CN106651128A - Power transmission and transformation system risk early warning method - Google Patents
Power transmission and transformation system risk early warning method Download PDFInfo
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- CN106651128A CN106651128A CN201611008235.0A CN201611008235A CN106651128A CN 106651128 A CN106651128 A CN 106651128A CN 201611008235 A CN201611008235 A CN 201611008235A CN 106651128 A CN106651128 A CN 106651128A
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Abstract
The invention discloses a power transmission and transformation system risk early warning method. The method includes the following steps that: S1, a power transmission line risk assessment establishing overall framework is established, a risk assessment model is established according to each component of a power transmission line, the quantization of state quantities is established, and the degrees of membership of the state quantities are solved; and S2, a calculation method and an evaluation standard for the correction of the risk value of the power transmission line by the operating years and operating environment of equipment and the operation status of a power grid are determined, and the aging coefficients of the components, the operating environment time coefficient and geographical position coefficient of the power transmission line are defined. With the power transmission and transformation system risk early warning method of the invention adopted, an interval of the power transmission line, where a fault occurs, can be determined more accurately, fault inspection can be performed in a targeted manner, the inspection range of line fault inspectors can be decreased, line fault inspection time can be decreased, the cause of the fault of the power transmission line can be determined more accurately, and the efficiency of fault analysis can be improved.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of method for early warning, specifically a kind of power transmission and transformation system method for prewarning risk.
Background technology
The continuous expansion of power system scale and growing with each passing day for importance, make society have the reliability service of power system
Higher requirement.Work about electric power person will not only solve produced problem, send out with greater need for equipment is understood by risk assessment
The possibility of raw problem and the order of severity of problem.Moreover, the data of risk assessment are frequently utilized for the O＆M tune of electrical network
Degree, to operation monitoring, overhaul management, troubleshooting, on-the-spot make an inspection tour of electric power enterprise etc. directive function can be played.Meanwhile, frame
Empty transmission line of electricity local environment is complicated and changeable, and running status is affected serious by sleet, thunder and lightning, natural calamity etc., it is necessary to right
The operation risk of transmission line of electricity is estimated, and the larger transmission line of electricity of risk is found in time, is that power grid enterprises formulate equipment emphasis
Management and control strategy provides technical support.The service work pattern of current electric grid enterprise still based on periodic scheduled overhaul, with
Grid equipment quantity increases, and maintenance workload is also greatly increased, and overhauls the not enough problem of strength and also increasingly projects, as received basis
Amount is difficult to ensure that.Using risk evaluation result efficiently using maintenance strength, the check man for needing most is completed with optimum order
Make, be the key point for solving this problem.Risk assessment is a complicated and time-consuming job in all industries, by
Substantial amounts of subjective factor is doped with assessment result, makes the Mathematical Modeling precision of assessment low, and poor compatibility.In power industry
In, the subject matter that transmission line of electricity carries out risk assessment is had at present：1. evaluation method is simple, and parameter is fixed, as a result convincingness
It is limited.2. data acquisition difficulty is big, and information is not complete, and not enough comprehensively, assessment result can not truly reflect the risk feelings of equipment for assessment
Condition.3. state estimation disconnects with risk assessment, and power grid enterprises have only carried out state estimation link, follow-up maintenance, risk mostly
Evaluation work is no longer paid close attention to.4. precision is low cannot reflect the real risk of equipment with incomplete Risk Assessment Report, and comment
Estimate result often affects limited to maintenance decision, therefore cannot provide powerful support for the formulation of maintenance decision.The risk master of transmission line of electricity
Three aspects are derived from, one is outside environmental elements, such as sleet, air etc. draw to the burn into strong wind of transmission line of electricity component
Rise lead () skew of line, artificial steal destruction to transmission line of electricity etc.；Two is self deterioration factor, mainly power transmission line
Metal fatigue, crackle that circuit unit is produced with the increase of the time limit that puts into operation, wire strand breakage, affiliated facility functional failure etc. are existing
As；Three is transmission line of electricity emergency case along the line, including unexpected power failure, the failure of the natural calamity such as thunderbolt, mountain fire and electrical network
Deng.As can be seen here, residing for transmission line of electricity environment is complicated, and risk assessment is carried out to it to be needed to consider many factors.
The content of the invention
It is an object of the invention to provide a kind of power transmission and transformation system method for prewarning risk, to solve above-mentioned background technology in carry
The problem for going out.
For achieving the above object, the present invention provides following technical scheme：
A kind of power transmission and transformation system method for prewarning risk, the method comprising the steps of：Step S1, sets up transmission line of electricity risk and comments
Estimate general frame, for each part of transmission line of electricity risk evaluation model set up, the quantization of asserted state amount with ask for degree of membership；Step
Rapid S2, establish the equipment operation time limit, running environment and operation of power networks state to the computational methods of transmission line of electricity value-at-risk amendment and
Evaluation criterion, the aging coefficient of definition component, the running environment time coefficient of transmission line of electricity and geographical position coefficient；Step S3,
The overall risk value for obtaining transmission line of electricity is corrected through a series of by the value-at-risk of each part, and according to risk evaluation result to defeated
Electric line O＆M carries out aid decision；Step S4, using all-digital real-time simulation APSS systems simulation analysis are carried out, and obtain difference
Section transmission line of electricity, the simulation analysis figure of failure, and simulation analysis waveform is compared with physical fault record ripple figure, waveform phase
Section like corresponding to degree highest is the concrete section that failure is most likely to occur；Ripple figure is recorded with actual event by typical fault
Barrier record ripple figure is compared, and draws most probable failure cause.
As further scheme of the invention：Step S1 is specifically：1. the transmission line of electricity risk for setting up sub-unit is commented
Estimate general frame, the transmission line of electricity risk assessment general frame by basis, shaft tower, lead wire and earth wire, insulator, gold utensil, earthing or grounding means,
The value-at-risk and period, section and operation of power networks state letter residing for transmission line of electricity of affiliated facility and channel environment this 8 parts
Breath is constituted；2. some states of the risk evaluation model by part of each part described in the risk evaluation model of each part are set up
The operation time limit of amount, historical failure, defect statistics data and part is constituted；3. the risk of each quantity of state is quantified；4. ask for
The degree of membership of each quantity of state.
As further scheme of the invention：The utilization all-digital real-time simulation APSS systems carry out simulation analysis, should
Faulty line four trouble points at certain transformer station 80%, 60%, 40%, 20% are chosen at, respectively to bus phase voltage, line current
And the zero sequence variable during failure carries out simulation analysis, and simulation waveform is drawn respectively.
As further scheme of the invention：When the simulation analysis waveform is compared with physical fault record ripple figure, will
Four trouble point simulation analysis figures are compared with the fault oscillograph of reality at certain transformer station 80%, at 60%, at 40%, at 20%
To analysis, waveform development trend is observed, it is concrete that the section corresponding to wave-form similarity highest is that failure is most likely to occur
Section.
As further scheme of the invention：When the typical fault record ripple figure is compared with physical fault record ripple figure, will
Protection act behavior, fault oscillograph and correlated characteristic amount are compared with typical fault oscillograph, draw possible failure
Reason.
Compared with prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects as follows：The present invention can more accurately determine transmission line malfunction
The section of generation, targetedly carries out fault inspection, reduces the tour scope of line fault tour personnel, shortens fault inspection
Time；And can more accurately determine the reason for transmission line malfunction occurs, improve the efficiency of accident analysis.
Specific embodiment
The technical scheme in the embodiment of the present invention is clearly and completely described below.
In the embodiment of the present invention, a kind of power transmission and transformation system method for prewarning risk the method comprising the steps of：Step
S1, sets up transmission line of electricity risk assessment general frame, and for each part of transmission line of electricity risk evaluation model, asserted state amount are set up
Quantization with ask for degree of membership；Step S2, establishes the equipment operation time limit, running environment and operation of power networks state to power transmission line transportation work style
Danger value amendment computational methods and evaluation criterion, the aging coefficient of definition component, the running environment time coefficient of transmission line of electricity and
Geographical position coefficient；Step S3, by the value-at-risk of each part the overall risk value of transmission line of electricity is obtained through a series of amendments, and
Aid decision is carried out to transmission line of electricity O＆M according to risk evaluation result；Step S4, using all-digital real-time simulation APSS systems
Simulation analysis are carried out, different section transmission lines of electricity are obtained, the simulation analysis figure of failure, and by simulation analysis waveform and physical fault
Record ripple figure is compared, and the section corresponding to wave-form similarity highest is the concrete section that failure is most likely to occur；Pass through
Typical fault is recorded ripple figure and is compared with physical fault record ripple figure, draws most probable failure cause.Step S1 is specifically：
1. set up the transmission line of electricity risk assessment general frame of sub-unit, the transmission line of electricity risk assessment general frame by basis, shaft tower,
The value-at-risk of lead wire and earth wire, insulator, gold utensil, earthing or grounding means, affiliated facility and channel environment this 8 parts and transmission line of electricity institute
Place's period, section and operation of power networks status information are constituted；2. the wind of each part described in the risk evaluation model of each part is set up
Dangerous assessment models are made up of the operation time limit of some quantity of states of part, historical failure, defect statistics data and part；3. measure
Change the risk of each quantity of state；4. the degree of membership of each quantity of state is asked for.The utilization all-digital real-time simulation APSS systems are carried out
Simulation analysis, should be chosen at faulty line four trouble points at certain transformer station 80%, 60%, 40%, 20%, mutually electric to bus respectively
Zero sequence variable during pressure, line current and failure carries out simulation analysis, and draws simulation waveform respectively.The simulation analysis
When waveform and physical fault record ripple figure is compared, will at certain transformer station 80%, at 60%, at 40%, at 20% four trouble points
Simulation analysis figure compares with the fault oscillograph of reality, observes waveform development trend, wave-form similarity highest institute
Corresponding section is the concrete section that failure is most likely to occur.The typical fault record ripple figure is compared with physical fault record ripple figure
When, protection act behavior, fault oscillograph and correlated characteristic amount are compared with typical fault oscillograph, draw possible
Failure cause.
1st, failure wave-recording map analysis.Transmission line of electricity breaks down after tripping operation, and both sides fault oscillograph is extracted first, records ripple figure
Feature should be false voltage and slightly decline, and fault current increase is obvious, while extracting the voltage and current value at a certain moment.2、
Simulation analysis are carried out using all-digital real-time simulation APSS systems.After determining failure, according to faulty line geographical wiring diagram, failure
The information such as the characteristic quantity that record ripple figure is extracted, such as failure are separate to cut with form, earth resistance estimated value, failure generation moment, failure
Except and the information such as Reclosing Instant, set up simulation analysis model.Due to the concrete scene of unknown failure, fault wire should be chosen at
Road four trouble points at certain transformer station 80%, 60%, 40%, 20%, respectively to bus phase voltage, line current and failure during
Zero sequence variable carry out simulation analysis, and draw simulation waveform respectively.3rd, simulation analysis waveform and fault oscillograph are compared.Will be away from
Four trouble point simulation analysis figures are compared with the fault oscillograph of reality at certain transformer station 80%, at 60%, at 40%, at 20%
Analysis, observes waveform development trend, and the section corresponding to wave-form similarity highest is the concrete area that failure is most likely to occur
Section.If physical fault record ripple figure is the most similar to the fault oscillograph at 80%, failure is most likely occurred in away from transformer station 80%
Near.4th, fault oscillograph and typical fault record the comparison of ripple figure.By protection act behavior, fault oscillograph and correlated characteristic amount
Compare with typical high resistance earthing fault record ripple figure, such as set bamboo electric discharge, crane short, Bird's Nest short circuit, foreign matter short circuit, obtain
Go out possible failure cause.If by comparing, physical fault record ripple figure is similar to tree bamboo electric discharge, Bird's Nest short circuit and foreign matter short circuit,
Then this failure may be tree bamboo electric discharge, Bird's Nest short circuit or foreign matter short circuit.5th, it is time for being occurred according to failure, seasonal characteristic, defeated
Residing landform of electric line etc., can exclusive segment failure cause, and draw probability of happening highest failure cause.Such as fault wire
Road is located in Plain, line corridor without tree bamboo, then can exclude the electric discharge of tree bamboo may, if this failure just occurs in avian reproduction again
Spring, then this failure it is most possible the reason for be Bird's Nest short circuit.6th, live line walking confirms.According to the area that simulation analysis draw
Section and most probable failure cause, targetedly carry out fault inspection.
It is obvious to a person skilled in the art that the invention is not restricted to the details of above-mentioned one exemplary embodiment, Er Qie
In the case of spirit or essential attributes without departing substantially from the present invention, the present invention can be in other specific forms realized.Therefore, no matter
From the point of view of which point, embodiment all should be regarded as exemplary, and be nonrestrictive, the scope of the present invention is by appended power
Profit is required rather than described above is limited, it is intended that all in the implication and scope of the equivalency of claim by falling
Change is included in the present invention.Moreover, it will be appreciated that although this specification is been described by according to embodiment, not each
Embodiment only includes an independent technical scheme, and this narrating mode of specification is only this area for clarity
Technical staff should using specification as an entirety, the technical scheme in each embodiment can also Jing it is appropriately combined, form this
Art personnel may be appreciated other embodiment.
Claims (5)
1. a kind of power transmission and transformation system method for prewarning risk, it is characterised in that the method comprising the steps of：Step S1, sets up
Transmission line of electricity risk assessment general frame, for each part of transmission line of electricity risk evaluation model, the quantization of asserted state amount are set up
With ask for degree of membership；Step S2, the establishment equipment operation time limit, running environment and operation of power networks state are repaiied to transmission line of electricity value-at-risk
Positive computational methods and evaluation criterion, the aging coefficient of definition component, the running environment time coefficient of transmission line of electricity and geographical position
Put coefficient；Step S3, the overall risk value for obtaining transmission line of electricity is corrected by the value-at-risk of each part through a series of, and according to wind
Dangerous assessment result carries out aid decision to transmission line of electricity O＆M；Step S4, is imitated using all-digital real-time simulation APSS systems
True analysis, obtains different section transmission lines of electricity, the simulation analysis figure of failure, and simulation analysis waveform and physical fault are recorded into ripple figure
Compare, the section corresponding to wave-form similarity highest is the concrete section that failure is most likely to occur；By typical event
Barrier record ripple figure is compared with physical fault record ripple figure, draws most probable failure cause.
2. power transmission and transformation system method for prewarning risk according to claim 1, it is characterised in that step S1 is specifically：
1. set up the transmission line of electricity risk assessment general frame of sub-unit, the transmission line of electricity risk assessment general frame by basis, shaft tower,
The value-at-risk of lead wire and earth wire, insulator, gold utensil, earthing or grounding means, affiliated facility and channel environment this 8 parts and transmission line of electricity institute
Place's period, section and operation of power networks status information are constituted；2. the wind of each part described in the risk evaluation model of each part is set up
Dangerous assessment models are made up of the operation time limit of some quantity of states of part, historical failure, defect statistics data and part；3. measure
Change the risk of each quantity of state；4. the degree of membership of each quantity of state is asked for.
3. power transmission and transformation system method for prewarning risk according to claim 1, it is characterised in that it is described using it is digital in real time
Simulating APS S system carries out simulation analysis, should be chosen at faulty line four failures at certain transformer station 80%, 60%, 40%, 20%
Point, respectively to bus phase voltage, line current and failure during zero sequence variable carry out simulation analysis, and draw emulation respectively
Waveform.
4. power transmission and transformation system method for prewarning risk according to claim 1, it is characterised in that the simulation analysis waveform with
When physical fault record ripple figure is compared, will the four trouble point emulation point at certain transformer station 80%, at 60%, at 40%, at 20%
Analysis figure compares with the fault oscillograph of reality, observation waveform development trend, corresponding to wave-form similarity highest
Section is the concrete section that failure is most likely to occur.
5. power transmission and transformation system method for prewarning risk according to claim 1, it is characterised in that the typical fault records ripple figure
When comparing with physical fault record ripple figure, by protection act behavior, fault oscillograph and correlated characteristic amount and typical failure wave-recording
Figure is compared, and draws possible failure cause.
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Cited By (7)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN107392506A (en) * | 2017-08-25 | 2017-11-24 | 湖北国网华中科技开发有限责任公司 | A kind of self-study line status evaluation system and evaluation method for merging development of Mobile Internet technology |
| CN107894324A (en) * | 2017-12-19 | 2018-04-10 | 中国电力科学研究院有限公司 | A kind of OPGW running statuses appraisal procedure and system based on health index |
| CN108037411A (en) * | 2017-12-04 | 2018-05-15 | 国网江苏省电力有限公司检修分公司 | A kind of transmission line of electricity hidden danger electric discharge method for early warning |
| CN108921452A (en) * | 2018-07-27 | 2018-11-30 | 国网河北能源技术服务有限公司 | A kind of compound method for early warning of transmission line of electricity risk assessment based on fuzzy algorithmic approach |
| CN109117539A (en) * | 2018-08-02 | 2019-01-01 | 上海电机学院 | A method of the failure and reliability of analysis power transformer |
| CN113609638A (en) * | 2021-06-24 | 2021-11-05 | 广东电网有限责任公司 | Electromechanical-electromagnetic hybrid fault prediction method and system of energy storage transient model |
| CN113625109A (en) * | 2021-08-04 | 2021-11-09 | 广西电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 | Intelligent diagnosis method and device for power line faults |
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| CN106022622A (en) * | 2016-05-25 | 2016-10-12 | 中国南方电网有限责任公司超高压输电公司检修试验中心 | Mountain fire risk assessment method of transmission line |
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| CN104316791A (en) * | 2014-10-21 | 2015-01-28 | 国家电网公司 | Reason analyzing and locating method for high resistance grounding fault of transmission line |
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| CN106022622A (en) * | 2016-05-25 | 2016-10-12 | 中国南方电网有限责任公司超高压输电公司检修试验中心 | Mountain fire risk assessment method of transmission line |
Cited By (8)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN107392506A (en) * | 2017-08-25 | 2017-11-24 | 湖北国网华中科技开发有限责任公司 | A kind of self-study line status evaluation system and evaluation method for merging development of Mobile Internet technology |
| CN108037411A (en) * | 2017-12-04 | 2018-05-15 | 国网江苏省电力有限公司检修分公司 | A kind of transmission line of electricity hidden danger electric discharge method for early warning |
| CN107894324A (en) * | 2017-12-19 | 2018-04-10 | 中国电力科学研究院有限公司 | A kind of OPGW running statuses appraisal procedure and system based on health index |
| CN108921452A (en) * | 2018-07-27 | 2018-11-30 | 国网河北能源技术服务有限公司 | A kind of compound method for early warning of transmission line of electricity risk assessment based on fuzzy algorithmic approach |
| CN108921452B (en) * | 2018-07-27 | 2021-04-09 | 华北电力大学（保定） | Power transmission line risk assessment composite early warning method based on fuzzy algorithm |
| CN109117539A (en) * | 2018-08-02 | 2019-01-01 | 上海电机学院 | A method of the failure and reliability of analysis power transformer |
| CN113609638A (en) * | 2021-06-24 | 2021-11-05 | 广东电网有限责任公司 | Electromechanical-electromagnetic hybrid fault prediction method and system of energy storage transient model |
| CN113625109A (en) * | 2021-08-04 | 2021-11-09 | 广西电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 | Intelligent diagnosis method and device for power line faults |
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Application publication date: 20170510 |