CN107169644A - A kind of power distribution network safe operation management-control method - Google Patents
A kind of power distribution network safe operation management-control method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of power distribution network safe operation management-control method, history data in current operating data and healthy running of this method by obtaining Distribution Network Equipment builds failure probability model, can quickly determine power distribution network operation risk；When power distribution network has operation risk, this method can quickly be compared the sample in running status and Sample Storehouse, and the control strategy of dbjective state is quickly generated with the same or analogous sample of dbjective state, the control strategy for using for reference sample if existing in Sample Storehouse；The present invention compared with prior art, with complexity it is low, assess efficiency high, control strategy is accurate, the advantages of performing quick.
Description
Art
The present invention relates to transmission ＆ distribution electrical domain, and in particular to a kind of power distribution network safe operation management-control method.
Background technology
Intelligent distribution network is the important component of power network, as requirement of the user to the quality of power supply in recent years is increasingly carried
Height, oneself warp of the raising of power distribution network overall performance turns into the important content that power industry is sustainable and develops in a healthy way.The event of power distribution network
Barrier is to influence the key factor of the quality of power supply and power supply reliability, only ensure that the safe and stable operation of power distribution network, can
Ensure the safe and reliable operation of whole power network.Therefore, it is highly desirable to carry out the work in more power distribution network Prevention-Security fields,
The methods of risk assessment of power distribution network is studied, by power distribution network carry out risk assessment, can in time, comprehensively find and match somebody with somebody
The tender spots and weakness zone of power network, and then defence and corrective measure are proposed, effectively suppress the generation and expansion of accident.
With the rapid increase of new-energy grid-connected capacity, the uncertain influence to power system exerted oneself is also increasingly
Greatly.For this reason, it is necessary to consider that new energy is exerted oneself uncertainty, risk assessment is carried out to operation of power networks, operation of power networks is grasped in advance
The risk of presence, take measures resisting risk in time, to ensure safe operation of electric network.
Photovoltaic generation is as most a kind of forms of electricity generation of economic development prospect in new energy, gradually by the weight of various countries
Depending on and obtain extensive development and utilization.Power network, its randomness, intermittent and perturbation etc. are accessed however as large-scale photovoltaic
Characteristic brings very big challenge to safe operation of power system, usually causes the generation of the accidents such as circuit overload, voltage out-of-limit.To line
The purpose for reducing system risk can be reached by passing by the progress risk control such as load, and operation stable to power system security is with non-
Often important realistic meaning.
The content of the invention
The present invention provides a kind of power distribution network safe operation management-control method, and this method is by obtaining the current fortune of Distribution Network Equipment
Line number history data according to this and in healthy running, builds failure probability model, can quickly determine distribution network operation wind
Danger；When power distribution network has operation risk, this method can quickly be compared the sample in running status and Sample Storehouse, if sample
Exist in this storehouse and quickly generate the control of dbjective state with the same or analogous sample of dbjective state, the control strategy for using for reference sample
Strategy；The present invention compared with prior art, with complexity it is low, assess efficiency high, control strategy is accurate, performs quick etc. excellent
Point.
To achieve these goals, the present invention provides a kind of power distribution network safe operation management-control method, and this method includes as follows
Step：
S1. the service data of Distribution Network Equipment is gathered；
S2. the service data is handled；
S3. the running status of power distribution network is estimated according to the service data after processing；
S4. according to assessment result, it is determined that the operation reserve with single net；
S5. above-mentioned operation reserve is implemented, it is ensured that power distribution network safe operation.
It is preferred that, the service data includes Distribution Network Equipment operational factor and ambient parameter, in the step S1, bag
Include following sub-step：
S11. the operational factor of the Distribution Network Equipment and the historical variations scope of ambient parameter are obtained；
S12 obtains the current operating parameter and ambient parameter of the Distribution Network Equipment.
It is preferred that, in the step S11, in the operational factor and the history of ambient parameter for obtaining the Distribution Network Equipment
Before excursion, the operational factor of the equipment and the historical data of ambient parameter are obtained.
It is preferred that, in the step S2, comprise the following steps：The historical data is screened, it is normal to obtain
The operational factor of equipment under working condition and the historical data of ambient parameter；According to the historical data after screening, obtain described
The operational factor of equipment and the historical variations scope of ambient parameter.
It is preferred that, in the step S3, running status and risk are carried out to power distribution network according to the service data of power distribution network
Assess, if assessment result shows that power distribution network is now in non-optimum state or risk status.
It is preferred that, in the step S4, comprise the following steps：
Existing sample in the assessment result received and Sample Storehouse is compared, with the presence or absence of identical in analysis Sample Storehouse
Or similar assessment result, obtain analysis result；
According to the analysis result, corresponding control strategy is generated, and feasibility verification is carried out to control strategy.
It is preferred that, in the step S5, according to the control strategy after the verification, corresponding control instruction is handed down to
Relevant device, completes the implementation of control strategy, and the relevant device includes ULTC, reactive-load compensation equipment, active
Filter apparatus and communication are switched.
It is preferred that, the Distribution Network Equipment operational factor includes power supply capacity, load variations, active reactive change, harmonic wave
Content, the ambient parameter includes meteorological data.
It is preferred that, in the step S3, probability of malfunction is determined according to the operational factor and ambient parameter, specifically included
Following steps：
For setting up failure probability model, described failure probability model bag according to described operational factor and ambient parameter
Include scale parameter and curvature parameters；
Scale parameter and curvature parameters according to being solved the historical data of the operational factor and ambient parameter；
Described scale parameter and curvature parameters are brought into described failure probability model, probability of malfunction is obtained.
It is preferred that, the actual duration of each state is determined from the historical data；Actually held according to described
The continuous time determines expectation state duration of each state on standard time axle；According to described actual duration, phase
State duration is hoped to determine curvature parameters；Scale parameter is determined according to described curvature parameters.
It is preferred that, described failure probability model is：
λ (S, t)=K (t) e-C(t)S
Wherein, λ is probability of malfunction, and S is the environmental index determined according to ambient parameter, and t is the equipment enlistment age, and K (t) is ratio
Parameter, C (t) is curvature parameters.
It is preferred that, described scale parameter and song is solved according to the historical data of described operational factor and ambient parameter
Rate parameter.
Technical scheme has the following advantages that：(1) by obtain Distribution Network Equipment current operating data and
History data in healthy running, builds failure probability model, can quickly determine power distribution network operation risk；(2) when with
When power network has operation risk, the sample in running status and Sample Storehouse can quickly be compared, if in Sample Storehouse exist with
The same or analogous sample of dbjective state, the control strategy for using for reference sample quickly generates the control strategy of dbjective state；(3) this hair
It is bright compared with prior art, with complexity it is low, assess efficiency high, control strategy is accurate, the advantages of performing quick.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 shows a kind of block diagram of power distribution network operation risk control system of the present invention；
Fig. 2 shows a kind of power distribution network safe operation management-control method.
Embodiment
Fig. 1 is a kind of power distribution network operation risk control system 10 for showing the present invention, and the control system includes：
Identification module 12, the service data for gathering power distribution network 20；
Processing module 13, for handling the power distribution network operation data that the identification module 12 is gathered；
Evaluation module 14, for according to the power distribution network operation data, the running situation to power distribution network to be estimated；
Control strategy generation module 15, for the assessment result drawn according to the evaluation module 14, determines power distribution network
Control strategy；
Implement module 16, for the real-time control strategy of equipment to power distribution network；
Middle control module 17, for coordinating each module work in the control system；
Communication bus 11, the liaison for the control system modules.
The service data includes Distribution Network Equipment operational factor and ambient parameter, and the identification module 12 includes：
First acquisition unit, for obtaining the operational factor of the Distribution Network Equipment and the historical variations model of ambient parameter
Enclose；
Second acquisition unit, current operating parameter and ambient parameter for obtaining the Distribution Network Equipment.
The processing module 13, in the operational factor and the historical variations of ambient parameter for obtaining the Distribution Network Equipment
Before scope, the operational factor of the equipment and the historical data of ambient parameter are obtained；The historical data is screened, with
Obtain the operational factor and the historical data of ambient parameter of the equipment under normal operating conditions；According to the historical data after screening,
Obtain the operational factor of the equipment and the historical variations scope of ambient parameter.
The evaluation module 14 carries out running status and risk assessment according to the service data of power distribution network to power distribution network, if commenting
Estimate result and show that power distribution network is now in non-optimum state or risk status, then assessment result is passed into control strategy generation module.
The control strategy generation module includes comparison unit and control strategy generation unit；
Existing sample in the assessment result received and Sample Storehouse is compared the comparison unit, in analysis Sample Storehouse
With the presence or absence of same or similar assessment result, analysis result is then passed into control strategy generation unit；
The control strategy generation unit generates corresponding control strategy, and control strategy is carried out according to analysis result
Implementation module is passed to after feasibility verification.
The implementation module 16 is received after the control strategy, and corresponding control instruction is handed down to relevant device, complete
Into the implementation of control strategy.The relevant device includes ULTC, reactive-load compensation equipment, active power filtering equipment and company
Network switch etc..
It is preferred that, the Distribution Network Equipment operational factor includes power supply capacity, load variations, active reactive change, harmonic wave
Content, the ambient parameter includes meteorological data.
The evaluation module 14 also includes probability of malfunction determining unit, for according to described operational factor and ambient parameter
Determine probability of malfunction.The probability of malfunction determining unit includes：
Failure probability model determination subelement, for setting up probability of malfunction mould according to described operational factor and ambient parameter
Type, described failure probability model includes scale parameter and curvature parameters；Parameter determination subelement, for according to the operation
Scale parameter and curvature parameters described in the historical data solution of parameter and ambient parameter；Probability of malfunction determination subelement, is used
In described scale parameter and curvature parameters to be brought into described failure probability model, probability of malfunction is obtained.
Described parameter determination subelement includes：The actual duration determines subdivision, for from described historical data
In determine actual duration of each state；The expectation state duration determines subdivision, for according to described reality
Duration determines expectation state duration of each state on standard time axle；Curvature parameters determining unit, for root
Curvature parameters are determined according to described actual duration, expectation state duration；Scale parameter determines subdivision, for basis
Described curvature parameters determine scale parameter.
Accompanying drawing 2 shows a kind of power distribution network safe operation management-control method of the present invention, and this method comprises the following steps：
S1. the service data of Distribution Network Equipment is gathered；
S2. the service data is handled；
S3. the running status of power distribution network is estimated according to the service data after processing；
S4. according to assessment result, it is determined that the operation reserve with single net；
S5. above-mentioned operation reserve is implemented, it is ensured that power distribution network safe operation.
It is preferred that, the service data includes Distribution Network Equipment operational factor and ambient parameter, in the step S1, bag
Include following sub-step：
S11. the operational factor of the Distribution Network Equipment and the historical variations scope of ambient parameter are obtained；
S12. the current operating parameter and ambient parameter of the Distribution Network Equipment are obtained.
It is preferred that, in the step S11, in the operational factor and the history of ambient parameter for obtaining the Distribution Network Equipment
Before excursion, the operational factor of the equipment and the historical data of ambient parameter are obtained.
It is preferred that, in the step S2, comprise the following steps：The historical data is screened, it is normal to obtain
The operational factor of equipment under working condition and the historical data of ambient parameter；According to the historical data after screening, obtain described
The operational factor of equipment and the historical variations scope of ambient parameter.
It is preferred that, in the step S3, running status and risk are carried out to power distribution network according to the service data of power distribution network
Assess, if assessment result shows that power distribution network is now in non-optimum state or risk status.
It is preferred that, in the step S4, comprise the following steps：
Existing sample in the assessment result received and Sample Storehouse is compared, with the presence or absence of identical in analysis Sample Storehouse
Or similar assessment result, obtain analysis result；
According to the analysis result, corresponding control strategy is generated, and feasibility verification is carried out to control strategy.
It is preferred that, in the step S5, according to the control strategy after the verification, corresponding control instruction is handed down to
Relevant device, completes the implementation of control strategy, and the relevant device includes ULTC, reactive-load compensation equipment, active
Filter apparatus and communication are switched.
It is preferred that, the Distribution Network Equipment operational factor includes power supply capacity, load variations, active reactive change, harmonic wave
Content, the ambient parameter includes meteorological data.
It is preferred that, in the step S3, probability of malfunction is determined according to the operational factor and ambient parameter, specifically included
Following steps：
For setting up failure probability model, described failure probability model bag according to described operational factor and ambient parameter
Include scale parameter and curvature parameters；
Scale parameter and curvature parameters according to being solved the historical data of the operational factor and ambient parameter；
Described scale parameter and curvature parameters are brought into described failure probability model, probability of malfunction is obtained.
It is preferred that, the actual duration of each state is determined from the historical data；Actually held according to described
The continuous time determines expectation state duration of each state on standard time axle；According to described actual duration, phase
State duration is hoped to determine curvature parameters；Scale parameter is determined according to described curvature parameters.
It is preferred that, described failure probability model is：
λ (S, t)=K (t) e-C(t)S
Wherein, λ is probability of malfunction, and S is the environmental index determined according to ambient parameter, and t is the equipment enlistment age, and K (t) is ratio
Parameter, C (t) is curvature parameters.
It is preferred that, described scale parameter and song is solved according to the historical data of described operational factor and ambient parameter
Rate parameter.
It is preferred that, the actual duration of each state is determined from described historical data.In specific embodiment party
In formula, each shape during the historical data of state change can be obtained during the complete health undergone to Distribution Network Equipment
The actual duration T of statep1,Tp2,....,TpN。
It is preferred that, the corresponding time standard axle of Distribution Network Equipment is obtained, the corresponding time standard axle of Distribution Network Equipment is T0。
Curvature parameters are determined according to described actual duration, described time standard axle, can be with by following formula
Determine curvature parameters C (t)：
Scale parameter is determined according to described curvature parameters, by following formula K (t) e-C(t)*100=λ0Determine ratio
Parameter K (t), wherein, λ0For random failure rate, random failure rate herein is, it is known that can be directly obtained.
Propose time standard axle T0, it is full marks that it, which assigns grid equipment in the environmental index condition grading that ambient parameter is determined,
The equipment of 100 timesharing expects life-span, that is, assumes that generating state change does not maintain the operation of full marks state until even to equipment always
The undergone time occurs for right property failure, meets
Therefore, time standard axle T0Size determined by chance failure rate.
Set device is in state SiWhen expectation state life-span T (Si).It refers to assume equipment with state Si, put into operation and protect
State operation is held until breaking down the stoppage in transit desired time, centre does not suffer from any other state, expectation state life-span T
(Si) meet following formula
With T0Unlike, T (Si) both received chance failure factor influence and also can by with state SiRelated must
The influence of right property failure factor.
Propose the conversion factor m (S based on time standard axlei).It refers to the expectation healthy longevity that equipment state is 100 timesharing
Order T0It is S with stateiWhen expectation state life-span T (Si) ratio, i.e.,
Because enlistment age t is to determine in formula, so the conversion factor m (S based on time standard axlei) only with state SiIt is relevant,
Only with state SiChange.The purpose for introducing the conversion factor based on time standard axle is the expectation that will include certainty failure factor
The expectation state life-span that state life conversion influences for only chance failure factor.
Set device is actual to maintain state SiTime Tpi.In equipment actual moving process, equipment state always occurs
Continuous small or interim change, rather than maintains state SiUntil failure.When equipment is from state SiIt is changed to state Si+1
When, state SiDuration is Tpi,TpiFor known quantity, directly it can be obtained from live historical data, i.e. state SiActually hold
The continuous time.
Set device is actual to maintain state SiExpectation state duration T on standard time axlep0i.It is by state Si
The obtained time standard axle of conversion of the actual duration through time standard axle on the expectation state duration.Its value is：
Tp0i=Tpi*m(Si)
Proposition all carries out each state actual duration undergone during complete health based on time standard axle
Conversion, with regard to when can obtain that corresponding expectation state influenceed by " chance failure factor " of each state continues on standard time axle
Between.One complete health process corresponding all expectation state duration for considering " chance failure factor " influence add up
The process life-span got up should be equal to the time standard axle T determined by chance failure rate0, formula is expressed as：
Wherein, N is state number.
The historical data of state change is each during can obtaining during one complete health of Distribution Network Equipment experience
The actual duration T of statep1,Tp2,....,TpN, that is, the actual duration for each state determined, then have
Wherein, T is the extraction time of whole complete health process.
Due to TpiAll it is known quantity, time standard axle T0Also it is known quantity, willAnd Tp0i
=Tpi*m(Si) formula substitutionFormula is obtained
Model coefficient of curvature C (t) of the equipment in enlistment age t can be solved, then result is substituted into K (t) e-C(t)*100=
λ0, just can solve model scale COEFFICIENT K (t) of the equipment in enlistment age t.
Above content is to combine specific preferred embodiment further description made for the present invention, it is impossible to assert
The specific implementation of the present invention is confined to these explanations.For general technical staff of the technical field of the invention,
On the premise of not departing from present inventive concept, some equivalent substitutes or obvious modification are made, and performance or purposes are identical, all should
It is considered as belonging to protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of power distribution network safe operation management-control method, this method comprises the following steps：
S1. the service data of Distribution Network Equipment is gathered；
S2. the service data is handled；
S3. the running status of power distribution network is estimated according to the service data after processing；
S4. according to assessment result, it is determined that the operation reserve with single net；
S5. above-mentioned operation reserve is implemented, it is ensured that power distribution network safe operation.
2. method as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that the service data includes Distribution Network Equipment operational factor and environment
Parameter, in the step S1, including following sub-step：
S11. the operational factor of the Distribution Network Equipment and the historical variations scope of ambient parameter are obtained；
S12. the current operating parameter and ambient parameter of the Distribution Network Equipment are obtained.
3. method as claimed in claim 2, it is characterised in that in the step S11, is obtaining the fortune of the Distribution Network Equipment
Before the historical variations scope of row parameter and ambient parameter, the operational factor of the equipment and the history number of ambient parameter are obtained
According to.
4. method as claimed in claim 3, it is characterised in that in the step S2, comprise the following steps：To the history number
According to being screened, to obtain the operational factor of the equipment under normal operating conditions and the historical data of ambient parameter；According to screening
Historical data afterwards, obtains the operational factor of the equipment and the historical variations scope of ambient parameter.
5. method as claimed in claim 4, it is characterised in that in the step S3, according to the service data of power distribution network to
Power network carries out running status and risk assessment, if assessment result shows that power distribution network is now in non-optimum state or risk status.
6. method as claimed in claim 5, it is characterised in that in the step S4, comprise the following steps：
Existing sample in the assessment result received and Sample Storehouse is compared, identical or phase is whether there is in analysis Sample Storehouse
Like assessment result, analysis result is obtained；
According to the analysis result, corresponding control strategy is generated, and feasibility verification is carried out to control strategy.
7. method as claimed in claim 6, it is characterised in that in the step S5, according to the control strategy after the verification,
Corresponding control instruction is handed down to relevant device, the implementation of control strategy is completed, the relevant device becomes including on-load voltage regulation
Depressor, reactive-load compensation equipment, active power filtering equipment and communication switch.
8. method as claimed in claim 7, it is characterised in that the Distribution Network Equipment operational factor includes power supply capacity, load
Change, active reactive change, harmonic content, the ambient parameter include meteorological data.
9. method as claimed in claim 8, it is characterised in that in the step S3, joins according to the operational factor and environment
Number determines probability of malfunction, specifically includes following steps：
For setting up failure probability model according to described operational factor and ambient parameter, described failure probability model include than
Example parameter and curvature parameters；
Scale parameter and curvature parameters according to being solved the historical data of the operational factor and ambient parameter；
Described scale parameter and curvature parameters are brought into described failure probability model, probability of malfunction is obtained.
10. method as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that actually holding for each state is determined from the historical data
The continuous time；Expectation state duration of each state on standard time axle is determined according to the described actual duration；Root
Curvature parameters are determined according to described actual duration, expectation state duration；Ratio is determined according to described curvature parameters
Parameter, described failure probability model is：
λ (S, t)=K (t) e-C(t)S
Wherein, λ is probability of malfunction, and S is the environmental index determined according to ambient parameter, and t is the equipment enlistment age, and K (t) joins for ratio
Number, C (t) is curvature parameters.
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| CN108280590A (en) * | 2018-02-09 | 2018-07-13 | 青海电研科技有限责任公司 | Photovoltaic plant online evaluation early warning system and method |
| CN110752545A (en) * | 2019-10-31 | 2020-02-04 | 河南启维智能飞行科技有限公司 | Auxiliary line patrol monitoring and management system |
| CN110994570A (en) * | 2019-12-19 | 2020-04-10 | 深圳供电局有限公司 | Power distribution network protection method and system, protection equipment and storage medium |
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Application publication date: 20170915 |