CN106355540A - Small- and medium-sized reservoir dam safety evaluating method based on GRA-BP (grey relational analysis and back propagation) neural network - Google Patents

Small- and medium-sized reservoir dam safety evaluating method based on GRA-BP (grey relational analysis and back propagation) neural network Download PDF

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CN106355540A
CN106355540A CN201610830410.8A CN201610830410A CN106355540A CN 106355540 A CN106355540 A CN 106355540A CN 201610830410 A CN201610830410 A CN 201610830410A CN 106355540 A CN106355540 A CN 106355540A
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李浩平
李峰
卞雪
唐傲翔
李悦佳
欧阳俊
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China Three Gorges University CTGU
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Abstract

The invention provides a small- and medium-sized reservoir dam safety evaluating method based on GRA-BP (grey relational analysis and back propagation) neural network in order to overcome the defects of existing small- and medium-sized reservoir dam safety evaluating technology and method. The method comprises the steps of screening main factors influencing small- and medium-sized reservoir dam safety based on grey relational analysis method, and constructing a small- and medium-sized reservoir dam safety evaluation index system; generating a network training inspection sample; determining topological structure of the BP neural network; setting main training parameters of the BP neural network, initializing network connection weights and thresholds, and setting network training end conditions, error precision and training frequency; correcting the network by using L-M algorithm accumulative network global errors; entering the training and inspection samples to train and inspect the safety evaluating BP neural network, and finally constructing an intelligent dam safety evaluating model based on BP neural network. The method provides the functions such as comprehensive safety evaluation and hidden peril analysis, and is highly scientific, effective and practical.

Description

A kind of medium and small reservoirs system for evaluating safety method based on gra-bp neutral net
Technical field
The present invention relates to reservoir dam security study technical field, especially a kind of medium and small based on gra-bp neutral net Type reservoir dam safe evaluation method, is widely used in safety analysis and the evaluation of all kinds of medium and small reservoirs dams.
Background technology
China's existing reservoir sum more than 90,000 8 thousand, is the most country of reservoir dam quantity in the world.Built is big In dam, 96% is all middle-size and small-size dam, is that the flood control of the city of China and periphery, irrigation and generating electricity plays an important role.This A little medium and small reservoirs dams are mostly earth and rockfill dam, run time more than 30~40 years, As time goes on, the growth in dam age, The various conditions (as structure, basis, environment etc.) that dam runs gradually change, and build defect during dam in addition, run not When factors such as, environmental changes, so that quite a few dam exists, design standard is low, foundation seepage, dam body materialses are aging Rotten, the decay of dam structure the character even problem of the impact such as deterioration dam safety, in medium and small reservoirs dam, about 36% belongs to Dangerously weak reseroirs dam, this present situation not only have impact on the performance of project benefit, also seriously threatens life and the wealth of the downstream people The safety produced.The safety problem of reservoir dam, has been not only engineering safety, even more public safety problem.Therefore, how right Scientific and reasonable evaluation is made in the safety of reservoir dam, for water power management work provide decision-making foundation, and as instruct and Shi Jinhang reinforcement, it is ensured that reservoir dam safe operation, is related to the national economic development and people life property safety Important topic, has important practical significance.
For the safety evaluation building up for many years and medium and small reservoirs dam of operation, the sights paying attention to maneuverability shapes abroad more Examine, the analysis of observational data, domestic rely on existing Regulations, the quality paying attention to the construction time and initial operating stage to occur one A little phenomenon analysis.For example: applied statistics Return Law analysis data of prototype observation, safe timeliness mathematical model is proposed;From reason of creeping Derive the expression formula of dam body top time-effect displacement by setting out, with cyclic loadings such as periodic function simulated water pressures, and with non-linear Square law carries out parameter estimation, and the same period also proposes with combination rheological model search time effect;Start with from physics analysis, propose With dam safety state as system matter element, using matter-element theory, Region place value theory and its correlation function, setting up dam safety can Open up comprehensive evaluation model;Judgment criteria is used as using the total degree of safety of dam (sd=ps/ η) and evaluates reservoir dam safe condition Deng.Although the safety evaluation to dam works achieved with certain achievement at present, still there is problems in that (1) is to dam The monitoring model of safety assessment and evaluation methodology are ripe not enough;(2) the current safety to concrete gravity dam, arch dam etc. Evaluation study is more, but for middle-size and small-size dam such as earth and rockfill dam, due to the specific complexity of its engineering self-characteristic, dam material Property, the difference of running status etc., lack targetedly appraisal model and method.Therefore, set up one kind and be directed to medium and small reservoirs The evaluation methodology of dam general safety state and evaluation model are very necessary.
Content of the invention
Problem to be solved by this invention is for above-mentioned the deficiencies in the prior art, provides one kind to be based on gra-bp nerve net The medium and small reservoirs system for evaluating safety method of network, it establishes the Safety Index System Assessment for medium and small reservoirs dam, Construct the intelligent system for evaluating safety model based on bp neutral net, be capable of the functions such as safety evaluation, dangerous analysis, tool There are higher science, effectiveness and practicality.
In order to solve above-mentioned technical problem, the present invention proposes technical scheme below: a kind of based on gra-bp neutral net Medium and small reservoirs system for evaluating safety method is it is characterised in that it comprises the following steps:
Step 1: build medium and small reservoirs system for evaluating safety index system, screening impact medium and small reservoirs dam safety Principal element, generates medium and small reservoirs system for evaluating safety index system;
Step 2: generate train samples;
Step 3: determine the topological structure of the bp neutral net for safety evaluation;
Step 4: training and inspection bp neutral net;
Step 5: the bp neural network model of performance appraisal that algorithm optimization is determined is used for the evaluation of new case.
Described step 1 concretely comprises the following steps: according to " system for evaluating safety directive/guide ", in conjunction with medium and small reservoirs dam safety characteristic Primary election is carried out to evaluation index, calculates the correlation degree of each primary election index and evaluation result with gray relative analysis method, according to Index grey relational grade result of calculation carries out index screening, sets up the Safety Index System Assessment for medium and small reservoirs dam.
Described step 2 is further: have collected a number of study and test samples, has carried out evaluation index original number According to calculating and pretreatment.
Described step 3,4 it is further: set up gra (grey relational analysis)-ann (artificial Neural networks) intelligent and safe evaluation model.
Described step 3 is further: design bp neural network topology structure: safety evaluation neutral net is that how defeated multi input is The forward-type Three Tiered Network Architecture going out, including an input layer, a hidden layer and an output layer, input layer number is to comment Valency index number, output layer nodes are 5, and rule of thumb formula and test determine node in hidden layer.
Described step 4 is further: determines bp neutral net relevant parameter: hidden layer transmission function adopts s type tangent letter Number tansig, output layer transmission function adopts s type logarithmic function logsig;Set the main training parameter of bp neutral net, bag Include learning rate and factor of momentum;Initial network connection weight and threshold value generate in interval [0,1] at random;Setting network is trained End condition: error precision and frequency of training;Using bp neutral net described in l-m Algorithm for Training.
Described step 5 is further: improves optimization to bp neutral net;Adjust main training parameter, improve network Training speed;Test samples in sample are substituted into safety evaluation neural network model test.
The method have the advantages that:
First, in terms of " system for evaluating safety directive/guide " 7 24 evaluation indexes, according to the Special safety of middle-size and small-size dam Property, enter screening and the optimization of row index using grey correlation analysis, constitute middle-size and small-size system for evaluating safety index system, by subjectivity Analysis judges to be converted into quantitative analytical calculation process, and specific aim and the science of index system have been effectively ensured;Secondly, collect The authentic assessment case of a large amount of medium and small reservoirs dams, as neural metwork training test samples, has been effectively ensured bp neutral net Training precision;Finally, system for evaluating safety and prediction are carried out using bp neural network algorithm, by known sample information Study and training, find and grasp knowledge and the rule of expert opinion, traditional qualitative overall merit is converted into expert teacher, intelligence The evaluation methodology of energy type.
Brief description
The invention will be further described with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples.
The flow chart of Fig. 1 present invention.
The topological structure schematic diagram of tri- layers of medium and small reservoirs system for evaluating safety bp neutral net of Fig. 2.
In Fig. 2: ωilI-th neuron representing input layer is to l-th interneuronal weights of hidden layer, ωljRepresent L-th neuron of hidden layer is to j-th interneuronal connection weight of output layer.
Specific embodiment
Below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings embodiments of the present invention are described further.
For solving the problems, such as prior art, applicant has carried out deep, creative grinding to prior art Study carefully work.The present invention proposes a kind of new medium and small reservoirs system for evaluating safety method based on gra-bp neutral net, leads to Cross: 1) set up middle-size and small-size system for evaluating safety index system;2) analysis of safety monitoring data and process;3) using nerve Network technology build system for evaluating safety model, can effectively solving the problems referred to above, realize the integrated dam safety of intelligent comprehensive Evaluation methodology.
A kind of medium and small reservoirs system for evaluating safety method based on gra-bp neutral net, comprises the steps:
Step 1: build medium and small reservoirs system for evaluating safety index system, screening impact medium and small reservoirs dam safety Principal element, generates medium and small reservoirs system for evaluating safety index system;
Step 2: generate train samples;
Step 3: determine the topological structure of the bp neutral net for safety evaluation;
Step 4: training and inspection, optimization bp neutral net;
Step 5: the bp neural network model of performance appraisal that structure is completed is used for the evaluation of new case.
Specifically, the method to realize process as follows:
Step 1 is further: according to " system for evaluating safety directive/guide ", primary election from 24 two-level index of 7 first class index 21 factors mainly affecting middle-size and small-size dam safety, constitute preliminary Safety Index System Assessment;Index is to middle-size and small-size dam There is no specific aim, enter screening and the optimization of row index using grey correlation analysis;According to index series and result Sequence composition Curve between geometric similarity degree determining the degree of association between them, the geometry of curve is more similar, then this index with The degree of association between evaluation result is bigger.Specifically comprise the following steps that
(1) selection of reference sequences and comparative sequences.It is reference sequences x that this method selects system for evaluating safety result0 K (), using the sequence of primary election index composition as comparative sequences.In this example, reference sequences are equal with the primary data of comparative sequences For 5 dam (n1, n2, n3, n4, n5) sample datas, 21 Raw performance data of comparative sequences data table 1 represent, table 2 It is the evaluation result of the overall security Integrated Assessment On The Level of this 5 dams, be set to reference sequences.
Table 1 primary election index sample data table
Table 2 safety of dam overall merit grade
(2) data nondimensionalization.The initial data of each index is normalized, this method is returned using minimax One change method.
(3) calculate correlation coefficient.Compare ordered series of numbers xiK () is to reference sequence x0K the coefficient of association of () is ξoiK (), utilizes The coefficient of association computing formula of reference sequences index calculates:
ξ 0 i ( k ) = m i n i = 1 , 2 , ... , m m i n k = 1 , 2 , ... , n | x o ( k ) - x i ( k ) | + ρ × m i n i = 1 , 2 , ... , m m i n k = 1 , 2 , ... , n | x o ( k ) - x i ( k ) | | x o ( k ) - x i ( k ) | + ρ × m i n i = 1 , 2 , ... , m m i n k = 1 , 2 , ... , n | x o ( k ) - x i ( k ) |
The each sample sequence of table 3 is relative to the coefficient of association of reference sequence
(4) calculating correlation.It is γ that note compares ordered series of numbers and the degree of association of reference sequence, using the association of reference sequences index Degree computing formula calculates:
γ 0 i = 1 n σ k = 1 n ξ 0 i ( k ) , ( i = 1 , 2 , ... , m )
The grey relational grade of each index of table 4
(5) the index degree of association compares.Quantitatively compare the quality of each evaluation index by the calculating of the degree of association, realize dam body The screening of safety evaluation index and determination.The final deletion relatively low index of the degree of association, retains 15 indexs as evaluation index, builds Vertical medium and small reservoirs dam assessment indicator system.
Above-mentioned steps 2 are further: collect a number of medium and small reservoirs dam safety overall merit example, by example Index initial data carry out quantification treatment, then carry out related pretreatment, generate sample data.Wherein, a part of sample conduct Neural network learning training sample, another part is as network checks sample.
The evaluation index initial data of table 5 dam sample
Step 3 is further: has carried out safety evaluation neural network structure and parameter designing.
The topological structure of the safety evaluation neutral net of present invention design is as follows: neutral net adopts multiple-input and multiple-output Forward-type Three Tiered Network Architecture, mainly includes an input layer, a hidden layer and an output layer.
(1) input vector: filter out 15 evaluation indexes are set to the input layer of bp neural network model, that is, input Node layer number is 15, and input vector is x=(x1,x2,...,x15);
(2) output vector: using system for evaluating safety result grade as output vector, five kinds of safe conditions: normal, basic Normally, respectively with 5 representation in components, output layer nodes are 5, output vector for mile abnormality, the abnormal and pernicious exception of severe For y=(y1,y2,y3,y4,y5);Evaluate state respectively with 5 representation in components for five kinds: (1,0,0,0,0), (0,1,0,0,0), (0, 0,1,0,0)、(0,0,0,1,0)、(0,0,0,0,1);
(3) hidden layer: node in hidden layer is determined using empirical method additional examination survey method, final determination node in hidden layer is 10 Individual.
Neural network algorithm, parameter designing are as follows:
(1) transmission function
Hidden layer transmission function is set to s type tan tansig, functional form:Output layer transmits Function is set to s type logarithmic function logsig, and its functional form is:
(2) error function
For each input sample p, standard error is: e=∑ ep=(∑ (dpj-opj)2)/2
Cumulative network global error:
In formula: opj、dpjRepresent the reality output to p-th input sample output unit j and desired output respectively.K represents Arbitrary sample of m sample centering.
(3) modified weight improves and optimizates.Increase a momentum term in weighed value adjusting, weighed value adjusting vector expression is:
δ w (t)=η δ x+ α δ w (t-1)
In formula, w is certain layer of weight matrix, and x represents certain layer of input vector, and α is factor of momentum, typically has α ∈ (0,1).
Step 4 is further:
Training sample is divided into two parts, as network learning and training sample, another part is as network for a part Test samples;
Set the main training parameter of bp neutral net, including learning rate and factor of momentum;
Initial network connection weight and threshold value generate in interval [0,1] at random;
The end condition of setting network training: error precision and frequency of training;
Using l-m algorithm, the network connection weights between each node layer and threshold value are adjusted, complete using cumulative network Office's error carries out network correction, and input training and test samples are to the described medium and small reservoirs system for evaluating safety bp nerve net of training Network.
Wherein, in literary composition, gra is: grey correlation analysis.Bp is: neutral net.
The preferred embodiment of the present invention described in detail above, but, the present invention is not limited in above-mentioned embodiment Detail, in the range of the technology design of the present invention, multiple equivalents can be carried out to technical scheme, this A little equivalents belong to protection scope of the present invention.
By above-mentioned description, those skilled in the art completely can be in the model without departing from this invention technological thought In enclosing, carry out various change and modification all within protection scope of the present invention.The unaccomplished matter of the present invention, belongs to ability The common knowledge of field technique personnel.

Claims (7)

1. a kind of medium and small reservoirs system for evaluating safety method based on gra-bp neutral net it is characterised in that it include with Lower step:
Step 1: build medium and small reservoirs system for evaluating safety index system, screening affects the main of medium and small reservoirs dam safety Factor, generates medium and small reservoirs system for evaluating safety index system;
Step 2: generate train samples;
Step 3: determine the topological structure of the bp neutral net for safety evaluation;
Step 4: training and inspection bp neutral net;
Step 5: the bp neural network model of performance appraisal that algorithm optimization is determined is used for the evaluation of new case.
2. a kind of medium and small reservoirs system for evaluating safety method based on gra-bp neutral net according to claim 1, It is characterized in that, described step 1 concretely comprises the following steps: according to " system for evaluating safety directive/guide ", in conjunction with medium and small reservoirs dam safety Characteristic carries out primary election to evaluation index, calculates the correlation degree of each primary election index and evaluation result with gray relative analysis method, Index screening is carried out according to index grey relational grade result of calculation, sets up the safety evaluation index body for medium and small reservoirs dam System.
3. a kind of medium and small reservoirs system for evaluating safety method based on gra-bp neutral net according to claim 1, It is characterized in that, described step 2 is further: have collected a number of study and test samples, has carried out evaluation index former The calculating of beginning data and pretreatment.
4. a kind of medium and small reservoirs system for evaluating safety method based on gra-bp neutral net according to claim 1, It is characterized in that, described step 3,4 it is further: set up gra(grey relational analysis)-ann (artificial neural networks) intelligent and safe evaluation model.
5. a kind of medium and small reservoirs system for evaluating safety side based on gra-bp neutral net according to claim 1 or 4 Method is it is characterised in that described step 3 is further: design bp neural network topology structure: how defeated safety evaluation neutral net be Enter the forward-type Three Tiered Network Architecture of multi output, including an input layer, a hidden layer and an output layer, input layer Number is evaluation index number, and output layer nodes are 5, and rule of thumb formula and test determine node in hidden layer.
6. a kind of medium and small reservoirs system for evaluating safety side based on gra-bp neutral net according to claim 1 or 4 Method is it is characterised in that described step 4 is further: determines bp neutral net relevant parameter: hidden layer transmission function adopts s type Tan tansig, output layer transmission function adopts s type logarithmic function logsig;Set the main training ginseng of bp neutral net Number, including learning rate and factor of momentum;Initial network connection weight and threshold value generate in interval [0,1] at random;Set net The end condition of network training: error precision and frequency of training;Using bp neutral net described in l-m Algorithm for Training.
7. a kind of medium and small reservoirs system for evaluating safety method based on gra-bp neutral net according to claim 1, It is characterized in that, described step 5 is further: improves optimization to bp neutral net;Adjust main training parameter, improve net Network training speed;Test samples in sample are substituted into safety evaluation neural network model test.
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CN106769983A (en) * 2016-12-23 2017-05-31 青海大学 A kind of discrimination method of Cordyceps sinensis
CN106991531A (en) * 2017-03-30 2017-07-28 国家电网公司 Power distribution network project construction effect Post-assessment Method based on BP neural network
CN108710752A (en) * 2018-05-17 2018-10-26 西南科技大学 A kind of motor data analysis method based on grey correlation analysis and BP neural network
CN108710752B (en) * 2018-05-17 2022-10-28 西南科技大学 Motor data analysis method based on grey correlation analysis and BP neural network
CN110263911A (en) * 2019-04-30 2019-09-20 福建省水利投资开发集团有限公司 A kind of rock-fill concrete technology fitness feedback regulation method neural network based
CN111582634B (en) * 2020-03-26 2024-02-23 西南交通大学 Multi-factor safety grading method and system for underground large-space construction
CN111582634A (en) * 2020-03-26 2020-08-25 西南交通大学 Multi-factor safety grading method and system for underground large-space construction
WO2021197009A1 (en) * 2020-04-02 2021-10-07 中国长江三峡集团有限公司 Real-time abnormal diagnosis and interpolation method for water regimen monitoring data
GB2601261A (en) * 2020-04-02 2022-05-25 China Three Gorges Corp Real-time abnormal diagnosis and interpolation method for water regimen monitoring data
JP2022541297A (en) * 2020-04-02 2022-09-22 中国長江三峡集団有限公司 Real-time anomaly diagnosis and interpolation method for water environment monitoring data
JP7333862B2 (en) 2020-04-02 2023-08-25 中国長江三峡集団有限公司 Real-time anomaly diagnosis and interpolation method for water environment monitoring data
GB2601261B (en) * 2020-04-02 2024-05-15 China Three Gorges Corp Real-time abnormal diagnosis and interpolation method for water regimen monitoring data
CN111563597B (en) * 2020-05-11 2023-07-04 水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院 Small reservoir engineering quality estimation and accident diagnosis rapid method
CN111563597A (en) * 2020-05-11 2020-08-21 水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院 Method for quickly estimating engineering quality of small reservoir and quickly diagnosing accidents
CN112488466A (en) * 2020-11-13 2021-03-12 中国三峡建设管理有限公司 High arch dam safety collaborative evaluation method and device
CN112434750A (en) * 2020-12-04 2021-03-02 中国电建集团华东勘测设计研究院有限公司 Method for identifying dam monitoring data development pattern based on convolutional neural network
CN112434750B (en) * 2020-12-04 2023-05-16 中国电建集团华东勘测设计研究院有限公司 Dam monitoring data development mode identification method based on convolutional neural network
CN113554222A (en) * 2021-07-19 2021-10-26 中国水利水电科学研究院 Dynamic optimization and intelligent regulation and control configuration method for bonding dam generalized bonding material
CN113554222B (en) * 2021-07-19 2023-11-28 中国水利水电科学研究院 Dynamic optimization and intelligent regulation configuration method for wide-source cementing material of cementing dam

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Application publication date: 20170125