CN106383373B - Isopleth, Isosurface construction, method for early warning based on actual measurement with forecast rainfall - Google Patents
Isopleth, Isosurface construction, method for early warning based on actual measurement with forecast rainfall Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention provides a kind of isopleth based on actual measurement with forecast rainfall, Isosurface construction, method for early warning, consider that current actual measurement rainfall and following forecast rainfall carry out " forecast rainfall " isopleth simultaneously, the drafting of contour surface, obtain forecast rainfall, survey rainfall, to forecasting rainfall, actual measurement rainfall product data is handled, according to treated, " forecast rainfall " draws precipitation isohyetal line, contour surface, so by treated " forecast rainfall " isopleth, contour surface intuitively understands the region for next needing to pay close attention to, the time of Emergency Preparedness can be shifted to an earlier date significantly.Further, it can be based on the comparison that treated " forecast rainfall " with survey station threshold value of warning, early warning is sent out in advance, so that relevant person in charge is noticed the region for being likely to occur dangerous situation in advance, carry out counter-measure in advance.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to weather forecast and early warning fields, and in particular to a kind of equivalence based on actual measurement with forecast rainfall
Line, Isosurface construction, method for early warning.
Background technology
Existing flood control informationization related system mainly has about the mode that rainfall is shown：1, with the shape of text or table
Formula shows rainfall.2, rainfall is shown in the form of rainfall block diagram.3, drop is shown in the form of precipitation isohyetal line, contour surface
Rainfall（It is mainly based upon actual measurement rainfall or forecast rainfall is drawn, do not consider actual measurement rainfall and dropped with forecast
Rainfall）.
Method for early warning based on rainfall mainly has：1, rainfall and threshold value of warning is surveyed to be compared, reach threshold value i.e. into
Row early warning.2, it forecasts that rainfall and threshold value of warning are compared, reaches threshold value and carry out early warning.3, consider actual measurement rainfall
With forecast rainfall, is compared with early warning value, reach threshold value and carry out early warning.
The third alarm mode referenced patent document：201610132726.X one kind is calculated based on the quantitative rainfall forecast of fusion
The mountain torrents early warning platform and method for early warning of method.
The drafting of precipitation isohyetal line, contour surface is carried out based on actual measurement rainfall in current flood control informationization related system
It draws, work of flood prevention personnel can only understand current different zones rainfall distribution situation by isopleth, contour surface, for anti-
It is relatively short to prepare the emergent time for flood work arrangements.For such situation, also there is part system using forecast rainfall
The drafting for carrying out isopleth, contour surface, work of flood prevention personnel can be made to recognize in advance to be influenced caused by the following rainfall is possible, is
It copes with possible dangerous situation and has won the time.But work of flood prevention is a dynamic process, thereby increases and it is possible to there is rainfall and be not achieved
Threshold value of warning is also not achieved in threshold value of warning, forecast rainfall, but rainfall adds the early warning threshold for forecasting that rainfall has reached the corresponding period
The case where value；The problem of considering further that current rainfall forecast technology accuracy rate, considers rainfall and forecast rainfall carries out
Early warning practicability higher.The present invention is just to provide one kind and considering rainfall and forecast rainfall, passes through isopleth, contour surface
Form show and carry out the method and system of early warning, improved to the leading time of dangerous situation with intuitive way, enable leader
It is enough to notice potential danger earlier.
Invention content
The object of the present invention is to provide a kind of based on actual measurement and forecasts the isopleth, Isosurface construction, the pre- police of rainfall
Method, considers rainfall and forecast rainfall drawing isoline, contour surface carry out comparison with threshold value of warning and carry out early warning in turn.
To achieve the above object, the present invention uses following technical scheme：A kind of equivalence based on actual measurement with forecast rainfall
Line, Isosurface construction, method for early warning, which is characterized in that include the following steps：Step S1：Obtain predictions for future rainfall product data
With current actual measurement rainfall product data；Step S2：The predictions for future rainfall and actual measurement rainfall product data that are obtained in step S1 are pressed
It is handled according to the rule of setting, data that treated are known as forecasting rainfall, are output to isopleth, Isosurface construction module and pre-
Alert determination module；Step S3：The drafting of precipitation isohyetal line, contour surface is carried out to forecast rainfall data；Each period is both provided with
Threshold value of warning compares forecast rainfall and the threshold value of warning of corresponding period, when reaching or exceeding early warning, will need into
Survey station, area, corresponding rainfall and the corresponding period information of the rainfall of row early warning pass to early warning release module and enter step
Rapid S4；Step S4：Carry out early warning publication.
Further, forecast that the computational methods of rainfall include the following steps in step S2：Step S21：Obtain different periods
Forecast rainfall and actual measurement rainfall；Step S22：If the period collection of forecast rainfall is combined into A hours following, actual measurement rainfall
Period collection be combined into over B hours, early warning period collection is combined into C hours, a ∈ A, b ∈ B, c ∈ C, c ' ∈ C；A, b, c are nature
Number；Step S23：If a=c and（a+b）C, then a hours forecast rainfalls are not processed forecast rainfall, early warning directly as c hours
When compared with c hours threshold value of warning, meet or exceed threshold value of warning publication warning information；If a=c, a+b=c ' is divided to two kinds of feelings
Condition：First, a hours forecast rainfalls are not processed and forecast that rainfall, when early warning were opposed with c hours threshold value of warning directly as c hour
Than meeting or exceeding threshold value of warning publication warning information；First, a hours forecast rainfalls add b hours actual measurement rainfalls as c '
Hour forecast rainfall, compares when early warning with c ' hour threshold value of warning, meets or exceeds threshold value of warning publication warning information；Work as a
When C, a+b=c, a hours forecast rainfalls add b hour actual measurement rainfalls as c hours and forecast rainfall, when early warning and early warning in c hours
Threshold value compares, and meets or exceeds threshold value of warning publication warning information.
Further, the forecast rainfall after the computational methods in step S23 calculate, if a hours future forecast rainfall
The sum of rainfall was surveyed with past b hour, then special identifier is carried out in systems, to show and directly make predictions for future rainfall
To forecast the difference of rainfall such case.
Further, early warning publication by early warning short message, wireless alarming broadcast, mailbox or is faxed to early warning survey in step S4
It stands or region related personnel sends warning information.
Further, the early warning publication in step S4 automatically generates corresponding early warning content, and then carry out by early warning template
The publication of early warning；Early warning template is by system according to presetting automatic running or by being manually arranged.
In an embodiment of the present invention, early warning content carries out early warning publication or through phase by system automatically according to the regular of setting
Pass personnel audit is issued after changing when necessary.
The present invention is simple in rule to the processing of rainfall data and it can be readily appreciated that the form by isopleth, contour surface carries out
Displaying is vivid, intuitive, in combination with early warning issuing function, work of flood prevention personnel is enable to perceive possible danger in advance, into
And prepare counter-measure in advance, it is of great significance on reducing disaster influence.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the main flow schematic diagram of the present invention.
Specific implementation mode
Explanation is further explained to the present invention in the following with reference to the drawings and specific embodiments.
A kind of isopleth, Isosurface construction, method for early warning based on actual measurement with forecast rainfall comprising following steps：
Step S1：Obtain predictions for future rainfall product data and current actual measurement rainfall product data；Step S2：To the future obtained in step S1
Forecast rainfall and actual measurement rainfall product data are handled according to the rule of setting, and data that treated are known as forecasting rainfall, defeated
Go out to isopleth, Isosurface construction module and early warning determination module；Step S3：To forecast rainfall data carry out precipitation isohyetal line,
The drafting of contour surface；Each period is both provided with threshold value of warning, and forecast rainfall and the threshold value of warning of corresponding period are compared,
When reaching or exceeding early warning, survey station, area, corresponding rainfall and the rainfall corresponding period for needing to carry out early warning will be believed
Breath passes to early warning release module and enters step S4；Step S4：Carry out early warning publication.
Forecast that the computational methods of rainfall include the following steps in step S2：
Step S21：Obtain the forecast rainfall and actual measurement rainfall of different periods；
Step S22：If it is A hours following to forecast that the period collection of rainfall is combined into, the period collection B of being combined into over of rainfall is surveyed
Hour, early warning period collection is combined into C hours, a ∈ A, b ∈ B, c ∈ C, c ' ∈ C；A, b, c are natural number.
Step S23：If a=c and（a+b）C, then a hours forecast rainfalls are not processed forecast rain directly as c hours
Amount, when early warning, compare with c hours threshold value of warning, meet or exceed threshold value of warning and issue warning information；If a=c, a+b=c ', point
Two kinds of situations, first, a hours forecast rainfalls are not processed directly as c hour forecast rainfall, when early warning and c hours early warning thresholds
Value compares, and meets or exceeds threshold value of warning publication warning information, first, a hours forecast rainfalls add b hours actual measurement rainfalls
Rainfall is forecast as c ' hours, is compared with c ' hour threshold value of warning when early warning, is met or exceeded threshold value of warning publication early warning letter
Breath；As a C, a+b=c, a hours forecast rainfalls add b hour actual measurement rainfalls as c hours and forecast rainfall, when early warning and c
Hour threshold value of warning compares, and meets or exceeds threshold value of warning publication warning information.
C after being calculated in step S23（Or c ', following description is using c as being referred to as in this paragragh）Hour forecast
Rainfall, if the sum of a hours future forecast rainfall and b hours in the past actual measurement rainfalls, then carry out special identifier in systems,
To show the difference with the forecast rainfall such case that directly looks to the future, such as with " c (a) " expression c hours warning levels, leading times
A hours, rained c-a=b hours；Or " c (b) " indicate c hours warning levels, rained b hours, leading time c-b=a it is small
When；Or " c-a " indicates c hours warning levels, leading time a hours, has rained c-a=b hours;It can also be other mark side
Formula, the present invention do not limit；Indicated if being identified using " c " directly by predictions for future rainfall as forecast rainfall.
In specific embodiment：Rain detection with radar is mainly short forecasting, based on this hypothesis obtain following 1 hour, 2 hours, it is 3 small
When rainfall forecast data.Rainfall early warning considers 1 hour, 3 hours, 6 hours, 12 hours 4 ranks." forecast rainfall " is：1 hour
Forecast data is not processed, and directly as 1 hour " forecast rainfall ", is compared with 1 hour threshold value of warning；Pre- count off in 2 hours
It compares, can mark with 3 hours threshold value of warning as 3 hours " forecast rainfall " according to the practical rainfall product data plus past 1 hour
It is denoted as " 3（2）" or " 3-2 " etc.；3 hours forecast datas are divided into two kinds of situations：It is small directly as 3 one is not dealing with
When " forecast rainfall ", compared with 3 hours threshold value of warning, another kind is, by 3 hours forecast datas plus 3 hours in the past reality
Rainfall product data can be labeled as " 6 as 6 hours forecast rainfall（3）" or " 6-3 " etc..
This example does not limit rainfall forecast period, early warning period, is only used as one of embodiment, period root
It can be adjusted according to the needs of development or the real work of forecasting technique.
Further, for by forecasting that rainfall is used as forecast rainfall with the sum of actual measurement rainfall in the past in step S4
Situation is identified, either the drafting of isopleth, contour surface, or generate warning information content, and by early warning short message,
Wireless alarming broadcast, mailbox are faxed to early warning survey station or region related personnel transmission warning information.
Further, the early warning publication in step S4 automatically generates corresponding early warning content, and then carry out according to early warning template
The publication of early warning；Early warning template is by system according to presetting automatic running or by being manually arranged.Early warning template can be in system
In preset, preferably, user such as can increase early warning template, delete, change at the operations.
Early warning content is carried out early warning publication automatically according to the rule of setting by system or is repaiied when necessary through related personnel's audit
It is issued after changing.
Early warning publication include early warning template-setup, warning information editor, alarm mode select, sending object selection function,
Specifically system still can be manually arranged according to presetting automatic running.Early warning release module obtains early warning determination module
Judgement needs to send out the information of early warning, and corresponding early warning content is automatically generated according to default early warning template, also can human-edited's early warning
Content, and then carry out the publication of early warning.The early warning published method present invention is not limited, and can be rule of the system automatically according to setting
Early warning publication is then carried out, can also provide after early warning audit function related personnel audit is changed when necessary and issue, Huo Zhebao
Two kinds of mechanism are stayed to be selected for user.In addition, the early warning publication means present invention is not also limited, include optionally it is following a kind of or
It is a variety of, can also be except example set forth below：Reach the rainfall contour surface in the region of threshold value of warning with special mode into
Row shows, such as flicker, sound, or the survey station of association early warning region is shown on contour surface（Either survey station figure
The displaying on map such as mark, title can also be to click prewarning area push early warning survey station information or stackable all surveys
Information of standing but the special displaying of the survey station for needing early warning --- such as pass through the modes such as flicker, different colours or sound）；By pre-
Alert short message, wireless alarming broadcast, mailbox, fax etc. send warning information to early warning survey station or region related personnel.The present invention
Publication channel, sending object setting function are provided, automatic publication can be equally preset, is configured when can also issue every time,
Also the operations such as publication channel, the newly-increased of sending object, modification, deletion can be carried out.
The above are preferred embodiments of the present invention, all any changes made according to the technical solution of the present invention, and generated function is made
When with range without departing from technical solution of the present invention, all belong to the scope of protection of the present invention.
Claims (5)
1. it is a kind of based on actual measurement with forecast rainfall isopleth, Isosurface construction, method for early warning, which is characterized in that including with
Lower step：
Step S1：Obtain predictions for future rainfall product data and current actual measurement rainfall product data；
Step S2：To the predictions for future rainfall that is obtained in step S1 and actual measurement rainfall product data according to the rule of setting at
Reason, data that treated are known as forecasting rainfall, are output to isopleth, Isosurface construction module and early warning determination module；
Step S3：The drafting of precipitation isohyetal line, contour surface is carried out to forecast rainfall data；Each period is both provided with early warning threshold
Value compares forecast rainfall and the threshold value of warning of corresponding period, reaches or when beyond early warning, will be needing progress early warning
Survey station, area, corresponding rainfall and the corresponding period information of the rainfall pass to early warning release module and enter step S4；
Step S4：Carry out early warning publication;
Forecast that the computational methods of rainfall include the following steps in step S2：
Step S21：Obtain forecast rainfall, the actual measurement rainfall of different periods；
Step S22：If it is A hours following to forecast that the period collection of rainfall is combined into, the period collection B of being combined into over for surveying rainfall is small
When, early warning period collection is combined into C hours, a ∈ A, b ∈ B, c ∈ C, c ' ∈ C；A, b, c are natural number；
Step S23：If a=c and（a+b）C, then a hours forecast rainfalls are not processed forecast rainfall directly as c hours, in advance
It is compared with c hours threshold value of warning when alert, meets or exceeds threshold value of warning publication warning information；If a=c, a+b=c ' is divided to two kinds
Situation：First, a hours forecast rainfalls are not processed directly as c hour forecast rainfall, when early warning with c hours threshold value of warning works
Comparison meets or exceeds threshold value of warning publication warning information；First, a hours forecast rainfalls add actual measurement rainfall conduct in b hours
C ' hours forecast rainfall, are compared with c ' hour threshold value of warning when early warning, meet or exceed threshold value of warning publication warning information；When
When a C, a+b=c, a hours forecast rainfalls add b hour actual measurement rainfalls as c hour and forecast rainfall, when early warning and c hours in advance
Alert threshold value compares, and meets or exceeds threshold value of warning publication warning information.
2. isopleth, Isosurface construction, method for early warning according to claim 1 based on actual measurement with forecast rainfall,
It is characterized in that：The forecast rainfall after computational methods calculating in step S23, if a hours future forecast rainfall and b is small in the past
When actual measurement the sum of rainfall, then carry out special identifier in systems, using show with directly by predictions for future rainfall as forecasting rain
Measure the difference of such case.
3. isopleth, Isosurface construction, method for early warning according to claim 1 based on actual measurement with forecast rainfall,
It is characterized in that：Early warning publication by early warning short message, wireless alarming broadcast, mailbox or is faxed to early warning survey station or area in step S4
Domain related personnel sends warning information.
4. isopleth, Isosurface construction, method for early warning according to claim 1 based on actual measurement with forecast rainfall,
It is characterized in that：Early warning publication in step S4 automatically generates corresponding early warning content, and then carry out the hair of early warning by early warning template
Cloth；Early warning template is by system according to presetting automatic running or by being manually arranged.
5. isopleth, Isosurface construction, method for early warning according to claim 4 based on actual measurement with forecast rainfall,
It is characterized in that：Early warning content is carried out early warning publication automatically according to the rule of setting by system or is changed through related personnel's audit laggard
Row publication.
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| CN107608010A (en) * | 2017-10-12 | 2018-01-19 | 江苏航天大为科技股份有限公司 | A kind of urban water affairs rainfall isoplethes drawing method and drawing system |
| CN109241369B (en) * | 2018-08-02 | 2019-06-21 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Rainfall isopleth construction method based on grid stretching method |
| CN110111538B (en) * | 2019-04-30 | 2021-06-25 | 中国电建集团北京勘测设计研究院有限公司 | Dynamic monitoring, early warning and analyzing system for mountain torrent disasters |
| CN114093133A (en) * | 2021-11-24 | 2022-02-25 | 合肥工业大学 | Regional geological disaster weather forecast early warning method |
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| JP5083522B2 (en) * | 2007-08-16 | 2012-11-28 | 日本電気株式会社 | Network monitoring method, network monitoring apparatus, line error prevention system, network monitoring apparatus program |
| JP5247301B2 (en) * | 2008-08-21 | 2013-07-24 | 中国電力株式会社 | Disaster prevention system judgment support system |
| CN102103787B (en) * | 2011-02-27 | 2013-06-26 | 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 | Debris flow early warning method |
| CN103714661B (en) * | 2013-11-14 | 2016-06-08 | 浙江省国土资源厅信息中心 | The landslide real time early warning method of rainfall threshold adaptive |
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| CN105740618B (en) * | 2016-01-28 | 2018-10-26 | 成都理工大学 | Rainfall dividing method for the prediction of ditch bed start type mud-rock flow |
| CN105608840A (en) * | 2016-03-09 | 2016-05-25 | 长江水利委员会水文局 | Mountain torrents early warning platform based on fused quantitative rainfall forecast algorithm, and early warning method thereof |
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