CN107016508A - One kind fires Risk assessment framework model based on fault tree and fluid dynamic silo - Google Patents
One kind fires Risk assessment framework model based on fault tree and fluid dynamic silo Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
Risk assessment framework model is fired based on fault tree and fluid dynamic silo the present invention relates to one kind, mixture is assessed using Fault Tree Analysis and fires occurrence frequency, and predicts and analyze the order of severity that silo is fired by designing hydrokinetics calculation model and probability equation.The present invention can efficiently reduce risk of explosion by calculation risk estimate.
Description
Technical field
It is particularly a kind of that risk is fired based on fault tree and fluid dynamic silo the present invention relates to practice and text field
Appraisal framework model.
Background technology
The blast of silo mixture is the blast produced by inflammable gas and combustible dust mixing.Wherein, inflammable gas amount can
Its minimum explosibility concentration can be likely lower than less than its minimum flammable amount, combustible dust amount.However, can be produced when the two is mixed
Raw explosibility mixture.Inflammable gas, which is mixed into dust, can be obviously improved the severe degree of blast.Shown by experiment
Maximum explosion pressure (P in ethene/polyethylene, hexane/polyethylene, propane/polyethylene mixturemax) increase and constant volume
(Kst) under maximum pressure rate rising.Methane/coal dust is mixture most dangerous in underground coal mine.In industrial processes also
In the presence of the example of some explosive mixtures formation, e.g., inflammable gas and wheat and jade that the fermentation process in warehouse is produced
Rice mix dust, forms explosive explosive mixture.
In addition, being also possible to produce one or many subsequent explosions along with the repercussions of blast.Repercussions can kick up ground
Dust, the energy that these dust are discharged by exploding is lighted, and result in subsequent explosion.In fact, the threat of subsequent explosion compares
Once explode bigger, because the concentration of its dust/explosive mixture is higher.Although in theory can be by eliminating blast five
At least one in key element prevents dust or the explosive mixture from exploding, but generally uses multiple means in actual applications
The risk of blast is reduced in tolerable scope.
Those will at least handle the enterprise person of all suffering from blast of dust or explosive mixture in a production link
Risk.This blast is all a threat to factory, workman, the environment of surrounding and production equipment and its product produced.
Therefore, in the urgent need to an instrument for combining various methods, software and program, for preventing dust and explosivity
Mixture explodes.However, due to its this complicated property, almost not on dust/explosivity in the paper delivered
The article of the risk assessment of mixture blast.
Risk management is a complete procedure for containing risk understanding, risk assessment and decision-making, it assures that having implemented
The risk control measure of effect.Risk management initiative recognition potential hazard, so as to be continued to the risk in tolerance interval
Management.
Document [1] is that dust and explosive mixture propose one and quantify Risk Management Framework (Qua-ntitative
Risk Management Framework,QRMF).The framework is applied to some industrial case studies and achieved huge
Achievement.The ALARP survey tools that document [2] is proposed also have obtained similar achievements.
The document referred to below for this patent：
[1]Abuswer,M.,Amyotte,P.R,Khan,F.,2011.A quantitative risk management
framework for dust and hybrid mixture explosions.J.Loss Prey.Process Ind.,
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jlp.2011.08.010。
[2]Abuswer,M.,Amyotte,P.R.,Khan,F.,Morrison,L.,2013.An optimal level
of dust explosion risk management:framework and application.J.Loss
Prey.Process Ind.26(November(6)),1530—1541,http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/
j.jlp.2013.08.018。
[3]Abbasi,T.,Abbasi,S.A.,2007.Dust explosions—cases,causes,
consequences,and control.3.Hazard.Mater.140(1—2),7—44。
[4]Frank,WL.,2004.Dust explosion prevention and the critical
importance of housekeeping.Process Saf.Prog.23(3),175—184,http:/Idx.doi.org/
10.iOO2Jprs.10033。
[5]Markowski,A.S.,2007.exLOPA for explosion risks
assessment.I.Hazard.Mater.142(3),669—676。
[6]Khan,F.l.,Abbasi,SA,1998.Rapid quantitative risk assessment of a
petrochemical industry using a new software package MAXCRED.J.Clean.Prod.6
(1),9-22。
[7]Khan,F.I.,Husain,T.,2001.Risk assessment and safety evaluation
using probabilistic fault tree analysis.Hum.EcoL Risk Assess.7(7),1909—1927。
[8]Papazoglou,l.A.,Bellamy,L.J.,Hale,A.R.,Aneziris,O.N.,Ale,B.J.M.,
Post,J.G.,Oh,J.I.H.,2003.I-risk:development of an integrated technical and
management risk methodology for chemical installations.J.Loss Prey.Process
Ind.16(6),575—591。
The content of the invention
In view of this, risk is fired with fluid dynamic silo based on fault tree the purpose of the present invention is to propose to one kind to comment
Estimate frame model, by calculation risk estimate, risk of explosion can be efficiently reduced.
The present invention is realized using following scheme：One kind fires risk assessment frame based on fault tree and fluid dynamic silo
Frame model, specifically includes following steps：
Step S1：Use DESC come simulated explosion scene to search blast pressure area, meanwhile, appearance is calculated using FTA quick-fried
Existing probability is blasted, Risk Calculation is then carried out, risk assessment is obtained；
Step S2：If it is unacceptable to assess risk, it is determined that have the identification of significant impact to the probability exploded
Unit and fail-safe program, and start application risk control, using QRMF controls with by risk minimization at least tolerable
The limit；
Step S3：Remaining hazard analysis is carried out, return to step S1 carries out new DESC simulations.
Further, the step S1 specifically includes following steps：
Step S11：Simulating by the way of best estimate to the facility structure, whole grain during simulated explosion in DESC
Pressure distribution in the building of storehouse；
Step S12：Blast is calculated by following formula the damage caused by facility：
Y=-23.8+2.92*ln (Povr)；
Wherein, Y represents the damage that blast is caused to facility, PovrThe pressure of explosive in facility is represented,
Step S13：There is the environmental data having a strong impact on to exploding in investigation silo production environment, including environment enclosed,
Possibility containing inflammable gas in dust concentration, explosive content of material, oxidant concentration, air；
Step S14：Comprehensive individual risk, risk index, three factors of group risk obtain risk assessment.
Further, individual risk described in step S14 includes the average individual risk of population of exposure, of ad-hoc location
The individual risk of body risk and particular individual；
Wherein, the average individual risk IR of population of exposurex,yCalculating use following formula：
In formula, IRx·y,iRepresent to be located at x, y (yr-1)=fi*pf,iIndividual risk, fiRepresent the frequency of event result, pf,i
Represent probability of death, Px,yRepresent the number at x, y；
Wherein, the individual risk LSIR of ad-hoc location is calculated using following formula：
LSIR=∑s fi*Pfi；
Wherein, the individual risk ISIR of particular individual is calculated using following formula：
ISIR=LSIR*PL；
In formula, PLRepresent the personal time scale spent a position.
Further, the risk index includes fatal accident rate FAR, specific to be calculated using following formula：
Wherein, H represents annual work hours.
Further, in step S14, the group risk is measured using F-N curves, and the F-N curves are a kind of societies
Meeting risk measurement, can show the relation between the cumulative frequency of event and death toll.
Further, in the step S2, the application risk control is specifically included using inherently safe rule, using work
Journey safety regulation and application security；Wherein, the inherently safe rule is by minimum, replacement, appropriate order control
The expection main cause of silo blast processed；The application project safety regulation includes the security and active engineering passively designed
Safety, the security passively designed includes the enough explosion ventings that can discharge blast pressure in time mouthful of addition, addition
Smoke detector, the active engineering safety includes increasing automatic Explosionsunter-druckungssystem, before suppressing to inertia explosivity
Dust clouds；Described program includes safely the code of safe practice artificially formulated, and includes the truck unloading program of safety.
Compared with prior art, the present invention has following beneficial effect：The present invention assesses mixing using Fault Tree Analysis
Thing fires occurrence frequency, and by designing hydrokinetics calculation model and probability equation predicts and analyze that silo fires is tight
Weight degree.It is demonstrated experimentally that the present invention can efficiently reduce risk of explosion by calculation risk estimate.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the principle process schematic diagram of the embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is the DESC pressure simulation schematic diagrames of the embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 3 is the dynamic pressure simulation schematic diagram in the silo of the embodiment of the present invention.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiment the present invention will be further described.
As shown in figure 1, being originally that example fires risk assessment there is provided one kind based on fault tree and fluid dynamic silo
Frame model, specifically includes following steps：
Step S1：Use DESC come simulated explosion scene to search blast pressure area, meanwhile, appearance is calculated using FTA quick-fried
Existing probability is blasted, Risk Calculation is then carried out, risk assessment is obtained；
Step S2：If it is unacceptable to assess risk, it is determined that have the identification of significant impact to the probability exploded
Unit and fail-safe program, and start application risk control, using QRMF controls with by risk minimization at least tolerable
The limit；
Step S3：Remaining hazard analysis is carried out, return to step S1 carries out new DESC simulations.
In the present embodiment, the step S1 specifically includes following steps：
Step S11：Simulating by the way of best estimate to the facility structure, whole grain during simulated explosion in DESC
Pressure distribution in the building of storehouse；
Step S12：Blast is calculated by following formula the damage caused by facility：
Y=-23.8+2.92*ln (Povr)；
Wherein, Y represents the damage that blast is caused to facility, PovrThe pressure of explosive in facility is represented,
Step S13：There is the environmental data having a strong impact on to exploding in investigation silo production environment, including environment enclosed,
Possibility containing inflammable gas in dust concentration, explosive content of material, oxidant concentration, air；
Step S14：Comprehensive individual risk, risk index, three factors of group risk obtain risk assessment.
In the present embodiment, individual risk described in step S14 includes the average individual risk of population of exposure, ad-hoc location
Individual risk and particular individual individual risk；
Wherein, the average individual risk IR of population of exposurex,yCalculating use following formula：
In formula, IRx·y,iRepresent to be located at x, y (yr-1)=fi*pf,iIndividual risk, fiRepresent the frequency of event result, pf,i
Represent probability of death, Px,yRepresent the number at x, y；
Wherein, the individual risk LSIR of ad-hoc location is calculated using following formula：
LSIR=∑s fi*Pfi；
Wherein, the individual risk ISIR of particular individual is calculated using following formula：
ISIR=LSIR*PL；
In formula, PLRepresent the personal time scale spent a position.
In the present embodiment, the risk index includes fatal accident rate FAR, specific to be calculated using following formula：
Wherein, H represents annual work hours.
In the present embodiment, in step S14, the group risk is measured using F-N curves, and the F-N curves are one
Social risk measurement is planted, the relation between the cumulative frequency of event and death toll can be shown.
In the present embodiment, in the step S2, the application risk control is specifically included using inherently safe rule, answered
With engineering safety regulation and application security；Wherein, it is described it is inherently safe rule be by minimize, substitute, appropriateness it is suitable
The expection main cause of sequence control silo blast；The application project safety regulation includes security and the active passively designed
Engineering safety, the security passively designed the explosion venting that can in time discharge blast pressure mouthful enough including adding,
Add smoke detector, the active engineering safety includes increasing automatic Explosionsunter-druckungssystem, before suppressing to inertia it is quick-fried
Fried property dust clouds；Described program includes safely the code of safe practice artificially formulated, and includes the truck unloading program of safety.
In the present embodiment, by northeast silo in 2015 occur be mixed together thing explosive incident exemplified by, carry out specific
Illustrate.By inquiry, related data is collected as shown in table 1.
The explosive parameters of the corn dust concentration of table 1.
Accident investigation shows that the facility lacks Safety Management Measures, in high-end trim.Therefore the event is chosen as grinding
Study carefully case, how infringement is prevented/mitigate using QRMF to study.This case study is shown in similar storage facility
The consequence and its seriousness that may occur.
The quantization Risk Management Framework of the present embodiment is specific as follows：
Hazard recognition first：Survey report confirms that explosive source is barley, wheat and corn dust, may be mixed with fermentation production
Raw inflammable gas.Table 1 lists the explosive parameters of corn dust.The reaction of cornstarch dust more aggravates than wheat or barley
It is strong, therefore simulate issuable worst case from it.
Then understand dangerous：The present embodiment is quick-fried to simulate using DESC (Dust Explosion Simulation Code)
Scene is fried to search blast pressure area (order of severity).Probability of occurrence is calculated using FTA, Risk Calculation is then carried out, wind is obtained
Assess danger.
Carry out consequences analysis：DESC is simulated due to security regulation, and the part on the silo storage facility structure of company is thin
Section be it is private, such as：Emergency exit, working region, safety rule etc..Therefore the simulation to the facility structure in DESC is adopted
With " best estimate ".Table 2 lists the parameter of pressure plare.Table 3 summarizes the important parameter needed for DESC simulation processes.Simulation
During the main fuel used be cornstarch dust.It is worth noting that, wheat and barley dust are also right in a short time
The order of severity entirely exploded has certain influence.
DESC simulates the pressure distribution in the whole silo building of explosion time.Fig. 2 is DESC pressure simulation schematic diagrames, and it will
The pressure distribution of explosion time is showed with different colours.As shown in Fig. 2 pressure has reached 0.35bar (g) (3.5x10^
4Pa)) and marked region most dangerous in whole facility of explosion time, i.e. the maximum region I of pressure, and dangerous minimum area
The minimum region K in domain, i.e. pressure.Fig. 2 shows that the pressure that explosion time is produced is enough to destroy whole facility, explode the dust that causes and
It is also a big security threat that architect shatter, which splashes,.
The pressure board parameter of table 2
Table 3.DESC parameter lists
Each region damage ratio of the explosion time of table 4.
Blast can be obtained by formula (1) to the damage caused by facility during probability conversion table and blast analogue
Pressure parameter estimate parameter.The damage caused to each region of exploding is embodied in the form of percentage.In view of blast
To the threat for the workman for being trapped in the region, region risk factor uses the degree of injury identical value (i.e. 96%, 50% in the region
Have and the impairment value identical death rate with the region of 0% damage).Blast pressure and its corresponding probable value and the region
Damage accounting as shown in table 4.
Y=-23.8+2.92*ln (Povr) (1)
In the present embodiment, calculated followed by possibility：From the point of view of production environment in silo, have tight to blast
The environmental data that ghost image rings is as follows：
● environment enclosed 75%.Blast is betided in tower, and tower has at that time opens to other buildings.
● dust concentration 25%.Beyond safe range.
● explosive content of material surpasses 99%.Wheat, barley and corn dust in silo are explosive substance entirely, in addition with
Inflammable gas in air.
● oxidant concentration 80%.
● the possibility containing inflammable gas is more than 75% in air.
It is risk assessment the step of after calculating the possibility of the analysis of damage sequence seriousness and accident generation.
Include following key element:
It is individual risk first：The cause of the death of most of victim is caused by being caved at the top of silo in accident.Individual risk
Calculated in working region.The probability (f) that fault tree calculates accident generation is 4.21x10-3Every year.Table 5 lists every piece
The death rate P in regionf,i.The region I death rate is 1.0 (100%), is caved in and led by the building collapse and cereal in the region 96%
Cause.The region K death rate is 0.25 (25%), and having fragment to splash causes.Table 5 is by the accident frequency f of each region (I, J, K)i
It is multiplied by death rate Pf,iAfter must have an accident overall risk.The death rate is multiplied by and is drawn after number of workers and estimates death toll.
The individual risk of table 5
Average individual risk (the IR of population of exposurex,y) determined by formula (2)；However, the individual risk of ad-hoc location
(LSIR) determined respectively by formula (3) and (4) with the individual risk (ISIR) of particular individual.
Wherein：
IRx·y,iRepresent to be located at x, y (yr-1)=fi*pf,iIndividual risk；
fiRepresent the frequency of event result, such as i (yr-1)；
pf,iRepresent probability of death, such as i；
Px,yRepresent the number at x, y；
LSIR=∑s fi*Pfi (3)
ISIR=LSIR*PL (4)
Wherein：
PLRepresent the personal time scale spent a position
LSIRT=7.3 × 10-3；
ISIR=2.43 × 10-3；
In the present embodiment, the second factor of the risk assessment is risk index, and the risk index mainly includes
Fatal accident rate (FAR).Fatal accident rate is every 108The death toll of individual exposed hour, this is about to be worked the longevity at 1000
The hourage exposed during hit work.The scope of the typical fatal accident rate of industry is 1-30[3]Fatal accident rate is compared with individual
Risk is easier to understand.Equation 3.10 is used to calculate fatal accident rate from ISIR[4]。
Wherein：
H represents annual work hours.
In the present embodiment, the second factor of the risk assessment is colony (society) risk, and it is with F-N curves come table
Show.F-N curves are a kind of social risk measurements, can show the relation between the cumulative frequency of event and death toll.The curve
Depict F-N historical datas and show they are unacceptable, tolerable or acceptable in which region.Also, it will go through
History data are compared with QRA results, i.e. it is given threaten apply QRM agreements on plan view after.Table 6 lists death
Number and the frequency in each event area.
Table 7 illustrates F-A data, and it shows the cumulative frequency of the death rate from minimum to peak.
Each region death condition of table 6.
Table 7 adds up death condition
The summary of each Risk Results of table 8
In the present embodiment, risk assessment is then carried out：Table 8 summarizes the Risk Calculation of silo blast, shows that risk is
It is unacceptable.
In the present embodiment, there are the recognition unit and fail-safe program of significant impact to the probability of top event, below
It is the probability exploded：In the presence of the fuel gas from fermentation；Mix mixed explosion in dust loop；Two groups of units
Between open gap；The presence of corn dryer；Repair and unload program；Lack smoke detector.
In the present embodiment, followed by application risk control：The unit and unsafe process operation of identification are responded,
Should be using QRMF controls with by risk minimization at least tolerable limit.Specifically include inherently safe, engineering safety, with
And program safety.
Wherein, it is inherently safe：Intrinsic security doctrine (minimize, substitute, appropriateness) is applied to control silo quick-fried in order
Fried expection main cause, as shown in table 9.
Engineering safety：
The security passively designed：The enough explosion ventings that can discharge blast pressure in time mouthful of addition, and add cigarette
Fog detector.
Active engineering safety：Increase an automatic Explosionsunter-druckungssystem, can be with any potential explosivity of inertia (suppression)
Dust clouds.
Program safety：
Using the truck unloading program of safety.If in addition, carried out to process unit or the cleaning procedure of working region
Any modification, then should examine the program of whole mounting design.Check and apply security maintenance program, to reduce any possible point
Burning things which may cause a fire disaster.In addition, create, modification, and (or) using the security procedure of contingency plan, and relevant worker-safety issues are determined
Phase training program.
Intrinsic security doctrine is applied to cause the unit and parapraxis of blast by table 9
Table 10 opens the pressure value and its size of pressure plare in storage silo
| Pressure plare is numbered | Pressure (kPa) during opening | Size (m2) |
| PP1-PP4 | 5 | 60 |
| PP5 | 5 | 54 |
| PP6 | 20 | 175 |
| PP7 | 5 | 42 |
| PP8-PP9 | 5 | 175 |
After above-mentioned work has been carried out, the present embodiment also continues to understand remaining danger：
Consequences analysis is carried out first：After the possible risk control during application is above-mentioned, new DESC simulations have been carried out.
Table 10 provides new pressure release panel opening value, for that can carry out safe operation.Dust concentration is reduced to 250g/
m3, this is the 50% of former concentration.By the system of supplement, the fuel gas formed by fermentation process is decreased.
In simulation process, blast pressure distribution is almost identical in building, until reaching ventilation oil pressure relief
It is worth (5kPa, or 0.05bar (g)), afterwards, the region of different pressures is initially formed, illustrates to discharge and quick-fried by the pressure of panel
The continuity of fried reaction.
Fig. 3 shows the dynamic pressure simulation in silo, shows the Pressure Development at monitoring point M3, M8 and M11.
Maximum explosion pressure in module (4,1) is represented by M3 first peak in 3.4s recorded, 0.05bar (g), and by
Second peak of the M8 and M11 records at 12.4s represents the maximum pressure in module (4,2), 0.05bar (g).Total explosion time
Between 14s, be also shown in Fig. 3.
Table 11 lists the maximum explosion pressure using each blast area after QRMF, corresponding probable value and unobvious
Infringement percentage, this shows significant protection in case study.
Estimated probability damage caused by casualty effect case explosion overpressure after the application of table 11 QRMF in simulation pellet storehouse
Percentage
In the present embodiment, table 12 compares the probability of happening of the blast before and after application QRMF.Use equation
2.5 (" best-guess " methods), recalculate some elementary events in fault tree flow chart, wherein k=1/3, n=t=10
Year.This causes elementary event probable value to be 0.0325, and solves the security control of application, as follows：
The probability (have to be larger than or equal to MEC) concentrated such as dust is minimized to 0.0325, existing airborne dust particle
It equally will be reduced to 0.0325.
Application security measure, such as hot ventilation is frequently mechanically and electrically safeguarded and equipment ground checks, by machine
The probability of tool shock spark, flame and directly heat or electrostatic is reduced to 0.0325.
Incandescent material incendiary source is reduced to 0.0325 by the new security procedure of organic storage and appropriate ventilating system, and is subtracted
The presence of few fuel gas.
The estimation mortality for the elementary event exploded before and after the application of table 12 QRMF
Finally, the present embodiment has re-started evaluation of risk：Previous emulation and calculating after application QRMF are demonstrated
The framework realized.Table 12 shows the remaining result of mixture blast, and it is very low, as that can see in table 13, and
And the probability occurred is lowered to annual 1.5 × 10-5。
LSIRt=1.04 × 10-9+1.97×10-9+ 0=3.0 × 10-9；
The individual risk of the silo of table 13. calculates, module (4,1)
Individual risk's result of the storage silo blast of table 14. is summarized
In the present embodiment, the personal and social risk of dust/mixture mixed explosion is initially unacceptable (3.0
×10-3), but 1.9 × 10 were reduced to later-9, this shows that (in theory) is a very safe process.This analysis
It is related to structure destruction, but still there is extra risk, the pressure security that for example can not normally open is exported, fire, blast
Fragment, the structural weak points in a few thing region etc..
Table 14 compares the risk measurement result obtained before and after application QRMF is controlled.The each individual event of numerical monitor
The overall risk of measure is decreased：Probability of happening is decreased, and IR, LSIR, ISIR and FAR are very acceptable.
The present embodiment research reflects the dust that may threaten process industrial and mixture mixed risk.DESC is promoted
QRMF risk analysis；DESC simulates the explosive event of the maximum pressure in each region, and wherein simulative display causes to give
The blast pressure area of the destruction of process industrial.Then, the structural damage percentage in each region is determined by Probit equations.
Before and after application framework, for case calculation risk estimation (risk index, individual risk and social risk), QRMF shows
Show significant risk reduction.
The QRMF that the present embodiment is proposed can help prevent/mitigate dust and the mixture mixed explosion in process industrial,
Optimal level of security is provided by application control hierarchical structure, and the complete graph of dust and mixture mixed explosion risk is provided
Piece.The value that security control is arranged in level is to minimize safety applications cost, by applying intrinsic safety standard and journey
Sequence come prevent blast.If risk is still unacceptable, it can mitigate using design safety and some program safety measures
Blast consequence.
The foregoing is only presently preferred embodiments of the present invention, all equivalent changes done according to scope of the present invention patent with
Modification, should all belong to the covering scope of the present invention.
Claims (6)
1. one kind fires Risk assessment framework model based on fault tree and fluid dynamic silo, it is characterised in that：Including with
Lower step：
Step S1：Use DESC come simulated explosion scene to search blast pressure area, meanwhile, appearance is calculated using FTA and explodes
Existing probability, then carries out Risk Calculation, obtains risk assessment；
Step S2：If it is unacceptable to assess risk, it is determined that have the recognition unit of significant impact to the probability exploded
And fail-safe program, and start application risk control, using QRMF controls with by risk minimization at least tolerable pole
Limit；
Step S3：Remaining hazard analysis is carried out, return to step S1 carries out new DESC simulations.
2. one kind according to claim 1 fires Risk assessment framework mould based on fault tree and fluid dynamic silo
Type, it is characterised in that：The step S1 specifically includes following steps：
Step S11：The simulating by the way of best estimate to the facility structure in DESC, whole silo is big during simulated explosion
Pressure distribution in building；
Step S12：Blast is calculated by following formula the damage caused by facility：
Y=-23.8+2.92*ln (Povr)；
Wherein, Y represents the damage that blast is caused to facility, PovrThe pressure of explosive in facility is represented,
Step S13：There are the environmental data having a strong impact on, including environment enclosed, dust to blast in investigation silo production environment
Possibility containing inflammable gas in concentration, explosive content of material, oxidant concentration, air；
Step S14：Comprehensive individual risk, risk index, three factors of group risk obtain risk assessment.
3. one kind according to claim 2 fires Risk assessment framework mould based on fault tree and fluid dynamic silo
Type, it is characterised in that：Individual risk described in step S14 includes the average individual risk of population of exposure, the individual of ad-hoc location
The individual risk of risk and particular individual；
Wherein, the average individual risk IR of population of exposurex,yCalculating use following formula：
In formula, IRx·y,iRepresent to be located at x, y (yr-1)=fi*pf,iIndividual risk, fiRepresent the frequency of event result, pf,iRepresent
Probability of death, Px,yRepresent the number at x, y；
Wherein, the individual risk LSIR of ad-hoc location is calculated using following formula：
LSIR=∑s fi*Pfi；
Wherein, the individual risk ISIR of particular individual is calculated using following formula：
ISIR=LSIR*PL；
In formula, PLRepresent the personal time scale spent a position.
4. one kind according to claim 3 fires Risk assessment framework mould based on fault tree and fluid dynamic silo
Type, it is characterised in that：The risk index includes fatal accident rate FAR, specific to be calculated using following formula：
Wherein, H represents annual work hours.
5. one kind according to claim 2 fires Risk assessment framework mould based on fault tree and fluid dynamic silo
Type, it is characterised in that：In step S14, the group risk is measured using F-N curves, and the F-N curves are a kind of social wind
Danger measurement, can show the relation between the cumulative frequency of event and death toll.
6. one kind according to claim 1 fires Risk assessment framework mould based on fault tree and fluid dynamic silo
Type, it is characterised in that：In the step S2, the application risk control is specifically included using inherently safe rule, application project
Safety regulation and application security；Wherein, the inherently safe rule is by minimum, replacement, appropriate sequential control
The expection main cause of silo blast；The application project safety regulation includes the security passively designed and active engineering peace
Entirely, the security passively designed includes the enough explosion ventings that can discharge blast pressure in time mouthful of addition, addition cigarette
Fog detector, the active engineering safety includes increasing automatic Explosionsunter-druckungssystem, before suppressing to inertia explosive dirt
Cloud；Described program includes safely the code of safe practice artificially formulated, and includes the truck unloading program of safety.
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| CN109359833A (en) * | 2018-09-27 | 2019-02-19 | 中国石油大学(华东) | A kind of ocean platform based on ABC-BRANN model fires risk analysis method |
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| CN114882957A (en) * | 2022-04-11 | 2022-08-09 | 北京理工大学 | Efficiency evaluation method for binary composite combustion improver |
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Cited By (8)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108304682A (en) * | 2018-03-16 | 2018-07-20 | 天津大学 | A kind of comprehensive safe evaluation method of flammable working medium inverse circulation systerm |
| CN109359833A (en) * | 2018-09-27 | 2019-02-19 | 中国石油大学(华东) | A kind of ocean platform based on ABC-BRANN model fires risk analysis method |
| CN109359833B (en) * | 2018-09-27 | 2022-05-27 | 中国石油大学(华东) | Ocean platform blasting risk analysis method based on ABC-BRANN model |
| CN110956409A (en) * | 2019-12-10 | 2020-04-03 | 北方工业大学 | Community gas equipment risk control method and device |
| CN112488469A (en) * | 2020-11-16 | 2021-03-12 | 马鞍山矿山研究总院股份有限公司 | Mine natural disaster hazard source risk prevention mechanism management system and method |
| CN113268880A (en) * | 2021-05-31 | 2021-08-17 | 中国地质大学（武汉） | Dust explosion major safety risk identification and evaluation method |
| CN113268880B (en) * | 2021-05-31 | 2022-04-22 | 中国地质大学（武汉） | Dust explosion major safety risk identification and evaluation method |
| CN114882957A (en) * | 2022-04-11 | 2022-08-09 | 北京理工大学 | Efficiency evaluation method for binary composite combustion improver |
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