CN106484966A - A kind of urban track traffic accident dynamic effect scope and strength determining method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The present invention discloses a kind of urban track traffic accident dynamic effect scope and strength determining method, and the method includes：Determine the upper limit threshold of whole day gradation degree normal fluctuation and the lower threshold of statistical indicator；It is calculated each station and interval statistical indicator under accident；Station each under accident and interval gradation degree statistical indicator are compared with the upper limit threshold of corresponding period and lower threshold respectively, determines the station and interval being affected by accident；Dynamic calculation accident is on the described station being affected by accident and interval impact intensity.The indexs such as the amount of entering the station that the present invention can obtain according to dynamic calculation, outbound amount, transfer amount, the section volume of the flow of passengers, realize the dynamic monitoring on current accident coverage and impact intensity, thus providing technical support and decision-making foundation for urban track traffic operating administration emergency disposal, accident dynamic monitoring.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to urban track traffic sudden incidents report and detection field.More particularly, to a kind of city
City's track traffic accident dynamic effect scope and strength determining method.
Background technology
Traffic Systems include City Rail Transit System, City road traffic system, city bargeline, city boat
The contents such as empty transportation system, wherein, City Rail Transit System and other traffic systems have bigger difference, because it has envelope relatively
Close, the feature of artificial abortion's highly dense, its safety problem is the most important thing in daily operation all the time.Its reason is：On the one hand
Constantly increase with the operation continuous growth of mileage, line load, large passenger flow impact etc., accident (jump onto the tracks as passenger, equipment
Fault, signal fault, car door fault, vehicle trouble, cab signal fault, switch breakdown etc.) take place frequently that to have become as one kind newly normal
State；On the other hand with urban rail transit construction, rail network structure becomes increasingly complex, each bar circuit degree of association more and more higher, and happen suddenly thing
Part, once occurring, will assume chain reaction trend by rail gauze.So, it is dynamically determined accident in rail traffic network
In coverage and intensity, achievable accident On-Line Dynamic Monitoring, contribute to operation department formulate in time and take should
Anxious disposal method, such as passenger transportation management's scheme, organization of driving's scheme, buses transferring etc., intuitively show and feed back burst thing
The effect of part emergency disposal, reaches the purpose that secondary disaster danger is preferably minimized by rapid evacuation passenger, greatly expands city
Track traffic administration section accident on-line monitoring and the means of emergency disposal.
However, networking operation makes, and the passenger flow travel behaviour under accident is studied, passenger flow estimation problem becomes extremely
Complexity, the monitoring of accident at present simultaneously relies primarily on each station and is reported or station video monitoring system.In practice,
Or Monitoring Data has retardance, directly perceived, or coverage is limited, data is difficult longer-term storage greatly very much, and emergency disposal
Measure depends critically upon emergency preplan and experience, in today of urban mass transit networkization operation, passenger flow instant in road network
Ten thousand changes, this management and disposal options can not meet routine safety management, the needs of operation.
At present, each big city metro operation company all establishes track traffic sorting liquidation center (ACC), its main task
It is sorting (bus traveler assignment) to be carried out to whole day passenger flow data it is also possible to be used for realizing city under normal circumstances after daily operation terminates
City's track traffic for passenger flow carries out monitoring in real time or quasi real time, but under the conditions of these are all based on normal operation, for prominent
Passenger flow monitoring under the event of sending out, the research of the particularly monitoring such as accident coverage, intensity still belongs to blank.As Chinese invention is special
Profit《A kind of freight allocating method for track transportation system》[notification number is CN101763612A], to the whole day passenger flow under normal operation
Data is allocated, and carries out sorting to whole ticket fees between different subway operators on this basis.This kind of method is complete
It is based on normal operation situation, is not related to bus traveler assignment after accident occurs, and be usually to carry out after operation terminates, because
This less enables the purpose of the whole network online passenger flow monitoring after accident.Paper《ACC sorting mould based on travel time coupling
The research of type》[Yu Jiangbo, Wang Zhejun. the research [J] of the ACC sorting model based on travel time coupling. urban track traffic is ground
Study carefully, 2013,16 (1):43-45] passenger's go off daily Annual distribution is regular to analysis shows under normal circumstances, thus permissible
At the end of whole day operation, its trip route is judged the travel time according to the passenger of record.After being occurred due to accident, passenger goes out
Entirely different in the case of row and normal operation, in this way nor be applied to bus traveler assignment under emergency circumstances, and
Because this method is to terminate according to the travel time Data Matching path recording in whole day operation, but take advantage of when accident occurs
Visitor has not been completed trip, does not have a complete travel time data, all can not be used for accident dynamic passenger flow prison online
Survey.Paper《Under accident, the adjustment of urban railway transit train timetable and system are realized》[Ma Hongnan, Wu Lijuan, Sun Huijun,
Deng. under accident, the adjustment of urban railway transit train timetable and system realize [J]. Shandong science, 2015,28 (5):54-
63] propose on-line operation figure method of adjustment under a set of urban track traffic accident, the method energy basis is currently taken
The measure of emergent organization of driving quickly generates accident table of the lower time of running, and continuous according to the change of emergent organization of driving measure
Renewable time table, thus train operation situation in dynamic response current network.Paper《A dynamic schedule-based
model for congested transit networks》[Poon M H,Wong S C,Tong C O.A dynamic
schedule-based model for congested transit networks[J].Transportation
Research Part B Methodological,2004,38(4):343 368] propose the city rail based on timetable
Traffic dynamic distribution method, compared to previous studies and the side that each big city track traffic sorting liquidation center is taken at present
Method, the method adds the consideration of time-table, adopts the thinking of Used in Dynamic Traffic Assignment simultaneously, and considers to stay and the phenomenon such as take advantage of,
Be more nearly the real reaction in-orbit pipeline transportation system of passenger enter the station, wait, changing to, the behavior such as outbound, be convenient for city rail
Road traffic passenger flow is monitored.
Therefore be based on background above and technology, it is desirable to provide a kind of urban track traffic accident dynamic effect scope with
Strength determining method, realizes urban track traffic accident on-line monitoring.
Content of the invention
It is an object of the present invention to provide a kind of urban track traffic accident dynamic effect scope is true with intensity
Determine method, the index such as the amount of entering the station that can be obtained according to dynamic calculation, outbound amount, transfer amount, section volume of the flow of passengers, realize to working as prolapse
Send out the dynamic monitoring of event coverage and impact intensity, thus for urban track traffic operating administration emergency disposal, dashing forward
Sending out event dynamic monitoring provides technical support and decision-making foundation.
For reaching above-mentioned purpose, the present invention adopts following technical proposals：
A kind of urban track traffic accident dynamic effect scope and strength determining method, the method includes following step
Suddenly：
Step1：Based on the fluctuation range at station each under normal operation and interval statistical indicator, determine the complete of statistical indicator
The upper limit threshold of natural gift granularity and lower threshold；
Step2：It is calculated each station and interval statistical indicator under accident；
Step3：By station each under accident and interval statistical indicator respectively with the upper limit threshold of corresponding period and under
Limit threshold value compares, and determines the station and interval being affected by accident；
Step4：Dynamic calculation accident is on the station being affected by accident and interval impact intensity.
Preferably, statistical indicator includes the amount of entering the station, outbound amount, transfer amount and the section volume of the flow of passengers.
Preferably, granularity is 15 minutes.
Preferably, the station being affected by accident is to be affected, by accident, the car that the amount of entering the station, outbound amount or transfer are measured
Stand；The interval being affected by accident is the interval being affected the section volume of the flow of passengers by accident.
Preferably, step Step1 further includes：
Step11：Collection meets each station and interval historical statistics index sample under the day part normal operation of sampling request
This；
Step12：The distribution situation of decision statistic index is checked by sample K-S and checks the different operating day same period
Statistical indicator whether Normal Distribution；
Step13：If so, then its probability interval is calculated by normal distribution 3 σ criterion, and probability interval left end point is made
For lower threshold, using probability interval right endpoint as upper limit threshold；
Step14：If it is not, then choosing the distribution function that sample is obeyed further, and the upper limit is determined according to corresponding distribution function
Threshold value and lower threshold；
Step15：If the distribution function of sample no obedience, empirically determined upper limit threshold and lower threshold.
Preferably, step Step2 further includes：
Step21：Based on on-line operation figure adjustment technology real-time update train schedule under accident；
Step22：According to the urban track traffic dynamic allocation method based on timetable, passenger flow under accident is imitated
Really obtain corresponding statistical indicator.
Preferably, step Step3 further includes：
Step31：Judge the statistical indicator whether statistics under the normal operation of corresponding time period in arbitrary station or interval
In the fluctuation range of index；
Step32：If so, then judge that this station or this time period interval are not affected by accident；If it is not, then sentencing
This station disconnected or this time period interval are affected by accident；
Step33：Determine whether each station and interval are affected by accident, determine accident by the time period one by one
Dynamic effect scope.
Preferably, accident is on the station being affected by accident and interval impact intensity RijIncluding impact intensity
Little valueWith impact maximum of intensityIt is calculated as follows：
Wherein, i is a certain station or interval, and j is a certain period, xijFor the statistical indicator in jth period i-th station/interval,For this statistical indicator normal fluctuation range lower threshold,For this statistical indicator normal fluctuation range upper limit threshold.
Beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows：
1st, the present invention provides urban track traffic accident dynamic effect scope and strength determining method, by will just
The upper lower threshold value of the statistical indicator normal fluctuation range of reason condition and accident occur to obtain based on the emulation of accident passenger flow
Dynamic indicator data be compared, Dynamic Recognition goes out the station being affected by accident and interval, and calculates prominent further
The event of sending out, to station and interval impact intensity, reaches the purpose of accident On-Line Dynamic Monitoring, thus handing over for city rail
Logical operating administration emergency disposal, accident dynamic monitoring provide technical support and decision-making foundation.
2nd, the present invention provides urban track traffic accident dynamic effect scope and strength determining method, principle letter
It is single, it is easy to accomplish, it is easy to integrated, can greatly expand urban track traffic accident monitoring meanss.
Brief description
Below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings the specific embodiment of the present invention is described in further detail.
Fig. 1 illustrates urban track traffic accident dynamic effect scope and strength determining method flow chart.
Fig. 2 illustrates 14 day working day 8 of Ba Bao Mountain station:00-8:15 amount of entering the station curve charts.
Fig. 3 illustrates single sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov assay in embodiment.
Fig. 4 illustrates the Ba Bao Mountain station interior timesharing amount of entering the station bound threshold curve for a period of time.
Fig. 5 illustrates the amount of entering the station during 2 months 19 bus in Ba Bao Mountain station.
Fig. 6 illustrates the Ba Bao Mountain station whole day amount of entering the station bound threshold value and the accident same day amount of entering the station curve chart.
Fig. 7 illustrates that during 2 months 19 bus in Ba Bao Mountain station, the amount of entering the station is affected result by accident.
Specific embodiment
In order to be illustrated more clearly that the present invention, with reference to preferred embodiments and drawings, the present invention is done further
Bright.In accompanying drawing, similar part is indicated with identical reference.It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that institute is concrete below
The content of description is illustrative and be not restrictive, and should not be limited the scope of the invention with this.
Urban track traffic accident dynamic effect scope and strength determining method that the present invention provides, by by normally
The statistical indicator of situation is tested analysis, determines the normal fluctuation range of different periods corresponding index under the conditions of normal operation
Upper lower threshold value.When accident occurs, the dynamic indicator data obtaining is emulated based on accident passenger flow, and and normal fluctuation
The upper lower threshold value of scope compares, and then Dynamic Recognition goes out the station being affected by accident and interval, calculates its shadow further
Ring intensity.By reasonable setting threshold value, after effectively distinguishing accident generation, which statistical indicator changes is normal fluctuation,
Which is affected to lead to by accident, reaches the purpose of accident On-Line Dynamic Monitoring, thus being urban track traffic
Operating administration emergency disposal, accident dynamic monitoring provide technical support and decision-making foundation.
Select four the most frequently used statistical indicators of urban track traffic operating administration in the present invention, enter the station respectively
Amount, outbound amount, transfer amount, the section volume of the flow of passengers.Understood according to research, under the conditions of normal operation, each car of urban track traffic
It is more stable for standing with the interval statistical indicator in the not same date same period, normal fluctuation within the specific limits.
As shown in figure 1, a kind of urban track traffic accident dynamic effect scope and strength determining method, the method bag
Include following steps：
Step1：Based on the fluctuation range at station each under normal operation and interval statistical indicator, determine the complete of statistical indicator
The upper limit threshold of natural gift granularity and lower threshold.In the present invention, statistical indicator includes the amount of entering the station, outbound amount, transfer amount and section
The volume of the flow of passengers, and the whole day time is divided with 15 minutes for a time period.It should be noted that the car being affected by accident
Station is to be affected, by accident, the station that the amount of entering the station, outbound amount or transfer are measured, and the interval being affected by accident is by burst thing
Part affects the interval of the section volume of the flow of passengers.Comprise the following steps that：
(1), collection meets the historical statistics index sample in each station and interval under the day part normal operation of sampling request；
(2), the distribution situation of decision statistic index is checked by sample K-S and check the system of different operating day same period
Meter index whether Normal Distribution；
(3), if so, then its probability interval is calculated by normal distribution 3 σ criterion, and using probability interval left end point as
Lower threshold, using probability interval right endpoint as upper limit threshold；
(4) if it is not, then choosing the distribution function that sample is obeyed further, and upper limit threshold is determined according to corresponding distribution function
Value and lower threshold；
(5) if the distribution function of sample no obedience, empirically determined upper limit threshold and lower threshold.
Step2：It is calculated each station and interval statistical indicator under accident.Comprise the following steps that：
(1), it is based on on-line operation figure adjustment technology real-time update train schedule under accident；
(2), basis is emulated to passenger flow under accident based on the urban track traffic dynamic allocation method of timetable
Obtain corresponding statistical indicator.
Step3：By station each under accident and interval statistical indicator respectively with the upper limit threshold of corresponding period and under
Limit threshold value compares, and determines the station and interval being affected by accident.Comprise the following steps that：
(1), judge whether the statistics under the normal operation of corresponding time period refers to for the statistical indicator in arbitrary station or interval
In target fluctuation range；
(2), if so, then judge that this station or this time period interval are not affected by accident；If it is not, then judging to be somebody's turn to do
Station or this time period interval are affected by accident；
(3), determine whether each station and interval are affected by accident by the time period one by one, determine that accident is dynamic
Coverage.
Step4：Dynamic calculation accident is on the station being affected by accident and interval impact intensity.Specifically,
Accident is on the station being affected by accident and interval impact intensity RijIncluding impact minimum of intensityWith impact
Maximum of intensityIt is calculated as follows：
Wherein, i is a certain station or interval, and j is a certain period, xijFor the statistical indicator in jth period i-th station/interval,For this statistical indicator normal fluctuation range lower threshold,For this statistical indicator normal fluctuation range upper limit threshold.
Illustrate with reference to a specific embodiment
Taking Beijing's Rail Transit System as a example it is analyzed, in view of Beijing Metro system operation station quantity has reached 334
Seat, for the feasibility of illustration method, selects this index of the individual specimen amount of entering the station on working day to be verified, remaining station, its
He is similar to index, repeats no more.
1st, the fluctuation range based on station each under normal operation and the statistical indicator in interval, determines that the whole day of statistical indicator is divided
The upper limit threshold of granularity and lower threshold.
In the present embodiment, choose Ba Bao Mountain station 14 days normal operation working day (2 months 17-March 7 in 2014,2 months 19
Day because occur signal fault except) this statistical indicator of the amount of entering the station be analyzed as sample.As shown in Fig. 2 by round-the-clock
Between divided with 15 minutes for a time period, choose 8:00-8:Illustrate as a example 15 amount of entering the station.It should be noted that
Remaining statistical indicator is the same with the determination method of remaining period, repeats no more.
Check to judge the distribution situation of the amount of entering the station by sample K-S, check the different operating day same period (8:00-8:
15) amount of entering the station whether Normal Distribution.Significance level is taken to be 0.05,14 day working day 8 of Ba Bao Mountain station:00-8:15 enter the station
Amount assay is as shown in Figure 3.Understand that the progressive significance checked is 0.756, much larger than significance level 0.05, therefore permissible
Think the amount of the entering the station Normal Distribution of sample, remaining index is passed through checking and found equal Normal Distribution.
From knowledge of statistics, if the normal distribution of x～N (μ, σ), then meet：
P { μ -3 σ ＜ x ＜ μ+3 σ }=99.74%
Therefore, selected bound threshold value be [1338.7479,1915.6807] it is ensured that under normal operation any one
The Ba Bao Mountain on working day station 8:00-8:15 amount of entering the station has 99.74% probability in this threshold range, i.e. its normal fluctuation model
Enclose.If after there is accident in urban rail transit net, this station amount of entering the station is not in threshold range, it is considered that this station is subject to
Have influence on the amount of entering the station to accident impact.The positive ordinary wave of 15 minutes granularities of Ba Bao Mountain station whole day can be obtained according to methods described
Dynamic threshold condition, Fig. 4 starts to morning peak to terminate the timesharing amount of entering the station bound threshold curve from operation, with such for Ba Bao Mountain station
Push away and can determine remaining index (outbound amount, transfer amount, the section volume of the flow of passengers), the bound threshold value of whole period normal fluctuation.
2nd, it is calculated the statistical indicator in each station and interval under accident.
In the present embodiment, with 30 points about during Beijing Metro 2014 2 months 19 days 7 anistree amusement park subway station signal faults
As a example this plays accident.On 2 19th, 2014 7:27 to 8:03, Line 1 anise amusement park station station tube section signal fault, shadow
Ring ancient city station to Ba Bao Mountain station uplink and downlink and change by telephone blocking method driving, period is the impact reducing to passenger's trip, and part arranges
Car is taken and is turned back in princess's grave station, the clear people in Wangfujing station.Fault causes 30 row of stopping transport altogether, and the clear people in midway turns back 5 row (princess's grave station
4 row, Wangfujing station 1 arranges), to evening 45 row (wherein more than 5 points 42 row, more than 15 points 33 row, more than 30 points 6 row), maximum delay
Time is 33 minutes, and passenger's trip is made a big impact.
Available, the Ba Bao Mountain station 8 according to emulation:00-8:15 amounts of entering the station are 1049 person-times, start to morning peak to tie from operation
Bundle the timesharing amount of entering the station see Fig. 5, remaining station/interval, index it will also be appreciated that.
3rd, by the statistical indicator in station each under accident and interval upper limit threshold and the lower limit threshold with the corresponding period respectively
Value compares, and determines the station and interval being affected by accident.
Ba Bao Mountain station on 2 19th, 2,014 8:00-8:15 amounts of entering the station are 1049 person-times, in threshold range are not
In [1338.7479,1915.6807], therefore this period amount of entering the station of this station is played accident by this is affected, by that analogy, can
To obtain starting to morning peak to terminate timesharing threshold value and the same day amount of entering the station from operation, as shown in fig. 6, remaining station/interval, remaining
Index it will also be appreciated that.
4th, the impact intensity on the described station being affected by accident and interval for the dynamic calculation accident.
It is R that a certain station/interval i of a certain period j is affected intensity by accidentij, this station amount of the entering the station (outbound of this period
Amount, transfer amount, the section volume of the flow of passengers) use xijRepresent.Due to amount of entering the station on this under normal circumstances on working day period (outbound amount, transfer amount,
The section volume of the flow of passengers) normal fluctuation bound threshold range is Therefore its amount of entering the station (outbound amount, transfer amount, section visitor
Flow) affected intensity by accident and can be calculated within the specific limits, this scope is designated asBurst thing
Part is on this station amount of entering the station impact minimum of intensityWith maximumCan be obtained by following formula：
Substitute into calculate and understand, Ba Bao Mountain station on 2 19th, 2,014 8:00-8:15 amounts of entering the station are affected intensity model by accident
Enclose for [0.2163,0.4523], can obtain by that analogy starting to morning peak to terminate this station amount of entering the station timesharing impact from operation
Intensity, as shown in fig. 7, remaining station/interval, remaining index impacted intensity it will also be appreciated that.
Obviously, the above embodiment of the present invention is only intended to clearly illustrate example of the present invention, and is not right
The restriction of embodiments of the present invention, for those of ordinary skill in the field, also may be used on the basis of the above description
To make other changes in different forms, all of embodiment cannot be exhaustive here, every belong to this
Obvious change that bright technical scheme is extended out or change the row still in protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (8)
1. a kind of urban track traffic accident dynamic effect scope and strength determining method are it is characterised in that the method bag
Include following steps：
Step1：Based on the fluctuation range at station each under normal operation and interval statistical indicator, determine that the whole day of statistical indicator is divided
The upper limit threshold of granularity and lower threshold；
Step2：It is calculated each station and interval statistical indicator under accident；
Step3：By the statistical indicator of station each under accident and interval gradation degree respectively with the upper limit threshold of corresponding period and
Lower threshold compares, and determines the station and interval being affected by accident；
Step4：Dynamic calculation accident is on the described station being affected by accident and interval impact intensity.
2. dynamic effect scope according to claim 1 and strength determining method are it is characterised in that described statistical indicator bag
Include the amount of entering the station, outbound amount, transfer amount and the section volume of the flow of passengers.
3. dynamic effect scope according to claim 1 and strength determining method are it is characterised in that described granularity is 15 points
Clock.
4. dynamic effect scope according to claim 1 and strength determining method it is characterised in that described by accident
The station of impact is to be affected, by accident, the station that the amount of entering the station, outbound amount or transfer are measured；The described area being affected by accident
Between be the interval being affected the section volume of the flow of passengers by accident.
5. dynamic effect scope according to claim 1 and strength determining method are it is characterised in that described step Step1
Including：
Step11：Collection meets each station and interval historical statistics index sample under the day part normal operation of sampling request；
Step12：The distribution situation of decision statistic index is checked by sample K-S and checks the system of different operating day same period
Meter index whether Normal Distribution；
Step13：If so, then its probability interval is calculated by normal distribution 3 σ criterion, and described probability interval left end point is made
For described lower threshold, using described probability interval right endpoint as described upper limit threshold；
Step14：If it is not, then choosing the distribution function that sample is obeyed further, and upper limit threshold is determined according to corresponding distribution function
And lower threshold；
Step15：If the distribution function of sample no obedience, empirically determined described upper limit threshold and lower threshold.
6. dynamic effect scope according to claim 1 and strength determining method are it is characterised in that described step Step2
Including：
Step21：Based on on-line operation figure adjustment technology real-time update train schedule under accident；
Step22：According to the urban track traffic dynamic allocation method based on timetable, passenger flow under accident is carried out emulating
To corresponding statistical indicator.
7. dynamic effect scope according to claim 1 and strength determining method are it is characterised in that described step Step3
Including：
Step31：Judge the statistical indicator whether statistical indicator under the normal operation of corresponding time period in arbitrary station or interval
Fluctuation range in；
Step32：If so, then judge that this station or this time period interval are not affected by accident；If it is not, then judging to be somebody's turn to do
Station or this time period interval are affected by accident；
Step33：Determine whether each station and interval are affected by accident by the time period one by one, determine that accident is dynamic
Coverage.
8. dynamic effect scope according to claim 1 and strength determining method are it is characterised in that described accident pair
The described station being affected by accident and interval impact intensity RijIncluding impact minimum of intensityWith impact intensity
Big valueIt is calculated as follows：
Wherein, i is a certain station or interval, and j is a certain period, xijFor the statistical indicator in jth period i-th station/interval,
For this statistical indicator normal fluctuation range lower threshold,For this statistical indicator normal fluctuation range upper limit threshold.
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Cited By (9)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108281000A (en) * | 2018-02-05 | 2018-07-13 | 北京交通大学 | A kind of accident of data-driven is to Regional Road Network impact analysis system and method |
| CN108683656A (en) * | 2018-05-10 | 2018-10-19 | 中国铁路总公司 | The method for detecting man-in-the-middle attack in urban railway transit train control system |
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| CN112598177B (en) * | 2020-12-22 | 2023-10-24 | 北京市地铁运营有限公司 | Urban rail transit emergency online passenger flow prediction and simulation system |
| CN114312926A (en) * | 2021-12-03 | 2022-04-12 | 北京交通大学 | Method and system for optimizing operation adjustment scheme of urban rail transit train |
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