using quantity of the equipment with the same model exceeds the stock quantity m of the spare parts in the reservior period t;
according to the formula P (X ≦ T) ═ 1-e-F*TCalculating the probability P (X is less than or equal to T) that the equipment with the same model fails in the risk evaluation period T;
calculating the probability P (T) that the same type of equipment in the risk evaluation period T uses more than the stock quantity of spare parts according to the formula P (T) < P (X ≦ T) < P (N (T) > m);
and S2, according to the probability P (T) that the use of the equipment of the same model exceeds the stock quantity of spare parts in the risk assessment period T obtained in the step S1, the stock quantity of the spare parts of the equipment of the same model is adjusted.
On the basis of the technical scheme, the using times F of spare parts of equipment with the same model in the risk assessment period T is QRTWherein Q is the number of the same type equipment operated by the current network, RTAnd evaluating the failure rate in the period T for the risks of the devices of the same model.
On the basis of the technical scheme, the using times of spare parts of equipment with the same model in the risk assessment period T are counted
Wherein Q is the number of the same type equipment operated by the current network, RTAssessing the failure rate, R, within a period T for risks of devices of the same modeluIs effective for spare parts of equipment with the same model.
On the basis of the technical scheme, the fault rate R in the risk evaluation period T of the equipment with the same modelTAnd taking the maximum value between the actual fault rate and the theoretical fault rate.
A communication equipment spare part configuration method based on risk quantification control comprises the following steps:
s1, setting an upper limit value and a lower limit value of the probability P (T) that the using quantity of equipment with the same model exceeds the inventory quantity of spare parts in a risk evaluation period T which can be borne by the existing network according to empirical values;
s2, according to the formula P (X ≦ T) ═ 1-e-F*TCalculating the probability P (X is less than or equal to T) that the equipment with the same model fails in the risk evaluation period T;
respectively substituting the upper limit value and the lower limit value of P (T) of S1 into a formula P (T) ═ P (X is less than or equal to T) × P (N (T) > m), and respectively calculating the probability P (N (T) > m) that the using quantity of the equipment with the same model exceeds the stock quantity m of spare parts in the corresponding stock supplementing period T;
according to the formula
Calculating the probability P (N (T) ═ k) of k faults of the equipment with the same model in the reservior period T, wherein the times of the faults of the equipment with the same model in the reservior period T are k, e is a constant, and F is the times of using spare parts of the equipment with the same model in the risk assessment period T;
respectively substituting the calculated P (N (t) > m) into a formula
Respectively calculating an upper limit value and a lower limit value of the spare part inventory number m of the equipment with the same model;
and S3, configuring the due spare part stock quantity of the equipment with the same model according to the upper limit value and the lower limit value of the spare part stock quantity m of the equipment with the same model calculated in the S2.
On the basis of the technical scheme, the using times F of spare parts of equipment with the same model in the risk assessment period T is QRTWherein Q is the number of the same type equipment operated by the current network, RTAnd evaluating the failure rate in the period T for the risks of the devices of the same model.
On the basis of the technical scheme, the using times of spare parts of equipment with the same model in the risk assessment period T are counted
Wherein Q is the number of the same type equipment operated by the current network, RTAssessing the failure rate, R, within a period T for risks of devices of the same modeluIs effective for spare parts of equipment with the same model.
On the basis of the technical scheme, the fault rate R in the risk evaluation period T of the equipment with the same modelTAnd taking the maximum value between the actual fault rate and the theoretical fault rate.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the advantages that:
(1) according to the communication equipment spare part configuration method based on risk quantification control, the inventory configuration quantity is controlled and optimized by calculating the probability that the inventory quantity of the existing spare parts exceeds the inventory spare part quantity of the same type of equipment in a risk assessment period; and the maximum value and the minimum value of the quantity of the spare parts can be calculated, and the inventory quantity of the spare parts can be accurately configured through the risk which can be born by the operation of the existing network.
(2) According to the communication equipment spare part configuration method based on risk quantification control, the fault rate of the same type of equipment in a risk assessment period is the maximum value between the actual fault rate and the theoretical fault rate, the spare part effective rate is further set, the spare part effective rate is obtained by calculating the warehouse completion rate and the inventory data effective rate, the influence factors of all aspects are comprehensively considered, and the risk which can be borne by the existing network operation is accurately controlled.
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FIG. 1 is a flowchart of example 1 of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a flowchart of embodiment 2 of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples.
Referring to fig. 1, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for configuring a spare part of a communication device based on risk quantization control, where the method includes:
s1, knowing the inventory quantity m of spare parts of a certain device, calculating the probability P (T) that the use quantity of the same-model device exceeds the inventory quantity of the spare parts in the risk assessment period T, and specifically calculating the following steps:
according to the formula
Calculating the probability P (N (t) ═ k) of k faults of the same type of equipment in the reservior period t, wherein k is the reservior period tthe number of times of faults of the equipment with the same model in T is constant, T is a reservior period, and F is the number of times of using spare parts of the equipment with the same model in the risk assessment period T;
according to the formula
Calculating the probability P (N (t) is larger than m) that the using quantity of the equipment with the same model exceeds the stock quantity m of spare parts in the reservior supplementing period t, wherein m is the stock quantity of the equipment with the same model;
according to the formula P (X ≦ T) ═ 1-e-F*TCalculating the probability P (X is less than or equal to T) that the equipment with the same model fails in the risk evaluation period T;
calculating the probability P (T) that the same type of equipment in the risk evaluation period T uses more than the stock quantity of spare parts according to the formula P (T) < P (X ≦ T) < P (N (T) > m);
and S2, according to the probability P (T) that the use of the equipment of the same model exceeds the stock quantity of spare parts in the risk assessment period T obtained in the step S1, the stock quantity of the spare parts of the equipment of the same model is adjusted.
In this embodiment, the following formula is used to calculate the number of times of using the spare parts used by the same type of equipment in the risk assessment period T, where F is QRTWherein Q is the number of the same type equipment operated by the current network, RTEvaluating the fault rate in the period T for the risks of the same type of equipment, wherein the fault rate R in the period T for the risks of the same type of equipmentTAnd taking the maximum value between the actual fault rate and the theoretical fault rate. The actual failure rate is a failure rate statistical value of actual operation of the existing network equipment, the theoretical failure rate is an empirical value provided by a spare part manufacturer, and the failure rate R of the existing network within the risk assessment period T of the equipment of the same model is not safe because the accident rate of the existing network is too strong and the accident rate of the existing network is not safe due to too few existing network equipment of certain modelsTAnd the maximum value between the actual fault rate and the theoretical fault rate is obtained, so that the safety and the security are better.
In this embodiment, the following formula may also be used to calculate the number of times of using the spare parts used by the same type of equipment in the risk assessment period T
Wherein Q is the number of the same type equipment operated by the current network, RTAssessing the failure rate, R, within a period T for risks of devices of the same modeluIs effective for spare parts of equipment with the same model. Theoretically, the spare part efficiency rate should be 100%, that is, all stock spare part data are correct and all spare parts are available, but in practical cases, the stock data have a certain error probability and the stock spare parts have a certain failure rate, so the spare part efficiency rate is an empirical value obtained according to the stock data efficiency rate and the warehousing completion rate.
Referring to fig. 2, embodiment 2 provides a method for configuring spare parts of a communication device based on risk quantization control, which includes the following specific steps:
s1, setting the upper limit value and the lower limit value of the probability P (T) that the using quantity of the equipment with the same model exceeds the inventory quantity of spare parts in the risk evaluation period T which can be born by the existing network according to the empirical value, wherein the upper limit value and the lower limit value are KPI (Key performance indicator) specified by an operator for the operation reliability of the equipment level and the network level;
s2, according to formula P (X ≦ T) ═ 1-e-F*TCalculating the probability P (X is less than or equal to T) that the equipment with the same model fails in the risk evaluation period T;
secondly, respectively substituting the upper limit value and the lower limit value of P (T) of S1 into a formula P (T) ═ P (X is less than or equal to T) × P (N (T) > m), and respectively calculating the probability P (N (T) > m) that the using quantity of the equipment with the same model exceeds the stock quantity m of spare parts in the corresponding stock supplementing period T;
thirdly, according to the formula
Calculating the probability P (N (T) ═ k) of k faults of the equipment with the same model in the reservior period T, wherein the times of the faults of the equipment with the same model in the reservior period T are k, e is a constant, and F is the times of using spare parts of the equipment with the same model in the risk assessment period T;
respectively substituting the calculated P (N (t) > m) into a formula
Respectively calculate the same typeThe upper limit value and the lower limit value of the stock quantity m of the spare parts;
and S3, configuring the due spare part stock quantity of the equipment with the same model according to the upper limit value and the lower limit value of the spare part stock quantity m of the equipment with the same model calculated in the S2.
In this embodiment, the following formula is used to calculate the number of times F that the spare parts of the same type of equipment are used in the risk assessment period T, where F is QRTWherein Q is the number of the same type equipment operated by the current network, RTEvaluating the fault rate in the period T for the risks of the same type of equipment, wherein the fault rate R in the period T for the risks of the same type of equipmentTAnd taking the maximum value between the actual fault rate and the theoretical fault rate. The actual failure rate is a failure rate statistical value of actual operation of the existing network equipment, the theoretical failure rate is an empirical value provided by a spare part manufacturer, and the failure rate R in the risk assessment period T of the equipment of the same model is low due to the fact that the number of the existing network equipment of certain models is too small, the accident of the existing network failure rate is high, and the existing network failure rate has reference valueTAnd the maximum value between the actual fault rate and the theoretical fault rate is obtained, so that the safety and the security are better.
In this embodiment, the following formula may also be used to calculate the number of times of using the spare parts of the devices of the same model in the risk assessment period T
Wherein Q is the number of the same type equipment operated by the current network, RTAssessing the failure rate, R, within a period T for risks of devices of the same modeluIs effective for spare parts of equipment with the same model. Theoretically, the spare part efficiency rate should be 100%, that is, all stock spare part data are correct, and all spare parts are available, but in practical cases, the stock data have a certain error probability, and the stock spare parts have a certain failure rate, so that the spare parts are effective according to the empirical value obtained from the stock data efficiency rate and the warehousing completeness rate.
The present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, and it will be apparent to those skilled in the art that various modifications and improvements can be made without departing from the principle of the present invention, and such modifications and improvements are also considered to be within the scope of the present invention. Those not described in detail in this specification are within the skill of the art.
Claims (2)
1. A communication equipment spare part configuration method based on risk quantification control is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, knowing the inventory quantity m of spare parts of a certain device, calculating the probability P (T) that the use quantity of the same-model device exceeds the inventory quantity of the spare parts in the risk assessment period T, and specifically calculating the following steps:
according to the formula
Calculating the probability P (N (T) ═ k) of k faults of the equipment with the same model in the reservior period T, wherein k is the number of times of faults of the equipment with the same model in the reservior period T, e is a constant, and F is the number of times of using spare parts of the equipment with the same model in the risk assessment period T;
according to the formula
Calculating the probability P (N (t) is larger than m) that the using quantity of the equipment with the same model exceeds the stock quantity m of the spare parts in the reservior period t;
according to the formula P (X ≦ T) ═ 1-e-F*TCalculating the probability P (X is less than or equal to T) that the equipment with the same model fails in the risk evaluation period T;
calculating the probability P (T) that the same type of equipment in the risk evaluation period T uses more than the stock quantity of spare parts according to the formula P (T) < P (X ≦ T) < P (N (T) > m);
s2, obtaining the probability P (T) that the use of the equipment with the same model exceeds the stock quantity of spare parts in the risk assessment period T according to S1, and adjusting the stock quantity of the spare parts of the equipment with the same model;
spare part using times of equipment with the same model in risk assessment period T
Wherein Q is the number of the same type equipment operated by the current network, RTIs designed for the same modelFailure rate, R, within a prepared risk assessment period TuThe efficiency of spare parts of equipment with the same model is improved;
failure rate R in risk assessment period T of devices of the same modelTAnd taking the maximum value between the actual fault rate and the theoretical fault rate.
2. A communication equipment spare part configuration method based on risk quantification control is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, setting an upper limit value and a lower limit value of the probability P (T) that the using quantity of equipment with the same model exceeds the inventory quantity of spare parts in a risk evaluation period T which can be borne by the existing network according to empirical values;
s2, according to the formula P (X ≦ T) ═ 1-e-F*TCalculating the probability P (X is less than or equal to T) that the equipment with the same model fails in the risk evaluation period T;
respectively substituting the upper limit value and the lower limit value of P (T) of S1 into a formula P (T) ═ P (X is less than or equal to T) × P (N (T) > m), and respectively calculating the probability P (N (T) > m) that the using quantity of the equipment with the same model exceeds the stock quantity m of spare parts in the corresponding stock supplementing period T;
according to the formula
Calculating the probability P (N (T) ═ k) of k faults of the equipment with the same model in the reservior period T, wherein the times of the faults of the equipment with the same model in the reservior period T are k, e is a constant, and F is the times of using spare parts of the equipment with the same model in the risk assessment period T;
respectively substituting the calculated P (N (t) > m) into a formula
Respectively calculating an upper limit value and a lower limit value of the spare part inventory number m of the equipment with the same model;
s3, configuring the due spare part stock quantity of the equipment with the same model according to the upper limit value and the lower limit value of the spare part stock quantity m of the equipment with the same model calculated in the S2;
spare part using times of equipment with the same model in risk assessment period T
Wherein Q is the number of the same type equipment operated by the current network, RTAssessing the failure rate, R, within a period T for risks of devices of the same modeluThe efficiency of spare parts of equipment with the same model is improved;
failure rate R in risk assessment period T of devices of the same modelTAnd taking the maximum value between the actual fault rate and the theoretical fault rate.
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| CN109472431B (en) * | 2018-04-10 | 2022-03-15 | 国网浙江省电力有限公司嘉兴供电公司 | Method for evaluating power-saving spare parts |
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