CN106484966B - A kind of urban track traffic emergency event dynamic effects range and strength determining method - Google Patents
A kind of urban track traffic emergency event dynamic effects range and strength determining method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention discloses a kind of urban track traffic emergency event dynamic effects range and strength determining method, this method comprises: determining the upper limit threshold and lower threshold of the whole day gradation degree normal fluctuation of statistical indicator；The statistical indicator at each station and section under emergency event is calculated；The gradation degree statistical indicator in station each under emergency event and section is compared with the upper limit threshold of corresponding period and lower threshold respectively, determines the station and section influenced by emergency event；Dynamic calculates emergency event to the influence intensity at the station influenced by emergency event and section.The present invention can be according to indexs such as the amount of entering the station dynamically being calculated, outbound amount, transfer amount, the section volumes of the flow of passengers, the dynamic monitoring for realizing on current emergency event coverage and influencing intensity, to provide technical support and decision-making foundation for urban track traffic operating administration emergency disposal, emergency event dynamic monitoring.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to urban track traffic sudden incidents report and detection fields.More particularly, to a kind of city
City's rail traffic emergency event dynamic effects range and strength determining method.
Background technique
Traffic Systems include City Rail Transit System, City road traffic system, city bargeline, city boat
The contents such as empty transportation system, wherein City Rail Transit System and other traffic systems have bigger difference, because it has opposite envelope
Close, the stream of people's highly dense the characteristics of, safety problem is the most important thing in daily operation always.Its reason is: on the one hand
As the continuous growth of operating mileage, line load constantly increase, large passenger flow is impacted etc., (such as passenger jumps onto the tracks, equipment for emergency event
Failure, signal fault, car door failure, vehicle trouble, cab signal failure, switch breakdown etc.) take place frequently have become it is a kind of it is new often
State；On the other hand with urban rail transit construction, rail network structure becomes increasingly complex, and each route degree of association is higher and higher, and happen suddenly thing
Once occurring chain reaction trend will be presented in rail network in part.So being dynamically determined emergency event in track traffic network
In coverage and intensity, it can be achieved that emergency event On-Line Dynamic Monitoring, facilitate operation department and formulate and take in time to answer
Anxious disposal method, such as passenger transportation management's scheme, organization of driving's scheme, bus transferring, intuitively show and feed back burst thing
The effect of part emergency disposal achievees the purpose that secondary disaster danger is preferably minimized by rapid evacuation passenger, greatly expansion city
The means of rail traffic administrative department emergency event on-line monitoring and emergency disposal.
However, networking operation is so that the passenger flow travel behaviour under emergency event is studied, passenger flow estimation problem becomes extremely
Complexity, while the monitoring of emergency event at present relies primarily on each station and is reported or station video monitoring system.In practice,
Monitoring data or have that retardance, not intuitive or coverage be limited, data are not easy greatly very much to store for a long time, and emergency disposal
Measure depends critically upon emergency preplan and experience, in today of urban mass transit network operation, passenger flow instant in road network
Ten thousand become, and this management is no longer satisfied the needs of routine safety management, operation with disposal options.
Currently, major city underground operator all establishes rail traffic sorting liquidation center (ACC), main task
It is that sorting (bus traveler assignment) is carried out to whole day passenger flow data after runing daily, can also be used to realize city under normal circumstances
City's track traffic for passenger flow is carried out in real time or is quasi real time monitored, but these are all based under the conditions of normal operation, for prominent
Passenger flow monitors under hair event, and the research of the especially monitorings such as emergency event coverage, intensity still belongs to blank.As Chinese invention is special
Sharp " a kind of freight allocating method for track transportation system " [notification number CN101763612A], to the whole day passenger flow under normal operation
Data are allocated, and carry out sorting between different subway operators to whole ticket fees on this basis.Such method is complete
It is that bus traveler assignment after emergency event occurs is not related to, and usually carry out after operation terminates based on normal operation situation, because
This is less able to achieve the purpose of the online passenger flow monitoring of the whole network after emergency event.Paper " is based on travel time matched ACC sorting mould
The research of type " [Yu Jiangbo, Wang Zhejun are ground based on research [J] urban track traffic of travel time matched ACC sorting model
Study carefully, 2013,16 (1): 43-45] analysis shows passenger's daily trip Annual distribution is regular under normal circumstances, thus can be with
Its trip route is determined the travel time according to the passenger of record at the end of whole day operation.Passenger goes out after occurring due to emergency event
Row and entirely different in the case of normal operation, the bus traveler assignment under emergency circumstances that can not be applied in this way, again
Since this method is to terminate the travel time Data Matching path according to record in whole day operation, but multiply when emergency event generation
Trip has not been completed in visitor, all to be used for the online dynamic passenger flow prison of emergency event without complete travel time data
It surveys.Paper " adjustment of urban railway transit train timetable and system are realized under emergency event " [Ma Hongnan, Wu Lijuan, Sun Huijun,
The adjustment of urban railway transit train timetable and system realize the Shandong [J] science, 2015,28 (5): 54- under equal emergency event
63] on-line operation figure method of adjustment under a set of urban track traffic emergency event is proposed, this method energy basis is currently taken
Emergency organization of driving's measure quickly generates running schedule under emergency event, and continuous according to the variation of emergency organization of driving's measure
Renewable time table, thus train operation situation in dynamic response current network.Paper " A dynamic schedule-based
model for congested transit networks》[Poon M H,Wong S C,Tong C O.A dynamic
schedule-based model for congested transit networks[J].Transportation
Research Part B Methodological, 2004,38 (4): 343-368] proposes the city rail based on timetable
Traffic dynamic distribution method, the side taken compared to previous studies and current major urban track traffic sorting liquidation center
The considerations of method, time-table is added in this method, while using the thinking of Used in Dynamic Traffic Assignment, and consider and stay phenomena such as multiplying,
It is more nearly true reaction passenger the behaviors such as enter the station in Rail Transit System, wait, changing to, is outbound, is convenient for city rail
Road traffic passenger flow is monitored.
Therefore background above and technology are based on, it is desirable to provide a kind of urban track traffic emergency event dynamic effects range with
Strength determining method realizes urban track traffic emergency event on-line monitoring.
Summary of the invention
It is an object of the present invention to provide a kind of urban track traffic emergency event dynamic effects range and intensity are true
Determine method, can be realized according to indexs such as the amount of entering the station dynamically being calculated, outbound amount, transfer amount, the section volumes of the flow of passengers to current prominent
Hair event coverage and the dynamic monitoring for influencing intensity, to for urban track traffic operating administration emergency disposal, dash forward
Hair event dynamic monitoring provides technical support and decision-making foundation.
In order to achieve the above objectives, the present invention adopts the following technical solutions:
A kind of urban track traffic emergency event dynamic effects range and strength determining method, this method include following step
It is rapid:
Step1: the fluctuation range of the statistical indicator based on station each under normal operation and section determines the complete of statistical indicator
The upper limit threshold and lower threshold of natural gift granularity；
Step2: the statistical indicator at each station and section under emergency event is calculated；
Step3: by the statistical indicator in station each under emergency event and section respectively with the upper limit threshold of corresponding period and under
Limit threshold value compares, and determines the station and section influenced by emergency event；
Step4: dynamic calculates influence intensity of the emergency event on the station and section that are influenced by emergency event.
Preferably, statistical indicator includes the amount of entering the station, outbound amount, transfer amount and the section volume of the flow of passengers.
Preferably, granularity is 15 minutes.
Preferably, the station influenced by emergency event is the vehicle that the amount of entering the station, outbound amount or transfer amount are influenced by emergency event
It stands；The section influenced by emergency event is the section that the section volume of the flow of passengers is influenced by emergency event.
Preferably, step Step1 further comprises:
Step11: the historical statistics index sample at each station and section under the day part normal operation for meeting sampling request is acquired
This；
Step12: the distribution situation of decision statistic index is examined by sample K-S and examines the different operating day same period
Statistical indicator whether Normal Distribution；
Step13: if so, calculating its probability interval by 3 σ criterion of normal distribution, and probability interval left end point is made
For lower threshold, using probability interval right endpoint as upper limit threshold；
Step14: if it is not, then further choosing the distribution function that sample is obeyed, and determine the upper limit according to corresponding distribution function
Threshold value and lower threshold；
Step15: if distribution function of the sample without obedience, empirically determined upper limit threshold and lower threshold.
Preferably, step Step2 further comprises:
Step21: based on on-line operation figure adjustment technology real-time update train schedule under emergency event；
Step22: passenger flow under emergency event is imitated according to the urban track traffic dynamic allocation method based on timetable
Really obtain corresponding statistical indicator.
Preferably, step Step3 further comprises:
Step31: judge any station or section statistical indicator whether the statistics under the normal operation of corresponding period
In the fluctuation range of index；
Step32: if so, judging that the station or the section period are not influenced by emergency event；If it is not, then sentencing
Break the station or the section period is influenced by emergency event；
Step33: it determines whether each station and section are influenced by emergency event by the period one by one, determines emergency event
Dynamic effects range.
Preferably, emergency event is on the influence intensity R at the station and section influenced by emergency eventijIncluding influencing intensity most
Small valueWith influence maximum of intensityIts calculating is as follows:
Wherein, i is a certain station or section, and j is a certain period, xijFor the i-th station of jth period/section statistical indicator,For the statistical indicator normal fluctuation range lower threshold,For the statistical indicator normal fluctuation range upper limit threshold.
Beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows:
1, urban track traffic emergency event dynamic effects range and strength determining method provided by the invention, by will just
The upper lower threshold value of the statistical indicator normal fluctuation range of reason condition occurs to emulate to obtain based on emergency event passenger flow with emergency event
Dynamic indicator data be compared, Dynamic Recognition goes out the station and section that are influenced by emergency event, and further calculates prominent
Hair event achievees the purpose that emergency event On-Line Dynamic Monitoring to the influence intensity at station and section, to hand over for city rail
Logical operating administration emergency disposal, emergency event dynamic monitoring provide technical support and decision-making foundation.
2, urban track traffic emergency event dynamic effects range and strength determining method provided by the invention, principle letter
It is single, it is easy to accomplish, convenient for integrating, it can greatly expand urban track traffic emergency event monitoring means.
Detailed description of the invention
Specific embodiments of the present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawing.
Fig. 1 shows urban track traffic emergency event dynamic effects range and strength determining method flow chart.
Fig. 2 shows the Ba Bao Mountain station 14 day working day 8:00-8:15 amount of entering the station curve graphs.
Fig. 3 shows single sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov inspection result in embodiment.
Fig. 4 shows the Ba Bao Mountain station interior timesharing amount of entering the station bound threshold curve for a period of time.
The amount of entering the station when Fig. 5 shows 2 months 19 bus in Ba Bao Mountain station.
Fig. 6 shows the amount of entering the station curve graph on the day of the Ba Bao Mountain station whole day amount of entering the station bound threshold value and emergency event.
The amount of entering the station is influenced result by emergency event when Fig. 7 shows 2 months 19 bus in Ba Bao Mountain station.
Specific embodiment
In order to illustrate more clearly of the present invention, the present invention is done further below with reference to preferred embodiments and drawings
It is bright.Similar component is indicated in attached drawing with identical appended drawing reference.It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that institute is specific below
The content of description is illustrative and be not restrictive, and should not be limited the scope of the invention with this.
Urban track traffic emergency event dynamic effects range and strength determining method provided by the invention, by will be normal
The statistical indicator of situation is tested analysis, determines the normal fluctuation range of different periods corresponding index under the conditions of normal operation
Upper lower threshold value.When emergency event occurs, based on the dynamic indicator data that emergency event passenger flow emulates, and and normal fluctuation
The threshold value comparison up and down of range, and then Dynamic Recognition goes out the station and section influenced by emergency event, further calculates out its shadow
Ring intensity.By the way that threshold value is rationally arranged, effectively distinguish after emergency event occurs which changes is normal fluctuation to statistical indicator,
Which is caused by being influenced by emergency event, to achieve the purpose that emergency event On-Line Dynamic Monitoring, to be urban track traffic
Operating administration emergency disposal, emergency event dynamic monitoring provide technical support and decision-making foundation.
Most common four statistical indicators of urban track traffic operating administration are selected in the present invention, are entered the station respectively
Amount, outbound amount, transfer amount, the section volume of the flow of passengers.According to research it is found that under the conditions of normal operation, each vehicle of urban track traffic
It stands and statistical indicator of the section in the not same date same period is more stable, normal fluctuation in a certain range.
As shown in Figure 1, a kind of urban track traffic emergency event dynamic effects range and strength determining method, this method packet
Include following steps:
Step1: the fluctuation range of the statistical indicator based on station each under normal operation and section determines the complete of statistical indicator
The upper limit threshold and lower threshold of natural gift granularity.In the present invention, statistical indicator includes the amount of entering the station, outbound amount, transfer amount and section
The volume of the flow of passengers, and the whole day time was divided with 15 minutes for a period.It should be noted that the vehicle influenced by emergency event
Standing is the station that the amount of entering the station, outbound amount or transfer amount are influenced by emergency event, and the section influenced by emergency event is by burst thing
The section of the part influence section volume of the flow of passengers.Specific step is as follows:
(1), the historical statistics index sample at each station and section under the day part normal operation for meeting sampling request is acquired；
(2), the distribution situation of decision statistic index is examined by sample K-S and examines the system of different operating day same period
Count index whether Normal Distribution；
(3), if so, calculating its probability interval by 3 σ criterion of normal distribution, and using probability interval left end point as
Lower threshold, using probability interval right endpoint as upper limit threshold；
(4), if it is not, then further choosing the distribution function that sample is obeyed, and upper limit threshold is determined according to corresponding distribution function
Value and lower threshold；
(5) if, distribution function of the sample without obedience, empirically determined upper limit threshold and lower threshold.
Step2: the statistical indicator at each station and section under emergency event is calculated.Specific step is as follows:
(1), based on on-line operation figure adjustment technology real-time update train schedule under emergency event；
(2), passenger flow under emergency event is emulated according to the urban track traffic dynamic allocation method based on timetable
Obtain corresponding statistical indicator.
Step3: by the statistical indicator in station each under emergency event and section respectively with the upper limit threshold of corresponding period and under
Limit threshold value compares, and determines the station and section influenced by emergency event.Specific step is as follows:
(1), judge whether the statistics under the normal operation of corresponding period refers to for the statistical indicator in any station or section
In target fluctuation range；
(2), if so, judging that the station or the section period are not influenced by emergency event；If it is not, then judgement should
Station or the section period are influenced by emergency event；
(3), it determines whether each station and section are influenced by emergency event by the period one by one, determines emergency event dynamic
Coverage.
Step4: dynamic calculates influence intensity of the emergency event on the station and section that are influenced by emergency event.Specifically,
Emergency event is on the influence intensity R at the station and section influenced by emergency eventijIncluding influencing minimum of intensityWith influence
Maximum of intensityIts calculating is as follows:
Wherein, i is a certain station or section, and j is a certain period, xijFor the i-th station of jth period/section statistical indicator,For the statistical indicator normal fluctuation range lower threshold,For the statistical indicator normal fluctuation range upper limit threshold.
The following will be described with reference to a specific embodiment
It is analyzed by taking Beijing's Rail Transit System as an example, in view of Beijing Metro system operation station quantity up to 334
Seat selects this index of the working day individual specimen amount of entering the station to be verified in order to illustrate the feasibility of method, remaining station, its
His index is similar, repeats no more.
1, the fluctuation range of the statistical indicator based on station each under normal operation and section determines the whole day point of statistical indicator
The upper limit threshold and lower threshold of granularity.
In the present embodiment, (2 months 2014 7 days, 2 months 19 17 days-March 14 days normal operation working days of Ba Bao Mountain station is chosen
Day because except occurring signal fault) the amount of entering the station this statistical indicator analyzed as sample.As shown in Fig. 2, by round-the-clock
Between divided with 15 minutes for a period, choose and be illustrated for the amount of entering the station of 8:00-8:15.It should be noted that
Remaining statistical indicator repeats no more as the determination method of remaining period.
Examined by sample K-S to determine the distribution situation of the amount of entering the station, examine the different operating day same period (8:00-8:
15) amount of entering the station whether Normal Distribution.Taking significance is 0.05, and the 14 day working day 8:00-8:15 in Ba Bao Mountain station enters the station
It is as shown in Figure 3 to measure inspection result.Known to the progressive conspicuousness examined be 0.756, be much larger than significance 0.05, therefore can be with
Think that the amount of the entering the station Normal Distribution of sample, remaining index find equal Normal Distribution by verifying.
By knowledge of statistics it is found that if the normal distribution of x~N (μ, σ), then meet:
P {+3 σ of μ -3 σ < x < μ }=99.74%
Therefore, selecting bound threshold value is [1338.7479,1915.6807], it is ensured that any one of under normal operation
The amount of entering the station of working day Ba Bao Mountain station 8:00-8:15 has 99.74% probability in this threshold range, i.e. its normal fluctuation model
It encloses.If in urban rail transit net occur emergency event after the station amount of entering the station not in threshold range, it may be considered that the station by
The amount of entering the station is influenced to emergency event impact.According to the positive ordinary wave of the method 15 minutes granularities of available Ba Bao Mountain station whole day
Dynamic threshold condition, Fig. 4 is that Ba Bao Mountain station terminates the timesharing amount of entering the station bound threshold curve to morning peak since operation, with such
Push away the bound threshold value that can determine remaining index (outbound amount, transfer amount, the section volume of the flow of passengers), whole period normal fluctuations.
2, the statistical indicator at each station and section under emergency event is calculated.
In the present embodiment, divide or so octagonal amusement park subway station signal fault at Beijing Metro 2014 2 months 19 days 7 30
This rises for emergency event.On 2 19th, 2014 7:27 to 8:03, Line 1 illiciumverum amusement park station station tube section signal fault, shadow
Sound ancient city station to Ba Bao Mountain station uplink and downlink change drives a vehicle by telephone blocking method, and during which to reduce the influence gone on a journey to passenger, part is arranged
Vehicle is taken turns back in princess's grave station, the clear people in Wangfujing station.Failure causes 30 column of stopping transport altogether, and the clear people in midway turns back 5 column (princess's grave station
4 column, Wangfujing station 1 arrange), it is maximum to be delayed to 45 column of evening (wherein 5 points or more 42 column, 15 points of above 33 column, arrange for 30 points above 6)
Time is 33 minutes, is made a big impact to passenger's trip.
Available according to emulation, the Ba Bao Mountain station 8:00-8:15 amount of entering the station is 1049 person-times, to morning peak knot since operation
The beam timesharing amount of entering the station is shown in Fig. 5, remaining station/section, index it will also be appreciated that.
3, by the statistical indicator in station each under emergency event and section respectively with the upper limit threshold of corresponding period and lower limit threshold
Value compares, and determines the station and section influenced by emergency event.
On 2 19th, the 2014 8:00-8:15 amounts of entering the station in Ba Bao Mountain station are 1049 person-times, are not in threshold range
In [1338.7479,1915.6807], therefore the station period amount of entering the station is played emergency event by this and is influenced, and so on, it can
To obtain terminating timesharing threshold value and the same day amount of entering the station to morning peak since operation, as shown in fig. 6, remaining station/section, remaining
Index it will also be appreciated that.
4, dynamic calculates emergency event to the influence intensity at the station influenced by emergency event and section.
It is R that a certain a certain station period j/section i, which is influenced intensity by emergency event,ij, the period, the station amount of entering the station was (outbound
Amount, transfer amount, the section volume of the flow of passengers) use xijIt indicates.Due to the working day period amount of entering the station under normal circumstances (outbound amount, transfer amount,
The section volume of the flow of passengers) normal fluctuation bound threshold range is Therefore its amount of entering the station (outbound amount, transfer amount, section visitor
Flow) intensity is influenced by emergency event can be calculated in a certain range, which is denoted asHappen suddenly thing
Part influences minimum of intensity to the station amount of entering the stationWith maximum valueIt can be obtained by following formula:
It substitutes into and calculates it is found that on 2 19th, the 2014 8:00-8:15 amounts of entering the station in Ba Bao Mountain station are influenced intensity model by emergency event
Enclose for [0.2163,0.4523], and so on available terminate the station amount of the entering the station timesharing to morning peak since operation and influence
Intensity, as shown in fig. 7, remaining station/section, remaining index impacted intensity it will also be appreciated that.
Obviously, the above embodiment of the present invention be only to clearly illustrate example of the present invention, and not be pair
The restriction of embodiments of the present invention may be used also on the basis of the above description for those of ordinary skill in the art
To make other variations or changes in different ways, all embodiments can not be exhaustive here, it is all to belong to this hair
The obvious changes or variations that bright technical solution is extended out are still in the scope of protection of the present invention.
Claims (6)
1. a kind of urban track traffic emergency event dynamic effects range and strength determining method, which is characterized in that this method packet
Include following steps:
Step1: the fluctuation range of the statistical indicator based on station each under normal operation and section determines the whole day point of statistical indicator
The upper limit threshold and lower threshold of granularity, the step Step1 include:
Step11: the historical statistics index sample at each station and section under the day part normal operation for meeting sampling request is acquired；
Step12: the distribution situation of decision statistic index is examined by sample K-S and examines the system of different operating day same period
Count index whether Normal Distribution；
Step13: if so, calculating its probability interval by 3 σ criterion of normal distribution, and the probability interval left end point is made
For the lower threshold, using the probability interval right endpoint as the upper limit threshold；
Step14: if it is not, then further choosing the distribution function that sample is obeyed, and determine upper limit threshold according to corresponding distribution function
And lower threshold；
Step15: if distribution function of the sample without obedience, the empirically determined upper limit threshold and lower threshold；
Step2: the statistical indicator at each station and section under emergency event is calculated；
Step3: by the statistical indicator of station each under emergency event and section gradation degree respectively with the upper limit threshold of corresponding period and
Lower threshold compares, and determines the station and section influenced by emergency event；
Step4: dynamic calculates emergency event to the influence intensity at the station influenced by emergency event and section, the burst
Event is on the influence intensity R at the station influenced by emergency event and sectionijIncluding influencing minimum of intensityWith influence
Maximum of intensityIts calculating is as follows:
Wherein, i is a certain station or section, and j is a certain period, xijFor the i-th station of jth period/section statistical indicator,
For the statistical indicator normal fluctuation range lower threshold,For the statistical indicator normal fluctuation range upper limit threshold.
2. dynamic effects range according to claim 1 and strength determining method, which is characterized in that the statistical indicator packet
Include the amount of entering the station, outbound amount, transfer amount and the section volume of the flow of passengers.
3. dynamic effects range according to claim 1 and strength determining method, which is characterized in that the granularity is 15 points
Clock.
4. dynamic effects range according to claim 1 and strength determining method, which is characterized in that described by emergency event
The station of influence is the station that the amount of entering the station, outbound amount or transfer amount are influenced by emergency event；The area influenced by emergency event
Between be that the section of the section volume of the flow of passengers is influenced by emergency event.
5. dynamic effects range according to claim 1 and strength determining method, which is characterized in that the step Step2
Include:
Step21: based on on-line operation figure adjustment technology real-time update train schedule under emergency event；
Step22: passenger flow under emergency event emulate according to the urban track traffic dynamic allocation method based on timetable
To corresponding statistical indicator.
6. dynamic effects range according to claim 1 and strength determining method, which is characterized in that the step Step3
Include:
Step31: judge any station or section statistical indicator whether the statistical indicator under the normal operation of corresponding period
Fluctuation range in；
Step32: if so, judging that the station or the section period are not influenced by emergency event；If it is not, then judgement should
Station or the section period are influenced by emergency event；
Step33: it determines whether each station and section are influenced by emergency event by the period one by one, determines emergency event dynamic
Coverage.
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