CN106503885A - A kind of method that health state evaluation is carried out to cable run - Google Patents
A kind of method that health state evaluation is carried out to cable run Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of method for carrying out health state evaluation to cable run, it is related to technical field of electric power, can realize accurately assessing the operation health status of cable run, be easy to the operation such as reasonable employment and maintenance, failure predication and distribution management be carried out to which.The method that this pair of cable run carries out health state evaluation includes：Set up index matter-element hierarchical mode；Agriculture products matter-element Classical field and the weight of section domain and evaluation index system；Two-level index matter-element is estimated, its degree of association is calculated, the assessment to two-level index matter-element is completed；The assessment result of integrated two-stage index matter-element, calculates the degree of association of corresponding first class index matter-element, completes the assessment to first class index matter-element；The assessment result of comprehensive first class index matter-element, calculates the degree of association of target matter-element, completes the assessment of target matter-element；Cable health status is obtained according to final comprehensive grading.
Description
Technical field
A kind of the present invention relates to technical field of electric power, more particularly to method that health state evaluation is carried out to cable run.
Background technology
With economic fast development, the supply of electric power situation growing tension of China, throughout the country only because of network system
The economic loss that failure is caused just is up to upper trillion, and the main cause for analyzing which is that the failure to network system can not be timely
Process.
It is known that developing rapidly for State Grid's industry illustrates that the whole nation is sent out, the capacity of defeated, distribution is being continuously increased, electricity
Force system is in expanding day.Certainly the power equipment for needing is also more and more, and electrical equipment fault always jeopardizes power system
The principal element of safety, it is ensured that Operation of Electric Systems reliability, is even more important to developing national economy.For that purpose it is necessary to supervise in real time
The running status of power equipment is surveyed, the initial failure of inside is checked in time, Accident prevention is in possible trouble.
In various power equipments, power cable line is one of most important electrical equipment in network system.Due to cable
, inevitably there are various failures in the long-term continuous operation in electrical network in road.Make great efforts the failure for preventing and reducing cable run
With the generation of accident, it is ensured that the normal operation of cable run, it is power system problem in the urgent need to address.
Content of the invention
The technical problem to be solved is to provide a kind of method for carrying out health state evaluation to cable run,
Can realize accurately assessing the operation health status of cable run, be easy to reasonable employment and maintenance, event be carried out to which
The operation such as barrier prediction and distribution management.
For solving above-mentioned technical problem, the present invention is adopted the following technical scheme that：
The invention provides a kind of method for carrying out health state evaluation to cable run, this comprises the following steps：
（1）Set up index matter-element hierarchical mode；
（2）Agriculture products matter-element Classical field and the weight of section domain and evaluation index system；
（3）Two-level index matter-element is estimated, its degree of association is calculated, the assessment to two-level index matter-element is completed；
（4）The assessment result of integrated two-stage index matter-element, calculates the degree of association of corresponding first class index matter-element, completes to first class index
The assessment of matter-element；
（5）The assessment result of comprehensive first class index matter-element, calculates the degree of association of target matter-element, completes the assessment of target matter-element；
（6）Cable health status is obtained according to final comprehensive grading；
The first class index matter-element includes：Cable body, cable termination, cable intermediate joint, earthed system, cable passage, auxiliary
Help facility；
The two-level index matter-element includes：Belong to the line load of cable body, insulaion resistance, distortion of the cable, buried depth, fire prevention
Fire-retardant, belong to filth, fire protection flame retarding, breakage and the temperature of cable termination, belong to the fire protection flame retarding of cable intermediate joint, breakage,
Temperature, running environment, belong to down conductor, the earth resistance of earthed system, belong to cable shaft, the cable pipe trench of cable passage
Environment, belongs to the firmness of auxiliary equipment, identifies complete, corrosion degree；
The Classical field includes：Well, preferably, typically, note, wherein, well：0.85~1；Preferably：0.75~0.85；Typically：
0.6~0.75；Note：0~0.6；
Section domain span is：0~1.
Preferably, the step（2）The weight of evaluation index system, including：Using analytic hierarchy process (AHP), according to judgment matrix
1 ~ 9 grade of scale principle obtains judgment matrix judging the important relationship on same level between two elements, in conjunction with method of expertise
Obtain the weight of evaluation index system.
Preferably, the step（3）, step（4）, step（5）Its degree of association is calculated, including：
Each evaluation index matter-element with regard to the improvement elementary dependent function of different demarcation grade is：
Wherein ρ (x, x0, X) and ρ (x, x0,X0) it is respectively desired valuexWith Classical fieldX 0With section domainXRight side away from D (x, x0,X)
Characteristic index valuexWith Classical fieldX 0With section domainXPlace value；
Cable run status target evaluation grade is divided into m grade interval, the evaluation system degree of association square containing n index
Battle array C be：
Wherein K (xij) represent incidence coefficient；
Each index degree of association Matrix C is carried out standardization processing：
Wherein K (xij) expression incidence coefficient, max (| K (xi•) |) characterize the i-th row element maximum value；
According to the demand of cable run evaluation problem, for the computing formula of the assessment matter-element Synthesis Relational Grade comprising s index
For：
Wherein ωiThe corresponding index weights of matter-element, k (x are assessed for i-thi) characterize incidence matrix standardization processing.
Preferably, the step（6）Cable health shape is obtained according to final comprehensive grading includes：In conjunction with the classics
Domain：Well, preferably, typically, the four kinds of states and the calculated degree of association for noting are passed judgment on.
The invention provides a kind of method for carrying out health state evaluation to cable run, the method is based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
The judgment matrix of each level is obtained, in conjunction with the weight that method of expertise obtains assessment system, is finally obtained using Method of extenics
To the health state evaluation of cable run, timely, accurate assessment is made to cable run health status, work is enabled to
Personnel understand the health status of corresponding cable run in time, consequently facilitating carrying out reasonable employment and maintenance, failure predication to which
And the operation such as distribution management.
Description of the drawings
In order to be illustrated more clearly that the embodiment of the present invention or technical scheme of the prior art, embodiment will be described below
Needed for accompanying drawing to be used be briefly described, it should be apparent that, drawings in the following description be only the present invention some
Embodiment, for those of ordinary skill in the art, on the premise of not paying creative work, can be with according to these
Accompanying drawing obtains other accompanying drawings.
Fig. 1 is that the flow process of the method for carrying out health state evaluation to cable run provided in an embodiment of the present invention is illustrated
Figure；
Fig. 2 is the matter-element hierarchical mode schematic diagram of cable run provided in an embodiment of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
Accompanying drawing in below in conjunction with the embodiment of the present invention, to the embodiment of the present invention in technical scheme carry out clear, complete
Site preparation is described, it is clear that described embodiment is a part of embodiment of the invention, rather than whole embodiments.It is based on this
Embodiment in bright, the every other reality obtained under the premise of creative work is not made by those of ordinary skill in the art
Example is applied, the scope of protection of the invention is belonged to.
A kind of method that health state evaluation is carried out to cable run is embodiments provided, as shown in Fig. 1, should
Method includes：
Step S1, set up index matter-element hierarchical mode.
Realize power cable health status is accurately and comprehensively assessed, need accurate assurance reflect which runs shape
The quantity of state of state, and the operability of bonding state assessment, define comprising Test Information, operation information, patrol and examine the shape of information
State duration set, establishes cable run State Assessment Index System.Evaluation index system is divided into two grades, and two-level index is state
Amount, as shown in Fig. 2.First order index includes：Cable body, cable termination, cable intermediate joint, earthed system, cable lead to
Road, auxiliary equipment；Second level index includes：Belong to the line load of cable body, insulaion resistance, distortion of the cable, buried depth, anti-
Fire is fire-retardant, belongs to filth, fire protection flame retarding, breakage and the temperature of cable termination, belongs to the fire protection flame retarding of cable intermediate joint, breaks
Damage, temperature, running environment, belong to down conductor, the earth resistance of earthed system, belong to cable shaft, the cable of cable passage
Pipe trench environment, belongs to the firmness of auxiliary equipment, identifies complete, corrosion degree.
Step S2, agriculture products matter-element Classical field and section domain and the weight of determination evaluation index system.
Using the principle of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), according to 1 ~ 9 grade of scale principle of judgment matrix judge on same level two elements it
Between important relationship, obtain judgment matrix, by being compared to each other between each index of first class index, the first class index for obtaining judges
Matrix and weight are as shown in table 1.
1 power cable first class index judgment matrix of table and weight vectors
In the same manner, according to expert estimation, the two-level index judgment matrix of each first class index is set up, is obtained respectively using algorithm based on the largest eigenvalue
The weight of the corresponding quantity of state of individual part, as shown in table 2：
2 two-level index of table（Quantity of state）Weight
Due to cable run quantity of state index unit different, it is therefore desirable to the state of unified yardstick to equipment
Amount is estimated.The present embodiment carries out 0 ~ 1 quantization according to the degradation of state figureofmerit with score to state figureofmerit, with
0.6 used as danger threshold, and 1 is perfect condition, and cable run all parts state is given a mark with this.
State figureofmerit is divided into two class of qualitative index and quantitative target.For qualitative index adopts method of expertise, according to
Impact to equipment state is given a mark, and fraction is higher to show that equipment running status are better；For quantitative target Rating Model is adopted
Linear segmented function is used, is given a mark with reference to the national standard and company standard drafting score function of relevant device, will assessment
As a result it is divided into 4 states, respectively：Well, preferably, typically and note.
The present embodiment have collected certain 10kV cable line fault sample data, calculate each two grades of matter-elements by statistical method
Value mathematic expectaion and mean square deviation, then, reconstruct each matter-element Classical field and section domain, according to cable run state draw
The accurate and related testing regulations of minute mark and expertise etc., can provide Classical field and the section domain of each index.
The Classical field of cable body index and section domain, as shown in table 3：
The Classical field of 3 cable body index of table and section domain
The Classical field of cable termination index and section domain, as shown in table 4：
The Classical field of 4 cable termination index of table and section domain
The Classical field of cable intermediate joint index and section domain, as shown in table 5：
The Classical field of 5 cable intermediate joint index of table and section domain
The Classical field of earthed system index and section domain, as shown in table 6：
The Classical field of 6 earthed system index of table and section domain
The Classical field of cable passage index and section domain, as shown in table 7：
The Classical field of 7 cable passage index of table and section domain
The Classical field of auxiliary equipment index and section domain, as shown in table 8：
The Classical field of 8 auxiliary equipment index of table and section domain
Step S3, two-level index matter-element is estimated, calculates its degree of association, complete the assessment to two-level index matter-element.
According to matter-element model, in cable run running status evaluation system, assessment target can be regarded as object
Unit, assessment target are included below some first class index, each first class index can be regarded as a first class index matter-element；Each
All include several two-level index below first class index, each two-level index is considered as a two-level index matter-element；Therefore, refer to
Mark matter-element layered system is one-to-one with cable run State Assessment Index System.
Assume the Classical field X0=[a, b] of certain index matter-element, save domain X=[c, d], wherein, X0 X embody cable
The ins and outs of road evaluation index.According to the raw sample data of cable run running status, by normal approach method with regard to energy
The Classical field of each index matter-element is enough tried to achieve；Just can be true according to the maximum and minimum of a value of each index in raw sample data
The section domain of each index matter-element fixed.
In the layering assessment of cable run health status, because the general feelings of optimum point through the desired value of standardization
Near the right side of grade interval under condition, thus introduce here right side away from concept, the right side of desired value x and interval X0 away from for：
In the middle of cable run state estimation divided rank is interval, the Classical field in or worst region optimum near grade has with domain is saved
Public point, in order to avoid Classical field X0 has common point with section domain X, can will be close to the classics of grade optimal region
The domain upper limit is taken less than the value for being still close to the upper limit, and but the Classical field lower bound that will be close to the worst region of grade takes more than is close to lower limit
Value.The place value of desired value x and Classical field X0 and section domain X is：
In the middle of above formula, ρ (x, x0, X) and ρ (x, x0,X0) be respectively desired value x and Classical field X0 and save the right side of domain X away from.
Correlation function is the quantification tool that extension science describes things, for cable run health status is layered evaluation problem,
The building method of extenics estimation matter-element model correlation function is varied from.For different demarcation hierarchical region, generally using same
Correlation function calculating formula.But in optimum or worst grade region, that is, near highest or minimum when, it is desirable to ρ (x, X)=
ρ(x,X0)= -1；If continuing to adopt identical correlation function calculating formula, then correlation function value is 0, but now x is not
It is the critical value in grade optimal region or worst region.Therefore, when numerical value near grade optimal region or worst region most
When high level or minimum, it is irrational to calculate the element using same correlation function with the correlation degree of the nest of intervals.Here
In this case correlation function is improved, using right side away from replacement away from optimum point x0 is elected as near the Classical field upper limit
Position, but the Classical field upper limit that will be close to grade optimal region takes less than is close to the value of the upper limit, will be close to the worst area of grade
The Classical field lower bound in domain is taken more than the value for being still close to lower limit, so ensures that Classical field X0 does not have common point with section domain X.
Each evaluation index matter-element with regard to the improvement elementary dependent function of different demarcation grade is：
Wherein ρ (x, x0, X) and ρ (x, x0,X0) it is respectively desired valuexWith Classical fieldX 0With section domainXRight side away from D (x, x0,X)
Characteristic index valuexWith Classical fieldX 0With section domainXPlace value；
If cable run status target evaluation grade is divided into m grade interval, then the evaluation system containing n index
Degree of association Matrix C is：
Wherein K (xij) represent incidence coefficient；
Each index degree of association Matrix C is carried out standardization processing：
Wherein K (xij) expression incidence coefficient, max (| K (xi•) |) characterize the i-th row element maximum value；
According to the demand of cable run evaluation problem, for the computing formula of the assessment matter-element Synthesis Relational Grade comprising s index
For：
Wherein ωiThe corresponding index weights of matter-element, k (x are assessed for i-thi) characterize incidence matrix standardization processing.
Step S4, the assessment result of integrated two-stage index matter-element, calculate the degree of association of corresponding first class index matter-element, and it is right to complete
The assessment of first class index matter-element.
The assessment result of the two-level index matter-element that combining step S3 is obtained is using corresponding with the calculating of step S3 identical method
The degree of association of first class index matter-element, completes the assessment to first class index matter-element.
Step S5, the assessment result of comprehensive first class index matter-element, calculate the degree of association of target matter-element, complete target matter-element
Assessment.
The assessment result of the first class index matter-element that combining step S4 is obtained is adopted and calculates target with step S3 identical method
The degree of association of matter-element, completes the assessment of target matter-element.
In a concrete application scene of the embodiment of the present invention, with the test of certain midium voltage cable circuit and patrol and examine data and be
Example, calculates its finally corresponding degree of membership of various states.The cable model of the track laying is LSN 10/3.1-3X9.5m.
This section of line load for rated load 70%；Insulation resistance test is compared without marked difference with initial value；Cable profile has at two
Little damage；Fire protection flame retarding and buried depth all meet design requirement；There is filth on cable termination surface, slightly damaged, alternate temperature difference
For 7K, connector temperature is 70 DEG C, and fire protection flame retarding measure is perfect；Cable intermediate joint heating without exception, running environment are excellent, middle
Head is required without substantially breakage, fire protection flame retarding satisfaction；Down conductor outward appearance is good, and earth resistance is 8.7 Ω；Cable shaft is without product
Water, then without without breakage, without ponding, without sinking, cable run protection zone running environment is normal, fire protection flame retarding for cable pipe trench on basis
Meet design requirement；Auxiliary equipment is firmly installed, but has moderate corrosion.Mark setting height(from bottom) is not up to required.
Actual health status according to this section of cable run obtains each unit status and measures point as shown in table 9：
9 each unit status of table is measured point
The incidence matrix of cable body index is as shown in table 10：
The incidence matrix of 10 cable body index of table
The incidence matrix of cable termination index, as shown in table 11：
The incidence matrix of 11 cable termination index of table
The incidence matrix of cable intermediate joint index, as shown in table 12：
The incidence matrix of 12 cable intermediate joint index of table
The incidence matrix of earthed system index, as shown in table 13 below：
The incidence matrix of 13 earthed system index of table
The incidence matrix of cable passage index, as shown in table 14 below：
The incidence matrix of 14 cable passage index of table
The incidence matrix of auxiliary equipment index, as shown in Table 15：
The incidence matrix of 15 auxiliary equipment index of table
Step S6, cable health status is obtained according to final comprehensive grading.
By each two-level index according to first class index weight is obtained after respective Weight, this section of cable can be obtained in the same manner
The final degree of association final Comprehensive Evaluation result of vector of circuit is：[0.0669,-0.0639,-0.2513,-0.2578].Knot
Four kinds of state-evaluations are closed, the degree of association with kilter is 0.0669；The degree of association with preferable state is -0.0639；With general
The degree of association of state is -0.2513；The degree of association with attention state is -0.2578.Therefore, provable this section of cable run fortune
Row is in normal condition.
To sum up, a kind of method that health state evaluation is carried out to cable run, the method base are embodiments provided
In the judgment matrix that analytic hierarchy process (AHP) obtains each level, in conjunction with the weight that method of expertise obtains assessment system, finally adopt
Method of extenics obtains the health state evaluation of cable run, makes timely, accurate assessment to cable run health status,
Enable to the health status that staff understands corresponding cable run in time, consequently facilitating to its carry out reasonable employment and
The operation such as maintenance, failure predication and distribution management.
Through the above description of the embodiments, those skilled in the art can be understood that the present invention can be borrowed
Software is helped to add the mode of required common hardware to realize, naturally it is also possible to which by hardware, but the former is more preferably in many cases
Embodiment.Such understanding, the portion that technical scheme is substantially contributed in other words is based on to prior art
Divide and can be embodied in the form of software product, the computer software product is stored in the storage medium that can read, such as count
The floppy disk of calculation machine, hard disk or CD etc., use so that a computer equipment including some instructions（Can be personal computer,
Server, or the network equipment etc.）Execute the method described in each embodiment of the invention.
The above, the only specific embodiment of the present invention, but protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto, any
Those familiar with the art the invention discloses technical scope in, change or replacement can be readily occurred in, should all be contained
Cover within protection scope of the present invention.Therefore, protection scope of the present invention should be defined by the scope of the claims.
Claims (4)
1. a kind of method that health state evaluation is carried out to cable run, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps：
（1）Set up index matter-element hierarchical mode；
（2）Agriculture products matter-element Classical field and the weight of section domain and evaluation index system；
（3）Two-level index matter-element is estimated, its degree of association is calculated, the assessment to two-level index matter-element is completed；
（4）The assessment result of integrated two-stage index matter-element, calculates the degree of association of corresponding first class index matter-element, completes to first class index
The assessment of matter-element；
（5）The assessment result of comprehensive first class index matter-element, calculates the degree of association of target matter-element, completes the assessment of target matter-element；
（6）Cable health status is obtained according to final comprehensive grading；
The first class index matter-element includes：Cable body, cable termination, cable intermediate joint, earthed system, cable passage, auxiliary
Help facility；
The two-level index matter-element includes：Belong to the line load of cable body, insulaion resistance, distortion of the cable, buried depth, fire prevention
Fire-retardant, belong to filth, fire protection flame retarding, breakage and the temperature of cable termination, belong to the fire protection flame retarding of cable intermediate joint, breakage,
Temperature, running environment, belong to down conductor, the earth resistance of earthed system, belong to cable shaft, the cable pipe trench of cable passage
Environment, belongs to the firmness of auxiliary equipment, identifies complete, corrosion degree；
The Classical field includes：Well, preferably, typically, note, wherein, well：0.85~1；Preferably：0.75~0.85；Typically：
0.6~0.75；Note：0~0.6；
Section domain span is：0~1.
2. the method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that the step（2）The weight of evaluation index system, bag
Include：Using analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the important pass on same level between two elements is judged according to 1 ~ 9 grade of scale principle of judgment matrix
System obtains judgment matrix, in conjunction with the weight that method of expertise obtains evaluation index system.
3. the method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that the step（3）, step（4）, step（5）Calculate which
The degree of association, including：
Each evaluation index matter-element with regard to the improvement elementary dependent function of different demarcation grade is：
Wherein ρ (x, x0, X) and ρ (x, x0,X0) it is respectively desired valuexWith Classical fieldX 0With section domainXRight side away from D (x, x0, X) and table
Levy desired valuexWith Classical fieldX 0With section domainXPlace value；
Cable run status target evaluation grade is divided into m grade interval, the evaluation system degree of association square containing n index
Battle array C be：
Wherein K (xij) represent incidence coefficient；
Each index degree of association Matrix C is carried out standardization processing：
Wherein K (xij) expression incidence coefficient, max (| K (xi•) |) characterize the i-th row element maximum value；
According to the demand of cable run evaluation problem, for the computing formula of the assessment matter-element Synthesis Relational Grade comprising s index
For：
Wherein ωiThe corresponding index weights of matter-element, k (x are assessed for i-thi) characterize incidence matrix standardization processing.
4. the method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that the step（6）Obtained according to final comprehensive grading
Cable health status, including：In conjunction with the Classical field：Well, preferably the four kinds of states for, typically, noting and calculated institute
State the degree of association to be passed judgment on.
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