CN106327018B - A kind of dynamic management approach of water resources development and utilization control red line - Google Patents
A kind of dynamic management approach of water resources development and utilization control red line Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of dynamic management approach of water resources development and utilization control red line, the following steps are included: carrying out clustering to history diameter flow data, determine cluster belonging to current month runoff, in different water frequency water total amount Raw performances library, choose the water total amount Raw performance under the corresponding water frequency of cluster belonging to current month runoff, the initial water index as current month；Using sequential decision method, after current month, according to the practical runoff of current month and history diameter flow data, forecasts the runoff of lower January, determine the initial water index of lower January；The initial water index of current month and actual used water amount are made the profit margin that difference obtains to postpone to the lower January, are added with the initial water index of lower January, the final forecast water total amount Con trolling index as the lower January.The present invention effectively improves the adaptability and binding character of water resources development and utilization control red line during water resources management, has very high practical value.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to water resources management fields, and in particular to a kind of dynamic management of water resources development and utilization control red line
Method.
Background technique
Water resources development and utilization control red line is the important composition of most stringent water resources management system, and current water resource is opened
Hair reflects the constraint under many years average condition to water total amount using control red line, is directed to the water frequency that is averaged for many years
Situation, the adaptive management of water resources development and utilization control red line and water total amount Con trolling index are calculated in different water frequencies
Research is the research hotspot in current water resources management, and carries out the Scientific And Technical demand of most stringent water resources management system.
In current practice, for different water frequencies, in the execution and examination of water resources development and utilization control red line
In the process, the major measure taken is to control red line to the water resources development and utilization for representing many years average level to be adjusted, and is used
Water total amount index adjusted examines current water of taking.However, from the binding character for taking water behavior to user
It,, can only if there is no Runoff Forecast measure even if setting the water total amount Con trolling index under different water frequencies for upper
Water total amount will be examined in the end of the year, the binding character for taking water utilizing process actually occurred for the year is extremely limited, water is caused to provide
The adaptability and binding character of source development and utilization control red line substantially reduce.
In view of this, being badly in need of improving adaptability peace treaty of water resources development and utilization control red line during water resources management
Shu Xing.
Summary of the invention
The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to how effectively improve water resources development and utilization control red line to provide in water
Adaptability and restrictive problem during source control.
In order to solve the above-mentioned technical problem, the technical scheme adopted by the invention is that providing a kind of water resources development and utilization control
The dynamic management approach of red line processed, comprising the following steps:
Clustering is carried out to history diameter flow data, and determines cluster belonging to current month runoff, in different water frequencies
In rate water total amount Raw performance library, the water total amount chosen under the corresponding water frequency of cluster belonging to current month runoff is initial
Index, the initial water index as current month；
Using sequential decision method, after current month, according to the practical runoff of current month and history diameter fluxion
According to forecasting the runoff of lower January, and determine the initial water index of lower January；
The initial water index of current month and actual used water amount are made the profit margin that difference obtains to postpone to the lower January, with
The initial water index of lower January is added, the final forecast water total amount Con trolling index as the lower January.
In the above-mentioned technical solutions, clustering is carried out to history diameter flow data using Fuzzy c-Means Clustering Algorithm, it is each poly-
Class forms cluster centre.
In the above-mentioned technical solutions, on the basis of the cluster centre, using the method for correlation analysis month by month, benefit
With following formula determine the current month runoff belonging to the corresponding water frequency of cluster:
In formula, X is actual measurement history runoff process, and Y is runoff process of each cluster to current month, and n is to use
The month number of history runoff, n=4；
By calculating the related coefficient of history runoff process and each cluster, according to the maximum cluster determination of related coefficient
Water frequency belonging to current month runoff.
In the above-mentioned technical solutions, the determination in the different water frequency water total amount Raw performances library in forecast time
Process the following steps are included:
Based on water resource allocation, according to the Regulation capacity of reservoir in region, horizontal water, different water frequencies and institute are needed
The corresponding water frequency of cluster belonging to current month runoff is stated, the selection pair in typical water frequency water total amount Con trolling index library
The water total amount Con trolling index under water frequency is answered, the water total amount Raw performance as the current month.
In the above-mentioned technical solutions, after the current month, according to the reality of current month entry and exit section
Measurement of discharge utilizes the actual used water amount of current month described in the water circulation faults technique check controlled towards water total amount.
In the above-mentioned technical solutions, the cluster includes high flow year, normal flow year, hemiplegia year and special withered year.
In the above-mentioned technical solutions, the current month is when forecasting the starting month in time, at the beginning of the current month
Beginning target water is the final forecast water total amount Con trolling index of the current month.
The present invention is on the basis of runoff fuzzy clustering forecast and water frequency are forecast, in conjunction with uncertain dynamic system
Study on Decision-making Method for Optimization checks each moon actual used water amount to initial water month by month by establishing water frequency forecasting model month by month
Index carries out rolling amendment, realizes the sequential decision of water total amount Con trolling index month by month under the two-way constraint of forecast plus review,
The elastic management of water total amount Con trolling index month by month is realized, water resource can be effectively improved during water resources management and opened
Hair has very high practical value using the adaptability and binding character of control red line.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the dynamic management approach process that a kind of water resources development and utilization provided in an embodiment of the present invention controls red line
Figure；
Fig. 2 is concrete methods of realizing flow chart provided in an embodiment of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
Red line is controlled in the adaptive management problem of different water frequencies for water resources development and utilization, and the present invention provides water
Source development and utilization control red line management process be generalized as sequential decision process, embody Water Management System dynamic,
The randomness of Water Management System subsequent period and the sequential type of decision, specifically, the present invention is pre- in runoff fuzzy clustering
Respond with and the forecast of water frequency on the basis of, in conjunction with uncertain dynamic system Study on Decision-making Method for Optimization, by establishing water month by month
Frequency forecasting model checks each moon actual used water amount and carries out rolling amendment to initial water index month by month, realizes forecast and adds
The sequential decision of water total amount Con trolling index month by month, realizes the bullet of water total amount Con trolling index month by month under the two-way constraint of review
Property management, can be effectively improved during water resources management water resources development and utilization control red line adaptability and constraint
Property, there is very high practical value.
The present invention is described in detail with specific embodiment with reference to the accompanying drawings of the specification.
The embodiment of the invention provides a kind of dynamic management approach of water resources development and utilization control red line, as shown in Figure 1,
Specifically includes the following steps:
S1, clustering is carried out to history diameter flow data, and determine cluster belonging to current month runoff, in different waters
In frequency water total amount Raw performance library, at the beginning of choosing the water total amount under the corresponding water frequency of cluster belonging to current month runoff
Beginning index, the initial water index as current month.
S2, using sequential decision method, after current month, according to the practical runoff and history runoff of current month
Data forecast the runoff of lower January, and determine the initial water index of lower January.
S3, the profit margin that the initial water index of current month and actual used water amount work difference obtain was postponed to lower January
Part, it is added with the initial water index of lower January, the final forecast water total amount Con trolling index as the lower January.
In above-mentioned steps S1, clustering is carried out to history diameter flow data using Fuzzy c-Means Clustering Algorithm, by history
Diameter flow data is divided into four classes, the respectively cluster centre of high flow year, normal flow year, hemiplegia year and special four clusters of withered year month by month,
For judging water frequency belonging to the runoff in the following month, since runoff clusters forecast needs last four from last year
Month start, so Fuzzy c-Means Clustering Algorithm is the December from the September of previous year to current year, after algorithmic statement, obtains such as table
Cluster centre shown in 1.
1. cluster centre of table.
On the basis of cluster centre, using the method for correlation analysis month by month, determined using following formula current
The corresponding water frequency of cluster belonging to month runoff:
In formula, X is actual measurement history runoff process, and Y is runoff process of each cluster to current month, and n is to use
The month number of history runoff, this programme use history runoff month number for 4, so n=4 in formula；By calculating history
Runoff process and four cluster related coefficients, according to related coefficient it is maximum cluster come determine belonging to current month runoff come
Water frequency.
The determination process in the different water frequency water total amount Raw performances library in forecast time is the following steps are included: be based on
Water resource allocation according to the Regulation capacity of reservoir in region, needs horizontal water, different water frequencies and current month runoff institute
Belong to and cluster corresponding water frequency, the use under corresponding water frequency is chosen in typical water frequency water total amount Con trolling index library
Water inventory Con trolling index, the water total amount Raw performance as current month.
Current year different water frequency water total amount Raw performances library is as shown in table 2, which is used under current year watering condition,
Determine the water total amount Raw performance month by month of different water frequencies.Consider that water resources development and utilization control red line is a kind of binding character
Con trolling index, so no longer individually setting the water resources development and utilization of high flow year in the case where abundance of water time water resource is sufficient
Red line is controlled, and uses the water resources development and utilization control red line of normal flow year as constraint.
The different water frequency water total amount Raw performances of table 2. library.
| Month | Normal flow year | 75% | 95% |
| January | 2.20 | 2.38 | 2.07 |
| 2 months | 2.20 | 2.38 | 2.07 |
| March | 2.64 | 2.85 | 2.48 |
| April | 3.08 | 3.33 | 2.90 |
| May | 3.52 | 3.80 | 3.31 |
| June | 3.96 | 4.28 | 3.72 |
| July | 3.96 | 4.28 | 3.72 |
| August | 3.96 | 4.28 | 3.72 |
| September | 3.52 | 3.80 | 3.31 |
| October | 3.08 | 3.33 | 2.90 |
| November | 2.64 | 2.85 | 2.48 |
| December | 2.20 | 2.38 | 2.07 |
In above-mentioned steps S3, after current month, according to the measured discharge of current month entry and exit section, utilize
The actual used water amount of water circulation faults technique check current month towards water total amount control, calculates the initial use of current month
Water index and actual used water amount make the profit margin that difference obtains, and profit margin are postponed to the lower January, and initial with the lower January
Target water is added to obtain the final forecast water total amount Con trolling index of lower January, as shown in table 3, pre- for water frequency month by month
Report, initial water index, actual used water amount and the rolling amendment result for forecasting water total amount Con trolling index.
Table 3. water frequency forecast, initial water index, actual used water amount and forecast water total amount Con trolling index month by month
Rolling amendment result.
From table 3 it can be seen that forecast water total amount Con trolling index is with the initial water determining according to the forecast of water frequency
The generation of index and actual used water amount and change, actual used water amount is less than initial water index before July, so final
Forecast water total amount Con trolling index is constantly added with profit margin and is increased, and larger in later period water consumption and more than initial water
The period of index has also ensured that current year water consumption is in total with water due to constantly correcting to forecast water total amount Con trolling index
In the range of amount Con trolling index.
Now the implementation method of this programme is illustrated, as shown in Fig. 2, specifically includes the following steps:
S101, using the diameter flow data in previous year 9,10,11 and December as primary data.
S102, the runoff for forecasting January current year, using Fuzzy c-Means Clustering Algorithm to 9,10,11 and the runoff in December
Data carry out clustering, obtain cluster centre.
S103, on the basis of cluster centre, using the method for correlation analysis month by month, determine runoff in January current year
It is affiliated to cluster corresponding water frequency.
S104, January current year under corresponding water frequency is selected in different water frequency water total amount Raw performances library
Water total amount Raw performance.
S105, the water total amount Raw performance in corresponding water frequency January lower current year is referred to as the initial water in January
Mark.
S106, after January current year, according to the practical runoff in January, in conjunction with previous year 10,11, diameter in December
Flow data, the runoff in 2 month of rail vehicle roller test-rig, and determining 2 month initial water index.
S107, simultaneously according to initial water index in January (i.e. the final forecast water total amount Con trolling index in January) and 1
Difference between month actual used water amount obtains the profit margin in January.
S108, the profit margin in January was postponed to 2 months, and with 2 month initial water index be added, as 2 months
Final forecast water total amount Con trolling index.
Later and so on, after each month, determine the forecast water total amount Con trolling index in next month.
This programme utilizes the sequence for checking the time-histories rolling amendment of two-way constraint with entry and exit section based on the forecast of runoff cluster
Decision-making technique is passed through, according to history runoff observational data and the monitoring data of actual used water amount, rolls and determines in year month by month pre-
Water total amount Con trolling index is reported, the forecast of runoff cluster can make precognition to of that month water frequency in certain confidence level, be
Realize the basis that water total amount controls under different water frequencies, the Water Resources Allocation technology based on water consumption control then can be to typical case
Water frequency water total amount Con trolling index library carries out index decomposition, forms different water frequency water total amount Raw performances library, will
It is combined with runoff cluster forecast, improves the adaptability of water resources development and utilization control red line, it is made to be not limited to year
The operation index at end, but in every month in real time with having played effect in the constraint of water behavior.
The present invention is not limited to above-mentioned preferred forms, anyone structure change made under the inspiration of the present invention,
The technical schemes that are same or similar to the present invention are fallen within the scope of protection of the present invention.
Claims (1)
1. a kind of dynamic management approach of water resources development and utilization control red line, which comprises the following steps:
Clustering is carried out to history diameter flow data using Fuzzy c-Means Clustering Algorithm, diameter flow data is divided into month by month by history
Four four classes, respectively high flow year, normal flow year, hemiplegia year and special withered year cluster centres clustered；
On the basis of the cluster centre, using the method for correlation analysis month by month, calculates history runoff process and gather with each
The related coefficient of class determines water frequency belonging to current month runoff according to the maximum cluster of related coefficient, and calculation formula is such as
Under:
In formula, X is actual measurement history runoff process, and Y is runoff process of each cluster to current month, and n is the history used
The month number of runoff, n=4；
Based on water resource allocation, according to the Regulation capacity of reservoir in region, needs horizontal water, different water frequencies and described work as
The corresponding water frequency of cluster belonging to preceding month runoff is chosen corresponding next in typical water frequency water total amount Con trolling index library
Water total amount Con trolling index under water frequency, the water total amount Raw performance as the current month；
Using sequential decision method, after current month, according to the practical runoff of current month and history diameter flow data, in advance
The runoff of lower January is reported, and determines the initial water index of lower January；
The initial water index of current month and actual used water amount are made the profit margin that difference obtains to postpone to the lower January, and it is next
The initial water index in month is added, the final forecast water total amount Con trolling index as the lower January；
After the current month, according to the measured discharge of current month entry and exit section, using towards total with water
Measure the actual used water amount of current month described in the water circulation faults technique check of control；
The current month is when forecasting the starting month in time, and the initial water index of the current month is the current moon
The final forecast water total amount Con trolling index of part.
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