CN106504312A - The triple assessment method of gas buried pipe network system risk - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of triple assessment method of gas buried pipe network system risk, including:Determine the basic parameter index in gas buried pipe network system;According to basic parameter index, when calculating generation leakage accident, the failure probability of leak, and be poisoned or light individual death rate caused by blast;According to the failure probability of leak, and it is poisoned or lights the caused individual death rate of blast to calculate corresponding individual risk value;According to calculated individual risk value, buried pipeline individual risk three dimensional field contour surface is drawn.In the program, multiple risk sources can be overlapped, obtain the individual risk's value under multiple risk source effects.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to combustion gas buried pipe network system risk evaluates field, more particularly to a kind of gas buried pipe network system
The triple assessment method of system risk.
Background technology
Mathematical model is the important component part of urban infrastructure, and its safe operation is related to people's people's livelihood
Life property safety, is related to social stability overall situation.With the continuous propulsion of Chinese Urbanization, life of urban resident level is not yet
Disconnected raising, the application of gas are also more and more extensive.Pipeline network of fuel gas in city is giving people productive life just as the blood vessel of human body
While bringing convenience, inflammable, explosive and toxic due to which, easily cause security incident.In recent years, because gas ductwork is super
Age is on active service, safeguards the reasons such as improper, damage from third-party, soil corrosion, causes the leakage that gas is produced in use
Explosion accident emerges in an endless stream.According to statistics, the national accident of generation gas explosion altogether more than 220 in 2013 rises, and accident causes the casualties 1000
Remaining people, economic loss is up to 8.5 hundred million yuan.TaiWan, China Kaohsiung " 8.1 " underground gas pipeline leaks explosion accident within 2014, causes 30
People is dead, and 310 people are injured.Incomplete statistics shows that China occurs gas explosion accident 658 times altogether, causes 1000 within 2015
Remaining people is injured, and 116 people are dead.
Gas explosion is a kind of extremely strong accident of destructiveness, once occurring, in the case where meeting some requirements, may cause thing
Therefore Domino effect so that accident risk further expands.Urban population is intensive, high building stands in great numbers, various pipe networks are intricate,
The dangerous matter sources for causing the accident are frequently not single.The risk that pipeline network of fuel gas in city leakage explosion accident is formed, can apply many
Plant Quantitative Risk Evaluation method to be evaluated, including fuzzy comprehensive evoluation, gray theory, rough set theory etc., existing maturation
Explosion accident theoretical model, can calculate individual risk and the social risk of explosion accident.When consideration accident Domino effect
When, secondary above accident risk can be calculated.In the presence of above-mentioned evaluation methodology can calculate single dangerous matter sources, gas ductwork is let out
Leakage explosion accident risk, but the accident risk formed in the presence of not yet considering multiple dangerous matter sources.Gas leakage blast is being calculated
During accident risk, the different dangerous matter sources of consideration are needed to form the propagation law of the synergistic effect and risk of risk, the control that thus formulates
Measure processed is only possible to reach the purpose that prevention and control accident occur.
The risk zones that explosion accident is formed caused by gas leakage diffusion can be described with " field ".Close in classical field theory
Definition in " field " is:If the every bit in region, an effect or effect is all correspond to, just say there is one in this region
Individual field, and principle of stacking and propagation law are the basic laws of field.Very universal, the thing such as existing gravitational field, electromagnetic field of field
Reason Classical Fields, also have the broad sense fields such as temperature field, concentration field and Construction Project Risk field.Risk be there is around dangerous matter sources,
And there is certain distribution, be properly termed as risk field.If using the basic theories of classical physics field, in conjunction with gas leakage blast thing
Therefore mechanism, risk principle of stacking and propagation law during multiple dangerous matter sources collective effects is solved, risk assessment reason not only can be expanded
By research range, enrich Quantitative Risk Evaluation technology and method, can also provide for science formulation accident rescue scheme, prediction scheme
Conductive suggestion, reaches minimizing casualties, reduces the purpose of economic asset loss.
For gas ductwork leaks the research of the risk field that blast is formed, foreign scholar is considered as Regional Risk it and quantitatively comments
A kind of description of valency.Since 20 century 70s, Quantitative Risk Evaluation method is successively applied to oil by the country such as America and Europe
In the overall risk assessment in work field and safety program.The country such as European Union, the U.S., Canada, Australia is main at present adopts
Two kinds of evaluation methodologys of " based on consequence " and " based on risk " carry out risk assessment." based on consequence " method is based on to hypothesis accident
The assessment of consequence, using the threshold value of the physical quantity of damage sequence as safety program foundation, and does not consider the probability that accident occurs.
The severity of " based on risk " method comprehensive assessment latent defect consequence and probability, using personal and social risk as planning according to
According in terms of risk analyses more comprehensively.
At home, early in 2000, about the concept that scholar proposes calamity field (risk field), it is indicated that calamity field is to surmount disaster area
The disaster radiation of space-time and influence area.Thereafter some scholars are studied to risk field, for example yellow along ripple doctor proposition base
Evaluation theory in three-dimensional risk field is studied, and further specify that the concept of risk field, and risk field superposition theorem is carried out
Preliminary discussion.Doctor Zhou Aixia is discussed to the distribution of levee protection area flood disaster risk, and it is empty to have made flood disaster risk
Between scattergram.Wang Yutian etc. has carried out beneficial exploration to city risk field, it is indicated that vector analyses are be combined with each other with field theory, not only
Can describe the distributed in three dimensions of risk, and the synergistic effect of risk can be quantified, set up public place three-dimensional risk field
Feasible and effective method.Cheng Junwei is studied to construction Regional Risk, and constructs single building risk analyses
Model, it is determined that the venture influence gradient of single building, it is proposed that the computational methods of construction region overall risk.
At present in terms of pipeline network of fuel gas in city leakage explosion accident risk field, Chinese scholars show to grind risk field
The attention that studies carefully, but its research can be formed by risk field theory far away, problems with is primarily present also in the budding stage:(1)
The concept of physical field and the theories such as electric field, magnetic field is used for reference, risk field is directly applied to by analogy analysis, and not scientific to which
Studied.Introducing risk field in pipeline network of fuel gas in city leakage explosion accident is a kind of trial and innovates, and be formed complete
Risk field theory, it is necessary first to which the basic feature of clear and definite risk field, the i.e. field intensity of risk field, field force and field potential have with which factor
Relation, has any relation;In terms of this, highly developed classical physics field theory can be used for reference, but at present for individual customs and morals of the people
The research of danger and social risk association attributes is not yet bright and clear, it is impossible to which the method for simple utilization vector or scalar synthesis carries out risk and folds
Plus.Meanwhile, the science for verifying risk field using experimentation needs the explosive test for carrying out complexity, and difficulty is larger.(2) do not have
Have and risk field superposition theorem and propagation law are studied.In actual production life, risk often derives from multiple danger
How source, in the case of the risk field distribution of each dangerous matter sources known, quickly calculate multiple dangerous matter sources in each position shape
Into risk seem particular importance, need to consider risk field superposition theorem and dissemination.
Content of the invention
It is an object of the invention to provide a kind of triple assessment method of gas buried pipe network system risk, can be to many
Individual risk source is overlapped, and obtains the individual risk's value under multiple risk source effects.
The purpose of the present invention is achieved through the following technical solutions:
A kind of triple assessment method of gas buried pipe network system risk, including:
Determine the basic parameter index in gas buried pipe network system;
According to basic parameter index, when calculating generation leakage accident, the failure probability of leak, and be poisoned or light
Individual death rate caused by blast;
According to the failure probability of leak, and individual death rate is corresponding to calculate caused by being poisoned or lighting blast
Individual risk value;
According to the individual risk value that calculating is arrived, buried pipeline individual risk three dimensional field contour surface is drawn.
The failure probability for calculating leak includes:
According to three kinds of forms that basic parameter index determines leak:Small holes, Hole and macroscopic void;Wherein, leak
Hole aperture < 5%D, as small holes;Leak aperture is 5%D~20%D, as Hole;Leak aperture > 20%D,
As Hole;In formula, D is caliber;
Then these three corresponding failure probabilities of leakage well format are respectively through revised formula:
Small holes:λs,EI,d=0.001e-4.18D-2.18562;
Hole:λm,EI,d=0.001e-4.12D-2.02841;
Macroscopic void:λg,EI,d=0.001e-4.05D-2.13441.
Individual death rate P caused by poisoningrComputing formula is:
Pr=a+b ln (cntl);
In formula, c represents the concentration of the noxious substance determined according to leakage well format;tlRepresent time of contact;A, b and n are equal
The constant relevant with poison type;
Light individual death rate P caused by blastrrComputing formula is:
Prr=-14.9+2.56ln (Q4/3×10-4×tp);
In formula, Q represents the radiation dose determined according to leakage well format, tpOpen-assembly time in for radiation field;
Wherein, tpCalculated using following formula:
In formula, trRepresent personal response time, x0Represent that the personal distance away from flame kernel, v represent personal escape speed
Degree, xsRepresent that flame kernel is 1KW/m apart from thermal radiation flux2The distance at place.
The failure probability according to leak, and be poisoned or light the caused individual death rate of blast to calculate phase
The formula of the individual risk value that answers is:
In above formula, λiFor leak failure probability, PiFor being poisoned accordingly or lighting the caused individual death of blast
Rate;K represents correction factor of the environment to the risk source of leakage generation,S is environmental impact factor total number.
As seen from the above technical solution provided by the invention, using the concept of contour, three-dimensional risk field is given
Three-dimensional contour surface shape;Individual risk's contour surface of risk field is more capable of the risk size point of clearly expression of space field
Cloth, with directly perceived, clear, comprehensive the characteristics of, such that it is able to instruct the rescue works after generation accident.
Description of the drawings
In order to be illustrated more clearly that the technical scheme of the embodiment of the present invention, below will be to using needed for embodiment description
Accompanying drawing be briefly described, it should be apparent that, drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, for this
For the those of ordinary skill in field, on the premise of not paying creative work, can be obtaining other according to these accompanying drawings
Accompanying drawing.
Fig. 1 is a kind of triple assessment method flow of gas buried pipe network system risk provided in an embodiment of the present invention
Figure;
Fig. 2 is individual risk's spatial distribution map of three-dimensional risk field provided in an embodiment of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
Accompanying drawing in reference to the embodiment of the present invention, to the embodiment of the present invention in technical scheme carry out clear, complete
Ground description, it is clear that described embodiment is only a part of embodiment of the invention, rather than whole embodiment.Based on this
Inventive embodiment, the every other enforcement obtained under the premise of creative work is not made by those of ordinary skill in the art
Example, belongs to protection scope of the present invention.
Fig. 1 is a kind of triple assessment method flow of gas buried pipe network system risk provided in an embodiment of the present invention
Figure.As shown in figure 1, which mainly comprises the steps:
Step 11, the basic parameter index determined in gas buried pipe network system.
It will be understood by those skilled in the art that basic parameter index can be obtained using usual manner measurement, including:Pipeline
Caliber, pipeline location, leak pore size, the concentration of noxious substance, with noxious substance time of contact, heat radiation dosage etc..
Wherein it is possible to be divided into small holes, Hole and macroscopic void these three forms, differentiation side according to leak pore size
Formula is as follows:Leak aperture < 5%D, as small holes;Leak aperture is 5%D~20%D, as Hole;Leak
Aperture > 20%D, as Hole;In formula, D is caliber.
Step 12, according to basic parameter index, calculate when there is leakage accident, the failure probability of leak, and poisoning
Or light individual death rate caused by blast.
In the embodiment of the present invention, the form for considering leak is needed, and the corresponding failure of leak of multi-form is general
Rate, it is poisoned and lights individual death rate caused by blast;Specific as follows:
1st, failure probability.
For gas buried pipeline, its feature that accident occurs meets tub curve, that is, first stage of construction
With the operation later stage because being in break-in and being close to service life and be constantly occurring various accidents or failure, within the intermediate stable phase
Contingency occurrence probability is low, and exponential of the parameter for K is obeyed at time of casualty interval:Do not occur
The probability (x=0) of failure is:Pλ(x=0;λ T)=e-λTAccording to event occurrence rate property, the probability that accident occurs can be obtained
For:P′λ=1-Px(x=0;λ T)=1-e-λT.
However, above formula in actual calculating process does not take into full account the situation of various bursts, is only merely to consider
The main body of pipeline.But gas buried pipeline system includes a lot of aspects of pumping plant, valve, equipment etc., according in practice
Statistics to accident, subject cause cause failure to account for the 46% of whole failure accidents, by originals such as device, mechanical bond point and weld seams
Because accounting for 20%, 34% owing to system auxiliary device.So Probability Evaluation will consider the impact of various aspects, i.e.,
Can be represented with the function of the factors such as material, assembling, overburden cover, cathodic protection correlation parameter.But failure probability
It is not a constant, the environmental correclation with failure mode, nature and surrounding therefore will be by some modifying factors to failure
Probability calculation is modified.From accident statistics, external force destruction is the principal element for causing failure accidents, the mistake for thus causing
Effect probability can be calculated as:
λ'p,EI,d=λP,EI,d×QE×F×KDC×KWT×KPD×KPM
Wherein, λp,EI,dRepresent the failure probability changed with caliber caused because of external force destruction, QERepresent related to welding
Correction factor, F represent the correction factor related to pipe age, KDCRepresent the correction factor of overburden cover, KWTRepresent pipe thickness
Correction factor, KPDRepresent location population density correction factor, KPMRepresent management preventive measure correction factor;
Welding correction factor QEExpression formula be:QE=A' × N × 1.75, in formula, A' represent the fragile coefficient of welding (, the meaning
It is that weld seam is more easy to fail for body, can be with value 50), N represents the welding quantity of system.
Exemplary, overburden cover, pipe thickness, population density and preventive measure correction factor can adopt following table
Numerical value shown in 1.
The numerical value of 1 each parameters revision coefficient of table
Dc in table 1 is overburden cover, and t is pipe thickness;tminFor minimum pipe thickness, D and tminCan adopt
Numerical value shown in table 2 below.
Table 2 D and tminNumerical value
It will be understood by those skilled in the art that the value of parameters is only for example in above-mentioned 1~table of table 2, not constitute
Limit;In actual applications, user can according to demand or experience is arranging the concrete numerical value of relevant parameter.
Failure probability is through revised formula:
Small holes:λs,EI,d=0.001e-4.18D-2.18562;
Hole:λm,EI,d=0.001e-4.12D-2.02841;
Macroscopic void:λg,EI,d=0.001e-4.05D-2.13441.
2nd, individual death rate caused by being poisoned
Individual death rate P caused by poisoningrComputing formula is:
Pr=a+b ln (cntl);
In formula, c represents that (concrete numerical value can be according to practical situation according to the concentration for leaking the noxious substance that well format determines
Determine, for example, in the case where other factors are not considered, relatively concentration is relatively low at least for small holes leakage rate, macroscopic void is leaked
Relatively at most concentration is higher for amount, and Hole leakage rate and concentration are therebetween);tlRepresent time of contact;A, b and n are equal
The constant relevant with poison type;Exemplary, for artificial coal gas, a=0.54, b=1.01, n=0.5 can be set.
3rd, blast caused by individual death rate is lighted.
Light individual death rate P caused by blastrrComputing formula is:
Prr=-14.9+2.56ln (Q4/3×10-4×tp);
In formula, Q represents radiation dose (unit W/m determined according to leakage well format2Concrete numerical value can be according to actual feelings
Condition determines that, for example, in the case where other factors are not considered, relatively radiation dose is relatively low at least for small holes leakage rate, macropore
Relatively at most radiation dose is higher for watery diarrhea leakage quantity, and Hole leakage rate and radiation dose are therebetween), tpFor radiation field
In open-assembly time;
Wherein, tpCalculated using following formula:
In formula, trRepresent personal response time (can value 5s), x0Represent personal distance away from flame kernel (unit, m), v
Represent personal escape speed (can value 4m/s), xsRepresent that flame kernel is 1KW/m apart from thermal radiation flux2The distance at place is (single
Position, m).
Step 13, the failure probability according to leak, and be poisoned or light the caused individual death rate of blast to count
Calculate corresponding individual risk value.
Individual risk value can be calculated in the way of using engineering mathematics (being specifically introduced later), and the present invention is real
Example is applied when individual risk value is calculated, needs to determine the form of leak according to practical situation, for example, by pipeline break caused by
Leakage accident, leak aperture are 100% (namely > 20%D).
It will be understood by those skilled in the art that some risk sources can be produced after leakage accident occurs, and these risks
The risk that source produces is relevant with the form of leak, it is possible to calculate corresponding leak failure according to the form of leak
Probability, and poisoning or light individual death rate caused by blast, and then calculate and (be superimposed under these risk source collective effects
Individual risk value RI afterwards).
Based on introducing above, the computing formula of individual risk value is:
In above formula, λiFor leak failure probability (according to practical situation selection corresponding formula above), PiFor corresponding
Poisoning or light individual death rate caused by blast;K represents correction factor of the environment to risk source, environmental impact factor master
Temperature to be had, pressure, wind direction, ground degree of roughness, topography profile etc., this value take different values according to different accidents.Environment
Influence factor is often the coefficient result of Multiple factors, therefore their relation is represented with multiplication,S is environment
Influence factor's total number.
Step 14, according to calculated individual risk value, draw buried pipeline individual risk three dimensional field contour surface.
It will be understood by those skilled in the art that three dimensional field contour surface can be drawn using usual manner.
On the other hand, can normally be discussed with application engineering mathematics midfield, derive spatial point individual risk's superposition value, Ran Hougen
According to the individual risk value for calculating, buried pipeline individual risk three dimensional field contour surface is drawn.Individual risk value is mainly introduced below
Calculating process:
Assume there is two risk source A (0,0,0) and B (x1,y1,z1), with AB lines as X-axis, Y-axis was defined as A points and hung down
Directly in the straight line of X-axis, the venture entrepreneur in the 1 point of P (x, y, z) in space is calculated, point P with the line of A, B isWithBy A, B
The venture entrepreneur vector of generation is projected on each coordinate axes, is then superimposed;Use symbolRepresent the individual customs and morals of the people of certain point
Nearly, can then obtain and in A, B relative to individual risk's value of point P be:
In above formula, i, j, k are respectively x, y, z direction vector in space;K represents the correction factor of environment risk source,
Environmental impact factor mainly has temperature, pressure, wind direction, ground degree of roughness, topography profile etc., this value according to different accidents,
Take different values.Environmental impact factor is often the coefficient result of Multiple factors, therefore their relation is represented with multiplication,S is environmental impact factor total number.
Then after risk source superposition A, B, the individual risk value of P is:
It will be understood by those skilled in the art that according to the coordinate of above-mentioned risk source A, B, risk source A is Yuan Shengchang, and
Risk source B is the derivation field being derived by Yuan Shengchang.
In order to make it easy to understand, elaborating to such scheme of the present invention with reference to a specific example.
Step one:Determine each parameter index of gas pipeline basic condition, including pipe diameter, pipeline location, leak hole
Footpath size, the concentration of noxious substance, with noxious substance time of contact, heat radiation dosage etc..
Pipe diameter is 600mm, and pipeline location is divided into three kinds of situations:Buried gas pipeline, exposed outside and surrounding nothing
The pipeline of barrier, exposed outside and surrounding has the pipeline of barrier.The segment pipe is longer due to active time, therefore often occurs
Leakage failure accident, it is small hole leaking respectively that leakage failure has three types, and effective aperture is 20mm;Mesopore is leaked, equivalent aperture
Footpath is 100mm;Macropore is leaked, and effective aperture is 400mm.The concentration of noxious substance is to be measured, to be measured for time of contact with noxious substance,
Heat radiation dosage can be represented with 90% heat discharged as the part for participating in burning of leakage combustion gas quality.Q=
m1Hc=0.9mHc, wherein HcCan be represented with the combustion heat of methane, Hc=5.56 × 107J/kg.
Step 2:According to the parameter determined in step one, the pipeline failure probability and poisoning that leakage accident occurs is obtained
Or individual death rate caused by blast is lighted, see the table below 3.
Step 3:Individual risk value is calculated according to the result of step 2;See the table below 3.
3 pipeline failure probability of table, it is poisoned, lights individual death rate and corresponding individual risk value caused by blast
Step 4:By taking buried pipeline as an example, according to each individual value-at-risk, buried pipeline individual risk three dimensional field etc. is drawn
Value.As shown in Figure 2.Can obtain from figure, the risk distribution of space point is semielliptical shape.Longitudinal height representation space
Point risk size.By risk contour surface figure, can be clear from recognizing the risk size from source of leaks different distance, so as to
It is that safety management and emergency management and rescue provide important guidance foundation.
Through the above description of the embodiments, those skilled in the art can be understood that above-described embodiment can
To be realized by software, it is also possible to which the mode by software plus necessary general hardware platform is realizing.Such understanding is based on,
The technical scheme of above-described embodiment can be embodied in the form of software product, the software product can be stored in one non-easily
The property lost storage medium (can be CD-ROM, USB flash disk, portable hard drive etc.) in, use so that a computer sets including some instructions
Standby (can be personal computer, server, or network equipment etc.) executes the method described in each embodiment of the invention.
The above, the only present invention preferably specific embodiment, but protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto,
Any those familiar with the art in the technical scope of present disclosure, the change or replacement that can readily occur in,
Should all be included within the scope of the present invention.Therefore, protection scope of the present invention should be with the protection model of claims
Enclose and be defined.
Claims (4)
1. a kind of triple assessment method of gas buried pipe network system risk, it is characterised in that include:
Determine the basic parameter index in gas buried pipe network system;
According to basic parameter index, when calculating generation leakage accident, the failure probability of leak, and be poisoned or light blast
Caused individual death rate;
According to the failure probability of leak, and it is poisoned or lights the caused individual death rate of blast to calculate corresponding individuality
Value-at-risk;
According to the individual risk value that calculating is arrived, buried pipeline individual risk three dimensional field contour surface is drawn.
2. the triple assessment method of a kind of gas buried pipe network system risk according to claim 1, its feature exist
In the failure probability for calculating leak includes:
According to three kinds of forms that basic parameter index determines leak:Small holes, Hole and macroscopic void;Wherein, leak hole
Footpath < 5%D, as small holes;Leak aperture is 5%D~20%D, as Hole;Leak aperture > 20%D, as
Hole;In formula, D is caliber;
Then these three corresponding failure probabilities of leakage well format are respectively through revised formula:
Small holes:λs,EI,d=0.001e-4.18D-2.18562;
Hole:λm,EI,d=0.001e-4.12D-2.02841;
Macroscopic void:λg,EI,d=0.001e-4.05D-2.13441.
3. the triple assessment method of a kind of gas buried pipe network system risk according to claim 2, its feature exist
In,
Individual death rate P caused by poisoningrComputing formula is:
Pr=a+bln (cntl);
In formula, c represents the concentration of the noxious substance determined according to leakage well format;tlRepresent time of contact;A, b and n are and poisonous substance
The relevant constant of species;
Light individual death rate P caused by blastrrComputing formula is:
Prr=-14.9+2.56ln (Q4/3×10-4×tp);
In formula, Q represents the radiation dose determined according to leakage well format, tpOpen-assembly time in for radiation field;
Wherein, tpCalculated using following formula:
In formula, trRepresent personal response time, x0Represent that the personal distance away from flame kernel, v represent personal escape speed, xs
Represent that flame kernel is 1KW/m apart from thermal radiation flux2The distance at place.
4. the triple assessment method of a kind of gas buried pipe network system risk according to claim 3, its feature exist
In, the failure probability according to leak, and individual death rate is corresponding to calculate caused by being poisoned or lighting blast
The formula of individual risk value is:
In above formula, λiFor leak failure probability, PiFor being poisoned accordingly or lighting the caused individual death rate of blast;K tables
Show correction factor of the environment to the risk source of leakage generation,S is environmental impact factor total number.
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