CN106651064A - Screening method and risk evaluation method for concerned problems on in-operation nuclear power plant lifecycle management - Google Patents
Screening method and risk evaluation method for concerned problems on in-operation nuclear power plant lifecycle management Download PDFInfo
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- CN106651064A CN106651064A CN201510716104.7A CN201510716104A CN106651064A CN 106651064 A CN106651064 A CN 106651064A CN 201510716104 A CN201510716104 A CN 201510716104A CN 106651064 A CN106651064 A CN 106651064A
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- power plant
- component failure
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
- Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
- Y04S10/00—Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
- Y04S10/50—Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications
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Abstract
A screening method and a risk evaluation method for concerned problems on in-operation nuclear power plant lifecycle management are disclosed. The screening method comprises the following steps: in step S1, all power plant problems Q1-Qn are collected; in step S2, steps from S3 to S6 are performed for each power plant problem Qi; in step S3, whether a preventive maintenance and solving strategy for the power plant problem Qi exists in a database is checked; if yes, a first screening standard is met; in step S4, the power plant problem Qi is subjected to consequence analysis; if the power plant problem Qi is a problem about known equipment with unacceptable consequences, a second screening standard is met; in step S5, predicted fund investment for solving the power plant problem Qi is calculated; a third screening standard is met if the predicted fund investment exceeds a preset amount of money; in step 6, if the power plant problem Qi meets one of the first standard and the second standard or only the third standard is met, the power plant problem Qi is determined as a concerned problem. According to the screening method and the risk evaluation method, possible consequences caused by the problems and costs for solving the problems are considered in concerned problem screening operation, the method is high in universality, and the concerned problems can be screened out in a simple and effective manner.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to nuclear power plant's longevity period management technical field, more particularly to one kind is in fortune nuclear power plant longevity period management
The screening technique and risk evaluating method of concerned issue.
Background technology
As power plant's problem is constantly produced, problem is collected and can not possibly be continued for, while longevity period management is annual all
Needs carry out a liter version, it is therefore necessary to bound problem acquisition time, sort out report in time, are easy to longevity period management
The development of follow-up work.It is therefore desirable to setting up unified problem screening technique, it is easy to follow-up longevity period management to close
Note case study and solution.
And, in prior art after concerned issue inventory is got, skill is not carried out to the problem on inventory
Art is analyzed and risk assessment, therefore, it is not clear that the problem that equipment is present has much and causes actual consequence
Risk.
Therefore, prior art existing defects, need to improve.
The content of the invention
The technical problem to be solved in the present invention is, for the drawbacks described above of prior art, there is provided a kind of in fortune
The screening technique and risk evaluating method of nuclear power plant's longevity period management concerned issue.
The technical solution adopted for the present invention to solve the technical problems is：Construction is a kind of in fortune nuclear power plant's phase in longevity pipe
The screening technique of reason concerned issue, including：
The ginseng of S1, the internal operation empirical data according to the fortune nuclear power plant and performance data and other nuclear power plants
Data are examined, all of power plant's problem Q is gathered1-Qn；
S2, for each power plant's problem QiExecution step S3-S6；
Whether there is power plant's problem Q in S3, inquiry data baseiPreventative maintenance resolution policy, in full
According to there is power plant Q in storehouseiPreventative maintenance resolution policy, then power plant's problem QiMeet screening mark
Accurate one；
S4, to power plant's problem QiCarry out consequences analysis, such as power plant's problem QiBelong to consequence unacceptable
Know plant issue, then power plant's problem QiMeet screening criteria two；
S5, calculating solve the problems, such as power plant QiEstimated fund input, such as solve the problems, such as power plant QiEstimated money
Gold input exceedes preset cost, then power plant's problem QiMeet screening criteria three；
If S6, power plant's problem QiMeet any one of standard one and standard two, or only meet mark
Accurate three, then judge power plant's problem QiFor concerned issue.
Of the present invention in the screening technique of fortune nuclear power plant longevity period management concerned issue, the step
Data in S1 be one it is annual in data.
The invention also discloses a kind of risk evaluating method in fortune nuclear power plant longevity period management concerned issue, including：
S100, concern is filtered out based on the described screening technique in fortune nuclear power plant longevity period management concerned issue ask
Topic；
S200, the part being related to concerned issue carry out component failure probability analyses and component failure consequences analysis,
Wherein, component failure probability and component failure consequence are divided into high, medium and low Three Estate；
S300, the risk class that concerned issue is determined according to analysis result.
Of the present invention in fortune nuclear power plant longevity period management concerned issue risk evaluating method, described root
Determine that according to analysis result the risk class of concerned issue includes：
Excessive risk rank：It is high-grade that component failure consequence is high-grade and component failure probability；Or, portion
It is middle grade that part failure consequence is high-grade and component failure probability；Or, component failure consequence is middle grade
And component failure probability is high-grade；
Risk rank：It is inferior grade that component failure consequence is high-grade and component failure probability；Or, portion
Part failure consequence is middle grade and component failure probability is middle grade；Or, component failure consequence is inferior grade
And component failure probability is high-grade；
Low-risk rank：Component failure consequence is inferior grade and component failure probability is middle grade；Or, portion
Part failure consequence is middle grade and component failure probability is inferior grade；Or, component failure consequence is inferior grade
And component failure probability is inferior grade；
Control unknown risks rank：Component failure consequence and component failure probability cannot determine.
Of the present invention in fortune nuclear power plant longevity period management concerned issue risk evaluating method, described portion
Part Failure Probability Analysis include：The inside and outside failure event of statistics same item, for each part to be analyzed,
Based on below equation calculating unit failure probability：
Wherein, P represents the component failure probability of part to be analyzed, and N1 represents the inside and outside of part to be analyzed and loses
The quantity of effect event, N1 represent the inside and outside failure event of the same item corresponding to part to be analyzed
Total quantity；
Component failure consequences analysis includes：Analysis component failure is can use to nuclear safety, equipment dependability, unit
The impact of rate.
Of the present invention in fortune nuclear power plant longevity period management concerned issue risk evaluating method, component failure
Probability is more than 50%, then for high-grade, component failure probability is 10-50%, then be middle grade, component failure
Probability is less than greatly 10%, then be inferior grade；Component failure consequence is emergency shut-down, shuts down more than 5 days, subtracts
Carry more than 5%, then for high-grade；To produce I0, equipment is unavailable to be caused to shut down component failure consequence, then
For middle grade；Component failure consequence is not run for a long time to affect system health monitoring system index, then for low
Grade.
Implement the screening technique and risk evaluating method in fortune nuclear power plant longevity period management concerned issue of the present invention,
Have the advantages that：The present invention screening of concerned issue is considered the consequence that problem may cause and
Cost needed for solve problem, this method versatility are high, simple and effective can filter out concerned issue.And
And after concerned issue is filtered out, by component failure probability analyses and component failure consequence are carried out to part
The risk assessment to concerned issue is realized in analysis.
Description of the drawings
Below in conjunction with drawings and Examples, the invention will be further described, in accompanying drawing：
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the screening technique in fortune nuclear power plant longevity period management concerned issue of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is the flow chart of the risk evaluating method in fortune nuclear power plant longevity period management concerned issue of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
In order to be more clearly understood to the technical characteristic of the present invention, purpose and effect, accompanying drawing is now compareed detailed
Describe the specific embodiment of the bright present invention in detail.
As shown in figure 1, being the flow process of the screening technique in fortune nuclear power plant longevity period management concerned issue of the present invention
Figure.The screening technique in fortune nuclear power plant longevity period management concerned issue of the present invention, mainly includes：
The ginseng of S1, the internal operation empirical data according to the fortune nuclear power plant and performance data and other nuclear power plants
Data are examined, all of power plant's problem Q is gathered1-Qn, n is the positive integer more than 1；
Preferably, data be one it is annual in data, i.e., collection date of expiry of annual problem be to
In the end of the year of previous year, problem collection is such as carried out within 2015, it is 2014.12.31 that problem collects Desistance time limit
Day.
S2, for each power plant's problem QiExecution step S3-S6, i=1,2 ... n；
Whether there is power plant's problem Q in S3, inquiry data baseiPreventative maintenance resolution policy, in full
According to there is power plant Q in storehouseiPreventative maintenance resolution policy, then power plant's problem QiMeet screening mark
Accurate one；
S4, to power plant's problem QiCarry out consequences analysis, such as power plant's problem QiBelong to consequence unacceptable
Know plant issue, then power plant's problem QiMeet screening criteria two；
As consequence is generally divided into acceptable and unacceptable, concrete point of consequences analysis is carried out to power plant's problem
Analysis method refers to existing analysis method, and this is not limited, and consequences analysis herein is mainly to determine
Whether consequence is unacceptable.
S5, calculating solve the problems, such as power plant QiEstimated fund input, such as solve the problems, such as power plant QiEstimated money
Gold input exceedes preset cost, then power plant's problem QiMeet screening criteria three；Preferably, it is described default
The amount of money is 800,000 RMB.
Calculating solve the problems, such as equipment that the estimated fund input of power plant can be related to according to power plant's problem price,
The many-sides such as maintenance duration, labour cost are calculated.
If S6, power plant's problem QiMeet any one of standard one and standard two, or only meet mark
Accurate three, then judge power plant's problem QiFor concerned issue.
Specifically, in step S1, if referring to internal operation empirical data and performance data, it is mainly
Obtained based on herein below：
A) maintenance work report
B) routine test report
C) the long daily paper of value
D) pacify work weekly
E) inservice inspection report
F) basic reason analysis report
G) 24 hours event lists
H) NG advice note
I) run case (LOER) report
J) internal event (IOER) report
K) unit is lengthened the life assessment report
L) PSR assessment reports (security control requirement)
M) other
The reference data of other nuclear power plants can also be referred in step S1, because the problem existed in industry can
Can be not yet present in this power plant, these information can provide early warning for imminent problem.Other nuclear powers
The reference data of factory is mainly based upon herein below acquisition：
N) other nuclear power plants (country) plant issue
O) conventional power plant same category of device run case feedback
P) other industry same category of device Operation event report
Q) academia research report
R) supplier's suggestion
S) EOER external events report
T) WANO event notifications
u)EDF/AREVA
V) the general mail of NRC, communication, supervision is instructed and is announced
W) EPRI reports, meeting and investigation meeting
X) NUREG reports
Y) IAEA reports
Z) INPO ICES data bases
Aa) other sources
After concerned issue is filtered out, technical Analysis and risk assessment, concerned issue technology can be carried out to which
Analysis is specifically included：
The reason for S10, judgement concerned issue, simultaneously carries out causality classification, and classification includes：External demand, design
Reason, the performance degradation for normally causing using aging, historical failure, safeguard that unreasonable, spare part cannot be purchased.
For example, external demand has nuclear facility goal, grid requirements, specification forces clause etc.；If
Meter reason includes：System design reason, equipment principle defect itself, equipment and materials are added from mistake, equipment
Work low precision or wiring mode are unreasonable etc.；The performance degradation that historical failure causes includes：Equipment causes
Failure, failure caused by artificial origin；Safeguard it is unreasonable including：The periodic inspection time limit is long or excessive dimension
Repair, lack necessary monitoring meanss etc..
S20, the importance and urgency that judge concerned issue.
Judge the importance of concerned issue, be mainly to determine equipment, part that concerned issue is related in system work(
Importance in energy, mainly judges to herein below：Judge whether to affect nuclear safety, judge whether
Industrial safety is affected, judged whether to affect environmental conservation, judged whether that impact unit generation ability, judgement are
No impact systemic-function is performed.Judge whether that the standard for affecting is " directly affecting " rather than remote-effects, i.e.,
Fault mode is assumed by single failure criteria.
Judge the urgency of concerned issue, be divided into according to degree from high in the end：
1) feasible scheme has been determined, and has implemented in single unit, worked well；
2) scheme and plan verified in other power stations of feasible process has been determined, but has not yet implemented；
3) feasible scheme and plan have been determined, but have not yet implemented；
4) existing alternative, but feasibility cannot be confirmed by external feedback；
5) basic reason is not clear, there is no scheme, but carries out related subject study；
6) problem for finding in the recent period or potential problems, not yet start Substantial technical work；
7) occur in recently one or two refulling cycle, make equipment performance occur obvious deterioration problem or
Trend, and the not clear problem of basic reason；
Based on above-mentioned concerned issue screening technique, the invention also discloses one kind is in fortune nuclear power plant longevity period management
The risk evaluating method of concerned issue, is the present invention in fortune nuclear power plant longevity period management concerned issue with reference to Fig. 2
Risk evaluating method flow chart, the risk evaluating method includes：
S100, concern is filtered out based on the described screening technique in fortune nuclear power plant longevity period management concerned issue ask
Topic；
S200, the part being related to concerned issue carry out component failure probability analyses and component failure consequences analysis,
Wherein, component failure consequences analysis includes：Analysis component fails to nuclear safety, equipment dependability, unit can
With the impact of rate.
Wherein, component failure probability and component failure consequence are divided into high, medium and low Three Estate：Part loses
Effect probability is more than 50%, then for high-grade, component failure probability is 10-50%, then be middle grade, and part loses
Effect probability is less than greatly 10%, then be inferior grade；Component failure consequence is emergency shut-down, is shut down more than 5 days,
Off-load is more than 5%, then for high-grade；To produce I0, equipment is unavailable to be caused to shut down component failure consequence,
It is then middle grade；Component failure consequence for affect system health monitoring system index, do not run for a long time, then for
Inferior grade.
S300, the risk class that concerned issue is determined according to analysis result.
Wherein, reference table 1, is the risk level assessment table of concerned issue, with 1,2,3 difference tables in table
Show excessive risk rank, risk rank, low-risk rank.With reference to table 1, described is true according to analysis result
The risk class for determining concerned issue includes：
Excessive risk rank：It is high-grade that component failure consequence is high-grade and component failure probability；Or, portion
It is middle grade that part failure consequence is high-grade and component failure probability；Or, component failure consequence is middle grade
And component failure probability is high-grade；
Risk rank：It is inferior grade that component failure consequence is high-grade and component failure probability；Or, portion
Part failure consequence is middle grade and component failure probability is middle grade；Or, component failure consequence is inferior grade
And component failure probability is high-grade；
Low-risk rank：Component failure consequence is inferior grade and component failure probability is middle grade；Or, portion
Part failure consequence is middle grade and component failure probability is inferior grade；Or, component failure consequence is inferior grade
And component failure probability is inferior grade；
The risk level assessment table of 1 concerned issue of table
Control unknown risks rank：Component failure consequence and component failure probability cannot determine.Mainly there are two kinds of situations,
One kind is that failure probability and failure consequence are uncertain, or mitigation strategy is unclear；Another kind is that failure is general
Rate and failure consequence it was determined that but the enforcement of long-period of management action also do not know, cause failure probability and mistake
The change of effect consequence does not know.
Specifically, in step S200, described component failure probability analyses are specially：Statistics same item
Inside and outside failure event, for each part to be analyzed, based on below equation calculating unit failure probability：
Wherein, P represents the component failure probability of part to be analyzed, and N1 represents the inside and outside of part to be analyzed and loses
The quantity of effect event, N1 represent the inside and outside failure event of the same item corresponding to part to be analyzed
Total quantity.
In sum, the screening technique and risk in fortune nuclear power plant longevity period management concerned issue of the present invention are implemented
Evaluation methodology, has the advantages that：Screening of the present invention to concerned issue considers problem and may cause
Consequence and solve problem needed for cost, this method versatility is high, simple and effective can filter out pass
Note problem.And after concerned issue is filtered out, by carrying out component failure probability analyses and portion to part
The risk assessment to concerned issue is realized in the analysis of part failure consequence.
Embodiments of the invention are described above in conjunction with accompanying drawing, but be the invention is not limited in above-mentioned
Specific embodiment, above-mentioned specific embodiment be only it is schematic rather than restricted, this
The those of ordinary skill in field is being protected without departing from present inventive concept and claim under the enlightenment of the present invention
Under the ambit of shield, many forms can be also made, these are belonged within the protection of the present invention.
Claims (6)
1. it is a kind of in the screening technique for transporting nuclear power plant's longevity period management concerned issue, it is characterised in that to include：
The ginseng of S1, the internal operation empirical data according to the fortune nuclear power plant and performance data and other nuclear power plants
Data are examined, all of power plant's problem Q is gathered1-Qn；
S2, for each power plant's problem QiExecution step S3-S6；
Whether there is power plant's problem Q in S3, inquiry data baseiPreventative maintenance resolution policy, in full
According to there is power plant Q in storehouseiPreventative maintenance resolution policy, then power plant's problem QiMeet screening mark
Accurate one；
S4, to power plant's problem QiCarry out consequences analysis, such as power plant's problem QiBelong to consequence unacceptable
Know plant issue, then power plant's problem QiMeet screening criteria two；
S5, calculating solve the problems, such as power plant QiEstimated fund input, such as solve the problems, such as power plant QiEstimated money
Gold input exceedes preset cost, then power plant's problem QiMeet screening criteria three；
If S6, power plant's problem QiMeet any one of standard one and standard two, or only meet mark
Accurate three, then judge power plant's problem QiFor concerned issue.
2. according to claim 1 in the screening technique for transporting nuclear power plant's longevity period management concerned issue, its
Be characterised by, the data in step S1 be one it is annual in data.
3. it is a kind of in the risk evaluating method for transporting nuclear power plant's longevity period management concerned issue, it is characterised in that bag
Include：
S100, based on the sieve described in any one of claim 1-2 in fortune nuclear power plant longevity period management concerned issue
Choosing method filters out concerned issue；
S200, the part being related to concerned issue carry out component failure probability analyses and component failure consequences analysis,
Wherein, component failure probability and component failure consequence are divided into high, medium and low Three Estate；
S300, the risk class that concerned issue is determined according to analysis result.
4. according to claim 3 in fortune nuclear power plant longevity period management concerned issue risk evaluating method,
Characterized in that, according to analysis result, described determines that the risk class of concerned issue includes：
Excessive risk rank：It is high-grade that component failure consequence is high-grade and component failure probability；Or, portion
It is middle grade that part failure consequence is high-grade and component failure probability；Or, component failure consequence is middle grade
And component failure probability is high-grade；
Risk rank：It is inferior grade that component failure consequence is high-grade and component failure probability；Or, portion
Part failure consequence is middle grade and component failure probability is middle grade；Or, component failure consequence is inferior grade
And component failure probability is high-grade；
Low-risk rank：Component failure consequence is inferior grade and component failure probability is middle grade；Or, portion
Part failure consequence is middle grade and component failure probability is inferior grade；Or, component failure consequence is inferior grade
And component failure probability is inferior grade；
Control unknown risks rank：Component failure consequence and component failure probability cannot determine.
5. according to claim 3 in the risk evaluating method for transporting nuclear power plant's longevity period management concerned issue,
Characterized in that,
Described component failure probability analyses include：The inside and outside failure event of statistics same item, for every
Individual part to be analyzed, based on below equation calculating unit failure probability：
Wherein, P represents the component failure probability of part to be analyzed, and N1 represents the inside and outside of part to be analyzed and loses
The quantity of effect event, N1 represent the inside and outside failure event of the same item corresponding to part to be analyzed
Total quantity；
Component failure consequences analysis includes：Analysis component failure is can use to nuclear safety, equipment dependability, unit
The impact of rate.
6. according to claim 3 in the risk evaluating method for transporting nuclear power plant's longevity period management concerned issue,
Characterized in that, component failure probability is more than 50%, then for high-grade, component failure probability is 10-50%,
It is then middle grade, component failure probability is less than greatly 10%, then be inferior grade；Component failure consequence is promptly to stop
Heap, shut down more than 5 days, and off-load is more than 5%, then for high-grade；Component failure consequence is generation I0, if
Cause to shut down for unavailable, be then middle grade；Component failure consequence is impact system health monitoring system index,
Do not run for a long time, be then inferior grade.
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Application publication date: 20170510 |