CN106548284A - A kind of adaptive mode massing power grid security Alarm Assessment method towards operation regulation and control - Google Patents
A kind of adaptive mode massing power grid security Alarm Assessment method towards operation regulation and control Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of adaptive mode massing power grid security Alarm Assessment method towards operation regulation and control, including：Build AC-DC hybrid power grid estimation of stability index system and form safe early warning evaluation module, based on Delphi specialists meeting mechanism, determine that initial module index is constituted using expertise；And obtain the evaluation result sequence of index evaluation result sequence and safe early warning evaluation module in estimation of stability index system；Based on the degree of association between gray relative analysis method acquisition module evaluation result sequence and all index result of calculation sequences；If the index that the degree of association exceedes threshold value is different from the original index composition of safe early warning evaluation module, the index for choosing these high degrees of association is updated to safe early warning evaluation module；Safe early warning evaluation module middle finger target subjectivity weight is obtained with objective weight fusion by comprehensive weight based on minimum range model otherwise, safe early warning evaluation module comprehensive evaluation result is finally given, and is provided power grid security early warning.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to power system on-line operation safety evaluation field, more particularly, to one kind towards operation regulation and control
Adaptive mode massing power grid security Alarm Assessment method.
Background technology
With developing rapidly for extra-high voltage alternating current-direct current serial-parallel power grid, electrical network form and characteristic face profound change, on the one hand
The whole network electrical link is increasingly tight, and between section, coupled relation is more complicated, and safety and stability level is mutually restricted, electric network composition and tide
Stream mode changes greatly, and supply and demand needs the factor for considering more with security problems, to network system analysis and early warning and operation control
Lean and integrated horizontal propose requirements at the higher level；The technical merit and complexity of another aspect operation of power networks is increasingly
Height, the factor for inducing electrical network generation complex fault are more and more, and electrical network occurs complex fault and seriously jeopardized electricity net safety stable
Operation, correct rapid electrical network complex fault of disposing propose requirements at the higher level to power regulation work.Therefore effectively operation of power networks
Safety Comprehensive Evaluation Method is for online regulation and control early warning and prevents the generation of large area blackout significant.
However, the existing safe operation of electric network evaluation methodology problem specific aim of interest for online regulation and control operation compared with
Difference, its main cause are as follows：One is that existing power grid security assessment indicator system only considers to affect the one-sided of safe operation of electric network
Factor, reflects limitation to power networks risk；Two is that the integrated evaluating method for currently generally adopting is affected by subjective factorss
It is more serious, it is difficult to objectively respond electrical network operational risk；Three is that existing appraisement system is interacted with dispatch automated system shortage, difficult
With the power networks risk for fully excavating operation of power networks information and effectively reflect under complicated ruuning situation.
Such as the author such as Cheong Kuoc Va is in electric power network technique 2009 (08)：30-34 " index system and method that power grid security is evaluated "
A set of more complete power grid security assessment indicator system, including safe power supply ability, the quiescent voltage of electrical network are proposed in one text
Safety, topological structure vulnerability, transient security, 5 big class of risk indicator, the set appraisement system can effectively reflect that electrical network is each
Aspect safety factorss, but to electrical network forecast failure scene and typical emergency lack of targeted, to on-line scheduling reference significance
Less；The authors such as Wang Bo are in electric power network technique 2011 (01)：40-45 " the complicated electric power system security risks based on multiplicity
In an evaluation system " text, using event tree analysis and Hierarchy Analysis Method establish it is a set of with objectivity, practicality, be suitable for
The power system security risk evaluation system of property, and by the overall merit of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) implementation level index, the method
Due to taking offline evaluation index in a large number, and evaluation methodology subjectivity is higher, it is adaptable to long-term risk assessment in power system,
For online regulation and control operation lacks directive significance.The authors such as Cui Jianlei are in Automation of Electric Systems 2013 (10)：92-97 " towards
In power grid security Risk Management Control system (two) the risk indicator system of a management and running, appraisal procedure and application strategy " text
Establish the index system that out-of-limit driving risk and event driven risk combine, but the overall merit of lack of targeted
Method, it is difficult to the power networks risk under Efficient Characterization complexity ruuning situation.
Above-mentioned several typical methods have good reference and inspired significance to safe operation of electric network evaluation, but due to respective
The limitation of consideration, causes the online regulation and control early warning problem of its reply not ideal enough.
The content of the invention
For the disadvantages described above of prior art, the invention provides a kind of adaptive mode massing electrical network towards operation regulation and control
Safe early warning evaluation methodology, it is intended to solve in prior art due to only considering in appraisement system that one-sided factor, evaluation methodology are received
The reason for subjective impact and shortage are with scheduling system interaction causes existing evaluation methodology effectively reflect complicated operation feelings
The technical problem of the power networks risk under condition.
For achieving the above object, the invention provides a kind of adaptive mode massing power grid security early warning towards operation regulation and control
Evaluation methodology, comprises the following steps：
(1) the estimation of stability index system of AC-DC hybrid power grid is built, according to estimation of stability index system middle finger
With the tightness degree of pth item safe early warning evaluation module, mark determines that the Raw performance of pth item safe early warning evaluation module is constituted；
(2) the subjective weight of Raw performance in pth item safe early warning evaluation module is obtained using analytic hierarchy process (AHP)；
(3) according to operation of power networks information acquisition estimation of stability index system middle finger target evaluation result, and according to stable
Property assessment indicator system middle finger target evaluation result and pth item safe early warning evaluation module in the subjective weight of each index obtain the
The evaluation result of p item safe early warning evaluation modules；
(4) repeat step (3) after T interval time, until repeat step (3) K time, in acquisition estimation of stability index system
The evaluation result sequence of the evaluation result sequence and pth item safe early warning evaluation module of index；
(5) according to estimation of stability index system middle finger target evaluation result sequence and pth item safe early warning evaluation module
Evaluation result sequence, pth item safe early warning evaluation module and estimation of stability index body are obtained based on gray relative analysis method
The degree of association in system between index；
(6) by the degree of association by order sequence from big to small, the corresponding estimation of stability index body of the n item degrees of association before judging
Whether the index of system constitutes different from the index of pth item safe early warning evaluation module.If it is different, then by front n items degree of association correspondence
Estimation of stability index system index replace pth item safe early warning evaluation module index, and enter step (3)；Otherwise,
Into step (7)；
(7) pth item safety is obtained according to the pth item safe early warning evaluation module middle finger target degree of association that last time updates
Alarm Assessment module middle finger target objective weight, and according to pth item safe early warning evaluation module middle finger target objective weight and master
See weight and obtain pth item safe early warning evaluation module middle finger target comprehensive weight；
(8) the pth item safety updated using pth item safe early warning evaluation module middle finger target comprehensive weight and last time
The comprehensive evaluation result of index evaluation result pth item safe early warning evaluation module in Alarm Assessment module；
Wherein, T determined according to the operation of power networks information updating time, K >=20p=I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII, VIII, Ⅸ,
Ⅹth, Ⅺ, I is low-voltage Alarm Assessment module, II is overvoltage Alarm Assessment module, III is line outage Alarm Assessment module,
IV is section tidal current transfer Alarm Assessment module, V is alternating current-direct current series-parallel connection channel failure Alarm Assessment module, VI is frequency early warning
Evaluation module, VII be power shortage Alarm Assessment module, VIII be power surplus Alarm Assessment module, Ⅸ be transformer safety early warning
Evaluation module, Ⅹ be low frequency oscillations Alarm Assessment module, XI be transient process Alarm Assessment module.
Further, Raw performance in pth item safe early warning evaluation module is obtained using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in step (2)
Subjective weight, comprises the steps：
(21) between the index included according to pth item safe early warning evaluation module significance level to build pth item safety pre-
The judgment matrix of the index included by alert evaluation module
(22) according to formulaObtain the index included by pth item safe early warning evaluation module
Subjective weight w1i；
(23) according to formulaObtain the random concordance of the judgment matrix A of pth item safe early warning evaluation module
Ratio, if as CR ＜ 0.1, it is believed that judgment matrix has satisfied concordance, otherwise, should reconfigure judgment matrix；
In formula, A represents the judgment matrix of the index included by pth item safe early warning evaluation module, element aijFor pth Xiang An
Index B included by full Alarm Assessment moduleiIndex B included with pth item safe early warning evaluation modulejRelative importance,
The index quantity that 1≤i≤n, 1≤j≤n, n are included by pth item safe early warning evaluation module；RI is average homogeneity index,
Relevant criterion data can be searched and obtain RI, CI is index of conformity, according to formulaObtain, according to formulaObtain approximation λ of the Maximum characteristic root of judgment matrixmax, W1=(w11,...,w1i,...,w1n)TFor pth
The objective weight vector of the index included by item safe early warning evaluation module, w1iIncluded by pth item safe early warning evaluation module
Index subjective weight.
Further, the middle subjective weight for obtaining each index in pth item safe early warning evaluation module of step (3) includes as follows
Step：
(31) in judging pth item safe early warning evaluation module, each index is evaluated with pth item safe early warning during last renewal
In module, whether each Raw performance is identical, and if so, then in pth item safe early warning evaluation module, the subjective weight of each index is pth
The subjective weight of each Raw performance in item safe early warning evaluation module, otherwise into step (32)；
(32) the subjective weight and pth Xiang An according to each Raw performance in pth item safe early warning evaluation module in step (2)
In full Alarm Assessment module, the degree of association of each index obtains the subjective weight of each index in pth item safe early warning evaluation module.
Further, step (32) obtain pth item safe early warning evaluation module in each index subjective weight include it is as follows
Step：
(321) index in pth item safe early warning evaluation module is ordered as into B from big to small by the degree of association1…Bu…Bn；
(322) Raw performance in pth item safe early warning evaluation module in step (2) is sorted from big to small by subjective weight
B1'…B'u…B'n；
(323) make index B' in pth item safe early warning evaluation moduleuSubjective weight equal to pth item safe early warning evaluate
Raw performance B in moduleuSubjective weight；
In formula, the index quantity that 1≤u≤n, n are included by pth item safe early warning evaluation module.
Further, step (5) is obtained pth item safe early warning evaluation module based on gray relative analysis method and is commented with stability
The degree of association in valency index system between index, comprises the steps：
(51) according to formulaBy estimation of stability index system middle finger target evaluation result sequence
Nondimensionalization andThe evaluation result sequence nondimensionalization of pth item safe early warning evaluation module；
(52) according to formulaComputational stability
In assessment indicator system, in index, kth time evaluation result is secondary with kth in the evaluation result sequence of pth item safe early warning evaluation module
The degree of association coefficient of evaluation result,
(53) according to formulaObtain pth item safe early warning evaluation module and estimation of stability index system
Degree of association r between middle indexm；
XmK () estimation of stability index system middle finger target evaluation result sequence kth item, Y (k) are pth item safe early warning
The evaluation result sequence kth item of evaluation module, xmK () is tied for the evaluation of nondimensionalization rear stability assessment indicator system middle finger target
Infructescence row kth item, evaluation result sequence kth items of the y (k) for pth item safe early warning evaluation module after nondimensionalization, ρ referred to as divide
Distinguish coefficient, ξmK () is kth in index in estimation of stability index system time evaluation result and pth item safe early warning evaluation module
Evaluation result sequence in kth time evaluation result degree of association coefficient, m=1,2 ..., M, k=1,2 ..., K, K are that sequence is long
Degree, M be stability indicator system in include index quantity.
Further, step (7) is according to formulaObtain pth item safe early warning evaluation module index it is comprehensive
Close weight wi, αtiThe linear combination coefficient of the weight of the index of pth item safe early warning evaluation module, w are obtained using t methodstiFor
The weight of the index of pth item safe early warning evaluation module is obtained using t methods, according to formula
Obtain αtiUsing t methods obtain pth item safe early warning evaluation module index weight linear combination coefficient, t=I, II, I
For analytic hierarchy process (AHP), II is gray relative analysis method.
In general, possesses following technology compared with prior art, mainly according to the above-mentioned technology design of the present invention excellent
Point：
1st, the main task of online regulation and control operation is real-time control operation of power networks state, and electricity net safety stable fortune is effectively ensured
OK.And electric network security evaluation in the past only carries out power grid security early warning by single index, incomplete is reflected to the electrical network state of emergency
Face, it is difficult to reflect that the association between index affects, it is impossible to provide objective synthesis judgment, the inventive method is run for power grid regulation
Anticipation scene of interest and electrical network typical case's emergency define corresponding safe early warning evaluation module, to on-line operation risk
It is with strong points, can effectively reflect the ability of electrical network reply failure and urgent scene.
2nd, operation of power networks parameter is obtained in real time, obtain the evaluation result of estimation of stability index, and according to estimation of stability
The evaluation result of index obtains the evaluation result of safe early warning evaluation module, and is commented according to above-mentioned evaluation result acquisition safe early warning
Relational degree taxis result in valency module and estimation of stability index system between indices, realizes real-time update safe early warning
The index of module is constituted, and realizes the self-adaptative adjustment of module using history evaluation result sequence, for electrical network complexity running environment
With stronger adaptability, and closely interact with existing dispatch automated system, make full use of the online of dispatching automation platform
Computing capability.
3rd, the subjective weight of safe early warning module is obtained using analytic hierarchy process (AHP), using obtaining based on degree of association gray Analysis method
Safe early warning module objective weight, using organically blending for minimum range model realization subjectivity weight and objective weight, energy
Being effectively improved evaluation methodology is affected by subjective factorss, and evaluation result more tallies with the actual situation.
Description of the drawings
The flow process of the adaptive mode massing power grid security Alarm Assessment method towards operation regulation and control that Fig. 1 is provided for the present invention
Figure.
Specific embodiment
In order that the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention become more apparent, it is below in conjunction with drawings and Examples, right
The present invention is further elaborated.It should be appreciated that specific embodiment described herein is only to explain the present invention, and
It is not used in the restriction present invention.
As shown in figure 1, the adaptive mode massing power grid security Alarm Assessment method towards operation regulation and control that the present invention is provided,
Comprise the steps：
(1) the estimation of stability index system of AC-DC hybrid power grid is built, according to estimation of stability index system middle finger
With the tightness degree of pth item safe early warning evaluation module, mark determines that the Raw performance of pth item safe early warning evaluation module is constituted.
The authors such as the estimation of stability index system reference Cheong Kuoc Va of AC-DC hybrid power grid are built in electric power network technique 2009
(08)：A set of more complete power grid security evaluation index body is proposed in 30-34 " index system and method that power grid security is evaluated "
System is related to the safe power supply ability of electrical network, static voltage security, topological structure effectively reflecting electrical network each side safety factorss
Vulnerability, transient security, five aspects of risk indicator determine estimation of stability index system, in estimation of stability index system
Comprising M item indexs.
From dispatching of power netwoks failure of interest and urgent scene, the state of necessity table of the failure and urgent scene is analyzed
Factor is levied, and according to the index being closely related with each sign factor in determination estimation of stability index system, the index is constituted
Safe early warning evaluation module.By carrying out overall merit to the index related to each sign factor, effectively can reflect each sign because
Reciprocal action between element, realizes targetedly, by the overall merit in point and face, so as to effectively reflect the bad state of emergency of electrical network
Criticality.
According to dispatching requirement, p=I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII, VIII, Ⅸ, Ⅹ, Ⅺ, I is low-voltage Alarm Assessment mould
Block, II be overvoltage Alarm Assessment module, III be line outage Alarm Assessment module, IV be section tidal current shift Alarm Assessment mould
Block, V be alternating current-direct current series-parallel connection channel failure Alarm Assessment module, VI be frequency Alarm Assessment module, VII comment for power shortage early warning
Valency module, VIII be power surplus Alarm Assessment module, Ⅸ be transformer safety Alarm Assessment module, Ⅹ be low frequency oscillations it is pre-
Alert evaluation module, XI are transient process Alarm Assessment module, are realized with evaluation objective to point to, to have unit between coupling index
Conjunction forms the evaluation method that safe early warning evaluation module is Main Means, and the electric network synthetic that realization has emphasis, various dimensions evaluates machine
System.
As safe early warning evaluation module is by the highlights correlations of a certain typical pattern risk of reflection electric power netting safe running
Index is constituted, therefore using based on Delphi specialists meeting mechanism, determines safe early warning evaluation module middle finger using expertise
Mark is constituted, and introduces power industry expert, and the expert especially with regulation and control operating experience is according to the knowledge and experience of itself to mould
The relatedness of block compositions indicator carries out specialty evaluation, and index is constituted in determining safe early warning evaluation module.
For example for electrical network low voltage warning module, simple evaluation is carried out by electrical network actual measurement voltage and is difficult to comprehensive reflection
Criticality of the electrical network in low-voltage state, it is necessary to consider network load that Operating Voltage risk is closely related,
Reactive-load compensation, association electrical network low voltage nargin, change in voltage trend, variation persistent period, the total vacancy of reactive power, power supply
Surplus, load variations trend this 8 indexs carry out comprehensive analysis, realize the objective overall merit of electrical network low voltage risk.
(2) the subjective weight of Raw performance in pth item safe early warning evaluation module is obtained using analytic hierarchy process (AHP), including such as
Lower step：
(21) between the Raw performance included according to pth item safe early warning evaluation module, significance level builds pth Xiang An
The judgment matrix of the Raw performance included by full Alarm Assessment module
In formula, A represents the judgment matrix of the Raw performance included by pth item safe early warning evaluation module, element aijFor pth
The Raw performance B included by item safe early warning evaluation moduleiThe Raw performance B included with pth item safe early warning evaluation modulej
Relative importance, the Raw performance quantity that 1≤i≤n, 1≤j≤n, n are included by pth item safe early warning evaluation module.
(22) subjective weight w of the Raw performance included by pth item safe early warning evaluation module is obtained using extraction of root1i。
According to formulaObtain the Raw performance included by pth item safe early warning evaluation module
Subjective weight w1i；
(23) according to formulaObtain the random concordance of the judgment matrix A of pth item safe early warning evaluation module
Ratio, if as CR ＜ 0.1, it is believed that judgment matrix has satisfied concordance, otherwise, should reconfigure judgment matrix.
In formula, RI is average homogeneity index, can search relevant criterion data and obtain RI, and CI is index of conformity, according to
FormulaObtain, according to formulaObtain approximation λ of the Maximum characteristic root of judgment matrixmax,
W1=(w11,...,w1i,...,w1n)TThe objective weight vector of the Raw performance included by pth item safe early warning evaluation module,
The judgment matrix of the Raw performance that A is included by pth item safe early warning evaluation module, w1iFor pth item safe early warning evaluation module
Comprising Raw performance BiSubjective weight, the index quantity that n is included by pth item safe early warning evaluation module.
(3) according to operation of power networks information acquisition estimation of stability index system middle finger target evaluation result, and according to stable
Property assessment indicator system middle finger target evaluation result and pth item safe early warning evaluation module in the subjective weight of each index obtain the
The evaluation result of p item safe early warning evaluation modules；
In pth item safe early warning evaluation module, the subjective weight of each index is evaluated according to pth item safe early warning in step (2)
In module, in the weight of each Raw performance and pth item safe early warning evaluation module, the degree of association of each index determines.
In estimation of stability index system, index can be calculated the evaluation of the index online according to the index algorithm
As a result Xm, 1≤m≤M, M are the quantity comprising index in estimation of stability index system
Obtained and pth item safety according to operation of power networks information acquisition estimation of stability index system middle finger target evaluation result
Evaluation result Xa of the index in Alarm Assessment modulei, index B even in pth item safe early warning evaluation moduleiWith stability
In assessment indicator system, index is identical, makes index B in pth item safe early warning evaluation moduleiEvaluation result be equal to stability
Assessment indicator system middle finger target evaluation result.
If index carried out replacement according to the degree of association in pth item safe early warning evaluation module, pth item safe early warning is evaluated
In module, index is different from the Raw performance of step (2) pth item safe early warning evaluation module, pth item safe early warning evaluation module
Middle index is ordered as B from big to small by the degree of association1…Bu…Bn, and will be first in pth item safe early warning evaluation module in step (2)
Beginning index is sorted B from big to small by subjective weight1'…B'u…B'n, then index B in pth item safe early warning evaluation moduleu' master
See weight and be equal to Raw performance B in pth item safe early warning evaluation moduleuSubjective weight, 1≤u≤n, n are that pth item safety is pre-
The index quantity included by alert evaluation module.
According to formulaObtain evaluation result y' for obtaining pth item safe early warning evaluation module.In formula,
XaiFor pth item safe early warning evaluation module middle finger target evaluation result, w1iFor pth item safe early warning evaluation module middle finger target
Objective weight, n are index B in pth item safe early warning evaluation moduleiQuantity.
In order to fully demonstrate the different significance levels of module index, the subjective power of indices is calculated using analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
Weight, is obtained using weighted average and realizes that metrics evaluation result is effectively comprehensive, obtain safe early warning evaluation module comprehensive evaluation result.
(4) repeat step (3) after T interval time, until repeat step (3) K time, in acquisition estimation of stability index system
The evaluation result sequence X of indexm={ Xm(k) | k=1,2 ..., K }, m=1,2 ..., M and pth item safe early warning evaluation module
Evaluation result sequence Y=Y (k) | k=1,2 ..., K }；Wherein K be sequence length, M be stability indicator system in include index
Quantity.Wherein, T according to the operation of power networks information updating time determine, according to the needs of engineer applied, K >=20.
(5) according to estimation of stability index system middle finger target evaluation result sequence and pth item safe early warning evaluation module
Evaluation result sequence, pth item safe early warning evaluation module and estimation of stability index body are obtained based on gray relative analysis method
The degree of association in system between index, comprises the steps：
(51) by estimation of stability index system middle finger target evaluation result sequence and pth item safe early warning evaluation module
Evaluation result sequence carries out nondimensionalization.
As the data in each factor row in system may be different because of dimension, it is not easy to compare or be difficult to when relatively to obtain
Correct conclusion.Therefore, when grey relational grade analysis are carried out, the nondimensionalization carried out by data is processed.
According to formulaWill be estimation of stability index system middle finger target evaluation result sequence immeasurable
Guiding principleization andThe evaluation result sequence nondimensionalization of pth item safe early warning evaluation module, Xm(k) stability
Assessment indicator system middle finger target evaluation result sequence kth item, evaluation result sequences of the Y (k) for pth item safe early warning evaluation module
Row kth item, xmK () is nondimensionalization rear stability assessment indicator system middle finger target evaluation result sequence kth item, y (k) is nothing
The evaluation result sequence kth item of pth item safe early warning evaluation module, m=1,2 ..., M, k=1 after dimension, 2 ..., K, K are
Sequence length, M be stability indicator system in include index quantity.
(52) in computational stability assessment indicator system, in index, kth time evaluation result evaluates mould with pth item safe early warning
The degree of association coefficient of kth time evaluation result in the evaluation result sequence of block：
According to formulaCalculating correlation coefficient,
In formula, ρ is referred to as resolution ratio, and ρ is less, and resolving power is bigger, the interval of general ρ for (0,1), concrete value can optionally and
It is fixed.When ρ≤0.5463, resolving power preferably, generally takes ρ=0.5, xiK () is nondimensionalization rear stability assessment indicator system
Middle finger target kth time evaluation result, is safe early warning evaluation module kth time evaluation result after y (k) nondimensionalizations.
(53) obtain the degree of association between index in pth item safe early warning evaluation module and estimation of stability index system.
Because coefficient of association is pth item safe early warning evaluation module and each moment of index in estimation of stability index system
Correlation degree value, so its several more than one, and information excessively disperses to be not easy to carry out globality comparison.It is therefore desirable to
The coefficient of association at each moment is grouped as into a value, that is, seeks its meansigma methods, as pth item safe early warning evaluation module with it is stable
In property assessment indicator system, between index, the quantity of correlation degree represents that pth item safe early warning evaluation module is referred to estimation of stability
Index C in mark systemmBetween degree of association rmFormula is as follows：
In formula, ξmK () is commented with pth item safe early warning for kth in index in estimation of stability index system time evaluation result
The degree of association coefficient of kth time evaluation result in the evaluation result sequence of valency module, k=1,2 ..., K.
(6) by the degree of association by order sequence from big to small, the corresponding estimation of stability index body of the n item degrees of association before judging
Whether the index of system constitutes different from the index of pth item safe early warning evaluation module.If it is different, then by front n items degree of association correspondence
Estimation of stability index system index replace pth item safe early warning evaluation module index, and enter step (3)；Otherwise,
Into step (7)；
Size sequence is carried out according to the calculation of relationship degree result in step (4), the degree of association is more high, show that pth item safety is pre-
The correlation degree of the index in alert module and the estimation of stability index system is higher, if the corresponding stability of the front n items degree of association
The index of assessment indicator system is identical with the index composition of pth item safe early warning evaluation module, will be the big degree of association corresponding steady
Index in qualitative indication system replaces the index in pth item safe early warning module, can so realize that safe early warning evaluates mould
The high coupling index self-adaptative adjustment of block composition, under different modes, safe early warning evaluation module ensures that the height of module index is closed
Connection, improves the adaptability to electrical network complexity running environment.
(7) pth item safety is obtained according to the pth item safe early warning evaluation module middle finger target degree of association that last time updates
Alarm Assessment module middle finger target objective weight, and according to pth item safe early warning evaluation module middle finger target objective weight and master
See weight and obtain pth item safe early warning evaluation module middle finger target comprehensive weight.
And indices in pth item safe early warning evaluation module on the essence of relationship degree in step (4), can be reflected
Relative importance, i.e. index objective weight.The pth item safe early warning evaluation module index indices that last time updates
The degree of association be respectively ri', the index quantity that 1≤i≤n, n are included by pth item safe early warning evaluation module, then its objective power
Weight can be calculated by normalization
Obtain the objective weight of indices in pth item safe early warning evaluation module.
In order to realize the objective reality evaluation of pth item safe early warning evaluation module, take minimum range model realization subjective
The effective integration of weight and objective weight.Minimum range model is represented by：
In formula：S=I, II, t=I, II, I is analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and II is gray relative analysis method, wtiIt is to be obtained using t methods
Obtain the weight of the index of pth item safe early warning evaluation module, wsiIt is to obtain pth item safe early warning evaluation module using s methods
The weight of index, αtIt is the linear combination coefficient of the weight of the index that pth item safe early warning evaluation module is obtained using t methods；
The optimization first derivative condition of above-mentioned minimum range model is：
Optimization first derivative condition corresponds to the matrix form of system of linear equations：
It is hereby achieved that the linear combination of the weight of the index of pth item safe early warning evaluation module is obtained using t methods
Factor alphati。
Further according toObtain the comprehensive weight w of the index of pth item safe early warning evaluation modulei。
The step is an optimization process by various weight combined crosswises, and obtain consistent or compromise is most satisfied with weight,
Realize the objective reality evaluation of module.
(8) using pth item safe early warning evaluation module middle finger target comprehensive weight wiPth Xiang An updated with last time
Index evaluation result Xa in full Alarm Assessment modulei' obtain pth item safe early warning evaluation module comprehensive evaluation result, formula
It is as follows：
The comprehensive evaluation result of safe early warning evaluation module can characterize the criticality of the bad state of emergency of electrical network.
By being based on index in estimation of stability index system, and according to index and safety in estimation of stability index system
The degree of association of Alarm Assessment module, determines that the index of safe early warning evaluation module is constituted, and safe early warning evaluation module can be effective
Electrical network of evaluating tackle that this kind urgent or the ability of failure condition；Estimation of stability index is obtained according to powernet operational factor
The evaluation result of system middle finger target evaluation result and safe early warning evaluation module, and using being obtained based on grey Relational Analysis Method
The degree of association of index and safe early warning evaluation module in estimation of stability index system is obtained, and is realized according to the degree of association pre- to safety
Alert evaluation module middle finger target updates so that the method that the present invention is provided has stronger adaptation for electrical network complexity running environment
Property, realize evaluation that is more reasonable and tallying with the actual situation；And safe early warning evaluation module middle finger is obtained using analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
Target subjectivity weight, and according to safe early warning evaluation module middle finger target subjectivity weight and objective weight, obtain the synthesis of index
Weight so that evaluation result more conforms to practical situation.
As it will be easily appreciated by one skilled in the art that the foregoing is only presently preferred embodiments of the present invention, not to
The present invention, all any modification, equivalent and improvement made within the spirit and principles in the present invention etc. are limited, all should be included
Within protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (6)
1. it is a kind of towards the adaptive mode massing power grid security Alarm Assessment method for running regulation and control, it is characterised in that including following
Step：
(1) build the estimation of stability index system of AC-DC hybrid power grid and safe early warning is formed according to dispatching requirement and evaluate mould
Block, determines pth item according to tightness degree of the index in the estimation of stability index system with pth item safe early warning evaluation module
The Raw performance of safe early warning evaluation module is constituted；
(2) the subjective weight of Raw performance in the pth item safe early warning evaluation module is obtained using analytic hierarchy process (AHP)；
(3) according to operation of power networks information acquisition estimation of stability index system middle finger target evaluation result, and commented according to stability
In valency index system middle finger target evaluation result and pth item safe early warning evaluation module, the subjective weight of each index obtains pth item
The evaluation result of safe early warning evaluation module；
(4) repeat step (3) after T interval time, until repeat step (3) K time, index in acquisition estimation of stability index system
Evaluation result sequence and pth item safe early warning evaluation module evaluation result sequence；
(5) evaluated according to the estimation of stability index system middle finger target evaluation result sequence and the pth item safe early warning
The evaluation result sequence of module, obtains the pth item safe early warning evaluation module based on gray relative analysis method stable with described
The degree of association in property assessment indicator system between index；
(6) by the degree of association by order sequence from big to small, the corresponding estimation of stability index body of the n item degrees of association before judging
Whether the index of system constitutes different from the index of the pth item safe early warning evaluation module；If it is different, then by the front n items degree of association
Index in corresponding estimation of stability index system replaces the index of pth item safe early warning evaluation module, realizes module height
The renewal of coupling index, and enter step (3)；Otherwise, into step (7)；
(7) pth item safe early warning is obtained according to the pth item safe early warning evaluation module middle finger target degree of association that last time updates
Evaluation module middle finger target objective weight, and according to pth item safe early warning evaluation module middle finger target objective weight and subjective power
Recapture to obtain pth item safe early warning evaluation module middle finger target comprehensive weight；
(8) the pth item safe early warning updated using pth item safe early warning evaluation module middle finger target comprehensive weight and last time
The comprehensive evaluation result of index evaluation result pth item safe early warning evaluation module in evaluation module；
Wherein, T determined according to the operation of power networks information updating time, K >=20p=I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII, VIII, Ⅸ, Ⅹ,
Ⅺ, I is low-voltage Alarm Assessment module, II is overvoltage Alarm Assessment module, III is line outage Alarm Assessment module, IV is
Section tidal current transfer Alarm Assessment module, V be alternating current-direct current series-parallel connection channel failure Alarm Assessment module, VI be frequency Alarm Assessment
Module, VII be power shortage Alarm Assessment module, VIII be power surplus Alarm Assessment module, Ⅸ be transformer safety Alarm Assessment
Module, Ⅹ be low frequency oscillations Alarm Assessment module, XI be transient process Alarm Assessment module.
2. according to the adaptive mode massing power grid security Alarm Assessment method described in claim 1, it is characterised in that the step
Suddenly the subjective weight of Raw performance in pth item safe early warning evaluation module is obtained in (2) using analytic hierarchy process (AHP), including following step
Suddenly：
(21) between the Raw performance included according to pth item safe early warning evaluation module significance level to build pth item safety pre-
The judgment matrix of the Raw performance included by alert evaluation module
(22) according to formulaObtain the Raw performance included by pth item safe early warning evaluation module
Subjective weight w1i；
(23) according to formulaThe random Consistency Ratio of the judgment matrix A of pth item safe early warning evaluation module is obtained,
If as CR ＜ 0.1, it is believed that judgment matrix has satisfied concordance, otherwise, should reconfigure judgment matrix；
In formula, A represents the judgment matrix of the Raw performance included by pth item safe early warning evaluation module, element aijFor pth Xiang An
The Raw performance B included by full Alarm Assessment moduleiThe Raw performance B included with pth item safe early warning evaluation modulejRelatively
Significance level, the index quantity that 1≤i≤n, 1≤j≤n, n are included by pth item safe early warning evaluation module；RI is average one
Cause property index, can search relevant criterion data and obtain RI, and CI is index of conformity, according to formulaObtain, according to
FormulaObtain approximation λ of the Maximum characteristic root of judgment matrixmax, W1=(w11,...,w1i,...,w1n)TFor
The objective weight vector of the index included by pth item safe early warning evaluation module, w1iWrapped by pth item safe early warning evaluation module
Index B for containingiSubjective weight.
3. adaptive mode massing power grid security Alarm Assessment method as described in the accompanying claims, it is characterised in that the step
(3) the subjective weight that each index in pth item safe early warning evaluation module is obtained in comprises the steps：
(31) judge each index and pth item safe early warning evaluation module during last renewal in pth item safe early warning evaluation module
In each Raw performance it is whether identical, if so, then in pth item safe early warning evaluation module each index subjective weight be pth Xiang An
The subjective weight of each Raw performance in full Alarm Assessment module, otherwise into step (32)；
(32) the subjective weight and pth Xiang An according to each Raw performance in pth item safe early warning evaluation module in the step (2)
In full Alarm Assessment module, the relational degree taxis of each index obtain the subjectivity of each index in the pth item safe early warning evaluation module
Weight.
4. the adaptive mode massing power grid security Alarm Assessment method as any one of 1 to 3 in claim, its feature exist
In the step (32) obtains the subjective weight of each index in the pth item safe early warning evaluation module and comprises the steps：
(321) index in pth item safe early warning evaluation module is ordered as into B from big to small by the degree of association1…Bu…Bn；
(322) Raw performance in pth item safe early warning evaluation module in step (2) is sorted B ' from big to small by subjective weight1…
B′u…B'n；
(323) make index B' in pth item safe early warning evaluation moduleuSubjective weight be equal to pth item safe early warning evaluation module in
Raw performance BuSubjective weight；
In formula, the index quantity that 1≤u≤n, n are included by pth item safe early warning evaluation module.
5. adaptive mode massing power grid security Alarm Assessment method as claimed any one in claims 1 to 3, its feature exist
In the step (5) obtains pth item safe early warning evaluation module and estimation of stability index system based on gray relative analysis method
The degree of association between middle index, comprises the steps：
(51) according to formulaWill be estimation of stability index system middle finger target evaluation result sequence immeasurable
Guiding principleization andThe evaluation result sequence nondimensionalization of pth item safe early warning evaluation module；
(52) according to formulaComputational stability is evaluated
In index system, in index, kth time evaluation result is evaluated with kth time in the evaluation result sequence of pth item safe early warning evaluation module
As a result degree of association coefficient；
(53) according to formulaObtain pth item safe early warning evaluation module and estimation of stability index system middle finger
Degree of association r between markm；
XmK () estimation of stability index system middle finger target evaluation result sequence kth item, Y (k) evaluate mould for pth item safe early warning
The evaluation result sequence kth item of block, xmK () is nondimensionalization rear stability assessment indicator system middle finger target evaluation result sequence
Kth item, evaluation result sequence kth items of the y (k) for pth item safe early warning evaluation module after nondimensionalization, ρ are referred to as resolution ratio,
ρ ∈ (0,1), ξmK () evaluates mould with pth item safe early warning for kth in index in estimation of stability index system time evaluation result
The degree of association coefficient of kth time evaluation result in the evaluation result sequence of block, m=1,2 ..., M, k=1,2 ..., K, K are that sequence is long
Degree, M be stability indicator system in include index quantity.
6. adaptive mode massing power grid security Alarm Assessment method as claimed any one in claims 1 to 3, its feature exist
In step (7) is according to formulaObtain the comprehensive weight w of the index of pth item safe early warning evaluation modulei, αtiMake
The linear combination coefficient of the weight of the index of pth item safe early warning evaluation module, w are obtained with t methodstiIt is to be obtained using t methods
The weight of the index of pth item safe early warning evaluation module, according to formulaObtain αti
Using the linear combination coefficient of the weight of the index of t methods acquisition pth item safe early warning evaluation module, t=I, II, I is level
Analytic process, II is gray relative analysis method.
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