CN106447208A - Decision-making method for construction diversion scheme considering flow discharge control of upstream hydropower station - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention relates to construction diversion scheme decision-making technologies of hydraulic and hydroelectric engineering, and provides a decision-making method for a construction diversion scheme considering flow discharge control of an upstream hydropower station for tackling defects that effects of companies in the basin in overall management decision making are not considered in traditional technologies. The method comprises the following steps of a, selecting decision-making indexes of the construction diversion scheme considering flow discharge control of the upstream hydropower station and carrying out calculation and analysis; b, recommending construction diversion schemes by upstream and downstream hydropower stations; c, giving weight vectors to the indexes according to respective preferences and establishing respective scheme evaluation functions by the upstream and downstream hydropower stations; d, based on negotiation countermeasures and optimization theories, adopting a two-stage planning method for obtaining optimal solutions in the perfect condition; e, carrying out normalization of the decision-making index matrixes and the optimal solutions in the perfect condition of the upstream and downstream hydropower stations; and f, giving weight vectors to objects considering overall benefits of the basin according to experts in related fields, and adopting a mode recognition theory method to solve the optimal construction diversion scheme.

Description

The river diversion scheme during construction decision method that a kind of control of consideration upstream power station is let out

Technical field

The present invention relates to Construction for Hydroelectric Project diversion plan decision-making technic, more particularly to a kind of consideration upstream power station The river diversion scheme during construction decision method that control is let out.

Background technology

In recent years, with the continuous propulsion that many basin step power stations in southwest are built, such as Yalong river valley, great Du River valley, Drainage Area of Jinsha River etc., increasing construction of hydropower plant faces the control in the built power station in upstream and lets out impact.However, In this case, river diversion scheme during construction involves different Interest Main Bodies (i.e. upstream power station and downstream power station), different interests The information asymmetry of main body, value orientation, decision predisposition difference.The generating effect in power station itself is more paid attention in such as upstream power station Benefit, downstream power station is more paid attention to how reducing flood season water conservancy diversion flow.With the raising of water power Market competition degree, at coordination The interest relations of each side are managed, basin overall interests have been safeguarded, promoted basin coordinated development to become current step power station engineering Build the major issue for facing.

But, existing river diversion scheme during construction decision-making technic is mostly focused on and selects in the initial stage of construction diversion standard for building power station On, it is impossible to take into account interests and the preference in upstream power station, it is difficult to realize coordination and the overall efficiency of river basin development benefits of different parties Improve.

Content of the invention

The technical problem to be solved is：For be difficult in conventional art to take into account the interests in upstream power station with inclined The deficiency for existing well, proposes the river diversion scheme during construction decision method that a kind of control of consideration upstream power station is let out.

The technical solution adopted for the present invention to solve the technical problems is：

The river diversion scheme during construction decision method that a kind of control of consideration upstream power station is let out, comprises the following steps：

A. the decision index system of the river diversion scheme during construction that the control of consideration upstream power station is let out is chosen, and carries out calculating analysis；

B. recommend river diversion scheme during construction by upstream and downstream power station respectively according to respective interests；

C. each index weights vector being given by upstream and downstream power station according to itself preference, and sets up respective scheme evaluation Function；

D. based on bargain game and optimum theory, solved using two benches planing method, draw perfect condition optimal solution；

E. the decision index system matrix and perfect condition optimal solution in upstream and downstream power station is normalized；

F. the weight vectors of each target are given from basin overall interests according to association area expert, using pattern recognition Theoretical method solves optimum river diversion scheme during construction.

Used as optimizing further, in step a, the decision-making for choosing the river diversion scheme during construction that the control of consideration upstream power station is let out refers to Mark, concrete grammar includes：The flood season limit level in upstream power station and the combination of the diversion standards in downstream power station are chosen as water conservancy diversion Scheme collection；Upstream power station is represented with U, downstream power station is represented with D, if x₁,x₂,...,x_nFor determining that U, D both sides pay close attention to jointly Plan index.Decision index system is：The flooding risk of loss and expect generated energy of upstream power station, and the cofferdam in downstream power station applies Work intensity, training works investment, weir risk of loss desired value of bursting.Computational methods for specific targets are prior art, can join Examine Zhang Chao (2014)《River diversion scheme during construction decision model based on previous-next swimming power station bargaining weight》The calculating for providing in one text Method, is repeated no more here.

As optimizing further, in step b, upstream power station is represented with U, downstream power station is represented with D, if x₁, x₂,...,x_nFor the index that U, D both sides pay close attention to jointly.If U, D all recommend n alternative diversion plan, each side to basin company M Case all includes m index, and program decisions index set is respectively U_n=(u_ij)_n×mAnd D_n=(d_ij)_n×m, wherein：u_ij、d_ijRespectively J-th desired value of i-th diversion plan that U, D recommend, wherein i=1,2 ..., m；J=1,2 ..., n.

As optimizing further, in step c, described by upstream and downstream power station according to number one and each finger of preference imparting Mark weight vectors, and set up the concrete grammar of respective scheme evaluation function and include：If U and D gives the weight of each decision index system Vector is respectively：μ=(μ₁,μ₂,…,μ_m)^T, γ=(γ₁,γ₂,…,γ_m)^T.

The scheme evaluation function of construction U, D, for profit evaluation model index, has：

For cost type index, have：

The schemes synthesis evaluation function for obtaining U and D is respectively：

As optimizing further, in step d, based on Bargaining Game Theory and optimum theory method, planned using two benches Method is solved, and to take into account, upstream and downstream power station common interest is balanced and overall interests maximum turns to principle, the effectiveness of first stage Compromise programming model is：

Upstream and downstream power station both sides are promoted to improve overall efficiency further, the marginal utility plan model of second stage is：

Planned by two benches, the information for providing by both party is obtained the target-like of both sides' all acceptable ideal schemes State, i.e. ideal solution are θ=(θ₁,θ₂,…,θ_m)^T.

Used as optimizing further, in step e, the index matrix first to U, D and ideal solution θ are normalized, its InWithThen Profit evaluation model target, normalization formula is：

Cost type target, normalization formula is：

As optimizing further, in step f, according to relevant domain expert, from basin overall interests angle, by warp Testing each index weights vector ω=(ω is given with professional judgement₁,ω₂,…,ω_m)^T, calculate each scheme and ideal solution θ pressed close to Degree is respectively：

Based on pattern recognition theory method, the scheme of a closest ideal solution the scheme for providing from U and D, is selected, I.e. with opt=max { s_u1,s_u2,…s_un,s_d1,s_d2,…,s_dnAs optimum river diversion scheme during construction.

Advantages of the present invention with beneficial effect is：(1) the water conservancy diversion side that impact is let out in a kind of control of consideration upstream power station is proposed Case decision method, while consider interests and the preference in upstream power station and downstream power station in decision making process.(2) achieve and apply The Optimal Decision-making of work diversion plan, has taken into account the balanced and overall interests of upstream and downstream power station common interest and has maximized, decision making process More conform to engineering reality.

Description of the drawings

Fig. 1 is to consider in the present invention that the river diversion scheme during construction decision method flow chart that lets out is controlled in upstream power station.

Specific embodiment

It is contemplated that existing with preference for the interests that cannot take into account upstream power station in traditional water conservancy diversion solution technique Deficiency, propose a kind of river diversion scheme during construction decision method let out of consideration upstream power station control, as shown in figure 1, the method includes Following steps：

A. the decision index system of the river diversion scheme during construction that the control of consideration upstream power station is let out is chosen, and carries out calculating analysis.

The present invention chooses the decision index system of the river diversion scheme during construction that the control of consideration upstream power station is let out, and concrete grammar includes：Choosing The combination of the flood season limit level in upstream power station and the diversion standards in downstream power station is taken as diversion plan collection；Upstream is represented with U Power station, represents downstream power station with D, if x₁,x₂,...,x_nFor the decision index system that U, D both sides pay close attention to jointly.Decision index system is： The flooding risk of loss and expect generated energy of upstream power station, and the cofferdam construction intensity in downstream power station, training works are thrown Money, weir risk of loss desired value of bursting.Computational methods for specific targets are prior art, refer to Zhang Chao (2014)《It is based on The river diversion scheme during construction decision model of previous-next swimming power station bargaining weight》The computational methods for providing in one text, are no longer gone to live in the household of one's in-laws on getting married here State.

B. recommend river diversion scheme during construction by upstream and downstream power station respectively according to respective interests.

The present invention represents upstream power station with U, represents downstream power station with D, if x₁,x₂,...,x_nCommon for U, D both sides The index of concern.If U, D all recommend n alternative diversion plan to basin company M, each scheme includes m index, and scheme is determined Plan index set is respectively U_n=(u_ij)_n×mAnd D_n=(d_ij)_n×m, wherein：u_ij、d_ijI-th diversion plan that respectively U, D recommend J-th desired value, wherein i=1,2 ..., m；J=1,2 ..., n.

C. each index weights vector being given by upstream and downstream power station according to itself preference, and sets up respective scheme evaluation Function.

The present invention gives each index weights vector by upstream and downstream power station according to number one and preference, and sets up each The concrete grammar of scheme evaluation function include：If the weight vectors that U and D gives each decision index system are respectively：μ=(μ₁, μ₂,…,μ_m)^T, γ=(γ₁,γ₂,…,γ_m)^T.

The scheme evaluation function of construction U, D, for profit evaluation model index, has：

For cost type index, have：

The schemes synthesis evaluation function for obtaining U and D is respectively：

D. based on bargain game and optimum theory, solved using two benches planing method, draw perfect condition optimal solution；

The present invention is solved using two benches planing method based on Bargaining Game Theory and optimum theory method, to take into account, Downstream power station common interest is balanced and overall interests maximum turns to principle, and the effectiveness compromise programming model of first stage is：

Upstream and downstream power station both sides are promoted to improve overall efficiency further, the marginal utility plan model of second stage is：

Planned by two benches, the information for providing by both party is obtained the target-like of both sides' all acceptable ideal schemes State, i.e. ideal solution are θ=(θ₁,θ₂,…,θ_m)^T.

E. the decision index system matrix and perfect condition optimal solution in upstream and downstream power station is normalized；

The present invention is normalized to the decision index system matrix and ideal solution θ of U, D first, whereinWithThen imitate Beneficial type target, normalization formula is：

Cost type target, normalization formula is：

F. the weight vectors of each target are given from basin overall interests according to association area expert, using pattern recognition Theoretical method solves optimum river diversion scheme during construction.

The present invention, is given with professional judgement by experience from basin overall interests angle according to relevant domain expert Each index weights vector ω=(ω₁,ω₂,…,ω_m)^T, calculate each scheme and the approach degree of ideal solution θ be respectively：

Based on pattern recognition theory method, the scheme of a closest ideal solution the scheme for providing from U and D, is selected, I.e. with opt=max { s_u1,s_u2,…s_un,s_d1,s_d2,…,s_dnAs optimum river diversion scheme during construction.

Below embodiment of the present invention is described with a specific example：

So that the present invention is implemented in certain basin cascade hydropower engineering development as an example, certain basin existing reservoir A, is one to send out Integrated application hydroelectric project based on electricity and flood control.At present, positive planning construction is located at cascade hydropower engineering B in reservoir A downstream, its Initial stage of construction diversion mode is intended by the way of not overflow earth-rock cofferdam whole year water retarding standard and tunnel earial drainage, according to the rule of related specifications Fixed, diversion structure is 3 grades of temporay buildings, and through comprehensive analysis, designed standard for flood control corresponds to 20～50 years return periods.According to stream The geographical and Hydrological characteristics in domain, major flood season is mainly based on upper pond A experience flood, and there is arable land Reservoir region, it is allowed to flood height Journey is 332m.Initial stage of construction diversion considers the construction diversion side for adjusting to optimize downstream power station using upper pond flood season limit level Case.

In conjunction with the practical situation of the engineering, the technical scheme for being provided using the present invention carries out decision-making to river diversion scheme during construction.

1st, the decision index system of the river diversion scheme during construction that the control of consideration upstream power station is let out is chosen, and carries out calculating analysis.

Calculated according to evaluation index, 6 for existing initial stage river diversion scheme during construction and risk achievement are as shown in table 1：

The feasible diversion plan of table 1 and risk

2nd, recommend river diversion scheme during construction by upstream and downstream power station respectively according to respective interests.

In six river diversion scheme during construction that tentatively drafts, conflict both sides U and D considers number one and each side feelings Three alternatives are given under condition respectively, and the corresponding evaluation index value of each scheme is as shown in table 2：

2 suggested design of table corresponds to evaluation index value

3rd, each index weights vector being given by upstream and downstream power station according to itself preference, and sets up respective scheme evaluation Function.

The weight for each evaluation index being given respectively by upstream and downstream power station is：

μ=(0.25,0.35,0.13,0.12,0.15)；

γ=(0.15,0.20,0.25,0.16,0.24)

The scheme evaluation function for trying to achieve U and D is：

SF_A(X)=0.00327x₁+0.00114x₂-0.0565x₃-1.17e-4x₄-2.32e-5x₅-0.801；

SF_B(X)=- 0.00196*x₁+6.51e-4x₂-0.175*x₃-2.49e-4x₄-3.43e-5x₅+5.08

4., based on bargain game and optimum theory, solved using two benches planing method, draw perfect condition optimal solution.

Make SF_A(X)=SF_B(X), obtain：

-0.00131x₁+0.000489x₂+0.1185x₃+0.000132x₄+0.0000111x₅=5.881

Planned according to the first stage, obtain optimal solution：

X₁=(305.7,4826.35,22.1038818,9464.41,4754.03)

Target function value is：

SF_A(X₁)=SF_B(X₁)=1.2349

Plan further according to second stage, obtain optimal solution：

X₂=(305.7,4826.35,22.02,9464.41,4754.03)

Target function value is：

SF_A(X₂)+SF_B(X₂)=2.4892；

SF_A(X₂)=1.2396；

SF_B(X₂)=1.2496

Second stage planning is all made moderate progress compared with first stage planning, then final optimal solution is：

θ=X₂=(305.7,4826.35,22.02,9464.41,4754.03)

5. the decision index system matrix in pair upstream and downstream power station and perfect condition optimal solution are normalized, as 3 institute of table Show：

3 normalization outcome table of table

6. first, the weight vectors difference of each decision index system is given from basin overall interests according to association area expert For ω=(0.18,0.29,0.20,0.13,0.20), then, the approach degree for calculating each scheme of U and D respectively is：

T_U=(0.6744,0.6974,0.6793)；

T_D=(0.7069,0.6346,0.6934)；

Finally, Land use models recognition methodss, are D according to the preferably optimum river diversion scheme during construction of the principle of approach degree maximum The scheme three of proposition, i.e. upper pond flood season limit level take 328m, and downstream Construction Diversion Design standard takes 5%.

According to the method for the present invention, following important achievement is obtained：The by both party power given to each evaluation index by U and D Reassign and can be seen that respective preference is different with value orientation with the diversion plan that recommends, U considers more, D to upper pond More to the consideration of downstream construction diversion, so the scheme difference that each recommends；While considering upstream power station in decision making process Interests and preference with downstream power station；The Optimal Decision-making of river diversion scheme during construction is achieved, has taken into account upstream and downstream power station both sides Balance of interest and overall interests are maximized, and decision making process more conforms to engineering reality, meets basin step power station rolling development Management mode.

It should be noted that the above is only the preferred embodiment of the present invention, for the common skill of the art For art personnel, under the premise without departing from the principles of the invention, some improvements and modifications can also be made, these improvements and modifications Also protection scope of the present invention should be regarded as.In the present embodiment, clearly each ingredient all not can use prior art to be realized.

Claims (7)

1. the river diversion scheme during construction decision method that a kind of control of consideration upstream power station is let out, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps：

A. the decision index system of the river diversion scheme during construction that the control of consideration upstream power station is let out is chosen, and carries out calculating analysis；

B. recommend river diversion scheme during construction by upstream and downstream power station respectively according to respective interests；

C. each index weights vector being given by upstream and downstream power station according to itself preference, and sets up respective scheme evaluation function；

D. based on bargain game and optimum theory, solved using two benches planing method, draw perfect condition optimal solution；

E. the decision index system matrix and perfect condition optimal solution in upstream and downstream power station is normalized；

F. the weight vectors of each target are given from basin overall interests according to association area expert, using pattern recognition theory Method solves optimum river diversion scheme during construction.

2. the river diversion scheme during construction decision method that a kind of control of consideration upstream power station is let out as claimed in claim 1, its feature exists In,

In step a, the decision index system of the river diversion scheme during construction that the control of consideration upstream power station is let out is chosen, and concrete grammar includes：Choose The combination of the diversion standards in the flood season limit level in upstream power station and downstream power station is used as diversion plan collection；Upper water is represented with U Power station, represents downstream power station with D, if x₁,x₂,...,x_nFor the decision index system of the common concern of U, D both sides, decision index system is：On Swimming power station flood risk of loss and expect generated energy, and downstream power station cofferdam construction intensity, training works investment, Routed weir risk of loss desired value.

3. the river diversion scheme during construction decision method that a kind of control of consideration upstream power station is let out as claimed in claim 1, its feature exists In,

In step b, upstream power station is represented with U, downstream power station is represented with D, if x₁,x₂,...,x_nClosed for U, D both sides jointly The index of note, if U, D all recommend n alternative diversion plan to basin company M, each scheme includes m index, program decisions Index set is respectively U_n=(u_ij)_n×mAnd D_n=(d_ij)_n×m, wherein：u_ij、d_ijI-th diversion plan that respectively U, D recommend J-th desired value, wherein i=1,2 ..., m；J=1,2 ..., n.

4. the river diversion scheme during construction decision method that a kind of control of consideration upstream power station is let out as claimed in claim 1, its feature exists In, in step c, described by upstream and downstream power station according to number one and each index weights vector of preference imparting, and set up each The concrete grammar of scheme evaluation function include：If the weight vectors that U and D gives each decision index system are respectively：μ=(μ₁, μ₂,…,μ_m)^Tγ=(γ₁,γ₂,…,γ_m)^T；

The scheme evaluation function of construction U, D, for profit evaluation model index, has：

${\mathrm{SF}}_U\left(x_j\right)=\frac{u_{ij}-\underset{j}{\min }{u}_{ij}}{\underset{j}{\max }{u}_{ij}-\underset{j}{\min }{u}_{ij}}---\left(1\right)$

${\mathrm{SF}}_D\left(x_j\right)=\frac{d_{ij}-\underset{j}{\min }{d}_{ij}}{\underset{j}{\max }{d}_{ij}-\underset{j}{\min }{d}_{ij}}---\left(2\right)$

For cost type index, have：

${\mathrm{SF}}_U\left(x_j\right)=\frac{\underset{j}{\max }{u}_{ij}-u_{ij}}{\underset{j}{\max }{u}_{ij}-\underset{j}{\min }{u}_{ij}}---\left(3\right)$

${\mathrm{SF}}_D\left(x_j\right)=\frac{\underset{j}{\max }{d}_{ij}-d_{ij}}{\underset{j}{\max }{d}_{ij}-\underset{j}{\min }{d}_{ij}}---\left(4\right)$

The schemes synthesis evaluation function for obtaining U and D is respectively：

${\mathrm{SF}}_U\left(X\right)=\underset{j=1}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}{\mathrm{\μ}}_j\·{\mathrm{SF}}_U\left(x_j\right)---\left(5\right)$

${\mathrm{SF}}_D\left(X\right)=\underset{j=1}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}{\mathrm{\γ}}_j\·{\mathrm{SF}}_D\left(x_j\right)---\left(6\right).$

5. the river diversion scheme during construction decision method that a kind of control of consideration upstream power station is let out as claimed in claim 1, its feature exists In,

In step d, based on Bargaining Game Theory and optimum theory method, solved using two benches planing method, upper and lower to take into account Swimming power station common interest is balanced and overall interests maximum turns to principle, and the effectiveness compromise programming model of first stage is：

maxSF_U(X)

$s.t\left\{\begin{array}{c}{\mathrm{SF}}_U\left(X\right)={\mathrm{SF}}_D\left(X\right)\\ X\∈S\end{array}\right.---\left(7\right)$

Upstream and downstream power station both sides are promoted to improve overall efficiency further, the marginal utility plan model of second stage is：

max(SF_U(X)+SF_D(X))

$s.t\left\{\begin{array}{c}{\mathrm{SF}}_U\left(X\right)\≥{\mathrm{SF}}_U\left(X_0\right)\\ {\mathrm{SF}}_D\left(X\right)\≥{\mathrm{SF}}_D\left(X_0\right)\\ X\∈S\end{array}\right.---\left(8\right)$

Planned by two benches, the information for providing by both party is obtained the dbjective state of both sides' all acceptable ideal schemes, i.e., Ideal solution is θ=(θ₁,θ₂,…,θ_m)^T.

6. the river diversion scheme during construction decision method that a kind of control of consideration upstream power station is let out as claimed in claim 1, its feature exists In,

In step e, the index matrix first to U, D and ideal solution θ are normalized, whereinWithThen imitate Beneficial type target, normalization formula is：

$\stackrel{\‾}{u_{ij}}=\frac{u_{ij}-u_{jmin}}{u_{jmax}-u_{jmin}};\stackrel{\‾}{{\mathrm{\θ}}_j}=\frac{{\mathrm{\θ}}_j-u_{jmin}}{u_{jmax}-u_{jmin}}---\left(9\right)$

$\stackrel{\‾}{d_{ij}}=\frac{d_{ij}-d_{jmin}}{d_{jmax}-d_{jmin}};\stackrel{\‾}{{\mathrm{\θ}}_j}=\frac{{\mathrm{\θ}}_j-d_{jmin}}{d_{jmax}-d_{jmin}}---\left(10\right)$

Cost type target, normalization formula is：

$\stackrel{\‾}{u_{ij}}=\frac{u_{j\max }-u_{ij}}{u_{jmax}-u_{jmin}};\stackrel{\‾}{{\mathrm{\θ}}_j}=\frac{u_{j\max }-{\mathrm{\θ}}_j}{u_{jmax}-u_{jmin}}---\left(11\right)$

$\stackrel{\‾}{d_{ij}}=\frac{d_{j\max }-d_{ij}}{d_{jmax}-d_{jmin}};\stackrel{\‾}{{\mathrm{\θ}}_j}=\frac{d_{j\max }-{\mathrm{\θ}}_j}{d_{jmax}-d_{jmin}}---\left(12\right).$

7. the river diversion scheme during construction decision method that a kind of control of consideration upstream power station is let out as claimed in claim 1, its feature exists In in step f, according to relevant domain expert, from basin overall interests angle, by experience and each finger of professional judgement imparting Mark weight vectors ω=(ω₁,ω₂,…,ω_m)^T, calculate each scheme and the approach degree of ideal solution θ be respectively：

$s_{ui}=1-\sqrt{\underset{j=1}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}\[{\mathrm{\ω}}_j{(\stackrel{\‾}{u_{ij}}-\stackrel{\‾}{{\mathrm{\θ}}_j})}^2\]/m};s_{di}=1-\sqrt{\underset{j=1}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}\[{\mathrm{\ω}}_j{(\stackrel{\‾}{d_{ij}}-\stackrel{\‾}{{\mathrm{\θ}}_j})}^2\]/m}---\left(13\right)$

The scheme of one closest ideal solution based on pattern recognition theory method, is provided the scheme for providing from U and D, i.e., with Opt=max { s_u1,s_u2,…s_un,s_d1,s_d2,…,s_dnAs optimum river diversion scheme during construction.