CN103886514B - Power grid development assessment method with economical efficiency and security considered - Google Patents
Power grid development assessment method with economical efficiency and security considered Download PDFInfo
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- CN103886514B CN103886514B CN201410085513.7A CN201410085513A CN103886514B CN 103886514 B CN103886514 B CN 103886514B CN 201410085513 A CN201410085513 A CN 201410085513A CN 103886514 B CN103886514 B CN 103886514B
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
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- Y02E—REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS [GHG] EMISSIONS, RELATED TO ENERGY GENERATION, TRANSMISSION OR DISTRIBUTION
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- Y02E40/70—Smart grids as climate change mitigation technology in the energy generation sector
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
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- Y04S10/50—Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications
Abstract
The invention relates to a power grid development assessment method with economical efficiency and security considered. The method comprises the steps of collecting initial state data of a power grid to be researched; conducting evolution simulation on the development state of the power grid based on the initial state data of the power grid; conducting statistics on relevant information of newly-built power plants, transformer substations and lines and simulating cascading failures of the power grid based on an obtained power grid evolution simulation result, calculating the construction cost of the power grid based on the statistics information, and obtaining the load loss information of the cascading failures of the power grid based on the simulation of the cascading failures of the power grid; calculating the outage cost of the power grid to obtain the total outage cost of power grid evolution; calculating the development cost of the power grid according to the construction cost of the power grid, the outage cost of the power grid and additionally-supplied load profit; changing the control parameters of evolution simulation of the development state of the power grid and obtaining power grid development cost values under different evolution simulation control parameters through calculation; making an assessment according to the principle that the lower a power grid development cost value is, the more reasonable power grid development is under the corresponding development speed.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of power network development appraisal procedure, especially with regard to a kind of electrical network considering economy and safety
Development Assessment method.
Background technology
Electric energy plays an important role in today's society.Electrical network as the transport vehicle of electric energy, for its state of development
Assessment be major issue of concern.The electrical network of Rational Development is it can be avoided that the wasting of resources that causes of excess investment and investment
The not enough high power failure risk causing, meets the needs to economic, safe electric energy for the user simultaneously, serves the progress of society.
The appraisal procedure being adapted using model emulation technology and therewith is analyzed to the state of development of electrical network assessing, on the one hand permissible
Reduce dependence to the extensive collection of real data, on the other hand can analyze the mutual of many factors in power network development process comprehensively
The mechanism of action and its impact to power network development, the Rational Development for electrical network is significant.
In terms of the assessment of power network development, it is necessary that safety and economy are carried out considering, and both are organically tied
It is combined and be capable of the assessment to power network development.Prior art has worldlet to the model of electrical network long-run development evolution research
Network evolution model, scales-free network evolutionary model etc..These models are former because not accounting for the important upgrading such as electrical network N-1 verification
Then can not truly reproduce the state of development of modern power network.With the development of electrical network, electrical network progressively interconnects, cascading failure and its
Having a power failure on a large scale of causing threatens the safe operation of electrical network.However, the reliability estimation method adopting in prior art is not because have
Consider that fault progression has the characteristics that dependency, can not truly reflect the power failure cost that electrical network is faced.
Content of the invention
For the problems referred to above, it is an object of the invention to provide a kind of power network development assessment side considering economy and safety
Method, the method carries out Evolution Simulation based on electrical network initial condition data to power network development situation, and power network development cost is carried out
Calculate, the present invention can carry out comprehensive assessment to the state of development of electrical network in terms of economy with safety two.
For achieving the above object, the present invention takes technical scheme below：The electrical network of a kind of consideration economy and safety is sent out
Exhibition appraisal procedure, it comprises the following steps：1）Collect the initial condition data of electrical network to be studied, it includes initial electric network model number
According to, data and the historical statistical data for power network development cost calculation for initial electrical network carried out with Evolution Simulation；2）Base
In electrical network initial condition data, Evolution Simulation is carried out to power network development situation；3）According to step 2) in the electrical network Evolution Simulation that obtains
As a result, the relevant information of statistics new power plant construction, transformer station and circuit, and power grid construction cost is calculated according to statistical information：
In formula, Y represents evolution time overall length；T represents the time carrying out certain electrical network upgrading；lLitRepresent newly-built in t
Electric pressure is the line length of i；STjtRepresent that in the newly-built electric pressure of t be the transformer capacity of j；CLiRepresent voltage etc.
The unit length circuit cost for i for the level；CTjRepresent the unit capacity transformer station cost that electric pressure is j；4）According to step 2) in
The electrical network Evolution Simulation result obtaining, is simulated to power grid cascading fault, obtains power grid cascading on some material time sections
The load loss information of fault；5）According to step 1）The historical statistical data for power network development cost calculation of middle collection and step
Rapid 4）In the load loss information of power grid cascading fault that obtains, grid power blackout loss cost is calculated, obtains electrical network and drill
Changing total loss of outage cost L is：
L=Σ Lm,
In formula, LmFor the grid power blackout cost in the period,
In formula, i represents generation i weight primary fault, i=1,2 ... imax, imaxFor primary fault highest tuple, n represents corresponding
The number of power equipment, T in electrical networkmExpression power failure scale is ymaxWhen persistent period, D represent specific load loss caused by
Power failure cost, p is the probability of malfunction of individual equipment in each period, the number of times that N simulates for cascading failure, yijInitial for i weight
The load loss amount that under fault, jth time fault leads to；6）According to power grid construction cost W, grid power blackout loss cost L and increasing for negative
Lotus income I, calculates to power network development cost Z, and power network development cost Z is：
Z=W+L-I,
In formula, increasing for load income I is：I=η × E × Load × Time, Load represent that increasing supplies loading, and Time represents
Increase and supply duration of load application, E represents that unit increases and supply load income, η represents the coefficient of load utilization；7）According to calculated power network development
Cost Z, is estimated to power network development；Change the Evolution Simulation control parameter in power network development conditions, sent out according to electrical network
Transform into the power network development value at cost that this Z is calculated under different Evolution Simulation control parameters；It is fixed that power network development value at cost gets over lower assessment
Under corresponding development speed, power network development is more reasonable；According to the relation between power network development cost and Evolution Simulation control parameter, really
Fixed more reasonably power network development mode.
Described step 2）In, Evolution Simulation is carried out to power network development situation, it specifically includes following steps：1. preset and develop
Simulation control parameter, Evolution Simulation control parameter includes evolution time upper limit, Electric Power Network Planning interval and load factor upgrade threshold；②
Judge whether total evolution time reaches evolution time upper limit, if total evolution time reaches evolution time upper limit, storage electrical network is drilled
Change analog result and simultaneously calculate power grid construction cost, otherwise execution step is 3.；3. developed the time according to total, network within the expected time
Read current time each load bus institute on-load value in load growth information, extend in time and be stepped up to simulate load
Practical situation；4. judge whether the time interval of current evolution time gap last time electrical network upgrading reaches between Electric Power Network Planning
Every；If reaching Electric Power Network Planning interval, 5. execution step, otherwise increases unit evolution duration, and return to step is 2.；5. carry out
Electric Power Network Planning is built；6. update network load data and grid equipment data, calculate the optimal load flow based on DC power flow, enter
Row power system operating mode arranges, and increases unit evolution duration return to step 2..
Described step 5. in, carry out Electric Power Network Planning construction, it specifically includes following steps：Ith, the load of the expected time limit is entered
Row prediction, newly-built transformer station at the expected load bus occurring, transformer station is accessed low pressure major network nearby, and according to load water
Flat and electric pressure determines transformator number；IIth, according to spinning reserve situation in electrical network, judge whether to need newly-built power plant；
When in electrical network, spinning reserve is sufficient, execution step III；Otherwise, new power plant construction in electrical network；IIIth, calculate electric network swim to be distributed simultaneously
Carry out electrical network N-1 check；If no heave-load device and be satisfied by N-1 and check in electrical network, update network load data and electrical network
Device data；Otherwise, exceed load factor liter to the equipment do not checked by N-1 or by the calculated load factor of electric network swim
The equipment of level threshold value is upgraded.
Described step 4）In, power grid cascading fault is simulated, obtains power grid cascading event on some material time sections
The load loss information of barrier, it specifically includes：1. choose electrical network evolutionary process in some material time sections, with selected when
The electrical network of discontinuity surface is object of study, carries out power grid cascading fault simulation one by one；2. to the electrical network under specific run mode, use
Improve OPA blackout model, apply i weight primary fault n times, wherein i=1,2 ... imax, imaxFor primary fault highest tuple.Right
Electrical network under each heavy primary fault carries out the fast dynamic analog of cascading failure, the load loss feelings leading to after counting all cascading failures
Condition, is designated as yi1,yi2,…,yiN, and find out yi1,yi2,…,yiNIn maximum, be designated as ymax：
ymax=max (yi1,yi2,…,yiN)；
To whole material time section repeat steps 2., and preserve load loss information 3..
Described step 5）In, grid power blackout loss cost is calculated, it specifically includes following steps：1. electrical network is drilled
Change overall process and be divided into m period, each period is all relative with a selected material time section in electrical network evolutionary process
Should；2. according to equipment year number of stoppages PeWith evolution total duration Tall, the probability of malfunction p calculating individual equipment in each period is：
P=PeTall/m；
3. the probability of malfunction p of individual equipment in each period 2. being obtained according to step, calculates the electrical network in the period
Power failure cost LmFor：
In formula, i represents generation i weight primary fault, i=1,2 ... imax, imaxFor primary fault highest tuple, n represents corresponding
The number of power equipment, T in electrical networkmExpression power failure scale is ymaxWhen persistent period, D represent specific load loss caused by
Power failure cost, p is the probability of malfunction of individual equipment in each period, the number of times that N simulates for cascading failure, yijInitial for i weight
The load loss amount that under fault, jth time fault leads to；4. the grid power blackout cost L in the period 3. being obtained according to stepm,
Being calculated the electrical network total loss of outage cost L of evolution is：
L=Σ Lm.
Due to taking above technical scheme, it has advantages below to the present invention：1st, the present invention is based on electrical network original state number
Carry out Evolution Simulation according to power network development situation, being capable of more real simulating grid development and evolution mistake in a long time
Journey, thus provide sufficient data for the assessment of power network development situation.2nd, the present invention is due to according to electrical network Evolution Simulation result, right
Power grid cascading fault is simulated, and obtains the load loss information of power grid cascading fault on some material time sections, Jin Erji
Calculation obtains grid power blackout loss cost, and the therefore present invention calculated grid power blackout loss cost can really reproduce the modern times
The state of development of electrical network.Based on above advantage, the present invention can be widely applied in the Development Assessment to electrical network.
Brief description
Fig. 1 is the power network development appraisal procedure flow chart considering economy and safety
Fig. 2 is electrical network evolution upgrading modeling process chart
Specific embodiment
With reference to the accompanying drawings and examples the present invention is described in detail.
As shown in figure 1, the present invention considers that economy and the power network development appraisal procedure of safety specifically include following steps：
1）Collect the initial condition data of electrical network to be studied；
Initial condition data mainly includes three classes：One is initial grid model data, and it includes network topological information, network
Node geo distributed intelligence and energy distributed intelligence；Two is the data for initial electrical network is carried out with Evolution Simulation, and it includes pre-
Network load growth information, network Development Evolution Control parameter information in time phase, wherein, network Development Evolution Control parameter is believed
Breath includes total time, Electric Power Network Planning interval, load factor upgrade threshold etc. of developing；Three is the history for power network development cost calculation
Statistical data, it include the cost of representative power equipment, specific load loss cost, increase for load income, the coefficient of load utilization,
Equipment year fault rate and primary fault highest tuple etc..
2）As shown in Fig. 2 carrying out Evolution Simulation based on electrical network initial condition data to power network development situation, it specifically includes
Following steps：
1. the Evolution Simulation control parameters such as evolution time upper limit, Electric Power Network Planning interval and load factor upgrade threshold are preset.
2. judge whether total evolution time reaches evolution time upper limit, if total evolution time reaches evolution time upper limit,
Storage electrical network Evolution Simulation result execution step 3）, otherwise execution step is 3..
3. developed the time according to total, within the expected time, read each load bus of current time network load growth information
Institute's on-load value, to simulate the practical situation that load extends in time and is stepped up.
4. judge whether the time interval of current evolution time gap last time electrical network upgrading reaches Electric Power Network Planning interval；
If reaching Electric Power Network Planning interval, execution step is 5.；Otherwise, increase unit evolution duration, and return to step is 2..
5. carry out Electric Power Network Planning construction, it specifically includes following steps：
Ith, the load of the expected time limit is predicted, newly-built transformer station at the expected load bus occurring, by transformer station
Access low pressure major network nearby, and transformator number is determined according to load level and electric pressure.
IIth, judge in electrical network, whether spinning reserve situation is sufficient, newly-built power plant is determined the need for according to judged result.
If spinning reserve is sufficient in electrical network, execution step III；Otherwise, new power plant construction in electrical network, it specifically wraps
Include：First, the EIAJ sum of newly-built whole power plant needed for standby determination is reserved according to the whole network；Secondly, according to step 1）In
Each energy source point energy information and its distance to load center that energy distributed intelligence provides, determine each energy source point new-built unit
Capacity；Finally, electric pressure is determined according to specific energy point unit capacity yet to be built and unit accessed ad eundem electrical network nearby, complete
The simulation in newly-built power plant execution step III in pairs.
IIIth, calculate electric network swim to be distributed and carry out electrical network N-1 check.
If in electrical network no heave-load device and be satisfied by N-1 check, execution step is 6.；Otherwise, to not checked by N-1
Equipment or upgraded by the equipment that the calculated load factor of electric network swim exceedes load factor upgrade threshold, is carried out to equipment
Upgrading specifically includes：For transformer station, increase shunt transformer number of units, when shunt transformer reaches the upper limit, lift this power transformation
Stand electric pressure, set up voltage levels transformator；For circuit, increase parallel line and return number.
6. network load data and newly-built alternator data, newly-built substation data, upgrading power equipment data are updated
Deng grid equipment data, calculate the optimal load flow based on DC power flow, carry out power system operating mode arrangement, when increasing unit evolution
Long simultaneously return to step is 2..
3）According to step 2) in the electrical network Evolution Simulation result that obtains, the correlation of statistics new power plant construction, transformer station and circuit
Information, and power grid construction cost is calculated according to statistical information.
The newly-built first cost that power grid construction cost W comprises power equipment deducts the residual valence after Evolutionary Cycles terminate simultaneously
It is worth, corresponding mathematic(al) representation is：
In formula, Y represents evolution time overall length；T represents the time carrying out certain electrical network upgrading；lLitRepresent newly-built in t
Electric pressure is the line length of i；STjtRepresent that in the newly-built electric pressure of t be the transformer capacity of j；CLiRepresent voltage etc.
The unit length circuit cost for i for the level；CTjRepresent the unit capacity transformer station cost that electric pressure is j.
4）According to step 2) in the electrical network Evolution Simulation result that obtains, power grid cascading fault is simulated, obtains some
The load loss information of power grid cascading fault on material time section, it specifically includes：
1. some material time sections in electrical network evolutionary process are chosen（As the when interruption after the upgrading of each Electric Power Network Planning
Face）, with selected when discontinuity surface electrical network as object of study, carry out power grid cascading fault simulation one by one；
2. to the electrical network under specific run mode, using improving OPA blackout model, i weight primary fault n times, wherein i are applied
=1,2 ... imax, imaxFor primary fault highest tuple.The fast dynamic analog of cascading failure is carried out to the electrical network under each heavy primary fault
Intend, the load loss situation leading to after counting all cascading failures, be designated as yi1,yi2,…,yiN, and find out yi1,yi2,…,yiNIn
Maximum, be designated as ymax：
ymax=max (yi1,yi2,…,yiN) （2）
To whole material time section repeat steps 2., and preserve load loss information 3..
5）According to step 1）The historical statistical data for power network development cost calculation of middle collection and step 4）In obtain
Power grid cascading fault load loss information, to grid power blackout loss cost calculate, it specifically includes following steps：
1. electrical network evolution overall process is divided into m period, each period all with step 4）One of material time break
Face is corresponding；
2. according to equipment year number of stoppages PeWith evolution total duration Tall, the fault calculating individual equipment in each period is general
Rate p：
P=PeTall/m （3）
3. the probability of malfunction p of individual equipment in each period 2. being obtained according to step, calculates the electrical network in the period
Power failure cost Lm, calculating formula is：
In formula, i represents generation i weight primary fault, i=1,2 ... imax, imaxFor primary fault highest tuple, n represents corresponding
The number of power equipment, T in electrical networkmExpression power failure scale is ymaxWhen persistent period, D represent specific load loss caused by
Power failure cost, yijThe load loss amount leading to for jth time fault under i weight primary fault；
4. the grid power blackout cost L in the period 3. being obtained according to stepm, it is calculated total power failure of electrical network evolution and damage
Losing cost L is：
L=Σ Lm（5）
6）Load income I is supplied according to power grid construction cost W, grid power blackout loss cost L and increasing, to power network development cost Z
Calculated, it specifically includes：
Power network development cost Z is：
Z=W+L-I（6）
In formula, increasing for load income I is：
I=η × E × Load × Time（7）
In formula, Load represents that increasing supplies loading, and Time represents that increasing supplies duration of load application, and E represents that unit increases and supplies load income, η
Represent the coefficient of load utilization.
7）According to calculated power network development cost Z, power network development is estimated；
Change the Evolution Simulation control parameter in power network development conditions, according to formula（6）It is calculated different evolution moulds
Intend the power network development value at cost under control parameter.Power network development cost is reaction after considering electric network security and economy
A kind of index of power network development situation, under the surely corresponding development speed of power network development value at cost more lower assessment, power network development is more reasonable；Root
According to the relation between power network development cost and Evolution Simulation control parameter, determine more reasonably power network development mode.
Embodiment：Somewhere network system includes 149 nodes, 8 electromotors, 43 three-winding transformers, 9 two around
Group transformator and 75 circuits.Using the present invention, this area's power network development situation is estimated, it specifically includes following steps：
1）As shown in table 1, collect the initial condition data of this area's electrical network.
Table 1 somewhere electrical network initial condition data
2）Evolution Simulation is carried out based on initial grid model data to power network development situation, changes the load factor upgrading of equipment
Threshold value, calculates the power network development cost under different loads rate upgrade threshold, and development cost is relatively low, represents the development speed of electrical network relatively
Rationally, thus providing reference for the planning construction of actual electric network.
Power network development cost under table 2 different loads rate upgrade threshold
From table 2 it can be seen that when load factor upgrade threshold is 0.6, power network development cost Z is minimum, convolution（6）Understand,
When load factor upgrade threshold is 0.6, the development cost of electrical network is minimum, and power network development speed is the most reasonable.
3）As shown in table 3, it is calculated under different electrical network single cascading failure maximum durations and equipment year fault rate
Excellent power network development cost.
Optimum power network development cost under the different electrical network single cascading failure maximum duration of table 3 and equipment year fault rate
Reduce the maximum duration of single cascading failure as can be seen from Table 3 and equipment year fault rate contributes to reduction electrical network and sends out
Transform into this, thus providing reference for reducing actual electric network development cost.
The present invention can more real landslide evolution process in the range of the long period for the simulating grid, by power failure mould
The simulation to system cascading failure for the type, can with loss of outage cost embody electrical network safety, and then with reflection electrical network economy
The development of the construction cost of property comprehensive assessment electrical network together.
The various embodiments described above are merely to illustrate the present invention, and the structure of wherein each part, connected mode and method and step etc. are all
Can be varied from, every equivalents carrying out on the basis of technical solution of the present invention and improvement, all should not exclude
Outside protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (1)
1. a kind of power network development appraisal procedure considering economy and safety, it comprises the following steps：
1) collect the initial condition data of electrical network to be studied, it includes initial grid model data, for carrying out to initial electrical network
The data of Evolution Simulation and the historical statistical data for power network development cost calculation；
2) Evolution Simulation is carried out to power network development situation based on electrical network initial condition data；
Evolution Simulation is carried out to power network development situation, it specifically includes following steps：
1. preset Evolution Simulation control parameter, Evolution Simulation control parameter includes evolution time upper limit, Electric Power Network Planning interval and bears
Load rate upgrade threshold；
2. judge whether total evolution time reaches evolution time upper limit, if total evolution time reaches evolution time upper limit, store
Electrical network Evolution Simulation result simultaneously calculates power grid construction cost, and otherwise execution step is 3.；
3. developed the time according to total, read each load bus of current time network load growth information within the expected time and carried
Load value, to simulate the practical situation that load extends in time and is stepped up；
4. judge whether the time interval of current evolution time gap last time electrical network upgrading reaches Electric Power Network Planning interval；
If reaching Electric Power Network Planning interval, 5. execution step, otherwise increases unit evolution duration, and return to step is 2.；
5. carry out Electric Power Network Planning construction；It specifically includes following steps：
Ith, the load of the expected time limit is predicted, newly-built transformer station at the expected load bus occurring, by transformer station nearby
Access low pressure major network, and transformator number is determined according to load level and electric pressure；
IIth, according to spinning reserve situation in electrical network, judge whether to need newly-built power plant；When in electrical network, spinning reserve is sufficient,
Execution step III；Otherwise, new power plant construction in electrical network；
IIIth, calculate electric network swim to be distributed and carry out electrical network N-1 check；
If no heave-load device and be satisfied by N-1 and check in electrical network, update network load data and grid equipment data；No
Then, exceed setting of load factor upgrade threshold to the equipment do not checked by N-1 or by the calculated load factor of electric network swim
Standby upgraded；
6. update network load data and grid equipment data, calculate the optimal load flow based on DC power flow, carry out electrical network fortune
Line mode arranges, and increases unit evolution duration return to step 2.；
3) according to step 2) in the electrical network Evolution Simulation result that obtains, the relevant information of statistics new power plant construction, transformer station and circuit,
And power grid construction cost is calculated according to statistical information：
In formula, Y represents evolution time overall length；T represents the time carrying out certain electrical network upgrading；lLitRepresent in the newly-built voltage of t
Grade is the line length of i；STjtRepresent that in the newly-built electric pressure of t be the transformer capacity of j；CLiExpression electric pressure is i
Unit length circuit cost；CTjRepresent the unit capacity transformer station cost that electric pressure is j；
4) according to step 2) in the electrical network Evolution Simulation result that obtains, power grid cascading fault is simulated, obtains some keys
When discontinuity surface on power grid cascading fault load loss information；It specifically includes：
1. choose electrical network evolutionary process in some material time sections, with selected when discontinuity surface electrical network as object of study,
Carry out power grid cascading fault simulation one by one；
2. to the electrical network under specific run mode, using improve OPA blackout model, apply i weight primary fault n times, wherein i=1,
2,…imax, imaxFor primary fault highest tuple；Electrical network under each heavy primary fault is carried out with the fast dynamic analog of cascading failure, system
The load loss situation leading to after counting all cascading failures, is designated as yi1,yi2,…,yiN, and find out yi1,yi2,…,yiNIn
Big value, is designated as ymax：
ymax=max (yi1,yi2,…,yiN)；
To whole material time section repeat steps 2., and preserve load loss information 3.；
5) according to step 1) in the historical statistical data for power network development cost calculation collected and step 4) in the electricity that obtains
The load loss information of net cascading failure, calculates to grid power blackout loss cost, obtains the total loss of outage of electrical network evolution and becomes
This L is：
L=∑ Lm,
In formula, LmFor the grid power blackout cost in the period,
In formula, i represents generation i weight primary fault, i=1,2 ... imax, imaxFor primary fault highest tuple, n represents corresponding electrical network
The number of middle power equipment, TmExpression power failure scale is ymaxWhen persistent period, D represent specific load loss caused by stopping
Electric cost, p is the probability of malfunction of individual equipment in each period, the number of times that N simulates for cascading failure, yijFor i weight primary fault
The load loss amount that lower jth time fault leads to；
Grid power blackout loss cost is calculated, it specifically includes following steps：
1. electrical network evolution overall process is divided into m period, each period is all closed with one selected in electrical network evolutionary process
During key, discontinuity surface is corresponding；
2. according to equipment year number of stoppages PeWith evolution total duration Tall, the probability of malfunction p calculating individual equipment in each period is：
P=PeTall/m；
3. the probability of malfunction p of individual equipment in each period 2. being obtained according to step, calculates the grid power blackout in the period
Cost LmFor：
In formula, i represents generation i weight primary fault, i=1,2 ... imax, imaxFor primary fault highest tuple, n represents corresponding electrical network
The number of middle power equipment, TmExpression power failure scale is ymaxWhen persistent period, D represent specific load loss caused by stopping
Electric cost, p is the probability of malfunction of individual equipment in each period, the number of times that N simulates for cascading failure, yijFor i weight primary fault
The load loss amount that lower jth time fault leads to；
4. the grid power blackout cost L in the period 3. being obtained according to stepm, it is calculated the total loss of outage of electrical network evolution and become
This L is：
L=∑ Lm；
6) load income I is supplied according to power grid construction cost W, grid power blackout loss cost L and increasing, power network development cost Z is carried out
Calculate, power network development cost Z is：
Z=W+L-I,
In formula, increasing for load income I is：I=η × E × Load × Time, Load represent that increasing supplies loading, and Time represents that increasing supplies
Duration of load application, E represents that unit increases and supplies load income, η represents the coefficient of load utilization；
7) according to calculated power network development cost Z, power network development is estimated；Change in power network development conditions
Evolution Simulation control parameter, the power network development being calculated according to power network development cost Z under different Evolution Simulation control parameters becomes
This value；Under the surely corresponding development speed of power network development value at cost more lower assessment, power network development is more reasonable；According to power network development cost with drill
Change the relation between simulation control parameter, determine more reasonably power network development mode.
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