CN106598026A - Power transmission equipment state maintenance time detection method and apparatus - Google Patents
Power transmission equipment state maintenance time detection method and apparatus Download PDFInfo
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- CN106598026A CN106598026A CN201611160937.0A CN201611160937A CN106598026A CN 106598026 A CN106598026 A CN 106598026A CN 201611160937 A CN201611160937 A CN 201611160937A CN 106598026 A CN106598026 A CN 106598026A
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- G—PHYSICS
- G05—CONTROLLING; REGULATING
- G05B—CONTROL OR REGULATING SYSTEMS IN GENERAL; FUNCTIONAL ELEMENTS OF SUCH SYSTEMS; MONITORING OR TESTING ARRANGEMENTS FOR SUCH SYSTEMS OR ELEMENTS
- G05B23/00—Testing or monitoring of control systems or parts thereof
- G05B23/02—Electric testing or monitoring
- G05B23/0205—Electric testing or monitoring by means of a monitoring system capable of detecting and responding to faults
- G05B23/0259—Electric testing or monitoring by means of a monitoring system capable of detecting and responding to faults characterized by the response to fault detection
- G05B23/0283—Predictive maintenance, e.g. involving the monitoring of a system and, based on the monitoring results, taking decisions on the maintenance schedule of the monitored system; Estimating remaining useful life [RUL]
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Abstract
The invention relates to a power transmission equipment state maintenance time detection method and apparatus. The method comprises the following steps: reading the state evaluation value of the current time of the power transmission equipment; calculating the equivalent running time of the power transmission equipment after the last maintenance when the state evaluation value is greater than or equal to a preset first threshold value; then calculating the equivalent running time of the power transmission equipment at the current time; and obtaining the state maintenance time of the power transmission equipment from the current time based on the equivalent running time after the last maintenance and the equivalent running time at the current time. The method and apparatus of the present invention can determine the state maintenance time of the power transmission equipment from the current time when the state evaluation value is greater than or equal to a preset first threshold value, and solve the problem that in the current state maintenance mode, the actual maintenance cycle of the power transmission equipment can not be obtained and that it is difficult to obtain the state maintenance time of the power transmission equipment from the current time.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to field electric power technical field, more particularly to a kind of power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time inspection
Survey method and apparatus.
Background technology
Basic component units of the power transmission and transforming equipment as electrical network, mainly include transformator etc. and low-voltage are risen to high voltage
Equipment, its running status has material impact to the safe and stable operation and power supply reliability of electrical network.
Tradition is to the maintenance of power transmission and transforming equipment typically in the maximum time interval for closing on power transmission and transforming equipment periodic inspection
When carry out, be referred to as scheduled overhaul pattern in such maintenance model industry.Traditional scheduled overhaul pattern cannot be according to power transmission and transformation
The state of equipment determines the repair time, causes " maintenance is not enough " and is easily caused and cannot overhaul in time, causes power grid accident.In addition
On the one hand, in order to avoid power grid accident easily artificially increases maintenance number of times, cause to cause to repeat maintenance because of " maintenance is excessive ".
Compared with scheduled overhaul pattern, Maintenance Mode with the current practical working situation of equipment as foundation, to failure
Position, fault severity level and development trend are judged, and artificially determine the maintenance opportunity of each part.Repair based on condition of component is to a certain degree
On avoid in scheduled overhaul module the defect of " maintenance is not enough " and " maintenance is excessively ".The state inspection that engineering is adopted in practice at present
Repair be mainly based upon power transmission and transforming equipment health status evaluation make repair based on condition of component decision, though Maintenance Mode be easy to engineering should
With but still the power transmission and transforming equipment actual time between overhauls(TBO) cannot be obtained, it is difficult to know that power transmission and transforming equipment started from current time
The repair based on condition of component time.
The content of the invention
Based on this, it is necessary to provide a kind of power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detecting side for the problem in conventional art
Method, the method can obtain the repair based on condition of component time that power transmission and transforming equipment started from current time.
A kind of power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detecting method, comprises the steps：
Read state evaluation value X at power transmission and transforming equipment current time(k-1)s, wherein, the state estimation value at the current time
X(k-1)sFor power transmission and transforming equipment after the maintenance of kth -1 time the state evaluation value of the s time；
In state evaluation value X(k-1)sMore than or equal to default first threshold value X0In the case of, read power transmission and transformation and set
The standby equivalent run time after -2 maintenance of kthEquivalent run time before -1 maintenance of kthAnd kth -1
The equivalent run time of the s-1 time after secondary maintenance
According to equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment after -2 maintenance of kthBefore -1 maintenance of kth
Equivalent run timeCalculate equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment after -1 maintenance of kth
According to the power transmission and transforming equipment after the maintenance of kth -1 time the equivalent run time of the s-1 timeWith it is current when
State evaluation value X at quarter(k-1)sCalculate equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment at current time
According to the equivalent run time after -1 maintenance of the kthWith the equivalent run time at the current timeCalculate the repair based on condition of component time for obtaining that power transmission and transforming equipment started from current time.
Correspondingly, the present invention also provides a kind of power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detection device, including such as lower module：
First read module, for reading state evaluation value X at power transmission and transforming equipment current time(k-1)s, wherein, it is described to work as
State estimation value X at front moment(k-1)sFor power transmission and transforming equipment after the maintenance of kth -1 time the state evaluation value of the s time；
Second read module, in state evaluation value X(k-1)sMore than or equal to default first threshold value X0Feelings
Under condition, equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment after -2 maintenance of kth is obtainedEquivalent operation before -1 maintenance of kth
TimeAnd the equivalent run time of the s-1 time after the maintenance of kth -1 time
Very first time computing module, for the equivalent run time according to the power transmission and transforming equipment after -2 maintenance of kthWith the equivalent run time before -1 maintenance of kthCalculate equivalent operation of the power transmission and transforming equipment after -1 maintenance of kth
Time
Second Time Calculation module, for according to the power transmission and transforming equipment after the maintenance of kth -1 time the equivalent fortune of the s-1 time
The row timeWith state evaluation value X at current time(k-1)sCalculate equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment at current time
Repair time computing module, for according to the equivalent run time after -1 maintenance of the kthWork as with described
The equivalent run time at front momentCalculate the repair based on condition of component time for obtaining that power transmission and transforming equipment started from current time.
The present invention reads state evaluation value X at power transmission and transforming equipment current time first(k-1)s, then judge that the state is commented
Value X(k-1)sWhether default first threshold value X is more than or equal to0If then continuing to read power transmission and transforming equipment in -2 inspections of kth
Equivalent run time after repairingEquivalent run time before -1 maintenance of kthAnd s-1 after -1 maintenance of kth
Secondary equivalent run timeThen, the equivalent run time according to power transmission and transforming equipment after -2 maintenance of kth
With the equivalent run time before -1 maintenance of kthCalculate equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment after -1 maintenance of kthMeanwhile, according to the power transmission and transforming equipment after the maintenance of kth -1 time the equivalent run time of the s-1 timeWith it is current
State evaluation value X at moment(k-1)sCalculate equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment at current timeFinally, according to described
Equivalent run time after -1 maintenance of kthWith the equivalent run time at the current timeCalculate and obtain defeated change
The repair based on condition of component time that electric equipment started from current time.Power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detecting side of the present invention
Method, can be in state evaluation value X(k-1)sMore than or equal to default first threshold value X0In the case of determine power transmission and transforming equipment from
The repair based on condition of component time that current time starts, the actual inspection of power transmission and transforming equipment in solving current state maintenance model, cannot be obtained
Repair the cycle, it is difficult to obtain the defect of the repair based on condition of component time that power transmission and transforming equipment started from current time, further reduce " inspection
Repair excessively " probability, improve the efficiency of power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is a kind of first embodiment flow chart of power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detecting method of the invention；
Fig. 2 is a kind of second embodiment flow chart of power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detecting method of the invention；
Fig. 3 is the 3rd embodiment flow chart of a kind of power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detecting method of the invention；
Fig. 4 is the 4th embodiment flow chart of a kind of power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detecting method of the invention；
Fig. 5 is the 5th embodiment flow chart of a kind of power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detecting method of the invention；
Fig. 6 is the structural representation in a kind of power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detection device one embodiment of the invention
Figure；
Fig. 7 is the structural representation in second embodiment of a kind of power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detection device of the invention
Figure；
Fig. 8 is the structural representation in a kind of 3rd embodiment of power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detection device of the invention
Figure；
Fig. 9 is that the structure in a kind of last embodiment of power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detection device of the invention is shown
It is intended to.
Specific embodiment
Present disclosure is described in further detail below in conjunction with preferred embodiment and accompanying drawing.Obviously, hereafter institute
The embodiment of description is only used for explaining the present invention, rather than limitation of the invention.Based on the embodiment in the present invention, this area is general
The every other embodiment obtained under the premise of creative work is not made by logical technical staff, belongs to present invention protection
Scope.
Although it should be appreciated that hereinafter using term " first ", " second " etc. describing various information, these
Information should not necessarily be limited by these terms, and these terms are only for same type of information is distinguished from each other out.For example, without departing from this
In the case of invention scope, " first " information can also be referred to as " second " information, similar, and " second " information can also be claimed
For " first " information.It also should be noted that, for the ease of description, in accompanying drawing, illustrate only part related to the present invention
Rather than full content.
Fig. 1 is a kind of flow process of the power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detecting method of the present invention in one embodiment
Schematic diagram, the power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detecting method of the present embodiment can be controlled by computer CPU, built-in industrial
The processing equipments such as device performing, such as PLC (Programmable Logic Controller programmable type logic controllers),
ARM controller (Acorn RISC Machine), FPGA (Field-Programmable Gate Array, field-programmable
Gate array) etc..
As shown in figure 1, the power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detecting method in the present embodiment, comprises the following steps：
S110：Read state evaluation value X at power transmission and transforming equipment current time(k-1)s；
Wherein, state estimation value X at the current time(k-1)sIt is power transmission and transforming equipment the s time after the maintenance of kth -1 time
State evaluation value；
The state evaluation value is used for the health status for characterizing single power transmission and transforming equipment.Assume power transmission and transforming equipment from putting into operation
So far have passed through k-1 maintenance, and the state evaluation at current time be that the power transmission and transforming equipment is carried out after -1 maintenance of kth the
S next states are evaluated, in the present invention by the state evaluation value X at current time(k-1)sRepresent, wherein k-1 is represented from putting into operation
So far the maintenance number of times for passing through, the state evaluation number of times that s carries out after representing -1 maintenance of kth.
The embodiment of the present invention can be calculated using health status evaluation methodology in existing Maintenance Mode and obtain defeated change
State evaluation value of the electric equipment at current time, those skilled in the art can also obtain current time by other means to be used for
Characterize the state evaluation value of the health status of single power transmission and transforming equipment.
S120：In state evaluation value X(k-1)sMore than or equal to default first threshold value X0In the case of, read defeated change
Equivalent run time of the electric equipment after -2 maintenance of kthEquivalent run time before -1 maintenance of kthAnd the
The equivalent run time of the s-1 time after k-1 maintenance
According to state evaluation value X(k-1)sJudge the power transmission and transforming equipment whether less than the health status threshold for needing maintenance
Value, for convenience of describing, claims the health status threshold value to be referred to as the first threshold value X in the present invention0.Wherein, the first threshold value X0Can
To be a definite value, for example, can be obtained by existing electric power code, further the first threshold value X0Representative value can be with
It is 80.If state evaluation value X(k-1)sLess than the first threshold value X0, illustrate that the power transmission and transforming equipment health status are poor, go out
The probability of existing failure is high, then directly generate maintenance warning signal, to point out staff to overhaul the power transmission and transforming equipment.
If state evaluation value X(k-1)sMore than or equal to default first threshold value X0, then illustrate that the power transmission and transformation set
Standby health status preferably, need to further determine that the repair based on condition of component time that power transmission and transforming equipment started from current time, now the present invention
Embodiment reads following parameter, further to calculate：Equivalent run time after the last maintenance of power transmission and transforming equipment, that is,
Equivalent run time after -2 maintenance of kthEquivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment before upper once maintenance, i.e.,
Equivalent run time before -1 maintenance of kthAnd equivalent operation during power transmission and transforming equipment last time health state evaluation
The equivalent run time of the s-1 time after time, i.e. -1 maintenance of kthWherein, d refers to d platform power transmission and transforming equipments.
S130：According to equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment after -2 maintenance of kthWith -1 maintenance of kth
Front equivalent run timeCalculate equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment after -1 maintenance of kth
The equivalent run time refers to the equivalent fortune of power transmission and transforming equipment calculated acquisition on default failure rate model
Row time, such as a certain transformator have been run 9 years before first time overhauls, but are counted on default failure rate model
The equivalent run time for arriving calculated but is 8.5 years.
If k-2 or k-1 is less than or equal to zero, equivalent run timeAlso it is zero.Power transmission and transforming equipment is through maintenance so that
The characteristics of power transmission and transforming equipment has maintenance enlistment age rollback, equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment after -1 maintenance of kth
Equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment before -1 maintenance of kth should be less than
In the embodiment of the present invention, according to equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment after -2 maintenance of kthWith
Equivalent run time before -1 maintenance of kthAcquisition Backoff time parameter can first be calculated.
Then, by the equivalent run time before -1 maintenance of kthDeduct the Backoff time Parameters Calculation and obtain power transmission and transformation
Equivalent run time of the equipment after -1 maintenance of kth
S140：According to the power transmission and transforming equipment after the maintenance of kth -1 time the equivalent run time of the s-1 timeWith work as
State evaluation value X at front moment(k-1)sCalculate equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment at current time
Especially, if s is equal to zero, the equivalent run time of power transmission and transforming equipment the 0th time after the maintenance of kth -1 time (i.e. the
Initial equivalent run time after k-1 maintenance)Equal to equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment after -2 maintenance of kthFormula is expressed as
In s more than or equal to for the moment, the embodiment of the present invention is according to the power transmission and transforming equipment the s-1 time after -1 maintenance of kth
Equivalent run timeWith state evaluation value X at current time(k-1)sCalculated using default equivalent algorithm and obtain defeated change
Equivalent run time of the electric equipment at current time
S150：According to the equivalent run time after -1 maintenance of the kthWith the equivalent operation at the current time
TimeCalculate the repair based on condition of component time for obtaining that power transmission and transforming equipment started from current time.
Using the equivalent run time after -1 maintenance of the calculated kth of S130 and S104Work as with described
The equivalent run time at front momentSubstitute into default repair based on condition of component time formula the power transmission and transforming equipment is calculated from current
The repair based on condition of component time that moment starts.
The present invention reads state evaluation value X at power transmission and transforming equipment current time first(k-1)s, then judge that the state is commented
Value X(k-1)sWhether default first threshold value X is more than or equal to0If then continuing to read power transmission and transforming equipment in -2 inspections of kth
Equivalent run time after repairingEquivalent run time before -1 maintenance of kthAnd s-1 after -1 maintenance of kth
Secondary equivalent run timeThen, the equivalent run time according to power transmission and transforming equipment after -2 maintenance of kth
With the equivalent run time before -1 maintenance of kthCalculate equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment after -1 maintenance of kthMeanwhile, according to the power transmission and transforming equipment after the maintenance of kth -1 time the equivalent run time of the s-1 timeWith it is current
State evaluation value X at moment(k-1)sCalculate equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment at current timeFinally, according to described
Equivalent run time after -1 maintenance of kthWith the equivalent run time at the current timeCalculate and obtain defeated change
The repair based on condition of component time that electric equipment started from current time.Power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detecting side of the present invention
Method, can be in state evaluation value X(k-1)sMore than or equal to default first threshold value X0In the case of determine power transmission and transforming equipment from
The repair based on condition of component time that current time starts, the actual inspection of power transmission and transforming equipment in solving current state maintenance model, cannot be obtained
Repair the cycle, it is difficult to know the defect of the repair based on condition of component time that power transmission and transforming equipment started from current time, further reduce " inspection
Repair excessively " probability, improve the efficiency of power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling.
In one embodiment, Fig. 2 is referred to, following S210-S220 can also be included before S110.
S210：The historical failure rate parameter of power transmission and transforming equipment is read, fault rate is generated according to the historical failure rate parameter
Basic model；
Wherein, the history crash rate parameter includes running the time limit and the fault rate corresponding with the operation time limit；
Can read in the embodiment of the present invention according to Time alignment acquisition order n group historical failure rate parameter, such as (t1,
λ1), (t2, λ2) ..., (tn, λn).Wherein, tnRepresent the operation time limit of power transmission and transforming equipment；λnRepresent power transmission and transforming equipment in operation year
It is limited to tnWhen fault rate.Then such power transmission and transforming equipment can be solved based on Weibull Function using method of least square
Form parameter α and scale parameter β in (i.e. formula (1)), generates the fault rate basic model of such power transmission and transforming equipment；
Wherein, t is run time.If additionally, scale parameter β=1 of a certain operation time limit, represents that power transmission and transforming equipment is in
Random failure period, then the corresponding fault rate of the operation time limit is constant；If the scale parameter β of a certain operation time limit>1, represent
Power transmission and transforming equipment is in the spoilage malfunction phase, then the corresponding fault rate of the operation time limit is in rising trend.
Below by taking a transformator as an example, it is illustrated.Following table is the model transformator in different operation time limit institutes
Corresponding fault rate.
Form parameter α and scale parameter β in formula (1), when calculating when t≤15, chi are solved using method of least square
Degree parameter beta=1, λ (t)=0.0169.As t ＞ 15, scale parameter β=4.551, form parameter α=28.1719.Finally, should
The fault rate basic model of power transmission and transforming equipment is：
S220：First mean free error time and the second mean free error time of power transmission and transforming equipment are obtained, according to described
First mean free error time, the second mean free error time and fault rate basic model generate physical fault rate curvilinear mold
Type.
First mean free error time is the individual actual average failure free time of the power transmission and transforming equipment, for example, inspection
Survey object is electrical network d platform 220KV transformators, then the first mean free error time was to unite for d platform 220KV transformators itself
The mean free error time that meter is obtained.
Second mean free error time is the mean free error time of similar power transmission and transforming equipment, for example, detection object
For electrical network d platform 220KV transformators, then the second mean free error time was the 220KV transformations for the production of multiple manufacturers
The mean free error time that device statistics is obtained.
The embodiment of the present invention first can be read by the statistical data provided according to the power transmission and transforming equipment manufacturer, the statistics
Data include model that the producer is producediThe actual useful year of platform power transmission and transforming equipment and i-th equipment actually make
With the number of stoppages occurred in the time limit.The mean free error time of the producer model power transmission and transforming equipment is calculated using formula (2)
MBTF0 is：
Wherein, TiRepresent the actual useful year of i-th power transmission and transforming equipment；CiRepresent that i-th power transmission and transforming equipment actually makes
With the number of stoppages occurred in the time limit；N represents the power transmission and transforming equipment quantity for participating in statistics.
On this basis, the mean free error time MBTF according to the similar power transmission and transforming equipment of each manufacturer1And step
Fault rate basic model λ (t) of the power transmission and transforming equipment obtained in S210, after formula (3) obtains amendment familial defect
Amendment bathtub curve model λ (t) ' of power transmission and transforming equipment is：
Further, according to the actual average failure free time MBTF that the power transmission and transforming equipment to be detected is individual2With MBTF0It is logical
Formula (4) is crossed, physical fault rate curve model λ (t) after the equipment amendment volume defect is obtained "：
Wherein, MBTF2=tk/n1, tkFor the power transmission and transforming equipment actual motion time limit to be detected；N1 is that this is to be detected
The number of stoppages that power transmission and transforming equipment has occurred.
Fig. 3 is referred to, which is the 3rd embodiment stream of a kind of power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detecting method of the invention
Cheng Tu.In the 3rd embodiment of the present invention, the S150 may comprise steps of S310-S320：
S310：The maximum periodic inspection interval of power transmission and transforming equipment is obtained, according to the maximum periodic inspection interval and the event
Barrier rate basic model calculates failure accumulated invalid probability；
The maximum periodic inspection interval of power transmission and transforming equipment is obtained, the maximum periodic inspection interval can be set by the power transmission and transformation
The maximum maintenance interval for being overhauled determined by standby manufacturer twice.For example, the 220KV transformators of first company production are examined twice
The interval repaiied cannot be greater than 10 years, also or the production of first company 220KV transformators overhaul to first time from startup optimization between
Every cannot be greater than 10 years, then the maximum periodic inspection of the power transmission and transforming equipment is at intervals of 10.The maximum periodic inspection interval can
To be obtained by user input, it is also possible to obtained by accessing the power transmission and transforming equipment information server of the value that is stored with, this area skill
Art personnel can also obtain the maximum periodic inspection interval of power transmission and transforming equipment by other means, and the embodiment of the present invention is not limited
System.
According to largest interval time and the formula (1) of power transmission and transforming equipment periodic inspection, the accumulative failure of failure is calculated by formula (5)
Probability, specifically, the failure accumulated invalid probability characterizes the type power transmission and transforming equipment in the accidental of its fault rate basic model
Failure accumulated invalid probability P after the expiration date operation largest interval timemax。
In formula, scale parameter β=1 of λ (t), i.e. λ (t)=1/ α.
S320：After the failure accumulated invalid probability, the physical fault rate curve model, -1 maintenance of the kth
Equivalent run timeWith the equivalent run time at the current timeSubstitute into default integral algorithm and calculate acquisition
The repair based on condition of component time that power transmission and transforming equipment started from current time；
S310 is calculated the embodiment of the present invention failure accumulated invalid probability P for obtainingmaxAs such power transmission and transforming equipment
Maintenance threshold value, by S220 obtain physical fault rate curve model λ (t) " (formula (5)), S130 calculate obtain institute
State the equivalent run time after -1 maintenance of kthAnd S140 calculate obtain the current time equivalent operation when
BetweenDefault integral model is substituted into, and solution is carried out to the integral model and power transmission and transforming equipment can be accurately obtained from current time
The repair based on condition of component time of beginning.
The integral model equal sign left end is the maintenance threshold value of such power transmission and transforming equipment, and equal sign right-hand member includes two-part product
Point, wherein, the integration of Part I is equivalent run time of the time from after -1 maintenance of the kthIt is extremely described current
The equivalent run time at momentTo physical fault rate curve model λ (t) " integration, Part II is the time from institute
State the equivalent run time at current timeThe repair based on condition of component time started from current time to power transmission and transforming equipment is to the reality
The integration on border bathtub curve model λ (t) ".Its formula is expressed as shown in formula (6), i.e., described integral algorithm is：
Wherein, Δ t is the repair based on condition of component time that the power transmission and transforming equipment started from current time, λ (t) " for the reality
Bathtub curve model, PmaxFor the failure accumulated invalid probability.
Fig. 4 is referred to, which is the 4th embodiment stream of a kind of power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detecting method of the invention
Cheng Tu.In the 4th embodiment of the method for the invention, above-mentioned S130 may comprise steps of S410.
S410：According to equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment after -2 maintenance of kthExamine with -1 time in kth
Equivalent run time before repairingUsing maintenance rollback revised law, calculating obtains power transmission and transforming equipment after -1 maintenance of kth
Equivalent run timeWherein, a is default maintenance service age reduction factor.
Power transmission and transforming equipment is through maintenance so that the characteristics of power transmission and transforming equipment has maintenance enlistment age rollback, power transmission and transforming equipment exists
Equivalent run time after -1 maintenance of kthEquivalent fortune of the power transmission and transforming equipment before -1 maintenance of kth should be less than
The row time
In embodiments of the present invention, using maintenance rollback revised law, calculating obtains power transmission and transforming equipment after -1 maintenance of kth
Equivalent run timeSpecifically, as shown in formula (6), the equivalent run timeEqual to the equivalent operation
TimeDeduct Backoff time parameter.The Backoff time parameter is equal to the equivalent run timeDeduct the equivalent fortune
The row timeThe time difference of acquisition is multiplied by default maintenance service age reduction factor again.
Wherein, a represents maintenance service age reduction factor, and its representative value can be 0.15.
Using maintenance rollback revised law, running status of the power transmission and transforming equipment before maintenance to after overhauling can be actually embodied,
Contribute to providing the accuracy of the repair based on condition of component time that the final power transmission and transforming equipment for obtaining started from current time.
As shown in figure 5, which is the 5th embodiment stream of a kind of power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detecting method of the invention
Cheng Tu.In the 5th embodiment of the method for the invention, S140 can further include following S510-S520.
S510：Read power transmission and transforming equipment s-1 next states after -1 maintenance of kth and evaluate to s next states the reality evaluated
The border state evaluation time, according to the virtual condition evaluation time and state evaluation value X at the current time(k-1)sCalculating is obtained
The time of obtaining supplements parameter；
Power transmission and transforming equipment is from last time state evaluation (i.e. s-1 next states are evaluated) after last maintenance to current time
The run time of (i.e. s next states are evaluated) can not simply use actual run time, to avoid what final calculating was obtained
Power transmission and transforming equipment is not accurate enough from the repair based on condition of component time that current time starts.
In the embodiment of the present invention, first read power transmission and transforming equipment s-1 next states after -1 maintenance of kth and evaluate to the s time
The virtual condition evaluation time Δ t of state evaluation(k-1)(s-1).Generally, the virtual condition evaluation time Δ t(k-1)(s-1)It is fixed
Value, according in existing electric power code regulation, the value is usually 0.5-1.The virtual condition evaluation time Δ t(k-1)(s-1)
Can be obtained by user input, it is also possible to obtained by accessing the power transmission and transforming equipment information server of the value that is stored with, this area
Technical staff can also obtain the maximum periodic inspection interval of power transmission and transforming equipment by other means, and the embodiment of the present invention is not limited
System.
By the virtual condition evaluation time Δ t(k-1)(s-1)With state evaluation value X at the current time(k-1)sSubstitute into pre-
The fixed time supplements parameter formula (such as formula (7)) and calculates the acquisition time supplement parameter.
Wherein,Tb
Parameter is supplemented for the time.
S520：The equivalent fortune of the s-1 time that the time is supplemented parameter and the power transmission and transforming equipment after -1 maintenance of kth
The row timeSummation, obtains equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment at current time
The time supplement parameter that S510 calculates acquisition is added and states power transmission and transforming equipment s-1 after -1 maintenance of kth
Secondary equivalent run timeThe equivalent run time of the sum for being obtained, as power transmission and transforming equipment at current time
Typical computing formula is as follows：
It should be strongly noted that as s=0, that is, illustrating that power transmission and transforming equipment does not also carry out reality after -1 maintenance of kth
State evaluation, now current time run timeEqual to equivalent run time of the equipment after -2 maintenance of kth
I.e.
It should be noted that for aforesaid each method embodiment, for easy description, which is all expressed as a series of
Combination of actions, but those skilled in the art should know, and the present invention is not limited by described sequence of movement, because according to
According to the present invention, some steps can adopt other orders or while carry out.
According to the method for the invention described above, the present invention also provides a kind of power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detection device,
Below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and preferred embodiment to the present invention power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detection device illustrate.
Fig. 6 is refer to, Fig. 6 is structural representation of the device of the present invention in one embodiment.As shown in fig. 6, should
Device in embodiment includes：
First read module 610, for reading state evaluation value X at power transmission and transforming equipment current time(k-1)s, wherein, it is described
State estimation value X at current time(k-1)sFor power transmission and transforming equipment after the maintenance of kth -1 time the state evaluation value of the s time；
Second read module 620, in state evaluation value X(k-1)sMore than or equal to default first threshold value X0
In the case of, obtain equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment after -2 maintenance of kthEquivalent fortune before -1 maintenance of kth
The row timeAnd the equivalent run time of the s-1 time after the maintenance of kth -1 time
Very first time computing module 630, for during the equivalent operation after the maintenance of kth -2 times according to the power transmission and transforming equipment
BetweenWith the equivalent run time before -1 maintenance of kthCalculate equivalent fortune of the power transmission and transforming equipment after -1 maintenance of kth
The row time
Second Time Calculation module 640, for according to the power transmission and transforming equipment after the maintenance of kth -1 time the s-1 time etc.
Effect run timeWith state evaluation value X at current time(k-1)sCalculate equivalent operation of the power transmission and transforming equipment at current time
Time
Repair time computing module 650, for according to the equivalent run time after -1 maintenance of the kthAnd institute
State the equivalent run time at current timeCalculate the repair based on condition of component time for obtaining that power transmission and transforming equipment started from current time.
, referring to embodiment of the method, here is omitted for the specific embodiment of each module above.
The present invention reads state evaluation value X at power transmission and transforming equipment current time first by the first read module 610(k-1)s,
Then the second read module 620 judges state evaluation value X(k-1)sWhether default first threshold value X is more than or equal to0If,
It is then to continue to read equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment after -2 maintenance of kthIt is equivalent before -1 maintenance of kth
Run timeAnd the equivalent run time of the s-1 time after the maintenance of kth -1 timeThen, very first time calculating mould
Equivalent run time of the block 630 according to power transmission and transforming equipment after -2 maintenance of kthWith the equivalent operation before -1 maintenance of kth
TimeCalculate equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment after -1 maintenance of kthMeanwhile, the second Time Calculation mould
The equivalent run time of the s-1 time after the maintenance of kth -1 time according to the power transmission and transforming equipment of block 640With current time
State evaluation value X(k-1)sCalculate equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment at current timeFinally, counted using the repair time
Module 650 is calculated according to the equivalent run time after -1 maintenance of the kthWith the equivalent run time at the current timeCalculate the repair based on condition of component time for obtaining that power transmission and transforming equipment started from current time.Power transmission and transformation equipment state of the present invention
Repair time detection means, can be in state evaluation value X(k-1)sMore than or equal to default first threshold value X0In the case of really
Determine the repair based on condition of component time that power transmission and transforming equipment started from current time, in solving current state maintenance model, defeated change cannot be obtained
The electric equipment actual time between overhauls(TBO), it is difficult to obtain the defect of the repair based on condition of component time that power transmission and transforming equipment started from current time, more
Further reduce the probability of " maintenance is excessive ", improve the efficiency of power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling.
Preferably, as shown in fig. 7, the present invention device in the second embodiment, described device can also include with
Lower basic model generation module 710 and realistic model generation module 720：
Basic model generation module 710, for reading the historical failure rate parameter of power transmission and transforming equipment, according to history event
Barrier rate parameter generate fault rate basic model, wherein, the history crash rate parameter include run the time limit and with the operation
The corresponding fault rate of the time limit；
Realistic model generation module 720, the first mean free error time and second for obtaining power transmission and transforming equipment are average
Failure free time, gives birth to according to first mean free error time, the second mean free error time and fault rate basic model
Into physical fault rate curve model.
Fig. 8 is refer to, Fig. 8 is structural representation of the device of the present invention in the 3rd embodiment.In this embodiment,
The repair time computing module 650 includes：
Accumulated invalid probability module 810, it is for obtaining the maximum periodic inspection interval of power transmission and transforming equipment, fixed according to the maximum
Phase maintenance interval and the fault rate basic model calculate failure accumulated invalid probability；
Repair time solves module 820, for by the failure accumulated invalid probability, the physical fault rate curvilinear mold
Equivalent run time after type, -1 maintenance of kthWith the equivalent run time at the current timeSubstitute into default
Integral algorithm solves the repair based on condition of component time for obtaining that power transmission and transforming equipment started from current time, and the integral algorithm is：
Wherein, Δ t is the repair based on condition of component time that the power transmission and transforming equipment started from current time, λ (t) " for the reality
Bathtub curve model, PmaxFor the failure accumulated invalid probability.
In this embodiment, the very first time computing module 630, specifically for being examined for -2 times in kth according to power transmission and transforming equipment
Equivalent run time after repairingWith the equivalent run time before -1 maintenance of kthUsing maintenance rollback revised law, meter
Calculate the equivalent run time for power transmission and transforming equipment being obtained after -1 maintenance of kth
Wherein, a is default for maintenance service age reduction factor.
Preferably, as shown in figure 9, the present invention device in the 5th embodiment, the second Time Calculation module
640, including：
Parameters Calculation module 910 is supplemented, for reading power transmission and transforming equipment s-1 next state evaluations after -1 maintenance of kth
To the virtual condition evaluation time that s next states are evaluated, according to the virtual condition evaluation time and the shape at the current time
State evaluation of estimate X(k-1)sCalculate acquisition time supplement parameter；
Summation module 920, is supplemented parameter and the power transmission and transforming equipment s- after -1 maintenance of kth for the time
The equivalent run time of 1 timeSummation obtains equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment at current time
The device embodiment of the present invention is corresponding with method, and in device embodiment, the specific implementation of each module is referring to side
Method is embodiment, and here is omitted.
The power transmission and transformation provided by the executable embodiment of the present invention of above-mentioned power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detection device set
Standby repair based on condition of component time detecting method, possesses the corresponding functional module of execution method and beneficial effect.
Those of ordinary skill in the art are it is to be appreciated that the list of each example described with reference to the embodiments described herein
Unit and algorithm steps, being capable of being implemented in combination in electronic hardware or computer software and electronic hardware.These functions are actually
Performed with hardware or software mode, depending on the application-specific and design constraint of technical scheme.Professional and technical personnel
Each specific application can be used different methods to realize described function, but this realization it is not considered that exceeding
The scope of the present invention.
Each technical characteristic of embodiment described above arbitrarily can be combined, to make description succinct, not to above-mentioned reality
Apply all possible combination of each technical characteristic in example to be all described, as long as however, the combination of these technical characteristics is not deposited
In contradiction, the scope of this specification record is all considered to be.
Embodiment described above only expresses the several embodiments of the present invention, and its description is more concrete and detailed, but and
Therefore can not be construed as limiting the scope of the patent.It should be pointed out that for one of ordinary skill in the art comes
Say, without departing from the inventive concept of the premise, some deformations and improvement can also be made, these belong to the protection of the present invention
Scope.Therefore, the protection domain of patent of the present invention should be defined by claims.
Claims (10)
1. power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detecting method, it is characterised in that comprise the steps：
Read state evaluation value X at power transmission and transforming equipment current time(k-1)s, wherein, state estimation value X at the current time(k -1)sFor power transmission and transforming equipment after the maintenance of kth -1 time the state evaluation value of the s time；
In state evaluation value X(k-1)sMore than or equal to default first threshold value X0In the case of, power transmission and transforming equipment is read the
Equivalent run time after k-2 maintenanceEquivalent run time before -1 maintenance of kthAnd -1 maintenance of kth
The equivalent run time of the s-1 time afterwards
According to equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment after -2 maintenance of kthIt is equivalent before overhauling for -1 time with kth
Run timeCalculate equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment after -1 maintenance of kth
According to the power transmission and transforming equipment after the maintenance of kth -1 time the equivalent run time of the s-1 timeWith current time
State evaluation value X(k-1)sCalculate equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment at current time
According to the equivalent run time after -1 maintenance of the kthWith the equivalent run time at the current timeMeter
Calculate the repair based on condition of component time for obtaining that power transmission and transforming equipment started from current time.
2. power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detecting method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that in the reading
State evaluation value X at power transmission and transforming equipment current time(k-1)sBefore step, also include：
The historical failure rate parameter of power transmission and transforming equipment is read, fault rate basic model is generated according to the historical failure rate parameter,
Wherein, the history crash rate parameter includes running the time limit and the fault rate corresponding with the operation time limit；
First mean free error time and the second mean free error time of power transmission and transforming equipment are obtained, according to the described first average nothing
Fault time, the second mean free error time and fault rate basic model generate physical fault rate curve model.
3. power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detecting method according to claim 2, it is characterised in that described according to institute
State the equivalent run time after -1 maintenance of kthWith the equivalent run time at the current timeCalculate and obtain defeated
The step of repair based on condition of component time that converting equipment started from current time, including：
The maximum periodic inspection interval of power transmission and transforming equipment is obtained, according to the maximum periodic inspection interval and fault rate basis mould
Type calculates failure accumulated invalid probability；
By the equivalent operation after the failure accumulated invalid probability, the physical fault rate curve model, -1 maintenance of the kth
TimeWith the equivalent run time at the current timeSubstitute into default integral algorithm and calculate acquisition power transmission and transforming equipment
From the repair based on condition of component time that current time starts, the integral algorithm is：
Wherein, Δ t is the repair based on condition of component time that the power transmission and transforming equipment started from current time, λ (t) " for the physical fault
Rate curve model, PmaxFor the failure accumulated invalid probability.
4. power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detecting method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that described according to defeated
Equivalent run time of the converting equipment after -2 maintenance of kthWith the equivalent run time before -1 maintenance of kthMeter
Calculate equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment after -1 maintenance of kthThe step of, including：
According to equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment after -2 maintenance of kthWith before the maintenance of kth -1 time etc.
Effect run timeUsing maintenance rollback revised law, calculate the equivalent operation for power transmission and transforming equipment being obtained after -1 maintenance of kth
Time Wherein, a is default maintenance service age reduction factor.
5. power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detecting method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that described according to institute
Power transmission and transforming equipment is stated after the maintenance of kth -1 time equivalent run time of the s-1 timeWith state evaluation value X at current time(k-1)sCalculate equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment at current timeThe step of, including：
Read power transmission and transforming equipment s-1 next states after -1 maintenance of kth and evaluate to s next states the virtual condition evaluation evaluated
Time, according to the virtual condition evaluation time and state evaluation value X at the current time(k-1)sCalculate acquisition time supplement
Parameter；
The equivalent run time of the s-1 time that the time is supplemented parameter and the power transmission and transforming equipment after -1 maintenance of kthSummation, obtains equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment at current time
6. power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detection device, it is characterised in that include such as lower module：
First read module, for reading state evaluation value X at power transmission and transforming equipment current time(k-1)s, wherein, when described current
State estimation value X at quarter(k-1)sFor power transmission and transforming equipment after the maintenance of kth -1 time the state evaluation value of the s time；
Second read module, in state evaluation value X(k-1)sMore than or equal to default first threshold value X0In the case of,
Obtain equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment after -2 maintenance of kthEquivalent run time before -1 maintenance of kthAnd the equivalent run time of the s-1 time after the maintenance of kth -1 time
Very first time computing module, for the equivalent run time according to the power transmission and transforming equipment after -2 maintenance of kth
With the equivalent run time before -1 maintenance of kthCalculate equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment after -1 maintenance of kth
Second Time Calculation module, for according to the power transmission and transforming equipment after the maintenance of kth -1 time during the equivalent operation of the s-1 time
BetweenWith state evaluation value X at current time(k-1)sCalculate equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment at current time
Repair time computing module, for according to the equivalent run time after -1 maintenance of the kthWith it is described current when
The equivalent run time carvedCalculate the repair based on condition of component time for obtaining that power transmission and transforming equipment started from current time.
7. power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detection device according to claim 6, it is characterised in that also including following
Module：
Basic model generation module, for reading the historical failure rate parameter of power transmission and transforming equipment, joins according to the historical failure rate
Number generates fault rate basic model, wherein, the history crash rate parameter includes running the time limit and runs time limit phase with described
Corresponding fault rate；
Realistic model generation module, for obtaining during the first mean free error time and second Mean of power transmission and transforming equipment
Between, actual event is generated according to first mean free error time, the second mean free error time and fault rate basic model
Barrier rate curve model.
8. power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detection device according to claim 7, it is characterised in that during the maintenance
Between computing module, including：
Accumulated invalid probability module, for obtaining the maximum periodic inspection interval of power transmission and transforming equipment, according to the maximum periodic inspection
Interval and the fault rate basic model calculate failure accumulated invalid probability；
Repair time solves module, for by the failure accumulated invalid probability, the physical fault rate curve model, described the
Equivalent run time after k-1 maintenanceWith the equivalent run time at the current timeSubstitute into default integration
Algorithm for Solving obtains the repair based on condition of component time that power transmission and transforming equipment started from current time, and the integral algorithm is：
Wherein, Δ t is the repair based on condition of component time that the power transmission and transforming equipment started from current time, λ (t) " for the physical fault
Rate curve model, PmaxFor the failure accumulated invalid probability.
9. power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detection device according to claim 6, it is characterised in that when described first
Between computing module, specifically for：
According to equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment after -2 maintenance of kthWith the equivalent operation before -1 maintenance of kth
TimeUsing maintenance rollback revised law, calculate the equivalent run time for power transmission and transforming equipment being obtained after -1 maintenance of kth Wherein, a is default for maintenance service age reduction factor.
10. power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling time detection device according to claim 6, it is characterised in that described second
Time Calculation module, including：
Parameters Calculation module is supplemented, is evaluated to the s time for reading power transmission and transforming equipment s-1 next states after -1 maintenance of kth
The virtual condition evaluation time of state evaluation, according to the virtual condition evaluation time and the state evaluation value at the current time
X(k-1)sCalculate acquisition time supplement parameter；
Summation module, for the time supplemented parameter and the power transmission and transforming equipment after -1 maintenance of kth the s-1 time etc.
Effect run timeSummation obtains equivalent run time of the power transmission and transforming equipment at current time
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN113644851A (en) * | 2021-07-06 | 2021-11-12 | 中国长江三峡集团有限公司 | State maintenance method for generator excitation system |
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