CN106329515B - A kind of horizontal determination method of electric network reliability based on static reliability probability level - Google Patents
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Abstract
The present invention provides a kind of horizontal determination method of the electric network reliability based on static reliability probability level, the present invention considers risk caused by the probability that element may stop transport, uncertainty and multiple constraint in running environment and the factors such as increases, the reliability index of energy computing element, load point and system, record specific cutting load node and cutting load amount, and give a kind of judgment criteria for determining electric network reliability level, more comprehensive and objective appraisal can be carried out to the static reliability of power grid, and the reliability level of power grid is determined.Therefore, the horizontal determination method of electric network reliability based on static reliability probability level has preferable practical directive significance and application value.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of reliability level determination methods, and in particular to a kind of based on static reliability probability level
The horizontal determination method of electric network reliability.
Background technique
As the quantity of electric network element, type are increasing, Automation of Electric Systems degree is continuously improved and user couple
The raising that power quality requires, so that the work such as the planning of electric system, operation, maintenance face great challenge.In recent years, state
The inside and outside large area blackout to take place frequently, have brought tremendous economic losses with heavy social influence, therefore keep power train
The safe and reliable operation of system not only can bring benefit guarantee for social production, can more guarantee that the whole society is healthy and stable
Development.Traditional reliability assessment often only considers single or a small amount of several uncertain factors, only calculates conventional electric power
Or electric quantity loss index, and fail to provide the judgment criteria for determining electric network reliability level.
The horizontal determination method of a kind of electric network reliability based on static reliability probability level, it is contemplated that element may stop transport
Probability, risk caused by uncertainty and multiple constraint in running environment the factors such as increase, can computing element, load point and
The reliability index of system records specific cutting load node and cutting load amount, and gives and determine electric network reliability level
A kind of judgment criteria can carry out more comprehensive and objective appraisal, to the reliability level of power grid to the static reliability of power grid
Determined.Therefore, the horizontal determination method of electric network reliability based on static reliability probability level, which has, preferably actually to be referred to
Lead meaning and application value.
In the calculating of static reliability probability level, need using probabilistic reliability assessment models.
Summary of the invention
In order to overcome the above-mentioned deficiencies of the prior art, the present invention provides a kind of power grid based on static reliability probability level
Reliability level determination method.The present invention is based on the horizontal determination methods of the electric network reliability of static reliability probability level can be to electricity
The static reliability of net carries out more comprehensive and objective appraisal, determines the reliability level of power grid.
In order to achieve the above-mentioned object of the invention, the present invention adopts the following technical scheme that:
A kind of horizontal determination method of electric network reliability based on static reliability probability level, the method includes walking as follows
It is rapid:
(1) dependability parameter of input element；
(2) electric system is built, the power flow algorithm of original state is formed, carries out Load flow calculation；
(3) event of failure is selected, the probability of its generation is calculated；
(4) judge whether otherwise off-the-line is determining if then forming sub-network collection according to solution column information for the electric system
Step (6) are transferred to after electric system power supply is sufficient；
(5) sub-network is selected, judges whether the sub-network takes active corrective action；
(6) fault element is deleted in the power flow algorithm of original state, the Load flow calculation data text after forming failure
Part carries out Load flow calculation again；
(7) out-of-limit detect with circuit overload of node voltage is carried out according to step (6) calculated result to judge；
(8) output node voltage gets over limit information, circuit overload information and node load reduction information；
(9) above-mentioned steps analysis, and computing system, load point and element are carried out to all sub-networks and all states
Reliability index；
(10) power grid scale and reliability history data are combined, determine a reference value of evaluation power grid static reliability level,
Determine that electric network reliability is horizontal.
Preferably, in the step (1), the dependability parameter includes element failure rate, failure mean repair time, meter
Draw maintenance rate and scheduled overhaul time.
Preferably, in the step (2), the electric power system data includes generator, load, balance nodes, transformer
And route.
Preferably, in the step (4), the solution column information is a part and the electric system of the electric system
The connection of other parts is cut off, and mutually indepedent, compartment part is divided into.
Preferably, it in the step (5), if taking active corrective action, is transferred to step (8) output node load and cuts
Abatement information；If not taking active corrective action, continue to judge whether the sub-network contains load, generator node peace
Weigh nodal information；If sub-network contains load, generator node and balance nodes, it is transferred to step (6)；Otherwise, it will adopt
Corrective action is taken until sub-network includes complete load, generator node and balance nodal information.
Preferably, in the step (7), the progress node voltage is out-of-limit and circuit overload detection judgement includes, if depositing
Node voltage is out-of-limit or circuit overload problem, then corrective action is taken, and go to step (8).
Preferably, in the step (9), the method for the computing system and load point reliability index, including walk as follows
It is rapid:
Step 9-1, the reliability level index of computing system and load bus, formula are as follows:
In formula, PSLOLPFor power failure probability, when not considering dynamic cutting load, it is believed that the index is system blackout probability；P
(Xi) be system mode probability-distribution function；P(Xi,k) be element probability-distribution function；
In formula, FSLOLFFor power failure frequency, unit: times/year；When not considering dynamic cutting load, it is believed that the index is to be
System power failure frequency；SLCFor there are the system mode set of cutting load；MdownFor element set of stopping transport in system；MupTo be transported in system
Units set；μkFor repair rate；λkFor failure rate；
In formula, PSEPNSFor power failure power desired value, unit: MW；When not considering dynamic cutting load, it is believed that the index is
System blackout power desired value；PS,iFor the power failure electricity of i-th of system mode, unit are as follows: MWh；
ESEENS=PSEPNS·T
In formula, ESEENSFor power failure electricity desired value, unit: MWh/；When not considering dynamic cutting load, it is believed that the index
As system blackout electricity desired value；T is research period hourage, is taken within 1 year 8760 hours；
HSLOLE=PSLOLP·T
In formula, HSLOLEFor year power failure hourage, unit are as follows: h/；
DSLOLD=HSLOLE/FSLOLF
In formula, DSLOLDTime power off time, unit: h/ times；When not considering dynamic cutting load, it is believed that the index is to be
System power off time desired value；
PSAPC=PSEPNS/FSLOLF
In formula, PSAPCFor equal power failure power, unit: MW/ times；
ESAEC=ESEENS/FSLOLF
In formula, ESAECFor equal power failure electricity, unit: MWh/ times；
PSMPC=max (PS,i), i=1,2 ..., NLC
In formula, PSMPCFor maximum power failure power, unit: MW；NLCFor there are the total numbers of the system mode of cutting load；
ESMEC=max (ES,i), i=1,2 ..., NLC
In formula, ESMECFor maximum power failure electricity, unit: MWh；ES,iFor the power failure electricity of i-th of system mode, unit:
MWh；
ISISI=ESEENS/Lmax×60
In formula, ISISIFor power failure severity index, unit: minute；LmaxFor system year peak load；
Step 9-2, the index of the reliability level of calculated load node, formula are as follows:
In formula, PVIO,lFor load point l, there are the probability that voltage crosses the border, SVIO,lFor load point l, there are the systems that voltage crosses the border
State set；
Step 9-3, the average value index of computing system reliability index distribution condition between load bus, formula are as follows:
In formula, FSYAIFFor load point System average interruption frequency, unit: secondary/(year load point)；NLFor load point in system
Number；
In formula, HSYAIHNumber when having a power failure for load point annual, unit: h/ (year load point)；
In formula, DSYAIDFor load point System average interruption duration, unit: h/ (secondary load point)；
PSYAPC=PSEPNS/NL
In formula, PSYAPCAveragely have a power failure power for load point, unit: MW/ (year load point)；
ESYAEC=ESEENS/NL
In formula, ESYAECAveragely have a power failure electricity for load point, unit: MWh/ (year load point)；
Preferably, in the step (9), computing element reliability index, formula is as follows:
In formula, POL,kFor the overload probability of route k；SOL,kThere is the system mode set of overload for route k；
ΔPmax,k=max (Δ Pk,j), (j=1,2 ..., NOL,k)
In formula, Δ Pk,jFor route k overload amount, NOL,kThere is the total number of the system mode of overload, Δ for route k
Pmax,kFor the active maximum overload amount of route k.
Preferably, in the step (10), the judgement electric network reliability level include: by the minimum element of reliability not
Availability is compared as threshold value, by reliability index calculated in step (9) with the threshold value, if being lower than threshold value, is recognized
It is met the requirements for reliability, is otherwise unsatisfactory for requiring.
Compared with prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention are:
The present invention considers wind caused by the probability that element may stop transport, uncertainty and multiple constraint in running environment
The factors such as danger increase, the reliability index of energy computing element, load point and system can carry out more the static reliability of power grid
Comprehensively and objective appraisal, record specific cutting load node and cutting load amount, description system different zones mistake load feelings
Condition solves the problems, such as that the assessment of power grid static reliability lacks unified standard.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is a kind of horizontal determination method of electric network reliability based on static reliability probability level provided by the invention
Fig. 2 is element two-state model
Fig. 3 is somewhere network system part wiring diagram
Specific embodiment
The present invention is described in further detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
As shown in Figure 1, a kind of horizontal determination method of electric network reliability based on static reliability probability level, this method packet
Include following steps:
(1) data are built according to calculating demand；Input element dependability parameter, comprising: the failure rate (times/year) of element,
Failure mean repair time (hour/time), scheduled overhaul rate (times/year), scheduled overhaul time (hour/time) etc..
(2) generator, load, balance nodes, transformer and track data are built, the Load flow calculation mould of original state is formed
Type carries out Load flow calculation.
(3) event of failure is selected, the probability of its generation is calculated.
(4) judge whether otherwise off-the-line is determining if then forming sub-network collection according to solution column information for the electric system
Step (6) are transferred to after electric system power supply is sufficient.
(5) sub-network is selected, judges whether the sub-network takes active corrective action.If taking active correction
Measure is then transferred to (8) output node load reduction information；If not active corrective action continues whether to judge the sub-network
Contain load, generator node and balance nodal information.If sub-network contains load, generator node and balance section
Point is then transferred to (6)；Otherwise, corrective action will be taken until sub-network includes complete load, generator node and balance nodes
Information.
(6) BPA flow data file is formed, the Load flow calculation under malfunction is carried out.
(7) carry out that node voltage is out-of-limit and circuit overload inspection according to the calculated result of (6).Node voltage is out-of-limit if it exists
And (or) circuit overload problem, then take corrective action, and be transferred to out-of-limit (8) output node voltage, circuit overload information and
Corresponding load reduction information.
(8) output node voltage gets over limit information, circuit overload information, node load reduction information.
(9) above-mentioned analysis carried out to all sub-network and all states, and computing system, load point and element
Reliability index.
(10) power grid scale, reliability history data are combined, a reference value of evaluation power grid static reliability level is determined, sentences
Determine whether power grid meets security requirement.
In the step (9), the method for the computing system and load point reliability index includes the following steps:
Step 4-1, the reliability level index of computing system and load bus, formula are as follows:
In formula, PSLOLPFor power failure probability, when not considering dynamic cutting load, it is believed that the index is system blackout probability；P
(Xi) be system mode probability-distribution function；P(Xi,k) be element probability-distribution function；
In formula, FSLOLFFor power failure frequency, unit: times/year；When not considering dynamic cutting load, it is believed that the index is to be
System power failure frequency；SLCFor there are the system mode set of cutting load；MdownFor element set of stopping transport in system；MupTo be transported in system
Units set；μkFor repair rate；λkFor failure rate；
In formula, PSEPNSFor power failure power desired value, unit: MW；When not considering dynamic cutting load, it is believed that the index is
System blackout power desired value；PS,iFor the power failure electricity of i-th of system mode, unit are as follows: MWh；
ESEENS=PSEPNS·T
In formula, ESEENSFor power failure electricity desired value, unit: MWh/；When not considering dynamic cutting load, it is believed that the index
As system blackout electricity desired value；T is research period hourage, is taken within 1 year 8760 hours；
HSLOLE=PSLOLP·T
In formula, HSLOLEFor year power failure hourage, unit are as follows: h/；
DSLOLD=HSLOLE/FSLOLF
In formula, DSLOLDTime power off time, unit: h/ times；When not considering dynamic cutting load, it is believed that the index is to be
System power off time desired value；
PSAPC=PSEPNS/FSLOLF
In formula, PSAPCFor equal power failure power, unit: MW/ times；
ESAEC=ESEENS/FSLOLF
In formula, ESAECFor equal power failure electricity, unit: MWh/ times；
PSMPC=max (PS,i), i=1,2 ..., NLC
In formula, PSMPCFor maximum power failure power, unit: MW；NLCFor there are the total numbers of the system mode of cutting load；
ESMEC=max (ES,i), i=1,2 ..., NLC
In formula, ESMECFor maximum power failure electricity, unit: MWh；ES,iFor the power failure electricity of i-th of system mode, unit:
MWh；
ISISI=ESEENS/Lmax×60
In formula, ISISIFor power failure severity index, unit: minute；LmaxFor system year peak load；
Step 4-2, the index of the reliability level of calculated load node, formula are as follows:
In formula, PVIO,lFor load point l, there are the probability that voltage crosses the border, SVIO,lFor load point l, there are the systems that voltage crosses the border
State set；
Step 4-3, the average value index of computing system reliability index distribution condition between load bus, formula are as follows:
In formula, FSYAIFFor load point System average interruption frequency, unit: secondary/(year load point)；NLFor load point in system
Number；
In formula, HSYAIHNumber when having a power failure for load point annual, unit: h/ (year load point)；
In formula, DSYAIDFor load point System average interruption duration, unit: h/ (secondary load point)；
PSYAPC=PSEPNS/NL
In formula, PSYAPCAveragely have a power failure power for load point, unit: MW/ (year load point)；
ESYAEC=ESEENS/NL
In formula, ESYAECAveragely have a power failure electricity for load point, unit: MWh/ (year load point)；
Preferably, in the step (9), computing element reliability index, formula is as follows:
In formula, POL,kFor the overload probability of route k；SOL,kThere is the system mode set of overload for route k；
ΔPmax,k=max (Δ Pk,j), (j=1,2 ..., NOL,k)
In formula, Δ Pk,jFor route k overload amount, NOL,kThere is the total number of the system mode of overload, Δ for route k
Pmax,kFor the active maximum overload amount of route k.
As shown in figure 3, somewhere power grid includes 24 generators, 140 transmission lines of electricity, 104 transformers (wherein three around
Group, which becomes, 37), 53 load bus include this two layers of voltage class of 220kV, 110kV.According to general based on static reliability
It is as shown in the table that each reliability is calculated in the horizontal determination method of the electric network reliability of rate index.
1 Reliability Index of table
| PSLOLP | PSEPNS(MW) | ESEENS(MWh/y) |
| 0.00239169 | 0.03809812 | 333.7395 |
| HSLOLE(h/y) | POL,k | PSMPC(MW) |
| 20.95128 | 0.00136305 | 270 |
2 component reliability index of table (descending by circuit overload probability)
| Line name | POL,k | ΔPmax,k(MW) |
| BUS33–BUS27 | 4.662072e-004 | 5.450000e+001 |
| BUS8–BUS30 | 1.351481e-004 | 9.710000e+001 |
| BUS36–BUS19 | 2.106149e-007 | 4.520000e+001 |
| BUS33–BUS36 | 2.009073e-007 | 6.660000e+001 |
| BUS30–BUS32 | 1.100947e-007 | 1.140000e+001 |
3 load point reliability index of table
| Number when load point annual has a power failure | Load point averagely has a power failure power | Load point averagely has a power failure electricity |
| 1.812997e-001 | 1.788644e-004 | 1.566852 |
4 load bus reliability index of table (descending by load point power failure probability)
| Nodename | PSLOLP | PSEPNS(MW) |
| BUS27 | 5.765937e-004 | 1.042017e-003 |
| BUS9 | 5.393999e-004 | 1.519624e-002 |
| BUS15 | 1.351174e-004 | 2.187986e-003 |
| BUS38 | 1.351080e-004 | 1.418368e-004 |
| BUS1 | 1.351080e-004 | 1.620992e-004 |
Whether cause system unstability as the standard for measuring system stability, threshold value 1e- using single element failure (N-1)
003, the dependability parameter of said elements is respectively less than threshold value, it can be seen that system meets safety standard.
The horizontal determination method of electric network reliability based on static reliability probability level calculates more convenient, clear concept,
It is applied and is verified in actual electric network.
Finally it should be noted that: the above embodiments are merely illustrative of the technical scheme of the present invention and are not intended to be limiting thereof, to the greatest extent
Invention is explained in detail referring to above-described embodiment for pipe, it should be understood by those ordinary skilled in the art that: still
It can be with modifications or equivalent substitutions are made to specific embodiments of the invention, and without departing from any of spirit and scope of the invention
Modification or equivalent replacement, are intended to be within the scope of the claims of the invention.
Claims (5)
1. a kind of horizontal determination method of electric network reliability based on static reliability probability level, which is characterized in that the method
Include the following steps:
(1) dependability parameter of input element；
(2) electric system is built, the power flow algorithm of original state is formed, carries out Load flow calculation；
(3) event of failure is selected, the probability of its generation is calculated；
(4) judge the electric system whether off-the-line, if then according to solution column information formed sub-network collection, otherwise determine electric power
Step (6) are transferred to after systematic electricity supply is sufficient；
(5) sub-network is selected, judges whether the sub-network takes active corrective action；
(6) fault element is deleted in the power flow algorithm of original state, the Load flow calculation data file after forming failure, then
Secondary carry out Load flow calculation；
(7) out-of-limit detect with circuit overload of node voltage is carried out according to step (6) calculated result to judge；
(8) output node voltage gets over limit information, circuit overload information and node load reduction information；
(9) above-mentioned steps analysis carried out to all sub-network and all states, and computing system, load point and element can
By property index；
(10) power grid scale and reliability history data are combined, determine a reference value of evaluation power grid static reliability level, are determined
Electric network reliability is horizontal；
In step (1), the dependability parameter includes element failure rate, failure mean repair time, scheduled overhaul rate and plan
Repair time；
In step (9), the method for the computing system and load point reliability index includes the following steps:
Step 9-1, the reliability level index of computing system and load bus, formula are as follows:
In formula, PSLOLPFor power failure probability, when not considering dynamic cutting load, it is believed that the index is system blackout probability；P(Xi)
For the probability-distribution function of system mode；P(Xi,k) be element probability-distribution function；
In formula, FSLOLFFor power failure frequency, unit: times/year；When not considering dynamic cutting load, it is believed that the index is that system is stopped
Electric frequency；SLCFor there are the system mode set of cutting load；MdownFor element set of stopping transport in system；MupTo run member in system
Part set；μkFor repair rate；λkFor failure rate；
In formula, PSEPNSFor power failure power desired value, unit: MW；When not considering dynamic cutting load, it is believed that the index is system
Power failure power desired value；PS,iFor the power failure electricity of i-th of system mode, unit are as follows: MWh；
ESEENS=PSEPNS·T
In formula, ESEENSFor power failure electricity desired value, unit: MWh/；When not considering dynamic cutting load, it is believed that the index is
System blackout electricity desired value；T is research period hourage, is taken within 1 year 8760 hours；
HSLOLE=PSLOLP·T
In formula, HSLOLEFor year power failure hourage, unit are as follows: h/；
DSLOLD=HSLOLE/FSLOLF
In formula, DSLOLDTime power off time, unit: h/ times；When not considering dynamic cutting load, it is believed that the index is that system is stopped
Electric time desired value；
PSAPC=PSEPNS/FSLOLF
In formula, PSAPCFor equal power failure power, unit: MW/ times；
ESAEC=ESEENS/FSLOLF
In formula, ESAECFor equal power failure electricity, unit: MWh/ times；
PSMPC=max (PS,i), i=1,2 ..., NLC
In formula, PSMPCFor maximum power failure power, unit: MW；NLCFor there are the total numbers of the system mode of cutting load；
ESMEC=max (ES,i), i=1,2 ..., NLC
In formula, ESMECFor maximum power failure electricity, unit: MWh；ES,iFor the power failure electricity of i-th of system mode, unit: MWh；
ISISI=ESEENS/Lmax×60
In formula, ISISIFor power failure severity index, unit: minute；LmaxFor system year peak load；
Step 9-2, the index of the reliability level of calculated load node, formula are as follows:
In formula, PVIO,lFor load point l, there are the probability that voltage crosses the border, SVIO,lFor load point l, there are the system modes that voltage crosses the border
Set；
Step 9-3, the average value index of computing system reliability index distribution condition between load bus, formula are as follows:
In formula, FSYAIFFor load point System average interruption frequency, unit: secondary/(year load point)；NLFor load point number in system；
In formula, HSYAIHNumber when having a power failure for load point annual, unit: h/ (year load point)；
In formula, DSYAIDFor load point System average interruption duration, unit: h/ (secondary load point)；
PSYAPC=PSEPNS/NL
In formula, PSYAPCAveragely have a power failure power for load point, unit: MW/ (year load point)；
ESYAEC=ESEENS/NL
In formula, ESYAECAveragely have a power failure electricity for load point, unit: MWh/ (year load point)；
In step (9), computing element reliability index, formula is as follows:
In formula, POL,kFor the overload probability of route k；SOL,kThere is the system mode set of overload for route k；
ΔPmax,k=max (Δ Pk,j), (j=1,2 ..., NOL,k)
In formula, Δ Pk,jFor route k overload amount, NOL,kThere is the total number of the system mode of overload, Δ P for route kmax,kFor
The active maximum overload amount of route k；
In step (10), the judgement electric network reliability level include: using the minimum element degree of unavailability of reliability as threshold value,
Reliability index calculated in step (9) is compared with the threshold value, if being lower than threshold value, then it is assumed that reliability satisfaction is wanted
It asks, is otherwise unsatisfactory for requiring.
2. determination method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that in step (2), the electric system include generator,
Load, balance nodes, transformer and route.
3. determination method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that in step (4), the solution column information is the power train
The connection of a part of system and the electric system other parts is cut off, and mutually indepedent, compartment part is divided into.
4. determination method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that in step (5), if taking active corrective action,
It is transferred to step (8) output node load reduction information；If not taking active corrective action, continue whether to judge the sub-network
Contain load, generator node and balance nodal information；If sub-network contains load, generator node and balance section
Point is then transferred to step (6)；Otherwise, corrective action will be taken until sub-network includes complete load, generator node and balance
Nodal information.
5. determination method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that in step (7), the progress node voltage is out-of-limit and line
Overload detection judgement in road includes that node voltage is out-of-limit if it exists or circuit overload problem, then takes corrective action, and jump to step
Suddenly (8).
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| CN107332241B (en) * | 2017-08-30 | 2020-02-18 | 国家电网公司 | Method and system for evaluating reliability of power distribution network containing distributed new energy |
| CN109245155A (en) * | 2018-09-30 | 2019-01-18 | 国网河北省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | The credible capacity evaluating method of power distribution network broad sense power supply power transformation based on uncertain theory |
| CN113190966A (en) * | 2021-03-31 | 2021-07-30 | 海南电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 | Power grid simulation system parameter confirmation and verification method |
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| CN104332996A (en) * | 2014-11-18 | 2015-02-04 | 国家电网公司 | Method for estimating power system reliability |
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