CN106354985A - Power distribution system reliability assessment method considering distributed power supply - Google Patents
Power distribution system reliability assessment method considering distributed power supply Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a power distribution system reliability assessment method considering a distributed power supply. The power distribution system reliability assessment method is characterized by comprising the following steps: S1, establishing an output power probability model of the distributed power supply; S2, establishing a load time-sequence dynamic model; S3, calculating the successful operation probability of an island based on the output power probability model of the distributed power supply and the load time-sequence dynamic model in the island; S4, for load points in the island, acquiring the reliability index of second-class load points according to the successful operation probability of the island and a minimum path method after improvement; and S5, acquiring the reliability index of first-class load points, acquiring system reliability index according to the reliability index of the first-class load points and the reliability index of the second-class load points, and carrying out assessment on power distribution system reliability according to the system reliability index. According to the power distribution system reliability assessment method, the actual power output level and load dynamic characteristics of the distributed power supply can be reflected, and the island operation manner of a power distribution system is sufficiently considered, so that the actual operation condition of a power grid is met, and the method is suitable for the power distribution system reliability assessment containing the distributed power supply.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to reliability evaluation field, more particularly, it is related to a kind of consideration distributed power source
Evaluation Method of Distribution Systems Reliability.
Background technology
Distribution system is located at the end of whole power system, is directly connected with user, is impact electrical network power supply reliability
Important step, and count and show that most of power outage is all the therefore distribution Power System Reliability because distribution side fault causes
Assessment is all widely paid close attention to all the time.
In recent years, distributed power source (distributed generation, dg) relies on its efficient, flexible, environmental friendliness
The features such as accessed more and more in distribution system, distribution system becomes many power supplys and load by single power supply radiant type network
The network of interconnection, network structure has a very large change；Meanwhile, the access of distributed power source greatly affects distribution system
The method of operation so as to more complicated and changeable.Therefore, the access of distributed power source proposes newly to distribution system reliability evaluation
Challenge, be badly in need of a kind of Evaluation Method of Distribution Systems Reliability being applied to containing distributed power source.
In prior art, the method with regard to reliability evaluation is broadly divided into two big class: simulation method and analytic method.
Simulation method, based on the simulation method of model Carlow, needs to consider the time sequence status of all elements (including dg), elapsed time is long, meter
Calculate result not accurate enough；With fault mode consequences analysis method as representative in analytic method, thinking is simple, and result of calculation accurately, but is led to
Often be only applicable to the radial distribution system of single supply, or only considered the situation after invariable power dg accesses distribution system it is difficult to
The undulatory property of reflection load and the actual level of exerting oneself of dissimilar dg.
Content of the invention
For the defect of prior art, it is an object of the invention to provide a kind of distribution system considering distributed power source can
By property appraisal procedure it is intended to solve elapsed time length in prior art, result of calculation is forbidden and is difficult to reflect the fluctuation of load
Property and the problem of the actual level of exerting oneself of dissimilar dg.
The invention provides a kind of Evaluation Method of Distribution Systems Reliability considering distributed power source, comprise the steps:
S1: set up distributed power source output power probabilistic model；
S2: set up load time-series dynamics model；
S3: based on distributed power source output power probabilistic model in isolated island and load time-series dynamics model, calculate isolated island and become
Work(runs probability；
S4: for the load point in isolated island, obtain second according to the minimal path method after isolated island successful operation probability and improvement
Type load point reliability index；
S5: obtain first kind load point reliability index, and born according to first kind load point reliability index and Equations of The Second Kind
Lotus point reliability index obtains Reliability Index, according to Reliability Index, distribution Power System Reliability is estimated；
Wherein, described first kind load point reliability index refers to load point reliability index in traditional distribution system,
Isolated island internal loading point reliability index in the distribution system that described Equations of The Second Kind load point reliability index refers to containing distributed power source.
Further, in step s1, described distributed power source output power probabilistic model includes: traditional distributed electricity
Source output probabilistic model and renewable distributed power source output power probabilistic model；Described traditional distributed power supply output work
Rate probabilistic model includes: when power failure, output is 0, and corresponding probability is unit forced outage rate for；Work as power supply
During normal work, output is unit rated power prated, corresponding probability is (1-for)；Described renewable distributed electrical
Source output probabilistic model includes:Wherein, p (v) is output, and v is wind speed,
vci、vrAnd vcoIt is respectively incision wind speed, rated wind speed and cut-out wind speed；pratedFor rated power.
Further, in step s2, described load time-series dynamics model includes: l (t)=lypwpdph(t)；Wherein,
L (t) is the load of load point t hour, lyYear load peak for load point；pwFor value each on all load curves and year load
The ratio of peak value；pdRatio for value each on daily load curve and all load peaks；phEach value and day on load curve when () is t
The ratio of load peak.
Further, in step s3, the condition of isolated island successful operation includes: (3.1) only have side in isolated island distributed
The output of power supply is more than or is equal to workload demand, just can carry out islet operation operation；(3.2) arbitrary distributed in isolated island
Power failure, islet operation failure；(3.3) distributed power source can give island internal loading before and after islet operation incessantly
Power supply.
Further, described isolated island successful operation probabilityIts
In,Represent that the combination of the be possible to running status of all loads and distributed power source in isolated island is total
Number；ndRepresent that in isolated island, all loads are counted out；ngRepresent all distributed power source numbers in isolated island；Represent i-th in isolated island
The load level number of degrees of individual load point；Represent the output number of degrees of j-th distributed power source in isolated islandWithPoint
Do not represent the total load amount size of all loads in isolated island under s-th assembled state and the gross output of all distributed power sources
Size；ρgRepresent the fault rate of g-th distributed power source in isolated island；Represent s-th
The probability of assembled state.
Further, in step s4, also comprised the steps: before using improved minimal path method
Ask for each load point to the minimal path of main power source, elements all in system are divided into element on minimal path and non-
Element on minimal path, obtains minimum circuit component collection and non-minimum circuit component collection.
Scope is divided according to isolated island and judges load vertex type, the outer load point for isolated island, according to traditional minimal path method meter
Calculate its reliability index；For isolated island internal loading point, calculate its reliability index according to improved minimal path method.
Further, improved minimal path method meets following principle:
Element treatment principle on minimal path:
Principle 1: if the element on minimal path is in the range of plan isolated island, then this element fault, in isolated island, dg is automatic
Out of service, element fault causes the power failure of load point, and power off time is the fault correction time of element；
Principle 2: if the element on minimal path plan isolated island scope outside, then this element fault, isolated island chopper and
Dependent control element auto-action, isolated island can be formed with certain probability and run.If isolated island successful operation, negative in isolated island
Lotus point is powered by dg, and element fault does not affect on the power supply reliability of load point；If islet operation failure, negative in isolated island
Lotus point has a power failure, and power off time is element fault repair time；
Element treatment principle on non-minimum road:
Principle 3: the load branch circuit element being located for non-load point, its head end is equipped with fuse, the unit on load branch circuit
Part fault, fuse fuses automatically, and load point reliability is unaffected；
Principle 4: for the non-minimum circuit component on main feeder and branch feeder, break in the upstream finding its nearest neighbours respectively
Road device and upstream disconnecting switch, further according to the shadow to load point reliability for the position judgment element fault of chopper and disconnecting switch
Ring；
Principle 4.1: if chopper is not on load point minimal path, element fault causes chopper automatically to disconnect, bears
Lotus point reliability is unaffected；
Principle 4.2: if chopper is on load point minimal path, disconnecting switch not on load point minimal path, then element
The impact reference principle 2 to load point reliability for the fault, after difference is islet operation failure, load point power off time is
The isolator operation time；
Principle 4.3: if on load point minimal path and disconnecting switch is also on load point minimal path, element for chopper
The impact reference principle 2 to load point reliability for the fault.
Further, described Equations of The Second Kind load point reliability index includes: the fault rate of j-th load point in isolated island
λj, year power off time ujWith average fault outage time γj；Wherein, λj=ρsoλj'+(1-ρso)λj", uj=ρsou'j+(1-ρso)
u”j, γj=uj/λj, λj、uj、γjIt is respectively the fault rate of j-th load point in isolated island, year power off time, mean failure rate power failure
Time；λ'j、u'jThe fault rate of j-th load point and year power off time in isolated island when being respectively isolated island successful operation；λ”j、u”j
The fault rate of j-th load point and year power off time in isolated island when being respectively islet operation failure；ρsoGeneral for isolated island successful operation
Rate.
Further, described Reliability Index includes: system System average interruption frequency index s aifi, system are average
Power off time index s aidi and average power supply reliability index asai；Wherein,
nlpCount out n for loadiFor being connected to the number of users of load point i；λiFault rate for load point i；uiFor load
The year power off time of point i.
The invention provides a kind of Evaluation Method of Distribution Systems Reliability of the consideration distributed power source based on analytic method.Logical
Cross the power generation characteristics studying various distributed power sources, establish the output probabilistic model of dissimilar distributed power source, relatively
For accurately reflecting the actual level of exerting oneself of dissimilar distributed power source；Establish load time-series dynamics model, reflect
The wave characteristic of actual electric network load；On this basis, calculate isolated island successful operation probability, and introduce improved minimal path and calculate
Method, calculates distribution Power System Reliability index, and result is accurate.Carried appraisal procedure can reflect the actual water of exerting oneself of distributed power source
Gentle dynamic load characteristic, and taken into full account distribution system decoupled mode, meet electrical network practical operation situation it is adaptable to
Reliability evaluation containing distributed power source.
Brief description
Fig. 1 is the Evaluation Method of Distribution Systems Reliability flow chart considering distributed power source；
Fig. 2 is Wind turbines output and wind speed graph of relation；
Fig. 3 is year sequential load chart；
Fig. 4 is the reliability evaluation flow chart improving minimal path method.
Specific embodiment
In order that the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention become more apparent, below in conjunction with drawings and Examples, right
The present invention is further elaborated.It should be appreciated that specific embodiment described herein is only in order to explain the present invention, and
It is not used in the restriction present invention.
A kind of Evaluation Method of Distribution Systems Reliability of consideration distributed power source based on analytic method that the present invention provides, bag
Include step:
I, set up distributed power source output power probabilistic model；
Ii, set up load time-series dynamics model；
Iii, based on distributed power source output power probabilistic model and load time-series dynamics model in isolated island, calculate isolated island and become
Work(runs probability；
Iv, for the load point in isolated island, the minimal path method according to isolated island successful operation probability and after improving obtains second
Type load point reliability index；
V, acquisition first kind load point reliability index, and according to first kind load point reliability index and the second type load
Point reliability index obtains Reliability Index, according to Reliability Index, distribution Power System Reliability is estimated；
Wherein, described Equations of The Second Kind load point reliability index refers to isolated island internal loading in the distribution system containing distributed power source
Point reliability index；Described first kind load point reliability index refers to load point reliability index in traditional distribution system；
Dg output probabilistic model in step i includes traditional dg (as diesel generating set) output probability mould
Type and renewable dg (as Wind turbines) output probabilistic model；Wherein, traditional distributed output power of power supply probabilistic model,
Meter and unit forced outage rate and unit rated power, are a kind of two State- output power modules；Renewable distributed power source
Output power model, has considered regenerative resource probability distribution and distributed power source output power characteristic, is a kind of many shapes
State output power model.
Load time-series dynamics model in step ii is year sequential load model, and the load of load point t hour is expressed as:
L (t)=lypwpdph(t)；In formula: lyYear load peak for load point；pwFor value each on all load curves and year load peak
Ratio；pdRatio for value each on daily load curve and all load peaks；phEach value and daily load on load curve when () is t
The ratio of peak value；On this basis, using clustering technique, load level is divided into some grades, obtains the negative of different load grade
Lotus level and corresponding probability.
The condition of the isolated island successful operation described in step iii includes: (1) only has the output of dg to be more than or be equal to load
Demand, just can carry out islet operation operation；(2) in isolated island, arbitrary dg breaks down, then islet operation failure；(3) power distribution system
During the normal operation of system, the load in original plan isolated island can be powered by main power source and dg simultaneously, when distribution system breaks down, dg
Can power to island internal loading incessantly before and after islet operation.
Improvement minimal path algorithm described in step iv is it is adaptable to calculate isolated island internal loading point reliability index, negative dividing
On the basis of lotus point minimum circuit component collection and non-minimum circuit component collection, respectively on the element and non-minimum road on analysis minimal path
The impact to load point reliability for the element fault, then these impacts are added up, obtain the reliability of each load point in isolated island
Index.
When in traditional distribution system described in step v, load point reliability index includes fault rate λ, mean failure rate has a power failure
Between γ and year power off time u, Reliability Index includes system System average interruption frequency index (saifi), system averagely has a power failure
Time index (saidi), average power supply reliability index (asai) etc..
In order to further describe the reliability evaluation of the consideration distributed power source of present invention offer in detail
Method, in conjunction with accompanying drawing and instantiation, details are as follows:
As shown in Figure 1 it is considered to the Evaluation Method of Distribution Systems Reliability flow chart of distributed power source, comprise the following steps:
Step one: set up distributed power source output power probabilistic model；
Step 2: set up load time-series dynamics model；
Step 3: based on distributed power source output power probabilistic model and load time-series dynamics model, calculate isolated island success
Run probability；
Step 4: for the load point in isolated island, obtained according to the minimal path method after isolated island successful operation probability and improvement
Isolated island internal loading point reliability index；
Step 5: obtain first kind load point reliability index, and according to first kind load point reliability index and second
Type load point reliability index obtains Reliability Index, according to Reliability Index, distribution Power System Reliability is commented
Estimate；
Wherein, Equations of The Second Kind load point reliability index refers to that in the distribution system containing distributed power source, isolated island internal loading point can
By property index；First kind load point reliability index refers to load point reliability index in traditional distribution system.
In step one, set up distributed power source output power probabilistic model:
Distributed power source is divided into traditional distributed power supply and renewable distributed power source two class by the present invention, is respectively directed to two
Class distributed power source sets up its output probabilistic model.
(1) traditional dg model
Traditional distributed power supply (as diesel-driven generator, miniature gas turbine etc.), with fossil energy as fuel, is exerted oneself stable
And continuously adjustabe, characterize its output with two state generator models: when power failure, output is 0, corresponding general
Rate is unit forced outage rate for；When power supply normal work, output is unit rated power prated, corresponding probability
For (1-for).
(2) renewable dg model
The output of renewable distributed power source (as wind-power electricity generation, photovoltaic generation etc.) and renewable energy source model are close
Correlation, present invention primarily contemplates the renewable dg output being representative with wind-power electricity generation (wind turbine generator, wtg)
Power module, determines that two big principal elements of wtg output are: the characteristics of output power of wind speed profile and selected blower fan is bent
Line.
Wind speed profile model adopts Weibull distribution model, and Weibull probability density function expression formula is:In formula: k=(σ/vm)-1.086, referred to as form parameter；C=vm/ γ (1+1/k), referred to as ratio
Parameter；vmRepresent average and the standard deviation of wind speed with σ respectively.
The characteristics of output power curve of wtg describes the output of blower fan and the relation property of wind speed, can be by blower fan
Rated power, cuts wind speed, the parameter characterization such as rated wind speed and cut-out wind speed, Wind turbines output and wind speed relation curve
As shown in Figure 2.
Can obtain the relational expression of wtg output p (v) and wind speed v according to Fig. 2:In formula: vci、vrAnd vcoIt is respectively incision wind speed, rated wind speed and cut-out wind speed；
pratedFor rated power.
Because wind speed constant interval is very big, the present invention replaces real-time wind speed to be analyzed with hourly average wind speed, by 1m/s
Interval wind speed is divided into some grades, the characteristics of output power further according to blower fan and local wind speed profile situation, obtain
The output state of wtg and corresponding probability.
The rated output power of certain wtg is 1mw, and incision wind speed is 4m/s, and rated wind speed is 14m/s, and cut-out wind speed is
25m/s, local mean wind speed is 10.0643m/s, and standard deviation is 4.8426m/s, then this wtg output probabilistic model is such as
Shown in table 1.
Table 1 wtg output probabilistic model
In step 2, set up load time-series dynamics model:
Load model of the present invention adopt year sequential load model, year sequential load chart as shown in Figure 3.Load point t
Load l (t) of hour is expressed as: l (t)=lypwpdph(t)；In formula: lyYear load peak for load point；pwBent for all loads
The ratio of each value and year load peak on line；pdRatio for value each on daily load curve and all load peaks；ph(t) for when negative
The ratio of each value and daily load peak value on lotus curve；On the basis of sequential load model, using clustering technique by load level
It is divided into some grades, obtain the load level of different load grade and corresponding probability.
In step 3, based on distributed power source output power probabilistic model and load time-series dynamics model, calculate isolated island and become
Work(runs probability；
The condition of isolated island successful operation includes: (1) only has the output of dg to be more than or be equal to workload demand, just can enter
Row islet operation operates；(2) in isolated island, arbitrary dg breaks down, then islet operation failure；(3) when distribution system is normally run,
Load in original plan isolated island can be powered by main power source and dg simultaneously, and when distribution system breaks down, dg is before islet operation
After can power to island internal loading incessantly.
Isolated island successful operation probability ρsoComputing formula is:Formula
In:Represent the combination sum of the be possible to running status of all loads and dg in isolated island；ndRepresent
In isolated island, all loads are counted out；ngRepresent all dg numbers in isolated island；Represent the load level of i-th load point in isolated island
Number of degrees；Represent the output number of degrees of j-th dg in isolated island；ρgRepresent the fault rate of g-th dg in isolated island；Represent the probability of s-th assembled state；Represent isolated island under s-th assembled state
The gross output size of interior all dg, related to wtg output p (v) in step one, Represent s
In isolated island under individual assembled state, the total load amount size of all loads, related to load l (t) of load point in step 2,
In step 4, for the load point in isolated island, obtained according to the minimal path method after isolated island successful operation probability and improvement
Obtain Equations of The Second Kind load point reliability index；
Isolated island internal loading point reliability in the distribution system that Equations of The Second Kind load point reliability index refers to containing distributed power source
Index, Equations of The Second Kind load point reliability index is determined by following formula: λj=ρsoλj'+(1-ρso)λj", uj=ρsou'j+(1-ρso)u”j,
γj=uj/λj；In formula: λj、uj、γjIt is respectively the fault rate of j-th load point, year power off time, mean failure rate in isolated island to stop
The electric time；λ'j、u'jThe fault rate of j-th load point and year power off time in isolated island when being respectively isolated island successful operation；λj”、
u”jThe fault rate of j-th load point and year power off time in isolated island when being respectively islet operation failure；ρsoFor isolated island successful operation
Probability.
In embodiments of the present invention, the minimal path method basic thought after improvement is:
(1) first, ask for each load point to the minimal path of main power source, elements all in system are divided on minimal path
Element on element and non-minimum road, obtains minimum circuit component collection and non-minimum circuit component collection.
(2) scope is divided according to isolated island and judge load vertex type, the outer load point for isolated island, according to traditional minimal path method
Calculate its reliability index；For isolated island internal loading point, calculate its reliability index according to following improved method.
The concrete calculating process of traditional minimal path method may refer to " the distribution network reliability rapid evaluation based on minimal path
Method, Electric Power Automation Equipment, Dai Wenxia ".
Wherein, for the element treatment principle on minimal path:
Principle 1: if the element on minimal path is in the range of plan isolated island, then this element fault, in isolated island, dg is automatic
Out of service, element fault causes the power failure of load point, and power off time is the fault correction time of element.
Principle 2: if the element on minimal path plan isolated island scope outside, then this element fault, isolated island chopper and
Dependent control element auto-action, isolated island can be formed with certain probability and run.If isolated island successful operation, negative in isolated island
Lotus point is powered by dg, and element fault does not affect on the power supply reliability of load point；If islet operation failure, negative in isolated island
Lotus point has a power failure, and power off time is element fault repair time.
Wherein, for the element treatment principle on non-minimum road:
Principle 3: the load branch circuit element being located for non-load point, its head end is equipped with fuse, the unit on load branch circuit
Part fault, fuse fuses automatically, and load point reliability is unaffected.
Principle 4: for the non-minimum circuit component on main feeder and branch feeder, break in the upstream finding its nearest neighbours respectively
Road device and upstream disconnecting switch, further according to the shadow to load point reliability for the position judgment element fault of chopper and disconnecting switch
Ring.
Principle 4.1: if chopper is not on load point minimal path, element fault causes chopper automatically to disconnect, bears
Lotus point reliability is unaffected.
Principle 4.2: if chopper is on load point minimal path, disconnecting switch not on load point minimal path, then element
The impact reference principle 2 to load point reliability for the fault, after difference is islet operation failure, load point power off time is
The isolator operation time.
Principle 4.3: if on load point minimal path and disconnecting switch is also on load point minimal path, element for chopper
The impact reference principle 2 to load point reliability for the fault.
In embodiments of the present invention, the reliability evaluation flow chart of improved minimal path method is as shown in Figure 4.
Step 5, obtains first kind load point reliability index, and according to first kind load point reliability index and second
Type load point reliability index obtains Reliability Index, according to Reliability Index, distribution Power System Reliability is commented
Estimate；
Wherein, first kind load point reliability index refers to load point reliability index in traditional distribution system,
Distribution Power System Reliability index includes load point reliability index and two aspects of Reliability Index, the first kind
Load point reliability index includes fault rate, mean failure rate power off time and year power off time, and computing formula is as follows:γi=ui/λi；In formula: λi,k、γi,kRepresent influential on load point i reliability respectively
The fault rate of element k and fault correction time；λi、ui、γiRepresent that the fault rate of outer i-th load point of isolated island, year have a power failure respectively
Time, mean failure rate power off time；N represents the influential component number on load point i reliability.
Reliability Index includes system System average interruption frequency index (saifi), system average power off time index
(saidi) and average power supply reliability index (asai), computing formula is as follows:
In formula: nlpCount out n for loadiFor being connected to the number of users of load point i；λiFault rate for load point i；ui
Year power off time for load point i.
The invention provides a kind of Evaluation Method of Distribution Systems Reliability considering distributed power source, by studying inhomogeneity
The power generation characteristics of type distributed power source, establish the output probabilistic model of distributed power source it is considered to actual electric network load ripple
Dynamic characteristic, establishes load time-series dynamics model, on this basis, calculates isolated island successful operation probability, and introduces improved
Minimal path algorithm, calculates distribution Power System Reliability index, have evaluated system reliability, and carried appraisal procedure can reflect distribution
Formula power supply actual exert oneself level and dynamic load characteristic, and taken into full account distribution system decoupled mode, more meet engineering
Reality is it is adaptable to contain the reliability evaluation of distributed power source.
Finally it should be noted that: above content is made for the present invention more detailed by specific embodiment
Illustrate, and it is not intended that the present invention be embodied as be limited only to these explanations.For a person skilled in the art,
On the premise of without departing from present inventive concept, some simple modifications made and replacement, broadly fall into the protection model of the present invention
Enclose.
Claims (9)
1. a kind of Evaluation Method of Distribution Systems Reliability considering distributed power source is it is characterised in that comprise the steps:
S1: set up distributed power source output power probabilistic model；
S2: set up load time-series dynamics model；
S3: based on distributed power source output power probabilistic model in isolated island and load time-series dynamics model, calculate isolated island and successfully transport
Row probability；
S4: for the load point in isolated island, Equations of The Second Kind is obtained according to the minimal path method after isolated island successful operation probability and improvement and bears
Lotus point reliability index；
S5: obtain first kind load point reliability index, and according to first kind load point reliability index and Equations of The Second Kind load point
Reliability index obtains Reliability Index, according to Reliability Index, distribution Power System Reliability is estimated；
Wherein, described first kind load point reliability index refers to load point reliability index in traditional distribution system, described
Isolated island internal loading point reliability index in the distribution system that Equations of The Second Kind load point reliability index refers to containing distributed power source.
2. Evaluation Method of Distribution Systems Reliability as claimed in claim 1 is it is characterised in that in step s1, described distribution
Formula output power of power supply probabilistic model includes: traditional distributed output power of power supply probabilistic model and renewable distributed power source are defeated
Go out power probability model；
Described traditional distributed output power of power supply probabilistic model includes: when power failure, output is 0, corresponding general
Rate is unit forced outage rate for；When power supply normal work, output is unit rated power prated, corresponding probability
For (1-for)；
Described renewable distributed power source output power probabilistic model includes:Wherein, p
V () is output, v is wind speed, vci、vrAnd vcoIt is respectively incision wind speed, rated wind speed and cut-out wind speed；pratedFor specified
Power.
3. Evaluation Method of Distribution Systems Reliability as claimed in claim 1 or 2 is it is characterised in that in step s2, described negative
Lotus time-series dynamics model includes: l (t)=lypwpdph(t)；
Wherein, l (t) is the load of load point t hour, lyYear load peak for load point；pwRespectively it is worth on all load curves
Ratio with year load peak；pdRatio for value each on daily load curve and all load peaks；phOn load curve when () is t
Each value and the ratio of daily load peak value.
4. the Evaluation Method of Distribution Systems Reliability as described in any one of claim 1-3 is it is characterised in that in step s3,
The condition of isolated island successful operation includes: (3.1) only have the output of square distributed power source in isolated island to be more than or are equal to load to be needed
Ask, just can carry out islet operation operation；(3.2) in isolated island, arbitrary distributed power source breaks down, islet operation failure；
(3.3) distributed power source can be powered to island internal loading before and after islet operation incessantly.
5. Evaluation Method of Distribution Systems Reliability as claimed in claim 4 is it is characterised in that described isolated island successful operation probability
Wherein,Represent the group of the be possible to running status of all loads and distributed power source in isolated island
Close sum；ndRepresent that in isolated island, all loads are counted out；ngRepresent all distributed power source numbers in isolated island；Represent in isolated island
The load level number of degrees of i-th load point；Represent the output number of degrees of j-th distributed power source in isolated island；ps dWith
ps gRepresent the total load amount size of all loads in isolated island under s-th assembled state and total output of all distributed power sources respectively
Watt level；ρgRepresent the fault rate of g-th distributed power source in isolated island；Represent
The probability of s-th assembled state.
6. the Evaluation Method of Distribution Systems Reliability as described in any one of claim 1-5 is it is characterised in that in step s4,
Also comprised the steps: before using improved minimal path method
Ask for each load point to the minimal path of main power source, elements all in system are divided into element on minimal path and non-minimum
Element on road, obtains minimum circuit component collection and non-minimum circuit component collection.
Scope is divided according to isolated island and judges load vertex type, outer load point, calculates it according to traditional minimal path method for isolated island
Reliability index；For isolated island internal loading point, calculate its reliability index according to improved minimal path method.
7. Evaluation Method of Distribution Systems Reliability as claimed in claim 6 it is characterised in that improved minimal path method meet with
Lower principle:
Element treatment principle on minimal path:
Principle 1: if the element on minimal path is in the range of plan isolated island, then this element fault, in isolated island, dg automatically exits from
Run, element fault causes the power failure of load point, power off time is the fault correction time of element；
Principle 2: if the element on minimal path is outside plan isolated island scope, then this element fault, isolated island chopper and correlation
Control element auto-action, isolated island can be formed with certain probability and run.If isolated island successful operation, isolated island internal loading point
Powered by dg, element fault does not affect on the power supply reliability of load point；If islet operation failure, isolated island internal loading point
Have a power failure, power off time is element fault repair time；
Element treatment principle on non-minimum road:
Principle 3: the load branch circuit element being located for non-load point, its head end is equipped with fuse, the element event on load branch circuit
Barrier, fuse fuses automatically, and load point reliability is unaffected；
Principle 4: for the non-minimum circuit component on main feeder and branch feeder, find the upstream circuit breaker of its nearest neighbours respectively
With upstream disconnecting switch, further according to the impact to load point reliability for the position judgment element fault of chopper and disconnecting switch；
Principle 4.1: if chopper is not on load point minimal path, element fault causes chopper automatically to disconnect, load point
Reliability is unaffected；
Principle 4.2: if chopper is on load point minimal path, disconnecting switch not on load point minimal path, then element fault
Impact reference principle 2 to load point reliability, after difference is islet operation failure, load point power off time is isolation
The switching manipulation time；
Principle 4.3: if on load point minimal path and disconnecting switch is also on load point minimal path, element fault for chopper
Impact reference principle 2 to load point reliability.
8. Evaluation Method of Distribution Systems Reliability as claimed in claim 7 is it is characterised in that described Equations of The Second Kind load point can
Include by property index: fault rate λ of j-th load point in isolated islandj, year power off time ujWith average fault outage time γj；
Wherein, λj=ρsoλ′j+(1-ρso)λ″j, uj=ρsou'j+(1-ρso)u″j, γj=uj/λj, λj、uj、γjIt is respectively isolated island
The fault rate of interior j-th load point, year power off time, mean failure rate power off time；λ'j、u'jWhen being respectively isolated island successful operation
The fault rate of j-th load point and year power off time in isolated island；λ″j、u″jBe respectively islet operation failure when isolated island in j-th negative
The fault rate of lotus point and year power off time；ρsoFor isolated island successful operation probability.
9. the Evaluation Method of Distribution Systems Reliability as described in claim 1-8 any one is it is characterised in that described system can
Include by property index: system System average interruption frequency index s aifi, system average power off time index s aidi and average power supply can
By rate index asai；
Wherein,
nlpCount out n for loadiFor being connected to the number of users of load point i；λiFault rate for load point i；uiYear for load point i
Power off time.
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