CN106651126A - Method for evaluating the spontaneous combustion risk of residual coal - Google Patents
Method for evaluating the spontaneous combustion risk of residual coal Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for evaluating the spontaneous combustion risk of residual coal. The method is characterized in that in order to understand the degree of spontaneous combustion risk of the residual coal in a goaf, understand a relationship between the spontaneous combustion of the residual coal and a influence factor thereof, and evaluate the spontaneous combustion risk, a game extension algorithm is provided that combines the subjective and objective weight analysis of the game with the extension tendency analysis to determine the state of an object to be evaluated, to obtain the state development trend of the evaluated object, and the subjective weight and objective weight of the factor. The method can be used for analysis of the spontaneous combustion risk of residual coal.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to safety of coal mines engineering, more particularly to analyzes spontaneous combustion of remaining coal risk analysis.
Background technology
China is all the time coal production and uses big country, according to the freely burning fire to national big-and-middle-sized emphasis colliery
Number of times is counted, and it accounts for the 90%～94% of mine fire total degree, wherein the spontaneous combustion for losing coal accounts for the 60% of all freely burning fires, its
Serious economic loss and casualties is caused, or even negative effect is also result in coal industry.
The spontaneous combustion of coal is the physics and chemical process of a complexity, for its fundamental reaction mechanism and process are always coal
The research emphasis in exploitation field, it is generally the case that coal spontaneous combustion can be expressed as a slow oxidizing process, its be also
Carry out under certain condition, mainly include：The less coal of oxidable particle under cryogenic, it is larger because of specific surface area,
Chemism is preferable；With good air permeability, to provide oxygen supply oxidation reaction；Having can lay in the physics bar of reaction heat
Part, but these affect analyses in Practical Project be it is relatively difficult, some extreme conditions for monitoring and analysis bring compared with
It is big difficult, on the other hand, for spontaneous combustion of remaining coal is also accumulated from suitable data in the case where allowing artificial and equipment to detect, that
How these data are utilized, find out the relation of coal spontaneous combustion and its influence factor, and then predict the position that spontaneous combustion of remaining coal may occur
Put, be finally reached the purpose prevented in advance and control, should be the problem studied emphatically.
At present for spontaneous combustion of remaining coal forecast analysis has been carried out some researchs, but these evaluation methods and result are commented
Valency expert subjective factor itself affect it is excessive, the expert opinion with different experiences and level differs, in addition, evaluation result except
The possibility degree of spontaneous combustion of remaining coal under current state can be analyzed, the variation tendency of spontaneous combustion possibility can be also analyzed, has been reached and has been carried
The purpose of front prevention.
To realize the above-mentioned purpose evaluated spontaneous combustion of remaining coal risk profile, a kind of game extenics method is proposed here, will be rich
The subjective and objective weight analysis played chess are combined with the sentiment classification that can be opened up, using the model analysis the multiple positions in certain colliery lose coal from
The possibility and tendency of combustion.
The content of the invention
1 spontaneous combustion of remaining coal Risk Assessment Index System：Spontaneous combustion of remaining coal is relevant with many factors, main to include three aspects：Particle
Less coal, good ventilation condition and the structure of heat can be laid in, but during specific to practical engineering application, for these phases
The judgement of the factor of pass has more dispute and uncertainty, for the factor related to spontaneous combustion of remaining coal is studied, draws
The factor such as concentration, air flux of each component judges as mark the spontaneous combustion process of coal in coal texture, air, ties here
These documents are closed, 5 evaluation indexes for judging coal spontaneous combustion risk are summed up, including：With working face distance/m, oxygen concentration/%,
Advance rate/m, leakage intensity/m.s-1, float coal thickness/m, worked out three opinion ratings, be respectively：Very risky (I), there is wind
Dangerous (II), safely (III), grade and corresponding evaluation of estimate are as shown in table 1,
The spontaneous combustion of remaining coal Risk Assessment Index System of table 1 and classification
2 game extension algorithms：Game extension algorithm is can to open up theoretical with game theoretic combination, and extension assessment approach is by true
Determine spontaneous combustion of remaining coal Risk Assessment Index System, set up degree of risk grade scale, obtain Classical field, section domain and matter-element to be evaluated, then
Correlation function is determined by matter-element to be evaluated, using game theoretic method each index weights are determined, finally determine spontaneous combustion degree of risk etc.
The evaluation method of level.
Determine matter-element：Provide Classical field Rj, section domain RpWith matter-element R to be evaluatedW, respectively as shown in formula (1)～(3),
Membership function is normalized：Required according to feature and algorithm, here using linear dimensionless method membership function, profit evaluation model
With cost π membership function respectively as shown in formula (4) and (5),
Wherein：v′wk：K-th evaluation index value after normalizing；vwk：Without k-th evaluation index value of normalizing；max(vpk)：Comment for k-th
Valency index section domain maximum；min(vpk)：K-th evaluation index section domain minimum of a value.
Correlation function：Each evaluation index correlation function value of spontaneous combustion risk can open up pass with corresponding weighted value to determine
Connection degree, then matter-element v to be evaluatedwkShown in the correlation function of jth grade such as formula (6),
In formula：D=j or p, ρ (vwk, vdk) be used for representing a little to interval distance.
Game theoretic enabling legislation：Matter Element Extension Evaluating Method typically adopts subjective weighting method, such as AHP methods, expert survey,
Or objective weighted model, such as simple correlation function, entropy assessment, only consider that subjective weights or Objective Weight are all unilateral, are
Consider two kinds and assign impact of the power forms to comprehensive weight, by objective weighted model and subjective weighting method synthesis, obtain matter-element
The comprehensive weight of extension assessment approach, according to game theory, it is possible to use the different method of y kinds carries out tax power to evaluation index respectively,
So as to obtain y evaluation criterion weight vector：ui=(ui1,ui2,…,uim), (i=1,2 ..., k), its any linear combination is such as
Shown in formula (7), formula (7) is optimized, makes u and each uiDeviation minimization, its optimal conditions is formula (8), according to matrix
The property of differential, by formula (8) equivalence the system of linear equations of first derivative is converted into, and as shown in formula (9), solution equation group obtains vectorial
(α1,α2,…,αk), and then formula (10) is obtained, weight such as formula (11) is finally given,
Determine extension relativity and risk class：Obtained according to formula (6) sample to be evaluated spontaneous combustion risk assessment grade j can
The degree of association is opened up, as shown in formula (12),
In formula：uk *For weighted value of k-th index in whole evaluation index；Kj(vwk) it is matter-element v to be evaluatedwkUnder jth grade
The correlation function value of k-th evaluation index.
According to degree of association maximum principle, matter-element to be evaluated is determined by the maximum of evaluation index extension relativity, such as formula
(13) shown in,
Understand that grade to be evaluated is j by formula (13)0, for the intensity of variation for more accurately determining grade and its between different stage,
Available grades characteristics of variables value j* weighing, as shown in formula (14),
In formula:
Specific embodiment
Based on the experiment of Coal Self-ignition Process, it is found that the feature that the different phase of its process shows is different, CO during being somebody's turn to do
The temperature time curve of coal spontaneous combustion can be divided into two stages by temperature when content is mutated, typically between 60 DEG C to 80 DEG C,
Generally value is 70 DEG C, and coal spontaneous combustion is mainly the chemical reaction between coal and oxygen, generates various oxides, then due to each rank
The oxidation product of section and its difference of yield, are also different to the wear rate of oxygen, and here selection oxygen wear rate is
The characteristic quantity of Coal Self-ignition Process is characterized, selects to affect 5 factors of oxygen wear rate to carry out importance analysis, so as to understand this
The influence degree of 5 factors to spontaneous combustion of remaining coal, including：Moisture u1, fixed carbon u2, oxygen concentration u3, volatile matter u4, temperature u5, this five
It is not independent between individual factor, when a factor changes other factors may be caused to change, with the sight of ANP
Point is described, and it is 5 factor groups comprising more sub- factors that can be expressed as this 5 factors, the sub- factor in different factor groups
Presence is connected each other, and then network consisting layer, and such network is adapted to ANP researchs.
The cloud ANP analysis processes of proposition, carry out first expert judging, are given a mark by three experts, obtain comparing square
Battle array is as shown in table 2,
The comparator matrix of table 2
Note：A in tableiAnd 1/AiAll in accordance with the gained of table 1.
Three experts are to u1With u2The cloud model of comparative result be expressed as：A3、1/A3、A2, i.e., (3,0.437,0.073),
(0.3333,0.0486,0.0081), (2,0.707,0.118), based on the consideration of expert's equal weight, take three evaluation result clouds
Mean value, i.e. (A3+1/A3+A2)/(3,0,0)=(1.7778,0.2775,0.0463) as comprehensive comparative result, composition
Synthetic Judgement Matrix is as shown in table 3,
The Synthetic Judgement Matrix of table 3
Using the relative weighting characteristic parameter of the expectation of root method computational element, ambiguity and randomness, according to formula (5),
(6), (7) are normalized to matrix, obtain table 4,
Matrix after the normalization of table 4
Note：(1,0,0) normalization computing is not participated in.
Consistency check is carried out to table 4, its result is less than 0.1, meet and require, on request the limit is taken to table 4 and obtained finally
Index importance sort and normalize, the last importance degree index that obtains is respectively：u1=(0.1861,0.1081,
0.1080)、u2=(0.1933,0.1519,0.1519), u3=(0.2147,0.2833,0.2833), u4=(0.1975,
0.2140,0.2140)、u5=(0.2084,0.2427,0.2428), by said process visible influences spontaneous combustion in goaf
Factor importance ranking be：Oxygen concentration u3>Temperature u5>Volatile matter u4>Fixed carbon u2>Moisture u1。
Claims (8)
1. a kind of spontaneous combustion of remaining coal risk evaluating method, it is characterised in that to understand spontaneous combustion in goaf degree of risk, understand and lose
Relation between coal spontaneous combustion and its influence factor, evaluates spontaneous combustion risk, it is proposed that a kind of game extension algorithm, and algorithm will
The subjective and objective weight analysis of game are combined with the sentiment classification that can be opened up, it may be determined that be evaluated object status, obtain being commented
Valency Obj State development trend, and the subjective weight and objective weight of factor, can be used for spontaneous combustion of remaining coal risk analysis.
2. a kind of spontaneous combustion of remaining coal risk evaluating method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that spontaneous combustion of remaining coal risk assessment refers to
Mark system, 5 evaluation indexes for judging coal spontaneous combustion risk, including：With working face distance/m, oxygen concentration/%, advance rate/m,
Leakage intensity/ms-1, float coal thickness/m, worked out three opinion ratings, be respectively：Very risky (I), risky (II), peace
Entirely (III).
3. a kind of spontaneous combustion of remaining coal risk evaluating method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that extension assessment approach is by true
Determine spontaneous combustion of remaining coal Risk Assessment Index System, set up degree of risk grade scale, obtain Classical field, section domain and matter-element to be evaluated, then
Correlation function is determined by matter-element to be evaluated, using game theoretic method each index weights are determined, finally determine spontaneous combustion degree of risk etc.
The evaluation method of level.
4. a kind of spontaneous combustion of remaining coal risk evaluating method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that provide Classical field Rj, section domain Rp
With matter-element R to be evaluatedW。
5. a kind of spontaneous combustion of remaining coal risk evaluating method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that profit evaluation model and cost type are subordinate to
Function is respectively as shown in formula (4) and (5)：
Wherein：v′wk：K-th evaluation index value after normalizing；vwk：Without k-th evaluation index value of normalizing；max(vpk)：Comment for k-th
Valency index section domain maximum；min(vpk)：K-th evaluation index section domain minimum of a value.
6. a kind of spontaneous combustion of remaining coal risk evaluating method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that each evaluation of spontaneous combustion risk refers to
Correlation function value is marked with corresponding weighted value to determine extension relativity, then matter-element v to be evaluatedwkThe correlation function of jth grade
As shown in formula (6)：
In formula：D=j or p, ρ (vwk, vdk) be used for representing a little to interval distance.
7. a kind of spontaneous combustion of remaining coal risk evaluating method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that can be different using y kinds
Method carries out tax power to evaluation index respectively, so as to obtain y evaluation criterion weight vector：ui=(ui1,ui2,…,uim),(i
=1,2 ..., k), shown in its any linear combination such as formula (7), formula (7) is optimized, make u and each uiDeviation it is minimum
Change, its optimal conditions is formula (8), according to the property of matrix differential, formula (8) equivalence is converted into into the linear equation of first derivative
Group, as shown in formula (9), solution equation group obtains vectorial (α1,α2,…,αk), and then formula (10) is obtained, finally give weight such as formula
(11)：
8. a kind of spontaneous combustion of remaining coal risk evaluating method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that obtain to be evaluated according to formula (6)
The extension relativity of spontaneous combustion risk assessment grade j of sample, as shown in formula (12)：
In formula：uk *For weighted value of k-th index in whole evaluation index；Kj(vwk) it is matter-element v to be evaluatedwkUnder jth grade
The correlation function value of k-th evaluation index；
According to degree of association maximum principle, matter-element to be evaluated is determined by the maximum of evaluation index extension relativity, such as formula (13) institute
Show：
Understand that grade to be evaluated is j by formula (13)0, for the intensity of variation for more accurately determining grade and its between different stage, can
Weighed with grade variables characteristic value j*, as shown in formula (14).
In formula:
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Cited By (5)
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| CN106897555A (en) * | 2017-02-22 | 2017-06-27 | 辽宁工程技术大学 | A kind of evaluation method of open coal mine gaseous environment |
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| CN110490370A (en) * | 2019-07-26 | 2019-11-22 | 山东大学 | A kind of rock burst Comprehensive Prediction Method |
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| CN114496104A (en) * | 2022-04-02 | 2022-05-13 | 中国矿业大学(北京) | Method and system for evaluating spontaneous combustion degree of residual coal in goaf under coal mining condition |
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Cited By (6)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN106897555A (en) * | 2017-02-22 | 2017-06-27 | 辽宁工程技术大学 | A kind of evaluation method of open coal mine gaseous environment |
| CN107316503A (en) * | 2017-06-28 | 2017-11-03 | 中国电子科技集团公司第二十八研究所 | A kind of congestion focus space domain sector recognition methods based on multistage matter-element entropy weight |
| CN110490370A (en) * | 2019-07-26 | 2019-11-22 | 山东大学 | A kind of rock burst Comprehensive Prediction Method |
| CN114399184A (en) * | 2022-01-04 | 2022-04-26 | 南开大学 | Chemical enterprise environmental risk evaluation method and system |
| CN114496104A (en) * | 2022-04-02 | 2022-05-13 | 中国矿业大学(北京) | Method and system for evaluating spontaneous combustion degree of residual coal in goaf under coal mining condition |
| CN114496104B (en) * | 2022-04-02 | 2022-06-28 | 中国矿业大学(北京) | Method and system for evaluating spontaneous combustion degree of residual coal in goaf under coal mining condition |
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