CN106570627A - Crop irrigation water requirement calculation method on future climatic conditions - Google Patents
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Abstract
The present invention discloses a crop irrigation water requirement calculation method on future climatic conditions. The method comprises the steps of collecting the future climatic mode data, and correcting the future climatic mode data based on the historical actually measured meteorological data to enable the future climatic mode data to be suitable for the climatic change influence evaluation of a region or station scale; according to the growth period data of a crop field test and an accumulated temperature formula, constructing a response model of the crop planting date and the crop growth period length to the temperature; utilizing a penman formula to combine a single crop coefficient method and a soil moisture stress coefficient to calculate the crop daily water requirement; based on a crop irrigation system and a water balance principle to calculate the crop daily irrigation water requirement. Aiming at the influence of the climatic change on the agricultural water resource security, the method of the present invention considers the change of the crop planting date and the growth period caused by the global warming, so that a water resource planning management department can forecast the regional future agricultural water resource utilization amount more accurately, and accordingly, a water resource planning scheme is proposed more reasonably.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to crop irrigation requirement computational methods under the conditions of a kind of Future Climate, belong to field of agricultural irrigation.
Background technology
Climate change with temperature rising, precipitation fluctuation as principal character, needs water to generate significantly agricultural irrigation
Impact.Crop irrigation requirement is the important component part of agricultural water, and agricultural water is the important step of hydrologic cycle
One of, temperature rising, Abnormal Precipitation, disaster take place frequently etc., and climate change directly affects hydrologic cycle process, so as to agricultural water
General layout produces significant impact.So estimate crop irrigation requirement under the conditions of Future Climate providing to ensureing agricultural production and saving water
Source is significant.Utilize for China's agricultural safety under the influence of Future Climate Change and water resource simultaneously and theories integration be provided,
Also the more accurate discreet area the future of agriculture water resource utilization of large-scale system optimum department can be facilitated, so as to propose more
Rational water resources scheme.
At present, the computational methods of crop irrigation requirement are mainly with history meteorological data and general circulation model（GCMs）Knot
Cooperation thing Y-factor method Y and principle of water balance combine crop modeling, and crop irrigation requirement is inquired into day by day.But, different fillings
The mode of irrigating correspond to different irrigation programs, have different bounds of pouring water in different breeding times.Additionally, the liter of temperature
Height, not only affects the evapotranspiration of crop, while can also change initial plantation date and the breeding time length of crop.
Therefore, the water balanced calculation based on water requirement, effective rainfall and average seepage, can not completely react paddy rice filling
Irrigate process.How the shadow of climate change to crop initial plantation date, breeding time and irrigation requirement is more accurately estimated
Ring, be the task of top priority of agricultural planting planning and following water resources, be also the key issue that this technology is solved.
The content of the invention
The technical problem to be solved is to provide crop irrigation requirement calculating side under the conditions of a kind of Future Climate
Method, builds the cumulative probability bearing calibration of a kind of history actual measurement meteorological data and GCM climatic model period of history data, will correct
Future Climate mode data afterwards, according to accumulated temperature principle, determines crop starting plantation date and breeding time length.Filled based on crop
System is irrigate with reference to single crop coefficient and principle of water balance, crop irrigation requirement under the conditions of Future Climate, and this is calculated
Method is inquired into the water demand of crop, crop irrigation requirement and breeding time, and the method has reasonability and operability.
The present invention is employed the following technical solutions to solve above-mentioned technical problem：
The present invention provides crop irrigation requirement computational methods under the conditions of a kind of Future Climate, comprises the following steps that：
Step 1, collects the GCM climatic models data and history actual measurement meteorological data of agricultural weather website；
Step 2, based on history the cumulative probability distribution of meteorological data and period of history data in GCM climatic models are surveyed
Cumulative probability is distributed, and to Future Climate mode data offset correction process is carried out；
Step 3, according to crop field test data and accumulated temperature principle, determines that crop initially plants date and cycle breeding time
Required equivalent accumulated temperature；
Step 4, it is flat based on deficit irrigation schedule, Penman formula and the water yield with reference to the Future Climate mode data after correction
Weighing apparatus principle, calculates crop irrigation requirement.
Used as the further prioritization scheme of the present invention, history actual measurement meteorological data includes the drop no less than 30 years in step 1
Water, temperature, radiation, wind speed and vapour pressure day by day data；Period of history data and history actual measurement gas in GCM climatic model data
Image data is corresponded to completely.
It is raw by extracting history actual measurement meteorological data month and sorting in step 2 as the further prioritization scheme of the present invention
Into the cumulative probability distribution of the history actual measurement meteorological data in correspondence month.
As the further prioritization scheme of the present invention, period of history data in GCM climatic models are extracted by month in step 2
And sort, generate the cumulative probability distribution of period of history data in the GCM climatic models in correspondence month.
As the further prioritization scheme of the present invention, offset correction process is carried out to Future Climate mode data in step 2
Concrete grammar be：The probable value of meteorological factor in Future Climate mode data is calculated, history reality is distributed in based on this probable value
Survey in the cumulative probability distribution curve and GCM climatic models of meteorological data and inserted in the cumulative probability distribution curve of period of history data
Value find respective value, using the difference or ratio of the two respective values as addition or multiplicative correction coefficient to Future Climate pattern count
According to being corrected, the Future Climate mode data after correction is generated with this.
Used as the further prioritization scheme of the present invention, step 3 is further included：The temperature in time is observed based on crop test
Data and field test data, it is determined that actual measurement crop initially plants date and breeding time length；The work is determined using accumulated temperature formula
Thing grows required equivalent accumulated temperature；Again following crop is determined based on the temperature data in the Future Climate mode data after correction
Breeding time from date and Crop growing stage length.
Used as the further prioritization scheme of the present invention, step 4 is further included：First, crop is calculated using Penman formula
Evapotranspiration amount in growth and development stage；Then, with reference to single crop coefficient and soil moisture stress coefficient, the water demand of crop is calculated；
Finally, using deficit irrigation schedule, with reference to field water balance principle, crop irrigation requirement is calculated.
The present invention adopts above technical scheme compared with prior art, with following technique effect：The present invention adopts crop
Irrigation program.With reference to single crop coefficient and accumulated temperature computing formula and principle of water balance.Calculate crop irrigation under future condition
Water requirement, utilizes for China's agricultural safety under the influence of Future Climate Change and water resource and provides theories integration.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is following crop irrigation requirement calculation flow chart.
Fig. 2 is based on the offset correction schematic diagram of cumulative probability.
Fig. 3 is the change of rice transplanting date.
Fig. 4 is growth period duration of rice change.
Fig. 5 is the change of Rice irrigation water requirement.
Specific embodiment
Below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiment is described in further detail to technical scheme：
The invention provides crop irrigation requirement computational methods under the conditions of a kind of Future Climate, as shown in figure 1, concrete side
Method flow process is as follows：
（1）Collect the GCM climatic models data and history actual measurement meteorological data of agricultural weather website；Wherein, history actual measurement
Meteorological data includes being no less than precipitation, temperature, radiation, wind speed and the vapour pressure day by day data of 30 years；GCM climatic model data
Middle period of history data and history actual measurement meteorological data are corresponded to completely.
（2）The cumulative probability of the cumulative probability distribution and GCM period of history data of surveying meteorological data based on history is distributed,
Offset correction process is carried out to following GCM data.
First, sequence and sort for many years by extracting history actual measurement meteorological data month, generate the cumulative probability in correspondence month
Distribution function fobs(x)=Pobs(x), wherein, x is probable value, fobsX () is history actual measurement meteorological data correspondence number under the probability
Value；
Then, to the period of history data of GCM climatic models also according to extracting data different months, and the correspondence moon is generated
Part cumulative distribution function fm-o(x)=Pm-o(x), wherein, x is probable value, fm-oX () is climatic model history under the probability
Period meteorological data correspondence numerical value；
Finally, the probable value of meteorological factor in Future Climate mode data is calculated, it is general in history actual measurement based on this probable value
Interpolation search respective value in rate curve and weather mode history period probability curve, by the difference of the two respective values（Or ratio）
Future Climate mode data is corrected as correction coefficient, the Future Climate mode data after correction is generated with this.
xm-p.adjst=xm-p+fobs(x)-fm-o(x) （a）
Wherein, xm-p.adjstFor the meteorological factor after correction, xm-pTo correct front meteorological factor, for temperature, radiation, aqueous vapor
Pressure adopts formula a, for precipitation and wind speed adopt formula b.
（3）According to field test data and accumulated temperature principle, determine that crop initially plants product needed for date and cycle breeding time
Temperature.
Described accumulated temperature computing formula, specially：It was divided into three phases by one day, the first stage rises the moment from the sun
（Hn）To the highest temperature correspondence moment（Hx）；Second stage is from the highest temperature correspondence moment to carving at sunset（Ho）；Phase III is from sunset
Moment was to second day lowest temperature correspondence moment (Hp).One two-stage temperature is fitted with two sections of the tracks of line voltage, the phase III
It is fitted with square root function.
H0And HnDetermined according to local longitude and latitude, Hx=Ho- 4, Hp=Hn+24.Four moment Hn、Hx、Ho、HpCorresponding temperature
Respectively：Work as Daily minimum temperature（Tn）, work as max. daily temperature（Tx）, temperature at sunset（To）, second day minimum temperature（Tp）, its
Middle To=Tx-0.39(Tx-Tp)
The temperature funtion computing formula of each moment t is in one day：
In formula：α=Tx-Tn, R=Tx-To,
To formula（3）Integration, by integration after three results summation, you can obtain the accumulated temperature value of a day.
（4）Crop irrigation requirement is calculated based on Penman formula and principle of water balance, concrete calculation procedure is as follows：
First, Reference Evapotranspiration is calculated using Penman formula：
Wherein, ET0For Reference Evapotranspiration（mmd-1）；RnFor net radiation（MJ m-2d-1）；G is soil heat flux（MJ
m-2d-1）；esFor average saturation vapour pressure（kPa)）；T is mean temperature（℃）；u2For the wind speed of two meters of eminences（ms-1）；Δ is
Saturation vapour pressure slope（kPa℃-1）；γ is dry and wet constant（kPa℃-1）；eaFor actual water vapor pressure（kPa）.
Then, water stress factor is combined using single crop coefficient, the water demand of crop is calculated day by day（ETci）：
ETci=KcKsET0i（5）
Wherein, ET0iFor Reference Evapotranspiration on the i-thth, mm；KcFor crop coefficient；KsFor water stress factor.
Finally, according to deficit irrigation schedule, with reference to field water balance principle, crop irrigation requirement is determined.
Wherein, water balance formula is：
hi-hi-1=Ri+Ii-Di-Si-ETci（6）
In formula：hi、hi-1Respectively i-th day, i-th -1 water depth, mm；Ri、Ii、Di、SiThe drop of i-th day is represented respectively
Rainfall, irrigation quantity, displacement, leakage, mm.
Technical scheme is further elaborated below by specific embodiment：
By taking the Rice irrigation of Kunshan station as an example, crop irrigation requirement computational methods under the conditions of a kind of Future Climate of the invention,
Specific implementation step is as follows：
（1）Collect 3 periods of future of Kunshan website（2011-2040（2020s）, 2041-2070（2050s）With
2071-2100（2080s））Climatic model data and history actual measurement meteorological data（1961-2010）；Wherein the present embodiment is not
Carry out climatic model data source and compare the 5th stage of plan in CGCM（CMIP5）Climatic model data, historical data source
China Meteorological data network, the present embodiment adopts four kinds of Climate Scenarios of BCC-CSM1.1 (m) climatic models.
（2）Based on history actual measurement meteorological data cumulative probability distribution and the distribution of GCM periods of history cumulative probability, to future
GCM data carry out offset correction process, as shown in Fig. 2 comprising the following steps that：
1）Sequence and sort for many years by actual measurement meteorological data is extracted month, generate month cumulative probability function fobs(x)=
Pobs(x), wherein, x is probable value, fobsX () is that meteorological data correspondence numerical value is surveyed under the probability；
2）To climatic model period of history data also according to extraction of different months data, and it is tired to generate correspondence month probability
Product function fm-o(x)=Pm-o(x), wherein, x is probable value, fm-oX () is climatic model period of history meteorological data under the probability
Correspondence numerical value；
3）The probable value of meteorological factor in following Meteorological series is calculated, based on this probable value in actual measurement probability curve and weather
Interpolation search respective value in mode history period probability curve, by the difference of the two respective values（Or ratio）As correction coefficient
Following meteorological factor is corrected, the Meteorological series after correction are generated with this.
xm-p.adjst=xm-p+fobs(x)-fm-o(x) （a）
Wherein, xm-p.adjstFor the meteorological factor after correction, xm-pTo correct front meteorological factor, for temperature, radiation, aqueous vapor
Pressure adopts formula a, for precipitation and wind speed adopt formula b.
（3）According to field test data and accumulated temperature principle, determine that crop initially plants date and breeding time length；Wherein,
The accumulated temperature formula that accumulated temperature is adopted is calculated, is comprised the following steps that：It was divided into three phases by one day, the first stage rises the moment from the sun
（Hn）To the highest temperature correspondence moment（Hx）；Second stage is from the highest temperature correspondence moment to carving at sunset（Ho）；Phase III is from sunset
Moment was to second day lowest temperature correspondence moment (Hp).One and two-stage temperature be to be fitted with two sections of the tracks of line voltage, the 3rd rank
Section is fitted with square root function.H0And HnDetermined according to local longitude and latitude, Hx=Ho- 4, Hp=Hn+24.Four moment Hn、Hx、Ho、
HpCorresponding temperature is respectively：Work as Daily minimum temperature（Tn）, work as max. daily temperature（Tx）, temperature at sunset（To）, second day lowest temperature
Degree（Tp）, wherein To=Tx-0.39(Tx-Tp).Each moment temperature funtion computing formula in one day：
In formula：α=Tx-Tn, R=Tx-To,
To above formula integrate, by integration after three results summation, obtain the accumulated temperature value of a day.
On the basis of according to Kunshan station field rice breeding time data in 2011, obtaining the survey region rice transplanting date ought
Amount accumulated temperature is 53000 DEG C, and breeding time equivalent accumulated temperature is 73000 DEG C, and so as to calculate Future Climate Rice under Condition the date is transplanted
With growth period duration of rice length.Result of calculation is as shown in Figures 3 and 4.
（4）Crop irrigation requirement is calculated based on Penman formula and Irrigation Water Requirement for Paddy Rice combined water equilibrium principle, specifically
Calculation procedure is as follows：
First, Reference Evapotranspiration is calculated using Penman formula：
Wherein, ET0For Reference Evapotranspiration（mmd-1）；RnFor net radiation（MJ m-2d-1）；G is soil heat flux（MJ
m-2d-1）；esFor average saturation vapour pressure（kPa)）；T is mean temperature（℃）；u2For the wind speed of two meters of eminences（ms-1）；Δ is
Saturation vapour pressure slope（kPa℃-1）；γ is dry and wet constant（kPa℃-1）；eaFor actual water vapor pressure（kPa）.
Then, adopt but crop coefficient method and water stress factor, calculate crop water requirement day by day（ETci）：
ETci=KcKsET0i
In formula：ET0iFor Reference Evapotranspiration on the i-thth, mm；KcFor crop coefficient；KsFor water stress factor.KcCoefficient
Using Kunshan mono-season medium rice crop coefficient amendment, breeding time is initial, mid-term and latter stage are taken as respectively 1.05,1.2,1.0.
Different Irrigation pattern correspondence different irrigation systems, the present embodiment Rice irrigation is filled using control irrigation program, control
The difference referred to according to paddy rice different times to moisture-sensitive degree is irrigate, reasonable soil moisture supply is set in each breeding time.Remove
Keep outside 5-25mm water layers in period of seedling establishment, remaining each growing stage does not set up water layer, only holding soil moisture upper control limit is
Saturation moisture content, lower limit takes respectively the 60%-80% of saturation moisture content in different growing,（Wherein, the present invention is in calculating process
Water depth negative value is converted into into water depth for soil moisture content）.
Finally, crop irrigation requirement is determined according to field water balance principle, water balance formula is as follows：
hi-hi-1=Ri+Ii-Di-Si-ETci（6）
In formula：hi、hi-1Respectively i-th day, i-th -1 water depth, mm；Ri、Ii、Di、SiThe drop of i-th day is represented respectively
Rainfall, irrigation quantity, displacement, leakage, mm.
Seepage computational methods are as follows：
I. when there is water layer in field,
Si=Ki
In formula：KiFor the per day leakage in rice field in the case of normal water supply, take when there is water layer in field and survey leakage average,
mm。
Ii. when field no water layer, estimate as the following formula：
In formula：SiFor the rice field leakage of i-th day, mm；K0It is mainly relevant with the soil texture for saturation hydraulic conductivity, one
As take 0.1～1.0m/d；β is empirical, generally 50～250, the more glutinous weight of soil, its value is bigger；tiFor soil moisture content
The time that i-th sky and water are experienced at ordinary times, d are reached from saturation state；H be the main root layer depth of paddy rice, m.Calculating Rice irrigation needs
The water yield change such as Fig. 5.
The above, the only specific embodiment in the present invention, but protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto, and appoints
What be familiar with the people of the technology disclosed herein technical scope in, it will be appreciated that the conversion expected or replacement, all should cover
The present invention include within the scope of, therefore, protection scope of the present invention should be defined by the protection domain of claims.
Claims (7)
1. crop irrigation requirement computational methods under the conditions of a kind of Future Climate, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps that：
Step 1, collects the GCM climatic models data and history actual measurement meteorological data of agricultural weather website；
Step 2, based on history the cumulative probability distribution and the accumulation of period of history data in GCM climatic models of meteorological data are surveyed
Probability distribution, to Future Climate mode data offset correction process is carried out；
Step 3, according to crop field test data and accumulated temperature principle, needed for determining that crop initially plants date and cycle breeding time
Equivalent accumulated temperature；
Step 4, it is former based on deficit irrigation schedule, Penman formula and water balance with reference to the Future Climate mode data after correction
Reason, calculates crop irrigation requirement.
2. crop irrigation requirement computational methods under the conditions of a kind of Future Climate according to claim 1, it is characterised in that
History actual measurement meteorological data includes being no less than precipitation, temperature, radiation, wind speed and the vapour pressure day by day data of 30 years in step 1；
Period of history data and history actual measurement meteorological data are corresponded to completely in GCM climatic model data.
3. crop irrigation requirement computational methods under the conditions of a kind of Future Climate according to claim 1, it is characterised in that
By extracting history actual measurement meteorological data month and sorting in step 2, the history for generating correspondence month surveys the accumulation of meteorological data
Probability distribution.
4. crop irrigation requirement computational methods under the conditions of a kind of Future Climate according to claim 1, it is characterised in that
Extract by month in step 2 and period of history data and sorted in GCM climatic models, in generating the GCM climatic models in correspondence month
The cumulative probability distribution of period of history data.
5. crop irrigation requirement computational methods under the conditions of a kind of Future Climate according to claim 1, it is characterised in that
It is to the concrete grammar that Future Climate mode data carries out offset correction process in step 2：In calculating Future Climate mode data
The probable value of meteorological factor, based on this probable value the cumulative probability distribution curve and GCM gas of history actual measurement meteorological data are distributed in
Interpolation search respective value in the cumulative probability distribution curve of period of history data in time pattern, by the difference of the two respective values or
Ratio is corrected as addition or multiplicative correction coefficient to Future Climate mode data, and with this Future Climate after correction is generated
Mode data.
6. crop irrigation requirement computational methods under the conditions of a kind of Future Climate according to claim 1, it is characterised in that
Step 3 is further included：The temperature record and field test data in time are observed based on crop test, it is determined that actual measurement crop is initial
Plantation date and breeding time length；Equivalent accumulated temperature needed for the crop growth is determined using accumulated temperature formula；It is based on again after correction
Future Climate mode data in temperature data determine following Crop growing stage from date and Crop growing stage length.
7. crop irrigation requirement computational methods under the conditions of a kind of Future Climate according to claim 1, it is characterised in that
Step 4 is further included：First, evapotranspiration amount in the crop growth phase is calculated using Penman formula；Then, with reference to nonoculture thing
Y-factor method Y and soil moisture stress coefficient, calculate the water demand of crop；Finally, it is flat with reference to the field water yield using deficit irrigation schedule
Weighing apparatus principle, calculates crop irrigation requirement.
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Cited By (19)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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| CN109258330A (en) * | 2018-09-21 | 2019-01-25 | 安徽省农业科学院土壤肥料研究所 | A kind of cultural method reducing rice field winter green manure production risk |
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