CN106815790A - A kind of geological disposal site preselects location integrated evaluating method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The present invention relates to a kind of geological disposal site pre-selection location integrated evaluating method.Methods described comprises the following steps：1) determine the index that the big factor in candidate location ten is evaluated, using fuzzy Delphi method organizes expert rationally scoring to evaluation index, carry out statistical analysis；2) for each evaluation index in candidate site, scored using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) organizes expert, and result is counted；3) according to statistics, judgment matrix is set up；4) policy setting factor of influence and cognitive fuzzy factor are introduced in judgment matrix, the expert opinion situation under various policy settings is simulated；5) judgment matrix is solved, and then solves the suitability scoring of each candidate site；6) statistics candidate site suitability ranking.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of radioactive waste disposal, and particularly relates to a comprehensive evaluation method for a pre-selection area of a geological disposal site.
Background
At present, the mainstream method recommended for geological disposal of high-level waste at home and abroad is geological disposal, and the primary work for realizing geological disposal is to complete screening of sites of the high-level geological disposal, so that the method is indispensable for comprehensive evaluation of pre-selected sections or sites of geological disposal, and is particularly important.
The high-level geological disposal concept of China adopts the principle of multiple barriers, and the artificial barriers comprise: waste bags (high level glass consolidated bodies or other high level waste bags), disposal containers, cushioning materials; natural barriers refer to the surrounding rock and its overburden where the disposal depot is located. It is important in the selection process how to make a reasonable overall evaluation of the pre-selected sections of the geological treatment site to select the appropriate treatment site.
Disclosure of Invention
The technology provided by the invention aims to comprehensively evaluate a pre-selected section of a geological disposal site so as to screen a proper disposal site.
The method considers the ambiguity of human cognition and the influence of decision environment on decision results, and provides a method combining fuzzy mathematics and hierarchical analysis according to the high-level geological disposal site selection guide rule so as to complete the comprehensive evaluation of the preselected region.
According to the high-level geological disposal site selection guide rule, site survey and site characteristic survey contents comprise: geological conditions, future natural changes, hydrogeology, geochemistry, events caused by human activities, construction conditions and engineering conditions, environmental conservation, land utilization, waste transportation, social impact ten aspects.
The surrounding rock in geological conditions should have favorable geometric, physical and chemical properties to accommodate disposal facilities, retarding migration of radionuclides to the surface environment. The depth and dimensions of the surrounding rock should be sufficient to accommodate the disposal facility. The mechanical properties of the surrounding rock should facilitate safe construction, operation and closure of the disposal facility, facilitating the assurance of stability of the geological barrier around the disposal facility. For waste that generates heat, the thermal and thermodynamic properties of the surrounding rock also need to be considered.
The impact of future geodynamic phenomena (such as climate change, new structure, earthquakes, volcanic activity, diapir) on the surrounding rock should not compromise the containment and isolation capabilities of the entire disposal system to an unacceptable degree. The hydrogeological nature and conditions of the groundwater environment should be such that groundwater flow is limited to the extent of the disposal facility and should support safe containment and isolation of groundwater for the required period of time. The physicochemical and geochemical properties of geological and hydrogeological environments should limit the release of radionuclides from disposal facilities to the accessible environment, or at least limit their migration. In addressing the treatment facility, actual or potential human activity present at or near the site should be considered. The likelihood that these activities affect the containment and isolation capabilities of the treatment system or cause unacceptable consequences should be minimized; sites located in areas where the development of surrounding rock for this purpose is least likely should be selected. The general strategy of construction and excavation should be made and implemented into the development of underground roadways, so as to ensure that the national regulations on the construction of underground structures are complied with and the excavation activities and the waste placement activities which are carried out simultaneously are not interfered with each other; excavation works are carried out without causing changes in the surrounding soil, creating an unacceptable pathway from disposal facilities to the biosphere. Geological disposal facilities, like other major facilities, must comply with environmental protection requirements and other non-radiation related regulations, and environmental degradation due to excavation activities and other industrial operations, including noise, visual effects, or physical effects, such as weeping, should be considered among the adverse effects that geological disposal systems may have on the environment; impact on areas of significant public value; degradation of public water sources; influence on animals and plants, in particular on endangered species. In selecting the appropriate site, land utilization and land usage rights should be considered, as well as future development and area planning within the area of interest. The transport of radioactive waste to geological disposal facilities involves the possibility of exposure to ionizing radiation to the public, suggesting consideration of the dose impact of the transport of the waste disposal facilities to the public. It is also necessary to consider the case of building a new access route, or improving an existing access route, suggesting a corresponding economic cost. Construction, as well as ground operations to receive and transport waste containers, decontaminate, repackage, etc., should not occur in densely populated areas, as with any large industrial activities. However, the site should be located in an area that can withstand the project-related population fluctuations and the necessary service requirements, such as construction workers and operators, houses, hotels, restaurants, the service industry, public culture organizations, and the like. Generally, sites are preferably selected away from locations of high population density, able to withstand expected changes in infrastructure, and available for labor.
In order to complete the comprehensive evaluation work of the preselected area, the evaluation idea and method are as follows. Selecting candidate sections by a preferred method, and carrying out comprehensive evaluation on the candidate sections by adopting a method combining fuzzy mathematics and hierarchical analysis; the implementation steps of the comprehensive evaluation method comprise:
1) determining indexes of ten factors of the candidate region for evaluation, wherein the geologic body area, the geologic body thickness, the geologic body burial depth, the rock stratum inclination angle, the fracture structure distribution surface density and the rock heat conductivity coefficient can be selected as evaluation indexes in geological conditions; hydrogeology can select fracture development distribution and permeability as evaluation indexes. In the stage, a fuzzy Defel method organization expert can be adopted to reasonably grade the evaluation indexes for statistical analysis.
2) Organizing expert scores by adopting an analytic hierarchy process according to each evaluation index of the candidate site, and counting results;
3) establishing a judgment matrix according to the statistical result;
4) introducing decision environment influence factors and cognitive fuzzy factors into the judgment matrix, and simulating expert evaluation situations in various decision environments;
5) solving the judgment matrix, and further solving the suitability score of each candidate field address;
6) and (5) counting the candidate site suitability ranking.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a hierarchical schematic diagram of a comprehensive evaluation analysis target tree according to the present invention.
Fig. 2 is a flow chart of the comprehensive evaluation method of the pre-selected section of the geological disposal site.
Detailed Description
The invention is described in detail below with reference to the figures and examples.
According to the high-level geological disposal warehouse site selection guide rule and requirements, a target layer for comprehensive evaluation is selected as a high-level geological disposal warehouse site, a criterion layer is geological conditions, future natural changes, hydrogeology, geochemistry and events caused by human activities, construction conditions and engineering conditions, environmental protection, land utilization, waste transportation and social influence, and a scheme layer is a candidate site, and the scheme layer is shown in figure 1.
After the target tree is analyzed in a hierarchical mode, judgment matrixes of different levels are established according to the opinions of the decision-making groups, and the weight and the comprehensive score of each criterion are calculated according to the judgment matrixes. Then, how to establish reasonable opinion representation of decision-making groups, opinion statistics and comprehensive evaluation methods is important.
1) Decision group
The personnel who participate in the comprehensive evaluation of the preselected area should be divided into three categories from the aspect of the job: supervision department personnel, administrative department personnel, staff, expert consultants; the professional background of the expert consultant group should cover ten factors involved in the comprehensive evaluation of the preselected site, including natural environmental constraints (geological conditions, hydrogeology, geochemistry, future natural changes, construction conditions), social environmental constraints (human activities, waste transportation, land use, social impact, environmental protection).
2) Opinion characterization
In general, the hierarchical analysis method often represents a score of an evaluation target by a clear value. Actually, the subjective evaluation value is often blurred. Therefore, the adoption of the triangular fuzzy number to replace the definite value in the judgment matrix is a good application test so as to solve the fuzzy consensus problem in the hierarchical analysis.
Since the decision making group may not know the pair-wise comparison pair program of the analytic hierarchy process, the selection is misjudged. Or the problem of low fuzzy consistency caused by the consistency problem of the questionnaire which is not checked in advance. It is therefore necessary to check the evaluation consistency of the decision group with respect to the evaluation criterion or the sub-criterion in advance using an analytic hierarchy process (consistency judgment method of reference judgment matrix). And rejecting the evaluation values which are unreasonable and fail to pass the consistency test. And (4) leaving the evaluation value meeting the requirement, and establishing a judgment matrix of fuzzy evaluation parameters (triangular fuzzy number) in the analytic hierarchy process.
The evaluation value by the consistency check is taken into consideration for establishment of a trigonometric function (trigonometric fuzzy number function). The trigonometric function corresponding to criterion A is represented as:
LRA＝min(XAi) 1, n equation 9
LUA＝max(XAi) 1, n equation 11
Wherein, XAiEvaluation value of A-criterion/sub-criterion for i-th student or expert
LRALower limit of evaluation value for scholars or expert groups for A-criterion/sub-criterion
LMAGeometric mean of evaluation values for a student or expert group for A-criterion/sub-criterion
LUAUpper limit of evaluation value for scholars or expert groups to A-criterion/sub-criterion
A is criterion/sub-criterion
i being scholars or experts
As fuzzy numbers affecting the factor A
In order to replace the definite evaluation value in the judgment matrix with the triangular fuzzy number, a fuzzy degree value interval function (a) and an evaluation value confidence degree value (lambda) are introduced, so that a decision maker can know evaluation results under different evaluation environments. The smaller the value of a is, the fuzzy judgment of the decision group on the evaluation criterion/sub-criterion consensus is represented; the larger the inverse alpha, the clearer and more obvious the decision maker knows the evaluation criterion/sub-criterion. The relative weights between the criteria or sub-criteria in the decision matrix can be expressed as follows by a triangular fuzzy number function:
wherein,denotes aijThe upper limit of the criterion/sub-criterion evaluation value of (1),denotes aijWhen α is 0 and λ is 0, it represents that the decision evaluation value given by the decision group is most conservative, and when α is 1 and λ is 1, it represents that the decision evaluation value given by the decision group is most optimistic.
3) Opinion statistics
For the statistics of member opinions in the decision group, the method of eliminating the unqualified scores and then adopting a weighted average method is adopted to obtain the triangular fuzzy number function corresponding to each criterion or each sub-criterion. And finally, constructing a corresponding judgment matrix according to the triangular fuzzy function obtained by counting each criterion or each sub-criterion, and further simulating the most suitable preselected site under different decision conditions (the recognition accuracy of the decision group members to each criterion is different from the credibility of the evaluation value). The corresponding decision matrix can be expressed as:
in a general decision making process, the weight of an evaluation criterion or a sub-criterion is commonly used to represent the importance degree of a decision making criterion; the most weighted one of the evaluation values given by the decision group is considered as the key of the left and right schemes. Sometimes, however, the less weighted scoring value is instead a key value that affects the decision. In order to comprehensively evaluate and analyze the preselected sections under different decision situations, 11 different values are respectively selected by adopting different alpha lambda and alpha lambda, and consensus, namely evaluation opinions, achieved by the decision group members under 121 decision situations is simulated.
4) Screening method
The steps of the method are shown in fig. 2.
And according to the weights of all the criteria or sub-criteria calculated by the opinions of the decision group members under 121 decision situations, counting the comprehensive evaluation index of each candidate section, and then counting the ordering condition of the candidate sections. And adopting the sorting frequency to characterize the sorting condition of each candidate section.
It will be apparent to those skilled in the art that various changes and modifications may be made in the present invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention. Thus, if such modifications and variations of the present invention fall within the scope of the claims of the present invention and their equivalents, the present invention is intended to include such modifications and variations.
Claims (7)
1. A comprehensive evaluation method for pre-selection sections of geological disposal sites is characterized by comprising the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps:
1) determining indexes for evaluating the candidate sections, reasonably grading the evaluation indexes by organizing experts by a fuzzy Defield method, and performing statistical analysis;
2) organizing expert scores by adopting an analytic hierarchy process according to each evaluation index of the candidate site, and counting results;
3) establishing a judgment matrix of the fuzzy evaluation parameters according to the statistical results of the first two steps;
4) introducing decision environment influence factors and cognitive fuzzy factors into the judgment matrix, and simulating expert evaluation situations in various decision environments;
5) solving the judgment matrix, and further solving the suitability score of each candidate field address;
6) and (5) counting the candidate site suitability ranking.
2. A method of comprehensive evaluation of a pre-selected section of a geological treatment site according to claim 1, characterized by:
the indicators include: geological conditions, future natural changes, hydrogeology, geochemistry, events resulting from human activities, construction and engineering conditions, environmental conservation, land use, waste transportation, social impact.
3. A method of comprehensive evaluation of a pre-selected section of a geological treatment site according to claim 2, characterized by:
and in the geological conditions, the area of a geologic body, the thickness of the geologic body, the buried depth of the geologic body, the inclination angle of a rock stratum, the distribution surface density of a fracture structure and the heat conductivity of rocks are selected as evaluation indexes.
4. A method of comprehensive evaluation of a pre-selected section of a geological treatment site according to claim 2, characterized by:
the hydrogeology selects fracture development distribution and permeability as evaluation indexes.
5. A method of comprehensive evaluation of a pre-selected section of a geological treatment site according to claim 1, characterized by:
the trigonometric function corresponding to the criterion A of the fuzzy evaluation parameter is represented as:
LRA＝min(XAi),i＝1, 1., n formula 2
LUA＝max(XAi) 1, n equation 4
Wherein, XAiEvaluation value of A-criterion/sub-criterion for i-th student or expert
LRALower limit of evaluation value for scholars or expert groups for A-criterion/sub-criterion
LMAGeometric mean of evaluation values for a student or expert group for A-criterion/sub-criterion
LUAUpper limit of evaluation value for scholars or expert groups to A-criterion/sub-criterion
A is criterion/sub-criterion
i being scholars or experts
Is the blur number for the impact factor of a.
6. A method of comprehensive evaluation of a pre-selected section of a geological treatment site according to claim 1, characterized by:
the relative weight between each criterion or sub-criterion in the judgment matrix is expressed by a triangular fuzzy number function as follows:
wherein a is fuzzy degree value interval function, λ is evaluation value confidence degree value,denotes aijUpper limit of evaluation value of criterion/sub-criterion of，Denotes aijThe criterion/sub-criterion evaluation value lower limit.
7. A method of comprehensive evaluation of a pre-selected section of a geological treatment site according to claim 6, characterized by:
the decision matrix is represented as:
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| CN111882185A (en) * | 2020-07-15 | 2020-11-03 | 上海丙晟科技有限公司 | Shopping center site selection device and method based on big data and expert experience |
| CN113743766A (en) * | 2021-08-27 | 2021-12-03 | 暨南大学 | Decision evaluation method and system for sponge city planning construction |
| CN114399139A (en) * | 2021-11-30 | 2022-04-26 | 核工业北京地质研究院 | Hydrogeological suitability evaluation method for high-level waste geological disposal reservoir site |
| CN115115142A (en) * | 2022-08-24 | 2022-09-27 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 | Ship emergency stop point planning method and device and electronic equipment |
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| CN109345074A (en) * | 2018-09-03 | 2019-02-15 | 中国辐射防护研究院 | A kind of method high-level waste geology treatment public acceptance influence factor identification and evaluated |
| CN111882185A (en) * | 2020-07-15 | 2020-11-03 | 上海丙晟科技有限公司 | Shopping center site selection device and method based on big data and expert experience |
| CN113743766A (en) * | 2021-08-27 | 2021-12-03 | 暨南大学 | Decision evaluation method and system for sponge city planning construction |
| CN114399139A (en) * | 2021-11-30 | 2022-04-26 | 核工业北京地质研究院 | Hydrogeological suitability evaluation method for high-level waste geological disposal reservoir site |
| CN115115142A (en) * | 2022-08-24 | 2022-09-27 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 | Ship emergency stop point planning method and device and electronic equipment |
| CN115115142B (en) * | 2022-08-24 | 2022-12-27 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 | Ship emergency stop point planning method and device and electronic equipment |
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Application publication date: 20170609 |