CN106503886A - A kind of modeling method for carrying out health state evaluation to power equipment - Google Patents
A kind of modeling method for carrying out health state evaluation to power equipment Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of modeling method for carrying out health state evaluation to power equipment, it is related to technical field of electric power, can realize being modeled the operation health status characteristic of power equipment, consequently facilitating carrying out the operation such as reasonable employment and maintenance, failure predication and distribution management to which.The modeling method for being used for power equipment health state evaluation includes：Set up first class index matter-element and its judgment matrix；Set up two-level index matter-element and its judgment matrix；Using extension science principle construction one-level, the Classical field of two-level index matter-element and section domain；The degree of association that index matter-elements at different levels are calculated using extension science principle；The comprehensive index matter-element degrees of association at different levels obtain the health status of power equipment.
Description
Technical field
A kind of the present invention relates to technical field of electric power, more particularly to modeling side for carrying out health state evaluation to power equipment
Method.
Background technology
With economic fast development, the supply of electric power situation growing tension of China, throughout the country only because of network system
The economic loss that failure is caused just is up to upper trillion, and the main cause for analyzing which is that the failure to network system can not be located in time
Reason.
Because China's electric power enterprise executes the unified periodic inspection system in the whole nation for a long time always, its substantive characteristics is simple
Based on the time cycle.This pattern is clearly present and does not consider in the actual state of equipment, maintenance process that specific aim is strong, the palm
Hold negative effect of equipment state is inadequate, do not meet the existing power equipment life-span fault observer, generation excess maintenance etc etc. no
Good problem, it is clear that whether troubleshooting system improves the reliability level for directly affecting power equipment, therefore by power equipment
Operation health status characteristic is modeled, and for the operation such as its reasonable employment and maintenance, failure predication and distribution management, has
Particularly important meaning.
Content of the invention
The technical problem to be solved is to provide a kind of modeling for carrying out power equipment health state evaluation
Method, can realize being modeled the operation health status of power equipment, be easy to carry out reasonable employment and maintenance, event to which
The operation such as barrier prediction and distribution management.
For solving above-mentioned technical problem, the present invention is adopted the following technical scheme that：
The invention provides a kind of modeling method for carrying out health state evaluation to power equipment, this comprises the following steps：
（1）Set up first class index matter-element and its judgment matrix；
（2）Set up two-level index matter-element and its judgment matrix；
（3）Using extension science principle construction one-level, the Classical field of two-level index matter-element and section domain；
（4）The degree of association that index matter-elements at different levels are calculated using extension science principle；
（5）The comprehensive index matter-element degrees of association at different levels obtain the health status of power equipment；
The step（1）Set up first class index matter-element and the step（2）Two-level index matter-element is set up, including：Draw according to function
Divide, the mode that structure is divided is set up；
The step（3）One-level, the Classical field of two-level index matter-element and section domain, including：Calculated by statistical method and combined
Expertise and the national standard with reference to associate power equipment and company standard are drawn score function and carry out marking acquisition.
Preferably, the step（1）With the step（2）Judgment matrix using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) principle, according to sentencing
1 ~ 9 grade of scale principle of disconnected matrix judges the important relationship on same level between two elements, obtains judgment matrix, then passes through this level
Being compared to each other between each index, obtains this grade of index judgment matrix and weight.
Preferably, the step（3）Classical field include：Well, preferably, typically, note, wherein, well：0.85~1；
Preferably：0.75~0.85；Typically：0.6~0.75；Note：0~0.6.
Preferably, the step（3）Section domain span be：0~1.
Preferably, the step（4）The degree of association of index matter-elements at different levels is calculated, including：
Each evaluation index matter-element with regard to the improvement elementary dependent function of different demarcation grade is：
Wherein ρ (x, x0, X) and ρ (x, x0,X0) it is respectively desired valuexWith Classical fieldX 0With section domainXRight side away from D (x, x0,X)
Characteristic index valuexWith Classical fieldX 0With section domainXPlace value；
Cable run status target evaluation grade is divided into m grade interval, the evaluation system degree of association square containing n index
Battle array C be：
Wherein K (xij) represent incidence coefficient；
Each index degree of association Matrix C is carried out standardization processing：
Wherein K (xij) expression incidence coefficient, max (| K (xi•) |) characterize the i-th row element maximum value；
According to the demand of cable run evaluation problem, for the computing formula of the assessment matter-element Synthesis Relational Grade comprising s index
For：
Wherein ωiThe corresponding index weights of matter-element, k (x are assessed for i-thi) characterize incidence matrix standardization processing.
The invention provides a kind of modeling method for carrying out health state evaluation to power equipment, the method initially sets up respectively
Then index matter-elements at different levels are carried out the structure in Classical field and section domain by the index matter-element and its judgment matrix of level using Method of extenics
Make, the degree of association for finally calculating index matter-elements at different levels further according to extension science principle finally gives the healthy shape of corresponding power equipment
State, the method enable to the health status that staff understands corresponding power equipment in time, consequently facilitating closing to which
The operations such as reason is used and keeped in repair, failure predication and distribution management.
Description of the drawings
In order to be illustrated more clearly that the embodiment of the present invention or technical scheme of the prior art, embodiment will be described below
Needed for accompanying drawing to be used be briefly described, it should be apparent that, drawings in the following description be only the present invention some
Embodiment, for those of ordinary skill in the art, on the premise of not paying creative work, can be with according to these
Accompanying drawing obtains other accompanying drawings.
Fig. 1 is that the flow process of the modeling method for carrying out health state evaluation to power equipment provided in an embodiment of the present invention is shown
It is intended to；
Fig. 2 is the matter-element hierarchical mode schematic diagram of cable run provided in an embodiment of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
Accompanying drawing in below in conjunction with the embodiment of the present invention, to the embodiment of the present invention in technical scheme carry out clear, complete
Site preparation is described, it is clear that described embodiment is a part of embodiment of the invention, rather than whole embodiments.It is based on this
Embodiment in bright, the every other reality obtained under the premise of creative work is not made by those of ordinary skill in the art
Example is applied, the scope of protection of the invention is belonged to.
Embodiments provide a kind of modeling method that health state evaluation is carried out to power equipment, such as Fig. 1 institutes
Show, the method includes：
Step S1, set up first class index matter-element and its judgment matrix.
Realize power cable health status is accurately and comprehensively assessed, need accurate assurance reflect which runs shape
The quantity of state of state, and the operability of bonding state assessment, define comprising Test Information, operation information, patrol and examine the shape of information
State duration set, establishes cable run State Assessment Index System.Evaluation index system is divided into two grades, and two-level index is state
Amount, as shown in Fig. 2.First order index includes：Cable body, cable termination, cable intermediate joint, earthed system, cable lead to
Road, auxiliary equipment；Using the principle of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), two-spot on same level is judged according to 1 ~ 9 grade of scale principle of judgment matrix
Important relationship between element, obtains judgment matrix, by being compared to each other between each index of first class index, the first class index for obtaining
Judgment matrix and weight are as shown in table 1.
1 power cable first class index judgment matrix of table and weight vectors
Step S2, set up two-level index matter-element and its judgment matrix.
Second level index includes：Belong to the line load of cable body, insulaion resistance, distortion of the cable, buried depth, fire prevention resistance
Combustion, belongs to filth, fire protection flame retarding, breakage and the temperature of cable termination, belongs to the fire protection flame retarding of cable intermediate joint, breakage, temperature
Degree, running environment, belong to down conductor, the earth resistance of earthed system, belong to cable shaft, the cable pipe trench ring of cable passage
Border, belongs to the firmness of auxiliary equipment, identifies complete, corrosion degree.
In the same manner, the two-level index judgment matrix of each first class index is set up, all parts phase is obtained using algorithm based on the largest eigenvalue
The weight of the quantity of state that answers, as shown in table 2：
2 two-level index of table（Quantity of state）Weight
Step S3, using extension science principle construction one-level, the Classical field of two-level index matter-element and section domain.
Due to cable run quantity of state index unit different, it is therefore desirable to a unified yardstick is to equipment
Quantity of state is estimated.The present embodiment carries out 0 ~ 1 quantization according to the degradation of state figureofmerit with score to state figureofmerit,
Using 0.6 as danger threshold, 1 is perfect condition, and cable run all parts state is given a mark with this.
State figureofmerit is divided into two class of qualitative index and quantitative target.For qualitative index adopts method of expertise, according to
Impact to equipment state is given a mark, and fraction is higher to show that equipment running status are better；For quantitative target Rating Model is adopted
Linear segmented function is used, is given a mark with reference to the national standard and company standard drafting score function of relevant device, will assessment
As a result it is divided into 4 states, respectively：Well, preferably, typically and note.
The present embodiment have collected certain 10kV cable line fault sample data, calculate each two grades of matter-elements by statistical method
Value mathematic expectaion and mean square deviation, then, reconstruct each matter-element Classical field and section domain, according to cable run state draw
The accurate and related testing regulations of minute mark and expertise etc., can provide Classical field and the section domain of each index.
The Classical field of cable body index and section domain, as shown in table 3：
The Classical field of 3 cable body index of table and section domain
The Classical field of cable termination index and section domain, as shown in table 4：
The Classical field of 4 cable termination index of table and section domain
The Classical field of cable intermediate joint index and section domain, as shown in table 5：
The Classical field of 5 cable intermediate joint index of table and section domain
The Classical field of earthed system index and section domain, as shown in table 6：
The Classical field of 6 earthed system index of table and section domain
The Classical field of cable passage index and section domain, as shown in table 7：
The Classical field of 7 cable passage index of table and section domain
The Classical field of auxiliary equipment index and section domain, as shown in table 8：
The Classical field of 8 auxiliary equipment index of table and section domain
Step S4, the degree of association for calculating index matter-elements at different levels using extension science principle.
According to matter-element model, in cable run running status evaluation system, assessment target can be regarded as object
Unit, assessment target are included below some first class index, each first class index can be regarded as a first class index matter-element；Each
All include several two-level index below first class index, each two-level index is considered as a two-level index matter-element；Therefore, refer to
Mark matter-element layered system is one-to-one with cable run State Assessment Index System.
Assume the Classical field X0=[a, b] of certain index matter-element, save domain X=[c, d], wherein, X0 X embody cable
The ins and outs of road evaluation index.According to the raw sample data of cable run running status, by normal approach method with regard to energy
The Classical field of each index matter-element is enough tried to achieve；Just can be true according to the maximum and minimum of a value of each index in raw sample data
The section domain of each index matter-element fixed.
In the layering assessment of cable run health status, because the general feelings of optimum point through the desired value of standardization
Near the right side of grade interval under condition, thus introduce here right side away from concept, the right side of desired value x and interval X0 away from for：
In the middle of cable run state estimation divided rank is interval, the Classical field in or worst region optimum near grade has with domain is saved
Public point, in order to avoid Classical field X0 has common point with section domain X, can will be close to the classics of grade optimal region
The domain upper limit is taken less than the value for being still close to the upper limit, and but the Classical field lower bound that will be close to the worst region of grade takes more than is close to lower limit
Value.The place value of desired value x and Classical field X0 and section domain X is：
In the middle of above formula, ρ (x, x0, X) and ρ (x, x0 X0) be respectively desired value x and Classical field X0 and save the right side of domain X away from.
Correlation function is the quantification tool that extension science describes things, for cable run health status is layered evaluation problem,
The building method of extenics estimation matter-element model correlation function is varied from.For different demarcation hierarchical region, generally using same
Correlation function calculating formula.But in optimum or worst grade region, that is, near highest or minimum when, it is desirable to ρ (x, X)=
ρ(x,X0)= -1；If continuing to adopt identical correlation function calculating formula, then correlation function value is 0, but now x is not
It is the critical value in grade optimal region or worst region.Therefore, when numerical value near grade optimal region or worst region most
When high level or minimum, it is irrational to calculate the element using same correlation function with the correlation degree of the nest of intervals.Here
In this case correlation function is improved, using right side away from replacement away from optimum point x0 is elected as near the Classical field upper limit
Position, but the Classical field upper limit that will be close to grade optimal region takes less than is close to the value of the upper limit, will be close to the worst area of grade
The Classical field lower bound in domain is taken more than the value for being still close to lower limit, so ensures that Classical field X0 does not have common point with section domain X.
Each evaluation index matter-element with regard to the improvement elementary dependent function of different demarcation grade is：
Wherein with respectively desired valuexWith Classical fieldX 0With section domainXRight side away from characteristic index valuexWith Classical fieldX 0With section domainX
Place value；
If cable run status target evaluation grade is divided into m grade interval, then the evaluation system containing n index
Degree of association Matrix C is：
Wherein K (xij) represent incidence coefficient；
Each index degree of association Matrix C is carried out standardization processing：
Wherein K (xij) expression incidence coefficient, max (| K (xi•) |) characterize the i-th row element maximum value；
According to the demand of cable run evaluation problem, for the computing formula of the assessment matter-element Synthesis Relational Grade comprising s index
For：
Wherein ωiThe corresponding index weights of matter-element, k (x are assessed for i-thi) characterize incidence matrix standardization processing.
In a concrete application scene of the embodiment of the present invention, with the test of certain midium voltage cable circuit and patrol and examine data as calculate
Example, calculates its finally corresponding degree of membership of various states.The cable model of the track laying is LSN 10/3.1-3X9.5m.Should
Section line load is the 70% of rated load；Insulation resistance test is compared without marked difference with initial value；Cable profile has light at two
Micro- breakage；Fire protection flame retarding and buried depth all meet design requirement；There is filth on cable termination surface, slightly damaged, and alternate temperature difference is
7K, connector temperature are 70 DEG C, and fire protection flame retarding measure is perfect；Cable intermediate joint heating without exception, running environment are excellent, medial head
Without substantially damaged, fire protection flame retarding satisfaction requirement；Down conductor outward appearance is good, and earth resistance is 8.7 Ω；Cable shaft without ponding,
Then without without breakage, without ponding, without sinking, cable run protection zone running environment is normal, and fire protection flame retarding meets for cable pipe trench on basis
Design requirement；Auxiliary equipment is firmly installed, but has moderate corrosion.Mark setting height(from bottom) is not up to required.
Actual health status according to this section of cable run obtains each unit status and measures point as shown in table 9：
9 each unit status of table is measured point
The incidence matrix of cable body index is as shown in table 10：
The incidence matrix of 10 cable body index of table
The incidence matrix of cable termination index, as shown in table 11：
The incidence matrix of 11 cable termination index of table
The incidence matrix of cable intermediate joint index, as shown in table 12：
The incidence matrix of 12 cable intermediate joint index of table
The incidence matrix of earthed system index, as shown in table 13 below：
The incidence matrix of 13 earthed system index of table
The incidence matrix of cable passage index, as shown in table 14 below：
The incidence matrix of 14 cable passage index of table
The incidence matrix of auxiliary equipment index, as shown in Table 15：
The incidence matrix of 15 auxiliary equipment index of table
Step S5, the comprehensive index matter-element degrees of association at different levels obtain the health status of power equipment.
By each two-level index according to first class index weight is obtained after respective Weight, this section of cable can be obtained in the same manner
The final degree of association final Comprehensive Evaluation result of vector of circuit is：[0.0669,-0.0639,-0.2513,-0.2578].Knot
Four kinds of state-evaluations are closed, the degree of association with kilter is 0.0669；The degree of association with preferable state is -0.0639；With general
The degree of association of state is -0.2513；The degree of association with attention state is -0.2578.Therefore, provable this section of cable run fortune
Row is in normal condition.
To sum up, a kind of modeling method for carrying out health state evaluation to power equipment, the party are embodiments provided
Method initially sets up index matter-elements at different levels and its judgment matrix, then carries out classics using Method of extenics to index matter-elements at different levels
Domain and the construction in section domain, the degree of association for finally calculating index matter-elements at different levels further according to extension science principle finally give corresponding electric power and set
Standby health status, the method enable to the health status that staff understands corresponding power equipment in time, consequently facilitating
The operation such as reasonable employment and maintenance, failure predication and distribution management is carried out to which.
Through the above description of the embodiments, those skilled in the art can be understood that the present invention can be borrowed
Software is helped to add the mode of required common hardware to realize, naturally it is also possible to which by hardware, but the former is more preferably in many cases
Embodiment.Such understanding, the portion that technical scheme is substantially contributed in other words is based on to prior art
Divide and can be embodied in the form of software product, the computer software product is stored in the storage medium that can read, such as count
The floppy disk of calculation machine, hard disk or CD etc., use so that a computer equipment including some instructions（Can be personal computer,
Server, or the network equipment etc.）Execute the method described in each embodiment of the invention.
The above, the only specific embodiment of the present invention, but protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto, any
Those familiar with the art the invention discloses technical scope in, change or replacement can be readily occurred in, should all be contained
Cover within protection scope of the present invention.Therefore, protection scope of the present invention should be defined by the scope of the claims.
Claims (5)
1. a kind of modeling method for carrying out health state evaluation to power equipment, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps：
（1）Set up first class index matter-element and its judgment matrix；
（2）Set up two-level index matter-element and its judgment matrix；
（3）Using extension science principle construction one-level, the Classical field of two-level index matter-element and section domain；
（4）The degree of association that index matter-elements at different levels are calculated using extension science principle；
（5）The comprehensive index matter-element degrees of association at different levels obtain the health status of power equipment；
The step（1）Set up first class index matter-element and the step（2）Two-level index matter-element is set up, including：According to function, knot
Structure, type carry out division foundation；
The step（3）One-level, the Classical field of two-level index matter-element and section domain, including：Calculated by statistical method and combined
Expertise and the national standard with reference to associate power equipment and company standard are drawn score function and carry out marking acquisition.
2. a kind of modeling method for carrying out health state evaluation to power equipment according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：
The step（1）With the step（2）Judgment matrix using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) principle, according to 1 ~ 9 grade of scale of judgment matrix
Principle judges the important relationship on same level between two elements, obtains judgment matrix, then by the phase between this grade of each index
Mutually compare, obtain this grade of index judgment matrix and weight.
3. a kind of modeling method for carrying out health state evaluation to power equipment according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：
The step（3）Classical field include：Well, preferably, typically, note, wherein, well：0.85~1；Preferably：0.75~0.85；
Typically：0.6~0.75；Note：0~0.6.
4. a kind of modeling method for carrying out health state evaluation to power equipment according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：
The step（3）Section domain span be：0~1.
5. a kind of modeling method for carrying out health state evaluation to power equipment according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：
The step（4）The degree of association of index matter-elements at different levels is calculated, including：
Each evaluation index matter-element with regard to the improvement elementary dependent function of different demarcation grade is：
Wherein ρ (x, x0, X) and ρ (x, x0,X0) it is respectively desired valuexWith Classical fieldX 0With section domainXRight side away from D (x, x0, X) and table
Levy desired valuexWith Classical fieldX 0With section domainXPlace value；
Cable run status target evaluation grade is divided into m grade interval, the evaluation system degree of association square containing n index
Battle array C be：
Wherein K (xij) represent incidence coefficient；
Each index degree of association Matrix C is carried out standardization processing：
Wherein K (xij) expression incidence coefficient, max (| K (xi•) |) characterize the i-th row element maximum value；
According to the demand of cable run evaluation problem, for the computing formula of the assessment matter-element Synthesis Relational Grade comprising s index
For：
Wherein ωiThe corresponding index weights of matter-element, k (x are assessed for i-thi) characterize incidence matrix standardization processing.
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| CN108960654A (en) * | 2018-07-11 | 2018-12-07 | 佛山科学技术学院 | A kind of the equipment part health control method and system of Machine oriented study |
| CN109754152A (en) * | 2018-11-23 | 2019-05-14 | 国网天津市电力公司 | Same period line loss end achievement evaluation method based on Extension AHP |
| CN111859594A (en) * | 2019-04-15 | 2020-10-30 | 上海申通地铁集团有限公司 | Method and system for evaluating service life of subway signal equipment |
| CN112100803A (en) * | 2020-07-22 | 2020-12-18 | 中国铁路上海局集团有限公司上海动车段 | Method for evaluating health condition of main contact of power circuit breaker of motor train unit |
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