CN106229972B - 一种基于多气象源集成并分段建模的风电功率预测方法 - Google Patents
一种基于多气象源集成并分段建模的风电功率预测方法 Download PDFInfo
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- CN106229972B CN106229972B CN201610677972.3A CN201610677972A CN106229972B CN 106229972 B CN106229972 B CN 106229972B CN 201610677972 A CN201610677972 A CN 201610677972A CN 106229972 B CN106229972 B CN 106229972B
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- 238000013277 forecasting method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 15
- 230000011218 segmentation Effects 0.000 title claims abstract description 13
- 238000005259 measurement Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 37
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 11
- 238000013528 artificial neural network Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 10
- 230000002159 abnormal effect Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 8
- 230000005611 electricity Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 5
- 238000004458 analytical method Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 4
- 239000011159 matrix material Substances 0.000 claims description 12
- 230000002123 temporal effect Effects 0.000 claims description 6
- 238000012549 training Methods 0.000 claims description 6
- 238000012098 association analyses Methods 0.000 claims description 4
- 238000013480 data collection Methods 0.000 claims description 4
- 210000005036 nerve Anatomy 0.000 claims 1
- 238000012216 screening Methods 0.000 abstract 1
- 230000005684 electric field Effects 0.000 description 2
- 230000004927 fusion Effects 0.000 description 2
- 238000004088 simulation Methods 0.000 description 2
- 230000000052 comparative effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000008030 elimination Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000003379 elimination reaction Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000005516 engineering process Methods 0.000 description 1
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Classifications
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
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- H02J3/386—
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J2203/00—Indexing scheme relating to details of circuit arrangements for AC mains or AC distribution networks
- H02J2203/20—Simulating, e g planning, reliability check, modelling or computer assisted design [CAD]
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A30/00—Adapting or protecting infrastructure or their operation
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02E—REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS [GHG] EMISSIONS, RELATED TO ENERGY GENERATION, TRANSMISSION OR DISTRIBUTION
- Y02E10/00—Energy generation through renewable energy sources
- Y02E10/70—Wind energy
- Y02E10/76—Power conversion electric or electronic aspects
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- Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
- Power Engineering (AREA)
- Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)
Abstract
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CN201610677972.3A CN106229972B (zh) | 2016-08-16 | 2016-08-16 | 一种基于多气象源集成并分段建模的风电功率预测方法 |
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CN201610677972.3A CN106229972B (zh) | 2016-08-16 | 2016-08-16 | 一种基于多气象源集成并分段建模的风电功率预测方法 |
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CN106229972A CN106229972A (zh) | 2016-12-14 |
CN106229972B true CN106229972B (zh) | 2018-12-04 |
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Families Citing this family (9)
Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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CN106897481B (zh) * | 2017-01-03 | 2020-06-26 | 国能日新科技股份有限公司 | 利用空间多点功率预测特征的风功率集成预测方法及装置 |
CN106897790B (zh) * | 2017-01-03 | 2021-01-12 | 国能日新科技股份有限公司 | 一种选择最优预报格点的风功率预测方法及装置 |
CN107124003B (zh) * | 2017-04-28 | 2020-09-15 | 北京天诚同创电气有限公司 | 风力发电场风能预测方法和设备 |
CN107992970B (zh) * | 2017-12-06 | 2021-10-26 | 北京金风慧能技术有限公司 | 风力发电机组的输出功率预测方法和设备 |
CN108009689A (zh) * | 2017-12-22 | 2018-05-08 | 北京金风慧能技术有限公司 | 风速修正模型训练、风速修正方法、装置及风力发电机组 |
CN110874665B (zh) * | 2018-08-31 | 2022-07-08 | 北京金风科创风电设备有限公司 | 用于风力发电机组的控制装置和方法 |
CN112613155B (zh) * | 2020-02-06 | 2024-04-12 | 北京金风慧能技术有限公司 | 风力发电机组理论功率的确定方法、装置及设备 |
CN112613632A (zh) * | 2020-03-31 | 2021-04-06 | 北京金风慧能技术有限公司 | 功率预测模型建立方法、预测方法、装置及电子设备 |
CN112417734B (zh) * | 2020-11-25 | 2024-03-15 | 国能日新科技股份有限公司 | 一种基于风电场地理信息的风速订正方法及装置 |
Citations (5)
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CN102496927A (zh) * | 2011-12-16 | 2012-06-13 | 中国电力科学研究院 | 基于误差统计修正的风电场功率预测方法 |
CN102545211A (zh) * | 2011-12-21 | 2012-07-04 | 西安交通大学 | 一种通用的用于风电功率预测的数据预处理装置及方法 |
CN102570453A (zh) * | 2012-01-06 | 2012-07-11 | 甘肃省电力公司风电技术中心 | 基于多套数值天气预报源的短期风电功率预测方法及系统 |
CN103530508A (zh) * | 2013-09-30 | 2014-01-22 | 国家电网公司 | 一种建立风速功率转换概率模型的方法 |
JP2016136001A (ja) * | 2015-01-23 | 2016-07-28 | 中国電力株式会社 | 予測装置 |
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- 2016-08-16 CN CN201610677972.3A patent/CN106229972B/zh active Active
Patent Citations (5)
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CN102496927A (zh) * | 2011-12-16 | 2012-06-13 | 中国电力科学研究院 | 基于误差统计修正的风电场功率预测方法 |
CN102545211A (zh) * | 2011-12-21 | 2012-07-04 | 西安交通大学 | 一种通用的用于风电功率预测的数据预处理装置及方法 |
CN102570453A (zh) * | 2012-01-06 | 2012-07-11 | 甘肃省电力公司风电技术中心 | 基于多套数值天气预报源的短期风电功率预测方法及系统 |
CN103530508A (zh) * | 2013-09-30 | 2014-01-22 | 国家电网公司 | 一种建立风速功率转换概率模型的方法 |
JP2016136001A (ja) * | 2015-01-23 | 2016-07-28 | 中国電力株式会社 | 予測装置 |
Non-Patent Citations (1)
Title |
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基于数值天气预报NWP修正的BP神经网络风电功率短期预测研究;蔡祯祺;《中国优秀硕士学位论文全文数据库工程科技Ⅱ辑》;20160131;第C042-269页 * |
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Denomination of invention: Power prediction method for wind power based on integration of multiple meteorological sources and segmented modeling Effective date of registration: 20190404 Granted publication date: 20181204 Pledgee: Zhongguancun Beijing technology financing Company limited by guarantee Pledgor: New energy Polytron Technologies Inc Registration number: 2019990000290 |
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