CN106355041B - The method of oil-immersed transformer online monitoring data and the correction of live detection data fusion - Google Patents

The method of oil-immersed transformer online monitoring data and the correction of live detection data fusion Download PDF

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CN106355041B
CN106355041B CN201610971555.XA CN201610971555A CN106355041B CN 106355041 B CN106355041 B CN 106355041B CN 201610971555 A CN201610971555 A CN 201610971555A CN 106355041 B CN106355041 B CN 106355041B
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Abstract

The invention discloses a kind of methods of oil-immersed transformer online monitoring data and the correction of live detection data fusion, and first online monitoring data and live detection data are pre-processed to obtain with time interval is identical and time point mutual corresponding two groups of characteristic gas content-time series;Bayes's hierarchical mode is established further according to on-line monitoring characteristic gas content-time series and live detection characteristic gas content-time series, and Bayes's hierarchical mode is estimated using EM algorithm, obtains hyper parameterAnd parameter vector β=[βof] distribution situation, then β is obtained into Z β multiplied by orthogonal vectors ZfMean value and as missing data replace value, fill into obtained in live detection data fusion correction after transformer station high-voltage side bus data.The transformer station high-voltage side bus data and live detection data estimate that level is roughly the same, and farthest remain the variation tendency of online monitoring data, have accomplished have complementary advantages, have broken online data and the respective limitation of charged data.

Description

The method of oil-immersed transformer online monitoring data and the correction of live detection data fusion
Technical field
The present invention relates to statistical analysis fields, and in particular to a kind of oil-immersed transformer online monitoring data and live detection The method of data fusion correction.
Background technique
Currently, the monitoring means of oil-immersed transformer are divided into two kinds, one is on-line monitoring is used, i.e., composed using infrared survey Instrument remote online monitoring equipment;One is live detection, i.e. professional is sampled detection to transformer oil to scene.Online The monitoring interval of data is short (usually 1 day), and data distribution is more dense, but the problem of due to on-Line Monitor Device itself, Accuracy is still to be tested.Sample detection of the live detection data from professional, accuracy is very high, but the mode of artificial detection Higher cost, therefore detect and be spaced longer (usually at 1 month or more).Online monitoring data can make up for it between live detection data Every length, defect at high cost, live detection data then can the accuracy to online monitoring data carry out certain correction.Cause This, the sequence of a fusion live detection data and online monitoring data can reflect the operation conditions of transformer more in time.
Currently, the integration technology for oil-immersed transformer online monitoring data and live detection data still belongs to academic empty White, coherent signal processing can not use for reference technical experience with DATA REASONING field, we can only be by the correlation of other field Method carries out certain analysis and processing to the problem.Data fusion technique needs have complementary advantages to different data, beat The limitation of broken data itself, such technology is in other field using very extensive.For example, satellite data and ground data merger Technology is exactly a kind of typical data fusion method.So-called satellite data refers to covering satellite with ground data merging techniques The statistics side that the wider real-time observed data of the lid range manual measurement data very sparse with ground coverage mutually merge Method, density and the sparsity of manual measurement data and the characteristic of transformer monitoring data of satellite data are extremely agreed with, therefore, We can use for reference such method, merge to oil-immersed transformer online monitoring data with live detection data.Merge number It can be transformer actual motion according to that can embody online data trend characteristic and embody the accuracy of charged data The monitoring of situation provides accurate data basis in real time.
For the processing technique of existing satellite data and ground data based on merger, many scholars utilize the side of aggregation of data Method integrates two kinds of different data that observation scope greatly differs from each other, as Huffman (Huffman G J, Adler R F, Rudolf B,et al.Global precipitation estimates based on a technique for combining satellite-based estimates,rain gauge analysis,and NWP model Precipitation information [J] .Journal of Climate, 1995,8 (5): 1284-1295.), Arkin (Xie P,Arkin P A.Global precipitation:A17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations,satellite estimates,and numerical model outputs[J] .Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1997,78 (11): 2539.), Adler (Adler R F,Huffman G J,Chang A,et al.The version-2global precipitation climatology project(GPCP)monthly precipitation analysis(1979-present)[J] .Journal of hydrometeorology, 2003,4 (6): 1147-1167.), Lin (Lin A, Wang X L.An algorithm for blending multiple satellite precipitation estimates with in situ precipitation measurements in Canada[J].Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2011,116 (D21)) etc..In these methods, the method for the propositions such as Lin (2011) is current more forward position And a kind of higher aggregation of data method of technical maturity, there is stronger reference, processing step can be simply general It includes are as follows:
(1) set ground data observation sequence as O, satellite data observation sequence is S, satellite data with ground data mutual The data sequence matched is SO, calculate system deviation ratio R=S of satellite dataO/O。
(2) interpolation is carried out to resulting system deviation ratio, obtains the system deviation ratio R for covering whole observation scopesS, And utilize RSSatellite data is modified, revised satellite data S ' is obtained.
(3) interpolation is carried out to ground data, obtains sequence O ' identical with satellite data coverage area.O ', to S ' and O ' It is weighted, the fused data after merger can be obtained.
The method that we can use for reference Lin (2011) is identical as live detection data carry out to transformer online monitoring data Merger processing, but there are following limitations under transformer data scenarios for its method: (1) stability of on-Line Monitor Device is owed Good, live detection data then belong to manual measurement, and the two has certain, random nature measurement error, above-mentioned merger side There is no consider the randomness of data wherein for method.(2) essence of the above method is a kind of interpolation method, and interpolation object is ground Data, thus after merger data trend based on the trend of ground data.And under transformer data scenarios, we are more Wish that fused data can embody the variation tendency of online data, accuracy is in the controlled range of charged data. In conclusion there are still a certain distance for the actual demand of the method for Lin (2011) and transformer data fusion.
Summary of the invention
The present invention provides for oil-immersed transformer online monitoring data and live detection data fusion antidote, melt Close obtained transformer station high-voltage side bus data and live detection data after correction to estimate level roughly the same, and farthest retain The variation tendency of online monitoring data has accomplished have complementary advantages, has broken online data and the respective limitation of charged data.
The present invention provides a kind of oil-immersed transformer online monitoring data and live detection data fusion correction method, Include the following steps:
(1), the content that characteristic gas in oil-immersed transformer oil is obtained by remote online monitoring equipment, is denoted as online prison Measured data;The content that characteristic gas in oil-immersed transformer oil is obtained by manual sampling, is denoted as live detection data;It is right respectively Online monitoring data and live detection data are pre-processed, obtain time point mutual corresponding two groups of characteristic gas content-when Between sequence;
(2), according to on-line monitoring characteristic gas content-time series and live detection characteristic gas content-time series Bayes's hierarchical mode is established, shown in concrete form such as following formula (I):
In formula, Y is the dependent variable of model, if online monitoring data is the random vector Y with complete observationo, electrification Detection data is the random vector Y with a large amount of missing valuesf, random vector Y=[Yo,Yf] obey mean value be Z β, variance isNormal distribution, wherein Z be Fourier transformation parameter, for portraying the fluctuation of fused data;Parameter vector β= [βof], obedience mean value is β0, variance isNormal distribution;It is Θ that parameter vector Σ, which obeys mean value, and variance is δ's GIW distribution;β0, F-1, Θ, δ are hyper parameter;
(3) Bayes's hierarchical mode is estimated using EM algorithm, obtains hyper parameterTo which parameter vector β=[β be calculatedof] distribution situation, then by β multiplied by orthogonal vectors Z obtains Z βfMean value, and select Z βfMean value as missing data replace value, fill into live detection data, thus Transformer station high-voltage side bus data to after online monitoring data and the correction of live detection data fusion.
Preferably, the characteristic gas includes hydrogen, methane, ethane, ethylene, acetylene, total hydrocarbon, one in step (1) Carbonoxide or carbon dioxide;
The content of the characteristic gas is characterized the mass concentration or volumetric concentration of gas.
Preferably, the pretreatment in step (1), to online monitoring data progress are as follows:
With one day for time interval, there is being averaged for multiple data in one day, data are not replaced with linear interpolation;
The pretreatment that live detection data are carried out are as follows:
Also with one day for time interval, there is being averaged for multiple data in one day, not data without being filled up.
On-line monitoring characteristic gas content-time series with complete observation is formd after pretreatment and is existed big Measure live detection characteristic gas content-time series of missing values, live detection characteristic gas content-time series missing values It is replaced with null value.
In step (2), parameter vector Σ, decomposed form is as follows:
Wherein, footmark o represents on-line monitoring data, and footmark f represents live detection data;
It is Θ that parameter vector Σ, which obeys mean value, and the GIW that variance is δ is distributed, and the expanded form of GIW distribution is as follows:
τf=(Σ[o,o])-1Σ[o,f]
Γf[f,f][f,o][o,o])-1Σ[o,f]
Γo[o,o]
Wherein, random vector τf, ΓfWith ΓoDistribution situation it is as follows:
If Θ={ Ω, τ0,H0fo, δ={ δfo, then β0, F-1, Θ, δ are hyper parameter, are denoted asAbove-mentioned random vector and parameter vector constitute online monitoring data and melt with live detection data The major architectural of molding type.
After establishing corresponding data model, it would be desirable to estimate the parameter of model.Due in model at random to Measure Yf(live detection sequence) there are a large amount of missing datas, we estimate model using EM algorithm accordingly.EM (Expectation-Maximization) algorithm is one for estimating the common method of missing data and latent variable, is divided into E- Step and M-Step two parts, detailed process is as follows:
(a)E-Step
According to maximum likelihood estimate, the likelihood function Q of model is
When known to the observation of Y, above-mentioned likelihood function can be maximized, to acquire hyper parameterValue, however it is existing (online monitoring data Y known to Y portion in real situationoIt is known that live detection data YfKnown to part), therefore, by known part (the on-line monitoring whole observations of characteristic gas-time series and the observation of known live detection characteristic gas-time series Value) it is set as D, and assign hyper parameter vectorOne value,According to given data D and parameter vector, we can count Calculation obtains the desired value of unknown data, and constructs new likelihood function using obtained desired value
(b)M-Step
To new likelihood function derivation, maximizeObtain hyper parameter valueIt willAs new E-Step is substituted into, until likelihood function value Q restrains to get the hyper parameter in the case of there is the charged data largely lacked
In step (3), hyper parameter is utilizedParameter vector β=[β is calculatedof] distribution situation, specifically:
Hyper parameter is obtained after being computedTo obtain βo, i.e. parameter vector β=[βof] Mean value, so that parameter vector β=[β be calculatedof] distribution situation.
Compared with prior art, this method is using Bayes's hierarchical mode and EM algorithm (EM algorithm) to online prison Measured data and live detection data carry out fusion treatment, it is advantageous that:
(1) Bayes's hierarchical mode has very strong advantage based on probability statistics in terms of portraying data randomness.
(2) EM algorithm has innate advantage in terms of filling up missing data, meanwhile, this method becomes by evidence of online data Amount, resulting fused data can preferably embody the variation tendency of online data.
Therefore, fusion antidote provided by the invention provides one more for transformer online data and charged data Science is reliable, meets actual fusion correction solution, the transformer station high-voltage side bus data and live detection data obtained after fusion correction Estimate horizontal roughly the same, and farthest remain the variation tendency of online monitoring data, accomplished have complementary advantages, beaten Online data and the respective limitation of charged data are broken.
Detailed description of the invention
Density of hydrogen-the time graph, live detection monitored on-line in certain oil-immersed transformer are set forth in Fig. 1 Density of hydrogen-the time graph obtained after density of hydrogen-time graph, and fusion correction;
Density of hydrogen-the time graph, live detection monitored on-line in certain oil-immersed transformer are set forth in Fig. 2 Density of hydrogen-the time graph obtained after density of hydrogen-time graph, and fusion correction;
Density of hydrogen-the time graph, live detection monitored on-line in certain oil-immersed transformer are set forth in Fig. 3 Density of hydrogen-the time graph obtained after density of hydrogen-time graph, and fusion correction;
Density of hydrogen-the time graph, live detection monitored on-line in certain oil-immersed transformer are set forth in Fig. 4 Density of hydrogen-time graph, and using the density of hydrogen-time graph obtained after distinct methods fusion correction;Wherein, upper figure The middle fusion antidote using in the present invention, existing aggregation of data method is used in the following figure.
Specific embodiment
Embodiment 1
We are with speaking frankly bright online monitoring data proposed by the present invention and live detection data fusion for following example The effect of antidote.
Firstly, obtaining the concentration of hydrogen in certain oil-immersed transformer oil by remote online monitoring equipment, it is denoted as online prison Measured data;The concentration that hydrogen in oil-immersed transformer oil is obtained by manual sampling, is denoted as live detection data;To on-line monitoring Data are pre-processed with live detection data, keep the time interval of online monitoring data identical, are 1 day, monitor number on-line It is corresponded according to the time point of live detection data.The case where for online monitoring data missing, take the side of linear interpolation Method fills up online monitoring data, ultimately forms on-line monitoring characteristic gas content-time with complete observation Sequence and live detection characteristic gas content-time series with a large amount of missing values.
After completing corresponding data prediction, it would be desirable to establish the shellfish for being directed to online monitoring data and live detection data This hierarchical mode of leaf, concrete form are as follows:
In above formula, Y is the dependent variable of model, if online monitoring data is the random vector Y with complete observationo, band Electro-detection number is the random vector Y with a large amount of missing valuesf, random vector Y=[Yo,Yf] obey mean value be Z β, variance isNormal distribution, wherein Z is Fourier transformation parameter, for portraying the fluctuation of fused data, parameter vector β= [βof, obedience mean value is β0, variance isNormal distribution.
For parameter vector Σ, decomposed form is as follows:
It is Θ that parameter vector Σ, which obeys mean value, and the GIW that variance is δ is distributed, and the expanded form of GIW distribution is as follows:
Definition:
τf=(Σ[o,o])-1Σ[o, f ]
Γf[ f, f ]F, o][o,o])-1Σ[o,f]
Γo[o,o]
Wherein, random vector τf, ΓfWith ΓoDistribution situation it is as follows:
If Θ={ Ω, τ0,H0fo, δ={ δf, δ o }, then β0, F-1, Θ, δ are hyper parameter, are denoted asAbove-mentioned random vector and parameter vector constitute online data and charged data Fusion Model Major architectural.
After establishing corresponding data model, it would be desirable to estimate the parameter of model.Due in model at random to Measure Yf(live detection sequence) there are a large amount of missing datas, we estimate model using EM algorithm accordingly.EM (Expectation-Maximization) algorithm is one for estimating the common method of missing data and latent variable, is divided into E- Step and M-Step two parts, detailed process is as follows:
(1)E-Step(Expectation)
According to maximum likelihood estimate, the likelihood function Q of model is
When known to the observation of Y, above-mentioned likelihood function can be maximized, to acquire hyper parameterValue, however it is existing (online monitoring data Y known to Y portion in real situationoIt is known that live detection data YfKnown to part), therefore, by known part (the on-line monitoring whole observations of characteristic gas-time series and the observation of known live detection characteristic gas-time series Value) it is set as D, and assign hyper parameter vectorOne value,According to given data D and parameter vectorWe can count Calculation obtains the desired value of unknown data, and constructs new likelihood function using obtained desired value
(2)M-Step(Maximization)
To new likelihood function derivation, maximizeObtain hyper parameter valueIt willAs new E-Step is substituted into, until likelihood function value Q restrains to get the hyper parameter in the case of there is the charged data largely lacked
Estimate the hyper parameter of Bayes's hierarchical modeAfterwards, parameter vector β=[β that we obtainof] distribution Situation, meanwhile, in order to preferably portray the fluctuation situation of data, we carry out corresponding orthogonal transformation to β, multiplied by orthogonal vectors Machine Z, finally having estimated mean value is Z βfThe charged data random vector Y containing a large amount of missing valuesf, wherein parameter betafContain On-line checking data YoPartial information.Under normal conditions, our selection parameter Z βfMean value as missing data replace value, Transformer station high-voltage side bus data after foring online monitoring data and the correction of live detection data fusion.
As shown in fig. 1, fused correction data and the level of charged data are close, ensure that the accuracy of data, It is very close with the variation tendency of online data simultaneously, the advantages of having merged the two.
Embodiment 2~3
Using fusion antidote in the same manner as in Example 1, density of hydrogen-time graph for being obtained after fusion correction and Density of hydrogen-time graph of on-line monitoring and density of hydrogen-time graph of live detection are shown in Fig. 2, Fig. 3 respectively.
Embodiment 4
Using fusion antidote in the same manner as in Example 1, density of hydrogen-time graph for being obtained after fusion correction and Density of hydrogen-time graph of on-line monitoring and density of hydrogen-time graph of live detection are shown in upper figure in Fig. 4.
Comparative example
Based on online monitoring data and live detection data in embodiment 4, by Bayes's hierarchical mode with it is existing Aggregation of data method (with reference to the method in Lin (2011)), which combines, obtains density of hydrogen-time graph of one group of fusion correction, sees The following figure in Fig. 4.
Figure 4, it is seen that existing aggregation of data method is similar to the interpolation processing to charged data, number after fusion According to trend tightened around charged data, the variation tendencies for not embodying online data well.Using in the present invention Fusion antidote make fused data and charged data to estimate level roughly the same, and farthest remain The variation tendency (fused data and the trend of online data are very consistent) of online data has really been accomplished have complementary advantages, has been beaten Online data and the respective limitation of charged data are broken.

Claims (6)

1. a kind of method of oil-immersed transformer online monitoring data and the correction of live detection data fusion, which is characterized in that packet Include following steps:
(1), the content that characteristic gas in oil-immersed transformer oil is obtained by remote online monitoring equipment, is denoted as on-line monitoring number According to;The content that characteristic gas in oil-immersed transformer oil is obtained by manual sampling, is denoted as live detection data;Respectively to online Monitoring data and live detection data are pre-processed, and time point mutual corresponding two groups of characteristic gas content-time sequence is obtained Column;
(2), it is established according to on-line monitoring characteristic gas content-time series and live detection characteristic gas content-time series Bayes's hierarchical mode, shown in concrete form such as following formula (I):
In formula,For the dependent variable of model, if online monitoring data is the random vector with complete observation, live detection Data are the random vector with a large amount of missing values, random vectorObeying mean value is, variance be's Normal distribution, whereinFor Fourier transformation parameter, for portraying the fluctuation of fused data;Parameter vector, clothes It is from mean value, variance isNormal distribution;Parameter vectorObeying mean value is, variance isGIW distribution;,,,It is hyper parameter;
(3) Bayes's hierarchical mode is estimated using EM algorithm, obtains hyper parameter, thus Parameter vector is calculatedDistribution situation, then willMultiplied by orthogonal vectors, obtainMean value, and selectMean value as missing data replace value, fill into live detection data, thus obtain online monitoring data with electric-examination Transformer station high-voltage side bus data after measured data fusion correction.
2. the side of oil-immersed transformer online monitoring data according to claim 1 and the correction of live detection data fusion Method, which is characterized in that in step (1), the characteristic gas includes hydrogen, ethylene, carbon monoxide or carbon dioxide;
The content of the characteristic gas includes the mass concentration or volumetric concentration of characteristic gas.
3. the side of oil-immersed transformer online monitoring data according to claim 1 and the correction of live detection data fusion Method, which is characterized in that the pretreatment in step (1), to online monitoring data progress are as follows:
With one day for time interval, there is being averaged for multiple data in one day, data are not replaced with linear interpolation;
The pretreatment that live detection data are carried out are as follows:
Also with one day for time interval, there is being averaged for multiple data in one day, not data without being filled up.
4. the side of oil-immersed transformer online monitoring data according to claim 1 and the correction of live detection data fusion Method, which is characterized in that in step (2), parameter vector, decomposed form is as follows:
Wherein, footmark o represents on-line monitoring data, and footmark f represents live detection data;
Parameter vectorObeying mean value is, variance isGIW distribution, GIW distribution expanded form it is as follows:
Wherein, random vector,WithDistribution situation it is as follows:
If,, then,,,It is hyper parameter, is denoted as
5. the side of oil-immersed transformer online monitoring data according to claim 1 and the correction of live detection data fusion Method, which is characterized in that in step (3), using EM algorithm to Bayes's hierarchical mode carry out estimation be divided into E-Step and M-Step two parts, detailed process is as follows:
(a) E-Step
According to maximum likelihood estimate, the likelihood function Q of model is
Known part is set as, and assign hyper parameter vectorOne value,;According to given dataAnd parameter vector , the desired value of unknown data can be calculated in we, and constructs new likelihood function using obtained desired value
(b) M-Step
To new likelihood function derivation, maximize, obtain hyper parameter value, willAs newSubstitute into E- Step, until likelihood function value Q restrains to get the hyper parameter in the case of there is the charged data largely lacked
6. the side of oil-immersed transformer online monitoring data according to claim 1 and the correction of live detection data fusion Method, which is characterized in that in step (3), utilize hyper parameterParameter vector is calculatedDistribution situation, specifically Are as follows:
Hyper parameter is obtained after being computed, to obtain, i.e. parameter vectorMean value, from And parameter vector is calculatedDistribution situation.
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