CN106485017A - A kind of Land_use change change in time and space analogy method based on CA Markov model - Google Patents
A kind of Land_use change change in time and space analogy method based on CA Markov model Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of Land_use change change in time and space analogy method based on CA Markov model, comprise the following steps：S1. reclassification is carried out to land use data；S2. Markov model, Calculation and Study regional land use transition probability matrix and transfer face product matrix are set up；S3. every class land used conversion suitability figure, synthesis Land_use change transfer suitability atlas are built；S4. utilize suitability atlas and land use data, predict existing certain year Land_use change area；S5. predict following land use data.This invention suitability is wide, and model is easily understood, easy to operate, and simulation precision is high, from quantity with spatially, Land_use change situation can be predicted.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the technical field of geographic modeling, specifically a kind of Land_use change based on CA-Markov model
Change in time and space analogy method.
Background technology
Three Gorge Reservoir Region in Chongqing is located at Upper Yangtze River hypomere, from the east of Wushan County, west to Jiangjin City, south from Wulong County, north to opening
County, geographic range between 28 ° 28 '～31 ° 44 ' of north latitude, 105 ° 49 '～110 ° 12 ' of east longitude, the southeast, northeast and west place in Hubei handing-over,
Southwest is bordered on river Guizhou Province, and northwest is adjacent with Sichuan and Shanxi.Reservoir area of Three Gorges is eco-functional regionalization Chinese or even that the world is the most special, its water
The functions such as soil holding, water quality protection and bio-diversity maintenance are run for the long-term safety investing huge Three Gorges Projects, long
The flood control of river middle and lower reaches and ecological safety have special, important strategic importance, extensively because of Effects on Engineering, to reservoir area simultaneously
The aspects such as environment, natural resourcess and social economy also have a great impact.Reservoir area of Three Gorges is the serious ecology of water-caused soil loss in China
One of vulnerable environment area, reservoir area soil is barren, soil conservation water holding capacity extreme difference.Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing covers the big portion in reservoir area of Three Gorges
The scope (including 22 districts) divided, has particularly important ecogeography position, its geologic structure is special, and formation lithology is relatively
Difference, once vegetation is destroyed or excessive cultivation, soil erosion, ecological environment will thoroughly be destroyed.Three Gorges Dam Project
Build the Relocation and Settlement migrated with million and exacerbate the land resource of Three Gorge Reservoir Region in Chongqing and the pressure of ecological environment, the soil of reservoir area
Ground receives common concern using variation issue.Zhong County is located in reservoir area of Three Gorges vital organs area, its land use change survey situation relation
To ecological security in Three Gorges reservoir area of Chongqing whether.
Land use change survey both because being restricted by element naturally, was affected by society, economy, technology and historical factor, tool again
There is very strong comprehensive and region.Start with terms of Spatial Pattern of Land Use's Evolution Forecast, carry out Three Gorge Reservoir Region in Chongqing soil
The problems such as research that ground utilizes is for soil sustainable utilization during solution Three Gorge Reservoir Region in Chongqing follow-up developments and ecological safety
Extremely it is necessary.
Content of the invention
In view of this, it is an object of the invention to provide a kind of Land_use change change in time and space mould based on CA-Markov model
Plan method.
The purpose of the present invention is achieved through the following technical solutions, a kind of soil profit based on CA-Markov model
Use change in time and space analogy method, comprise the following steps：S1. reclassification is carried out to land use data；S2. set up Markov mould
Type, Calculation and Study regional land use transition probability matrix and transfer face product matrix；S3. build every class land used conversion suitability
Figure, synthesis Land_use change transfer suitability atlas；S4. suitability atlas and land use data, existing certain year soil of prediction are utilized
Utilize area；S5. predict following land use data.
Further, also include before step S1：Vector data is first converted into raster data, is then converted to ASCII text
Form, by the surface analysis tool of raster data, extracts grade information, then the gradient is converted into ASCII.
Further, in step s3, with waters and construction land as constraints, road, administrative center, water system and the gradient
For restriction factor.
Due to employing technique scheme, the present invention has the advantage that：
1. this research algorithm science, simple, easily realization, model accuracy is high.
2. this research software is easy and simple to handle, and software intellectuality is higher.
Brief description
In order that the object, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention are clearer, below in conjunction with accompanying drawing the present invention is made into
The detailed description of one step, wherein：
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is all kinds of land used transition probability figures；
Fig. 3 is road factor standard modeling process；
Fig. 4 schemes for construction land conversion is suitable；
Fig. 5 is the year two thousand twenty Zhong County Land_use change.
Specific embodiment
Below with reference to accompanying drawing, the preferred embodiments of the present invention are described in detail；It should be appreciated that preferred embodiment
Only for the present invention is described, rather than in order to limit the scope of the invention.
A kind of Land_use change change in time and space analogy method based on CA-Markov model, comprises the following steps：S1. to soil
Ground carries out reclassification using data；S2. Markov model, Calculation and Study regional land use transition probability matrix and transfer are set up
Area matrix；S3. every class land used conversion suitability figure, synthesis Land_use change transfer suitability atlas are built；S4. utilize suitability
Atlas and land use data, predict existing certain year Land_use change area；S5. predict following land use data.
Preferably, also include before step S1：Vector data is first converted into raster data, is then converted to ASCII text
Form, by the surface analysis tool of raster data, extracts grade information, then the gradient is converted into ASCII.
Preferably, in step s3, with waters and construction land as constraints, road, administrative center, water system and the gradient
For restriction factor.
Embodiment one
This research was with Zhong County 2000, the land use data of 2010 and road, administrative center, water system, slope in 2005
Based on the data such as degree, with ArcGIS, IDRISI 17.0 software, the Land_use change of Zhong County the year two thousand twenty is predicted, specifically
Operating procedure be：
Step 1) data preparation
IDRISI SELVA 17.0 cannot Direct Recognition vector and raster file it is therefore necessary to ArcGIS by data
It is converted into the data form that software can identify.For three phase land use datas, data is passed through in ArcGIS workbox
Polygon to Raster Raster to ASCII, vector data is first converted into raster data, is then converted to ASCII
Text formatting.Dem data is processed in ArcGIS, by the surface analysis tool of raster data, extracts grade information, then
The gradient is converted into ASCII.Road, water system, administrative center can directly be located for vector file in IDRISI 17.0
Reason, realizes the conversion of data form.The Zhong County land use data of ASCII fromat is loaded in software I DRISI, specifically
Load step is File Import Software-Specific Formats ESRI Formats ARCRASTER, will
Data is converted into .rst form.Land use data, in conversion process, background has been also carried out assignment, in order to not allow background join
It is added to it is necessary to land use data is carried out reclassification (reclass) among follow-up calculating, will be whole for -9999 background value
It is set to 0.
Step 2) set up Markov model
Select Modeling Environmental/Simulation Models Markov, recall Markov module
Setting frame, load 2000 with land use data in 2005, step-length setting 5, be calculated 2000-2005 soil profit
With transition probability matrix, transfer face product matrix and all kinds of land used transition probability figure (Fig. 2).
Step 3) create conversion suitability atlas
What CA-Markov model was the most complicated is exactly to formulate its transformation rule, sets up conversion suitability atlas, with construction land
As a example, its transformation rule is formulated.Limit existing construction land in our current research to be converted, from the angle of ecological protection
Degree sets out restricted water land used to construction land conversion, and this two restrictive conditions are exactly simply to convert very much and do not convert,
Directly realized by classification in IDRISI, construction land and waters land used are limited and does not convert, remaining land used can convert, and is allusion quotation
The Boolean type distribution of type.Edit transformation rule first in Edit, the land use pattern not converted is entered as 0, the tax of conversion
It is worth for 1, the text editting is imported in Assign, generate waters constraints figure layer, construction land constraints in Edit
Figure layer.
(1) road factor standard
File Import--Software-Specific Formats ESRI Formats SHAPEIDR, loads
To in software, road path divisor is standardized process using Macro Modeler grand MBM, modeling process such as Fig. 3.Figure
In 3, the figure layer that initial module is is blank by file translations, but in blank figure layer, have the coordinate information of original figure layer, will
Road figure layer and blank grid figure layer are coupled together by lineras so as to have and land use data identical in 2000
Coordinate system, the function of distance is equivalent to does relief area in ArcGIS, road criterion figure layer is exactly the relief area figure of road,
Fuzzy module is to be standardized road rule layer, and the numerical value that the impact to suitability for the distance is converted into 0-255 is retouched
State, fuzzy module needs to be configured.In fuzzy module, provide four kinds of standardized functions, i.e. monotonic increase or successively decrease
S-shaped, J-shaped, linear function and self-defining function, choose various criterion function in conjunction with each factor variations demand.For
Road factor standard, uses S type decreasing function, and the value of wherein a point is set to 200, b point and is set to 1000, representative
The suitability highest that regioinvertions within 200 meters of road are construction land, 200 meters in addition suitability be gradually lowered,
1000 meters minimum with exterior domain suitability, goes to zero.After setting, click on run, software brings into operation, the road criterion obtaining
Layer, road factor standard figure layer.
(2) water system factor standard
Water system is imported in IDRISI 17.0, is modeled with the grand MBM of Macro Modeler, water system is
One face file, uses polyras module, this module is to realize vector when by water system with blank map overlay
Face file is overlapped with the blank figure layer with coordinate information, simultaneously for fuzzy module setting when, ecology of water land used
Should be protected by, therefore select monotonically increasing S type function, a point 100, b, c, d point 1000, the water system mark that module obtains after running
Standardization figure layer.
(3) administrative center's factor standard
The normalization step of administrative center's factor is identical with the step of road path divisor, slightly different above modeling, with sky
Pointras module is used when white raster map layer superposition, arrange parameter equally in fuzzy, click on operation and gone
Political affairs center criterion figure layer and administrative center's standardization figure layer.
(4) slope factor standardization
The gradient is raster data, defines coordinate system without to its raster file, only need to be converted into IDRISI 17.0 can know
Other rst file format, the gradient only need to be configured with fuzzy module, and using S type decreasing function, a, b, c value is set to 15, d
Point is set to ruling grade 64.
(5) construction land transition probability standardization
Obtain the transition probability image of land use pattern in 6 by Markov, due to the needs of software computing, needed
By the numerical value of the non-0-255 of transition probability image standardization of construction land, with other restriction factors unified standard.Construction land turns
Move probabilistic standardization and directly use fuzzy module arithmetic, you can obtain standardization figure layer.
For road, water system, administrative center, the gradient, this 5 factors of construction land transition probability determine it using AHP method
Weight, is had the function of calculating weight in IDRISI 17.0, is achieved by Weight module in this research.Software is carried out
It is calculated the weights figure of 5 factors, draw path divisor, administrative center's factor, slope factor, the water system factor, build
The weight of land used transition probability matrix is respectively：0.3804,0.1468,0.3120,0.1032,0.0575, also calculate in result
Go out consistency ration (Consistency ratio) abbreviation CR, only work as CR<When 0.1, result passes through inspection, model result
Middle CR=0.08, model judges Consistency is acceptable, and result passes through inspection.Build CA-Markov model
The Banan District Land_use change conversion suitability atlas needing passes through more rules evaluation model (MCE) in IDRISI17.0 software and generates,
MCE (multi-criteria evaluation) model is a kind of by evaluating the method with the multiple standards concentrating matching.2
Construction land the transfer suitable figure such as Fig. 4 of individual constraints and 5 restriction factor generations.
The same construction land of creation method of other land used suitability figures, simply restrictive condition is different.The transformation rule in arable land
It is not suitable for as arable land for beyond Along Traffic Trunk Lines 1500, most widely suited within 25 degree of the gradient, limit forest land to Farmland Conversion, forbid
Waters is converted into arable land.Waters transformation rule roadside is not suitable for as waters.Meadow, forest land, unused land other three
Limit in the transformation rule of class Land_use change, do not done other restriction and require.With reference to the method for construction land suitability figure,
Generate arable land, waters, meadow, forest land, the suitability figure of unused land.By the collection editor in IDRISI 17.0
Colletion Editor, the suitability figure of all kinds of lands used is synthesized one group of suitability atlas.Comprise every in raster map layer
Individual pixel, on form, is converted to suitability image set by the .rst form that land use pattern converts suitability image
.rgf form.
Step 4) proof-tested in model precision
Recall CA-Markov module in software, based on the land use data of 2005, suitability atlas is made
For transformation rule, predict the Land_use change area of 2010, transfer step-length is 5, obtains the land-use map of 2010 of prediction.
Using the CrossTab module in IDRISI software, simulation drawing and land-use map are overlapped analyzing, by analyzing final obtaining
Comprehensive Kappa coefficient to simulation is 0.9588, the high precision of model, and credibility meets Research Requirements.
Step 5) prediction
With above-mentioned model, step-length is set to the Land_use change situation of 15 prediction Zhong County the year two thousand twenties, predicts the outcome as figure
5.
Finally illustrate, preferred embodiment above only in order to technical scheme to be described and unrestricted, although logical
Cross above preferred embodiment the present invention to be described in detail, it is to be understood by those skilled in the art that can be
In form and various changes are made to it, without departing from claims of the present invention limited range in details.
Claims (3)
1. a kind of Land_use change change in time and space analogy method based on CA-Markov model it is characterised in that：Walk including following
Suddenly：
S1. reclassification is carried out to land use data；
S2. Markov model, Calculation and Study regional land use transition probability matrix and transfer face product matrix are set up；
S3. every class land used conversion suitability figure, synthesis Land_use change transfer suitability atlas are built；
S4. utilize suitability atlas and land use data, predict existing certain year Land_use change area；
S5. predict following land use data.
2. a kind of Land_use change change in time and space analogy method based on CA-Markov model according to claim 1, it is special
Levy and be：Also include before step S1：Vector data is first converted into raster data, is then converted to ASCII text formatting, passes through
The surface analysis tool of raster data, extracts grade information, then the gradient is converted into ASCII.
3. a kind of Land_use change change in time and space analogy method based on CA-Markov model according to claim 1, it is special
Levy and be：In step s3, with waters and construction land as constraints, road, administrative center, water system and the gradient be limit because
Son.
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Cited By (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN107194504A (en) * | 2017-05-09 | 2017-09-22 | 云南师范大学 | Forecasting Methodology, the device and system of land use state |
| CN110390129A (en) * | 2019-06-11 | 2019-10-29 | 同济大学 | The quantitative evaluation method of land use strategies validity based on GeoSOS-FLUS |
| CN110580539A (en) * | 2018-06-11 | 2019-12-17 | 深圳市数字城市工程研究中心 | Method and system for feeding back land utilization change based on land space-time model |
| CN114818547A (en) * | 2022-06-10 | 2022-07-29 | 重庆地质矿产研究院 | Shallow landslide susceptibility assessment method based on data model |
-
2016
- 2016-10-21 CN CN201610919491.9A patent/CN106485017A/en active Pending
Non-Patent Citations (2)
| Title |
|---|
| OMEGA: "IDRISI CA-Markov模型做土地利用变化步骤", 《新浪博客》 * |
| RUBYSDJN: "IDRISI 中CA-Markov操作步骤", 《豆丁网》 * |
Cited By (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN107194504A (en) * | 2017-05-09 | 2017-09-22 | 云南师范大学 | Forecasting Methodology, the device and system of land use state |
| CN110580539A (en) * | 2018-06-11 | 2019-12-17 | 深圳市数字城市工程研究中心 | Method and system for feeding back land utilization change based on land space-time model |
| CN110580539B (en) * | 2018-06-11 | 2021-07-30 | 深圳市数字城市工程研究中心 | Method and system for feeding back land utilization change based on land space-time model |
| CN110390129A (en) * | 2019-06-11 | 2019-10-29 | 同济大学 | The quantitative evaluation method of land use strategies validity based on GeoSOS-FLUS |
| CN114818547A (en) * | 2022-06-10 | 2022-07-29 | 重庆地质矿产研究院 | Shallow landslide susceptibility assessment method based on data model |
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Application publication date: 20170308 |