CN107171844B - Estimation method for failure rate of power communication equipment component - Google Patents
Estimation method for failure rate of power communication equipment component Download PDFInfo
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- CN107171844B CN107171844B CN201710367996.3A CN201710367996A CN107171844B CN 107171844 B CN107171844 B CN 107171844B CN 201710367996 A CN201710367996 A CN 201710367996A CN 107171844 B CN107171844 B CN 107171844B
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H04—ELECTRIC COMMUNICATION TECHNIQUE
- H04L—TRANSMISSION OF DIGITAL INFORMATION, e.g. TELEGRAPHIC COMMUNICATION
- H04L41/00—Arrangements for maintenance, administration or management of data switching networks, e.g. of packet switching networks
- H04L41/14—Network analysis or design
- H04L41/142—Network analysis or design using statistical or mathematical methods
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H04—ELECTRIC COMMUNICATION TECHNIQUE
- H04L—TRANSMISSION OF DIGITAL INFORMATION, e.g. TELEGRAPHIC COMMUNICATION
- H04L41/00—Arrangements for maintenance, administration or management of data switching networks, e.g. of packet switching networks
- H04L41/14—Network analysis or design
- H04L41/147—Network analysis or design for predicting network behaviour
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Abstract
a method for estimating failure rate of power communication equipment components. The method predicts the component fault development trend (fault mode) according to the overall fault condition of the equipment, selects the corresponding fault rate according to the component fault development trend to carry out arithmetic mean, and can be applied to the situation that the sample set of the component fault is small and the component fault rate of the communication equipment is estimated under the condition that the fault mode of the component is not clear.
Description
Technical Field
the invention relates to the technical field of power communication equipment, in particular to a method for estimating a failure rate of a component of power communication equipment.
Background
the power communication network construction communication transmission medium gradually realizes the conversion from microwave to optical cable, and the technical system realizes the crossing from an asynchronous digital system to a synchronous digital system. The current electric power communication network construction target comprises a transmission network, a service network and a support network, the integrated service transmission gradually becomes the main body of communication service, the application of the technology is more embodied on the data and information level, and the technology is the transition period from circuit switching represented by voice transmission to data switching represented by IP technology. The existing electric power communication network basically adopts electric power communication equipment, so that the safety risk of an electric power communication system is mainly generated due to the fault of the electric power communication equipment, and the estimation of the fault rate of parts of the electric power communication equipment is one of the main bases of risk assessment and spare part management.
Disclosure of Invention
In the prior art, when a fault sample set is large, the fault rate of a component is generally estimated by adopting a mathematical statistics method according to the historical fault condition of the component, but the sample set of the component fault is small, the fault mode of the component of the communication equipment is ambiguous, and the fault rate of the component cannot be estimated by adopting the mathematical statistics method.
Therefore, in order to solve the technical problem that the failure rate of the power communication equipment cannot be estimated in the prior art, a method for estimating the failure rate of the power communication equipment component needs to be provided.
a method of estimating the failure rate of a component of an electrical communications apparatus, the method comprising the steps of:
1) Assuming that a communication device C has been operating for N years, the device C has S components, denoted as ci (i ═ 1,2, …, S), the nominal manufacturer failure rate of each component is λ i (i ═ 1,2, …, S), and the statistical failure rate of the previous N years is
2) calculating the total deviation σ j (j is 1,2, …, N) of the previous N years of equipment C from the nominal failure rate;
3) calculating the deviation degree of the previous N years of component ci (i is 1,2, …, S) from the nominal failure rate of the manufacturer
4) estimating the failure rate of the part ci (i ═ 1,2, …, S) in the N +1 th year:
If σ j (j ═ 1,2, …, N) satisfies σ 1+ σ 2 > 2(σ N-1+ σ N) or σ N-1+ σ N > 2(σ 1+ σ 2), the statistical failure rate of the last two years is taken to estimate the failure rate of the (N + 1) th year;
otherwise, the statistical failure rate of the previous N years is taken to estimate the failure rate of the (N + 1) th year.
Further, in the step 2),
further, in the step 3),
further, in step 4), the formula for estimating the failure rate of the N +1 th year by taking the statistical failure rates of the last two years is as follows:
wherein,
Further, in step 4), the formula for estimating the failure rate of the N +1 th year from the statistical failure rates of the previous N years is as follows:
wherein,
compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects: the component fault development trend (fault mode) is predicted according to the overall fault condition of the equipment, and the corresponding fault rate is selected according to the component fault development trend to be subjected to arithmetic mean, so that the method can be applied to the situation that the sample set of component faults is small and the component fault rate of the communication equipment is estimated under the condition that the component fault mode is not clear.
Drawings
fig. 1 is a flowchart illustrating an estimation method of a failure rate of a component of power communication equipment according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
the present invention will be described in further detail with reference to examples.
As shown in fig. 1, a method for estimating a failure rate of a component of power communication equipment includes the following steps:
1) Assuming that a communication device C has been operating for N years, the device C has S components, denoted as ci (i ═ 1,2, …, S), the nominal manufacturer failure rate of each component is λ i (i ═ 1,2, …, S), and the statistical failure rate of the previous N years is
2) The total deviation σ j (j ═ 1,2, …, N) of the device C from the nominal failure rate for the previous N years was calculated.
3) Calculating the deviation degree of the previous N years of component ci (i is 1,2, …, S) from the nominal failure rate of the manufacturer
4) the failure rate of the part ci (i ═ 1,2, …, S) in year N +1 was estimated.
Due to the small number of samples of a single type of component, the fault of the component usually has a random characteristic and cannot show the development trend of the fault rate of the component. The equipment comprises various types of components, and the overall failure rate of the equipment can show the general failure trend due to the large number of samples. If the overall fault rate shows a remarkable rising or falling trend, the fault rate in the recent year (such as the recent two years) can better reflect the development trend of the component fault rate, the statistical fault rate in the recent two years is taken for arithmetic mean, and the larger one of the statistical fault rate and the nominal fault rate is taken as the estimated fault rate. If the total failure rate does not show an obvious change trend, calculating the average number of the failure rates of the past years, and taking the larger one of the failure rates as an estimated failure rate compared with the nominal failure rate; and if the overall fault rate does not show obvious variation trend, calculating the average of the fault rates of the past years, and taking the larger one of the fault rates as the estimated fault rate compared with the nominal fault rate.
therefore, if σ j (j is 1,2, …, N) satisfies σ 1+ σ 2 > 2(σ N-1+ σ N) or σ N-1+ σ N > 2(σ 1+ σ 2), the statistical failure rate of the last two years is taken to estimate the failure rate of the N +1 th year.
wherein,
Otherwise, the statistical failure rate of the previous N years is taken to estimate the failure rate of the (N + 1) th year.
Wherein,
it should be understood that the above-described embodiments of the present invention are merely examples for clearly illustrating the present invention, and are not intended to limit the embodiments of the present invention. Other variations and modifications will be apparent to persons skilled in the art in light of the above description. And are neither required nor exhaustive of all embodiments. Any modification, equivalent replacement, and improvement made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the claims of the present invention.
Claims (1)
1. A method for estimating failure rate of power communication equipment components is characterized in that,
The method comprises the following steps:
1) assuming that a communication device C has been operated for N years, the device C includes S components, denoted as ci (i ═ 1,2, …, S), the manufacturer nominal failure rate of each component is λ i (i ═ 1,2, …, S), and the statistical failure rate in the previous N years is fij (i ═ 1,2, …, S, j ═ 1,2, …, N);
2) calculating the total deviation σ j (j is 1,2, …, N) of the previous N years of equipment C from the nominal failure rate;
3) Calculating the deviation rij of the previous N-year part ci (i is 1,2, …, S) from the nominal failure rate of the manufacturer;
4) Estimating the failure rate of the part ci (i ═ 1,2, …, S) in the N +1 th year:
if σ j (j ═ 1,2, …, N) satisfies σ 1+ σ 2 > 2(σ N-1+ σ N) or σ N-1+ σ N > 2(σ 1+ σ 2), the statistical failure rate of the last two years is taken to estimate the failure rate of the (N + 1) th year;
Otherwise, the statistical failure rate of the previous N years is taken to estimate the failure rate of the (N + 1) th year;
in step 2);
In step 3), rij ═ fij- λ i |, i ═ 1,2, …, S, j ═ 1,2, …, N;
in step 4), the formula for estimating the failure rate of the N +1 th year by taking the statistical failure rates of the last two years is as follows:
Wherein, the first and second connecting parts are connected with each other;
In step 4), the formula for estimating the failure rate of the N +1 th year from the statistical failure rate of the previous N years is as follows:
Wherein,
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| CN201710367996.3A CN107171844B (en) | 2017-05-23 | 2017-05-23 | Estimation method for failure rate of power communication equipment component |
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| CN201710367996.3A CN107171844B (en) | 2017-05-23 | 2017-05-23 | Estimation method for failure rate of power communication equipment component |
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| CN107171844B true CN107171844B (en) | 2019-12-06 |
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Citations (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP2016091312A (en) * | 2014-11-05 | 2016-05-23 | 株式会社東芝 | Fault diagnosis apparatus and fault diagnosis method |
| CN106503417A (en) * | 2016-09-22 | 2017-03-15 | 国网江苏省电力公司泰州供电公司 | A kind of electrical equipment fault rate computational methods based on state evaluation |
| CN106569095A (en) * | 2016-11-09 | 2017-04-19 | 于祥茹 | Power grid fault diagnosis system based on weighted average dependence classifier |
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| US9798342B2 (en) * | 2015-02-23 | 2017-10-24 | Schweitzer Engineering Laboratories, Inc. | Detection and correction of fault induced delayed voltage recovery |
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Patent Citations (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP2016091312A (en) * | 2014-11-05 | 2016-05-23 | 株式会社東芝 | Fault diagnosis apparatus and fault diagnosis method |
| CN106503417A (en) * | 2016-09-22 | 2017-03-15 | 国网江苏省电力公司泰州供电公司 | A kind of electrical equipment fault rate computational methods based on state evaluation |
| CN106569095A (en) * | 2016-11-09 | 2017-04-19 | 于祥茹 | Power grid fault diagnosis system based on weighted average dependence classifier |
Non-Patent Citations (1)
| Title |
|---|
| 基于设备状态评价的故障率计算;段小峰;《2016年江苏省城市供用电学术年会论文集》;20161026;全文 * |
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