CN106960267B - Defoliating agricultural insect pest risk assessment method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention belongs to the technical field of artificial intelligence research, and particularly relates to a method for evaluating the risk of leaf-eating agricultural insect pests. Before the insect damage is possibly exploded, according to a risk evaluation result, scientific and effective measures are taken in time for areas with higher risk to control the insect situation, and the disaster loss is reduced to the minimum.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to an evaluation technology of occurrence risk of leaf-eating agricultural insect pests based on fixed-point survey and regional general survey, and belongs to the technical field of artificial intelligence research.
Background
Pest risk analysis work began in the middle of the 19 th century and was initially carried out on the rampant prevalence of pests on european crops, when only simple evaluations of pests that may be carried on plants were performed, taking into account only the individual biological characteristics and individual risk factors of the plants and pests. Since the 30 s of the 20 th century, with the increasing awareness of pest risk, regional adaptability problems associated with pest colonization potential have come into focus; in the 70-80 s of the 20 th century, the research attention is turned to the evaluation of the comprehensive factors such as pest introduction and diffusion possibility, potential economic influence and environmental influence; after the 90 s of the 20 th century, pest risk analysis gradually entered the standardization phase. In order to coordinate pest risk analysis of countries in the world, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)/International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC) of the United nations set pest risk analysis criteria and quarantine pest risk analysis standards. The pest risk analysis work performed in various countries has been mainly based on qualitative analysis methods, and the related quantitative analysis is still in the trial stage.
The leaf eating pests are the pests which take leaves as food and are mainly harmful to healthy plants, and the pests take the larvae to eat the leaves, often bite into gaps or only leave veins, even eat completely, and are the main pests which are harmful to agriculture and forestry production at present. The main characteristic of the occurrence of the leaf eating insect pests is that the population density is large and concentrated, and once the leaf eating insect pests occur in agricultural production, the large-area yield reduction of crops is often caused, so that farmers suffer great economic losses. In view of the great harmfulness of such agricultural insect pests, there is a need to enhance the research on pest risk prevention and control to reduce the incidence and degree of pest damage.
At present, the investigation period on the distribution and the hazard degree of the pests in relevant national departments or provincial and municipal scales is long, the timeliness is not enough, and the data integration level is not high. And although the field survey is detailed, the area representativeness is not enough, and the popularization and the application are not easy. Therefore, a risk assessment method aiming at leaf-eating agricultural insect pests is urgently needed, and the purpose of forecasting and preventing is preliminarily realized so as to reduce the harmfulness of the agricultural insect pests.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a risk assessment technology for agricultural insect damage, and provides a technical support for effectively developing prevention, control and management of pest disasters.
The invention discloses a method for evaluating the risk of leaf-eating agricultural insect pests, which comprises the following steps:
step 1, establishing a risk assessment model formula: r ═ D × E × P;
wherein R: pest disaster risk; d: the destructive power of the disaster-causing factor; e: exposure in biological disaster-causing factors; p: pregnant disaster environment.
And 2, selecting a risk area to be evaluated, and calculating the exposure degree in the biological disaster factors.
Step 2.1, respectively counting the seeding area in the current year, the maximum seeding area in the last 20 years and the minimum seeding area in the last 20 years in the risk area to be evaluated, and calculating according to the following formula:
cr is the crop sowing area index, and the corresponding standard value Cr is obtained by looking up the calculated Cr valueSign board。
Table 1 standard table for dividing index of crop sowing area
Step 2.2, respectively counting the estimated grain yield in the current year, the maximum grain total yield in the last 20 years and the minimum grain total yield in the last 20 years in the risk area to be evaluated, and calculating according to the following formula:
gr is grain yield index, and the corresponding standard value Gr is obtained by looking up the Gr value obtained by calculationSign board，
TABLE 2 Total grain yield index division standard table
According to the formula E ═ CrSign board+GrSign board) And/2, calculating the exposure E in the biological disaster factors.
Step 3, calculating the destructive power of the disaster-causing factors;
step 3.1 select N sampling squares in the risk area to be evaluated, the area of each square is 1m2The sum of the areas of the N sampling samples accounts for 0.5-1.0% of the total area of the risk area to be evaluated.
And 3.2, generating indexes of the leaf-eating pests.
Counting the plants in all the selected samples in the risk area to be evaluated, recording the total number as the total number of the investigated crop plants, counting the number of the pest-damaged crop plants, and calculating according to a formula.
Oc ═ 100% (number of pest-infested crop plants/total number of investigated crop plants) × 100%
And Oc is the incidence index of the defoliating pests.
Looking up the Oc value obtained by calculation to obtain the occurrence level OcTake place of，
Table 3 standard table for grading pest occurrence
And 3.3, the harm index of the leaf-eating pests.
Selecting 3-5 diseased plant farmland crops in each sample prescription respectively, taking all the selected diseased plant farmland crops as diseased plant samples, taking healthy leaves and diseased leaves with equal quantity on the diseased plant samples, and scanning and summing by using a leaf area meter to obtain the total leaf area of the healthy leaves and the total leaf area of the diseased leaves.
Calculating according to a formula:
da is the harm index of the defoliating pests;
looking up the Da value obtained by calculation to obtain the hazard level DaHarm of，
TABLE 4 Pest hazard classification standard table
And 3.4, the single plant yield loss rate caused by insect pests.
Respectively selecting 3-5 diseased farmland crops and 3-5 non-damaged farmland crops in each sample, harvesting each selected crop, recording the harvested crop amount, respectively calculating the average crop amount of the diseased farmland crops and the average crop amount of the non-damaged farmland crops according to the following formula:
lo is the rate of single plant yield loss due to insect pest.
Looking up the Lo value obtained by calculation to obtain the hazard level LoLoss of power，
TABLE 5 Standard Table for grading of loss rate of yield per plant
Step 3.5, according to formula D ═ c (Oc)Take place of+DaHarm of+LoLoss of power) And/3, calculating to obtain the destructive power D of the disaster-causing factor.
And 4, calculating the pregnant disaster environment.
Recording the forecast daily average air temperature Te, the forecast daily precipitation Pr, the forecast daily relative humidity Hu and the forecast daily average wind speed Wi in the time period to be evaluated.
TABLE 6 Meteorological condition grade division table for influencing insect pest occurrence
According to the intervals of forecast daily average air temperature Te, forecast daily precipitation Pr, forecast daily relative humidity Hu and forecast daily average wind speed Wi, the table look-up respectively obtains the corresponding grades, and the grades are recorded as air temperature grades TeGradeDegree of precipitation PrGradeHumidity level HuGradeWind speed class WiGrade。
According to the formula P ═ 0.3 × TeGrade+0.3×HuGrade+0.2×PrGrade+0.2×WiGradeAnd calculating to obtain a pregnant disaster meteorological risk value P.
And 5, substituting the data obtained in the steps 2,3 and 4 into a formula R which is DxE multiplied by P, and calculating the pest disaster risk R.
And judging the state of the pest disaster risk according to the calculated R, wherein R >80 is in a high risk state, R <40 is in a low risk state, and R ═ 40,80 is in a medium risk state. According to the risk degree, the risk countermeasures to be taken can be determined, and the loss caused by insect damage is effectively reduced.
The technical scheme of the invention has the following beneficial effects.
Pest occurrence risk assessment is believed to be useful in predicting the adverse effects of future pest occurrences or in assessing the likelihood of pest occurrences caused by certain factors in the past. According to the method, through field investigation, sampling and analysis of disaster-causing elements, the occurrence area and the occurrence condition of the insect pests can be preliminarily determined, whether the pregnant disaster environment is suitable for insect situation development or not is combined, whether the supporting body supports large-area occurrence of the insect pests or not is combined, and the development dynamics of the insect pests is estimated. And finally determining different risk grades of the insect pests through the judgment of the risk area and the calculation of the risk grades. In the process of verifying the method, the discovery that when past data are used for verification, whether the high-risk areas of the pests are evaluated at the level of villages and towns or at the level of cities or cities, the pregnancy environment of the high-risk areas of the pests determined by the method is suitable for the occurrence and development of the pests. Further looking up the relevant data of pest control and finding out that the area is higher in pest occurrence grade and disaster damage degree. The method can accurately judge the occurrence and development trend and the damage influence degree of the insect pests.
The method can help relevant plant protection departments to know and predict the influence factors of insect pest occurrence, and is beneficial to decision making of insect pest control. Before the insect damage is possibly exploded, according to a risk evaluation result, scientific and effective measures are taken in time for areas with higher risk to control the insect situation, and the disaster loss is reduced to the minimum.
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FIG. 1 is a model diagram of the method for evaluating the risk of foliar agricultural insect damage according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
The method for evaluating the risk of the leaf-eating agricultural insect pests comprises the following steps:
the invention discloses a method for evaluating the risk of leaf-eating agricultural insect pests, which comprises the following steps:
step 1, establishing a risk assessment model formula: r ═ D × E × P;
wherein R: pest disaster risk; d: the destructive power of the disaster-causing factor; e: exposure in biological disaster-causing factors; p: pregnant disaster environment.
And 2, selecting a risk area to be evaluated, and calculating the exposure degree in the biological disaster factors.
Step 2.1, respectively counting the seeding area in the current year, the maximum seeding area in the last 20 years and the minimum seeding area in the last 20 years in the risk area to be evaluated, and calculating according to the following formula:
cr is the crop sowing area index, and the corresponding standard value Cr is obtained by looking up the calculated Cr valueSign board。
Table 1 standard table for dividing index of crop sowing area
Step 2.2, respectively counting the estimated grain yield in the current year, the maximum grain total yield in the last 20 years and the minimum grain total yield in the last 20 years in the risk area to be evaluated, and calculating according to the following formula:
gr is grain yield index, and the corresponding standard value Gr is obtained by looking up the Gr value obtained by calculationSign board，
TABLE 2 Total grain yield index division standard table
According to the formula E ═ CrSign board+GrSign board) And/2, calculating the exposure E in the biological disaster factors.
Step 3, calculating the destructive power of the disaster-causing factors;
step 3.1 select N sampling squares in the risk area to be evaluated, the area of each square is 1m2The sum of the areas of the N sampling samples accounts for 0.5-1.0% of the total area of the risk area to be evaluated.
And 3.2, generating indexes of the leaf-eating pests.
Counting the plants in all the selected samples in the risk area to be evaluated, recording the total number as the total number of the investigated crop plants, counting the number of the pest-damaged crop plants, and calculating according to a formula.
Oc ═ 100% (number of pest-infested crop plants/total number of investigated crop plants) × 100%
And Oc is the incidence index of the defoliating pests.
Looking up the Oc value obtained by calculation to obtain the occurrence level OcTake place of，
Table 3 standard table for grading pest occurrence
And 3.3, the harm index of the leaf-eating pests.
Selecting 3-5 diseased plant farmland crops in each sample prescription respectively, taking all the selected diseased plant farmland crops as diseased plant samples, taking healthy leaves and diseased leaves with equal quantity on the diseased plant samples, and scanning and summing by using a leaf area meter to obtain the total leaf area of the healthy leaves and the total leaf area of the diseased leaves.
Calculating according to a formula:
da is the harm index of the defoliating pests;
looking up the Da value obtained by calculation to obtain the hazardClass DaHarm of，
TABLE 4 Pest hazard classification standard table
And 3.4, the single plant yield loss rate caused by insect pests.
Respectively selecting 3-5 diseased farmland crops and 3-5 non-damaged farmland crops in each sample, harvesting each selected crop, recording the harvested crop amount, respectively calculating the average crop amount of the diseased farmland crops and the average crop amount of the non-damaged farmland crops according to the following formula:
lo is the rate of single plant yield loss due to insect pest.
Looking up the Lo value obtained by calculation to obtain the hazard level LoLoss of power，
TABLE 5 Standard Table for grading of loss rate of yield per plant
Step 3.5, according to formula D ═ c (Oc)Take place of+DaHarm of+LoLoss of power) And/3, calculating to obtain the destructive power D of the disaster-causing factor.
And 4, calculating the pregnant disaster environment.
Recording the forecast daily average air temperature Te, the forecast daily precipitation Pr, the forecast daily relative humidity Hu and the forecast daily average wind speed Wi in the time period to be evaluated.
TABLE 6 Meteorological condition grade division table for influencing insect pest occurrence
According to the intervals of forecast daily average air temperature Te, forecast daily precipitation Pr, forecast daily relative humidity Hu and forecast daily average wind speed Wi, the table look-up respectively obtains the corresponding grades, and the grades are recorded as air temperature grades TeGradeDegree of precipitation PrGradeHumidity level HuGradeWind speed class WiGrade。
According to the formula P ═ 0.3 × TeGrade+0.3×HuGrade+0.2×PrGrade+0.2×WiGradeAnd calculating to obtain a pregnant disaster meteorological risk value P.
And 5, substituting the data obtained in the steps 2,3 and 4 into a formula R which is DxE multiplied by P, and calculating the pest disaster risk R.
Claims (1)
1. A method for evaluating the risk of leaf-eating agricultural insect pests is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1, establishing a risk assessment model formula: r ═ D × E × P;
wherein R: pest disaster risk; d: the destructive power of the disaster-causing factor; e: exposure in biological disaster-causing factors; p: the environment of the pregnant woman in a disaster,
step 2, selecting a risk area to be evaluated, and calculating the exposure degree in the biological disaster factors
Step 2.1, respectively counting the seeding area in the current year, the maximum seeding area in the last 20 years and the minimum seeding area in the last 20 years in the risk area to be evaluated, and calculating according to the following formula:
cr is the crop sowing area index, and a corresponding standard value Cr is obtained according to a Cr value corresponding intervalSign board，
When Cr is less than or equal to 20%, the corresponding description is small, in this time, the notation CrSign board＝1，
When the content is 20 percent<When Cr is less than or equal to 40%, the corresponding description is smaller, at this time, the notation CrSign board＝2，
When the content is 40 percent<When Cr is less than or equal to 60%, the corresponding description is medium, and the symbol is recorded at this timeCrSign board＝3，
When the content is 60 percent<When Cr is less than or equal to 80%, the corresponding description is larger, and the notation at this time is CrSign board＝4，
When the content is 80 percent<When Cr is present, the corresponding description is large, and at this time, Cr is recordedSign board＝5；
Step 2.2, respectively counting the estimated grain yield in the current year, the maximum grain total yield in the last 20 years and the minimum grain total yield in the last 20 years in the risk area to be evaluated, and calculating according to the following formula:
gr is the grain yield index, and a corresponding standard value Gr is obtained according to a corresponding range of the Gr valueSign board，
When Gr is less than or equal to 20%, the corresponding description is low, in this case, the notation is CrSign board＝1，
When the content is 20 percent<When Gr is less than or equal to 40%, the corresponding description is lower, in this case, the notation CrSign board＝2，
When the content is 40 percent<When Gr is less than or equal to 60%, the corresponding description is medium, and the notation at this time is CrSign board＝3，
When the content is 60 percent<When Gr is less than or equal to 80%, the corresponding description is higher, in this time, the notation CrSign board＝4，
When the content is 80 percent<Gr, high is said to correspond to, this time, CrSign board＝5；
According to the formula E ═ CrSign board+GrSign board) Calculating to obtain the exposure E in the biological disaster factors;
step 3, calculating the destructive power of the disaster-causing factors;
step 3.1 select N sampling squares in the risk area to be evaluated, the area of each square is 1m2The sum of the areas of the N sampling samples accounts for 0.5 to 1.0 percent of the total area of the risk area to be evaluated;
step 3.2, generating indexes of the leaf-eating pests;
counting the plants in all the selected samples in the risk area to be evaluated, recording the total number as the total number of the investigated crop plants, counting the number of the pest-damaged crop plants, and calculating according to a formula:
oc ═ 100% (number of pest-infested crop plants/total number of investigated crop plants) × 100%
Oc is the incidence index of the defoliating pests;
obtaining the occurrence level Oc according to the corresponding interval of the Oc valueTake place of，
When the content of Oc is less than or equal to 15%, the occurrence severity is considered to be mild, and the record of Oc is givenTake place of＝1，
When the content is 15 percent<When the Oc is less than or equal to 30 percent, the occurrence severity is considered to be slightly mild, and the Oc is recorded at the momentTake place of＝2，
When the content is 30 percent<When the Oc is less than or equal to 50%, the occurrence severity is considered to be moderate, and the Oc is recordedTake place of＝3，
When the content is 50 percent<When the Oc is less than or equal to 80 percent, the occurrence severity is considered to be overweight, and the Oc is recorded at the momentTake place of＝4，
When the content is 80 percent<When Oc occurs, the severity of the occurrence is considered to be large, and then Oc is recordedTake place of＝5；
Step 3.3, index of damage of defoliating pests
Respectively selecting 3-5 diseased farmland crops in each sample prescription, taking all the selected diseased farmland crops as diseased plant samples, taking healthy leaves and diseased leaves with equal quantity on the diseased plant samples, scanning and summing by using a leaf area meter to obtain the total leaf area of the healthy leaves and the total leaf area of the diseased leaves,
calculating according to a formula:
da is the harm index of the defoliating pests;
obtaining the hazard level Da according to the corresponding interval of the Da valueHarm of，
When Da is 0, the serious degree of the harm is disease-free, and record DaHarm of＝1，
When 0 is present<When Da is less than or equal to 25%, the serious degree of damage is that the leaf spots are small and small, and the record of Da isHarm of＝2，
When the content is 25 percent<When Da is less than or equal to 50%, the severity of the damage is small, more or less leaf spots, and the record of DaHarm of＝3，
When the content is 50 percent<When Da is less than or equal to 75%, the serious degree of the damage is that the leaf lesions are large and many, and the record indicates that DaHarm of＝4，
When it is 75%<When Da, the severity of the disease is withered leaves, and the disease is recordedHarm of＝5，
Step 3.4, yield loss rate of single plant caused by insect pest
Respectively selecting 3-5 diseased farmland crops and 3-5 non-damaged farmland crops in each sample, harvesting each selected crop, recording the harvested crop amount, respectively calculating the average crop amount of the diseased farmland crops and the average crop amount of the non-damaged farmland crops according to the following formula:
lo is the single plant yield loss rate caused by insect pests;
obtaining the hazard level Lo according to the corresponding interval of the Lo valueLoss of power，
When Lo is less than or equal to 15%, the loss severity is light loss, and Lo is recordedLoss of power＝1，
When the content is 15 percent<When Lo is less than or equal to 30%, the loss severity is light loss, and Lo is recordedLoss of power＝2，
When the content is 30 percent<When Lo is less than or equal to 50%, the loss severity is moderate loss, and Lo is recordedLoss of power＝3，
When the content is 50 percent<When Lo is less than or equal to 80%, the loss severity is the weight loss, and Lo is recordedLoss of power＝4，
When the content is 80 percent<Lo, the loss severity is large, and Lo is recordedLoss of power＝5，
Step 3.5, according to formula D ═ c (Oc)Take place of+DaHarm of+LoLoss of power) Calculating to obtain the destructive power D of the disaster-causing factor;
step 4, calculating a pregnant disaster environment;
recording the forecast daily average air temperature Te, the forecast daily precipitation Pr, the forecast daily relative humidity Hu and the forecast daily average wind speed Wi in the time period to be evaluated, respectively obtaining corresponding grades according to the intervals of the forecast daily average air temperature Te, the forecast daily precipitation Pr, the forecast daily relative humidity Hu and the forecast daily average wind speed Wi, and recording the grades as air temperature grades TeGradeDegree of precipitation PrGradeHumidity level HuGradeWind speed class WiGrade；
The weather conditions are considered to be extremely unfavorable, and the situation that the insect disaster occurrence possibility is basically not occurred is as follows: te (Te)<4 or>At 36 ℃, record TeGrade＝1，Pr<At 2mm, record PrGrade＝1，Hu<At 30%, remember HuGrade＝1，Wi<When 1m/s, note WiGrade＝1；
The weather conditions are considered to be unfavorable, and the situation that the possibility of insect damage is extremely rare is: te interval is [4,12 ] or (33, 36)]At DEG C, record TeGradeWhen the interval of Pr is 2, 5mm, the reference is PrGradeWhen the Hu interval is [30, 50)% when 2, Hu is recordedGradeWhen the Wi interval is 2,3 m/s, the mark WiGrade＝2；
The weather conditions are considered to be general, and the case that the possibility of insect damage occurrence is mild amount occurrence is as follows: te interval is [12,20 ] or (30, 33)]At DEG C, record TeGradeWhen the interval of Pr is [5,10) mm, 3, the symbol Pr is recordedGradeWhen the Hu interval is 3 and [50, 75)%, Hu is recordedGradeWhen the Wi interval is 3,5 m/s, the mark WiGrade＝3；
The weather conditions are considered to be favorable, and the case that the probability of insect disaster is moderate is: te interval is [20,24 ] or (28, 30)]At DEG C, record TeGradeWhen the interval of Pr is [10,25) mm, 4, the notation of Pr isGradeWhen the Hu interval is [75, 90)% 4, Hu is recordedGradeWhen the Wi interval is [5,10) m/s, the Wi is recorded as 4Grade＝4；
The weather conditions are considered to be extremely favorable, and the case that the insect disaster occurrence probability is severe is as follows: te interval is [24,28]At DEG C, record TeGradeWhen Pr is greater than 25mm, 5, remember PrGradeWhen Hu is greater than 90%, Hu is recordedGradeWhen Wi is more than 10m/s, note WiGrade＝5；
According to the formula P ═ 0.3 × TeGrade+0.3×HuGrade+0.2×PrGrade+0.2×WiGradeCalculating to obtain a pregnant disaster meteorological risk value P,
and 5, substituting the data obtained in the steps 2,3 and 4 into a formula R which is DxE multiplied by P, and calculating the pest disaster risk R.
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| WO2020008777A1 (en) * | 2018-07-02 | 2020-01-09 | ボッシュ株式会社 | Information processing device, information processing system, and program |
| CN109147282B (en) * | 2018-07-03 | 2020-10-16 | 华南农业大学 | Intelligent rice field pest grade forecasting system and forecasting method |
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