CN106910089A - A kind of Forecasting Methodology and forecasting system of footwear life cycle - Google Patents
A kind of Forecasting Methodology and forecasting system of footwear life cycle Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention discloses a kind of Forecasting Methodology and forecasting system of footwear life cycle, and the Forecasting Methodology includes：By RFID card reader and the RFID label tag being arranged on footwear, concern number of times of the consumer to footwear in a cycle is determined；The accumulative attention rate in the correspondence cycle is determined according to the concern number of times in multiple different cycles；Corresponding attention rate conversion ratio is determined according to each accumulative attention rate；Attention rate conversion ratio according to each footwear determines the accumulative attention rate conversion ratio in the correspondence cycle；By each accumulative attention rate and each accumulative attention rate conversion ratio by being fitted each parameter determined in Gomperz growth curves models and BASS models；Predict the life cycle and sales volume of footwear.Setting is matched with RFID label tag by RFID card reader, concern number of times of the collection consumer to footwear, metrization will be paid close attention to, with each BASS parameter in each growth parameter(s) and BASS models for determining Gomperz growth curves models, so as to realize the Accurate Prediction to footwear life cycle and sales volume.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of shoe life cycle prediction, in particular to a method and a system for predicting the life cycle of a shoe product.
Background
The Product Life Cycle (Product Life Cycle) refers to the Life course of a Product consisting of four periods, namely an input period, a growth period, a maturation period and a decline period. The period of time that an article of footwear is recognized and accepted in the marketplace is also the period of time that consumers have come to, develop and agree on the product and have the act of consuming it; also, market feedback is particularly important in this phase. It is important to study the big data of market feedback in this process.
The current life cycle research methods are:
(1) analogy method
The analogy method is also called class analogy method, each stage of the life cycle of a product is defined by comparing and analyzing life cycle rules of similar products or related products, and the method is a commonly used judgment method for enterprises. The meaning of similar products is very extensive, and the products comprise the same type of products, the same series of products, the products of the next generation, the substitutes and the complements, and the development and change tendency of some products at abroad is compared with the similar products at home, and the like.
(2) Sales growth rate method
The sales growth rate method is a method for determining the life cycle stage of a product at a rate of increasing or decreasing sales at a certain period. Wherein,
sales growth rate (sales volume in this month-sales volume in last month)/sales volume in last month
Generally, a product sales growth rate of less than 10% may be considered a product in the lead-in period; the sales growth rate is more than 10 percent, and the method belongs to the growth stage; the sales growth rate of the product is between 0 and 10 percent, and the mature period is the time when the sales growth amplitude tends to be fatigued and soft; a product sales growth rate less than zero may be considered in the decline period.
(3) Method of prevalence
The popularity method is to judge each stage of the life cycle of a product according to the average popularity of the product in a certain area population or a family, and mainly aims at durable consumer goods. Because the durable consumer goods generally refer to consumer goods with higher value and longer service life, the quantity of the durable consumer goods required by people is limited, which is not as much as the consumer goods in daily life and has high purchasing frequency. The popularity of durable consumer products is generally expressed in terms of how many of the product each hundred households or each hundred people possess. Generally, according to empirical data, when the prevalence rate is within 5 percent, the lead-in period is used, when the prevalence rate is within 5 percent, the growth early period is used, when the prevalence rate is within 50 percent to 80 percent, the growth late period is used, when the prevalence rate is within 80 percent to 90 percent, the maturation period is used, and when the prevalence rate is more than 90 percent, the decline period is gradually shifted into.
(4) Mathematical model method
Mathematical modeling refers to a method of fitting or inferring stages of the product's life cycle by building a mathematical model. The gompertz curve method is to use an S-shaped growth curve (gompertz curve) to approximate the typical state curve of the life cycle of the product, thereby identifying the life cycle of the product [41 ]. The mathematical model of the gompertz growth curve is:
wherein: y-t < th > index value; t-time variable; K. a and b are growth parameters respectively.
The parameters of b, lga, lgk can be estimated by observing the values. According to the change characteristics of the S curve and by utilizing the estimated values of the growth parameters a and b, the theoretical estimation of the life cycle stage of the product can be realized. lga > 0; b >1, in the lead-in period of the product life cycle; lga <0, 0< b <1, at the growth stage of the product lifecycle; lga < 0; b >1, in the maturation phase of the product life cycle; lga >0, 0< b <1, in the decline phase of the product life cycle.
(5) Logiti c-regression model
Wherein, the parameter K represents the upper line of Yt, the parameter a describes the position of the curve, the parameter b is used for controlling the shape of the curve, and the parameter t represents the time. The model has the same evolution principle as the Gompertz model, so that the curve has obvious symmetry, is suitable for researching the life cycle of a durable product, can accurately predict the product in the mature period and know the market demand and the sales saturation of the product at the moment, but is not ideal for the prediction result in the mature period.
(6) BASS model
The BASS model is constructed through a simple model, so that the diffusion process of the initial purchase (no repeated purchase) of a new product in a user group is accurately described, and the sales volume of the product at each time is predicted. However, there are many different perspectives in improving market potential m, and thus an improved BASS model was derived.
Wherein, N (t) is the vertical axis representing the accumulated sales, t determines the time, M, p and q are BASS parameters, M is the number of potential people purchasing products, p is an innovation coefficient, q is a simulation coefficient, the value range p is more than 0, and q is more than 0.
The evaluation of new products of the shoes is an important link for the lead-in period of the life cycle of the products, is also a feedback of the attention of the market to the new products, and is closely related to the design and development of the products. Traditional research is usually carried out by taking the sales volume or the sales growth rate of the product as a feedback index after the research product is put on the market. In fact, the life cycle of an article of footwear is a process of transferring demand that varies with changes in consumer demand preferences. Due to the particularity of footwear products, sales and sales growth rates do not completely and accurately reflect changes in product demand; meanwhile, the life cycle of the shoes is influenced by various external factors such as season change, trend, science and technology and the like, the change cycle of the shoes cannot be defined according to the sales volume and the sales volume increase rate of the shoes, but the current life cycle research method determines the numerical value of a key parameter based on the sales volume of the products, so that the prediction accuracy of the shoe products is poor, and the reference significance is not large.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a method and a system for predicting the life cycle of a shoe product, which can improve the accuracy of predicting the shoe product.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention provides the following scheme:
a method of predicting a life cycle of an article of footwear, the method comprising:
determining the attention frequency of a consumer to the footwear product in a period through an RFID card reader and an RFID tag arranged on the footwear product;
determining the accumulated attention degree in the corresponding period according to the attention times of consumers to the footwear products in a plurality of different periods;
determining the attention conversion rate of the footwear products in the corresponding period according to the accumulated attention;
determining the cumulative attention conversion rate in the corresponding period according to the attention conversion rate of each footwear product;
determining each growth parameter of a Gomperz growth curve model and each BASS parameter in the BASS model by fitting each accumulated attention and each conversion rate of the accumulated attention;
substituting each of the growth parameters into the Gomperz growth curve model to predict a life cycle of the footwear product; substituting each of the BASS parameters into the BASS model predicts sales of the footwear.
Optionally, the acquiring the number of times of attention of the consumer to the footwear product in one period specifically includes:
after a consumer picks up the footwear product, an RFID tag on the footwear product is disengaged from a coupling area with the RFID tag and an RFID reader, such that the RFID reader is activated;
after the RFID card reader is activated, recording the attention condition of a consumer to the footwear product once, and recovering a silent state;
repeatedly activating the RFID card reader within a set period, and recording the multiple attention situations of a consumer to the footwear products within one period;
determining the number of times the consumer pays attention to the footwear product during the period according to the number of times the consumer pays attention to the footwear product during the period.
Optionally, the concern includes a time when the article of footwear is picked up and a time when it is put down;
the specific method of determining the number of times a consumer has focused on the footwear product during the cycle includes:
calculating a time of interest of a consumer for the footwear product based on a time the footwear product was picked up and a time the footwear product was put down;
comparing the attention time with a time threshold, if the attention time is larger than the time threshold, the attention is effectively paid and reserved; otherwise, the focus is invalid and deleted;
accumulating all valid concerns over a period yields the number of consumer concerns over the footwear product over the period.
Optionally, the cumulative attention AA in the corresponding period is determined according to the following formulak：
Wherein, I represents the number of cycles in a set time period, I represents the cycle number, I is 1,2iIndicating the number of attention counts in the ith cycle.
Optionally, the attention conversion rate TR of said footwear product during the corresponding cycle is determined according to the following formulak：
TRk＝Sk/AAk*100％ (2)；
Wherein S iskRepresenting the amount of sales of said footwear product in the k-th cycle.
Optionally, the cumulative attention conversion rate TRA in the corresponding period is determined according to the following formulak：
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention provides the following scheme:
a system for predicting a life cycle of an article of footwear, the system comprising:
an RFID tag disposed on the article of footwear;
the RFID reader is arranged corresponding to the RFID tag and used for recording the attention condition of the footwear product by a consumer;
the data acquisition box is in wireless connection with the RFID card reader and is used for acquiring the attention condition of the shoe product by a consumer from the RFID card reader;
the computer is connected with the data acquisition box and is used for determining the accumulated attention degree in the corresponding period according to the attention times of consumers to the footwear products in a plurality of different periods; determining attention conversion rate of the footwear products in the corresponding period according to the accumulated attention; determining the cumulative attention conversion rate in the corresponding period according to the attention conversion rate of each footwear product; determining each growth parameter of a Gomperz growth curve model and each BASS parameter in the BASS model by fitting each accumulated attention and each conversion rate of the accumulated attention; substituting each of the growth parameters into the Gomperz growth curve model to predict a life cycle of the footwear product; substituting each of the BASS parameters into the BASS model predicts sales of the footwear.
Optionally, the prediction system includes:
and the cloud database is connected with the computer and is used for storing the predicted life cycle and sales volume of the footwear product.
Optionally, the step of using the RFID reader to record the attention situation of the footwear product by the consumer specifically includes:
the RFID reader is in a silent state in a coupling area formed by the RFID tag and the RFID reader, after a consumer takes up the footwear product, the RFID tag on the footwear product is separated from the coupling area, the RFID reader is activated, the attention condition of the consumer to the footwear product is recorded once, and the silent state is returned;
and repeatedly activating the RFID card reader within a set period, and recording the attention of the consumer to the footwear product for a plurality of times within one period.
Optionally, the RFID tag is attached to a shoe model of the footwear product.
According to the specific embodiment provided by the invention, the invention discloses the following technical effects:
according to the prediction method and the prediction system for the life cycle of the footwear product, disclosed by the invention, the RFID card reader and the RFID tag are matched, the times of attention of consumers to the footwear product are collected, the attention is quantized, and each growth parameter of the Gomperz growth curve model and each BASS parameter in the BASS model are determined, so that the life cycle and the sales volume of the footwear product are accurately predicted.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings needed to be used in the embodiments will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art to obtain other drawings without inventive exercise.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method of predicting a life cycle of an article of footwear according to the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a system for predicting the life cycle of an article of footwear according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
The invention aims to provide a method and a system for predicting the life cycle of a shoe product.
In order to make the aforementioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention comprehensible, embodiments accompanied with figures are described in further detail below.
As shown in FIG. 1, the method for predicting the life cycle of a footwear product of the present invention comprises:
step 100: the number of times of attention of a consumer to the footwear product in a period is determined through an RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) card reader and an RFID tag arranged on the footwear product.
Step 200: and determining the accumulated attention degree in the corresponding period according to the attention times of the consumers to the footwear products in a plurality of different periods.
Step 300: and determining the attention conversion rate of the footwear products in the corresponding period according to the accumulated attention.
Step 400: and determining the accumulated attention conversion rate in the corresponding period according to the attention conversion rate of each footwear product.
Step 500: and determining each growth parameter of the Gomperz growth curve model and each BASS parameter in the BASS model by fitting each accumulated attention and each conversion rate of the accumulated attention.
Step 600: substituting each of the growth parameters into the Gomperz growth curve model to predict a life cycle of the footwear product; substituting each of the BASS parameters into the BASS model predicts sales of the footwear.
In step 100, the acquiring the number of times of attention of the consumer to the footwear product in a period specifically includes:
step 110: after the consumer picks up the footwear product, the RFID tag on the footwear product is disengaged from the coupling area with the RFID tag and the RFID reader, causing the RFID reader to be activated.
Step 120: and after the RFID card reader is activated, recording the attention condition of a consumer to the footwear product once, and recovering the silent state.
Step 130: and repeatedly activating the RFID card reader within a set period, and recording the attention of the consumer to the footwear product for a plurality of times within one period.
Step 140: determining the number of times the consumer pays attention to the footwear product during the period according to the number of times the consumer pays attention to the footwear product during the period. Wherein the concerns include a time the article of footwear was picked up and a time the article of footwear was dropped.
In order to avoid that the RFID card reader is activated to acquire wrong information due to misoperation of store staff or accidental touch of a consumer, an activation signal is set to keep for a set time before data recording is carried out. In particular, the specific method of determining the number of times that a consumer has focused on the footwear product during the cycle includes: calculating a time of interest of a consumer for the footwear product based on a time the footwear product was picked up and a time the footwear product was put down; comparing the attention time with a time threshold, if the attention time is larger than the time threshold, the attention is effectively paid and reserved; otherwise, the focus is invalid and deleted; accumulating all valid concerns over a period yields the number of consumer concerns over the footwear product over the period.
Determining the cumulative attention AA in the corresponding period according to the following formulak：
Wherein, I represents the number of cycles in a set time period, I represents the cycle number, I is 1,2iIndicating the number of attention counts in the ith cycle.
Determining a rate of change of attention TR of said footwear product over a corresponding period according to the following formulak：
TRk＝Sk/AAk*100％ (2)；
Wherein S iskRepresenting the amount of sales of said footwear product in the k-th cycle.
Determining the cumulative attention conversion rate TRA in the corresponding period according to the following formulak：
An embodiment will be described in detail below.
For a certain style of footwear (shown in table 1, women's sandals), sales volume and attention information in three months are calculated from the shelf, the time is accumulated by one week, and finally, the total of 12 accumulated sales volumes and attention is obtained. The life cycle method is modeled by the three methods and the improved methods.
Gomperz improvement method
The traditional Gomperz model was first refined, using SGompez and introducing TR data.
Will be provided withInstead, it is changed into
And calculating the data in the attached table, wherein the result of the SGompez model is as follows:
TRt＝3.5e-e(-3.4(x-7.0))(5)。
② traditional BASS model
The traditional BASS model (i.e.,) In which M represents a potential purchaser, and TAR is substituted for M, ginsengAnd calculating the life cycle model, and obtaining the following correction model.
Correction model based on BASS curve method:
where TRA is the rate of interest accumulation, N (t) is the accumulated sales forecast, t is time, and p (innovation coefficient) and q (simulation coefficient) are curve control parameters. Fitting the data in table 1 by using a nonlinear regression model of SPSS software to obtain: the p starting value is 0.3 and the q starting value is 0.8. The final model values are:
TABLE 1 raw data
In addition, the invention also provides a system for predicting the life cycle of the footwear product. As shown in fig. 2, the system for predicting the life cycle of the footwear product comprises a plurality of pairs of RFID tags and RFID readers which are arranged in a matching mode, a data acquisition box and a computer.
The RFID reader is arranged corresponding to the RFID tag and used for recording the attention condition of the footwear product by a consumer. Preferably, the RFID tag is attached to a shoe model of the footwear product.
The data acquisition box 1 is respectively in wireless connection with the RFID card readers and is used for acquiring the attention condition of the shoe product by the consumer from the RFID card readers. The computer 2 is connected with the data acquisition box 1 and is used for determining the accumulated attention degree in the corresponding period according to the attention times of consumers to the footwear products in a plurality of different periods; determining attention conversion rate of the footwear products in the corresponding period according to the accumulated attention; determining the cumulative attention conversion rate in the corresponding period according to the attention conversion rate of each footwear product; determining each growth parameter of a Gomperz growth curve model and each BASS parameter in the BASS model by fitting each accumulated attention and each conversion rate of the accumulated attention; substituting each of the growth parameters into the Gomperz growth curve model to predict a life cycle of the footwear product; substituting each of the BASS parameters into the BASS model predicts sales of the footwear.
The RFID reader is used for recording the attention situation of the footwear product by the consumer and specifically comprises the following steps: the RFID reader is in a silent state in a coupling area formed by the RFID tag and the RFID reader, after a consumer takes up the footwear product, the RFID tag on the footwear product is separated from the coupling area, the RFID reader is activated, the attention condition of the consumer to the footwear product is recorded once, and the silent state is returned; and repeatedly activating the RFID card reader within a set period, and recording the attention of the consumer to the footwear product for a plurality of times within one period.
The RFID label is called label for short, and the RFID card reader is called card reader for short. As shown in FIG. 2, for example, a consumer picks up a footwear product with a tag # 1 attached thereto, disengages the tag # 1 from the coupling area with the reader # 1, activates the reader # 1, records a consumer's attention to the footwear product, and reverts to a silent state. And repeatedly activating the card reader No. 1 in a set period, recording and caching the multiple concerns of the consumers on the footwear products in one period. Similarly, the condition of the cache data collected by the rest of the card readers is the same, and the description is omitted here.
The data acquisition box 1 is arranged at the end of the computer 2, and periodically reads data from each card reader and sends the data to the computer 2.
Preferably, the prediction system for the life cycle of the footwear product further comprises a cloud database 3, and the cloud database 3 is connected with the computer 2 and is used for storing the predicted life cycle and sales volume of the footwear product, so that the related personnel can conveniently inquire the life cycle and sales volume.
The embodiments in the present description are described in a progressive manner, each embodiment focuses on differences from other embodiments, and the same and similar parts among the embodiments are referred to each other.
The principles and embodiments of the present invention have been described herein using specific examples, which are provided only to help understand the method and the core concept of the present invention; meanwhile, for a person skilled in the art, according to the idea of the present invention, the specific embodiments and the application range may be changed. In view of the above, the present disclosure should not be construed as limiting the invention.
Claims (10)
1. A method of predicting a life cycle of an article of footwear, the method comprising:
determining the attention frequency of a consumer to the footwear product in a period through an RFID card reader and an RFID tag arranged on the footwear product;
determining the accumulated attention degree in the corresponding period according to the attention times of consumers to the footwear products in a plurality of different periods;
determining the attention conversion rate of the footwear products in the corresponding period according to the accumulated attention;
determining the cumulative attention conversion rate in the corresponding period according to the attention conversion rate of each footwear product;
determining each growth parameter of a Gomperz growth curve model and each BASS parameter in the BASS model by fitting each accumulated attention and each conversion rate of the accumulated attention;
substituting each of the growth parameters into the Gomperz growth curve model to predict a life cycle of the footwear product; substituting each of the BASS parameters into the BASS model predicts sales of the footwear.
2. The method for predicting the life cycle of a footwear product according to claim 1, wherein the obtaining the number of times a consumer pays attention to the footwear product in a cycle specifically comprises:
after a consumer picks up the footwear product, an RFID tag on the footwear product is disengaged from a coupling area with the RFID tag and an RFID reader, such that the RFID reader is activated;
after the RFID card reader is activated, recording the attention condition of a consumer to the footwear product once, and recovering a silent state;
repeatedly activating the RFID card reader within a set period, and recording the multiple attention situations of a consumer to the footwear products within one period;
determining the number of times the consumer pays attention to the footwear product during the period according to the number of times the consumer pays attention to the footwear product during the period.
3. The method of predicting a life cycle of an article of footwear according to claim 2, wherein the concerns include a time the article of footwear was picked up and a time the article of footwear was put down;
the specific method of determining the number of times a consumer has focused on the footwear product during the cycle includes:
calculating a time of interest of a consumer for the footwear product based on a time the footwear product was picked up and a time the footwear product was put down;
comparing the attention time with a time threshold, if the attention time is larger than the time threshold, the attention is effectively paid and reserved; otherwise, the focus is invalid and deleted;
accumulating all valid concerns over a period yields the number of consumer concerns over the footwear product over the period.
4. A method for predicting the life cycle of an article of footwear according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the cumulative attention AA during the corresponding cycle is determined according to the following formulak：
Wherein, I represents the number of cycles in a set time period, I represents the cycle number, I is 1,2iIndicating the number of attention counts in the ith cycle.
5. The method of predicting the life cycle of a footwear product according to claim 4, wherein the attention conversion rate TR of the footwear product in the corresponding cycle is determined according to the following formulak：
TRk＝Sk/AAk*100％ (2)；
Wherein S iskRepresenting the amount of sales of said footwear product in the k-th cycle.
6. The footwear product lifecycle of claim 5Is characterized in that the cumulative attention conversion rate TRA in the corresponding period is determined according to the following formulak：
7. A system for predicting a life cycle of an article of footwear, the system comprising:
an RFID tag disposed on the article of footwear;
the RFID reader is arranged corresponding to the RFID tag and used for recording the attention condition of the footwear product by a consumer;
the data acquisition box is in wireless connection with the RFID card reader and is used for acquiring the attention condition of the shoe product by a consumer from the RFID card reader;
the computer is connected with the data acquisition box and is used for determining the accumulated attention degree in the corresponding period according to the attention times of consumers to the footwear products in a plurality of different periods; determining attention conversion rate of the footwear products in the corresponding period according to the accumulated attention; determining the cumulative attention conversion rate in the corresponding period according to the attention conversion rate of each footwear product; determining each growth parameter of a Gomperz growth curve model and each BASS parameter in the BASS model by fitting each accumulated attention and each conversion rate of the accumulated attention; substituting each of the growth parameters into the Gomperz growth curve model to predict a life cycle of the footwear product; substituting each of the BASS parameters into the BASS model predicts sales of the footwear.
8. The system for predicting a life cycle of an article of footwear according to claim 7, wherein the prediction system comprises:
and the cloud database is connected with the computer and is used for storing the predicted life cycle and sales volume of the footwear product.
9. The system for predicting the life cycle of a footwear product according to claim 7, wherein the RFID reader configured to record the attention of the footwear product to the consumer specifically comprises:
the RFID reader is in a silent state in a coupling area formed by the RFID tag and the RFID reader, after a consumer takes up the footwear product, the RFID tag on the footwear product is separated from the coupling area, the RFID reader is activated, the attention condition of the consumer to the footwear product is recorded once, and the silent state is returned;
and repeatedly activating the RFID card reader within a set period, and recording the attention of the consumer to the footwear product for a plurality of times within one period.
10. The system for predicting the life cycle of a footwear product according to any one of claims 7 to 9, wherein said RFID tag is attached to a shoe model of said footwear product.
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